CN110245856A - A kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network - Google Patents

A kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network Download PDF

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CN110245856A
CN110245856A CN201910490828.2A CN201910490828A CN110245856A CN 110245856 A CN110245856 A CN 110245856A CN 201910490828 A CN201910490828 A CN 201910490828A CN 110245856 A CN110245856 A CN 110245856A
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lng
analysis module
accident
land
module
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郭开华
朱琳琳
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Sun Yat Sen University
National Sun Yat Sen University
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National Sun Yat Sen University
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N7/00—Computing arrangements based on specific mathematical models
    • G06N7/01—Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10—Services
    • G06Q50/26—Government or public services
    • G06Q50/265—Personal security, identity or safety

Abstract

The present invention relates to risk analysis technology fields, specially a kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network, it include: land LNG safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the land all possible risk factors of LNG danger source, and analytical calculation its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne, is used for the analytical calculation all possible risk factors of LNG danger source waterborne, and analytical calculation its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；Damage sequence computing module, the calculating for damage sequence；Risk analysis module for the analytical calculation of individual risk and social risk, and draws out whole individual risk's distribution map and social risk F-N figure.The present invention can carry out quantitative risk analysis to the fixed danger source of LNG land and waterborne and mobile danger source, scientific reference is provided for LNG related facility safety, LNG handling operation operation and LNG ship oceangoing ship shipping traffic, there is great importance to the prevention of LNG safety accident and control to relevant departments.

Description

A kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network
Technical field
The present invention relates to risk analysis technology fields, more particularly, to a kind of LNG safety wind based on Bayesian network Dangerous assessment system.
Background technique
To realize Energy restructuring, propulsion energy-saving emission reduction, natural gas is in energy resource structure system in occupation of increasingly heavier The position wanted increases to 8.1% by the end of accounting of the natural gas in 2018 in energy resource structure.Push forward the mutual of pipe natural gas comprehensively Join intercommunication, realizes the supply and demand guarantee between different oil companies, the south and the north region.In addition, greatly developing newly-built and enlarging liquefaction day Right gas (LNG) receiving station project, increases to 31 by 10 in 2006 by the end of LNG receiving station in 2018, develops to 2023 Year will be added to 39.For the application for being widely popularized LNG, realizes in common harbour handling LNG, develop the multimodal transport of LNG tank case. LNG is land, storage and transportation mode waterborne and multimodal transport will promote the development of LNG good health, realizes Gas Industry chain Stablize and develops in a healthy way.
Since LNG low temperature is inflammable, very likely can due to misoperation or equipment fault etc. in storage and transport process The serious safety accident such as the leakage of LNG is caused, and then fire or explosion may be caused, to peripheral facility and personnel safety band To seriously threaten.Especially in the case where the such shore facilities situation in comprehensive port area is complicated, Waterborne movable danger source is more, Irremediable loss but will be brought.Therefore carrying out security risk assessment with storage and transport process waterborne by land to LNG is very It is necessary.
China carries out LNG engineering Quantitative Risk Assessment and mostly uses external Safety Evaluation Software greatly at present, in usage scenario With in risk analysis have significant limitation.The particularly important is the probability of happening of safety accident by surrounding environment influence compared with Greatly, the current country lacks the statistical probability of related accidents, and the accuracy in risk assessment processes is limited, it is difficult to consider different Influence of the risk factors to overall region risk.
A kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network is established, land, waterborne and harbour not same district is used for The security risk analysis of danger source and mobile danger source is fixed in domain, can be operated for LNG related facility safety, LNG handling operation It is laid out with region entirety and scientific basis is provided, there is important guiding meaning to the prevention of LNG safety accident and control to relevant departments Justice.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the present invention in view of the above-mentioned problems, provide a kind of LNG security risk assessment based on Bayesian network System, by safety accident carry out Bayesian network analysis calculating, can determine LNG by land, rings different with harbour waterborne Each risk factors and its safety accident probability of happening and Regional Risk value are calculated under border, draws out individual risk's distribution map and society Risk F-N figure, and realize the output of result, it puts into effect standard policy for the operation of LNG associated safety and government and reference frame is provided.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions above-mentioned purpose.
A kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network is provided, comprising:
Land LNG safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the land all possible risk factors of LNG danger source, and analysis meter Calculate its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；
LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne, for analyzing all possible risk factors of LNG danger source waterborne, and analysis meter Calculate its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；
Damage sequence computing module, the calculating for accident serious consequence；
Risk analysis module for the analytical calculation of individual risk and social risk, and draws out whole individual risk's distribution map Scheme with social risk F-N.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned land LNG safety hazard analysis module includes:
Land LNG assesses object determining module, for selecting security risk assessment object, and determine its belong to fixed danger source or Mobile danger source；
Land LNG danger source analysis module, the whole danger sources for being included for analyzing security risk assessment object, and with it is land There are logical relations between LNG assessment object determining module；
Basic crash analysis module, the basic accident being likely to result in land LNG whole danger source is analyzed, and and land There are logical relations between upper LNG danger source analysis module；
Condition crash analysis mould is fast, is used on the basis of Bayesian network analysis, to the condition that may be caused by basic accident Accident is analyzed, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the fire safety evaluating accident caused by condition accident, safety accident includes pond Fire, jet bubble reactor and fireball, and there are logical relations between condition accident.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned land LNG assessment object determining module includes:
Fixed danger source module, for determining the fixed research object of land LNG correlation, fixed danger source include LNG receiving station, LNG liquefaction plant, LNG satellite station and LNG tank formula container；Wherein LNG satellite station includes LNG emergency peak regulation gas holder station, LNG Gas station and LNG gasification station；
Mobile danger source module, for determining the mobile research object of land LNG correlation, mobile danger source includes LNG tank car, LNG Transport train and LNG power car.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned land LNG danger source analysis module includes:
Land Risks source level-one analysis module, for determining the accurate hazard source target in security risk assessment object, including it is complete Hold tank, single appearance tank, pressure regulator, gasifier, pipeline, tank container, LNG tank car storage tank and automobile-used LNG storage tank, and with it is land There are logical relations between LNG assessment object determining module；
Land Risks source secondary analysis module, for determining the relevant parameter of target danger source, and with one fraction of Land Risks source There are logical relations between analysis module.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned LNG danger source analysis module further include:
Full appearance tank volume selecting module, for determining that full appearance tank volume, volume include 200,000 m3Above, 80,000 m3- 20 ten thousand m3With 8 Ten thousand m3Below；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source；
Single appearance tank volume selecting module, for determining that single appearance tank volume, volume include 50,000 m3Above, 10,000 m3- 5 ten thousand m3With 10,000 m3Below；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source；
Pipe diameter selecting module, for determining pipe diameter, caliber D include D>800mm, 400mm<D≤800mm, D≤ 400mm；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned basic crash analysis module includes:
Equipment breakdown analysis module, for analyzing the underlying security accident caused by equipment defect itself or failure, including End defective valve, safe defective valve, flange failure, immersed pump failure, welding in storage tank defect, pipeline material defect and pipeline welding Defect；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
Traffic accident analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused by vehicle or vessel traffic, including tank car traffic Accident, automobile crash, the train was derailed, ship front bump against, ship knock into the back the solids such as collision, ship and bridge bump against and ship It is stranded；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
Human accident analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused due to manual operation factor, including filling operation thing Therefore artificial maloperation, damage from third-party and operation docking failure；
Other accidents analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused by other conditions, including peripheral facility is on fire, ship Upper cargo catches fire and natural calamity；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned condition crash analysis module includes:
First order conditions crash analysis module, for analyzing the first order conditions accident that may be caused by basic accident, including storage tank is broken Damage, piping failure and flexible hose for loading are damaged, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Second level condition crash analysis module, for analyzing the second level condition accident that may be caused by first order conditions accident, including storage Tank leakage, pipe leakage and the leakage of filling operation area, there are logical relations between first order conditions crash analysis module.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne includes:
LNG waterborne assesses object determining module, for determining water safety risk assessment object, and determines that it belongs to fixed danger Source or mobile danger source；
LNG danger source analysis module waterborne, the whole danger sources for being included for analyzing security risk assessment object, and with it is waterborne There are logical relations between LNG assessment object determining module；
Basic crash analysis module, the basic accident being likely to result in LNG whole danger source waterborne is analyzed, and and water There are logical relations between upper LNG danger source analysis module；
Condition crash analysis mould is fast, is used on the basis of Bayesian network analysis, to the condition that may be caused by basic accident Accident is analyzed, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the fire safety evaluating accident caused by condition accident, safety accident includes pond Fire, jet bubble reactor and fireball, and there are logical relations between condition accident.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned LNG waterborne assessment object determining module includes:
Mobile danger source module, for determining the mobile research object of LNG correlation waterborne, mobile danger source include LNG cargo ship, LNG Power Vessel and LNG fill ship；Wherein LNG cargo ship includes half film-type LNG cargo ship, film-type LNG cargo ship, A type LNG cargo ship, Type B LNG cargo ship and c-type LNG cargo ship；LNG Power Vessel includes bulk freighter, chemical tanker, container ship, rolling Shipment and viking line；
Fixed danger source module, for determining that the fixed research object of LNG correlation waterborne, fixed danger source include LNG filling landing stage With Floating Liquefied Natural Gas storage device.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned LNG danger source analysis module waterborne includes:
Danger source level-one analysis module waterborne, for determining LNG carrying capacity or LNG fuel appearance in security risk assessment ship Amount, and there are logical relations between LNG waterborne assessment object determining module；
Danger source secondary analysis module waterborne, for determining the speed parameter of target danger source, including 30kn or more, 20-30kn, 10-20kn, 5-10kn and 5kn or less；And there are logical relations between danger source level-one analysis module waterborne.
As a further improvement, Consequence calculation module includes:
Pond fire net fire effect computing module forms pond fire fire and ship for carrying out tank leak by safety hazard analysis module Oceangoing ship leaks the Consequence calculation to form pond fire fire；
Jet bubble reactor net fire effect computing module, the jet bubble reactor net fire effect caused for pipe leakage calculate；
Fireball Consequence calculation module, the net fire effect for causing fireball for tank leak calculate.
As a further improvement, above-mentioned risk analysis module includes:
Individual risk's analysis module, it is a for being calculated according to the result of safety hazard analysis module and damage sequence computing module People's value-at-risk, and export individual risk's distribution map；
Social risk analysis module for carrying out social risk assessment on the basis of individual risk's distribution map, and exports society Risk evaluation result.
The present invention has the following beneficial effects: compared with existing research through Bayesian network analysis, to land and waterborne The identification and analysis of LNG danger source determine the safety accidents such as the fire that corresponding basic accident may cause with it, carry out Consequence calculation simultaneously carries out risk analysis, due to the introducing of Bayesian network analysis, can determine each risk factors and safety accident Between logical relation, avoid the analytical error due to caused by the deficiency of database data, relatively accurately carry out LNG safety Risk assessment；It is LNG shore facilities and water by carrying out risk analysis to land LNG safety accident and LNG safety accident waterborne Upper vessel traffic etc. provides safety guidance, prevents relevant departments and controls LNG safety accident with great importance.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of the functional block diagram of the LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the detailed maps of land LNG safety hazard analysis module in the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the detailed maps of LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne in the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further explained below with reference to the attached drawings.Attached drawing only for illustration, should not be understood as to this The limitation of patent.
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, present embodiments providing a kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network, comprising:
One, land LNG safety hazard analysis module for analyzing the land all possible risk factors of LNG danger source, and is analyzed Calculate its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；
Two, LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne for analyzing all possible risk factors of LNG danger source waterborne, and is analyzed Calculate its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；
Three, damage sequence computing module, the calculating for accident serious consequence；
Four, risk analysis module for the analytical calculation of individual risk and social risk, and draws out whole individual risk's distribution Figure is schemed with society F-N.
Above-mentioned land LNG safety hazard analysis module includes:
1, land LNG assesses object determining module, for selecting security risk assessment object, and determines that it belongs to fixed danger source Or mobile danger source；
2, land LNG danger source analysis module, the whole danger sources for being included for analyzing security risk assessment object, and and land There are logical relations between upper LNG assessment object determining module；
3, basic crash analysis module, the basic accident being likely to result in land LNG whole danger source are analyzed, and with There are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
4, condition crash analysis mould is fast, is used on the basis of Bayesian network analysis, to the item that may be caused by basic accident Part accident is analyzed, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
5, safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the fire safety evaluating accident caused by condition accident, safety accident includes Chi Huo, jet bubble reactor and fireball, and there are logical relations between condition accident.
Again as shown in Fig. 2, above-mentioned land LNG assessment object determining module includes:
1.1, fixed dangerous source module, for determining that the fixed research object of land LNG correlation, fixed danger source include that LNG is received It stands, LNG liquefaction plant, LNG satellite station and LNG tank formula container；Wherein LNG satellite station include LNG emergency peak regulation gas holder station, LNG gas station and LNG gasification station；
1.2, mobile dangerous source module, for determining the mobile research object of land LNG correlation, mobile danger source include LNG tank car, LNG transports train and LNG power car.
Above-mentioned land LNG danger source analysis module includes:
2.1, Land Risks source level-one analysis module is wrapped for determining the accurate hazard source target in security risk assessment object Include full appearance tank, single appearance tank, pressure regulator, gasifier, pipeline, tank container, LNG tank car storage tank and automobile-used LNG storage tank, and and land There are logical relations between upper LNG research object determining module；
2.2, Land Risks source secondary analysis module, for determining the relevant parameter of target danger source, and with Land Risks source one There are logical relations between grade analysis module.
Above-mentioned LNG danger source analysis module further include:
2.3, full appearance tank volume selecting module, for determining that full appearance tank volume, volume include 200,000 m3 or more, 80,000 m3-20 ten thousand M3 and 80,000 m3 or less；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source；
2.4, single appearance tank volume selecting module, for determining that single appearance tank volume, volume include 50,000 m3 or more, 10,000 m3-5, ten thousand m3 With 10,000 m3 or less；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source；
2.5, pipe diameter selecting module, for determining that pipe diameter, caliber D include D>800mm, 400mm<D≤800mm, D ≤400mm；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source.
Above-mentioned basic crash analysis module includes:
3.1, equipment breakdown analysis module, for analyzing the underlying security accident caused by equipment defect itself or failure, Including cut-off defective valve, safe defective valve, flange failure, immersed pump failure, welding in storage tank defect, pipeline material defect and pipeline Welding defect；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
3.2, traffic accident analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused by vehicle or vessel traffic, including tank car Traffic accident, automobile crash, the train was derailed, ship front bump against, ship knock into the back the solids such as collision, ship and bridge bump against and Calculation of Ship Grounding's；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
3.3, human accident analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused due to manual operation factor, including filling work Industry accident, artificial maloperation, damage from third-party and operation at sea docking failure；
3.4, other accidents analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused by other conditions, including peripheral facility Fire, Cargo On Deck catches fire and natural calamity；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module.
Above-mentioned condition crash analysis module includes:
4.1, first order conditions crash analysis module, for analyzing the first order conditions accident that may be caused by basic accident, including storage Tank breakage, piping failure and flexible hose for loading are damaged, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
4.2, second level condition crash analysis module is wrapped for analyzing the second level condition accident that may be caused by first order conditions accident Tank leak, pipe leakage and the leakage of filling operation area are included, there are logical relations between first order conditions crash analysis module.
Again as shown in figure 3, above-mentioned LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne includes:
1, LNG waterborne assesses object determining module, for determining water safety risk assessment object, and determines that it belongs to fixed danger Dangerous source or mobile danger source；
2, LNG danger source analysis module waterborne, the whole danger sources for being included for analyzing security risk assessment object, and and water There are logical relations between upper LNG assessment object determining module；
Basic crash analysis module, the basic accident being likely to result in LNG whole danger source waterborne is analyzed, and and water There are logical relations between upper LNG danger source analysis module；
Condition crash analysis mould is fast, is used on the basis of Bayesian network analysis, to the condition that may be caused by basic accident Accident is analyzed, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the fire safety evaluating accident caused by condition accident, safety accident includes pond Fire, jet bubble reactor and fireball, and there are logical relations between condition accident.
Above-mentioned LNG waterborne assesses object determining module
1.a, mobile dangerous source module, for determining that the mobile research object of LNG correlation waterborne, mobile danger source include LNG transport Ship, LNG Power Vessel and LNG fill ship；Wherein LNG cargo ship includes half film-type LNG cargo ship, film-type LNG cargo ship, A Type LNG cargo ship, Type B LNG cargo ship and c-type LNG cargo ship；LNG Power Vessel include bulk freighter, chemical tanker, container ship, Roll-on-roll-off ship and viking line；
1.b, fixed dangerous source module, for determining that the fixed research object of LNG correlation waterborne, fixed danger source include LNG filling Landing stage and Floating Liquefied Natural Gas storage device (FSRU).
Above-mentioned LNG danger source analysis module waterborne includes:
2.a, danger source level-one analysis module waterborne, for determining LNG carrying capacity or LNG fuel in security risk assessment ship Capacity, and there are logical relations between LNG waterborne assessment object determining module；
2.b, danger source secondary analysis module waterborne, for determining the speed parameter of target danger source, including 30kn or more, 20- 30kn, 10-20kn, 5-10kn and 5kn or less；And there are logical relations between danger source level-one analysis module waterborne.
Again as shown in Figure 1, above-mentioned Consequence calculation module includes:
1, pond fire net fire effect computing module forms Chi Huohuo for carrying out tank leak by above-mentioned safety hazard analysis module Calamity and ship leak the Consequence calculation to form pond fire fire；
2, jet bubble reactor net fire effect computing module, the jet bubble reactor net fire effect caused for pipe leakage calculate；
3, fireball Consequence calculation module, the net fire effect for causing fireball for tank leak calculate.
Again as shown in Figure 1, above-mentioned risk analysis module includes:
1, individual risk's analysis module, for being calculated according to the result of safety hazard analysis module and damage sequence computing module Individual risk's value, and export individual risk's distribution map；
2, social risk analysis module for carrying out social risk assessment on the basis of individual risk's distribution map, and exports society It can risk evaluation result.
By Bayesian network analysis, identification and analysis to LNG danger source land and waterborne determine corresponding the present invention The safety accidents such as the fire that may cause with it of basic accident, carry out Consequence calculation and simultaneously carry out risk analysis, due to Bayes The introducing of network analysis can determine the logical relation between each risk factors and safety accident, avoid due to database data Deficiency caused by analytical error, relatively accurately carry out LNG security risk assessment；By to land LNG safety accident with LNG safety accident waterborne carries out risk analysis, safety guidance is provided for LNG shore facilities and water craft traffic etc., to correlation Department's prevention has great importance with control LNG safety accident.
The above is only a specific embodiments of the invention, but the design concept of the present invention is not limited to this, all utilizations The insubstantial modifications that present inventive concept makes the present invention, fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims (12)

1. a kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network characterized by comprising
Land LNG safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the land all possible risk factors of LNG danger source, and analysis meter Calculate its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；
LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne, for analyzing all possible risk factors of LNG danger source waterborne, and analysis meter Calculate its fire safety evaluating accident that may cause；
Damage sequence computing module, the calculating for accident serious consequence；
Risk analysis module for the analytical calculation of individual risk and social risk, and draws out whole individual risk's distribution map Scheme with social F-N.
2. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 1 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Land LNG safety hazard analysis module include:
Land LNG assesses object determining module, for selecting security risk assessment object, and determine its belong to fixed danger source or Mobile danger source；
Land LNG danger source analysis module, the whole danger sources for being included for analyzing security risk assessment object, and with it is land There are logical relations between LNG assessment object determining module；
Basic crash analysis module, the basic accident being likely to result in land LNG whole danger source is analyzed, and and land There are logical relations between upper LNG danger source analysis module；
Condition crash analysis mould is fast, is used on the basis of Bayesian network analysis, to the condition that may be caused by basic accident Accident is analyzed, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the fire safety evaluating accident caused by condition accident, safety accident includes pond Fire, jet bubble reactor and fireball, and there are logical relations between condition accident.
3. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 2 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Land LNG assessment object determining module include:
Fixed danger source module, for determining the fixed assessment object of land LNG correlation, fixed danger source include LNG receiving station, LNG liquefaction plant, LNG satellite station and LNG tank formula container；Wherein LNG satellite station includes that LNG emergency peak regulation gas holder station, LNG add Gas station and LNG gasification station；
Mobile danger source module, for determining the mobile assessment object of land LNG correlation, mobile danger source includes LNG tank car, LNG Transport train and LNG power car.
4. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 2 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Land LNG danger source analysis module include:
Land Risks source level-one analysis module, for determining the accurate hazard source target in security risk assessment object, including it is complete Hold tank, single appearance tank, pressure regulator, gasifier, pipeline, tank container, LNG tank car storage tank and automobile-used LNG storage tank, and with it is land There are logical relations between LNG assessment object determining module；
Land Risks source secondary analysis module, for determining the relevant parameter of target danger source, and with one fraction of Land Risks source There are logical relations between analysis module.
5. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 4 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described LNG danger source analysis module further include:
Full appearance tank volume selecting module, for determining that full appearance tank volume, volume include 200,000 m3Above, 80,000 m3- 20 ten thousand m3With 80,000 m3Below；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source；
Single appearance tank volume selecting module, for determining that single appearance tank volume, volume include 50,000 m3Above, 10,000 m3- 5 ten thousand m3With 10,000 m3 Below；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source；
Pipe diameter selecting module, for determining pipe diameter, caliber D include D>800mm, 400mm<D≤800mm, D≤ 400mm；And there are logical relations between the secondary analysis module of Land Risks source.
6. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 2 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Basic crash analysis module include:
Equipment breakdown analysis module, for analyzing the underlying security accident caused by equipment defect itself or failure, including End defective valve, safe defective valve, flange failure, immersed pump failure, welding in storage tank defect, pipeline material defect and pipeline welding Defect；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
Traffic accident analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused by vehicle or vessel traffic, including tank car traffic Accident, automobile crash, the train was derailed, ship front bump against, ship knock into the back the solids such as collision, ship and bridge bump against and ship It is stranded；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module；
Human accident analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused due to manual operation factor, including filling process thing Therefore artificial maloperation, damage from third-party and operation docking failure；
Other accidents analysis module, for analyzing the basic accident caused by other conditions, including peripheral facility is on fire, ship Upper cargo catches fire and natural calamity；And there are logical relations between land LNG danger source analysis module.
7. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 2 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Condition crash analysis module includes:
First order conditions crash analysis module, for analyzing the first order conditions accident that may be caused by basic accident, including storage tank is broken Damage, piping failure and flexible hose for loading are damaged, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Second level condition crash analysis module, for analyzing the second level condition accident that may be caused by first order conditions accident, including storage Tank leakage, pipe leakage and the leakage of filling operation area, there are logical relations between first order conditions crash analysis module.
8. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 1 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described LNG safety hazard analysis module waterborne include:
LNG waterborne assesses object determining module, for determining water safety risk assessment object, and determines that it belongs to fixed danger Source or mobile danger source；
LNG danger source analysis module waterborne, the whole danger sources for being included for analyzing security risk assessment object, and with it is waterborne There are logical relations between LNG assessment object determining module；
Basic crash analysis module, the basic accident being likely to result in LNG whole danger source waterborne is analyzed, and and water There are logical relations between upper LNG danger source analysis module；
Condition crash analysis mould is fast, is used on the basis of Bayesian network analysis, to the condition that may be caused by basic accident Accident is analyzed, and there are logical relations between basic crash analysis module；
Safety hazard analysis module, for analyzing the fire safety evaluating accident caused by condition accident, safety accident includes pond Fire, jet bubble reactor and fireball, and there are logical relations between condition accident.
9. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 8 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described LNG waterborne assessment object determining module include:
Mobile danger source module, for determining the mobile research object of LNG correlation waterborne, mobile danger source include LNG cargo ship, LNG Power Vessel and LNG fill ship；Wherein LNG cargo ship includes half film-type LNG cargo ship, film-type LNG cargo ship, A type LNG cargo ship, Type B LNG cargo ship and c-type LNG cargo ship；LNG Power Vessel includes bulk freighter, chemical tanker, container ship, rolling Shipment and viking line；
Fixed danger source module, for determining that the fixed research object of LNG correlation waterborne, fixed danger source include LNG filling landing stage With Floating Liquefied Natural Gas storage device.
10. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 8 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described LNG danger source analysis module waterborne include:
Danger source level-one analysis module waterborne, for determining LNG carrying capacity or LNG fuel appearance in security risk assessment ship Amount, and there are logical relations between LNG waterborne assessment object determining module；
Danger source secondary analysis module waterborne, for determining the speed parameter of target danger source, including 30kn or more, 20-30kn, 10-20kn, 5-10kn and 5kn or less；And there are logical relations between danger source level-one analysis module waterborne.
11. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 1 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Consequence calculation module include:
Pond fire net fire effect computing module forms pond fire fire and ship for carrying out tank leak by safety hazard analysis module Oceangoing ship leaks the Consequence calculation to form pond fire fire；
Jet bubble reactor net fire effect computing module, the jet bubble reactor net fire effect caused for pipe leakage calculate.
Fireball Consequence calculation module, the net fire effect for causing fireball for tank leak calculate.
12. the LNG security risk assessment system according to claim 1 based on Bayesian network, which is characterized in that described Risk analysis module include:
Individual risk's analysis module, it is a for being calculated according to the result of safety hazard analysis module and damage sequence computing module People's value-at-risk, and export individual risk's distribution map；
Social risk analysis module for carrying out social risk assessment on the basis of individual risk's distribution map, and exports society Risk evaluation result.
CN201910490828.2A 2019-06-06 2019-06-06 A kind of LNG security risk assessment system based on Bayesian network Pending CN110245856A (en)

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