CN114997757A - Port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method and system based on cascading failure - Google Patents
Port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method and system based on cascading failure Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention is suitable for the technical field of risk early warning, provides a port and petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method and a system based on cascade failure, and solves the problems that the existing petrochemical port road transportation network is easy to be disconnected after being attacked, so that traffic jam is easy to occur, and the social risk and the personal risk value of a petrochemical port area are increased; the early warning method comprises the following steps: acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture; extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes; acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of a key road network node; according to the embodiment of the invention, the importance of important nodes in the geographic network of the petrochemical port area is researched by a multi-attribute decision method to carry out comprehensive sequencing, so that the safety and the efficiency of the network are better guaranteed, the practical significance is provided for the road planning and transportation safety organization of the petrochemical port area, and the road congestion of the petrochemical port area is reduced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of risk early warning, and particularly relates to a port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method and system based on cascading failure.
Background
There are two main categories of chemical concentration zones, namely petrochemical industry parks and fine chemical industry parks. The petrochemical industry park is large in scale, usually runs at high temperature and high pressure, the medium is flammable and explosive, once an accident happens, the device in the fine chemical industry park is catastrophic, the scale of the device is relatively small, the number of the devices is large, the number of reactors and separators is large, the intermittent operation is large, the automation degree is low, and the accident is easy to happen. The types of accidents in these two types of industrial parks have some characteristics, but also some commonalities. The chemical centralized area is much larger than general chemical enterprises in accident consequence and risk due to the reasons of dense devices, large capacity of harmful substances, easy chain transmission of accidents and the like.
With the development of port waterway transportation, the existing petrochemical storage and transportation capacity is greatly released, and the era of large-scale waterway dangerous goods on the whole road is coming. The wharf is used as an important traffic flow collecting and distributing place and a transportation hub in dangerous goods, and the operation capacity which the wharf can bear is directly enough related to the efficiency of the whole dangerous goods traffic flow organization and the whole dangerous goods waterway transportation benefit. Research on port petrochemical transportation networks by applying a complex network theory shows that port petrochemical transportation geographic networks and traffic flow networks belong to complex networks. As is well known, most complex networks are loaded, and the load on the network is redistributed once the network structure changes, such as the addition or removal of a network node. Generally, the load capacity of the network nodes is limited. The failure of one node load exceeding the load capacity thereof will cause the redistribution of the load of the whole petrochemical port area transportation network, thereby generating a cascading effect, and finally causing the breakdown of a part of nodes and even the whole petrochemical port area transportation network, and the phenomenon is called cascading failure.
In real life, many security issues can be attributed to the network survivability issue that accounts for cascading failures. As a loaded complex network, researches show that the network structure of the petrochemical port area transportation network is a tree network, which means that the petrochemical port area transportation network is easily disconnected after being attacked, so that traffic jam is easy to occur, and the social risk and the personal risk of the petrochemical port area are increased.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a port and petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method and system based on cascade failure, and aims to solve the problems that an existing petrochemical port region road transportation network is easy to break down after being attacked, so that traffic jam is easy to occur, and social risks and personal risk values of a petrochemical port region are increased.
The invention is realized in this way, and the harbor petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure comprises the following steps:
acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on a port petrochemical region plan;
extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region, constructing an improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes;
and acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of the key road network node, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result, and determining a potential jam result of the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
Preferably, the method for acquiring the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on the port petrochemical region plan comprises the following steps:
retrieving a port petrochemical database, and identifying a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire diagram, wherein the port petrochemical database comprises a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire diagram;
extracting key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region plane graph and a port petrochemical region fire graph, and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes;
key road network nodes which are numbered are connected one by one on the basis of one-way lines, and are gradually connected from the port petrochemical region land road inlet and outlet to the port petrochemical region water road inlet and outlet to form a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
Preferably, the method for extracting the key road network nodes of the harbor petrochemical region plan and the harbor petrochemical region fire graph and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes specifically comprises the following steps:
traversing dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region based on a port petrochemical region plane graph and a port petrochemical region fire-fighting graph, and identifying dangerous operation network nodes through the dangerous cargo operation places, wherein the dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region comprise position nodes of dangerous cargo enterprises, dangerous cargo transportation network nodes and dangerous cargo storage nodes;
acquiring all dangerous operation road network nodes in a port petrochemical region, and carrying out hierarchical processing on all dangerous operation road network nodes based on a dangerous chemical major hazard source identification method and port dangerous cargo major hazard source supervision rules to determine the danger level of the dangerous operation road network nodes;
traversing all dangerous operation road network nodes with calculated danger levels, enabling all dangerous operation road network nodes to be arranged according to the danger levels, screening out dangerous operation road network nodes with the danger levels smaller than a preset danger threshold value based on a preset danger threshold value judgment rule, combining the dangerous operation road network nodes with the small danger levels based on a proximity principle, simplifying multiple groups of dangerous operation road network nodes with the small danger levels into one node, combining the simplified nodes and the screened dangerous operation road network nodes with the danger levels larger than the preset danger threshold value to obtain key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region, and constructing a port petrochemical region basic road network framework.
Preferably, the method for constructing an improved cascade failure model based on key road network nodes in a petrochemical region and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes specifically comprises the following steps:
setting a trigger rule and a trigger threshold of an improved cascade failure model;
calculating the adjacent weight of the key road network node, judging whether the adjacent weight of the key road network node is greater than a trigger threshold, and if so, indicating that the key road network node is in a failure state;
and identifying the failed key road network nodes, and calculating the network average efficiency of the improved cascade failure model.
Preferably, the triggering rule of the improved cascade failure model is that once a key road network node in a petrochemical region is "failed", the weights of all adjacent edges of the node are increased, the node is in a normal state, and the weights of all corresponding edges are unchanged.
Preferably, the network average efficiency formula of the calculation improved cascade failure model is as follows:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
=1,2，...
shows that each community structure is internally provided with
Individual nodes, in common throughout the network
A community structure of
When the time is in the step of time,
is shown as
Nodes in individual community structure
In the first place
State variables, coupling matrices, at time step
Indicates the connection status between the node i in the mth community structure and the node j in the S community structure if there is an edge between them
(ii) a If not, then the mobile terminal can be switched to the normal mode,
. Coefficient of coupling
，
Respectively representing the strength of the coupling relation between the interior of the community structure and the community structure, in the formula
Using Logistic functions to define local chaos phenomena in the network, i.e.
The smaller the network efficiency after a certain node fails, the larger the range and degree of influence on the whole network after the cascade failure of the certain node can be considered.
Preferably, the method for correcting the initial potential transportation risk result specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of a key road network node in the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture, and judging whether the absolute value of the initial potential transportation risk result is greater than a preset precision threshold value or not;
if so, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result; otherwise, judging that the initial potential transportation risk result tends to the real transportation risk result, and not correcting the initial potential transportation risk result.
A port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascade failure based on the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure comprises the following steps:
the basic road network architecture establishing module is used for acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on a port petrochemical region plane diagram;
the key road network node evaluation module is used for extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region, constructing an improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes;
and the transportation risk result correction module is used for acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of the key road network node, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result and determining a potential blockage result of the basic road network architecture of the port petrochemical region.
Preferably, the basic road network architecture building module includes:
the system comprises a database retrieval unit, a port petrochemical region database and a port petrochemical region fire fighting map, wherein the database retrieval unit is used for retrieving the port petrochemical database and identifying the port petrochemical region plane map and the port petrochemical region fire fighting map, and the port petrochemical database comprises the port petrochemical region plane map and the port petrochemical region fire fighting map;
the node sequence numbering unit is used for extracting key road network nodes of the harbor petrochemical region plane graph and the harbor petrochemical region fire graph and numbering the key road network nodes in sequence;
the basic road network architecture building unit is used for connecting numbered key road network nodes one by one on the basis of unidirectional lines, and gradually connecting the ports and petrochemical regions from the ports and petrochemical region land road inlets and outlets to the ports and petrochemical region water road inlets and outlets to form the port and petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
Preferably, the node order numbering unit includes:
the dangerous operation road network node identification module traverses dangerous goods operation places in the port petrochemical region based on a port petrochemical region plane graph and a port petrochemical region fire-fighting graph, and identifies dangerous operation road network nodes through the dangerous goods operation places, wherein the dangerous goods operation places in the port petrochemical region comprise position nodes of dangerous goods enterprises, dangerous goods transportation road network nodes and dangerous goods storage nodes;
the system comprises a danger level judging module, a dangerous operation road network node classifying module and a dangerous operation road network node classifying module, wherein the danger level judging module is used for acquiring all dangerous operation road network nodes in a port petrochemical region, and classifying all dangerous operation road network nodes based on a dangerous chemical major danger source identification method and port dangerous cargo major danger source supervision rules to determine the danger levels of the dangerous operation road network nodes;
the road network node screening unit is used for traversing and calculating all dangerous operation road network nodes of danger levels, enabling all dangerous operation road network nodes to be arranged according to the danger levels, screening out dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are smaller than a preset danger threshold value based on a preset danger threshold value judgment rule, combining the dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are small based on a proximity principle, simplifying a plurality of groups of dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are small into one node, combining the simplified nodes and the screened dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are larger than the preset danger threshold value to obtain key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region, and constructing a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the application mainly has the following beneficial effects:
according to the embodiment of the invention, the importance of important nodes in the geographic network of the petrochemical port area is researched through a multi-attribute decision method to carry out comprehensive sequencing, and the research result is not only beneficial to finding potential key road network nodes of the petrochemical port area and better guaranteeing the safety and efficiency of the network, but also has practical significance on road planning and transportation safety organization of the petrochemical port area, and the road congestion of the petrochemical port area is reduced, and the personal risk and the social risk of the petrochemical port area are reduced.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an implementation process of the early warning method for the transportation risk of the port petrochemical region based on the cascading failure provided by the invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating an implementation of the method for obtaining a basic road network architecture of a port petrochemical region based on a plan view of the port petrochemical region according to the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating an implementation of a method for extracting key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire graph and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes according to the method provided by the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a schematic flow chart of an implementation of the method for establishing an improved cascade failure model based on key road network nodes in a petrochemical region and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes.
Fig. 5 is a schematic flow chart of an implementation of the method for correcting the initial potential transportation risk result provided by the present invention.
Fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascading failure provided by the invention.
Fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of a basic road network architecture building module provided in the present invention.
Fig. 8 is a schematic structural diagram of a node sequential numbering unit provided in the present invention.
In the figure: the system comprises a 100-basic road network architecture building module, a 110-database retrieval unit, a 120-node sequence numbering unit, a 130-basic road network architecture building unit, a 121-dangerous work road network node identification module, a 122-dangerous level judgment module, a 123-road network node screening unit, a 200-key road network node evaluation module and a 300-transportation risk result correction module.
Detailed Description
Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs; the terminology used in the description of the application herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the application; the terms "including" and "having," and any variations thereof, in the description and claims of this application and the description of the above figures are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. The terms "first," "second," and the like in the description and claims of this application or in the above-described drawings are used for distinguishing between different objects and not for describing a particular order.
Reference herein to "an embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment can be included in at least one embodiment of the application. The appearances of the phrase in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment, nor are separate or alternative embodiments mutually exclusive of other embodiments. It is explicitly and implicitly understood by one skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein can be combined with other embodiments.
As a loaded complex network, the current research shows that the network structure of the petrochemical port area transportation network is a tree network, which means that the petrochemical port area transportation network is easy to be disconnected after being attacked, therefore, traffic jam is easy to occur, the social risk and the individual risk value of the petrochemical port area are increased, based on the method, a port and petrochemical area transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure is provided, by acquiring a port and petrochemical area basic road network framework, therefore, key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in the basic road network architecture of the port petrochemical region are extracted, an improved cascade failure model is constructed based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes is evaluated, the initial potential transportation risk result is finally corrected, and the potential blocking result of the basic road network architecture of the port petrochemical region is determined.
The embodiment of the invention applies the cascade failure correlation theory of the complex network to the transport hub transportation network of the petrochemical port area in China, and utilizes the weight evolution of the nodes to replace the method of topological structure evolution according to the characteristics of traffic flow of the transport network, so that the cascade failure model is more in line with the research background of the transport network of the petrochemical port area.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the importance of important nodes in the geographic network of the petrochemical port area is researched by a multi-attribute decision method to carry out comprehensive sequencing, and the research result is not only beneficial to finding potential key road network nodes of the petrochemical port area and better guaranteeing the safety and efficiency of the network, but also has practical significance for road planning and transportation safety organization of the petrochemical port area, and the road congestion of the petrochemical port area is reduced and the personal risk and the social risk of the petrochemical port area are reduced.
The embodiment of the invention provides a port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure, which is used for port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning analysis, and as shown in figure 1, the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure comprises the following steps:
and step S10, acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on the port petrochemical region plan.
Step S20, extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in the basic road network architecture of the port petrochemical region, constructing an improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes.
And step S30, acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of the key road network node, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result, and determining a potential jam result of the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the importance of important nodes in the geographic network of the petrochemical port area is researched by a multi-attribute decision method to carry out comprehensive sequencing, and the research result is not only beneficial to finding potential key road network nodes of the petrochemical port area and better guaranteeing the safety and efficiency of the network, but also has practical significance for road planning and transportation safety organization of the petrochemical port area, and the road congestion of the petrochemical port area is reduced and the personal risk and the social risk of the petrochemical port area are reduced.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for acquiring a port petrochemical region basic network architecture based on a port petrochemical region plane diagram, as shown in fig. 2, the method for acquiring the port petrochemical region basic network architecture based on the port petrochemical region plane diagram comprises the following steps:
step S101, a port petrochemical database is searched, and a port petrochemical region plane map and a port petrochemical region fire control map are identified, wherein the port petrochemical database comprises the port petrochemical region plane map and the port petrochemical region fire control map.
And S102, extracting key road network nodes of the harbor petrochemical region plane graph and the harbor petrochemical region fire-fighting graph, and numbering the key road network nodes sequentially.
And S103, connecting the numbered key road network nodes one by one based on a unidirectional line, and gradually connecting the key road network nodes from the port petrochemical region land road inlet and outlet to the port petrochemical region water road inlet and outlet to form a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
In this embodiment, the data in the port petrochemical database is obtained based on the corresponding port original control and regulation diagram, construction control and regulation diagram, industry planning instruction, plant dock distribution location, and network control and regulation diagram, and the port original control and regulation diagram, the construction control and regulation diagram, the industry planning instruction, the plant dock distribution location, and the network control and regulation diagram include, but are not limited to, electronic documents and data book.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a method for extracting key road network nodes of the plane graph of the port petrochemical region and the fire fighting graph of the port petrochemical region and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes, as shown in fig. 3, the method for extracting the key road network nodes of the plane graph of the port petrochemical region and the fire fighting graph of the port petrochemical region and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes comprises the following steps:
and S1021, traversing dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region based on the port petrochemical region plane graph and the port petrochemical region fire graph, and identifying dangerous operation road network nodes through the dangerous cargo operation places, wherein the dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region comprise position nodes of dangerous cargo enterprises, dangerous cargo transportation road network nodes and dangerous cargo storage nodes.
Step S1022, all dangerous work network nodes in the port petrochemical region are obtained, all dangerous work network nodes are subjected to hierarchical processing based on a dangerous chemical major hazard source identification method and port dangerous cargo major hazard source supervision rules, and the danger level of the dangerous work network nodes is determined.
Step S1023, traversing all dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are calculated, enabling all dangerous operation road network nodes to be arranged according to the danger levels, screening out dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are smaller than a preset danger threshold value based on a preset danger threshold value judgment rule, combining dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are small based on a proximity principle, simplifying multiple groups of dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are small into one node, combining the simplified node and the screened dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are larger than the preset danger threshold value to obtain key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region, and constructing a port petrochemical region basic road network framework.
In this embodiment, when traversing the dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region based on the port petrochemical region plan and the port petrochemical region fire graph, the general layout, the dangerous cargo operation current situation, the safety management-related laws, regulations and policy measures, the safety management and supervision current situation, the emergency system establishment and emergency capacity allocation current situation, the safety situation, the future planning and development, and the natural conditions and population distribution situation of the dangerous cargo enterprise are also dealt with, so that the dangerous operation path network nodes are conveniently judged.
In this embodiment, the dangerous level of the dangerous operation road network nodes is sequentially classified into 1, 2, 3 and 4 levels from low to high by the dangerous chemical major hazard source identification method and the port dangerous cargo major hazard source supervision rule, when the dangerous operation road network nodes are screened out, the preset dangerous threshold is 2 levels, so that screening out that the dangerous level is less than 2 levels is realized, meanwhile, based on the principle of proximity, if the distance between adjacent dangerous operation road network nodes is less than 300 meters, merging of the dangerous operation road network nodes is realized, so that the load of the system is reduced, and the road network blockage early warning efficiency is improved.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for constructing an improved cascade failure model based on key road network nodes in a petrochemical region and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes, as shown in fig. 4, the method for constructing the improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes in the petrochemical region and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes comprises the following steps:
step S201, setting a trigger rule and a trigger threshold of the improved cascade failure model.
Step S202, calculating the adjacent weight of the key road network node, judging whether the adjacent weight of the key road network node is larger than a trigger threshold, and if so, indicating that the key road network node is in a failure state.
And step S203, identifying the failed key road network nodes, and calculating the network average efficiency of the improved cascade failure model.
In this embodiment, the triggering rule of the improved cascading failure model is that once a key road network node in a petrochemical region is "failed", the weights of all adjacent edges of the node are increased, the node is in a normal state, and the weights of all corresponding edges are unchanged.
In this embodiment, the network average efficiency formula for calculating the improved cascading failure model is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
=1,2，...
shows that each community structure is internally provided with
Individual nodes, in common throughout the network
A community structure of
When the time is in the step of time,
is shown as
Nodes in individual community structure
In the first place
State variables, coupling matrices, at time step
Indicates the connection status between the node i in the mth community structure and the node j in the S community structure if there is an edge between them
(ii) a If not, then,
. Coefficient of coupling
，
Respectively representing the strength of the coupling relation between the interior of the community structure and the community structure, in the formula
Using Logistic functions to define local chaos phenomena in the network, i.e.
。
The smaller the network efficiency after a certain node fails, the larger the range and degree of influence on the whole network after the cascade failure of the certain node can be considered.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for correcting an initial potential transportation risk result, as shown in fig. 5, the method for correcting the initial potential transportation risk result comprises the following steps:
step S301, obtaining an initial potential transportation risk result of a key road network node in the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture, and judging whether an absolute value of the initial potential transportation risk result is greater than a preset precision threshold value.
Step S302, if yes, correcting an initial potential transportation risk result; otherwise, judging that the initial potential transportation risk result tends to the real transportation risk result, and not correcting the initial potential transportation risk result.
In this embodiment, the preset accuracy threshold is a, and the correction value of the initial potential transportation risk result is
And if the corrected value of the initial potential transportation risk result is less than or equal to a preset precision threshold value A, and the suitable range of the precision threshold value A is specified to be 0.04-0.005, judging that the initial potential transportation risk result tends to the real transportation risk result, wherein the preset precision threshold value A is calculated by a formula (2), wherein:
in the formula, the content of the active carbon is shown in the specification,
for the purpose of initial potential transportation risk results,
for the network average efficiency value of the improved cascade failure model, a formula (A) is adopted3) Correcting the initial potential transportation risk result, wherein the formula (3) is as follows:
the embodiment of the invention provides a port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascade failure, and as shown in fig. 6, the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascade failure comprises:
the basic road network architecture establishing module 100 is used for acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on a port petrochemical region plane diagram;
the key road network node evaluation module 200 is used for extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region, constructing an improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes;
and a transportation risk result correction module 300, configured to obtain an initial potential transportation risk result of the key road network node, correct the initial potential transportation risk result, and determine a potential blocking result of the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a basic road network architecture building module 100, as shown in fig. 7, the basic road network architecture building module 100 includes:
a database retrieval unit 110, configured to retrieve a port petrochemical database, and identify a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire graph, where the port petrochemical database includes the port petrochemical region plan and the port petrochemical region fire graph;
the node sequence numbering unit 120 is used for extracting key road network nodes of the harbor petrochemical region plane graph and the harbor petrochemical region fire graph and numbering the key road network nodes in sequence;
the basic road network architecture building unit 130 is used for connecting the numbered key road network nodes one by one based on unidirectional lines, and gradually connecting the key road network nodes from the port and petrochemical region land road inlet and outlet to the port and petrochemical region water road inlet and outlet to form the port and petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
In a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 8, the node sequence numbering unit 120 comprises:
the dangerous operation road network node identification module 121 traverses dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region based on a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire graph, and identifies dangerous operation road network nodes through the dangerous cargo operation places, wherein the dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region comprise position nodes of dangerous cargo enterprises, dangerous cargo transportation road network nodes and dangerous cargo storage nodes;
the danger level determination module 122 is used for acquiring all dangerous work network nodes in the port petrochemical region, performing hierarchical processing on all dangerous work network nodes based on a dangerous chemical major hazard source identification method and port dangerous cargo major hazard source supervision rules, and determining the danger levels of the dangerous work network nodes;
the road network node screening unit 123 is configured to traverse all the dangerous work road network nodes whose danger levels are calculated, so that all the dangerous work road network nodes are arranged according to the danger levels, screen out dangerous work road network nodes whose danger levels are smaller than a predetermined danger threshold based on a predetermined danger threshold determination rule, merge dangerous work road network nodes whose danger levels are small based on a proximity principle, simplify multiple groups of dangerous work road network nodes whose danger levels are small into one node, merge the simplified nodes and the screened dangerous work road network nodes whose danger levels are greater than the predetermined danger threshold, obtain key road network nodes in a port petrochemical region, and construct a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
The embodiment of the invention also provides computer equipment for carrying the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on the cascade failure and executing the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on the cascade failure, wherein the computer equipment comprises a display screen, a memory, a processor and a computer program, wherein the computer program is stored in the memory, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on the cascade failure.
It is understood that, in the preferred embodiment provided by the present invention, the computer device may also be a notebook computer, a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA), a mobile phone, or other devices capable of communicating.
Illustratively, a computer program can be partitioned into one or more modules, which are stored in memory and executed by a processor to implement the present invention. One or more of the modules may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing certain functions, which are used to describe the execution of the computer program in the terminal device. For example, the computer program may be divided into units or modules of the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascading failure provided by the various system embodiments.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the above description of the terminal device is merely exemplary and not limiting, and that more or fewer components than those described above may be included, or certain components may be combined, or different components may be included, such as input output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.
The Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like, which is the control center of the terminal equipment and connects the various parts of the entire user terminal using various interfaces and lines.
In summary, the invention provides a port and petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascading failure, the importance of important nodes in a geographic network of a petrochemical port area is researched through a multi-attribute decision method to carry out comprehensive sequencing, and the research result is not only beneficial to finding potential key road network nodes of the petrochemical port area and better guaranteeing the safety and efficiency of the network, but also has practical significance on road planning and transportation safety organization of the petrochemical port area, and the road congestion of the petrochemical port area is reduced, and the individual risk and the social risk of the petrochemical port area are reduced.
It should be noted that, for simplicity of description, the above-mentioned embodiments are described as a series of acts, but those skilled in the art will recognize that the present invention is not limited by the order of acts, as some steps may occur in other orders or concurrently in accordance with the invention. Further, those skilled in the art should also appreciate that the embodiments described in the specification are preferred embodiments and that the acts and modules referred to are not necessarily required by the invention.
In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus may be implemented in other manners. For example, the above-described embodiments of the apparatus are merely illustrative, and for example, the above-described division of the units is only one type of division of logical functions, and other divisions may be realized in practice, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection between devices or units through some interfaces, and may be in a telecommunication or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one position, or may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
The above examples are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and do not limit the scope of the present invention. It is to be understood that the described embodiments are merely exemplary of the invention, and not restrictive of the full scope of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from these embodiments without inventive step, are within the scope of the present invention. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art may still make various combinations, additions, deletions or other modifications of the features of the embodiments of the present invention according to the situation without conflict, so as to obtain different technical solutions without substantially departing from the spirit of the present invention, and these technical solutions also fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on the cascade failure is used for early warning and analysis of port petrochemical region transportation risk and is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on a port petrochemical region plan;
extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region, constructing an improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes;
and acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of the key road network node, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result, and determining a potential jam result of the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
2. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for obtaining the port petrochemical region basic network architecture based on the port petrochemical region plan comprises the following steps:
retrieving a port petrochemical database, and identifying a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire diagram, wherein the port petrochemical database comprises a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire diagram;
extracting key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region plane graph and a port petrochemical region fire graph, and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes;
key road network nodes which are numbered are connected one by one on the basis of one-way lines, and are gradually connected from the port petrochemical region land road inlet and outlet to the port petrochemical region water road inlet and outlet to form a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
3. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure as claimed in claim 2, wherein the method for extracting key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region plan and a port petrochemical region fire graph and sequentially numbering the key road network nodes comprises the following steps:
traversing dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region based on a port petrochemical region plane graph and a port petrochemical region fire-fighting graph, and identifying dangerous operation network nodes through the dangerous cargo operation places, wherein the dangerous cargo operation places in the port petrochemical region comprise position nodes of dangerous cargo enterprises, dangerous cargo transportation network nodes and dangerous cargo storage nodes;
acquiring all dangerous operation road network nodes in a port petrochemical region, and carrying out hierarchical processing on all dangerous operation road network nodes based on a dangerous chemical major hazard source identification method and port dangerous cargo major hazard source supervision rules to determine the danger level of the dangerous operation road network nodes;
traversing all dangerous operation road network nodes with calculated danger levels, enabling all dangerous operation road network nodes to be arranged according to the danger levels, screening out dangerous operation road network nodes with the danger levels smaller than a preset danger threshold value based on a preset danger threshold value judgment rule, combining the dangerous operation road network nodes with the small danger levels based on a proximity principle, simplifying multiple groups of dangerous operation road network nodes with the small danger levels into one node, combining the simplified nodes and the screened dangerous operation road network nodes with the danger levels larger than the preset danger threshold value to obtain key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region, and constructing a port petrochemical region basic road network framework.
4. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for constructing an improved cascade failure model based on key road network nodes in the petrochemical region and evaluating initial potential transportation risks of the key road network nodes specifically comprises:
setting a trigger rule and a trigger threshold value of an improved cascade failure model;
calculating the adjacent weight of the key road network node, judging whether the adjacent weight of the key road network node is greater than a trigger threshold, and if so, indicating that the key road network node is in a failure state;
and identifying the failed key road network nodes, and calculating the network average efficiency of the improved cascade failure model.
5. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure as claimed in claim 4, wherein the triggering rule of the improved cascade failure model is that once a key road network node of the petrochemical region is "failed", the weights of all adjacent edges of the node are increased, the node is in a normal state, and the weights of all corresponding edges are unchanged.
6. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure as claimed in claim 5, wherein the network average efficiency formula of the improved cascade failure model is calculated as follows:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
=1,2，...
shows that each community structure is internally provided with
Individual nodes, in common throughout the network
Individual colony structure of
When the time is in the step of time,
is shown as
Nodes in individual community structure
In the first place
State variables, coupling matrices, at time step
Indicates the connection status between the node i in the mth community structure and the node j in the S community structure if there is an edge between them
(ii) a If not, then the mobile terminal can be switched to the normal mode,
(ii) a Coefficient of coupling
，
Respectively representing the strength of the coupling relation between the interior of the community structure and the community structure, in the formula
Using Logistic functions to define local chaos phenomena in the network, i.e.
The smaller the network efficiency after a certain node fails, the larger the range and degree of influence on the whole network after the cascade failure of the certain node can be considered.
7. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method based on cascade failure as claimed in claim 6, wherein the method for correcting the initial potential transportation risk result specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of a key road network node in the port petrochemical region basic road network architecture, and judging whether the absolute value of the initial potential transportation risk result is greater than a preset precision threshold value or not;
if so, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result; otherwise, judging that the initial potential transportation risk result tends to the real transportation risk result, and not correcting the initial potential transportation risk result.
8. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on the cascade failure based port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on the cascade failure comprises:
the basic road network architecture establishing module is used for acquiring a port petrochemical region basic road network architecture based on a port petrochemical region plane diagram;
the key road network node evaluation module is used for extracting key road network nodes of the port petrochemical region in a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region, constructing an improved cascade failure model based on the key road network nodes of the petrochemical region, and evaluating the initial potential transportation risk of the key road network nodes;
and the transportation risk result correction module is used for acquiring an initial potential transportation risk result of the key road network node, correcting the initial potential transportation risk result and determining a potential blockage result of the basic road network architecture of the port petrochemical region.
9. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascade failure according to claim 8, wherein the infrastructure building module comprises:
the system comprises a database retrieval unit, a port petrochemical region planning unit and a port petrochemical region fire-fighting map retrieval unit, wherein the database retrieval unit is used for retrieving a port petrochemical database and identifying a port petrochemical region plan view and a port petrochemical region fire-fighting map, and the port petrochemical database comprises a port petrochemical region plan view and a port petrochemical region fire-fighting map;
the node sequence numbering unit is used for extracting key road network nodes of the harbor petrochemical region plane graph and the harbor petrochemical region fire graph and numbering the key road network nodes in sequence;
the basic road network architecture building unit is used for connecting numbered key road network nodes one by one on the basis of unidirectional lines, and gradually connecting the ports and petrochemical regions from the ports and petrochemical region land road inlets and outlets to the ports and petrochemical region water road inlets and outlets to form the port and petrochemical region basic road network architecture.
10. The port petrochemical region transportation risk early warning system based on cascading failure as claimed in claim 9, wherein the node sequence numbering unit comprises:
the dangerous operation road network node identification module traverses dangerous goods operation places in the port petrochemical region based on the port petrochemical region plane graph and the port petrochemical region fire graph and identifies dangerous operation road network nodes through the dangerous goods operation places, wherein the dangerous goods operation places in the port petrochemical region comprise position nodes of dangerous goods enterprises, dangerous goods transportation road network nodes and dangerous goods storage nodes;
the system comprises a danger level judging module, a dangerous operation road network node classifying module and a dangerous operation road network node classifying module, wherein the danger level judging module is used for acquiring all dangerous operation road network nodes in a port petrochemical region, and classifying all dangerous operation road network nodes based on a dangerous chemical major danger source identification method and port dangerous cargo major danger source supervision rules to determine the danger levels of the dangerous operation road network nodes;
the road network node screening unit is used for traversing and calculating all dangerous operation road network nodes of danger levels, enabling all dangerous operation road network nodes to be arranged according to the danger levels, screening out dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are smaller than a preset danger threshold value based on a preset danger threshold value judgment rule, combining the dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are small based on a proximity principle, simplifying a plurality of groups of dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are small into one node, combining the simplified nodes and the screened dangerous operation road network nodes of which the danger levels are larger than the preset danger threshold value to obtain key road network nodes of a port petrochemical region, and constructing a basic road network framework of the port petrochemical region.
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