CN111104725A - Individual risk calculation method and system for oil pipeline - Google Patents
Individual risk calculation method and system for oil pipeline Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for calculating personal risks of an oil pipeline, wherein the method comprises the following steps: s1, determining the leakage probability of different leakage apertures according to different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline; s2, calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline leaks; s3, calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited; s4, calculating the fatality rate of different accident consequences; and S5, calculating personal risks according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences. According to the method, personal risk calculation of the oil pipeline is carried out by comprehensively considering different leakage apertures and different accident consequences, and the obtained personal risk calculation result has a higher reference value.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk evaluation of oil and gas pipelines, in particular to a personal risk calculation method and system of an oil pipeline.
Background
Crude oil and finished oil pipelines are expected to grow to 6.5 kilometers by 2020, and the construction industry of oil pipelines is still steadily developed although being impacted by emerging energy sources. Because the oil pipeline has the characteristics of long line, thick pipe diameter, high pressure and the like, the oil pipeline passes through complicated terrain, has high requirements on design and construction technology, and most pipelines are buried underground, the safe operation of the oil pipeline is influenced by various factors such as third-party damage, corrosion, natural and geological disasters, design and construction defects and the like. The oil products are often flammable, explosive, toxic and harmful, and once the pipeline under pressure fails, the pipeline is often accompanied by larger leakage and pollution, and even fire and explosion are possibly caused. In order to further ensure the safe and stable operation of the pipeline, the risk evaluation work of the oil pipeline is urgently needed.
The quantitative risk evaluation is the trend of the current risk evaluation, and aims to ensure that the personal risk and the social risk of the peripheral area of the pipeline are always within an acceptable range and ensure the safety of lives and properties of people around the pipeline by comprehensively analyzing the probability of the pipeline failure and the severity of accident consequences. The individual risk is used as an important measurement index for risk evaluation, and accurate calculation of the individual risk is particularly important.
The personal risk represents the annual death probability of individuals around the pipe when a pipe accident occurs, which depends on the specific failure location of the pipe. In the prior art, the expression form of the personal risk is presented in the form of a contour line on a map or in the form of a change curve at different distances from the central line of the pipeline, however, the two expression forms are more suitable for determining the safe distance, optimizing the pipeline layout and having less risk management effect on the operation period of the oil pipeline. The existing calculation method mainly focuses on two aspects: firstly, under the consequences of a specific leakage accident, only the leakage probability of different apertures is considered to calculate personal risk; secondly, under a specific leakage aperture, only considering different accident consequence probabilities to calculate personal risks. Both methods are relatively unilateral and cannot reflect the diversity and uncertainty of failure of the oil pipeline.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a method and a system for calculating personal risks of an oil pipeline.
Specifically, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for calculating personal risk of an oil pipeline, comprising:
s1, determining the leakage probability of different leakage apertures according to different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline;
s2, calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline leaks;
s3, calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited;
s4, calculating the fatality rate of different accident consequences;
and S5, calculating personal risks according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
Further, the method further comprises:
and S6, determining the acceptability of the personal risk according to the calculated personal risk and the preset risk acceptance criterion.
Further, the S1 specifically includes:
aiming at four types of leakage apertures of an oil pipeline, determining the leakage probability of the four types of leakage apertures based on historical failure statistical data of pipeline enterprises; wherein, the four types of leakage apertures are respectively small aperture, middle aperture, big aperture and cracking.
Further, the S2 specifically includes:
calculating the probability of the oil being ignited after the pipeline leaks according to the following first relation model group:
in the formula, plightThe probability of ignition of leaked oil after pipeline leakage; m is the relative molecular mass of the leaked oil product, kg/mol; c is a constant; q is the pipeline leakage rate, kg/s; a is the leakage area, m2；C0Is the orifice leakage coefficient; rho is the density of the oil product, kg/m3(ii) a p is the internal pressure of the pipeline, Pa; p is a radical of0Atmospheric pressure, Pa.
Further, the S3 specifically includes:
calculating the occurrence probability of the three accident consequences of the pool fire, the vapor cloud explosion and the flash fire according to the following second relation model group:
ppool＝0.8plight
pVCE＝0.05plight
pflash＝0.15plight
in the formula, ppoolThe probability of the occurrence of a pool fire accident after the leaked oil product is ignited; p is a radical ofVCEThe probability of the occurrence of steam cloud explosion accidents after the leaked oil product is ignited; p is a radical offlashThe probability of the occurrence of a flashover accident after the leaked oil is ignited; p is a radical oflightThe probability of ignition of leaked oil after the pipeline leaks is shown.
Further, the S4 specifically includes:
the mortality rate of the pool fire accident outcome was calculated according to the following third relationship model set:
qpool＝-14.9+2.56ln(tIpool 4/3)
Ipool＝Ipool'V(1-0.058lnr)
in the formula, qpoolMortality rate for pool fire accidents; i ispoolFor thermal radiation of pool firesAmount, kW/m2；Ipool' surface heat radiation flux of pool fire, kW/m2(ii) a V is a viewing angle coefficient; r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point;
calculating the fatality rate of the steam cloud explosion accident consequence according to the following fourth relation model group:
qVCE＝-77.1+6.9ln(ΔP)
in the formula, qVCELethality as a vapor cloud explosion incident; delta P is the overpressure value of the shock wave, Pa; r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point; qTIs the explosive value of a standard TNT explosive source, kJ/kg; m isdThe quality of oil products participating in explosion; hdHeat of explosion, kJ/kg;
calculating the lethality of the consequences of the flash fire accident according to the following fifth relational model group:
in the formula, qflashLethality as a vapor cloud explosion incident; i isflashHeat radiation flux for a flash fire, kW/m2(ii) a t is the exposure time of the victim, s; qHMJ/Nm for natural gas heating value3(ii) a λ is the heat transfer coefficient; and r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point.
Further, the S5 specifically includes:
calculating the personal risk according to the following sixth relational model:
wherein, when calculating the personal risk, the object is the victim object closest to the pipe segmentCalculating, wherein in the formula, the subscript number i of i is 1,2,3,4, and the four types of leakage pore diameters are respectively small pore, middle pore, large pore and crack; j is the subscript serial number j of the accident consequence is 1,2 and 3, and the three accident consequences are pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and flash fire respectively; f. ofiThe probability of leakage occurring at different apertures is expressed as sub/(km · a); p is a radical ofjProbability of occurrence of different accident consequences; q. q.sjThe fatality rate of different accident consequences.
In a second aspect, the present invention also provides a personal risk calculation system for an oil pipeline, comprising:
the aperture leakage probability determining module is used for determining the leakage probability of different leakage apertures aiming at different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline;
the ignition probability calculation module is used for calculating the ignition probability of the leaked oil product after the pipeline is leaked;
the leakage accident occurrence probability calculation module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the ignition probability of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited;
the accident consequence lethality rate calculation module is used for calculating the lethality rates of different accident consequences;
and the personal risk calculation module is used for calculating personal risks according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
In a third aspect, the present invention also provides an electronic device, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method for calculating personal risk of an oil pipeline according to the first aspect.
In a fourth aspect, the invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for personal risk calculation of an oil pipeline according to the first aspect.
According to the technical scheme, the individual risk calculation method of the oil pipeline comprises the following steps: determining the probability of leakage of different leakage apertures aiming at different leakage apertures of an oil pipeline; calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline is leaked; according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product, aiming at different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited, calculating the occurrence probability of the different accident consequences; calculating the fatality rate of different accident consequences; and calculating the personal risk according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences. Therefore, the method comprehensively considers the occurrence probability of leakage with different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences to carry out the individual risk calculation of the oil pipeline, so that the calculated individual risk calculation result is more accurate and effective and has higher reference value.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for calculating personal risk of an oil pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of three accident types determined based on factors such as immediate ignition, delayed ignition, space limitations, etc. after a pipe leak;
FIG. 3 is a schematic of the distance between a victim target and a pipe;
FIG. 4 is another flow chart of a method for personal risk calculation of an oil pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a personal risk calculation system for oil pipelines according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to yet another embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention provides a personal risk calculation method for an oil pipeline, which comprehensively considers different leakage apertures and different accident consequences to carry out personal risk calculation on the oil pipeline, and the obtained personal risk calculation result has higher reference value. The method for calculating personal risk of an oil pipeline provided by the invention is explained in detail by specific embodiments.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating personal risk of an oil pipeline, referring to fig. 1, the method including the steps of:
step 101: and determining the probability of leakage of different leakage apertures aiming at different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline.
In this step, the leak pore size of the oil pipeline is generally in 4 types: small pores, medium pores, large pores and cracks. Wherein the representative value of the pores is 6.4 mm; representative value of mesopores 25 mm; the representative value of macropores is 102 mm; representative value of cracking is min [ D, 406 ]]. The leak probability for each aperture may be determined based on historical failure statistics for the pipeline enterprise. For example, the leak probability of an orifice determined based on historical failure statistics for a pipeline enterprise is 5.12 × 10-5Sub/(km. a), mesopore leakage probability of 6.83X 10-5The leakage probability of the second order/(km. a) and large pores is 3.45X 10-5Sub/(km. a), leak probability of rupture 1.45X 10-5Sub/(km. a).
Before the steps 101 to 105, the relevant data of the oil transportation pipeline required by the personal risk calculation are collected and sorted, for example, the relevant data include pipeline operation parameters, failure accident statistics, oil product related attributes, the surrounding environment of the pipeline, and the like.
Step 102: and calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline is leaked.
In this step, it should be noted that, for the leakage of the flammable liquid, the final result of the leakage event depends on the probability of being ignited, so the step needs to calculate the probability of the leakage oil being ignited after the pipeline leaks, and the specific calculation method can be referred to the following description of the preferred embodiment.
Step 103: and calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited.
In this step, referring to fig. 2, after oil leakage, the accident consequences are determined to be mainly pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and flash fire according to factors such as immediate ignition, delayed ignition, space limitation and the like. The calculation of the probability of occurrence of different accident consequences can be found in the following description of the preferred embodiments.
Step 104: the lethality of the different accident outcomes was calculated.
In this step, the fatality rate of accident consequences such as pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and flash fire needs to be calculated, and the specific calculation method can be referred to the following description of the preferred embodiment.
Step 105: and calculating the personal risk according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
In the step, the personal risk is calculated according to the probability of the leakage occurrence of different apertures, the probability of the occurrence of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences, so that the personal risk calculation of the oil pipeline is carried out by comprehensively considering the probability of the leakage occurrence of different apertures, the probability of the occurrence of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences, and the personal risk calculation result obtained by calculation is more accurate and effective and has higher reference value.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 102 is specifically implemented as follows:
calculating the probability of the oil being ignited after the pipeline leaks according to the following first relation model group:
in the formula, plightThe probability of ignition of leaked oil after pipeline leakage; m is the relative molecular mass of the leaked oil product, kg/mol; c is a constant, and an empirical value of 2.205 can be taken; q is the pipeline leakage rate, kg/s; a is the leakage area, m2；C0Is the orifice leakage coefficient; rho is the density of the oil product, kg/m3(ii) a p is the internal pressure of the pipeline, Pa; p is a radical of0Atmospheric pressure, Pa.
For example, in this example, the oil had a relative molecular mass of 0.114kg/mol and a density of 730kg/m3The leakage was mesopore leakage, the orifice leakage coefficient was 0.65, and the internal pressure of the pipe was 2 MPa. And substituting the parameters into the first relation model group, and calculating to obtain that the probability of the oil product being ignited is 0.32.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 103 is specifically implemented as follows:
calculating the occurrence probability of the three accident consequences of the pool fire, the vapor cloud explosion and the flash fire according to the following second relation model group:
ppool＝0.8plight
pVCE＝0.05plight
pflash＝0.15plight
in the formula, ppoolThe probability of the occurrence of a pool fire accident after the leaked oil product is ignited; p is a radical ofVCEThe probability of the occurrence of steam cloud explosion accidents after the leaked oil product is ignited; p is a radical offlashThe probability of the occurrence of a flashover accident after the leaked oil is ignited; p is a radical oflightThe probability of ignition of leaked oil after the pipeline leaks is shown.
For example, assuming that the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline leakage is 0.32, the probability of ignition of the oil product is 0.32, and the three equations of the second relational model group are substituted to obtain the probability of pool fire occurrence of 0.256, the probability of vapor cloud explosion occurrence of 0.016, and the probability of flash fire occurrence of 0.048.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 104 is specifically implemented as follows:
the mortality rate of the pool fire accident outcome was calculated according to the following third relationship model set:
qpool＝-14.9+2.56ln(tIpool 4/3)
Ipool＝Ipool'V(1-0.058lnr)
in the formula, qpoolMortality rate for pool fire accidents; i ispoolHeat radiation flux, kW/m, for pool fire2；Ipool' surface heat radiation flux of pool fire, kW/m2(ii) a V is a viewing angle coefficient; r is the distance of the victim from the accident point (as shown in FIG. 3), m;
calculating the fatality rate of the steam cloud explosion accident consequence according to the following fourth relation model group:
qVCE＝-77.1+6.9ln(ΔP)
in the formula, qVCELethality as a vapor cloud explosion incident; delta P is the overpressure value of the shock wave, Pa; r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point; qTIs the explosive value of a standard TNT explosive source, kJ/kg; m isdThe quality of oil products participating in explosion; hdHeat of explosion, kJ/kg;
calculating the lethality of the consequences of the flash fire accident according to the following fifth relational model group:
in the formula, qflashLethality as a vapor cloud explosion incident; i isflashHeat radiation flux for a flash fire, kW/m2(ii) a t is the exposure time of the victim, s; qHMJ/Nm for natural gas heating value3(ii) a λ is the heat transfer coefficient; and r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point.
In this embodiment, the distance between the damaged target and the pipeline is 20m, and parameters required for calculation are substituted into the third to fifth relational model groups, so that the mortality of the pool fire is 32%; the lethality of the vapor cloud explosion was 54%; the lethality of the flash fire was 21%.
In a preferred embodiment, the step 105 is specifically implemented as follows:
calculating the personal risk according to the following sixth relational model:
when the personal risk is calculated, calculation is carried out by taking a victim target closest to a pipe section as an object, in the formula, the subscript serial number i of i, which is the leakage aperture, is 1,2,3 and 4, and the four types of leakage apertures are small aperture, middle aperture, large aperture and fracture respectively; j is the subscript serial number j of the accident consequence is 1,2 and 3, and the three accident consequences are pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and flash fire respectively; f. ofiThe probability of leakage occurring at different apertures is expressed as sub/(km · a); p is a radical ofjProbability of occurrence of different accident consequences; q. q.sjThe fatality rate of different accident consequences.
In a preferred embodiment, referring to fig. 4, the method further comprises:
step 106: and determining the acceptability of the personal risk according to the calculated personal risk and a preset risk acceptance criterion.
In this step, the acceptability of the personal risk of the pipe segment is determined based on the personal risk and the risk acceptance criteria shown in table 1 below.
TABLE 1 Risk acceptance criteria
| ALARP principle | Personal risk value |
| Acceptable risk zone | IR≤1×10-6 |
| Reducing the area as much as possible | 1×10-6＜IR≤1×10-5 |
| Unacceptable risk zone | 1×10-5＜IR |
In the embodiment, the individual risk IR of the pipe segment in the embodiment is calculated to be 1.70 × 10 by combining the previously obtained different aperture leakage probabilities, different accident consequence occurrence probabilities and the death probability of the accident consequences-5Next/(km · a), the personal risk of the segment is determined to be unacceptable risk according to the risk acceptance criteria of table 1, and mandatory measures must be taken to reduce the risk.
Therefore, the oil pipeline personal risk calculation model combining different aperture leakage probabilities and different accident consequence occurrence probabilities is established in the embodiment, the calculation model is programmed and suitable for engineering practice, the calculation result can be automatically decided for a certain pipeline section in the operation period, the workload of an evaluator is reduced, and the evaluation efficiency of the oil pipeline personal risk is improved.
As can be seen from the above description, compared with the prior art, the present embodiment is based on historical accident statistics of the oil pipeline, so that the calculation process is more objective. The current situation that personal risk consideration factors are not comprehensive in calculation is solved by combining different aperture leakage probabilities, leaked oil product ignition probabilities, different accident consequence occurrence probabilities and death probabilities of accident consequences. The individual risk is calculated by taking the nearest damaged target away from the pipe section as an object, so that the result is specific to a certain risk value, and then the acceptability of the individual risk of the specific pipe section can be determined according to a risk acceptance criterion, thereby being beneficial to realizing the goal of making a decision based on risk evaluation and changing the risk management of the oil pipeline from passive to active. By establishing the individual risk calculation system of the oil conveying pipeline, the calculation process of the individual risk is programmed and automated, the workload of an evaluator is reduced, and the evaluation efficiency of the individual risk of the oil conveying pipeline is improved.
Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides a personal risk calculation system for oil pipelines, referring to fig. 5, the system comprising: the system comprises an aperture leakage probability determination module 21, an ignition probability calculation module 22 after oil leakage, a leakage accident occurrence probability calculation module 23, an accident consequence fatality rate calculation module 24 and a personal risk calculation module 25, wherein:
the aperture leakage probability determining module 21 is configured to determine, for different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline, probabilities of leakage occurring at the different leakage apertures;
the ignition probability calculation module 22 is used for calculating the ignition probability of the leaked oil after the pipeline is leaked;
the leakage accident occurrence probability calculation module 23 is configured to calculate occurrence probabilities of different accident consequences for different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product;
the accident consequence fatality rate calculation module 24 is used for calculating the fatality rates of different accident consequences;
and the personal risk calculating module 25 is used for calculating personal risks according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
In a preferred embodiment, the system further comprises a risk evaluation module for determining the acceptability of the personal risk based on the calculated personal risk and a preset risk acceptance criterion.
It should be noted that the individual risk calculation system for an oil pipeline according to this embodiment may be used to execute the individual risk calculation method for an oil pipeline according to the foregoing embodiment, and the working principle and the technical effect are similar, and specific contents may refer to the description of the foregoing embodiment and are not described herein again.
Based on the same inventive concept, another embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which specifically includes the following components, with reference to fig. 6: a processor 701, a memory 702, a communication interface 703 and a bus 704;
the processor 701, the memory 702 and the communication interface 703 complete mutual communication through the bus 704; the communication interface 703 is used for realizing information transmission between related devices such as modeling software, an intelligent manufacturing equipment module library and the like;
the processor 701 is configured to call a computer program in the memory 702, and the processor implements all the steps in the method for calculating personal risk of an oil pipeline according to the above embodiment when executing the computer program, for example, the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program:
step 101: and determining the probability of leakage of different leakage apertures aiming at different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline.
Step 102: and calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline is leaked.
Step 103: and calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited.
Step 104: the lethality of the different accident outcomes was calculated.
Step 105: and calculating the personal risk according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
Based on the same inventive concept, yet another embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, which when executed by a processor implements all the steps of the above-mentioned method for calculating a personal risk of an oil pipeline, for example, the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program:
step 101: and determining the probability of leakage of different leakage apertures aiming at different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline.
Step 102: and calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline is leaked.
Step 103: and calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited.
Step 104: the lethality of the different accident outcomes was calculated.
Step 105: and calculating the personal risk according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
It is noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The above examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method of personal risk calculation for an oil pipeline, comprising:
s1, determining the leakage probability of different leakage apertures according to different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline;
s2, calculating the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product after the pipeline leaks;
s3, calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the probability of ignition of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited;
s4, calculating the fatality rate of different accident consequences;
and S5, calculating personal risks according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
and S6, determining the acceptability of the personal risk according to the calculated personal risk and the preset risk acceptance criterion.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S1 specifically includes:
aiming at four types of leakage apertures of an oil pipeline, determining the leakage probability of the four types of leakage apertures based on historical failure statistical data of pipeline enterprises; wherein, the four types of leakage apertures are respectively small aperture, middle aperture, big aperture and cracking.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the S2 specifically includes:
calculating the probability of the oil being ignited after the pipeline leaks according to the following first relation model group:
in the formula, plightThe probability of ignition of leaked oil after pipeline leakage; m is the relative molecular mass of the leaked oil product, kg/mol; c is a constant; q is the pipeline leakage rate, kg/s; a is the leakage area, m2；C0Is the orifice leakage coefficient; rho is the density of the oil product, kg/m3(ii) a p is the internal pressure of the pipeline, Pa; p is a radical of0Atmospheric pressure, Pa.
5. The method according to claim 1 or 4, wherein the S3 specifically comprises:
calculating the occurrence probability of the three accident consequences of the pool fire, the vapor cloud explosion and the flash fire according to the following second relation model group:
ppool＝0.8plight
pVCE＝0.05plight
pflash＝0.15plight
in the formula, ppoolThe probability of the occurrence of a pool fire accident after the leaked oil product is ignited; p is a radical ofVCEThe probability of the occurrence of steam cloud explosion accidents after the leaked oil product is ignited; p is a radical offlashThe probability of the occurrence of a flashover accident after the leaked oil is ignited; p is a radical oflightThe probability of ignition of leaked oil after the pipeline leaks is shown.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the S4 specifically comprises:
the mortality rate of the pool fire accident outcome was calculated according to the following third relationship model set:
qpool＝-14.9+2.56ln(tIpool 4/3)
Ipool＝Ipool'V(1-0.058lnr)
in the formula, qpoolMortality rate for pool fire accidents; i ispoolHeat radiation flux, kW/m, for pool fire2；Ipool' surface heat radiation flux of pool fire, kW/m2(ii) a V is a viewing angle coefficient; r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point;
calculating the fatality rate of the steam cloud explosion accident consequence according to the following fourth relation model group:
qVCE＝-77.1+6.9ln(ΔP)
in the formula, qVCELethality as a vapor cloud explosion incident; delta P is the overpressure value of the shock wave, Pa; r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point; qTIs the explosive value of a standard TNT explosive source, kJ/kg; m isdThe quality of oil products participating in explosion; hdHeat of explosion, kJ/kg;
calculating the lethality of the consequences of the flash fire accident according to the following fifth relational model group:
in the formula, qflashLethality as a vapor cloud explosion incident; i isflashHeat radiation flux for a flash fire, kW/m2(ii) a t is the exposure time of the victim, s; qHMJ/Nm for natural gas heating value3(ii) a λ is the heat transfer coefficient; and r is the distance, m, from the victim to the accident point.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the S5 specifically includes:
calculating the personal risk according to the following sixth relational model:
when the personal risk is calculated, calculation is carried out by taking a victim target closest to a pipe section as an object, in the formula, the subscript serial number i of i, which is the leakage aperture, is 1,2,3 and 4, and the four types of leakage apertures are small aperture, middle aperture, large aperture and fracture respectively; j is the subscript serial number j of the accident consequence is 1,2 and 3, and the three accident consequences are pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and flash fire respectively; f. ofiThe probability of leakage occurring at different apertures is expressed as sub/(km · a); p is a radical ofjProbability of occurrence of different accident consequences; q. q.sjThe fatality rate of different accident consequences.
8. A personal risk calculation system for an oil pipeline, comprising:
the aperture leakage probability determining module is used for determining the leakage probability of different leakage apertures aiming at different leakage apertures of the oil pipeline;
the ignition probability calculation module is used for calculating the ignition probability of the leaked oil product after the pipeline is leaked;
the leakage accident occurrence probability calculation module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of different accident consequences according to the ignition probability of the leaked oil product and the different accident consequences after the oil pipeline is leaked and ignited;
the accident consequence lethality rate calculation module is used for calculating the lethality rates of different accident consequences;
and the personal risk calculation module is used for calculating personal risks according to the occurrence probability of leakage of different apertures, the occurrence probability of different accident consequences and the fatality rate of different accident consequences.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the steps of the method for personal risk calculation of an oil pipeline according to any of claims 1 to 7 are implemented when the program is executed by the processor.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for personal risk calculation of an oil pipeline according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111859254A (en) * | 2020-07-15 | 2020-10-30 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Oil pipeline limited space leakage accident consequence calculation method and system |
| CN112668182A (en) * | 2020-12-28 | 2021-04-16 | 西安特种设备检验检测院 | Analysis method for failure of natural gas long-distance pipeline |
| CN112949070A (en) * | 2021-03-06 | 2021-06-11 | 西南石油大学 | Calculation method for chain failure consequence area of skid-mounted component in skid-mounted equipment of shale gas gathering and transportation station |
| CN113313400A (en) * | 2021-06-08 | 2021-08-27 | 中国石油大学(北京) | Accident warning method, accident warning device and storage medium |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111859254A (en) * | 2020-07-15 | 2020-10-30 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Oil pipeline limited space leakage accident consequence calculation method and system |
| CN111859254B (en) * | 2020-07-15 | 2023-05-23 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Method and system for calculating consequences of oil pipeline limited space leakage accident |
| CN112668182A (en) * | 2020-12-28 | 2021-04-16 | 西安特种设备检验检测院 | Analysis method for failure of natural gas long-distance pipeline |
| CN112668182B (en) * | 2020-12-28 | 2022-01-28 | 西安特种设备检验检测院 | Analysis method for failure of natural gas long-distance pipeline |
| CN112949070A (en) * | 2021-03-06 | 2021-06-11 | 西南石油大学 | Calculation method for chain failure consequence area of skid-mounted component in skid-mounted equipment of shale gas gathering and transportation station |
| CN113313400A (en) * | 2021-06-08 | 2021-08-27 | 中国石油大学(北京) | Accident warning method, accident warning device and storage medium |
| CN113313400B (en) * | 2021-06-08 | 2023-12-15 | 中国石油大学(北京) | Accident warning method, device and storage medium |
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Effective date of registration: 20231227 Address after: 100728 No. 22 North Main Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing, Chaoyangmen Applicant after: CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL Corp. Applicant after: Sinopec (Dalian) Petrochemical Research Institute Co.,Ltd. Address before: 100728 No. 22 North Main Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing, Chaoyangmen Applicant before: CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL Corp. Applicant before: DALIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF PETROLEUM AND PETROCHEMICALS, SINOPEC Corp. |