CN108346111B - Method and device for evaluating leakage risk of gathering and transportation pipe network - Google Patents
Method and device for evaluating leakage risk of gathering and transportation pipe network Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses a gathering and transportation pipe network leakage risk assessment method and device. The method comprises the following steps: each pipeline is taken as an evaluation unit, and the pipeline types, the conveying media and the historical leakage data of all the pipelines in the gathering and conveying pipeline network to be evaluated are obtained; obtaining the leakage rate of various pipelines according to the type of the pipelines and historical leakage data; acquiring leakage consequence influence areas of various pipelines according to the conveying medium of each pipeline; and evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network according to the leakage rate and the leakage consequence influence area of various pipelines. The embodiment of the invention objectively analyzes the leakage rate of the pipeline based on the historical leakage data, avoids introducing excessive subjective factors, then analyzes the leakage consequence influence areas of various pipelines, and evaluates the leakage risk of the gathering and transportation pipeline network based on the leakage rate and the leakage consequence influence areas, thereby not only solving the problem that the prior art cannot be applied to the risk evaluation of the gathering and transportation pipeline, but also having the advantage of high evaluation precision in the aspect of leakage rate evaluation compared with the prior art.
Description
Technical Field
The embodiment of the invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a method and a device for assessing leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipe network.
Background
The oil and gas gathering and transporting pipe network is a link for connecting various facilities of an oil and gas field and is divided into an oil outlet pipe, a gas production pipe, an oil collecting pipe, a gas collecting pipe, an oil transporting pipe, a gas transporting pipe and the like according to the conveying medium and the function of the oil and gas gathering and transporting pipe network. Compared with long-distance pipelines, the gathering and transportation pipeline has the advantages that the conveying terrain is complex, the soil property is different, the pipeline structure forms are various, the conveying medium property is different, and a plurality of pipelines are overlapped and staggered to be laid; for some old oil fields such as victory and Daqing, the production is carried out for many years, most of gathering and transportation pipelines seriously tend to age, and the problems in the design, manufacture, installation and operation are gradually exposed along with the increase of the operation time; meanwhile, with the continuous development of local economy, various pipeline pressure occupation and damage events frequently occur. Pipeline leakage accidents occur frequently, and the environmental, personal and property safety is seriously threatened. Risk evaluation is a powerful and effective measure for ensuring the safe operation of pipelines.
In the process of implementing the embodiment of the invention, the inventor finds that the existing leakage possibility evaluation methods at home and abroad mainly comprise the following steps: the API 581 method, a fault tree method based on fuzzy theory, a Kent scoring method, a risk evaluation method based on weight and the like. Wherein, the API 581 only considers the leakage caused by the pipeline operation, and the universal leakage possibility is based on the American pipeline leakage statistical data, which is not suitable for the pipeline market in China; although the fuzzy theory-based fault number method is relatively comprehensive in identification of the hazard factors, basic influence factors of the hazard factors on the risk value are difficult to obtain, a leakage possibility evaluation model is mostly based on theoretical calculation, a uniform algorithm is not provided, and reliability needs to be checked; the Kent scoring method is to refine the hazard factors of the pipeline evaluation unit and obtain the risk value of the pipeline evaluation unit by means of artificial scoring, and the method introduces excessive subjective factors, and the accuracy of the method depends on the experience capability of an evaluator to a great extent.
It can be seen that the existing leakage possibility evaluation methods are all qualitative or semi-quantitative methods, and are developed for long-distance pipelines, and the division unit is completely different from the gathering and transportation pipeline network, and due to the particularity of the gathering and transportation pipeline network, the evaluation unit is different from the long-distance pipeline network, so that the problems that the existing technology is not applicable, the evaluation accuracy in the aspect of leakage rate evaluation is poor, and the like are caused.
Disclosure of Invention
One purpose of the embodiment of the invention is to solve the problems that the prior art is qualitative or semi-quantitative, and is all directed at long-distance pipelines, so that the prior art is not suitable for risk assessment of gathering and transportation pipe networks and has poor leakage rate assessment precision.
The embodiment of the invention provides a gathering and transportation pipe network leakage risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps:
taking a single pipeline as an evaluation unit, and acquiring the pipeline types and the conveying media of all the pipelines in the gathering and conveying pipeline network to be evaluated and historical leakage data of the gathering and conveying pipeline network to be evaluated;
acquiring leakage rates of various pipelines in leakage according to the pipeline types of all the pipelines and the historical leakage data;
acquiring leakage consequence influence areas of various pipelines with leakage according to the conveying medium and the operation parameters of each pipeline;
and evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of various pipelines and the leakage result influence area.
Optionally, the historical leakage data includes: the leak mode and the type of pipe for each leak incident;
correspondingly, the step of obtaining the leakage rate of the various pipelines according to the pipeline types of all the pipelines and the historical leakage data comprises the following steps:
performing statistical analysis on the leakage mode and the pipeline type of each leakage accident to obtain the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline;
and obtaining the leakage rate of the various pipelines in the leakage mode according to the leakage rate of the various pipelines in the leakage mode.
Optionally, the historical leakage data further includes: leakage factors for each leakage incident;
correspondingly, the statistical analysis is performed on the leakage mode and the pipeline type of each leakage accident, and the obtaining of the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline comprises the following steps:
according to the leakage factors of each leakage accident, combining the leakage mode of each leakage accident and the type of the pipeline, and acquiring a first leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline caused by each leakage factor;
and obtaining the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline according to the first leakage rate.
Optionally, the obtaining of the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline according to the first leakage rate includes:
acquiring a preset weight value of each leakage factor;
obtaining the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline according to the preset weight value of each leakage factor and the following formula;
wherein, Pj aA leak rate at which a jth leak mode occurs for a class a pipeline; wiA preset weight value for the ith leakage factor;
a first leak rate for a jth leak mode occurring for a class a pipeline resulting from an ith leak factor; h is the number of leakage factors.
Optionally, the obtaining of the leakage consequence influence area of the leakage of each type of pipeline according to the transmission medium of each pipeline includes:
acquiring a leakage consequence influence area of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to a conveying medium of each pipeline;
and acquiring the leakage consequence influence area of the various pipelines in leakage according to the leakage consequence influence area of the various pipelines in the various leakage modes.
Optionally, the obtaining, according to the transmission medium of each pipeline, a leakage consequence influence area of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode includes:
acquiring the leakage speed of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to the conveying medium of each pipeline;
and acquiring the leakage consequence influence area of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to the leakage speed of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode.
Optionally, the obtaining, according to the leakage speed of each leakage mode of each pipeline in each type of pipeline, the leakage result influence area of each leakage mode of each pipeline in each type of pipeline includes:
dividing all leakage modes into a continuous leakage mode and an instantaneous leakage mode according to a preset division rule;
when the leakage mode is a continuous leakage mode, acquiring the maximum leakage amount of each pipeline in each type of pipeline according to the leakage mode and the leakage speed;
acquiring a leakage consequence influence area when each pipeline in each type of pipeline has the leakage mode according to the maximum leakage amount of each pipeline in each type of pipeline;
and/or the presence of a gas in the gas,
when the leakage mode is the instantaneous leakage mode, correcting the leakage speed according to a preset correction rule;
and acquiring a leakage consequence influence area when each pipeline in each type of pipelines has the leakage mode according to the corrected leakage speed.
Optionally, the evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate and the leakage result influence area of the leakage of various pipelines includes:
evaluating the leakage risk value R of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the following formula;
wherein, FMModifying the coefficients for the management system; paThe leakage rate of leakage of the a-th pipeline; caThe leakage consequence influence area of the a-type pipeline is defined; n is the number of pipe types.
Optionally, the method further includes:
and evaluating the leakage risk value of each gathering and transporting pipeline according to a minimum evaluation unit, namely the leakage rate of each gathering and transporting pipeline and the leakage result influence area.
The embodiment of the invention provides a gathering and transportation pipeline leakage risk assessment device, which comprises:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the pipeline types and the conveying media of all pipelines in the gathering and conveying pipe network to be evaluated and the leakage data of the gathering and conveying pipe network to be evaluated;
the first processing module is used for acquiring leakage rates of various pipelines according to the pipeline types of all the pipelines and the leakage data;
the second processing module is used for acquiring leakage consequence influence areas of various pipelines in leakage according to the conveying medium and the operation parameters of the pipelines;
and the evaluation module is used for evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of various pipelines with leakage and the leakage result influence area.
According to the technical scheme, the method and the device for evaluating the leakage risk of the gathering and transportation pipe network objectively analyze the leakage rate of the pipeline based on historical leakage data, avoid introducing excessive subjective factors, analyze the leakage consequence influence areas of the pipelines with different transportation types and evaluate the leakage risk of the gathering and transportation pipe network based on the leakage rate and the leakage consequence influence areas.
Drawings
The features and advantages of the present invention will be more clearly understood by reference to the accompanying drawings, which are illustrative and not to be construed as limiting the invention in any way, and in which:
fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for evaluating leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipe network according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for evaluating leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipe network according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for evaluating leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipe network according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram illustrating a device for evaluating a leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipe network according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without any inventive step based on the embodiments of the present invention, are within the scope of the present invention.
Example one
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for evaluating leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 1, the method may be implemented by a processor, and specifically includes the following steps:
110. acquiring the pipeline types and the transmission media of all pipelines in the gathering and transmission pipeline network to be evaluated and historical leakage data of the gathering and transmission pipeline network to be evaluated;
it is understood that in actual operation, if a leakage accident occurs in a certain gathering and transportation pipeline in the gathering and transportation pipeline network, a worker can record specific leakage accident data to the memory by using a log or the like to form historical leakage data.
When the gathering and transportation pipe network is evaluated, historical data in a preset time period of the gathering and transportation pipe network are collected from a storage, then the historical data are sorted, counted and analyzed, and further the historical leakage rate of leakage of various types of pipelines is obtained, wherein the preset time can be 5 years, 8 years and the like.
In addition, the method for dividing the pipeline type comprises the following steps: all gathering and transportation pipelines can be divided by adopting a plurality of preset division rules, and any pipeline also belongs to a plurality of pipeline types; for example: when the pipeline is divided according to the size of the pipe diameter, the pipeline belongs to the type of the pipeline with the pipe diameter larger than 300 mm; when the pipeline is divided according to the service life of the pipeline, the pipeline belongs to the type of the pipeline with the service life of more than 10 years.
120. Acquiring leakage rates of various pipelines in leakage according to the pipeline types of all the pipelines and the historical leakage data;
it is understood that the statistical analysis result of step 110 may be stored in a database or a table, and then the historical leakage frequency associated with the type of the pipeline may be extracted from the database or the table according to the type of the pipeline, and then the historical leakage rate of the pipeline may be calculated as the leakage rate of the pipeline with the leakage.
140. According to the conveying medium of each pipeline, the leakage consequence influence area of leakage of various pipelines is obtained, wherein the conveying medium comprises: liquids and gases;
it should be noted that, a leakage consequence calculation model is constructed based on the pipeline parameters specified by the national standard, then the transmission medium of each pipeline is used as the input of the leakage consequence calculation model, and the model outputs the corresponding leakage consequence influence area.
150. And evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of various pipelines and the leakage result influence area.
It is easy to understand that the leakage risk value is obtained through a calculation model based on two factors of the leakage rate of various pipelines and the leakage consequence influence area.
Therefore, the leakage rate of the pipeline is objectively analyzed based on historical leakage data, excessive subjective factors are prevented from being introduced, then the leakage consequence influence areas of the pipelines of different conveying types, which are leaked, are analyzed, the leakage risk of the gathering and conveying pipeline network is evaluated based on the leakage rate and the leakage consequence influence areas, and compared with the prior art, the problem that the method in the prior art is not suitable for the gathering and conveying pipeline is solved.
Example two
Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipeline according to another embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 2, on the basis of the first embodiment, the principle of calculating the leakage rate of each type of pipeline includes the following steps:
210. acquiring historical leakage data of a gathering and transportation pipe network, wherein the historical leakage data comprises a leakage mode and a pipeline type of each leakage accident;
it is understood that, based on the records before and after the occurrence of the leakage accident, the recorded contents are, for example: the number of the leakage accident, the occurrence time, the occurrence location, the type of the pipeline where the leakage occurs, the leakage pattern, etc., may construct historical leakage data.
220. The method comprises the following steps of performing statistical analysis on leakage modes and pipeline types of all leakage accidents to obtain historical leakage rates of the leakage modes of various pipelines, specifically:
according to accident leakage factors further included in the historical leakage data, combining leakage modes of all leakage accidents and types of pipelines, and obtaining a first leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline caused by each leakage factor;
configuring a preset weight value for each leakage factor according to different influence degrees of the leakage factor in the gathering and transportation pipe network on damage to the pipe network, and further acquiring the leakage rate of each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to the preset weight value of each leakage factor and the first leakage rate;
wherein, Pj aA leak rate at which a jth leak mode occurs for a class a pipeline; wiA preset weight value for the ith leakage factor;
a first leak rate for a jth leak mode occurring for a class a pipeline resulting from an ith leak factor; h is the number of leakage factors.
230. And obtaining the leakage rate of each type of pipeline according to the leakage rate of each type of pipeline in each leakage mode.
It is understood that the historical leakage rate of each type of pipeline can be obtained by summing the historical leakage rates of each leakage mode.
Therefore, the leakage rate of the gathering and transportation pipe network is evaluated through historical leakage data, and excessive subjective factors are avoided; in addition, the embodiment also configures a corresponding weight value for the leakage factor to improve the accuracy of the statistical historical leakage rate, so as to improve the evaluation accuracy of the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipeline network.
EXAMPLE III
Fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of a gathering and transportation pipeline leakage risk assessment method according to another embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 2, on the basis of the first embodiment and the second embodiment, the principle of calculating the leakage consequence influence area of each type of pipeline with leakage in the embodiment includes the following steps:
310. acquiring the leakage speed of each pipeline in each leakage mode according to the conveying type and the operating parameters (such as the maximum conveying pressure and temperature of the pipeline and the density of a conveying medium) of each pipeline;
it should be noted that, for pipelines of different transport types, since transport media are different, parameters at the time of transport are different according to the relevant regulations, and further leak rates at the time of leakage are different, it is necessary to analyze the pipelines separately for the different transport types.
320. Dividing all leakage modes into a continuous leakage mode and an instantaneous leakage mode according to a preset division rule, and judging whether the leakage mode analyzed currently is the continuous leakage mode or the instantaneous leakage mode;
it should be noted that different leakage types correspond to different leakage situations, so that the leakage situation needs to be analyzed, and for continuous leakage, because the leakage has a continuous characteristic, the leakage amount can be calculated according to the specified longest maintenance period, so as to evaluate the affected area; whereas for instantaneous leaks, the area of influence can be evaluated in terms of the leak rate, since its duration is very short. Specifically, as shown in step 330-step 360:
330. when the leakage mode is a continuous leakage mode, acquiring the maximum leakage amount of each pipeline in each type of pipeline according to the leakage mode and the leakage speed;
340. acquiring a leakage consequence influence area when each pipeline in each type of pipeline has the leakage mode according to the maximum leakage amount of each pipeline in each type of pipeline;
350. when the leakage mode is the instantaneous leakage mode, correcting the leakage speed according to a preset correction rule;
360. acquiring a leakage consequence influence area when each pipeline in each type of pipeline has the leakage mode according to the corrected leakage speed;
370. and acquiring the leakage consequence influence area of each type of pipeline in leakage according to the leakage consequence influence area of each type of pipeline in each leakage mode.
It should be noted that, the leakage consequence influence area of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline should be obtained by means of weighted average according to the leakage probability of the type of pipeline
In addition, it is understood that when evaluating a pipeline or pipelines, the leakage risk value of the target pipeline can be evaluated according to one or more leakage rates of leakage and leakage consequence influence areas of the target pipeline.
It can be seen that, the present embodiment is based on the established evaluation model, and takes the transportation type of the pipeline as an input, and automatically outputs the affected area, for example: area, etc.; moreover, by dividing the conveying medium, the accuracy of the evaluation is further improved.
Example four
The present embodiment systematically introduces the technical solutions of the present invention:
firstly, the basic idea of the scheme is as follows: classifying all gathering and transporting pipelines (pipelines) in the gathering and transporting pipe network, (classifying according to pipe diameters and service life), classifying leakage reasons, and determining a leakage mode; counting the leakage frequency of a certain type of pipeline caused by a certain leakage reason (factor) in a certain leakage mode within M (M is more than or equal to 5) and the length of the pipeline, and calculating the leakage probability of the pipeline caused by the leakage reason in the leakage mode; calculating the total leakage probability and the leakage consequence influence area of a certain type of pipeline based on the leakage probability; and calculating the risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network according to the leakage probability and the leakage result.
The following is a detailed description of the various steps of the present invention:
s1 classification of gathering and transportation pipeline type
The data of historical leakage accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline are counted, wherein the data comprises the number of leakage accidents occurring every year, the name of the pipeline with the leakage accidents occurring, the outer diameter D, the transportation medium, the service life, the length L, the reasons for the leakage occurrence, the leakage mode (the division standard is shown in table 1 and is divided into small hole leakage, large hole leakage and breakage, and j is 1,2 and 3 in the following) and the like.
TABLE 1 gathering and transportation pipeline leak pattern partitioning
And (4) counting historical leakage data, and dividing the pipeline type of the pipeline into n types. The oil field oil gas gathering and transportation pipeline is recommended to be classified according to different pipe diameters and service lives, and the pipe diameters are divided into three pipe diameters of less than or equal to 150mm, 200 plus 300mm and more than 300mm according to the characteristics of the pipe diameters of the oil field oil gas gathering and transportation pipeline; according to the service life of the pipeline, the pipeline is divided into three pipelines of 0-5 years, 5-10 years and more than 10 years. The pipelines with the same pipe diameter and service life range belong to 9 types in total.
The transport type of the pipe (transport medium) is divided into a gas pipe and a liquid pipe according to the transport medium.
S2, classifying the leakage reasons based on the leakage accident
Each leakage accident has a corresponding leakage reason, and if a large amount of leakage reason data is adopted, the calculation efficiency of the leakage rate evaluation model is relatively low.
Therefore, the present embodiment classifies the factors that cause the occurrence of the leak on the basis of the statistics of the leak data. The leakage factors of the gathering and transportation pipeline are mainly classified into five types, including five leakage factors (i ═ 1,2, …, 5) such as pipe body defects (manufacturing and construction), misoperation, corrosion (internal and external corrosion), geological disasters, third party damage and the like.
S3, calculating the leakage probability of a certain type of pipeline
S31, calculating leakage modes of j (small hole leakage, large hole leakage and rupture) of the ith leakage mode of the a (a is 1,2, …, n) type pipeline caused by the ith leakage reason within M years (M is more than or equal to 5) according to historical accident statisticsLeakage probability (leakage rate)
And the leakage probability P of the jth leakage mode (small hole leakage, large hole leakage, rupture) of a certain pipelinejiThe calculation formula is as follows:
wherein i is different leakage causes, i is 1,2, …, 5; j is different leakage modes, j is 1,2 and 3, and respectively represents small hole leakage, large hole leakage and fracture; a is a pipeline type, a is 1,2, …, n; m is the statistical age, and M is more than or equal to 5;
the leakage frequency of the jth leakage mode of the ith pipeline caused by the ith leakage reason in M years; n is a radical ofjiThe leakage frequency of the jth leakage mode of a certain pipeline caused by the ith leakage reason in M years; l isaIs the total length of the a-th class gathering and transporting pipeline, and L is the total length of a certain gathering and transporting pipeline.
S32, presetting weight value W according to different leakage reasons of pipelineiCalculating the leakage probability P of the jth leakage mode of a certain pipelinejAnd the leakage probability P of the jth leakage mode of the class a pipelinej aThe calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, WiThe preset weight values for different leakage causes,
s33, calculating the leakage probability P of a certain pipeline and the leakage probability P of leakage of the a-th pipelineaThe calculation formula is as follows:
s4, calculating the influence area of the leakage consequence of the gathering and transportation pipeline
S41, calculating the leakage rate of each pipeline
For a liquid line, the leak rate is calculated as follows:
in the formula, qjThe leakage speed in the jth leakage mode; cdTaking the liquid leakage coefficient as 0.61; rho is the density of the conveying medium, kg/m 3; a. thejThe breach area in leakage mode j; p is pipeline conveying pressure Pa; p is a radical of0Is at ambient pressure.
For gas pipelines, the leak rate is two kinds, namely, subsonic speed and subsonic speed:
when the gas flow rate is in the subsonic range, i.e.
Then
Otherwise the gas flow rate is in the sonic range and the leak rate is:
in the above formula, M is the relative molecular weight of the gas; k is the adiabatic index of the gas; p is the pipeline conveying pressure; cdThe gas leakage coefficient is 1.00 when the shape of the crack is circular, 0.95 when the crack is triangular and 0.90 when the crack is rectangular; r is a gas constant, J/(mol. K); t issIs the gas transmission temperature.
Area of breach AjComprises the following steps:
Aj＝πdj 2/4
in the formula (d)jSee table 1 for the leak sizes for the different leak modes.
S42, judging the type of pipeline leakage
The leakage type is divided into continuous leakage and instantaneous leakage, when j is 1, namely small hole leakage, the leakage is continuous leakage, and when j is 2,3, the time t needed when the pipeline leakage amount reaches 4500kg is judgedxIf t isx>180s is a continuous leak, otherwise it is a transient leak.
tx＝4500/Qj
In the formula, QjTo correct for the leak rate, Qj × 0.8, kg/s; (corresponding to step 350 in the third embodiment)
S43 predicting leakage quantity
If the leakage mode is small hole leakage and large hole leakage, i.e. j is 1,2, the longest leakage time tj is respectively assumed to be 60min and 40min, and the longest leakage time refers to the time from the time when the pipeline leaks to the time when maintenance personnel start to maintain, including the time when the leakage is found, the maintenance decision is made, and the time when the maintenance work is completed.
Msj＝qj×tj×60
In the formula, MsjLeakage, kg; t is tjMin is the longest leakage time.
If the leakage mode is rupture, i.e. j is 3, the leakage amount is calculated by the sum of the pipe capacity of the leakage section pipeline and the leakage amount of the leakage section pipeline which leaks for 3 minutes. Namely:
Msj＝180×qj+V·ρ
where V is the volume of the pipe from one shut-off valve to the next shut-off valve in the leak point pipeline, m 3.
S44, calculating the leakage consequence influence areas of different leakage modes
The gathering and transportation pipeline generally transports more crude oil, the water content in the crude oil can even reach more than 90 percent, and therefore only the leakage result without combustion is considered. For transient leakage:
Cj＝a(Qj)b
for persistent leaks:
Cj＝a(Msj)b
in the formula, a and b are consequence coefficients, and the variation ranges of a and b are respectively 10-500 and 0.5-1.1 according to different transportation media of the gathering and transportation pipeline.
S45, calculating the leakage consequence influence area of a certain pipeline
S45, calculating the leakage consequence influence area of a certain type of pipeline
Assuming that the total number of the a-type pipelines in the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated is k equal to 1,2, … and m, according to the calculation, the leakage consequence of the k-type pipeline under different leakage modes is CjkThe total leakage consequence C of leakage of the class a pipelineaComprises the following steps:
s46, calculating the leakage risk value R of a certain gathering and transportation pipeline and the leakage risk value R of a gathering and transportation pipe networkall
R＝FM·P·C
Wherein, FMModifying the coefficients for the management system; p is the leakage rate of leakage of a certain pipeline; and C is the leakage consequence influence area of the pipeline.
In the formula, FMModifying the coefficients for the management system; paThe leakage rate of leakage of the a-th pipeline; caThe leakage consequence influence area of the a-type pipeline is defined; n is the number of pipe types; vaIs a preset weight value of the a-th pipeline,
method embodiments are described as a series of acts or combinations for simplicity of explanation, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited by the order of acts or acts described, as some steps may occur in other orders or concurrently with other steps in accordance with the embodiments of the invention. Furthermore, those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments described in the specification are presently preferred and that no particular act is required to implement the invention.
EXAMPLE five
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram illustrating a gathering pipeline leakage risk assessment apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 4, the apparatus includes: an acquisition module 410, a first processing module 420, a second processing module 430, and an evaluation module 440, wherein:
an obtaining module 410, configured to obtain the types and transmission media of all the pipelines in the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated, and leakage data of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated;
the first processing module 420 is configured to obtain leakage rates of various types of pipelines according to the pipeline types of all the pipelines and the leakage data;
the second processing module 430 is configured to obtain a leakage consequence influence area where various pipelines leak according to the transmission medium of each pipeline;
and the evaluation module 440 is configured to evaluate the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of the leakage of each type of pipeline and the leakage consequence influence area.
It should be noted that, when a gathering and transportation pipe network in a certain gathering and transportation system is evaluated, the obtaining module 410 obtains historical leakage data of the gathering and transportation pipe network, and sends the historical leakage data to the first processing module 420, and the first processing module 420 obtains leakage rates of various types of pipelines based on historical leakage data analysis and sends the leakage rates to the evaluation module 440; the second processing module 430 calculates and obtains the leakage consequence influence area of each type of pipeline according to the conveying medium of each pipeline in combination with the stored corresponding calculation model, and sends the calculation result to the evaluation module 440, and the evaluation module 440 calculates and obtains the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network based on the received data.
It can be seen that, in the embodiment, the leakage rate of the pipeline leakage is obtained through statistical analysis of historical and objective data, so that too many subjective factors are avoided being introduced, then, the leakage consequence influence area of the pipeline leakage is obtained through analysis of pipelines of different conveying types, and the leakage risk of the gathering and transportation pipeline is evaluated based on the leakage rate and the leakage consequence influence area.
As for the apparatus embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and for the relevant points, reference may be made to the partial description of the method embodiment.
It should be noted that, in the respective components of the apparatus of the present invention, the components therein are logically divided according to the functions to be implemented thereof, but the present invention is not limited thereto, and the respective components may be newly divided or combined as necessary.
Various component embodiments of the invention may be implemented in hardware, or in software modules running on one or more processors, or in a combination thereof. In the device, the PC remotely controls the equipment or the device through the Internet, and accurately controls each operation step of the equipment or the device. The present invention may also be embodied as apparatus or device programs (e.g., computer programs and computer program products) for performing a portion or all of the methods described herein. The program for realizing the invention can be stored on a computer readable medium, and the file or document generated by the program has statistics, generates a data report and a cpk report, and the like, and can carry out batch test and statistics on the power amplifier. It should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments illustrate rather than limit the invention, and that those skilled in the art will be able to design alternative embodiments without departing from the scope of the appended claims. In the claims, any reference signs placed between parentheses shall not be construed as limiting the claim. The word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of elements or steps not listed in a claim. The word "a" or "an" preceding an element does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such elements. The invention may be implemented by means of hardware comprising several distinct elements, and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In the unit claims enumerating several means, several of these means may be embodied by one and the same item of hardware. The usage of the words first, second and third, etcetera do not indicate any ordering. These words may be interpreted as names.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above examples are only intended to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, but not to limit it; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A method for evaluating leakage risk of a gathering and transportation pipe network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring the pipeline types and the transmission media of all pipelines in the gathering and transmission pipeline network to be evaluated and historical leakage data of the gathering and transmission pipeline network to be evaluated; the historical leakage data includes: the leakage pattern, the type of pipeline and the leakage factor of each leakage accident;
according to the leakage factors of each leakage accident, combining the leakage mode of each leakage accident and the type of the pipeline, and acquiring a first leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline caused by each leakage factor;
obtaining the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline according to the first leakage rate;
obtaining the leakage rate of various pipelines according to the leakage rate of various leakage modes of various pipelines;
acquiring a leakage consequence influence area of various pipelines with leakage according to the conveying medium of each pipeline;
evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of various pipelines and the leakage result influence area;
wherein, according to the leakage rate that each kind of pipeline takes place each leakage mode, obtain the leakage rate that all kinds of pipelines take place, include:
acquiring a preset weight value of each leakage factor;
obtaining the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline according to the preset weight value of each leakage factor and the following formula;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a leak rate at which a jth leak mode occurs for a class a pipeline; wiA preset weight value for the ith leakage factor;
a first leak rate for a jth leak mode occurring for a class a pipeline resulting from an ith leak factor; h is the number of leakage factors.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the leakage consequence influence area of each type of pipeline with leakage according to the transmission medium of each pipeline comprises the following steps:
acquiring a leakage consequence influence area of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to a conveying medium of each pipeline;
and acquiring the leakage consequence influence area of the various pipelines in leakage according to the leakage consequence influence area of the various pipelines in the various leakage modes.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the step of obtaining the leakage consequence influence area of each leakage mode of each pipeline in each type of pipeline according to the transmission medium of each pipeline comprises the following steps:
acquiring the leakage speed of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to the conveying medium of each pipeline;
and acquiring the leakage consequence influence area of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode according to the leakage speed of each pipeline in each type of pipeline in each leakage mode.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the step of obtaining the leakage consequence influence area of each leakage mode of each pipeline in each type of pipeline according to the leakage speed of each leakage mode of each pipeline in each type of pipeline comprises the following steps:
dividing all leakage modes into a continuous leakage mode and an instantaneous leakage mode according to a preset division rule;
when the leakage mode is a continuous leakage mode, acquiring the maximum leakage amount of each pipeline in each type of pipeline according to the leakage mode and the leakage speed;
acquiring a leakage consequence influence area when each pipeline in each type of pipeline has the leakage mode according to the maximum leakage amount of each pipeline in each type of pipeline;
and/or the presence of a gas in the gas,
when the leakage mode is the instantaneous leakage mode, correcting the leakage speed according to a preset correction rule;
and acquiring a leakage consequence influence area when each pipeline in each type of pipelines has the leakage mode according to the corrected leakage speed.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of the leakage of each type of pipeline and the leakage consequence influence area comprises:
evaluating the leakage risk value R of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the following formula;
wherein, FMModifying the coefficients for the management system; paThe leakage rate of leakage of the a-th pipeline; caThe leakage consequence influence area of the a-type pipeline is defined; n is the number of pipe types.
6. The method according to any one of claims 1-5, further comprising:
and evaluating the leakage risk value of the target pipeline according to the leakage rate of the leakage of the target pipeline and the leakage consequence influence area.
7. A gathering pipeline leakage risk assessment device, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the pipeline types and the conveying media of all pipelines in the gathering and conveying pipe network to be evaluated and historical leakage data of the gathering and conveying pipe network to be evaluated; the historical leakage data includes: the leakage pattern, the type of pipeline and the leakage factor of each leakage accident;
a first processing module to:
according to the leakage factors of each leakage accident, combining the leakage mode of each leakage accident and the type of the pipeline, and acquiring a first leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline caused by each leakage factor;
obtaining the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each type of pipeline according to the first leakage rate;
obtaining the leakage rate of various pipelines according to the leakage rate of various leakage modes of various pipelines;
the second processing module is used for acquiring leakage consequence influence areas of various pipelines in leakage according to the conveying media of the pipelines;
the evaluation module is used for evaluating the leakage risk value of the gathering and transportation pipe network to be evaluated according to the leakage rate of various pipelines and the leakage result influence area;
the first processing module is used for acquiring the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline according to the first leakage rate in the processing process of acquiring the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline, and is specifically used for:
acquiring a preset weight value of each leakage factor;
obtaining the leakage rate of each leakage mode of each pipeline according to the preset weight value of each leakage factor and the following formula;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a leak rate at which a jth leak mode occurs for a class a pipeline; wiA preset weight value for the ith leakage factor;
a first leak rate for a jth leak mode occurring for a class a pipeline resulting from an ith leak factor; h is the number of leakage factors.
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| CN112257216B (en) * | 2019-07-05 | 2024-03-08 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Method and device for evaluating failure probability of pipeline of oil delivery station |
| CN112283595B (en) * | 2020-11-13 | 2022-07-05 | 中煤航测遥感集团有限公司 | Pipeline oil spilling path analysis method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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