CN106501878A - Estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method - Google Patents

Estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method Download PDF

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CN106501878A
CN106501878A CN201610905069.8A CN201610905069A CN106501878A CN 106501878 A CN106501878 A CN 106501878A CN 201610905069 A CN201610905069 A CN 201610905069A CN 106501878 A CN106501878 A CN 106501878A
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ensemble
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moment
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CN106501878B (en
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陈永平
潘毅
袁杰颖
尹硕
嵇静
陈淑敏
王家奇
陈佰川
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Hohai University HHU
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    • G01W—METEOROLOGY
    • G01W1/00—Meteorology
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Abstract

The invention discloses one kind estimates deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method, in the forecasting process of a typhoon, existing field data, and the forecast data of the different forecast stations is made full use of, the forecast precision of typhoon position forecast in 24 hours is improved.By to the actual measurement typhoon position before current time and 6 hours, and the forecast typhoon position in each 6,12,18,24 hours station futures, following 6,12,18,24 hour ensemble forecast position is calculated successively so that the ensemble forecasts forecast result of the position compared to each station closer to true value.The method can improve 24 hours forecast precisions of typhoon forecast and forecast stability.

Description

Estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method
Technical field
The invention belongs to typhoon forecast technical field, more particularly to one kind estimate deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method.
Background technology
For the particular problem of Typhoon Route Forecast, after a typhoon occurs and is monitored to, country variant and area The forecast station can furnish a forecast path, these forecast paths all can difference on position and maximum wind velocity.And storm The forecast precision of tide is controlled by the forecast precision of typhoon field, and therefore, the choice in typhoon forecast path becomes storm-surge forecasting and faces A major issue.For the forecast data for making full use of the different forecast stations to provide, there is provided one more reliable and accurate Typhoon Route Forecast result, the method for the super ensemble method of multi-mode is suggested, and considers the forecast knot of the different stations Really, according to the performance when each station forecasts history typhoon, the correction of each station different weight and forecast result deviation is given, The super ensemble forecast result for obtaining decreases on mean error relative to each station.
Although super ensemble forecast result decreases on mean error relative to each station, as which is based on respectively The history performance of the station is accounted for, and larger forecast departure easily occurs, cause this storm in the forecast of single typhoon The larger error of tide forecast.In order to solve this problem, the present invention is on the basis of super ensemble thought, it is proposed that estimate partially Difference method, it is considered to performance of each station when this typhoon is forecast, is modified and gives weight to forecast next time, obtained more Reliable forecast result.
Content of the invention
In order to solve deficiency of the prior art, the present invention is using the measured value and predicted value before current time and 6 hours The deviation of estimating extended linearly to estimate subsequent time, and then estimated with this deviation come revise predicted value and calculate weight, so The ensemble predicted value that be to greatest extent close to true value of 6 hour is calculated afterwards；Next replaced very with 6 hours ensemble predicted values Value, calculates 12,18,24 hours predicted values by that analogy.
For achieving the above object, the technical solution used in the present invention is：
One kind estimates deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method, comprises the following steps：
S1：24 hours typhoon location prediction values for estimating the N number of station needed for deviation method are collected, including acting quarter of giving the correct time is 30th, 24 hours predicted values before 24,18,12,6,0 hour, its forecast moment be before 6 hours, current time, 6,12,18,24 little Shi Hou, altogether 6 × N number of predicted value；
S2：Collect and estimate typhoon absolute fix needed for deviation method, including the absolute fix before 6 hours and current time Absolute fix；
S3：For each station, using five point estimations, according to the absolute fix before 6 hours, the actual measurement at current time Position, forecast moment are forecasting position, forecasting that forecast position, forecast moment that the moment is current time are 6 hours before 6 hours Forecast position afterwards, the possibility forecast departure after calculating 6 hours；
S4：For each station, according to the possibility forecast departure after 6 hours, correction predicted value after calculating 6 hours and The station weight；
S5：Using weighted average calculation, little according to the correction predicted value after each station 6 hours and the station weight calculation 6 When after ensemble forecast position；
S6：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the absolute fix at current time, the ensemble forecast position after 6 hours, forecast For current time, moment forecasts that position, forecast moment are that position, forecast moment are the forecast after 12 hours to forecasting after 6 hours Position, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 12 hours；
S7：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the ensemble forecast position after 6 hours, the ensemble forecast position after 12 hours Put, forecast the moment be forecast position after 6 hours, forecast moment be forecast position after 12 hours, forecast moment be 18 hours Forecast position afterwards, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 18 hours；
S8：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the ensemble forecast position after 12 hours, the ensemble forecast position after 18 hours Put, forecast the moment be forecast position after 12 hours, forecast moment be forecast position after 18 hours, forecast moment be 24 hours Forecast position afterwards, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 24 hours.
Further, the N number of station needed for deviation method, N >=3 are estimated in the collection in step S1.
Further, five point estimations are to inquire into the 6th point of unknown bits for being close to true value using 5 points of known locations Put.
Further, five point estimations, 5 points of required positions include 2 points of absolute fixs and 3 points of forecast positions；2 points Absolute fix include starting at 6 hours moment before position A points, and position B points for starting at the moment；3 points forecast position include pre- Give the correct time carve be start at 6 hours of the moment before C points, start at moment D points, start at 6 hours of the moment after E points, corresponding gives the correct time quarter Before starting at 30,24,18 hours of the moment；
Five point estimations are calculated may forecast departureMethod be：Using A points and the extended linear length and A, B point of B points Distance obtains the position that F ' puts, and obtains the position that E ' puts using the extended linear length and C, D point distance of C points and D points, and E ' points arrive F ' points Between vector for may forecast departureAccording to possible forecast departureCalculate and revise predicted valueMethod be
WhereinFor the position vector of i-th station correction predicted value, including longitude and latitude；For i-th station E point The position vector of predicted value, including longitude and latitude；K is empirical parameter.
Five point estimations calculate the station weight αiComputational methods be
Five point estimations, using each station correction predicted valueWith the station weight αiSet of computationsization forecasts positionMethod be
WhereinFor final ensemble forecast position；
Position is forecast in ensemble after five point estimations are calculated 6 hours every timeThen with the last B points for calculating For new A points, position is forecast with the last ensemble for calculatingFor new B points, pre- to calculate the ensemble behind new 6 hour Report positionBy that analogy, the ensemble forecast position of 6,12,18,24 hours is calculated
Further, the absolute fix in five point estimations can be replaced with ensemble forecast position.
Compared with prior art, the present invention has advantages below：
The invention discloses one kind estimates deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method, in the forecasting process of a typhoon, Existing field data, and the forecast data of the different forecast stations is made full use of, the forecast in 24 hours of typhoon position is improved Forecast precision.By to the actual measurement typhoon position before current time and 6 hours, and 6,12,18,24 hours each station futures Forecast typhoon position, calculates following 6,12,18, the 24 hours ensemble forecast position successively so that the ensemble forecast position Compared to each station forecast result closer to true value.The method can in 24 hours forecast precisions for improving typhoon forecast and Forecast stability.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is originally to estimate all data points required for deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast is calculated；
Fig. 2 is that five point estimations of single step calculate possible forecast departureSchematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is the substep figure for entirely estimating the calculating of deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast；
In accompanying drawing, the implication of labelling is as follows：【1】Absolute fix before 6 hours,【2】Current time absolute fix,【3】6 hours Front forecast position (corresponding quarter of giving the correct time is for before 30 hours),【4】(corresponding quarter of giving the correct time is little for 24 for current time forecast position When before),【5】Forecast position (corresponding quarter of giving the correct time is for before 18 hours) after 6 hours,【6】After 12 hours, forecast position is (corresponding Quarter of giving the correct time is acted for before 12 hours),【7】Forecast position (corresponding quarter of giving the correct time is for before 6 hours) after 18 hours,【8】After 24 hours Forecast position (corresponding quarter of giving the correct time is for current time),【9】Ensemble forecast position after 6 hours,【10】Gather after 12 hours Change forecast position,【11】Ensemble forecast position after 18 hours,【12】Ensemble forecast position after 24 hours.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is further described with reference to embodiment.
One kind estimates deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method, comprises the following steps：
S1：Collect and estimate N number of station needed for deviation method (preferred, 24 hours typhoon location prediction values of N >=3), bag Included the 24 hours predicted values that carves as before 30,24,18,12,6,0 hour that give the correct time, its forecast moment be before 6 hours, current time, 6th, after 12,18,24 hours, 6 × N number of predicted value altogether；
S2：Collect and estimate typhoon absolute fix needed for deviation method, including the absolute fix before 6 hours and current time Absolute fix；
S3：For each station, using five point estimations, according to the absolute fix before 6 hours, the actual measurement at current time Position, forecast moment are forecasting position, forecasting that forecast position, forecast moment that the moment is current time are 6 hours before 6 hours Forecast position afterwards, the possibility forecast departure after calculating 6 hours；
S4：For each station, according to the possibility forecast departure after 6 hours, correction predicted value after calculating 6 hours and The station weight；
S5：Using weighted average calculation, little according to the correction predicted value after each station 6 hours and the station weight calculation 6 When after ensemble forecast position；
S6：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the absolute fix at current time, the ensemble forecast position after 6 hours, forecast For current time, moment forecasts that position, forecast moment are that position, forecast moment are the forecast after 12 hours to forecasting after 6 hours Position, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 12 hours；
S7：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the ensemble forecast position after 6 hours, the ensemble forecast position after 12 hours Put, forecast the moment be forecast position after 6 hours, forecast moment be forecast position after 12 hours, forecast moment be 18 hours Forecast position afterwards, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 18 hours；
S8：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the ensemble forecast position after 12 hours, the ensemble forecast position after 18 hours Put, forecast the moment be forecast position after 12 hours, forecast moment be forecast position after 18 hours, forecast moment be 24 hours Forecast position afterwards, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 24 hours.
Five point estimations are to inquire into the 6th point of the unknown position for being close to true value using 5 points of known locations.
Five point estimations, 5 points of required positions include that 2 points of absolute fixs (can be forecast with ensemble by absolute fix Position replaces) and 3 points of forecast positions；2 points of absolute fixs (absolute fix can be replaced with ensemble forecast position) include starting at Position A points before 6 hours moment, and start at the position B points at moment；3 points of forecast positions include forecasting that the moment is to start at the moment 6 hours before C points, start at moment D points, start at 6 hours of the moment after E points, corresponding give the correct time carve be start at the moment 30, 24th, before 18 hours；
Five point estimations are calculated may forecast departureMethod be：Using A points and the extended linear length and A, B point of B points Distance obtains the position that F ' puts, and obtains the position that E ' puts using the extended linear length and C, D point distance of C points and D points, and E ' points arrive F ' points Between vector for may forecast departure
According to possible forecast departureCalculate and revise predicted valueMethod be
WhereinFor the position vector of i-th station correction predicted value, including longitude and latitude；For i-th station E point The position vector of predicted value, including longitude and latitude；K is empirical parameter.
Five point estimations calculate the station weight αiComputational methods be
Five point estimations, using each station correction predicted valueWith the station weight αiSet of computationsization forecasts positionMethod be
WhereinFor final ensemble forecast position；
Position is forecast in ensemble after five point estimations are calculated 6 hours every timeThen with the last B points for calculating For new A points, position is forecast with the last ensemble for calculatingFor new B points, pre- to calculate the ensemble behind new 6 hour Report positionBy that analogy, the ensemble forecast position of 6,12,18,24 hours is calculated
As Figure 1-3,1 actual measurement typhoon position and the forecast typhoon position (N at 6 moment at 2 moment, are collected first The individual station, preferred N >=3).The actual measurement typhoon position at 2 moment includes：【1】Absolute fix before 6 hours,【2】Current time reality Location is put；The forecast typhoon position at 6 moment includes：【3】Position was forecast before 6 hours,【4】Current time forecasts position,【5】6 Position is forecast after hour,【6】Position is forecast after 12 hours,【7】Position is forecast after 18 hours,【8】Position is forecast after 24 hours.
2nd, five point estimations are utilized, according to【1】Absolute fix before 6 hours,【2】Current time absolute fix,【3】6 hours Front forecast position,【4】Current time forecasts position,【5】Position is forecast after 6 hours, is calculated【9】Ensemble forecast position after 6 hours Put；
3rd, five point estimations are utilized, according to【2】Current time absolute fix,【9】Ensemble forecast position after 6 hours,【4】 Current time forecasts position,【5】Position is forecast after 6 hours,【6】Position is forecast after 12 hours, is calculated【10】Gather after 12 hours Change forecast position；
4th, five point estimations are utilized, according to【9】Ensemble forecast position after 6 hours,【10】Ensemble forecast after 12 hours Position,【5】Position is forecast after 6 hours,【6】Position is forecast after 12 hours,【7】Position is forecast after 18 hours, is calculated【11】18 is little When after ensemble forecast position；
5th, five point estimations are utilized, according to【10】Ensemble forecast position after 12 hours,【11】After 18 hours, ensemble is pre- Report position,【6】Position is forecast after 12 hours,【7】Position is forecast after 18 hours,【8】Position is forecast after 24 hours, is calculated【12】24 Ensemble forecast position after hour.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that：Ordinary skill people for the art For member, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. one kind estimates deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
S1：Collect 24 hours typhoon location prediction values for estimating N number of station needed for deviation method, including rise quarter of giving the correct time for 30,24, 18th, 24 hours predicted values before 12,6,0 hour, its forecast moment be 6 hours before, after current time, 6,12,18,24 hours, 6 × N number of predicted value altogether；
S2：The typhoon absolute fix needed for deviation method is estimated in collection, including the actual measurement at the absolute fix before 6 hours and current time Position；
S3：For each station, using five point estimations, according to the absolute fix before 6 hours, the actual measurement position at current time Put, forecast that the moment is forecasting position, forecasting that forecast position, forecast moment that the moment is current time are after 6 hours before 6 hours Forecast position, calculate 6 hours after possibility forecast departure；
S4：For each station, according to the possibility forecast departure after 6 hours, correction predicted value after calculating 6 hours and this Stand weight；
S5：Using weighted average calculation, according to the correction predicted value after each station 6 hours and the station weight calculation 6 hours after Ensemble forecast position；
S6：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the absolute fix at current time, the ensemble forecast position after 6 hours, forecast moment It forecast position after 6 hours, forecast moment is forecast position after 12 hours for the forecast position at current time, forecast moment to be Put, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 12 hours；
S7：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the ensemble forecast position after 6 hours, the ensemble forecast position after 12 hours, in advance Give the correct time and carve as the forecast position after 6 hours, forecast that the moment is that position, forecast moment are pre- after 18 hours to forecasting after 12 hours Report position, the ensemble forecast position after calculating 18 hours；
S8：Repeat S3 to S5 steps, using the ensemble forecast position after 12 hours, ensemble after 18 hours forecast position, The forecast moment be forecast position after 12 hours, forecast moment be forecast position after 18 hours, forecast moment be after 24 hours Forecast position, calculate 24 hours after ensemble forecast position.
2. according to claim 1 deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method is estimated, it is characterised in that：In step S1 Collection estimate N number of station needed for deviation method, N >=3.
3. according to claim 1 deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method is estimated, it is characterised in that：Five point estimation Method is to inquire into the 6th point of the unknown position for being close to true value using 5 points of known locations.
4. according to claim 1 deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method is estimated, it is characterised in that：Five point estimation Method, 5 points of required positions include 2 points of absolute fixs and 3 points of forecast positions；Before 2 points of absolute fixs include starting at 6 hours moment Position A points, and start at the position B points at moment；3 points of forecast positions include forecasting the moment be start at 6 hours of the moment before C points, Start at moment D points, start at 6 hours of the moment after E points, corresponding give the correct time carve be start at 30,24,18 hours of the moment before；
Five point estimations are calculated may forecast departureMethod be：Extended linear length and A, B point distance using A points and B points The position that F ' puts being obtained, the position that E ' puts being obtained using the extended linear length and C, D point distance of C points and D points, E ' points are between F ' points Vector for may forecast departure
According to possible forecast departureCalculate and revise predicted valueMethod be
WhereinFor the position vector of i-th station correction predicted value, including longitude and latitude；For i-th station E point forecast The position vector of value, including longitude and latitude；K is empirical parameter.
Five point estimations calculate the station weight αiComputational methods be
α i = 1 / | e → i | Σ i = 1 N ( 1 / | e → i | ) - - - ( 2 ) ;
Five point estimations, using each station correction predicted valueWith the station weight αiSet of computationsization forecasts position's Method is
WhereinFor final ensemble forecast position.
5. according to claim 4 deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method is estimated, it is characterised in that：Five point estimation Position is forecast in ensemble after method is calculated 6 hours every timeThen the B points for being calculated with the last time are new A points, in terms of the last time The ensemble forecast position of calculationFor new B points, position is forecast to calculate the ensemble behind new 6 hourBy that analogy, count Calculate the ensemble forecast position of 6,12,18,24 hours
6. according to claim 4 deviation method ensemble typhoon forecast method is estimated, it is characterised in that：Five point estimation Absolute fix in method can be replaced with ensemble forecast position.
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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
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CN108919384A (en) * 2018-03-26 2018-11-30 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院 It is a kind of based on the typhoon track DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM method for estimating deviation
CN116976227A (en) * 2023-09-22 2023-10-31 河海大学 Storm water increasing forecasting method and system based on LSTM machine learning

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US20090240352A1 (en) * 2008-03-18 2009-09-24 Powell Mark D Predicting tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kinetic energy according to the powell/reinhold scale
CN102156308A (en) * 2011-03-09 2011-08-17 南京恩瑞特实业有限公司 Method for discriminating typhoon path
CN104200082A (en) * 2014-08-22 2014-12-10 清华大学 Typhoon landing prediction method
CN104932035A (en) * 2015-05-26 2015-09-23 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院 Typhoon intensity prediction method and system

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US20090240352A1 (en) * 2008-03-18 2009-09-24 Powell Mark D Predicting tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kinetic energy according to the powell/reinhold scale
CN102156308A (en) * 2011-03-09 2011-08-17 南京恩瑞特实业有限公司 Method for discriminating typhoon path
CN104200082A (en) * 2014-08-22 2014-12-10 清华大学 Typhoon landing prediction method
CN104932035A (en) * 2015-05-26 2015-09-23 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院 Typhoon intensity prediction method and system

Cited By (3)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108919384A (en) * 2018-03-26 2018-11-30 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院 It is a kind of based on the typhoon track DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM method for estimating deviation
CN116976227A (en) * 2023-09-22 2023-10-31 河海大学 Storm water increasing forecasting method and system based on LSTM machine learning
CN116976227B (en) * 2023-09-22 2023-12-08 河海大学 Storm water increasing forecasting method and system based on LSTM machine learning

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