CN102156308A - Method for discriminating typhoon path - Google Patents
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- CN102156308A CN102156308A CN 201110055523 CN201110055523A CN102156308A CN 102156308 A CN102156308 A CN 102156308A CN 201110055523 CN201110055523 CN 201110055523 CN 201110055523 A CN201110055523 A CN 201110055523A CN 102156308 A CN102156308 A CN 102156308A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for discriminating a typhoon path. The problem of determination of a similar typhoon path is solved by algorithms of type differences and value differences among different typhoons and by using a buffer zone analysis technology and a superposition analysis technology in a global information system (GIS). Meanwhile, the method is based on the given typhoon basic data without addition of observation data and has highly strong service availability.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of meteorological technology, the typhoon track method of discrimination in especially a kind of typhoon meteorological disaster, a kind of specifically analogue method of utilizing is carried out the typhoon track method of discrimination that the path is differentiated.
Background technology
As everyone knows, typhoon is one of great meteorological disaster that influences China, the condition of a disaster comparative analysis of similar tropical cyclone (typhoon) is the emphasis in the weather service, and the similar path of typhoon judges it is the difficult point place of finishing this business, the solution that does not have the similar path of good typhoon to judge in the current meteorological department yet, main by artificial unaided eye discrimination, have shortcomings such as subjectivity, complicacy.Had a strong impact on the accuracy rate of Typhoon Route Forecast.
On the other hand, anything all has its rule to follow, if the historical information of typhoon can be used, has crucial meaning for the correct decision typhoon track, but because it is bigger to differentiate the difficulty of data and calculating, this work is at present effectively carried out as yet.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to differentiate the main artificial cognition that relies at existing typhoon track, difficulty is big, the problem of the accuracy rate of influence forecast, invent a kind of based on historical data by calculating similar in history typhoon track in a large number as the typhoon track method of discrimination that forecasts the path.
Technical scheme of the present invention is:
A kind of typhoon track method of discrimination is characterized in that it may further comprise the steps:
The first step: read current typhoon track information;
Second step: generate the GIS data file;
From the measured data of typhoon, extract the longitude and latitude data of each observation station, in GIS, finish inserting, changing of longitude and latitude data, form the GIS file;
The 3rd step: generate buffer zone;
According to the requirement of differentiating, extract buffer zone radius size d,
In the formula: Δ φ is the difference of longitude of buffer zone point and typhoon track point, and Δ λ is the difference of latitude of buffer zone point and typhoon track point, utilizes the buffer zone of the buffer zone generation technique formation current path of GIS;
The 4th step: read the typhoon historical data;
At first definite time range that needs the historical typhoon of search; Secondly, as the typhoon sample, the historical typhoon data that satisfy reading conditions are written into GIS with the typhoon in the season of the real-time typhoon similar scope;
The 5th step: overlay analysis;
Utilize the overlay analysis technology of GIS to carry out overlay analysis the buffer data of current typhoon and the historical typhoon information that is written into, filter out the historical typhoon in the buffer zone scope;
The 6th step: screening;
Screening conditions based on historical typhoon: typhoon grade and move towards scope; Obtain the 12 hourly average wind speed that belong to the up-to-date time point in the buffer zone, carry out the screening of typhoon grade according to wind speed; Obtain the 12 hourly averages trend that belongs to the up-to-date time point in the buffer zone, judge whether trend is provided with within the scope the user to screen; At last, obtain to meet the historical typhoon track intersection of preliminary condition.
The 7th step: calculate similarity;
According to the geographical similarity distance that sets in advance, five equilibrium buffer zone; At each five equilibrium vertical line is done in historical path, obtained the set that each puts the bee-line point in this historical path; Rotation longitude and latitude axle is done each five equilibrium again vertical line is done in historical path, obtains the set that each puts the bee-line point in this historical path again; The type difference and the value difference that calculate typhoon then are different;
Type difference S calculates:
M is the number of times that two curves and ordinate intersect jointly, and A is the variance of bee-line, y
IkBe the each point of article one curve (current typhoon track curve), y
JkEach point for second curve (historical typhoon track curve).
The different D of value difference calculates:
M is the number of times that two curves and ordinate intersect jointly, and promptly bee-line adds up divided by crossing number of times;
At last, calculate similarly, obtain the similar set of the historical typhoon of each bar that is written into from degree from degree C=S+D;
The 8th step: ordering;
Carry out size ordering according to the historical typhoon that has calculated is similar from degree set, similar more little from spending, similarity is big more, with the historical typhoon track of the similarity maximum similar path as this typhoon.
Described current typhoon track information comprise typhoon numbering, title, time, need carry out period of similar path differentiating and at this moment between all measured datas in the section.
The season of described real-time typhoon, similar scope was to appear at respectively to extend the ten days typhoon sample in totally three ten days before and after current typhoon place ten days, claimed that seasonal characteristic is similar.
Beneficial effect of the present invention:
The present invention is based on existing typhoon basic data, need not additional observation data can have extremely strong service availability to the path of typhoon as judgement.
The present invention passes through the prediction of typhoon in recent years, the identical rate of gained path and Actual path is up to 100%, proof utilizes method of the present invention can make differentiation to the path of new typhoon fully, for meteorological department in time forecasts typhoon track, government department in time carries out to take precautions against provides forecast information quickly.Help improving the disaster reduction and prevention level.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a decision method process flow diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is further illustrated below in conjunction with drawings and Examples.
As shown in Figure 1.
A kind of typhoon track method of discrimination, it may further comprise the steps:
At first, the buffer zone analysis technology among some essential informations of utilizing typhoon and the GIS and overlay analysis technology are finished the preliminary screening of similar path typhoon;
Next is from the similarity of type difference and value difference historical typhoon of different two angle calculation and current typhoon;
At last, based on similarity result of calculation, similar historical typhoon from the degree minimum is and the most similar typhoon of current typhoon, thereby has finished the judgement in the similar path of typhoon.
Concrete decision process is (as shown in Figure 1):
The first step: read current typhoon track information.
The user at first determines to carry out the typhoon that similar path is differentiated, and can determine (being defaulted as real-time typhoon or the last typhoon) according to information such as the numbering of typhoon, title, times.Then, in the time period of fixed typhoon process, determine to carry out the period that similar path is differentiated.At last, the time period of carrying out differentiating in similar path according to the typhoon of determining and needs obtain this typhoon at this moment between all measured datas in the section.
Second step: generate the GIS data file.
From the measured data of typhoon, extract the longitude and latitude data of each observation station, in GIS, finish inserting, changing of longitude and latitude data, form the GIS file.
The 3rd step: generate buffer zone.
According to the requirement of differentiating, extract buffer zone radius size d (being generally 200 kilometers),
Utilize the buffer zone of the buffer zone generation technique formation current path of GIS.
The 4th step: read the typhoon historical data.
According to the requirement of differentiating object, read the time range of the historical typhoon that needs search; Then, obtain the similar scope in season of real-time typhoon: appear at and respectively extend the ten days typhoon sample in totally three ten days before and after current typhoon place ten days, claim that seasonal characteristic is similar.Obtain qualified historical typhoon according to above-mentioned condition, and historical typhoon data are written into GIS.
The 5th step: overlay analysis.
Utilize the overlay analysis technology of GIS to carry out overlay analysis the buffer data of current typhoon and the historical typhoon information that is written into, filter out the historical typhoon in the buffer zone scope.
The 6th step: screening.
According to the typhoon grade that is provided with, move towards scope; Obtain the 12 hourly average wind speed that belong to the up-to-date time point in the buffer zone, carry out the screening of typhoon grade according to wind speed.Obtain the 12 hourly averages trend that belongs to the up-to-date time point in the buffer zone, judge whether trend is provided with within the scope the user to screen.At last, obtain to meet the historical typhoon track intersection of preliminary condition.
The 7th step: calculate similarity.
According to the geographical similarity distance that is provided with, five equilibrium buffer zone; At each five equilibrium vertical line (bee-line) is done in historical path, obtained the set that each puts the bee-line point in this historical path; The rotation Y-axis is done each five equilibrium again vertical line is done in historical path, obtains the set that each puts the bee-line point in this historical path again; The type difference and the value difference that calculate typhoon then are different.
Type difference S calculates:
M is the number of times that two curves and ordinate intersect jointly, and A is that the variance yields difference D of bee-line calculates:
M is the number of times that two curves and ordinate intersect jointly, and promptly bee-line adds up divided by crossing number of times.
At last, calculate similarly, obtain the similar set of the historical typhoon of each bar that is written into from degree from degree C=S+D.The 8th step: ordering.
Carry out the size ordering according to the historical typhoon that has calculated is similar from spending set, similar more little from degree, similarity is big more, and similar historical typhoon from the degree minimum is the typhoon the most similar to this typhoon.
The part that the present invention does not relate to prior art that maybe can adopt all same as the prior art is realized.
Claims (3)
1. typhoon track method of discrimination is characterized in that it may further comprise the steps:
The first step: read current typhoon track information;
Second step: generate the GIS data file;
From the measured data of typhoon, extract the longitude and latitude data of each observation station, in GIS, finish inserting, changing of longitude and latitude data, form the GIS file;
The 3rd step: generate buffer zone;
According to the requirement of differentiating, extract buffer zone radius size d,
In the formula: Δ φ is the difference of longitude of buffer zone point and typhoon track point, and Δ λ is the difference of latitude of buffer zone point and typhoon track point, utilizes the buffer zone of the buffer zone generation technique formation current path of GIS;
The 4th step: read the typhoon historical data;
At first definite time range that needs the historical typhoon of search; Secondly, as the typhoon sample, the historical typhoon data that satisfy reading conditions are written into GIS with the typhoon in the season of the real-time typhoon similar scope;
The 5th step: overlay analysis;
Utilize the overlay analysis technology of GIS to carry out overlay analysis the buffer data of current typhoon and the historical typhoon information that is written into, filter out the historical typhoon in the buffer zone scope;
The 6th step: screening;
Screening conditions based on historical typhoon: typhoon grade and move towards scope; Obtain the 12 hourly average wind speed that belong to the up-to-date time point in the buffer zone, carry out the screening of typhoon grade according to wind speed; Obtain the 12 hourly averages trend that belongs to the up-to-date time point in the buffer zone, judge whether trend is provided with within the scope the user to screen; At last, obtain to meet the historical typhoon track intersection of preliminary condition;
The 7th step: calculate similarity;
According to the geographical similarity distance that sets in advance, five equilibrium buffer zone; At each five equilibrium vertical line is done in historical path, obtained the set that each puts the bee-line point in this historical path; Rotation longitude and latitude axle is done each five equilibrium again vertical line is done in historical path, obtains the set that each puts the bee-line point in this historical path again; The type difference and the value difference that calculate typhoon then are different;
Type difference S calculates:
M is the number of times that two curves and ordinate intersect jointly, and A is the variance of bee-line, y
IkBe the each point of article one curve (current typhoon track curve), y
JkFor the second curve is the each point of historical typhoon track curve;
The different D of value difference calculates:
M is the number of times that two curves and ordinate intersect jointly, and promptly bee-line adds up divided by crossing number of times;
At last, calculate similarly, obtain the similar set of the historical typhoon of each bar that is written into from degree from degree C=S+D;
The 8th step: ordering;
Carry out size ordering according to the historical typhoon that has calculated is similar from degree set, similar more little from spending, similarity is big more, with the historical typhoon track of the similarity maximum similar path as this typhoon.
2. typhoon track method of discrimination according to claim 1, it is characterized in that described current typhoon track information comprise the numbering of typhoon, title, time, need carry out period of similar path differentiating and at this moment between all measured datas in the section.
3. typhoon track method of discrimination according to claim 1, the similar scope in season that it is characterized in that described real-time typhoon are to appear at respectively to extend the ten days typhoon sample in totally three ten days before and after current typhoon place ten days, claim that seasonal characteristic is similar.
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| CN103365958A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2013-10-23 | 南京信大高科技发展有限公司 | Typhoon forecasting platform and typhoon track retrieval method |
| CN103544379A (en) * | 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-29 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | Typhoon landing similarity analytical method based on GIS |
| CN104200082A (en) * | 2014-08-22 | 2014-12-10 | 清华大学 | Typhoon landing prediction method |
| CN105488594A (en) * | 2015-12-08 | 2016-04-13 | 南京信息工程大学 | Typhoon track forecast method |
| CN106443830A (en) * | 2016-06-16 | 2017-02-22 | 杭州师范大学 | Method for typhoon monitoring and evaluation of monitoring precision based on multi-source satellite data |
| CN106501878A (en) * | 2016-10-18 | 2017-03-15 | 河海大学 | Estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method |
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| CN106779274A (en) * | 2016-04-20 | 2017-05-31 | 海南电力技术研究院 | A kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system |
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| CN107193060A (en) * | 2017-06-20 | 2017-09-22 | 厦门大学 | A kind of multipath Typhoon Storm Surge Over method for quick predicting and system |
| CN107562840A (en) * | 2017-08-25 | 2018-01-09 | 北京科技大学 | A kind of typhoon track method for quick predicting based on GIS |
| CN108919384A (en) * | 2018-03-26 | 2018-11-30 | 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院 | It is a kind of based on the typhoon track DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM method for estimating deviation |
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| CN112287046A (en) * | 2020-09-17 | 2021-01-29 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Method and system for determining surface average roughness coefficient in typhoon wind ring |
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| CN115203596A (en) * | 2022-09-19 | 2022-10-18 | 南京信大气象科学技术研究院有限公司 | Typhoon path segment similarity matching method and device based on shortest distance matching |
| CN115685387A (en) * | 2022-10-17 | 2023-02-03 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Method and device for detecting typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity degree |
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| CN103365958A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2013-10-23 | 南京信大高科技发展有限公司 | Typhoon forecasting platform and typhoon track retrieval method |
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| CN103544379A (en) * | 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-29 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | Typhoon landing similarity analytical method based on GIS |
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| CN106443830A (en) * | 2016-06-16 | 2017-02-22 | 杭州师范大学 | Method for typhoon monitoring and evaluation of monitoring precision based on multi-source satellite data |
| CN106501878A (en) * | 2016-10-18 | 2017-03-15 | 河海大学 | Estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method |
| CN106501878B (en) * | 2016-10-18 | 2018-12-14 | 河海大学 | Estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method |
| CN106772685A (en) * | 2016-11-24 | 2017-05-31 | 浙江省水文局 | Similar typhoon matching algorithm and software support system based on Web GIS |
| CN107133636A (en) * | 2017-03-30 | 2017-09-05 | 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院 | A kind of method and system for obtaining similar typhoon |
| CN107133636B (en) * | 2017-03-30 | 2020-06-16 | 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院有限公司 | Method and system for obtaining similar typhoons |
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| CN107193060B (en) * | 2017-06-20 | 2019-08-20 | 厦门大学 | A kind of multipath Typhoon Storm Surge Over method for quick predicting and system |
| CN107562840A (en) * | 2017-08-25 | 2018-01-09 | 北京科技大学 | A kind of typhoon track method for quick predicting based on GIS |
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| CN111766642B (en) * | 2020-06-16 | 2021-07-23 | 中国气象科学研究院 | Login tropical cyclone precipitation forecasting system |
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