CN107194537A - A kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system - Google Patents
A kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system Download PDFInfo
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- CN107194537A CN107194537A CN201710240633.3A CN201710240633A CN107194537A CN 107194537 A CN107194537 A CN 107194537A CN 201710240633 A CN201710240633 A CN 201710240633A CN 107194537 A CN107194537 A CN 107194537A
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
Abstract
The present invention relates to risk analysis technology field, a kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system is disclosed, including：System user management module, for User logs in and function of keeping secret；Work selecting module, and selectable analysis module includes individual risk's analysis module and social risk analysis module；Wherein, individual risk's analysis module, is calculated for the analysis that individual risk is worth, and draws overall individual risk's distribution map, is then exported in the form of drawing；Social risk analysis module, the analysis for regional society risk is calculated, and draws out regional society risk map, is then exported in the form of drawing.The present invention can carry out quantitative risk analysis to dangerous source region more than LNG, LNG transports navigation channel, configured for LNG ports area emergency capability, region security planning provides science support with layout work, all have to supervision department's decision-making, security capital and benefit optimization, reduction casualties and property loss etc. and be of great significance.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to risk analysis technology field, more particularly to a kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system.
Background technology
It is alternative energy source important during energy resource structure makes the transition that natural gas is pointed out in " 13 " planning, with great market
Potentiality.Natural gas long-distance transportation is mainly pipe natural gas transport and LNG（Liquefied natural gas）Shipping.But the laying of pipeline
Limited by conditions such as distance, geographical position, soils, so the development of LNG ship fortune is by government and the weight of LNG operation enterprises
Depending on.At present, the LNG receiving stations that the whole world has built up are 150, wherein, the LNG receiving stations that China is runing have 21.I
Jin Wan receiving stations that state has built up, the Zhoushan receiving station built and Rotterdam, NED Gate receiving stations etc. have concurrently medium and small
Type LNG shipping docks, the region that can not be laid to pipeline is realized using middle-size and small-size LNG cargo ships（Such as the riverine waterfront areas in inland）
LNG purpose is conveyed, to expand the coverage rate of natural gas.
Because LNG is big, the inflammable cryogenic liquid of gas liquid ratio, in storage and transport process, it may occur however that vaporous cloud diffusion, fire
The accidents such as calamity, blast, cause serious personal's casualty loss and property loss.The security that port area LNG is loaded and unloaded and LNG is transported
It is the emphasis of relevant departments' concern, to LNG harbours（Harbour particularly containing many dangerous source regions）Carrying out security risk assessment is
It is very necessary.
But China lacks the software available for LNG engineering comprehensive safety evaluations of independent research at present, what is used is soft
Part is the complete packaged products of external safety evaluation software, using above having some limitations.Conventional foreign countries' safety
Risk assessment software includes the SAFETI that TECHNICAL td companies of Britain develop（Software for Assessment of
Flammable, Explosive, Toxic Impact）With PHAST (Process Hazard Analysis Screening
Tool) risk assessment software kit, the RISKCURVES probabilistic risk assessment softwares of Dutch TNO exploitations.Most commonly Norway's ship
Level society（DNV）The Quantitative Risk Evaluation software of exploitation, including SAFETI and LEAK softwares, LEAK softwares are mainly used in calculating various
The frequency that petrochemical plant accident occurs, SAFETI softwares are used for quantitative risk analysis and hazard assessment.These softwares can
Independent risk analysis is carried out to each dangerous matter sources in many dangerous source regions, but does not consider shadow of the Domino effect to Regional Risk
Ring, can not also calculate and draw navigation channel individual risk's distribution map.
A kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system is set up, for dangerous source region more than LNG harbours（Include domino thing
Therefore analysis）Transport channel safe quantitative risk analysis with LNG, can be provided for enterprise or government regulator decision-making according to
According to being optimized for security capital and benefit has highly important reference significance.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the present invention in view of the above-mentioned problems, provide a kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system.According to LNG
The data of many danger source regions and the LNG layouts and each dangerous matter sources for transporting navigation channel calculate the overall risk value in region, carry out
The drafting of region entirety individual risk's distribution map, and analysis result is exported；According to region entirety individual risk distribution map and people
Mouth data carry out the calculating and drawing of social risk, and analysis result is exported, and are that enterprise or supervision department provide decision-making
Foundation, to reach that security capital and benefit are optimized.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions above-mentioned purpose.
A kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system, including：
System user management module, for User logs in and function of keeping secret；
Work selecting module, and for the selection of analysis module, selectable analysis module includes：Individual risk's analysis module and society
Can risk analysis module；
Wherein, individual risk's analysis module, the analysis for dangerous source region more than LNG or individual risk's value in LNG transports navigation channel
Calculate, and draw out overall individual risk's distribution map of many dangerous source regions of LNG, the overall individual risk point in LNG transports navigation channel
Butut, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing；
Social risk analysis module, the analysis for regional society risk is calculated, and draws out regional society risk map, will be drawn
Social risk figure exported in the form of drawing.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned individual risk's analysis module includes many dangerous source region individual risk analyses of LNG
Module and LNG transport navigation channel individual risk's analysis modules, wherein,
The many dangerous source region individual risk's analysis modules of LNG, the analysis meter for individual risk's value of dangerous source region more than LNG
Calculate, and the calculating of domino accident probability and value-at-risk can be carried out, draw out the overall individual risk point of many dangerous source regions of LNG
Butut, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing；
LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's analysis module, and the analysis that individual risk's value in navigation channel is transported for LNG is calculated, and is drawn
Go out overall individual risk's distribution map that LNG transports navigation channel, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing.
As a further improvement, many dangerous source region individual risk's analysis modules of above-mentioned LNG include：
Layout acquisition module, for obtaining the integral layout figure in region, and is shown on individual risk's assay surface, sets simultaneously
Put engineer's scale；
Dangerous matter sources position acquisition module, for obtaining the position of each dangerous matter sources from layout, and stores the seat of each dangerous matter sources
Mark, and dangerous matter sources number；
Dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting module, the accident pattern for determining and storing each dangerous matter sources, accident pattern includes pipe
Line leakage accident, tank leak accident, ship leakage accident；
Dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining leakage parameters, and can be according in dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting module
The leakage parameters obtained in the accident pattern and this module of determination, inquire about and determine the accident probability of dangerous matter sources；
Leakage point parameter setting module, the environmental conditions parameter for inputting and storing each leakage point；
Value-at-risk setting module, for inputting and storing calculative risk value data；
Dangerous matter sources parameter module is changed, for changing accident pattern, accident probability, leakage point parameter, value-at-risk, and by whole ginsengs
Number is stored again；
Loop control module, for the sequential control of dangerous matter sources in many dangerous matter sources cycle calculations, increases in loop calculation, subtracts danger
Changed in dangerous source, loop calculation in dangerous matter sources coordinate, loop calculation and reacquire dangerous matter sources；
Individual risk's separate calculation module, the data of each dangerous matter sources for being obtained according to above-mentioned module calculate the whole of region
Body individual risk is worth, drawing area entirety individual risk's distribution map；
Domino accident risk computing module, the data for each dangerous matter sources according to acquisition calculate region domino accident
The overall individual risk value of probability of happening and zoning, individual risk's distribution map that drawing area is analyzed containing domino；
Individual risk's distribution map output module, for region individual risk's distribution map to be exported in the form of drawing.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned LNG transport navigation channel individual risk's analysis modules include described layout and obtained
Module, dangerous matter sources position acquisition module, dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting module, dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module, leakage point
Parameter setting module, value-at-risk setting module, modification dangerous matter sources parameter module, loop control module, individual risk's distribution map are defeated
Go out module；
Additionally include,
LNG transports navigation channel damage sequence computing module, for calculating damage sequence, damage sequence according to the data of each dangerous matter sources
Calculate and calculating is programmed to accident mathematical modeling using Fortran language, and be packaged into dynamic link library；
LNG transport navigation channel individual risk value computing modules, for the data according to each dangerous matter sources and call damage sequence to calculate
Model calculates individual risk's value；
LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's isopleth graphics module, based on according to navigation channel information and individual risk's computing module
Calculate result and draw the overall risk isopleth in navigation channel；
LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's isopleth display control module, the display number for controlling navigation channel overall risk isopleth
Amount.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned layout acquisition module includes：
Layout load-on module, for choosing layout from computer the machine and being shown in individual risk's assay surface；
Layout display control module, shows for display control of the layout on assay surface, including the full figure of layout
Control, amplification, the diminution control of layout, and the measurement distance operation on layout；
It is laid out drawing scale determining module, the engineer's scale for layout to be calculated and be shown；
Layout module is reloaded, for reacquiring layout.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module includes：
Pipeline leakage accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining blow-by tube caliber and leak aperture in pipeline leakage accident, and
According to the data call access databases of acquisition, accident probability is obtained；
Tank leak accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining the reservoir type leaked in tank leak accident, tank leak class
Type, flame pattern, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
The true enquiry module of ship leakage accident probability, for obtaining blow-by tube caliber and leak hole in ship leakage accident
Footpath, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
Above-mentioned access databases store leakage parameters and corresponding accident probability.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned leakage point parameter setting module includes：
Pipeline leakage accident leakage point parameter setting module, for obtaining and storing leakage bore dia, operation temperature, operation pressure
Power, safe radiation value；
Tank leak accident leakage point parameter setting module, including the fiery parameter setting module in storage tank pond and storage tank fireball parameter setting
Module；Wherein the fiery parameter setting module in storage tank pond be used to setting and store cofferdam shape, it is cofferdam size, wind speed, atmospheric temperature, big
Gas relative humidity, safe radiation value, tank volume；Storage tank fireball parameter setting module is for setting and storing wind speed, big temperature
Degree, relative humidity of atomsphere, air mass quality, safe radiation value；
Ship leakage accident leakage point parameter setting module, for set and store wind speed, atmospheric temperature, relative humidity of atomsphere,
Leak mass flow, safe radiation value.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned individual risk's separate calculation module includes：
Damage sequence computing module, for calculating damage sequence according to the data of each dangerous matter sources, damage sequence, which is calculated, to be used
Fortran language is programmed calculating to accident mathematical modeling, and is packaged into dynamic link library；Including three kinds of accident mathematical modulos
Type：Jet bubble reactor computation model, the fiery computation model in pond, fireball computation model；Wherein jet bubble reactor computation model is used for pipeline leakage thing
Therefore Consequence calculation, pond fire computation model is for the fiery damage sequence calculating in tank leak pond and ship leakage accident Consequence calculation, fire
Ball computation model is calculated for tank leak fireball damage sequence；
Individual risk is worth computing module, for the data according to each dangerous matter sources and to call damage sequence computation model to calculate personal
Value-at-risk；
Individual risk's isopleth display module, for individual risk to be worth to the result of calculation of computing module with the side of risk isopleth
Formula is drawn on layout, and the intersection of identical individual risk's value is merged, and the optional shade that carries out is shown.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned domino accident risk computing module includes：
Module is chosen in initial incident source, and initial incident source is used as choosing a dangerous matter sources；
Domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable module, occurs whether other dangerous matter sources in time domain occur in initial incident source for calculating
Accident and occurs the probability of accident, domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable is entered using Fortran language to accident probability mathematical modeling
Row program calculation, and it is packaged into dynamic link library；
Module is chosen in second grade accident source, for the result of calculation according to domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable module, choose a meeting with
The dangerous matter sources that domino accident occurs for initial incident source are used as second grade accident source；
Value-at-risk setting module, for inputting and storing calculative risk value data；
Loop control module is chosen, the loop control calculated is chosen for initial incident source, second grade accident source；
Domino damage sequence computing module, damage sequence calculating, damage sequence are carried out for the data according to two dangerous matter sources
Calculate and calculating is programmed to domino accident mathematical modeling using Fortran language, and be packaged into dynamic link library；
Domino individual risk be worth computing module, for the data according to two dangerous matter sources and call domino damage sequence calculate
Model calculates individual risk's value；
Domino individual risk's isopleth display module, the result of calculation of domino individual risk's computing module is equivalent with risk
The mode of line is drawn on layout, and the intersection of identical individual risk's value is merged, and can carry out the moon
Shadow is shown.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned social risk analysis module includes:
Individual risk's distribution map acquisition module, individual risk's distribution for obtaining dangerous source region or LNG transport navigation channel more than LNG
Figure, and be shown on social risk calculating interface；
Acceptable risk criteria chooses module, for choosing Acceptable risk criteria, selective standard include IMO standards and
NF-PA59A standards；
Data acquisition module, the number that there is hourage for inputting and storing value-at-risk, personnel's number in risk isopleth, personnel
According to；
Data modification module, the data for changing data acquisition module input；
Graphics module, the data obtained for the Acceptable risk criteria according to acquisition and data acquisition module carry out social risk
Calculating draw, graphics module uses MATLAB program calculations, and is packaged into dynamic link library；
Drawing display control module, color and form, the drawing title of the Points And lines for changing drawing, and with corresponding form
It is shown on drawing；
Social risk assessment result output module, for social risk assessment result to be exported in the form of drawing.
The present invention mainly has the advantages that compared with prior art：By dangerous source region more than the LNG of acquisition or
The various data such as the layout in LNG transports navigation channel and position, leakage parameters, the environmental conditions parameter of each dangerous matter sources, calculate,
Accident probability is inquired about, calculating, the individual risk's value analysis of progress damage sequence are calculated, the independent individual of many dangerous matter sources of drawing area
Risk distribution figure, many dangerous matter sources domino accident individual risk distribution maps in region, LNG transport navigation channel individual risk's distribution maps, and
Drawing can be exported；Social risk value and drawing area are calculated by individual risk's distribution map of acquisition and the demographic data of input
Social risk figure, and drawing can be exported.
It is that LNG ports area emergency capability is matched somebody with somebody by transporting the quantitative risk analysis in navigation channel to dangerous source region, LNG more than LNG
Put, region security planning is supported with layout work there is provided science, to enterprise or government regulator decision-making, security capital and effect
Benefit, which optimizes, formulate corresponding measure reduces casualties and property loss etc. and all has and be of great significance.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the functional module schematic block diagram of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the schematic block diagram of domino accident risk computing module in the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.Accompanying drawing being given for example only property explanation, it is impossible to be interpreted as to this
The limitation of patent.
For more succinct explanation the present embodiment, some in accompanying drawing or explanation well known to a person skilled in the art but with this
The incoherent parts of main contents of creation can have been omitted.In addition for ease of statement, some parts have province in accompanying drawing
Slightly, zoom in or out, but do not represent the size or entire infrastructure of actual product.
Embodiment：As shown in figure 1, a kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system, including：
First, system user management module, for User logs in and function of keeping secret；
2nd, work selecting module, and for the selection of analysis module, selectable analysis module includes：
（One）Individual risk's analysis module, for dangerous source region more than LNG or the analysis meter of individual risk's value in LNG transports navigation channel
Calculate, and draw out overall individual risk's distribution map of many dangerous source regions of LNG, the overall individual risk distribution in LNG transports navigation channel
Figure, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing；
（Two）Social risk analysis module, the analysis for regional society risk is calculated, and draws out regional society risk map, will
The social risk figure of drafting is exported in the form of drawing.
Above-mentioned individual risk's analysis module includes：
1st, many dangerous source region individual risk's analysis modules of LNG, the analysis meter for individual risk's value of dangerous source region more than LNG
Calculate, and the calculating of domino accident probability and value-at-risk can be carried out, draw out the overall individual risk point of many dangerous source regions of LNG
Butut, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing；
2nd, LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's analysis module, and the analysis that individual risk's value in navigation channel is transported for LNG is calculated, and is painted
Overall individual risk's distribution map that LNG transports navigation channel is made, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing.
Above-mentioned LNG is more, and dangerous source region individual risk's analysis module includes：
1.1st, layout acquisition module, for obtaining the integral layout figure in region, and is shown on individual risk's assay surface, together
When Set scale chi；
1.2nd, dangerous matter sources position acquisition module, for obtaining the position of each dangerous matter sources from layout, and stores each dangerous matter sources
Coordinate, and dangerous matter sources number；
1.3rd, dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting module, the accident pattern for determining and storing each dangerous matter sources, accident pattern bag
Include pipeline leakage accident, tank leak accident, ship leakage accident；
1.4th, dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining leakage parameters, and can select mould according to dangerous matter sources accident pattern
The leakage parameters obtained in the accident pattern and this module that are determined in block, inquire about and determine the accident probability of dangerous matter sources；
1.5th, leakage point parameter setting module, the environmental conditions parameter for inputting and storing each leakage point；
1.6th, value-at-risk setting module, for inputting and storing calculative risk value data；
1.7th, dangerous matter sources parameter module is changed, for changing accident pattern, accident probability, leakage point parameter, value-at-risk, and will be complete
Portion's parameter is stored again；
1.8th, loop control module, for the sequential control of dangerous matter sources in many dangerous matter sources cycle calculations, increase in loop calculation,
Subtract in dangerous matter sources, loop calculation and reacquire dangerous matter sources in modification dangerous matter sources coordinate, loop calculation；
1.9th, individual risk's separate calculation module, the data of each dangerous matter sources for being obtained according to above-mentioned module calculate region
Overall individual risk value, drawing area entirety individual risk distribution map；
1.10th, domino accident risk computing module, the data for each dangerous matter sources according to acquisition calculate many meters of region
The overall individual risk value of promise contingency occurrence probability and zoning, individual risk's distribution that drawing area is analyzed containing domino
Figure；
1.11st, individual risk's distribution map output module, for region individual risk's distribution map to be exported in the form of drawing.
Above-mentioned LNG transport navigation channel individual risk's analysis modules share many dangerous source region individual risk's analysis modules of LNG
In：1.1 layout acquisition modules, 1.2 dangerous matter sources position acquisition modules, 1.3 dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting modules, 1.4 danger
Dangerous source accident probability enquiry module, 1.5 leakage point parameter setting modules, 1.6 value-at-risk setting modules, 1.7 modification dangerous matter sources ginsengs
Digital-to-analogue block, 1.8 loop control modules, 1.11 individual risk's distribution map output modules；
In addition LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's analysis module and also included：
2.10th, LNG transports navigation channel damage sequence computing module, for calculating damage sequence, thing according to the data of each dangerous matter sources
Therefore Consequence calculation is programmed calculating using Fortran language to accident mathematical modeling, and it is packaged into dynamic link library；
2.11st, LNG transports navigation channel individual risk value computing module, for the data according to each dangerous matter sources and calls damage sequence
Computation model calculates individual risk's value；
2.12nd, LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's isopleth graphics module, for according to navigation channel information and individual risk's computing module
Result of calculation draw the overall risk isopleth in navigation channel；
2.13rd, LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's isopleth display control module, for controlling the aobvious of navigation channel overall risk isopleth
Registration amount.
Above-mentioned layout acquisition module includes：
1.1.a, layout load-on module, for choosing layout from computer the machine and being shown in individual risk's assay surface
In；
1.1.b, layout display control module, for display control of the layout on assay surface, including layout is complete
Figure display control, amplification, the diminution control of layout, and the measurement distance operation on layout；
1.1.c drawing scale determining module, the engineer's scale for layout to be calculated and be shown, are laid out；
1.1.d layout module, is reloaded, for reacquiring layout.
Above-mentioned dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module includes：
1.4.a, pipeline leakage accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining blow-by tube caliber and leak hole in pipeline leakage accident
Footpath, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
1.4.b, tank leak accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining the reservoir type leaked in tank leak accident, storage tank
Leak type, flame pattern, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
1.4.c, the true enquiry module of ship leakage accident probability, for obtaining blow-by tube caliber and leakage in ship leakage accident
Hole aperture, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
Above-mentioned access databases store leakage parameters and corresponding accident probability.
Above-mentioned leakage point parameter setting module includes：
1.5.a, pipeline leakage accident leakage point parameter setting module, for obtaining and storing leakage bore dia, operation temperature, behaviour
Make pressure, safe radiation value；
1.5.b, tank leak accident leakage point parameter setting module, including the fiery parameter setting module in storage tank pond and storage tank fireball ginseng
Number setting module；Wherein the fiery parameter setting module in storage tank pond be used to setting and store cofferdam shape, cofferdam size, wind speed, air
Temperature, relative humidity of atomsphere, safe radiation value, tank volume；Storage tank fireball parameter setting module be used for set and store wind speed,
Atmospheric temperature, relative humidity of atomsphere, air mass quality, safe radiation value；
1.5.c, ship leakage accident leakage point parameter setting module is relative for setting and storing wind speed, atmospheric temperature, air
Humidity, leakage mass flow, safe radiation value.
Above-mentioned individual risk's separate calculation module includes：
1.9.a, damage sequence computing module, for calculating damage sequence according to the data of each dangerous matter sources, damage sequence is calculated
Calculating is programmed to accident mathematical modeling using Fortran language, and is packaged into dynamic link library；Including three kinds of accident mathematics
Model：Jet bubble reactor computation model, the fiery computation model in pond, fireball computation model；Wherein jet bubble reactor computation model is used for pipeline leakage
Damage sequence is calculated, and pond fire computation model is used for the fiery damage sequence in tank leak pond and calculated and ship leakage accident Consequence calculation,
Fireball computation model is calculated for tank leak fireball damage sequence；
1.9.b, individual risk's value computing module, by the data according to each dangerous matter sources and based on calling damage sequence computation model
Calculate individual risk's value；
1.9.c, individual risk's isopleth display module, it is equivalent with risk for individual risk to be worth into the result of calculation of computing module
The mode of line is drawn on layout, and the intersection of identical individual risk's value is merged, and may be selected to carry out the moon
Shadow is shown.
As shown in Fig. 2 above-mentioned domino accident risk computing module includes：
1.10.a, module is chosen in initial incident source, and initial incident source is used as choosing a dangerous matter sources；
1.10.b, domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable module, occurs other dangerous matter sources in time domain for calculating in initial incident source
Whether occur accident and occur the probability of accident, domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable is using Fortran language to accident probability number
Learn model and be programmed calculating, and be packaged into dynamic link library；
1.10.c, module is chosen in second grade accident source, for the result of calculation according to domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable module, chooses one
The dangerous matter sources that with initial incident source domino accident occurs for individual meeting are used as second grade accident source；
1.10.d, value-at-risk setting module, for inputting and storing calculative risk value data；
1.10.e loop control module, is chosen, the loop control calculated is chosen for initial incident source, second grade accident source；
1.10.f, domino damage sequence computing module, damage sequence calculating, thing are carried out for the data according to two dangerous matter sources
Therefore Consequence calculation is programmed calculating using Fortran language to domino accident mathematical modeling, and it is packaged into dynamic link library；
1.10.g, domino individual risk value computing module, for the data according to two dangerous matter sources and calls domino accident
Consequence calculation model calculates individual risk's value；
1.10.h, domino individual risk isopleth display module, by the result of calculation of domino individual risk's computing module with
The mode of risk isopleth is drawn on layout, and the intersection of identical individual risk's value is merged, and can
Shown with carrying out shade.
Again as shown in figure 1, above-mentioned social risk analysis module includes:
1st, individual risk's distribution map acquisition module, the individual risk point for obtaining dangerous source region or LNG transport navigation channel more than LNG
Butut, and be shown on social risk calculating interface；
2nd, Acceptable risk criteria chooses module, for choosing Acceptable risk criteria, selective standard include IMO standards and
NF-PA59A standards；
3rd, data acquisition module, the number that there is hourage for inputting and storing value-at-risk, personnel's number in risk isopleth, personnel
According to；
4th, data modification module, the data for changing data acquisition module input；
5th, graphics module, the data obtained for the Acceptable risk criteria according to acquisition and data acquisition module carry out social wind
The calculating of danger is drawn, and graphics module uses MATLAB program calculations, and is packaged into dynamic link library；
6th, drawing display control module, color and form, the drawing title of the Points And lines for changing drawing, and with corresponding lattice
Formula is shown on drawing；
7th, social risk assessment result output module, for social risk assessment result to be exported in the form of drawing.
The layout and each dangerous matter sources in dangerous source region or LNG transport navigation channel more than the LNG that the present embodiment passes through acquisition
The various data such as position, leakage parameters, environmental conditions parameter, are calculated, inquiry accident probability, carry out the calculating, individual of damage sequence
The analysis of people's value-at-risk is calculated, independent individual risk's distribution map of many dangerous matter sources of drawing area, many dangerous matter sources domino accidents in region
Individual risk's distribution map, LNG transport navigation channel individual risk's distribution maps, and drawing can be exported；Pass through the individual risk point of acquisition
Butut and the demographic data of input calculate the social risk figure of social risk value and drawing area, and can export drawing.
It is that LNG ports area emergency capability is matched somebody with somebody by transporting the quantitative risk analysis in navigation channel to dangerous source region, LNG more than LNG
Put, region security planning is supported with layout work there is provided science, to enterprise or government regulator decision-making, security capital and effect
Benefit, which optimizes, formulate corresponding measure reduces casualties and property loss etc. and all has and be of great significance.
The specific embodiment of the present invention is these are only, but the design concept of the present invention is not limited thereto, it is all to utilize
The insubstantial modifications that present inventive concept is made to the present invention, each fall within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of LNG port securities risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that including：
System user management module, for User logs in and function of keeping secret；
Work selecting module, and for the selection of analysis module, selectable analysis module includes：Individual risk's analysis module and society
Can risk analysis module；
Wherein, individual risk's analysis module, the analysis for dangerous source region more than LNG or individual risk's value in LNG transports navigation channel
Calculate, and draw out overall individual risk's distribution map of many dangerous source regions of LNG, the overall individual risk point in LNG transports navigation channel
Butut, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing；
Social risk analysis module, the analysis for regional society risk is calculated, and draws out regional society risk map, will be drawn
Social risk figure exported in the form of drawing.
2. LNG port securities risk evaluating system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described individual risk point
Analysing module includes many dangerous source region individual risk analysis modules of LNG and LNG transport navigation channel individual risk's analysis modules, wherein,
The many dangerous source region individual risk's analysis modules of LNG, the analysis meter for individual risk's value of dangerous source region more than LNG
Calculate, and the calculating of domino accident probability and value-at-risk can be carried out, draw out the overall individual risk point of many dangerous source regions of LNG
Butut, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing；
LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's analysis module, and the analysis that individual risk's value in navigation channel is transported for LNG is calculated, and is drawn
Go out overall individual risk's distribution map that LNG transports navigation channel, the individual risk's distribution map drawn out is exported in the form of drawing.
3. LNG port securities risk evaluating system according to claim 2, it is characterised in that many dangerous matter sources of described LNG
Region individual risk's analysis module includes：
Layout acquisition module, for obtaining the integral layout figure in region, and is shown on individual risk's assay surface, sets simultaneously
Put engineer's scale；
Dangerous matter sources position acquisition module, for obtaining the position of each dangerous matter sources from layout, and stores the seat of each dangerous matter sources
Mark, and dangerous matter sources number；
Dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting module, the accident pattern for determining and storing each dangerous matter sources, accident pattern includes pipe
Line leakage accident, tank leak accident, ship leakage accident；
Dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining leakage parameters, and can be according in dangerous matter sources accident pattern selecting module
The leakage parameters obtained in the accident pattern and this module of determination, inquire about and determine the accident probability of dangerous matter sources；
Leakage point parameter setting module, the environmental conditions parameter for inputting and storing each leakage point；
Value-at-risk setting module, for inputting and storing calculative risk value data；
Dangerous matter sources parameter module is changed, for changing accident pattern, accident probability, leakage point parameter, value-at-risk, and by whole ginsengs
Number is stored again；
Loop control module, for the sequential control of dangerous matter sources in many dangerous matter sources cycle calculations, increases in loop calculation, subtracts danger
Changed in dangerous source, loop calculation in dangerous matter sources coordinate, loop calculation and reacquire dangerous matter sources；
Individual risk's separate calculation module, the data of each dangerous matter sources for being obtained according to above-mentioned module calculate the whole of region
Body individual risk is worth, drawing area entirety individual risk's distribution map；
Domino accident risk computing module, the data for each dangerous matter sources according to acquisition calculate region domino accident
The overall individual risk value of probability of happening and zoning, individual risk's distribution map that drawing area is analyzed containing domino；
Individual risk's distribution map output module, for region individual risk's distribution map to be exported in the form of drawing.
4. LNG port securities risk evaluating system according to claim 3, it is characterised in that described LNG transports navigation channel
Individual risk's analysis module includes described layout acquisition module, dangerous matter sources position acquisition module, the choosing of dangerous matter sources accident pattern
Select module, dangerous matter sources accident probability enquiry module, leakage point parameter setting module, value-at-risk setting module, modification dangerous matter sources ginseng
Digital-to-analogue block, loop control module, individual risk's distribution map output module；
Additionally include,
LNG transports navigation channel damage sequence computing module, for calculating damage sequence, damage sequence according to the data of each dangerous matter sources
Calculate and calculating is programmed to accident mathematical modeling using Fortran language, and be packaged into dynamic link library；
LNG transport navigation channel individual risk value computing modules, for the data according to each dangerous matter sources and call damage sequence to calculate
Model calculates individual risk's value；
LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's isopleth graphics module, based on according to navigation channel information and individual risk's computing module
Calculate result and draw the overall risk isopleth in navigation channel；
LNG transports navigation channel individual risk's isopleth display control module, the display number for controlling navigation channel overall risk isopleth
Amount.
5. the LNG port security risk evaluating systems according to claim 3 or 4, it is characterised in that described layout is obtained
Modulus block includes：
Layout load-on module, for choosing layout from computer the machine and being shown in individual risk's assay surface；
Layout display control module, shows for display control of the layout on assay surface, including the full figure of layout
Control, amplification, the diminution control of layout, and the measurement distance operation on layout；
It is laid out drawing scale determining module, the engineer's scale for layout to be calculated and be shown；
Layout module is reloaded, for reacquiring layout.
6. the LNG port security risk evaluating systems according to claim 3 or 4, it is characterised in that described dangerous matter sources thing
Therefore probabilistic query module includes：
Pipeline leakage accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining blow-by tube caliber and leak aperture in pipeline leakage accident, and
According to the data call access databases of acquisition, accident probability is obtained；
Tank leak accident probability enquiry module, for obtaining the reservoir type leaked in tank leak accident, tank leak class
Type, flame pattern, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
The true enquiry module of ship leakage accident probability, for obtaining blow-by tube caliber and leak hole in ship leakage accident
Footpath, and according to the data call access databases of acquisition, obtain accident probability；
Above-mentioned access databases store leakage parameters and corresponding accident probability.
7. the LNG port security risk evaluating systems according to claim 3 or 4, it is characterised in that described leakage point ginseng
Number setting module includes：
Pipeline leakage accident leakage point parameter setting module, for obtaining and storing leakage bore dia, operation temperature, operation pressure
Power, safe radiation value；
Tank leak accident leakage point parameter setting module, including the fiery parameter setting module in storage tank pond and storage tank fireball parameter setting
Module；Wherein the fiery parameter setting module in storage tank pond be used to setting and store cofferdam shape, it is cofferdam size, wind speed, atmospheric temperature, big
Gas relative humidity, safe radiation value, tank volume；Storage tank fireball parameter setting module is for setting and storing wind speed, big temperature
Degree, relative humidity of atomsphere, air mass quality, safe radiation value；
Ship leakage accident leakage point parameter setting module, for set and store wind speed, atmospheric temperature, relative humidity of atomsphere,
Leak mass flow, safe radiation value.
8. LNG port securities risk evaluating system according to claim 3, it is characterised in that described individual risk is only
Vertical computing module includes：
Damage sequence computing module, for calculating damage sequence according to the data of each dangerous matter sources, damage sequence, which is calculated, to be used
Fortran language is programmed calculating to accident mathematical modeling, and is packaged into dynamic link library；Including three kinds of accident mathematical modulos
Type：Jet bubble reactor computation model, the fiery computation model in pond, fireball computation model；Wherein jet bubble reactor computation model is used for pipeline leakage thing
Therefore Consequence calculation, pond fire computation model is for the fiery damage sequence calculating in tank leak pond and ship leakage accident Consequence calculation, fire
Ball computation model is calculated for tank leak fireball damage sequence；
Individual risk is worth computing module, for the data according to each dangerous matter sources and to call damage sequence computation model to calculate personal
Value-at-risk；
Individual risk's isopleth display module, for individual risk to be worth to the result of calculation of computing module with the side of risk isopleth
Formula is drawn on layout, and the intersection of identical individual risk's value is merged, and the optional shade that carries out is shown.
9. LNG port securities risk evaluating system according to claim 3, it is characterised in that described domino accident
Risk Calculation module includes：
Module is chosen in initial incident source, and initial incident source is used as choosing a dangerous matter sources；
Domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable module, occurs whether other dangerous matter sources in time domain occur in initial incident source for calculating
Accident and occurs the probability of accident, domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable is entered using Fortran language to accident probability mathematical modeling
Row program calculation, and it is packaged into dynamic link library；
Module is chosen in second grade accident source, for the result of calculation according to domino calculation of Accident Probability of Major Flammable module, choose a meeting with
The dangerous matter sources that domino accident occurs for initial incident source are used as second grade accident source；
Value-at-risk setting module, for inputting and storing calculative risk value data；
Loop control module is chosen, the loop control calculated is chosen for initial incident source, second grade accident source；
Domino damage sequence computing module, damage sequence calculating, damage sequence are carried out for the data according to two dangerous matter sources
Calculate and calculating is programmed to domino accident mathematical modeling using Fortran language, and be packaged into dynamic link library；
Domino individual risk be worth computing module, for the data according to two dangerous matter sources and call domino damage sequence calculate
Model calculates individual risk's value；
Domino individual risk's isopleth display module, the result of calculation of domino individual risk's computing module is equivalent with risk
The mode of line is drawn on layout, and the intersection of identical individual risk's value is merged, and can carry out the moon
Shadow is shown.
10. LNG port securities risk evaluating system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described social risk point
Analysis module includes:
Individual risk's distribution map acquisition module, individual risk's distribution for obtaining dangerous source region or LNG transport navigation channel more than LNG
Figure, and be shown on social risk calculating interface；
Acceptable risk criteria chooses module, for choosing Acceptable risk criteria, selective standard include IMO standards and
NF-PA59A standards；
Data acquisition module, the number that there is hourage for inputting and storing value-at-risk, personnel's number in risk isopleth, personnel
According to；
Data modification module, the data for changing data acquisition module input；
Graphics module, the data obtained for the Acceptable risk criteria according to acquisition and data acquisition module carry out social risk
Calculating draw, graphics module uses MATLAB program calculations, and is packaged into dynamic link library；
Drawing display control module, color and form, the drawing title of the Points And lines for changing drawing, and with corresponding form
It is shown on drawing；
Social risk assessment result output module, for social risk assessment result to be exported in the form of drawing.
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