CN111859254A - Oil pipeline limited space leakage accident consequence calculation method and system - Google Patents

Oil pipeline limited space leakage accident consequence calculation method and system Download PDF

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CN111859254A
CN111859254A CN202010683666.7A CN202010683666A CN111859254A CN 111859254 A CN111859254 A CN 111859254A CN 202010683666 A CN202010683666 A CN 202010683666A CN 111859254 A CN111859254 A CN 111859254A
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张圣柱
魏利军
王如君
曹旭
桑海泉
杨春生
宋占兵
程希
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China Academy of Safety Science and Technology CASST
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Abstract

The application discloses a method and a system for calculating the leakage accident consequence of a limited space of an oil pipeline, which comprise a search module, a data storage module and a leakage accident consequence calculation module, wherein the data storage module stores a mapping table of oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate, area parameters and accident result types; the search module is used for acquiring the field oil body reduction rate v and the regional parameter S, judging the leakage type of the limited space, and performing matching search in a mapping table to acquire the disaster consequence H with the highest correlation degree according to the acquired oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate and regional parameter; real-time parameters such as congestion coefficients and the like are fused into the analysis of the leakage accident, so that the accuracy of the consequences of the leakage accident is improved.

Description

Oil pipeline limited space leakage accident consequence calculation method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of oil and gas pipeline transmission, in particular to a system and a method for analyzing disaster consequences of a leakage accident in a limited space of an oil and gas pipeline.
Background
Oil pipeline leakage is an oil loss accident caused by external force damage or pipeline aging and can be divided into burst leakage and continuous leakage. The sudden leakage is mostly caused by external force damage, the damage caused by the leakage accident is very large, and if the petroleum enterprise does not do rush repair work in time, the serious leakage accident is possible to happen. From the external damage cause, the damage can be divided into natural disaster and artificial damage. Wherein the natural disaster is caused by a geological disaster such as a debris flow or an earthquake. Geological disasters are very destructive, and when the natural disasters spread to oil delivery pipelines of an oil depot, the pipelines are likely to break, so that a large amount of diesel oil and gasoline are leaked.
The leakage of oil and gas pipelines is gradually influenced by urban development, so that various factors in the urban change process need to be added when leakage consequence factors are considered. Taking a certain city as an example, the population density along the pipeline is greatly changed under the objective conditions that the population scale of the certain city is continuously enlarged and the construction of suburb counties is continuously strengthened. Particularly, the population density of villages and towns with good highway infrastructure is increased more rapidly, if some villages and towns are far away from a pipeline area, 30 kilometers later are obvious and are near villages of an oil transportation depot section, because the villages and the towns are close to main roads of a city, peripheral supporting facilities are complete, a large number of unplanned houses are built, the distance between the houses and the pipeline is not more than dozens of meters, and other kindergartens are built above routes crossed by the pipelines, so that extremely serious high-risk sections are formed. When an accident in a limited space occurs, because real-time dynamic factors related to personal risk factors are not considered, a quantitative analysis model of simulation software assisted by fixed parameters in an area range is fixedly adopted, and the result is not accurate enough.
Therefore, the method and the system for analyzing and calculating the leakage accident in the limited space are provided, the congestion coefficient can be fused into the analysis of the leakage accident in real time, and the accuracy of the consequence of the leakage accident is improved.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects of the prior art, the dynamic factors related to the personal risk factors in real time are considered, and therefore the method and the system for calculating the consequences of the leakage accident of the oil pipeline limited space are provided, the congestion coefficient can be fused into the analysis of the leakage accident in real time, and the accuracy of the consequences of the leakage accident is improved.
A system for calculating the consequences of an accident caused by the leakage of a limited space of an oil pipeline,
the system comprises a searching module, a data storage module and a leakage accident consequence calculation module, wherein the data storage module stores a mapping table of oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate, area parameters and accident result type;
the search module is used for acquiring the field oil body reduction rate v and the regional parameter S, judging the leakage type of the limited space, and performing matching search in the mapping table to acquire the disaster consequence H with the highest correlation degree according to the acquired oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate and regional parameter;
The leakage accident consequence calculation module is used for acquiring congestion parameter indexes of roads in an explosion area, fitting and matching a congestion coefficient indication road area graph of the roads with an area graph of an oil pipeline, multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fitting index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value when a correlation value is larger than a preset value,
weighting new regional weight values to individual risk disaster outcomes Hi in highly correlated disaster outcomes H
The formula is adopted to calculate and obtain: ha-0.4 ∑ wi×Fi*Hi+0.6×Hi
Wi is a congestion index for indicating the busy degree of a traffic road, Fi fit index is a correlation value indicating a road area map and an area image of an oil pipeline, and Hi is a personal risk disaster result.
In the system, the region parameter types include parameters for distinguishing types of restricted spaces, and the types of the restricted spaces are: hull, house, factory building.
In the system, the leakage accident consequence calculation module is used for acquiring river information and pipeline blending information of a preset distance around the limited space position, and weighting the disaster consequence according to the river information and the pipeline blending information.
In the system, the searching module is further used for adjusting the volatility index according to the temperature coefficient and the gas flowing speed of the limited space to determine the gas explosion index, and performing gas explosion disaster result searching according to the adjusted gas explosion index.
In the system, the regional parameters further include a gas type parameter.
In the system, the searching module is used for determining the combustion type according to the change rate of the pipeline pressure, and when the pipeline pressure is kept stable, the combustion type is determined to be constant-pressure combustion.
In any of the systems described, the consequences of a leak accident include environmental risk consequences.
In any system, the fitting index is a correlation value obtained in the fitting matching process, and the correlation value is weighted in proportion according to the distance between the oil pipeline and the road.
In any of the systems described, the leak types include large hole leak types and small hole leak types and pipe complete rupture types.
The application also provides an analysis method of the leakage accident, which comprises the following steps:
a method for calculating the consequences of an accident caused by the leakage of a limited space of an oil pipeline,
step S1, constructing a mapping table of oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate, area parameters and accident result types; acquiring a field oil body reduction rate v and a regional parameter S, and judging the leakage type of a limited space;
step S2, performing matching search in a mapping table according to the obtained oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate and area parameters to obtain a disaster result H with the highest degree of correlation;
Step S3, obtaining a congestion parameter index of a road in an explosion area, fitting and matching a congestion coefficient indication road area graph of the road with an area graph of an oil pipeline, and multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fitting index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value when a correlation value is larger than a preset value;
weighting new regional weight values to individual risk disaster outcomes Hi in highly correlated disaster outcomes H
The formula is adopted to calculate and obtain: ha-0.4 ∑ wi×Fi*Hi+0.6×Hi
Wi is a congestion index for indicating the busy degree of a traffic road, Fi fit index is a correlation value indicating a road area map and an area image of an oil pipeline, and Hi is a personal risk disaster result.
Further, the region parameter types include parameters for distinguishing types of restricted spaces, the types of restricted spaces being: hull, house, factory building.
Further, river information and pipeline mixing information of a preset distance around the limited space position are obtained, and weighting is performed on disaster consequences according to the river information and the pipeline mixing information.
And further comprising the steps of adjusting the volatility index according to the temperature coefficient and the gas flow speed of the limited space to determine a gas explosion index, and executing gas explosion disaster result search according to the adjusted gas explosion index.
Further, the region parameters further include a gas type parameter.
The method further comprises the step of determining the combustion type according to the change rate of the pipeline pressure, and determining constant-pressure combustion when the pipeline pressure is kept stable.
Preferably, the consequences of a leak accident further comprise environmental risk consequences.
Preferably, the fitting index is a correlation value obtained in the fitting matching process, and the correlation value is weighted proportionally according to the distance between the oil pipeline and the road.
Preferably, the leakage types include a large hole leakage type and a small hole leakage type and a pipe complete rupture type.
Preferably, a computer storage medium is also provided, on which a computer program is stored, the computer program being executed by a processor for performing the above-mentioned method.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the system architecture of the present application
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present application
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
According to the analysis of the disaster accidents of oil pipelines in China, the accident consequences in different ranges can be caused by different accidents along with different accident situations, meteorological conditions and the like. The accident consequences under different leakage modes are different, and the leakage rate of the pipeline presents curves in different states in different leakage modes, such as small-hole leakage of the pipeline, large-hole leakage pipe and complete rupture of the pipeline. Taking small-bore leakage as an example, the critical pressure ratio of the initial stage of pipeline leakage is higher because the pipeline is operated at a normal pressure, and the ratio of the ambient pressure at the leakage hole to the pressure in the pipeline is smaller than the critical pressure ratio in the initial stage of pipeline leakage, wherein the critical pressure ratio is the ratio of the critical pressure to the stagnation pressure. For distinguishing between a steady-state leakage model and an unsteady-state leakage model, there is also extraction of different leakage model parameters.
According to analysis, the characteristic curves of different types of leakage accident types can be fitted or matched according to the characteristics of the leakage rate, the pressure and the time change so as to judge different leakage types, and meanwhile, the accident range influence result of the accident result is obtained according to the leakage types and the region parameters. The historical leakage danger range has quantitative analysis data in the historical statistical process, such as common leakage accidents, common leakage radius, death radius of 242 meters, serious injury radius of 294 meters and light injury radius of 350 meters when a pipeline is broken, and the influence of visible accidents on the population density of the surrounding range, personal risks and social risks and environmental risks have corresponding relation of risk accident curves and certain results.
Therefore, firstly, the leakage pipeline parameters are constructed to be mapped with historical risk result data in a database, and a mapping table is constructed. Fig. 2 is a schematic flow diagram of the method.
Step S1, obtaining a mapping table constructed by the oil body reduction rate v, pressure data p, time parameter t, area parameter and accident result type; judging the leakage type of the limited space according to the field oil body reduction rate v, the pressure parameter p, the time t and the regional parameter S; the pressure data may be a rate of change of pressure.
Step S2, performing matching search in a mapping table according to the obtained oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate and area parameters to obtain a disaster result H with the highest degree of correlation;
step S3, obtaining a congestion parameter index of a road in an explosion area, fitting and matching a congestion coefficient indication road area graph of the road with an area graph of an oil pipeline, and multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fitting index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value when a correlation value is larger than a preset value;
weighting new regional weight values to individual risk disaster outcomes Hi in highly correlated disaster outcomes H
The formula is adopted to calculate and obtain: ha-0.4 ∑ wi×Fi*Hi+0.6×Hi
Wi is a congestion index for indicating the busy degree of a traffic road, Fi fit index is a correlation value indicating a road area map and an area image of an oil pipeline, and Hi is a personal risk disaster result.
Preferably, acquiring congestion parameter indexes of roads in an explosion area, overlapping and matching a road map indicated by a congestion coefficient of the road with an area graph of an oil pipeline, wherein the distance range between the oil pipeline and the road map is considered in the overlapping and matching process, and when a correlation value is greater than a preset value, multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fit index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value; and weighting the accident range curve of the risk accident evaluation result terminal, for example, weighting accident consequences with personal risk in disaster consequences in historical accident results. And calculating the disaster consequence with high weighted relevance of the new area weight value by adopting the following formula: ha-0.4 ∑ w i×Fi*Hi+0.6×Hi(1)
Wi is a congestion index, Fi is a matching index, and Hi is a searched personal risk result parameter.
The result parameters are combined with the social risk accident to obtain the overall disaster effect of the leakage accident of the limited space.
Acquiring the region parameters, wherein the region parameter types are used for distinguishing the types of the restricted space, and the types of the restricted space are as follows: hull, house, factory building. The model of leakage is a small-pore and large-pore leakage model or a pipeline damage leakage model.
And adjusting the volatility index according to the temperature coefficient and the gas flow speed of the limited space, determining a gas explosion parameter, obtaining a gas explosion index, and amplifying the gas explosion index in proportion. The regional parameters include an oil body type parameter.
And determining the combustion type according to the exponential change of the pipeline pressure, and determining constant pressure combustion when the pipeline pressure is kept stable. The result Hi of the search is weighted with the calculation result of the input parameter or SD software. The evaluation parameters of the explosion or disaster consequences can also be obtained separately by means of evaluation scores of an expert database and/or system simulations.
For the acquisition of the traffic jam parameters in a distance range in a certain range, traffic flow monitoring data in unit time can be adopted, and similarly, image monitoring data of front and rear frames can also be adopted and combined with the location data according to the change condition of the front and rear frame data, so that the jam coefficient of the road section is reflected, and the jam coefficient can be set to be from [1, 4 ].
Acquiring frame data in an image in a road, setting pixel coordinates of each evaluation period p (x, y) as (x, y), and using the number of frames and the current period pc(x, y) quantizes p (x, y) and takes the previous period pf(x, y) analyzing the traffic state and the stability of the pixel, wherein at the end of the current period, the current period is changed into a new previous period, and the previous period is reset according to the feedback traffic state and is changed into a new current period;
the current traffic state and the stability of the pixels are described by installing a counter and performing adaptive updating; after the estimation period is set, three counters f (x, y), d (x, y) and h (x, y) are defined as the estimation period, f (x, y) refers to the ordinal number of the current frame, d (x, y) refers to the number of times of foreground in the estimation period frame, a counter h (x, y) records the number of times of the pixel detection state changing from background to foreground, and the change is carried out through hf(x，y)+hc(x, y) at t- (f)f(x，y)+fc(x, y)) and t:
Figure BDA0002586477520000071
where s (x, y) is the current state of the urban traffic scene, and d (x, y) ═ df(x，y)+dc(x，y)，f(x，y)＝ff(x，y)+fc(x, y), the value p at the coordinates (x, y) at the end of the current evaluation periodf(x, y) should be updated according to the stability and the current traffic state.
After obtaining a certain range of data, matching the area map, wherein the matching of the area map can be carried out to obtain related matching parameters, and the related matching parameters are superposed into the personal risk accident range parameters.
In addition, in step S3, river information and pipeline blending information are acquired at a preset distance around the restricted space position, and the river information and the pipeline blending information are proportionally amplified.
The oil gas pipeline and other pipeline culverts around the line form the position that parallels or intersects, in case the oil leaks to form airtight space in the pipe network, can produce huge destructive power, and the airtight space of underground pipe network then can enlarge the destructive power of explosion, has enlarged the harmfulness of consequence to a certain extent.
Meanwhile, the consequences of environmental factors are considered, and once an oil pipeline leaks when the pipeline in a limited space passes through rivers, water source protection areas, crop protection areas, planting areas and breeding areas, serious environmental damage can be caused, so that in the evaluation result, the section with large environmental risk influence needs to be evaluated, and the environmental consequences have step characteristics. For this reason, when the oil pipeline leaks, the evaluation is carried out by adopting a step function mode for weighting,
Figure BDA0002586477520000081
Alternatively, the weighting process may be performed directly on the individual Hi risk as a weighted basis to obtain a corrected parameter result.
Example 2
The system of the present application according to fig. 1, a system for the consequences of a leak accident in a confined space of an oil pipeline, said system comprising a search module, a data storage module and a leak accident consequence calculation module,
the data storage module stores a mapping table of oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate, area parameters and accident result types;
the search module is used for acquiring the field oil body reduction rate v, the pressure change rate and the regional parameter S, judging the leakage type of the limited space, and performing matching search in a mapping table to acquire the disaster consequence H with the highest correlation degree according to the acquired oil body reduction rate, the pressure change rate and the regional parameter;
the leakage accident consequence calculation module is used for acquiring congestion parameter indexes of roads in an explosion area, fitting and matching a congestion coefficient indication road area graph of the roads with an area graph of an oil pipeline, multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fitting index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value when a correlation value is larger than a preset value,
the new regional weight value is weighted to the individual risk disaster outcome Hi in the highly relevant disaster outcome H,
The formula is adopted to calculate and obtain: ha-0.4 ∑ wi×Fi*Hi+0.6×Hi
Wi is a congestion index used for indicating the busy degree of a traffic road, and Fi fit index is a correlation value indicating a road area image and an oil pipeline area image and a Hi individual risk disaster result.
The result parameters are added to be combined with the social risk accidents, so that the overall disaster effect of the leakage accidents of the limited space is obtained.
Acquiring the region parameters, wherein the region parameter types are used for distinguishing the types of the restricted spaces, and the types of the restricted spaces are as follows: hull, house, factory building. The model of leakage is a small-pore and large-pore leakage model or a pipeline damage leakage model.
And adjusting the volatility index according to the temperature coefficient and the gas flow speed of the limited space, determining a gas explosion parameter, obtaining a gas explosion index, and amplifying the gas explosion index in proportion. The regional parameters include an oil body type parameter.
And determining the combustion type according to the exponential change of the pipeline pressure, and determining constant pressure combustion when the pipeline pressure is kept stable. The result Hi of the search is weighted with the calculation result of the input parameter or SD software. The evaluation parameters of the explosion or disaster consequences can also be obtained separately by means of evaluation scores of an expert database and/or system simulations.
For the acquisition of the traffic jam parameters in a distance range in a certain range, traffic flow monitoring data in unit time can be adopted, and similarly, image monitoring data of front and rear frames can also be adopted and combined with the location data according to the change condition of the front and rear frame data, so that the jam coefficient of the road section is reflected, and the jam coefficient can be set to be from [1, 4 ].
Acquiring frame data in an image in a road, setting pixel coordinates of each evaluation period p (x, y) as (x, y), and using the number of frames and the current period pc(x, y) quantizes p (x, y) and takes the previous period pf(x, y) analyzing the traffic state and the stability of the pixel, wherein at the end of the current period, the current period is changed into a new previous period, and the previous period is reset according to the feedback traffic state and is changed into a new current period;
the current traffic state and the stability of the pixels are described by installing a counter and performing adaptive updating; after the estimation period is set, three counters f (x, y), d (x, y) and h (x, y) are defined as the estimation period, f (x, y) refers to the ordinal number of the current frame, d (x, y) refers to the number of times of foreground in the estimation period frame, a counter h (x, y) records the number of times of the pixel detection state changing from background to foreground, and the change is carried out through h f(x，y)+hc(x, y) at t- (f)f(x，y)+fc(x, y)) and t:
Figure BDA0002586477520000101
where s (x, y) is the current state of the urban traffic scene, and d (x, y) ═ df(x，y)+dc(x，y)，f(x，y)＝ff(x，y)+fc(x, y), the value p at the coordinates (x, y) at the end of the current evaluation periodf(x, y) should be updated according to the stability and the current traffic state.
After obtaining data in a certain range, matching of the area map is performed, and the matching of the area map can be performed to obtain related matching parameters, and the related matching parameters are superposed into the personal risk accident range parameters.
Furthermore, river information and pipeline blending information of a preset distance around the limited space position are acquired, and the river information and the pipeline blending information are proportionally amplified.
The oil gas pipeline and other pipeline culverts around the line form the position that parallels or intersects, in case the oil leaks to form airtight space in the pipe network, can produce huge destructive power, and the airtight space of underground pipe network then can enlarge the destructive power of explosion, has enlarged the harmfulness of consequence to a certain extent.
Meanwhile, the consequences of environmental factors are considered, the pipeline in a limited space is guaranteed, and when the pipeline passes through rivers, water source protection areas, crop protection areas, planting areas and breeding areas, once the oil pipeline leaks, serious environmental damage can be caused, so that in the evaluation result, the section with larger environmental risk influence needs to be evaluated, and the step characteristic can be caused to the environmental consequences. For this reason, when the oil pipeline leaks, the evaluation is carried out by adopting a step function mode for weighting,
Figure BDA0002586477520000102
Optionally, the weighting process may be performed directly on the basis of the individual Hi risk as a weighted basis to obtain a corrected parameter result.
Based on the examples described above, there is also provided in one embodiment a computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the program, implements any one of the video playing methods in the embodiments described above.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes in the methods of the embodiments described above may be implemented by a computer program to instruct associated hardware, where the program may be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and in the embodiments of the present invention, the program may be stored in the storage medium of a computer system and executed by at least one processor in the computer system to implement the processes including the embodiments of the video playing methods described above. The storage medium may be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), or the like.
Accordingly, in an embodiment, a storage medium is further provided, on which a computer program is stored, wherein the program is executed by a processor to implement any one of the video playing methods in the above embodiments.
The technical features of the embodiments described above may be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the embodiments described above are not described, but should be considered as being within the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. The utility model provides a limited space of oil pipeline leaks accident consequence computing system which characterized in that:
the system comprises a searching module, a data storage module and a leakage accident consequence calculation module, wherein the data storage module stores a mapping table of oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate, area parameters and accident result type;
The search module is used for acquiring the field oil body reduction rate v, the pressure change rate P and the regional parameter S, judging the leakage type of the limited space, performing matching search in a mapping table to acquire the disaster consequence H with the highest correlation degree according to the acquired oil body reduction rate, the pressure change rate and the regional parameter;
the leakage accident consequence calculation module is used for acquiring congestion parameter indexes of roads in an explosion area, fitting and matching a congestion coefficient indication road area graph of the roads with an area graph of an oil pipeline, multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fitting index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value when a correlation value is larger than a preset value, weighting a personal risk disaster result Hi in a disaster consequence H with high correlation with a new area weight value,
the formula is adopted to calculate and obtain: ha-0.4 ∑ wi×Fi*Hi+0.6×HiIn the formula
Wi is a congestion index used for indicating the busy degree of a traffic road, Fi attaching index is a correlation value indicating a road area image and an oil pipeline area image, and Hi is a personal risk disaster result.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein the region parameter types include parameters for distinguishing a type of a restricted space as: hull, house, factory building.
3. The system of claim 1, wherein the leakage incident consequence calculation module is configured to obtain river information and pipeline blending information for a predetermined distance around the restricted spatial location, and perform weighting on the disaster consequence according to the river information and the pipeline blending information.
4. The system of claim 1, wherein the search module is further configured to adjust the volatility index based on the temperature coefficient and the gas flow rate of the confined space to determine a gas explosion index, and to perform a gas explosion disaster result search based on the adjusted gas explosion index.
5. The system of claim 1, wherein the regional parameters further comprise a gas type parameter.
6. The system of claim 1, wherein the search module is configured to determine the type of combustion based on a rate of change of the line pressure, and determine constant pressure combustion when the line pressure remains stable.
7. A system according to any of claims 1 to 6, wherein the consequences of a leak incident include environmental risk consequences.
8. The system of any of claims 1-6, wherein the fit index is a correlation value obtained during the fit matching process, the correlation value being weighted proportionally according to how far the oil pipeline is from the road.
9. The system of any of claims 1-6, wherein the leak types include a large hole leak type and a small hole leak type and a pipe full burst type.
10. A method for calculating the consequence of an accident of leakage of a limited space of an oil pipeline is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, acquiring a mapping table of oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate, area parameters and accident result types; judging the leakage type of the limited space according to the field oil body reduction rate v, the pressure change rate and the regional parameter S;
step S2, performing matching search in a mapping table according to the obtained oil body reduction rate, pressure change rate and area parameters to obtain a disaster result H with the highest degree of correlation;
step S3, obtaining a congestion parameter index of a road in an explosion area, fitting and matching a congestion coefficient indication road area graph of the road with an area graph of an oil pipeline, and multiplying the congestion coefficient by a fitting index Fi to obtain a latest area weight value when a correlation value is larger than a preset value;
the new regional weight value is weighted to the individual risk disaster outcome Hi in the highly relevant disaster outcome H,
the formula is adopted to calculate and obtain:
Ha＝0.4*∑wi×Fi*Hi+0.6×Hi
wi is a congestion index for indicating the busy degree of a traffic road, Fi fit index is a correlation value indicating a road area map and an area image of an oil pipeline, and Hi is a personal risk disaster result.
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