CN106779274A - A kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system - Google Patents

A kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system Download PDF

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CN106779274A
CN106779274A CN201610246132.1A CN201610246132A CN106779274A CN 106779274 A CN106779274 A CN 106779274A CN 201610246132 A CN201610246132 A CN 201610246132A CN 106779274 A CN106779274 A CN 106779274A
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CN106779274B (en
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陈钦柱
梁亚峰
姚冬
韩来君
刘典安
邓琨
林圳杰
赵国杰
温启良
许德成
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HAINAN POWER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Shenzhen Comtop Information Technology Co Ltd
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HAINAN POWER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Shenzhen Comtop Information Technology Co Ltd
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Abstract

The present invention proposes a kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system；The method for early warning is comprised the following steps：Obtain the mobile route of current typhoon, and the Euclidean distance between the mobile route of current typhoon and the mobile route of each history typhoon is calculated respectively, calculate the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Similarity, confidence level similarity corresponding relation and power equipment according to current typhoon and each history typhoon are subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, are calculated confidence level of the power equipment by every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；If power equipment is subject to the confidence level of any one influence degree of current typhoon influence to be more than confidence threshold value, corresponding early warning signal is sent.Power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the invention and system accuracy are high, practical.

Description

A kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of electrical equipment, more particularly to a kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and it is System.
Background technology
Typhoon has the characteristics of randomness is strong, coverage is wide, outburst energy is huge, is coastal area power network One of significant threat of safe and stable operation.When typhoon disaster is tackled, power grid operation personnel are mainly basis Previous experiences before typhoon by improve equipment health status (such as line corridor clear up, shaft tower reinforce, Elimination of equipment defect, protection stability control equipment regular inspection etc.) equipment is reduced by the wind-induced fault rate of platform.
However, the knowledge in the general lack of meteorology field of power grid operation personnel, it is difficult to grasp typhoon comprehensively in time Disaster information, and then be difficult to pointedly to that by typhoon the grid equipment of failure may be caused to carry out special fortune Dimension.And if generally investigated all grid equipments, then need to expend substantial amounts of manpower and materials.
The content of the invention
Knowledge of the present invention for the general lack of meteorology field of power grid operation personnel, it is difficult to grasp comprehensively in time The disaster information of typhoon, and then be difficult to pointedly to that by typhoon the grid equipment of failure may be caused to carry out spy The problem of different O＆M, it is proposed that a kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system.
Technical scheme proposed by the present invention is as follows：
The present invention proposes a kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk, comprises the following steps：
Step S1, the mobile data path storehouse for setting up history typhoon；Set up current Typhoon Tracks path and go through The similarity of similarity between Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path- Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Influence degree database of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence is set up, And every kind of shadow of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence is calculated according to the influence degree database The confidence level of the degree of sound；Set up current typhoon and be subject to current typhoon with power equipment with the similarity of history typhoon The confidence level of the confidence level of influence-similarity corresponding relation；Power equipment is set up by current typhoon influence Confidence threshold value；
Step S2, obtain the mobile route of current typhoon, and calculate respectively the mobile route of current typhoon with Euclidean distance between the mobile route of each history typhoon, further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity-European Distance correspondence calculates the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively；
Step S3, the similarity according to current typhoon and each history typhoon, confidence level-similarity are corresponding to close System and power equipment are subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, are calculated electricity Power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to current The confidence level of certain influence degree of typhoon influence is equal to the confidence that the power equipment is subject to current typhoon influence Degree is subject to the product of the confidence level of this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence with the power equipment respectively With；If power equipment is subject to the confidence level of any one influence degree of current typhoon influence to be more than confidence level threshold During value, then corresponding early warning signal is sent.
In the above-mentioned power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the present invention, set up current Typhoon Tracks path and go through The similarity of similarity between Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path- The process of Euclidean distance corresponding relation includes following sub-step：
Set up the solar or lunar halo range data storehouse of history typhoon；Set up the influence degree and platform of typhoon influence power equipment Corresponding relation between wind solar or lunar halo scope；Mobile data path storehouse, the wind of history typhoon according to history typhoon It is corresponding between circle range data storehouse and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment Relation, obtains the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridi,k；
The mobile route and solar or lunar halo scope of current typhoon are obtained, and according to the mobile route and solar or lunar halo of current typhoon Corresponding relation between scope and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment, obtains The scope of current typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridt0；
According to the Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon, the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment With the scope of current typhoon influence power equipment, it is calculated similar between current typhoon and history typhoon Degree, has：
Wherein, sim (Patht0,Pathi) it is similarity between current typhoon and history typhoon；
D(Patht0,Pathi) it is Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon；
αiIt is correction factor；
λ is the normal parameter set according to actual conditions.
In the above-mentioned power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the present invention, in step s 2, by current typhoon Mobile route be expressed as：
Patht0=(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)；…；Lat-1,Lot-1；Lat-0,Lot-0)
Wherein, (Lat-0,Lot-0) represent the current nearest first time positioning of distance current center of typhoon seat Mark；
(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)) represent the current nearest n-th positioning of distance current center of typhoon coordinate；
History typhoon is expressed as into the mobile route after before Landed Typhoon 48 small warning lines：
Pathi=(Lai,1,Loi,1；…；Lai,2,Loi,2；Lai,N,Loi,N)
Wherein, (Lai,1,Loi,1) represent that the history typhoon has just enter into after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon The coordinate of the history center of typhoon of secondary positioning；
(Lai,N,Loi,N) represent the history typhoon into the n-th positioning after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon History center of typhoon coordinate；
The constituted mobile route of continuous n positioning of history typhoon is expressed as：
Pathi,k=(Lai,k,Loi,k；…；Lai,k+1,Loi,k+1；Lai,k+n-1,Loi,k+n-1)；Wherein, 1≤k≤k+n-1≤N；
Calculate history typhoon position for all of continuous n time constituted mobile route respectively with current typhoon Euclidean distance between mobile route, and its minimum value is taken, it is designated as the mobile route and the history of current typhoon Euclidean distance between the mobile route of typhoon.
In the above-mentioned power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the present invention, also include：Whether judge current typhoon Before into Landed Typhoon in 48 small warning lines, if so, then performing step S2.
The invention allows for a kind of power equipment typhoon Warning System, including with lower module：
Editor module, the mobile data path storehouse for setting up history typhoon；Set up current Typhoon Tracks path The phase of similarity between the Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path Like degree-Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Set up influence degree number of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence According to storehouse, and power equipment is calculated by the every of each history typhoon influence according to the influence degree database Plant the confidence level of influence degree；Set up current typhoon and be subject to current with power equipment with the similarity of history typhoon The confidence level of the confidence level of typhoon influence-similarity corresponding relation；Power equipment is set up by current typhoon shadow Loud confidence threshold value；
Locating module, the mobile route for obtaining current typhoon,
Computing module, for calculating the mobile route of current typhoon and the mobile route of each history typhoon respectively Between Euclidean distance, further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation calculate respectively work as The similarity of preceding typhoon and each history typhoon；
It is additionally operable to similarity, the confidence level-similarity corresponding relation according to current typhoon and each history typhoon And power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, is calculated electric power Equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to work as foreground The confidence level of certain influence degree of wind effect is equal to the confidence level that the power equipment is subject to current typhoon influence Be subject to the power equipment respectively this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence confidence level product and；
Alarm modules, if being subject to the confidence of any one influence degree of current typhoon influence for power equipment When degree is more than confidence threshold value, then corresponding early warning signal is sent.
In the above-mentioned power equipment typhoon Warning System of the present invention, set up current Typhoon Tracks path and go through The similarity of similarity between Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path- The process of Euclidean distance corresponding relation includes following sub-step：
Set up the solar or lunar halo range data storehouse of history typhoon；Set up the influence degree and platform of typhoon influence power equipment Corresponding relation between wind solar or lunar halo scope；Mobile data path storehouse, the wind of history typhoon according to history typhoon It is corresponding between circle range data storehouse and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment Relation, obtains the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridi,k；
The mobile route and solar or lunar halo scope of current typhoon are obtained, and according to the mobile route and solar or lunar halo of current typhoon Corresponding relation between scope and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment, obtains The scope of current typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridt0；
According to the Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon, the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment With the scope of current typhoon influence power equipment, it is calculated similar between current typhoon and history typhoon Degree, has：
Wherein, sim (Patht0,Pathi) it is similarity between current typhoon and history typhoon；
D(Patht0,Pathi) it is Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon；
αiIt is correction factor；
λ is the normal parameter set according to actual conditions.
In the above-mentioned power equipment typhoon Warning System of the present invention, the mobile route of current typhoon is represented For：
Patht0=(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)；…；Lat-1,Lot-1；Lat-0,Lot-0)
Wherein, (Lat-0,Lot-0) represent the current nearest first time positioning of distance current center of typhoon seat Mark；
(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)) represent the current nearest n-th positioning of distance current center of typhoon coordinate；
History typhoon is expressed as into the mobile route after before Landed Typhoon 48 small warning lines：
Pathi=(Lai,1,Loi,1；…；Lai,2,Loi,2；Lai,N,Loi,N)
Wherein, (Lai,1,Loi,1) represent that the history typhoon has just enter into after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon The coordinate of the history center of typhoon of secondary positioning；
(Lai,N,Loi,N) represent the history typhoon into the n-th positioning after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon History center of typhoon coordinate；
The constituted mobile route of continuous n positioning of history typhoon is expressed as：
Pathi,k=(Lai,k,Loi,k；…；Lai,k+1,Loi,k+1；Lai,k+n-1,Loi,k+n-1)；Wherein, 1≤k≤k+n-1≤N；
Calculate history typhoon position for all of continuous n time constituted mobile route respectively with current typhoon Euclidean distance between mobile route, and its minimum value is taken, it is designated as the mobile route and the history of current typhoon Euclidean distance between the mobile route of typhoon.
In the above-mentioned power equipment typhoon Warning System of the present invention, also include：
Judge module, for judging whether current typhoon enters before Landed Typhoon in 48 small warning lines, if so, Then：
The mobile route that locating module obtains current typhoon is ordered about, computing module is ordered about and is calculated current typhoon respectively Mobile route and the mobile route of each history typhoon between Euclidean distance, further according to the Euclidean distance and Similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation calculates the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively；And root According to the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon, confidence level-similarity corresponding relation and power equipment By the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, it is calculated power equipment and is subject to current The confidence level of every kind of influence degree of typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to certain of current typhoon influence The confidence level of influence degree be equal to the power equipment be subject to current typhoon influence confidence level respectively with the electric power Equipment is subject to the sum of the product of the confidence level of this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence.
Power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the invention and system are by by current typhoon and history typhoon Similarity-rough set is carried out, so as to judge the confidence level of current typhoon influence power equipment, and is with the confidence level Standard carries out early warning.Creatively be compared for the mobile route of current typhoon and history typhoon by the present invention, Current typhoon is judged by the Euclidean distance between current Typhoon Tracks path and history Typhoon Tracks path With the similarity of history typhoon, so as to realize the quantitative analysis to current typhoon and history typhoon similarity.This The power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system accuracy of invention are high, practical.
Brief description of the drawings
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described, in accompanying drawing：
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the Similarity Measure step of the embodiment of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the invention Flow chart；
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of power equipment health status and the two-dimensional matrix of typhoon influence degree.
Specific embodiment
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is：The knowledge in the general lack of meteorology field of power grid operation personnel, It is difficult to grasp comprehensively in time the disaster information of typhoon, and then is difficult to pointedly to failure may be caused by typhoon Grid equipment carry out special O＆M.And if generally investigated all grid equipments, then need to expend a large amount of Manpower and materials.It is proposed by the present invention solve the technical problem technical thought be：By by current typhoon with History typhoon carries out similarity-rough set, so that judge the confidence level of current typhoon influence power equipment, and with this Confidence level carries out early warning for standard.
Reference picture 1, the present invention proposes a kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk, including with step：
Step 100, the mobile data path storehouse for setting up history typhoon；Set up current Typhoon Tracks path and go through The similarity of similarity between Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path- Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Influence degree database of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence is set up, And every kind of shadow of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence is calculated according to the influence degree database The confidence level of the degree of sound；Set up current typhoon and be subject to current typhoon with power equipment with the similarity of history typhoon The confidence level of the confidence level of influence-similarity corresponding relation；Power equipment is set up by current typhoon influence Confidence threshold value；
Between each sub-step of this step and in no particular order order；Pass through between each sub-step of this step "；” Connection.
In meteorological field, when typhoon is soon logged in, it will usually at regular intervals, center of typhoon is carried out Positioning, the center of typhoon position of each positioning is stringed together sequentially in time, you can obtain the movement of typhoon Path.In China, meteorological observatory defines two warning lines in typhoon defence field：48 is small before Landed Typhoon Warning line (34 ° of N, 132 ° of E；15°N,132°E；0 °, 105 ° of E) and Landed Typhoon before 24 hours warning lines (34°N,127°E；21°N,127°E；15°N,110°E).If center of typhoon is 48 small before Landed Typhoon When warning line to the east of region, then one-time positioning was carried out to center of typhoon in every 6 hours；If center of typhoon is in platform Wind logs in region and the region to the east of 24 hours warning lines before Landed Typhoon to the west of preceding 48 hours warning lines, then One-time positioning was carried out to center of typhoon in every 3 hours；If center of typhoon 24 small warning line before Landed Typhoon To the west of region, then one-time positioning was carried out to center of typhoon in every 1 hour.It is appreciated that being carried out to center of typhoon The time interval of positioning is not limited to above-mentioned setting.
Further, the symbol of similarity is designated as sim, the symbol of Euclidean distance is designated as D, then it is similar Degree-Euclidean distance corresponding relation is：
It is appreciated that similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation is not limited to above-mentioned setting, can also be according to platform The solar or lunar halo scope of wind, is modified to above-mentioned similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation.Specifically, set up and work as Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between preceding typhoon mobile route and history Typhoon Tracks path Between similarity similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation process include following sub-step：
Set up the solar or lunar halo range data storehouse of history typhoon；Set up the influence degree and platform of typhoon influence power equipment Corresponding relation between wind solar or lunar halo scope；Mobile data path storehouse, the wind of history typhoon according to history typhoon It is corresponding between circle range data storehouse and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment Relation, obtains the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridi,k；
The mobile route and solar or lunar halo scope of current typhoon are obtained, and according to the mobile route and solar or lunar halo of current typhoon Corresponding relation between scope and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment, obtains The scope of current typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridt0；
According to the Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon, the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment With the scope of current typhoon influence power equipment, it is calculated similar between current typhoon and history typhoon Degree, has：
Wherein, sim (Patht0,Pathi) it is similarity between current typhoon and history typhoon；
D(Patht0,Pathi) it is Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon；
αiIt is correction factor；
λ is the normal parameter set according to actual conditions, for example, λ is 0.5.
Can be the net of decile by region zones for the ease of calculating during actually correction factor is calculated Lattice, such as carry out grid division, and each grid is numbered with the size of (0.01 °, 0.01 °).Meanwhile, Typhoon solar or lunar halo scope only considers the scope of storm circle.So, if a certain grid is in the storm of typhoon In the range of circle, then it is assumed that the power equipment in the grid can be influenceed by typhoon.
It is corresponding between the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment in above-mentioned steps Relation can be：
Herein, between the influence degree of the typhoon influence power equipment shown in upper table and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope Corresponding relation is only exemplary relation, is not restricted.The influence degree of typhoon influence power equipment It is subject to the sensitiveness of typhoon influence, electric power to set according to power equipment with the corresponding relation between typhoon solar or lunar halo scope The difference of the properties such as standby importance can be adjusted suitably.
Further, what power equipment was subject to the influence degree data-base recording of each history typhoon influence is this The suffered influence degree under each history typhoon of power equipment, and passing through these data can calculate acquisition Power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon；For example, in ten history typhoons In, certain power equipment is subject to the shadow of the first history typhoon therein, the second history typhoon and the 3rd history typhoon Ring, influence degree is respectively moderate, high degree and moderate, then the power equipment is subject to first The confidence level of the moderate influence of history typhoon is 0.1, and these are all Probability ABC, are not just existed This is repeated one by one.
Further, according to a large amount of practical experiences in China, the similarity of current typhoon and history typhoon with Power equipment is subject to the confidence level-similarity corresponding relation of the confidence level of current typhoon influence to be expressed as：
Similarity [0,0.20) [0.20,0.40) [0.40,0.60) [0.60,0.80) [0.80,1]
Confidence level 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8
Confidence level of the invention-similarity corresponding relation is not limited to the corresponding relation shown in upper table, the present invention Confidence level-similarity corresponding relation can be changed according to different geographical topographic features.
Step 200, obtain the mobile route of current typhoon, and calculate respectively the mobile route of current typhoon with Euclidean distance between the mobile route of each history typhoon, further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity-European Distance correspondence calculates the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively；
As shown in Fig. 2 present invention additionally comprises：Judge whether current typhoon enters 48 small polices before Landed Typhoon Line is guarded against, if so, then performing step 200, if not, then it represents that typhoon is still remote apart from land, is not done further Treatment；
The mobile route of current typhoon is expressed as：
Patht0=(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)；…；Lat-1,Lot-1；Lat-0,Lot-0)
Wherein, (Lat-0,Lot-0) represent the current nearest first time positioning of distance current center of typhoon seat Mark；
(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)) represent the current nearest n-th positioning of distance current center of typhoon coordinate；
History typhoon is expressed as into the mobile route after before Landed Typhoon 48 small warning lines：
Pathi=(Lai,1,Loi,1；…；Lai,2,Loi,2；Lai,N,Loi,N)
Wherein, (Lai,1,Loi,1) represent that the history typhoon has just enter into after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon The coordinate of the history center of typhoon of secondary positioning；
(Lai,N,Loi,N) represent the history typhoon into the n-th positioning after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon History center of typhoon coordinate；
And be expressed as the constituted mobile route of continuous n positioning of history typhoon：
Pathi,k=(Lai,k,Loi,k；…；Lai,k+1,Loi,k+1；Lai,k+n-1,Loi,k+n-1)；Wherein, 1≤k≤k+n-1≤N；
Calculate history typhoon position for all of continuous n time constituted mobile route respectively with current typhoon Euclidean distance between mobile route, and its minimum value is taken, it is designated as the mobile route and the history of current typhoon Euclidean distance between the mobile route of typhoon；
Specifically, the movement of the continuous n positioning of history typhoon constituted mobile route with current typhoon Euclidean distance between path is：
Currently the Euclidean distance between the mobile route of typhoon and the mobile route of the history typhoon is：
D(Patht0,Pathi)=min (D (Patht0,Pathi,1),…,D(Patht0,Pathi,k)…,D(Patht0,Pathi,N-k+1))；
The mobile route of current typhoon is with the similarity of the mobile route of the history typhoon：
Wherein, to improve computational efficiency, corresponding some rule can be set up according to the movement law of history typhoon Then, reducing the calculation times of typhoon similarity.For example, being spaced to complete with certain latitude interval and longitude State land and to the north of equator, to the west of 180 ° of warps northwest Pacific and South China Sea carry out region division, so Whether it is in identical region to screen ginseng according to current center of typhoon position when entering 48 hours warning lines afterwards With the history typhoon of Similarity Measure.Or Europe is being carried out to all possible continuous n points path of history typhoon When family name's distance is calculated, then stop calculating when distance value is increasing reducing calculation times etc..
This step also includes：Judge whether current typhoon enters 24 hours warning lines before Landed Typhoon, if It is no, then next centre coordinate of current typhoon to be obtained such as, and Similarity Measure is carried out again；If it is, Then enter step 300.
Step 300, the similarity according to current typhoon and each history typhoon, confidence level-similarity are corresponding Relation and power equipment are subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, are calculated Power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to work as The confidence level of certain influence degree of preceding typhoon influence is put equal to the power equipment by current typhoon influence Reliability is subject to the product of the confidence level of this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence with the power equipment respectively Sum；If power equipment is subject to the confidence level of any one influence degree of current typhoon influence to be more than confidence level During threshold value, then corresponding early warning signal is sent.
Preferably, in this step, confidence level vector of the power equipment by current typhoon influence can be defined ERi=(Rbi,Rmi,Rsi,Rni).Wherein, RbiIt is power equipment by the confidence that degree influenceed such as current typhoon is high Degree, RmiFor power equipment receives the moderate confidence level for influenceing of current typhoon, RsiIt is that power equipment is received currently The confidence level of the low degree influence of typhoon, RniBe power equipment by current typhoon influence confidence level.
Gained knowledge according to probability, had：
Rbi+Rmi+Rsi+Rni=1
Wherein, Rbi,jFor power equipment according to jth history typhoon convert by current typhoon is high etc., degree is influenceed Confidence level；Rmi,jFor power equipment is influenceed by current typhoon is moderate according to what jth history typhoon was converted Confidence level；Rsi,jFor power equipment is influenceed according to what jth history typhoon was converted by the low degree of current typhoon Confidence level；Rni,jFor the confidence for not receiving current typhoon influence that power equipment is converted according to jth history typhoon Degree.In other embodiments, if Rbi、RmiAnd RsiIn any one be more than a certain confidence threshold value when, Then send early warning signal.
In the present embodiment, weight coefficient is also introduced, power equipment is defined and is put by current typhoon influence Reliability EFi, have：
EFi=max (wb·Rbi,wm·Rmi,ws·Rsi,wn·Rni)
Herein, weight coefficient carries out assignment according to actual conditions, by power equipment significance level situations such as Influence.In the present embodiment, ωb=1.73, ωm=1.44, ωs=1.20, ωn=1.0.
The size of power equipment typhoon risk is determined by two aspect factors, i.e. equipment health status and typhoon The destructive power of disaster, thus can by set up the two-dimensional matrix of equipment health status and typhoon influence degree come Determine the typhoon risk of power equipment.Two-dimensional matrix is usually according to the actual equipment Risk management of power grid enterprises System determines with experience.For example, can be received to be found when the influence degree and equipment O＆M of typhoon according to equipment Defect situation carry out equipment typhoon risk analysis, as shown in Figure 3.Wherein, red, orange, yellow, blue table Show equipment typhoon risk from high to low.
The power equipment typhoon risk of center and determination finally according to current typhoon, optionally issues Equipment typhoon Risk-warning.For example, when the current center of typhoon is located to the east of 24 hours warning lines, Then issue red and orange power equipment typhoon risk；After typhoon enters 24 hours warning lines, then send out Red, orange and yellow the power equipment typhoon risk of cloth.
Further, the invention allows for a kind of power equipment typhoon Warning System, for realization Power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk is stated, including with lower module：
Editor module, the mobile data path storehouse for setting up history typhoon；Set up current Typhoon Tracks path The phase of similarity between the Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path Like degree-Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Set up influence degree number of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence According to storehouse, and power equipment is calculated by the every of each history typhoon influence according to the influence degree database Plant the confidence level of influence degree；Set up current typhoon and be subject to current with power equipment with the similarity of history typhoon The confidence level of the confidence level of typhoon influence-similarity corresponding relation；Power equipment is set up by current typhoon shadow Loud confidence threshold value；
Locating module, the mobile route for obtaining current typhoon,
Computing module, for calculating the mobile route of current typhoon and the mobile route of each history typhoon respectively Between Euclidean distance, further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation calculate respectively work as The similarity of preceding typhoon and each history typhoon；
It is additionally operable to similarity, the confidence level-similarity corresponding relation according to current typhoon and each history typhoon And power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, is calculated electric power Equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to work as foreground The confidence level of certain influence degree of wind effect is equal to the confidence level that the power equipment is subject to current typhoon influence Be subject to the power equipment respectively this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence confidence level product and；
Alarm modules, if being subject to the confidence of any one influence degree of current typhoon influence for power equipment When degree is more than confidence threshold value, then corresponding early warning signal is sent.
The power equipment typhoon Warning System, also includes：
Judge module, for judging whether current typhoon enters before Landed Typhoon in 48 small warning lines, if so, Then：
The mobile route that locating module obtains current typhoon is ordered about, computing module is ordered about and is calculated current typhoon respectively Mobile route and the mobile route of each history typhoon between Euclidean distance, further according to the Euclidean distance and Similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation calculates the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively；And root According to the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon, confidence level-similarity corresponding relation and power equipment By the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, it is calculated power equipment and is subject to current The confidence level of every kind of influence degree of typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to certain of current typhoon influence The confidence level of influence degree be equal to the power equipment be subject to current typhoon influence confidence level respectively with the electric power Equipment is subject to the sum of the product of the confidence level of this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence.
Power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk of the invention and system are by by current typhoon and history typhoon Similarity-rough set is carried out, so as to judge the confidence level of current typhoon influence power equipment, and is with the confidence level Standard carries out early warning.Creatively be compared for the mobile route of current typhoon and history typhoon by the present invention, Current typhoon is judged by the Euclidean distance between current Typhoon Tracks path and history Typhoon Tracks path With the similarity of history typhoon, so as to realize the quantitative analysis to current typhoon and history typhoon similarity.This The power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk and system accuracy of invention are high, practical.
It should be appreciated that for those of ordinary skills, can be improved according to the above description Or conversion, and all these modifications and variations should all belong to the protection domain of appended claims of the present invention.

Claims (8)

1. a kind of power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
Step S1, the mobile data path storehouse for setting up history typhoon；Set up current Typhoon Tracks path and go through The similarity of similarity between Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between history Typhoon Tracks path- Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Influence degree database of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence is set up, And every kind of shadow of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence is calculated according to the influence degree database The confidence level of the degree of sound；Current typhoon is set up to be subject to work as foreground with power equipment with the similarity of history typhoon The confidence level of the confidence level of wind effect-similarity corresponding relation；Power equipment is set up by current typhoon influence Confidence threshold value；
Step S2, obtain the mobile route of current typhoon, and calculate respectively the mobile route of current typhoon with Euclidean distance between the mobile route of each history typhoon, further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity-European Distance correspondence calculates the similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively；
Step S3, the similarity according to current typhoon and each history typhoon, confidence level-similarity are corresponding to close System and power equipment are subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, are calculated Power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to The confidence level of certain influence degree of current typhoon influence is equal to the power equipment and is subject to current typhoon influence Confidence level respectively with the power equipment be subject to every kind of history typhoon influence this kind of influence degree confidence level it Long-pending sum；If power equipment is subject to the confidence level of any one influence degree of current typhoon influence to be more than putting During confidence threshold, then corresponding early warning signal is sent.
2. power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that build Vertical Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history between current Typhoon Tracks path and history Typhoon Tracks path The process of the similarity of similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation includes following sub-step between typhoon：
Set up the solar or lunar halo range data storehouse of history typhoon；Set up the influence degree of typhoon influence power equipment with Corresponding relation between typhoon solar or lunar halo scope；Mobile data path storehouse, history typhoon according to history typhoon Solar or lunar halo range data storehouse and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment between Corresponding relation, obtains the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridi,k；
The mobile route and solar or lunar halo scope of current typhoon are obtained, and according to the mobile route and wind of current typhoon Circle scope and the corresponding relation between the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment, The scope of current typhoon influence power equipment is obtained, Grid is designated ast0；
According to the Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon, the model of history typhoon influence power equipment The scope with current typhoon influence power equipment is enclosed, the phase between current typhoon and history typhoon is calculated Like spending, have：
s i m ( Path t 0 , Path i ) = α i 1 + D ( Path t 0 , Path i )
α i = λ + Grid t 0 ∩ Grid i , k Grid t 0
Wherein, sim (Patht0,Pathi) it is similarity between current typhoon and history typhoon；
D(Patht0,Pathi) it is Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon；
αiIt is correction factor；
λ is the normal parameter set according to actual conditions.
3. power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterised in that In step s 2, the mobile route of current typhoon is expressed as：
Patht0=(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)；…；Lat-1,Lot-1；Lat-0,Lot-0)
Wherein, (Lat-0,Lot-0) represent the current nearest first time positioning of distance current center of typhoon seat Mark；
(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)) represent the current nearest n-th positioning of distance current center of typhoon coordinate；
History typhoon is expressed as into the mobile route after before Landed Typhoon 48 small warning lines：
Pathi=(Lai,1,Loi,1；…；Lai,2,Loi,2；Lai,N,Loi,N)
Wherein, (Lai,1,Loi,1) represent that the history typhoon has just enter into after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon The coordinate of the history center of typhoon of secondary positioning；
(Lai,N,Loi,N) represent the history typhoon into the n-th positioning after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon History center of typhoon coordinate；
The constituted mobile route of continuous n positioning of history typhoon is expressed as：
Pathi,k=(Lai,k,Loi,k；…；Lai,k+1,Loi,k+1；Lai,k+n-1,Loi,k+n-1)；Wherein, 1≤k≤k+n-1≤N；
Calculate history typhoon position for all of continuous n time constituted mobile route respectively with current typhoon Euclidean distance between mobile route, and its minimum value is taken, the mobile route for being designated as current typhoon is gone through with this Euclidean distance between the mobile route of history typhoon.
4. power equipment typhoon method for prewarning risk according to claim 1, it is characterised in that also Including：Judge whether current typhoon enters before Landed Typhoon in 48 small warning lines, if so, then performing step S2。
5. a kind of power equipment typhoon Warning System, it is characterised in that including with lower module：
Editor module, the mobile data path storehouse for setting up history typhoon；Set up current Typhoon Tracks road Similarity between Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history typhoon between footpath and history Typhoon Tracks path Similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation；Set up influence degree of the power equipment by each history typhoon influence Database, and power equipment is calculated by each history typhoon influence according to the influence degree database Every kind of influence degree confidence level；Current typhoon is set up to be received with power equipment with the similarity of history typhoon To the confidence level-similarity corresponding relation of the confidence level of current typhoon influence；Set up power equipment and be subject to current The confidence threshold value of typhoon influence；
Locating module, the mobile route for obtaining current typhoon,
Computing module, for calculating the mobile route of current typhoon and the mobile road of each history typhoon respectively Euclidean distance between footpath, calculates respectively further according to the Euclidean distance and similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation The similarity of current typhoon and each history typhoon；
It is additionally operable to similarity, the confidence level-similarity corresponding relation according to current typhoon and each history typhoon And power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, is calculated electricity Power equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to work as The confidence level of certain influence degree of preceding typhoon influence is put equal to the power equipment by current typhoon influence Reliability is subject to the product of the confidence level of this kind of influence degree of every kind of history typhoon influence with the power equipment respectively Sum；
Alarm modules, if being subject to putting for any one influence degree of current typhoon influence for power equipment When reliability is more than confidence threshold value, then corresponding early warning signal is sent.
6. power equipment typhoon Warning System according to claim 5, it is characterised in that build Vertical Euclidean distance and current typhoon and history between current Typhoon Tracks path and history Typhoon Tracks path The process of the similarity of similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation includes following sub-step between typhoon：
Set up the solar or lunar halo range data storehouse of history typhoon；Set up the influence degree of typhoon influence power equipment with Corresponding relation between typhoon solar or lunar halo scope；Mobile data path storehouse, history typhoon according to history typhoon Solar or lunar halo range data storehouse and the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment between Corresponding relation, obtains the scope of history typhoon influence power equipment, is designated as Gridi,k；
The mobile route and solar or lunar halo scope of current typhoon are obtained, and according to the mobile route and wind of current typhoon Circle scope and the corresponding relation between the influence degree and typhoon solar or lunar halo scope of typhoon influence power equipment, The scope of current typhoon influence power equipment is obtained, Grid is designated ast0；
According to the Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon, the model of history typhoon influence power equipment The scope with current typhoon influence power equipment is enclosed, the phase between current typhoon and history typhoon is calculated Like spending, have：
s i m ( Path t 0 , Path i ) = α i 1 + D ( Path t 0 , Path i )
α i = λ + Grid t 0 ∩ Grid i , k Grid t 0
Wherein, sim (Patht0,Pathi) it is similarity between current typhoon and history typhoon；
D(Patht0,Pathi) it is Euclidean distance between current typhoon and history typhoon；
αiIt is correction factor；
λ is the normal parameter set according to actual conditions.
7. the power equipment typhoon Warning System according to claim 5 or 6, it is characterised in that The mobile route of current typhoon is expressed as：
Patht0=(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)；…；Lat-1,Lot-1；Lat-0,Lot-0)
Wherein, (Lat-0,Lot-0) represent the current nearest first time positioning of distance current center of typhoon seat Mark；
(Lat-(n-1),Lot-(n-1)) represent the current nearest n-th positioning of distance current center of typhoon coordinate；
History typhoon is expressed as into the mobile route after before Landed Typhoon 48 small warning lines：
Pathi=(Lai,1,Loi,1；…；Lai,2,Loi,2；Lai,N,Loi,N)
Wherein, (Lai,1,Loi,1) represent that the history typhoon has just enter into after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon The coordinate of the history center of typhoon of secondary positioning；
(Lai,N,Loi,N) represent the history typhoon into the n-th positioning after 48 small warning lines before Landed Typhoon History center of typhoon coordinate；
The constituted mobile route of continuous n positioning of history typhoon is expressed as：
Pathi,k=(Lai,k,Loi,k；…；Lai,k+1,Loi,k+1；Lai,k+n-1,Loi,k+n-1)；Wherein, 1≤k≤k+n-1≤N；
Calculate history typhoon position for all of continuous n time constituted mobile route respectively with current typhoon Euclidean distance between mobile route, and its minimum value is taken, the mobile route for being designated as current typhoon is gone through with this Euclidean distance between the mobile route of history typhoon.
8. power equipment typhoon Warning System according to claim 5, it is characterised in that also Including：
Judge module, for judging whether current typhoon enters before Landed Typhoon in 48 small warning lines, if so, Then：
The mobile route that locating module obtains current typhoon is ordered about, computing module is ordered about and is calculated respectively and work as foreground Euclidean distance between the mobile route of the mobile route of wind and each history typhoon, further according to this it is European away from From the similarity for calculating current typhoon and each history typhoon respectively with similarity-Euclidean distance corresponding relation； And similarity according to current typhoon and each history typhoon, confidence level-similarity corresponding relation and electric power Equipment is subject to the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of each history typhoon influence, is calculated power equipment and receives To the confidence level of every kind of influence degree of current typhoon influence；Wherein, power equipment is subject to current typhoon shadow The confidence level of certain loud influence degree is equal to the power equipment and is subject to the confidence level of current typhoon influence to distinguish With confidence level the product of this kind of influence degree that the power equipment is subject to every kind of history typhoon influence and.
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