CN111105108A - Social risk calculation method and system for gas transmission pipeline - Google Patents
Social risk calculation method and system for gas transmission pipeline Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a social risk calculation method and a social risk calculation system for a gas pipeline, wherein the method comprises the following steps: s1, calculating the failure probability of the pipeline; s2, determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage; s3, calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline; s4, carrying out block division on the periphery of the pipeline, and calculating the number N of the death people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident; s5, calculating the cumulative frequency F of the death number which is more than or equal to N; and S6, according to the number N of dead people and the cumulative frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve. The invention comprehensively considers the consequences of various leakage accidents, solves the problem that the existing social risk evaluation method only evaluates the consequences of a single accident, specifies the dividing principle of the peripheral blocks of the pipeline, and effectively calculates the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline by using a computer.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk evaluation of oil and gas pipelines, in particular to a social risk calculation method and system of a gas pipeline.
Background
In recent years, natural gas has been gradually replaced traditional energy sources to become main fuels due to the characteristics of cleanness and high efficiency, the market of natural gas is in a fast development period, the consumption of natural gas is estimated to reach 3000 billion cubic meters by 2020, and the mileage of a natural gas pipeline is estimated to be increased to 10.4 kilometers. With the development of gas transmission pipeline industry, the urban expansion pace is accelerated, the gas transmission pipeline is difficult to avoid passing through a densely populated area, and the gas transmission pipeline is easy to lose efficacy and has serious consequences due to high pressure of natural gas for pipeline transmission, wide span and flammable, explosive and volatile natural gas medium.
Quantitative risk evaluation is used as a core technology for gas transmission pipeline integrity management, and aims to ensure that personal risks and social risks in the peripheral area of a pipeline are always within an acceptable range and ensure the life and property safety of personnel in the periphery of the pipeline by comprehensively analyzing the probability of failure of the pipeline and the severity of an accident. As an important index of risk evaluation, and in consideration of the characteristics of low probability and high consequence of gas transmission pipeline accidents, the calculation of social risk is particularly important.
The social risk is expressed as the influence of the pipeline accident on the society and can be represented by an F-N (F is the occurrence frequency, and N is the number of dead people) curve, namely the cumulative frequency of the pipeline accident causing more than or equal to N people to die at the same time. However, an accurate and efficient social risk calculation or evaluation system for the gas transmission pipeline is lacked at present.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a social risk calculation method and a social risk calculation system for a gas transmission pipeline.
Specifically, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, the present invention provides a social risk calculation method for a gas pipeline, including:
s1, calculating the failure probability of the pipeline;
s2, determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage;
s3, calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline;
s4, carrying out block division on the periphery of the pipeline, and calculating the number N of the death people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident;
s5, calculating the cumulative frequency F of the death number which is more than or equal to N;
and S6, according to the calculated number N of the dead people and the accumulated frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve.
Further, the S1 specifically includes:
calculating the failure probability of the pipeline according to the following first relation model:
in the formula, P is the failure probability of the pipeline; piThe benchmark failure probability of pipeline leakage caused by different hazard factors; miCorrection coefficients for different hazard factors; the subscript number i of i as a hazard factor is 1,2,3,4,5, 6; the 6 types of hazard factors are respectively: design and construction defects, corrosion, excavation damage, natural and geological disasters, deliberate damage and misoperation; correction coefficient M of hazard factorsiAffected by specific factors of different hazard factors, wherein the design and construction defects comprise pipe making factors and welding factors; the corrosion comprises an internal corrosion factor, an external corrosion factor and a stress corrosion factor; the excavation damage comprises pipeline buried depth factors, region grade factors, line patrol frequency factors and monitoring and early warning factors; natural and geological disasters comprise disaster easily-occurring factors and disaster protection factors; the deliberate destruction comprises violation pressure-occupying factors, terrorist activity factors and precautionary measures factors; the misoperation includes violating the operation factor and the supervision factor。
Further, the S2 specifically includes:
determining the occurrence probability of three leakage accidents based on historical accident statistical data of pipeline enterprises; wherein, the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident.
Further, the S3 specifically includes:
according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline, calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to the following second relation model:
wherein A is the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident; j is the subscript serial number i of the leakage accident is 1,2 and 3, and the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident; f. ofjThe probability of occurrence of different leakage accidents; a. thejThe dead area for different leakage accidents.
Further, the dead area of the jet flame event is calculated as follows:
A1＝πr1 2
wherein Q is a gas leakage rate, kg/s; deltagIs the gas leakage coefficient; p is the internal pressure of the pipeline, Pa; a. the0Is the area of the opening, m2(ii) a Gamma is the adiabatic index; m is the molecular mass of the gas, kg/mol; r gas constant, J/(mol. K); t is the temperature of the gas in the pipeline, K; r is1M is the death radius of the jet flame, η is the efficiency factor, τ is the atmospheric transmission, Q is the gas leakage rate, kg/s, HcHeat of combustion, kJ/kg; i is the heat radiation flux, kW/m2；
The death area of a fire incident is calculated as follows:
A2＝πr2 2
in the formula, r2M, the death radius of a flash fire; qHMJ/Nm for natural gas heating value3(ii) a Lambda is the heat transfer coefficient, I is the heat radiation flux, kW/m2；
The death area of the steam cloud explosion accident is calculated by adopting the following method:
A3＝πr3 2
in the formula, r3The death radius of the vapor cloud explosion, m; delta P is the overpressure value of the shock wave, Pa; m isTIs TNT equivalent; m isdRepresenting the mass of gas participating in the explosion; hdRepresents the explosion heat of gas; qTRepresents the explosive value of a standard TNT explosive source, kJ/kg.
Further, the S4 specifically includes:
dividing the peripheral area of the pipeline into strip-shaped blocks with preset widths parallel to the central line of the pipeline, and counting the population density of each block in the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident;
and calculating the number N of the dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident according to the following third relation model according to the population density of each block and the area of each block:
wherein k is the lower order of the blocksNo. i ═ 1,2,3, …, n; rhokPopulation density, people/m, for different blocks2；AkIs the area of different blocks, m2。
Further, the S5 specifically includes:
a cumulative frequency of deaths F greater than or equal to N according to the fourth relational model below:
wherein F is the cumulative frequency of deaths greater than or equal to N; p is the failure probability of the pipeline; j is the subscript serial number i of the leakage accident is 1,2 and 3, and the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident; f. ofjThe probability of occurrence of different leakage accidents.
In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a social risk calculation system for a gas pipeline, including:
the pipeline failure probability calculation module is used for calculating the failure probability of the pipeline;
the leakage accident occurrence probability determining module is used for determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage;
the leakage accident dead area calculation module is used for calculating the dead area of the leakage accident according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline;
the death number calculation module is used for dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of the death people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the death area of the leakage accident;
the cumulative frequency calculation module is used for calculating the cumulative frequency F of the death number which is greater than or equal to N;
and the social risk evaluation module is used for judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to the calculated death number N and the accumulated frequency F and a preset F-N curve.
In a third aspect, the present invention further provides an electronic device, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method for calculating social risk of a gas pipeline according to the first aspect.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which computer program, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for calculating a social risk of a gas pipeline according to the first aspect.
According to the technical scheme, the social risk calculation method for the gas transmission pipeline comprises the following steps: calculating the failure probability of the pipeline; determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage; calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline; dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident; calculating the cumulative frequency F of the number of deaths greater than or equal to N; and according to the number N of the dead people and the cumulative frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve. The invention comprehensively considers the consequences of various leakage accidents, solves the problem that the conventional social risk evaluation method only evaluates the consequences of a single accident, specifies a pipeline periphery block division principle, performs block division on the periphery of the pipeline, and combines population density in the blocks and death area of the leakage accidents to obtain more accurate number N of death people.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a social risk calculation method for a gas pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a hierarchical diagram of a pipeline failure probability calculation provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating the partitioning of the peripheral blocks of the pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a graphical illustration of an F-N curve of social risk provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a social risk calculation system for a gas pipeline according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to yet another embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention provides a social risk calculation method for a gas transmission pipeline, which is characterized in that a failure probability correction model is established on the basis of historical statistical data, the consequences of various leakage accidents are mainly considered, the dividing principle of peripheral blocks of the pipeline is specified, and the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline is effectively calculated by using a computer. The social risk calculation method for the gas transmission pipeline provided by the invention is described in detail by specific embodiments.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating social risk of a gas pipeline, and referring to fig. 1, the method includes the following steps:
step 101: and calculating the failure probability of the pipeline.
Step 102: and determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage.
Step 103: and calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline.
Step 104: and dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of the dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident.
Step 105: the cumulative frequency F of deaths greater than or equal to N is calculated.
Step 106: and according to the calculated number N of the dead people and the accumulated frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve.
As can be seen from the above description, the method for calculating social risk of a gas pipeline provided in this embodiment includes: calculating the failure probability of the pipeline; determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage; calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline; dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident; calculating the cumulative frequency F of the number of deaths greater than or equal to N; and according to the number N of the dead people and the cumulative frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve. Therefore, the method comprehensively considers the consequences of various leakage accidents, solves the problem that the conventional social risk evaluation method only evaluates the consequences of a single accident, specifies a pipeline periphery block division principle, performs block division on the periphery of the pipeline, and combines population density in the blocks with the death area of the leakage accidents to obtain more accurate number N of death people.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 101 is specifically implemented as follows:
calculating the failure probability of the pipeline according to the following first relation model:
in the formula, P is the failure probability of the pipeline; piThe benchmark failure probability of pipeline leakage caused by different hazard factors; miCorrection coefficients for different hazard factors; the subscript number i of i as a hazard factor is 1,2,3,4,5, 6; for example, category 6 hazard factors and their probability of failure PiRespectively as follows: design and construction defects, 0.1240 times/(kilometer.year), corrosion, 0.1210 times/(kilometer.year), excavation damage, 0.0960 times/(kilometer.year), natural and geological disasters, 0.0250 times/(kilometer.year), deliberate damage, 0.0098 times/(kilometer.year), misoperation and 0.0041 times/(kilometer.year).
Referring to fig. 2, the hazard factors of category 6 are: design and construction defects, corrosion, excavation damage, natural and geological disasters, deliberate damage and misoperation; correction coefficient M of hazard factorsiAffected by specific factors of different hazard factors, wherein the design and construction defects comprise pipe making factors and welding factors; the corrosion comprises an internal corrosion factor, an external corrosion factor and a stress corrosion factor; the excavation damage comprises pipeline buried depth factors, region grade factors, line patrol frequency factors and monitoring and early warning factors; natural and geological disasters comprise disaster easily-occurring factors and disaster protection factors; the deliberate destruction comprises violation pressure-occupying factors, terrorist activity factors and precautionary measures factors; the maloperation includes violating the operation factor and the supervision factor.
It can be seen that, in the embodiment, when the failure probability of the specific section is calculated, the method of correcting the reference failure probability by using the correction coefficient is adopted, so as to obtain the failure probability P of the specific pipe section of the gas pipeline.
Therefore, the present embodiment fully considers the hazard factors of the safe operation of the gas pipeline from 6 aspects of design and construction defects, corrosion, excavation damage, natural and geological disasters, deliberate damage and misoperation. Based on historical statistical failure probability, the statistical probability is corrected by combining specific influence factors of hazard factors, the failure probability is high in pertinence through the calculation method, and uncertainty caused by subjective factors in the calculation process is reduced.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 102 is specifically implemented as follows:
determining the occurrence probability of three leakage accidents based on historical accident statistical data of pipeline enterprises; wherein, the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident.
In step 102, according to historical accident statistics data of the pipeline enterprise, after the gas in the pipeline is continuously leaked, 3 different leakage accident consequences can occur, including flame spraying, fire flashing and steam cloud explosion. Wherein the occurrence probability of the jet flame is 0.1, the occurrence probability of the flash fire is 0.06, and the occurrence probability of the vapor cloud explosion is 0.04.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 103 is specifically implemented as follows:
according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline, calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to the following second relation model:
wherein A is the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident; j is the subscript serial number i of the leakage accident is 1,2 and 3, and the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident; f. ofjFor the probability of occurrence of different leakage accidents, according to the above description, the probability of occurrence of jet flames is 0.1, the probability of occurrence of flash fires is 0.06, and the probability of occurrence of vapor cloud explosions is 0.04; a. thejThe dead area for different leakage accidents.
Wherein the dead area of the jet flame event is calculated in the following manner:
A1＝πr1 2
wherein Q is a gas leakage rate, kg/s; deltagIs the gas leakage coefficient; p is the internal pressure of the pipeline, Pa; a. the0Is the area of the opening, m2(ii) a Gamma is the adiabatic index; m is the molecular mass of the gas, kg/mol; r gas constant, J/(mol. K); t is the temperature of the gas in the pipeline, K; r is1M is the death radius of the jet flame, η is the efficiency factor, τ is the atmospheric transmission, Q is the gas leakage rate, kg/s, HcHeat of combustion, kJ/kg; i is the heat radiation flux, kW/m2；
Wherein, the death area of the fire-fighting accident is calculated by adopting the following method:
A2＝πr2 2
in the formula, r2M, the death radius of a flash fire; qHMJ/Nm for natural gas heating value3(ii) a Lambda is the heat transfer coefficient, I is the heat radiation flux, kW/m2；
Wherein, the dead area of the steam cloud explosion accident is calculated by adopting the following method:
A3＝πr3 2
in the formula, r3The death radius of the vapor cloud explosion, m; delta P is the overpressure value of the shock wave, Pa; m isTIs TNT equivalent; m isdRepresenting the mass of gas participating in the explosion; hdRepresents the explosion heat of gas; qTRepresents the explosive value of a standard TNT explosive source, kJ/kg.
Since social risks are closely related to the impact area of the accident and the population density around the pipeline, in a preferred embodiment, the step 104 is implemented by:
considering that residential areas are laid in parallel along the center line of the pipeline, referring to fig. 3, the peripheral area of the pipeline is divided into strip-shaped blocks of a preset width (e.g., 25m width) parallel to the center line of the pipeline, and the population density of each block within the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident is counted;
and calculating the number N of the dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident according to the following third relation model according to the population density of each block and the area of each block:
in the formula, k is a subscript number i of the block, i is 1,2,3, …, n; rhokPopulation density, people/m, for different blocks2；AkIs the area of different blocks, m2。
It should be noted that the area a of different blocks is calculatedkThe area of each block within the circular integrated dead area shown in fig. 3 can then be calculated using conventional processing algorithms in geometric mathematics. For example, the radius r in fig. 3 can be directly derived from the integrated dead area calculated as above, and the width of each grid is a preset value (e.g. 25m), then the area of the fan and the triangle can be obtained by drawing two auxiliary lines, and then the area of the first block near the pipeline in the upper half can be obtained by adding the two auxiliary lines.
It should be noted that, in the present embodiment, the peripheral area of the pipeline is divided into strip-shaped blocks with preset widths parallel to the central line of the pipeline, which is in accordance with the actual situation of laying the pipeline along the residential area, and the population density of each block is further combined, so that the accuracy of the number of dead people obtained by calculation is improved, and compared with the processing mode of dividing the pipeline into dense grids (e.g. 25m × 25m) in the prior art, the processing mode can also reduce the workload.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 105 is specifically implemented as follows:
a cumulative frequency of deaths F greater than or equal to N according to the fourth relational model below:
wherein F is the cumulative frequency of deaths greater than or equal to N; p is the failure probability of the pipeline; j is the subscript serial number i of the leakage accident is 1,2 and 3, and the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident; f. ofjFor the occurrence probability of different leakage accidents, the occurrence probability of jet flames was 0.1, the occurrence probability of flash fires was 0.06, and the occurrence probability of vapor cloud explosions was 0.04, according to the above description.
It is understood that after obtaining the number of deaths N and the cumulative frequency F, the acceptability of the social risk of the gas pipeline may be determined according to the F-N curve shown in fig. 4 based on the calculated number of deaths N and cumulative frequency F.
As can be seen from the above description, the present embodiment considers all possible consequences of a leakage accident, and solves the problem that the existing social risk assessment method only evaluates the consequences of a single accident. In addition, the embodiment divides the peripheral area of the pipeline into the strip-shaped blocks with the width of 25m parallel to the central line of the pipeline, thereby conforming to the practical situation of laying the pipeline along the residential area and reducing the workload of dividing the pipeline into grids of 25m multiplied by 25 m. The embodiment establishes the social risk calculation system of the gas transmission pipeline, so that the calculation process of the social risk is programmed, the workload of evaluation personnel in the data collection and evaluation processes is reduced based on the automatic identification and block division functions of the system, and the evaluation efficiency of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline is improved.
As can be seen from the above description, the failure probability correction model is established based on historical statistical data, the consequences of various leakage accidents are mainly considered, the partitioning principle of the peripheral blocks of the pipeline is specified, and the social risk of the gas pipeline is effectively calculated by using a computer.
Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides a social risk calculation system for a gas pipeline, referring to fig. 5, the system including:
the pipeline failure probability calculation module 21 is used for calculating the failure probability of the pipeline;
a leakage accident occurrence probability determining module 22, configured to determine, for different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage, an occurrence probability of each leakage accident;
the leakage accident death area calculation module 23 is used for calculating the death area of the leakage accident according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline;
the death number calculating module 24 is used for dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of the death people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the death area of the leakage accident;
a cumulative frequency calculation module 25 for calculating a cumulative frequency F at which the number of deaths is greater than or equal to N;
and the social risk evaluation module 26 is used for judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to the calculated death number N and the accumulated frequency F and a preset F-N curve.
The social risk calculation system for a gas transmission pipeline according to this embodiment may be configured to execute the social risk calculation method for a gas transmission pipeline according to the foregoing embodiment, and the working principle and the technical effect are similar, and specific contents may refer to the description of the foregoing embodiment and are not described here again.
Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which specifically includes the following components, with reference to fig. 6: a processor 701, a memory 702, a communication interface 703 and a bus 704;
the processor 701, the memory 702 and the communication interface 703 complete mutual communication through the bus 704; the communication interface 703 is used for realizing information transmission between related devices such as modeling software, an intelligent manufacturing equipment module library and the like;
the processor 701 is configured to call a computer program in the memory 702, and the processor implements all the steps of the method for calculating a social risk of a gas pipeline according to the above embodiment when executing the computer program, for example, the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program:
step 101: and calculating the failure probability of the pipeline.
Step 102: and determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage.
Step 103: and calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline.
Step 104: and dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of the dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident.
Step 105: the cumulative frequency F of deaths greater than or equal to N is calculated.
Step 106: and according to the calculated number N of the dead people and the accumulated frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve.
Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, having a computer program stored thereon, where the computer program is executed by a processor to implement all the steps of the above-mentioned social risk calculation method for a gas pipeline, for example, when the processor executes the computer program, the processor implements the following steps:
step 101: and calculating the failure probability of the pipeline.
Step 102: and determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage.
Step 103: and calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline.
Step 104: and dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of the dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident.
Step 105: the cumulative frequency F of deaths greater than or equal to N is calculated.
Step 106: and according to the calculated number N of the dead people and the accumulated frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve.
It is noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The above examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A social risk calculation method of a gas transmission pipeline is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, calculating the failure probability of the pipeline;
s2, determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage;
s3, calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline;
s4, carrying out block division on the periphery of the pipeline, and calculating the number N of the death people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident;
s5, calculating the cumulative frequency F of the death number which is more than or equal to N;
and S6, according to the calculated number N of the dead people and the accumulated frequency F, judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to a preset F-N curve.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S1 specifically includes:
calculating the failure probability of the pipeline according to the following first relation model:
in the formula, P is the failure probability of the pipeline; piThe benchmark failure probability of pipeline leakage caused by different hazard factors; miCorrection coefficients for different hazard factors; the subscript number i of i as a hazard factor is 1,2,3,4,5, 6; the 6 types of hazard factors are respectively: design and construction defects, corrosion, excavation damage, natural and geological disasters, deliberate damage and misoperation; correction coefficient M of hazard factorsiAffected by specific factors of different hazard factors, wherein the design and construction defects comprise pipe making factors and welding factors; the corrosion comprises an internal corrosion factor, an external corrosion factor and a stress corrosion factor; the excavation damage comprises pipeline buried depth factors, region grade factors, line patrol frequency factors and monitoring and early warning factors; natural and geological disasters comprise disaster easily-occurring factors and disaster protection factors; the deliberate destruction comprises violation pressure-occupying factors, terrorist activity factors and precautionary measures factors; the maloperation includes violating the operation factor and the supervision factor.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S2 specifically includes:
determining the occurrence probability of three leakage accidents based on historical accident statistical data of pipeline enterprises; wherein, the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S3 specifically includes:
according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline, calculating the comprehensive death area of the leakage accidents according to the following second relation model:
wherein A is the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident; j is the subscript serial number i of the leakage accident is 1,2 and 3, and the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident; f. ofjThe probability of occurrence of different leakage accidents; a. thejThe dead area for different leakage accidents.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the dead area of the jet flame event is calculated as follows:
A1＝πr1 2
wherein Q is a gas leakage rate, kg/s; deltagIs the gas leakage coefficient; p is the internal pressure of the pipeline, Pa; a. the0Is the area of the opening, m2(ii) a Gamma is the adiabatic index; m is the molecular mass of the gas, kg/mol; r gas constant, J/(mol. K); t is the temperature of the gas in the pipeline, K; r is1M is the death radius of the jet flame, η is the efficiency factor, τ is the atmospheric transmission, Q is the gas leakage rate, kg/s, HcHeat of combustion, kJ/kg; i is the heat radiation flux, kW/m2；
The death area of a fire incident is calculated as follows:
A2＝πr2 2
in the formula, r2M, the death radius of a flash fire; qHMJ/Nm for natural gas heating value3(ii) a Lambda is the heat transfer coefficient, I is the heat radiation flux, kW/m2；
The death area of the steam cloud explosion accident is calculated by adopting the following method:
A3＝πr3 2
in the formula, r3The death radius of the vapor cloud explosion, m; delta P is the overpressure value of the shock wave, Pa; m isTIs TNT equivalent; m isdRepresenting the mass of gas participating in the explosion; hdRepresents the explosion heat of gas; qTRepresents the explosive value of a standard TNT explosive source, kJ/kg.
6. The method according to claim 4, wherein the S4 specifically includes:
dividing the peripheral area of the pipeline into strip-shaped blocks with preset widths parallel to the central line of the pipeline, and counting the population density of each block in the comprehensive death area of the leakage accident;
and calculating the number N of the dead people in the influence range of the leakage accident according to the following third relation model according to the population density of each block and the area of each block:
in the formula, k is a subscript number i of the block, i is 1,2,3, …, n; rhokPopulation density, people/m, for different blocks2；AkAs faces of different blocksProduct of m2。
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S5 specifically includes:
a cumulative frequency of deaths F greater than or equal to N according to the fourth relational model below:
wherein F is the cumulative frequency of deaths greater than or equal to N; p is the failure probability of the pipeline; j is the subscript serial number i of the leakage accident is 1,2 and 3, and the three leakage accidents are respectively a flame spraying accident, a fire flashing accident and a steam cloud explosion accident; f. ofjThe probability of occurrence of different leakage accidents.
8. A social risk calculation system for a gas pipeline, comprising:
the pipeline failure probability calculation module is used for calculating the failure probability of the pipeline;
the leakage accident occurrence probability determining module is used for determining the occurrence probability of each leakage accident aiming at different leakage accidents of pipeline leakage;
the leakage accident dead area calculation module is used for calculating the dead area of the leakage accident according to different leakage accidents of the pipeline;
the death number calculation module is used for dividing the periphery of the pipeline into blocks, and calculating the number N of the death people in the influence range of the leakage accident by combining the population density in the blocks and the death area of the leakage accident;
the cumulative frequency calculation module is used for calculating the cumulative frequency F of the death number which is greater than or equal to N;
and the social risk evaluation module is used for judging the acceptability of the social risk of the gas transmission pipeline according to the calculated death number N and the accumulated frequency F and a preset F-N curve.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor when executing the program performs the steps of the method of calculating a social risk of a gas pipeline according to any of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for calculating a social risk of a gas pipeline according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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