CN115685387A - Method and device for detecting typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity degree - Google Patents
Method and device for detecting typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity degree Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN115685387A CN115685387A CN202211267491.7A CN202211267491A CN115685387A CN 115685387 A CN115685387 A CN 115685387A CN 202211267491 A CN202211267491 A CN 202211267491A CN 115685387 A CN115685387 A CN 115685387A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- typhoon
- position deviation
- path
- forecast
- consistency
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 28
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 7
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 18
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 abstract description 13
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 12
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 10
- 230000032683 aging Effects 0.000 description 5
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 description 5
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000007405 data analysis Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007812 deficiency Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000001066 destructive effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000011435 rock Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000006467 substitution reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of typhoon forecast inspection, in particular to a method and a device for inspecting the forecast consistency and the similarity degree of a typhoon path, which are used for solving the problem that the consistency and the similarity degree of the typhoon path forecasted in the forecast timeliness and an actual typhoon path are not inspected in the prior art, and the method comprises the following steps: acquiring typhoon optimal path data and typhoon path forecast data, and calculating position deviation by using the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data; calculating an average position deviation and an average absolute position deviation according to the position deviation; calculating and obtaining an average absolute position deviation degree according to the position deviation and the average position deviation; and obtaining the consistency and similarity degree error of the longitude and latitude forecasting results by taking the average value of the average absolute position deviation and the average absolute position deviation, and obtaining the detection result of the typhoon path forecasting consistency and similarity degree error according to the consistency and similarity degree error of the longitude and latitude forecasting results.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of typhoon forecast inspection, in particular to a method and a device for inspecting typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity.
Background
Typhoon is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the sea area of the pacific in the northwest, 7.9 typhoons land in China every year, and huge economic losses are brought to various parts of the coastal areas of China. The accurate prediction of the typhoon path can greatly reduce the loss caused by typhoon disasters, and the typhoon path prediction and inspection work can intuitively know the path prediction capability of various typhoon prediction methods, thereby providing a reference basis for typhoon disaster prevention and reduction.
In order to carry out typhoon path forecast inspection work in a normative manner, the meteorological department in China explicitly provides a specific calculation method and a principle of typhoon path forecast inspection indexes in the issued typhoon business and service specifications and GB/T38308-2019 weather forecast inspection-typhoon forecast. However, the existing typhoon path prediction inspection technology has the following defects:
the existing typhoon path forecasting and testing technology only performs simple distance error calculation between two points aiming at a typhoon forecasting position (longitude and latitude information) and a typhoon actual position of a certain forecasting time limit (such as 24 hours), and lacks of testing consistency and similarity degree of a path track forecasted in the forecasting time limit and a path track moved by an actual typhoon.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a method and a device for detecting the forecasting consistency and the similarity degree of a typhoon path.
The embodiment of the invention is realized in such a way that, in a first aspect, the method for checking the typhoon path forecast consistency and the similarity degree specifically comprises the following steps: acquiring typhoon optimal path data and typhoon path forecast data; calculating position deviation by using the typhoon optimal path data and typhoon path forecast data; calculating an average position deviation and an average absolute position deviation according to the position deviation; calculating and obtaining an average absolute position deviation degree according to the position deviation and the average position deviation; and obtaining the consistency and similarity degree error of the longitude and latitude forecasting results by taking the average value of the average absolute position deviation and the average absolute position deviation, and obtaining the detection result of the typhoon path forecasting consistency and similarity degree error according to the consistency and similarity degree error of the longitude and latitude forecasting results. The test result can provide reference basis for reasonably using and analyzing the typhoon path forecasting method and forecasting characteristics.
Optionally, the warp-wise position deviation and the weft-wise position deviation are obtained according to the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data.
Optionally, the warp direction position deviation satisfies the following formula:
wherein ,
the warp position deviation corresponding to the ith longitude point,
representing the longitude f of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith longitude point;
the longitude b of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith longitude point is represented;
represents the latitude f1 of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith longitude point,
representing the latitude b1 of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith longitude point;m represents a simple conversion coefficient for converting 1 longitude into a kilometer in a certain forecast time limit to be checked, wherein the longitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data are 111.1; further optionally, the forecast is aged as an expiration date of the typhoon forecast.
Optionally, the weft direction position deviation satisfies the following formula:
wherein ,
is the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point,
representing the latitude f of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith latitude point;
representing the latitude b of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all latitude points along the typhoon path in a forecast time range to be tested in the typhoon forecast path and the typhoon optimal path data, and 111.1 is a simple conversion coefficient for converting 1 latitude into kilometers; further optionally, the forecast is aged for the expiration date of typhoon forecast.
Optionally, the average position deviation includes a warp direction average position deviation and a weft direction average position deviation, which satisfy the following formulas:
wherein ,Elon For the average positional deviation in the warp direction,
a warp direction position deviation corresponding to the ith longitude point; e lat Is the average positional deviation in the weft direction,
the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all longitude or latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time period to be checked.
Optionally, the average absolute position deviation represents a degree of deviation of a forecasted typhoon path from an actual typhoon path in terms of value, and the average absolute position deviation includes a meridional average absolute position deviation and a latitudinal average absolute position deviation, which respectively satisfy the following formulas:
wherein ,Alon Is the mean absolute position deviation of the warp direction,
the corresponding longitude position deviation of the ith longitude point is obtained; a. The lat Is the average absolute position deviation in the weft direction,
the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all typhoon path forecast data and all typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time limit to be checkedLongitude points or latitude points.
Optionally, the average absolute position deviation degree represents a difference degree between a forecasted typhoon path and an actual typhoon path in shape, and the average absolute position deviation degree includes a meridional average absolute position deviation degree and a latitudinal average absolute position deviation degree, which respectively satisfy the following formulas:
wherein ,Dlon Is the meridional mean absolute position deviation,
warp-wise positional deviation corresponding to ith longitude point, E lon Is the warp direction average position deviation; d lat Is the average absolute position deviation in the weft direction,
deviation of latitudinal position corresponding to ith latitude point, E lat The average position deviation of the weft direction is taken as the average position deviation of the weft direction; m represents all longitude or latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time period to be checked.
Optionally, the prediction result consistency and the similarity degree error include a longitude prediction result consistency and a similarity degree error and a latitudinal prediction result consistency and a similarity degree error, and respectively satisfy the following formulas:
S lon ＝(A lon +D lon )×0.5
S lat ＝(A lat +D lat )×0.5
wherein ,Slon Error in consistency and similarity of the warp prediction resultsDifference, A lon For the mean absolute position deviation in the warp direction, D lon The mean absolute position deviation degree of the warp direction is taken as the mean absolute position deviation degree of the warp direction; s lat For the latitudinal prediction result consistency and similarity degree error, A lat Is the mean absolute position deviation in the weft direction, D lat And the average absolute position deviation degree of the weft direction is obtained.
Optionally, the test result satisfies the following formula:
wherein ,Slon For the meridional prediction result consistency and similarity degree errors, S lat For the latitudinal prediction result consistency and similarity degree error, T y English name abbreviation with watch typhoon, T r English abbreviation with tabular path, S i English abbreviation with table similarity.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides an apparatus for checking the consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecasts, which performs the method of any one of the above items, including the following steps: inputting data using the input device; calculating data and obtaining a calculation result through the processor, wherein the processor is connected with the input equipment; storing the calculation results using the storage, the storage being connected to the storage; and outputting the calculation result by utilizing the output device, wherein the output device is connected with the storage.
In conclusion, the technology can be applied to a typhoon forecast test and evaluation system, and provides a judgment index for testing the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity degree for the evaluation system; the technology of the invention provides judgment basis for research personnel of the typhoon path forecasting method to improve the forecasting technology; the technology of the invention can provide reference basis for a forecaster to reasonably use and analyze the forecasting characteristics of the typhoon path forecasting method, and further provide technical guarantee for improving the typhoon disaster prevention and reduction capability.
In order to make the aforementioned and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, alternative embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present application and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that other related drawings can be obtained from the drawings without inventive effort.
Fig. 1 is a conceptual diagram of the consistency and similarity between the typhoon forecast path and the optimal path according to the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a method for verifying typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a comparison of 120 hour path trajectories and optimal path trajectories for european centre mode forecasts during a 15 th typhoon "rock" activity of 2011 in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a schematic view of the operation sequence of the components of the device for checking the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity according to the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below, and it should be noted that the embodiments described herein are only for illustration and are not intended to limit the present invention. In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. However, it will be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art that: it is not necessary to employ these specific details to practice the present invention. In other instances, well-known circuits, software, or methods have not been described in detail in order to avoid obscuring the present invention.
Throughout the specification, reference to "one embodiment," "an embodiment," "one example," or "an example" means: the particular features, structures, or characteristics described in connection with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment of the invention. Thus, the appearances of the phrases "in one embodiment," "in an embodiment," "one example" or "an example" in various places throughout this specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, or characteristics may be combined in any suitable combination and/or sub-combination in one or more embodiments or examples. Further, those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the illustrations provided herein are for illustrative purposes and are not necessarily drawn to scale.
It should be noted that in an alternative embodiment, the same symbols or letters appearing in all formulas have the same meaning and value, except where a separate description is made.
Referring to fig. 1, the present invention provides examples of consistency and similarity in three different comparison situations between a typhoon forecast path and an optimal path to help those of ordinary skill in the art better understand the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1 (a), the path error value between the typhoon forecast path and the optimal path is small, but the consistency and similarity between the two paths are poor;
as shown in fig. 1 (b), the path error value between the typhoon forecast path and the optimal path is large, but the consistency and similarity between the two paths are good;
as shown in fig. 1 (c), the path error value between the typhoon forecast path and the optimal path is small, and the consistency and similarity between the two paths are also good.
Specifically, the path error is a distance error between a typhoon forecast position and a typhoon actual position, which is calculated in a forecast time period by the existing typhoon path forecast inspection technology, and the implementation method of the present invention will be described in more detail below.
Referring to fig. 2, in an alternative embodiment, the present invention provides a method for checking the consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecasts, comprising the following steps:
s1, acquiring typhoon optimal path data and typhoon path forecast data.
In another alternative embodiment, the typhoon optimal path data may be specifically selected as a typhoon path and a typhoon intensity in the data of tropical cyclone yearbook compiled by the institute of typhoon in the Shanghai of China weather service, the typhoon path is a track passed by a typhoon center, the typhoon path includes longitude and latitude, the typhoon intensity is near-center ground maximum wind speed and sea-level minimum air pressure, and the typhoon optimal path data may also be specifically selected to be acquired through a China typhoon net or the like; further, the typhoon may be selected from different sea areas as tropical cyclone, hurricane, cyclonic storm, yao wind, intolerance of wind, etc.
Furthermore, the typhoon path forecast data comprises subjective typhoon path forecast data and objective typhoon path forecast data; further, the subjective typhoon path forecast data is moving path data of typhoon in the next days, which is obtained by an on-duty forecaster in an official typhoon forecast mechanism through artificial subjective judgment and forecast; the objective typhoon path forecast data is the moving path data of the typhoon in the future days obtained by computer mode simulation or calculation through a statistical method.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the typhoon optimal path data is selected from typhoon paths and typhoon intensity data generated by the northwest pacific in tropical cyclone yearbook, which is compiled by the national institute of meteorology, and the typhoon path forecast data is mobile path data of typhoon in the next few days, which is issued by an official typhoon forecasting agency, obtained through computer mode simulation, or obtained through calculation by a statistical method.
S2, calculating position deviation, and calculating the position deviation between each forecast point in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon path forecast data by using the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data.
Wherein, the position deviation comprises warp direction position deviation and weft direction position deviation, and S2 specifically comprises the following steps:
and S21, calculating the warp direction position deviation according to the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data.
The warp direction position deviation satisfies:
wherein ,
the warp position deviation corresponding to the ith longitude point,
the longitude f of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith longitude point is represented;
the longitude b of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith longitude point is represented;
represents the latitude f1 of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith longitude point,
the latitude b1 of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith longitude point is represented; m represents all longitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast aging to be checked; the forecast time limit is the effective time limit of typhoon forecast, and 111.1 is a conversion coefficient for converting 1 longitude or latitude into kilometers, namely 1 degree =111.1 kilometers.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the prediction and observation interval is once every 6 hours, the prediction aging is 120 hours, and the number of M is 21, that is, M =21; substituting the corresponding longitude and latitude into the formula, and calculating the meridional position deviation of the typhoon.
And S22, calculating the latitudinal position deviation according to the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data.
The weft-wise position deviation satisfies:
wherein ,
is the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point,
representing the latitude f of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith latitude point;
representing the latitude b of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time limit required to be checked; the forecast time limit is the effective time limit of typhoon forecast, and 111.1 is a conversion coefficient for converting 1 longitude or latitude into kilometers, namely 1 degree =111.1 kilometers.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the prediction and observation interval is once every 6 hours, and the prediction aging is 120 hours; substituting the corresponding longitude and latitude into the formula, and calculating the latitudinal position deviation of the typhoon respectively.
And S3, calculating the average position deviation.
Wherein the average position deviation includes the warp direction average position deviation and the weft direction average position deviation, and S3 specifically includes the following steps:
and S31, calculating the warp direction average position deviation by using the position deviation.
The warp direction average position deviation satisfies:
in this formula, E lon And M represents all longitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast aging to be checked.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the warp direction positional deviation calculated in S21 is used
Substituting into the formula, the warp direction average position deviation E can be calculated lon 。
And S32, calculating the average position deviation of the weft direction by using the position deviation.
The average position deviation in the weft direction satisfies:
in this formula, E lat And M represents all latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast aging to be detected.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the latitudinal position deviation calculated in S22 is used
Substituting the formula into the formula, calculating the average position deviation E of the weft direction lat 。
And S4, calculating the average absolute position deviation.
Wherein the average absolute position deviation includes the warp direction average absolute position deviation and the weft direction average absolute position deviation, and S4 specifically includes the following steps:
and S41, calculating the meridional mean absolute position deviation by using the position deviation.
The warp direction average absolute position deviation satisfies:
in this formula, A lon For the meridional mean absolute position deviation, M represents all longitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time limit required to be checked; the meridional mean absolute position deviation represents the degree of deviation in meridional values of the forecasted typhoon path and the actual typhoon path.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the warp direction positional deviation calculated in S21 is used
Substituting into the formula, the warp direction average absolute position deviation A can be calculated lon 。
And S42, calculating the average absolute position deviation of the weft direction by using the position deviation.
The average absolute position deviation of the latitudinal direction meets the following requirements:
in this formula, A lat For the latitudinal average absolute position deviation, M represents all latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast timeliness required to be checked; and the latitudinal average absolute position deviation represents the deviation degree of the numerical values of the forecasted typhoon path and the actual typhoon path in the latitudinal direction.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the latitudinal position deviation calculated in S22 is used
Substituting the equation into the formula, the average absolute position deviation A of the weft direction can be calculated lat 。
And S5, calculating the average absolute position deviation degree.
Wherein the average absolute position deviation includes the warp direction average absolute position deviation and the weft direction average absolute position deviation, and S5 specifically includes the steps of:
and S51, calculating the meridional mean absolute position deviation degree by using the position deviation and the mean position deviation.
The warp direction average absolute position deviation degree satisfies:
in this formula, D lon For the meridional mean absolute position deviation, M represents all longitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time limit required to be checked; the meridional average absolute position deviation represents a degree of difference in the meridional shape between the predicted typhoon path and the actual typhoon path.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the warp direction positional deviation calculated in S21 is used
And the mean positional deviation E in the warp direction calculated in S31 lon Substituting into the formula, the warp direction average absolute position deviation D can be calculated lon 。
And S52, calculating the latitudinal average absolute position deviation degree by using the position deviation and the average position deviation.
The latitudinal average absolute position deviation degree meets the following requirements:
in this formula, D lat For said mean absolute position deviation in the weft direction, M represents the required inspectionWithin a certain forecast time limit of (a), all latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data; the latitudinal direction average absolute position deviation degree represents the difference degree of the shapes of the forecasted typhoon path and the actual typhoon path in the latitudinal direction.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the latitudinal position deviation B calculated in S22 is used i lat And the average position deviation E of the latitudinal direction calculated in S32 lat Substituting the average absolute position deviation D into the formula to calculate the average absolute position deviation D of the weft lat 。
And S6, calculating the consistency and the similarity error of the longitude and latitude forecasting results, and taking the average value of the average absolute position deviation and the average absolute position deviation to obtain the consistency and the similarity error of the forecasting results.
The forecast result consistency and the similarity degree error comprise a warp forecast result consistency and a similarity degree error and a weft forecast result consistency and a similarity degree error, and S6 specifically comprises the following steps:
and S61, calculating the consistency and similarity degree error of the warp prediction result.
The consistency and similarity degree errors of the warp direction forecast results meet the following conditions:
S lon ＝(A lon +D lon )×0.5
in this formula, S lon And (4) determining the consistency and similarity degree error of the warp prediction result.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the mean absolute positional deviation a in the warp direction calculated in S41 is used lon And calculating the warp direction average absolute position deviation degree D in S51 lon Substituting into the formula, calculating out the consistency and similarity degree error S of the warp direction forecast result lon 。
And S62, calculating the consistency and similarity degree error of the latitudinal prediction result.
The latitudinal prediction result consistency and the similarity error meet the following requirements:
S lat ＝(A lat +D lat )×0.5
in this formula, S lat And determining the consistency and similarity degree error of the weft prediction result.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the average absolute position deviation a in the latitudinal direction calculated in S42 is used lat And the average absolute position deviation D in the latitudinal direction calculated in S52 lat Substituting the formula into the formula, calculating out the latitudinal direction forecast result consistency and similarity degree error S lat 。
And S7, obtaining the inspection result according to the forecast result consistency and the similarity error.
The test result satisfies the following formula:
in this formula, T y English name abbreviation for typhoon with watch, T r English abbreviation with tabular path, S i English abbreviation with table similarity.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the warp prediction result consistency and the similarity degree error S calculated in S6 are used as the similarity degree error lon And the consistency and similarity degree error S of the latitudinal direction forecast result lat And calculating the test result by substituting the test result into the formula.
More specifically, in this embodiment, please refer to fig. 3, the path error is a distance error between a 120-hour typhoon forecast position and a typhoon actual position, which is calculated by the existing typhoon path forecast inspection technology, of the european central model, that is, 123.6 km, which is much lower than the current 120-hour annual average path forecast error, but the inspection result of the path trajectory forecasted by the european central model reaches 309.4 km, which is much higher than 123.6 km, that is, the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity are poor, which indicates that a certain forecast time-efficient path forecast error is small and the whole typhoon path trajectory forecasted without a table has high consistency and similarity with the actual typhoon moving trajectory, and also proves that the inspection method for the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity provided by the present invention can make up for the deficiency of the conventional path forecast error inspection index.
It should be noted that in some cases, the actions described in this specification can be performed in a different order and still achieve desirable results, and in the present embodiment, the order of steps is given only for the sake of clarity and convenience of illustration, not for the sake of limitation; for example, in other embodiments, the order of step S3 and step S4 may be interchanged.
Referring to fig. 4, the present embodiment further provides a device for checking the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity, which is used for checking the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity by using any one of the above methods for checking the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity, and includes an input device, a processor, a storage and an output device.
And the input device A1 is used for inputting the acquired typhoon optimal path data and the acquired typhoon path forecast data into the device through the input device A1 and submitting the data to the processor A2 for data processing.
The processor A2 is connected with the input device A1, after the processor A2 receives the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data from the input device A1, the processor A2 starts to process the received data and obtain a calculation result, the calculation result includes the warp position deviation, the latitudinal position deviation, the warp average position deviation, the latitudinal average absolute position deviation, the meridional average absolute position deviation, the latitudinal average absolute position deviation, the warp typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity error, the latitudinal typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity error and the inspection result, and finally the processor A2 delivers the obtained calculation result to the storage A3.
And the storage A3 is connected with the processor A2, and after the storage A3 receives the calculation result from the processor A2, the storage A3 stores the calculation result and delivers the calculation result to the output device A4.
And the output device A4 is connected with the storage A3, after the output device A4 receives the calculation result from the storage, the output device A4 outputs the calculation result, and the detection result in the output result can be used for detecting the typhoon path forecast consistency and the similarity degree.
Specifically, the test result should be a positive number greater than zero, and the smaller the test result is, the better the typhoon path prediction consistency and similarity are; the larger the test result is, the worse the typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity are.
In conclusion, the method and the device solve the problem that the consistency and the similarity degree of the path track predicted in the prediction timeliness and the path moved by the actual typhoon are not checked in the prior art; according to the method, the integrity and the relevance of the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data are emphasized, and the detection result of the typhoon path forecast consistency and the similarity degree error is finally obtained as a high-order path forecast detection index which comprehensively considers the position deviation degree and the shape track difference degree between the forecasted typhoon path and the actual typhoon path; the technology of the invention not only provides a judgment basis for research personnel to improve the forecasting technology of the typhoon path forecasting method, provides a reference basis for reasonable use and analysis of the typhoon path forecasting method and forecasting characteristics for the forecaster, further provides technical support for improving typhoon disaster prevention and reduction capability, but also opens a new idea for various data analysis, and can be applied to data analysis in different fields.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention, and they should be construed as being included in the following claims and description.
Claims (10)
1. A method for checking the forecast consistency and similarity degree of a typhoon path is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring typhoon optimal path data and typhoon path forecast data;
obtaining the position deviation of each forecast point in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon path forecast data according to the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data;
obtaining an average position deviation and an average absolute position deviation by using the position deviation;
calculating and obtaining an average absolute position deviation degree according to the position deviation and the average position deviation;
taking the average absolute position deviation and the average absolute position deviation to obtain the consistency of the forecast result and the error of the similarity degree;
and obtaining the detection result of the typhoon path prediction consistency and the similarity error according to the prediction result consistency and the similarity error.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining the positional deviation from the typhoon-best path data and the typhoon path forecast data comprises:
obtaining a warp direction position deviation according to the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data;
and obtaining the latitudinal position deviation according to the typhoon optimal path data and the typhoon path forecast data.
3. The method for checking the forecast consistency and similarity degree of the typhoon path according to the claim 2, wherein the warp-wise position deviation satisfies the following formula:
wherein ,
the warp position deviation corresponding to the ith longitude point,
representing the longitude f of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith longitude point;
the longitude b of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith longitude point is represented;
represents the latitude f1 of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith longitude point,
representing the latitude b1 of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith longitude point; m represents all longitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time limit to be checked, and 111.1 is a conversion coefficient for converting 1 longitude into a kilometer.
4. A method for verifying the uniformity and similarity of typhoon path forecasts according to claim 3, wherein the latitudinal position deviation satisfies the following formula:
wherein ,
is the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point,
representing the latitude f of the typhoon in the typhoon path forecast data corresponding to the ith latitude point;
representing the latitude b of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time limit to be checked, and 111.1 is a simple conversion coefficient for converting 1 latitude into a kilometer.
5. The method for checking the forecast consistency and the similarity degree of the typhoon path according to the claim 4, wherein the average position deviation comprises a warp direction average position deviation and a weft direction average position deviation, which respectively satisfy the following formulas:
wherein ,Elon For the average positional deviation in the warp direction,
a warp direction position deviation corresponding to the ith longitude point; e lat Is the average positional deviation in the weft direction,
the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all longitude or latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time period to be checked.
6. The method for verifying the forecast consistency and similarity degree of the typhoon path according to claim 4, wherein the average absolute position deviation comprises a warp direction average absolute position deviation and a weft direction average absolute position deviation, which respectively satisfy the following formulas:
wherein ,Alon Is the mean absolute position deviation of the warp direction,
the corresponding longitude position deviation of the ith longitude point is obtained; a. The lat Is the average absolute position deviation in the weft direction,
the latitudinal position deviation corresponding to the ith latitude point; m represents all longitude or latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast age to be checked.
7. The method for verifying the consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecasts according to claim 5, wherein the average absolute position deviation degrees comprise a warp direction average absolute position deviation degree and a weft direction average absolute position deviation degree, which respectively satisfy the following formulas:
wherein ,Dlon For the degree of warp-wise mean absolute position deviation,
warp-wise positional deviation corresponding to ith longitude point, E lon -said warp direction mean position deviation; d lat Is the average absolute position deviation in the weft direction,
deviation of latitudinal position corresponding to ith latitude point, E lat The average position deviation of the weft direction is taken as the average position deviation of the weft direction; m represents all longitude or latitude points along the typhoon path in the typhoon path forecast data and the typhoon optimal path data within a certain forecast time period to be checked.
8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the prediction result consistency and similarity error comprises a warp prediction result consistency and similarity error and a weft prediction result consistency and similarity error, which respectively satisfy the following formulas:
S lon ＝(A lon +D lon )×0.5
S lat ＝(A lat +D lat )×0.5
wherein ,Slon For the warp prediction result consistency and similarity error, A lon Is the mean absolute positional deviation of the warp direction, D lon The mean absolute position deviation degree of the warp direction is taken as the mean absolute position deviation degree of the warp direction; s lat In the weft direction ofError in the consistency and similarity of the prediction results, A lat Is the mean absolute position deviation in the weft direction, D lat And the average absolute position deviation degree of the weft direction is taken.
9. The method for detecting the consistency and similarity of the typhoon path forecast according to the claim 8, wherein the detection result satisfies the following formula:
wherein ,Slon For the warp prediction result consistency and similarity degree error, S lat For the latitudinal prediction result consistency and similarity degree error, T y English name abbreviation with watch typhoon, T r English abbreviation with tabular path, S i English abbreviation with table similarity.
10. An apparatus for verifying typhoon path forecast consistency and similarity, comprising:
an input device for inputting data;
the processor is used for calculating data and obtaining a calculation result, and the processor is connected with the input equipment;
a storage for storing the calculation result, the storage being connected to the processor;
the output device outputs the calculation result and is connected with the storage;
the device for checking the consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecasts performs the method according to any one of claims 1-9.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202211267491.7A CN115685387B (en) | 2022-10-17 | 2022-10-17 | Method and device for detecting consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecast |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202211267491.7A CN115685387B (en) | 2022-10-17 | 2022-10-17 | Method and device for detecting consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecast |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN115685387A true CN115685387A (en) | 2023-02-03 |
| CN115685387B CN115685387B (en) | 2023-05-19 |
Family
ID=85066725
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202211267491.7A Active CN115685387B (en) | 2022-10-17 | 2022-10-17 | Method and device for detecting consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecast |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN115685387B (en) |
Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2000155036A (en) * | 1998-11-19 | 2000-06-06 | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | Route predicting device |
| CN102156308A (en) * | 2011-03-09 | 2011-08-17 | 南京恩瑞特实业有限公司 | Method for discriminating typhoon path |
| CN103365958A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2013-10-23 | 南京信大高科技发展有限公司 | Typhoon forecasting platform and typhoon track retrieval method |
| CN114444020A (en) * | 2021-11-09 | 2022-05-06 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Air temperature forecast correction system for power grid tower point |
| CN114637806A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-06-17 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Visual analysis method for tropical cyclone forecast inspection index data |
-
2022
- 2022-10-17 CN CN202211267491.7A patent/CN115685387B/en active Active
Patent Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2000155036A (en) * | 1998-11-19 | 2000-06-06 | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | Route predicting device |
| CN102156308A (en) * | 2011-03-09 | 2011-08-17 | 南京恩瑞特实业有限公司 | Method for discriminating typhoon path |
| CN103365958A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2013-10-23 | 南京信大高科技发展有限公司 | Typhoon forecasting platform and typhoon track retrieval method |
| CN114444020A (en) * | 2021-11-09 | 2022-05-06 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Air temperature forecast correction system for power grid tower point |
| CN114637806A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-06-17 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Visual analysis method for tropical cyclone forecast inspection index data |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN115685387B (en) | 2023-05-19 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Krueger et al. | Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the 20CR reanalysis and observations | |
| Hanson et al. | Pacific hindcast performance of three numerical wave models | |
| Mohapatra et al. | Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department | |
| CN106021710B (en) | Satellite orbit abnormality recognition method before shake based on atmospheric ionization layer parameter | |
| Hong et al. | Basis for recommending an update of wind velocity pressures in Canadian design codes | |
| CN105046581B (en) | Transmission line of electricity high wind trip risk appraisal procedure based on multi-parameter wind load | |
| CN106321368A (en) | Offshore wind power plant wake flow loss measuring method based on running draught fan SCADA data | |
| CN104182594A (en) | Method for drawing power system wind area graph | |
| Kunii et al. | Estimating the impact of real observations in regional numerical weather prediction using an ensemble Kalman filter | |
| Lucio-Eceiza et al. | Quality control of surface wind observations in northeastern North America. Part II: Measurement errors | |
| CN113282576B (en) | Meteorological data quality control method | |
| Guan et al. | Development of verification methodology for extreme weather forecasts | |
| Risser et al. | Detected changes in precipitation extremes at their native scales derived from in situ measurements | |
| CN115758876A (en) | Method, system and computer equipment for forecasting accuracy of wind speed and wind direction | |
| Letson et al. | Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States | |
| MacAfee et al. | Development and testing of tropical cyclone parametric wind models tailored for midlatitude application—Preliminary results | |
| Young | Detecting and removing inhomogeneities from long-term monthly sea level pressure time series | |
| Miller et al. | A preliminary assessment of using spatiotemporal lightning patterns for a binary classification of thunderstorm mode | |
| CN115685387B (en) | Method and device for detecting consistency and similarity of typhoon path forecast | |
| CN110059423B (en) | Tropical cyclone objective strength determining method based on multi-factor generalized linear model | |
| Bai et al. | Reexamination of the tropical cyclone wind–pressure relationship based on pre-1987 aircraft data in the western North Pacific | |
| CN113176420B (en) | Wind speed forecast correction system for power grid pole tower point | |
| CN113408656B (en) | Power failure level classification method suitable for being caused by meteorological change | |
| CN109583095A (en) | NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON extended peroid forecasting procedure based on mixing statistics dynamic model | |
| Guo et al. | Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |