CN102063651A - Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition - Google Patents
Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition, belonging to the field of on-line operation and analysis of urban power grids. The urban power grid risk evaluation system comprises a power grid operation data acquisition module, a power grid data conversion modeling module, a risk evaluation module, a web server and a web rich client side application program, wherein the power grid operation data acquisition module is connected with the power grid data conversion modeling module and used as the data resource of the urban power grid risk evaluation system; the urban power grid risk evaluation module, the web server and the web rich client side application program finish processing classification and publishing results for the risk evaluation results. The urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition builds the on-line risk evaluation and calculation model of an urban power grid by collecting, screening and converting the on-line data of the power grid, analyzes the risk degree of the urban power grid on line and publishes a risk evaluation result and risk early warning information on line.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the operation of urban distribution network analysis, be specifically related to a kind of urban distribution network risk evaluating system based on the online acquisition data.
Background technology
The urban distribution network risk is in the time period of determining, because the uncertainty of loading in the urban distribution network and the uncertainty of equipment failure pattern, causes urban distribution network to cause damage and the size of loss occurrence probability.The probability nature of its behavior that has its source in of urban distribution network risk, the influence of the fault of equipment in the electrical network, load, outside nature and factor such as artificial all has uncertainty, and these factors may cause system to take place by the part until large-area power failure.The assessment of urban distribution network probability risk is by setting up the index of characterization system risk, possibility and severity of consequence that the identification failure event takes place, the probability attribute of aspects such as the behavior of reflection urban distribution network, load variations and element fault; Determine acceptable risk level of system and risk control measure.Methods of risk assessment is used for the Electric Power Network Planning field more at present, uses the long-time statistical data, analyzes than the power grid risk in the long duration (year), need not to obtain, uses the electrical network online data.
Along with the fast development of urban distribution network, electric network composition is increasingly sophisticated, and the electrical network inside and outside threatens the various risk factors of electric power netting safe running more and more, brings very big challenge to the operation of power networks management.At present, though the EMS system can carry out power grid security analysis and calculating, but the application model of its network analysis function is mainly still just carried out after receiving yardman's request, stresses research mode, lacks the function from motion tracking operation of power networks state, online discovery electric network security problem.In the operation of urban distribution network management, introduce the probability risk assessment, the probability attribute that can reflect aspects such as electric system behavior, load variations and element fault, and provide the risk level quantized value of urban distribution network, be the important supplement of operation of urban distribution network deterministic parsing method.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is methods of risk assessment is applied to the in-service monitoring and the early warning of operation of power networks, by collection, screening, conversion to the electrical network online data, set up the online risk assessment computation model of urban distribution network, analyze and calculate, point out whether electrical network satisfies safety standards in following a few hours or a couple of days; As not satisfying, then provide electrical network in the corresponding time period, depart from the possibility of safe operation state and the comprehensive measurement of departure degree, it is the operation risk degree of electrical network, and point out to cause the corresponding risk factors and the incident of power grid risk, analysis result shows in the mode of three-dimensional visualization the most at last, thereby improves the urban distribution network safety operation level, reduces loss of outage.Have very big society and economic worth for the safe operation that guarantees urban distribution network.
The present invention proposes a kind of urban distribution network risk evaluating system, comprise operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2), risk evaluation module (3), web server (4) and web rich client applications (5) based on the online acquisition data;
Described operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) and risk evaluation module (3) are installed in respectively on the mutual various computing machine that is connected by LAN (Local Area Network), or be installed on same the computing machine, be connected by the database server of LAN (Local Area Network) with the grid dispatching management system; Web server (4) is connected with the computing machine that operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) and risk evaluation module (3) have been installed by LAN (Local Area Network), web rich client applications (5) is installed in one to be had on the web browser computing machine, be connected with the web server by LAN (Local Area Network), described web rich client applications (5) is utilized the Flex of Adobe company technological development, operate on the web browser, possess the weblication of abundant pattern exhibition power.
The invention allows for a kind of appraisal procedure of using said system, may further comprise the steps:
(1) operation of power networks data acquisition module (1) reads electrical network basic equipment data, topological structure of electric data, load prediction data, operation history data and real-time running data by network from the database server of grid dispatching management system;
(2) electric network data conversion MBM (2) draws the folding condition of various switches in the electrical network according to the data that step 1 obtains, the annexation of circuit, and information such as the tap connection status of transformer, and then set up the model of the electrical network network structure and the method for operation;
(3) risk evaluation module (3) is carried out state estimation calculating to the current ruuning situation of electrical network;
(4) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated the ground state trend according to the state estimation result;
(5) risk evaluation module (3) according to the state estimation result calculate the previous day every 15 minutes historical trend;
(6) risk evaluation module (3) is used the Monte Carlo algorithm, judges the probability that various device breaks down according to the weather that may influence the grid equipment operation and other disaster risk data and historical data;
(7) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated N-k state trend according to the ground state trend;
(8) risk evaluation module (3) compares each time calculation of tidal current, and the probability that occurs, and calculates various risk assessment values;
(9) web server (4) utilizes result of calculation, forms the Risk Assessment Report web page;
(10) web rich client applications (5) obtains the assessment report page from the web server, and shows.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
(1) structure, pattern and the system of collection, screening, conversion and the modeling of the online risk assessment computational analysis of urban distribution network data have been set up;
(2) methods of risk assessment is applied to the analysis of urban distribution network online evaluation, realized methods of risk assessment from off-line to online, the application from the planning application to the operating analysis;
(3) design urban distribution network venture analysis result's data flow, set up the structural system of visual presentation risk.
Description of drawings
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing.
Fig. 1 is according to system construction synoptic diagram of the present invention, has shown the essential structure and the data stream of system.
Fig. 2 is according to power grid risk estimation flow synoptic diagram of the present invention, has shown the key step that how to draw risk evaluation result from the operation of power networks data.
Embodiment
The operation of power networks data that method of the present invention relates to are quite big, the electric power computational algorithm complexity of using, and most of algorithm all is common practise, need not to describe in detail, only simple example explanation below:
1) is example with the somewhere power distribution network, at first obtains static data: comprise network structure and network parameter, need obtain from the power network schedule automation database by data-interface; Obtain dynamic data then: comprise the online metric data of network, need obtain from the power network schedule automation database by data-interface equally;
2) carry out topological analysis on the basis of these data, topological analysis is according on off state network node/switch model (electrical model) to be converted into model/branch road model (computation model), and calculating for venture analysis provides the basis.
3) carry out load prediction, load prediction results is the important foundation parameter of risk assessment.The assessment period of the online risk assessment of urban distribution network comprises current period and following a couple of days, needs by short-term, ultra-short term method, sets up the load prediction curve in following a couple of days.For risk assessment than long duration, can handle by load data and set up a broad sense load level hierarchical table, characterize the uncertainty of load with corresponding distributed model.
4) select the forecast accident collection, comprise N-1 fault and predefined N-k fault,, can select different forecast accident collection at different analysis period and evaluating objects.The forecast accident analysis is according to the forecast accident collection of setting, and calculates by trend, analyzes under the different forecast accident states, and out-of-limit element (load out-of-limit, voltage is out-of-limit) takes place, and the out-of-limit degree of computing element.
5) carrying out risk indicator calculates, by adding up the probability of the failure state of sampling out in the Monte Carlo simulation, and the out-of-limit index that calculates of failure state, calculate each risk indicator, index comprises operation out-of-limit online risk indicator (OOPRI), loss load online risk indicator (LOPRI), the loss online risk indicator of electric weight (EOPRI), the online risk indicator of low-voltage (VOPRI).
To move out-of-limit online risk indicator (OOPRI) is example, move out-of-limit online risk indicator (OOPRI) and be used to indicate the operation of power networks parameter of urban distribution network in the assessment period, comprise transformer load, circuit trend, busbar voltage etc., surpass the probability of operation limit value.Operations staff and planning personnel can judge that system running state does not meet the possibility of the risk generation of operation constraint according to the size of OOPRI desired value.Computing formula is as follows:
Wherein: n is the number of the load pattern of prediction in the assessment period;
M is the number that forecast accident is concentrated forecast accident;
Pr (Cond
i) be the probability of the load pattern of prediction;
Pr (E
j| Cond
i) be the probability that forecast accident takes place under certain load pattern;
OSev (E
j, Cond
i) be the consequence evaluating, overload taking place here is 1, it is 0 that overload does not take place.
The calculation process of OOPRI is:
1. select a load pattern;
2. select a forecast accident collection;
3. trend is calculated, and out-of-limit notice tide optimization syndrome module takes place, and out-of-limit OSev (E does not take place
j, Cond
i) be 0;
4. optimize and proofread and correct trend, still out-of-limit OSev (E after the correction
j, Cond
i) be 1, this is not 0;
5. whether having selected the forecast accident collection, do not got back to 2, is next step;
6. whether having selected load pattern, do not got back to 1, is next step;
7. using formula calculates OOPRI.
Invention has been described according to specific exemplary embodiment above.It will be conspicuous carrying out suitable replacement to one skilled in the art or revise under not departing from the scope of the present invention.Exemplary embodiment only is illustrative, rather than to the restriction of scope of the present invention, scope of the present invention is by appended claim definition.
Claims (2)
1. urban distribution network risk evaluating system based on the online acquisition data is characterized in that:
Comprise operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2), risk evaluation module (3), web server (4) and web rich client applications (5);
Described operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) and risk evaluation module (3) are installed in respectively on the mutual various computing machine that is connected by LAN (Local Area Network), or be installed on same the computing machine, be connected by the database server of LAN (Local Area Network) with the grid dispatching management system; Web server (4) is connected with the computing machine that operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) and risk evaluation module (3) have been installed by LAN (Local Area Network), web rich client applications (5) is installed in one to be had on the web browser computing machine, be connected with the web server by LAN (Local Area Network), described web rich client applications (5) is utilized the Flex of Adobe company technological development, operate on the web browser, possess the weblication of abundant pattern exhibition power.
2. appraisal procedure of using the described system of claim 1 is characterized in that may further comprise the steps:
(1) operation of power networks data acquisition module (1) reads electrical network basic equipment data, topological structure of electric data, load prediction data, operation history data and real-time running data by network from the database server of grid dispatching management system;
(2) electric network data conversion MBM (2) draws the folding condition of various switches in the electrical network according to the data that step 1 obtains, the annexation of circuit, and information such as the tap connection status of transformer, and then set up the model of the electrical network network structure and the method for operation;
(3) risk evaluation module (3) is carried out state estimation calculating to the current ruuning situation of electrical network;
(4) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated the ground state trend according to the state estimation result;
(5) risk evaluation module (3) according to the state estimation result calculate the previous day every 15 minutes historical trend;
(6) risk evaluation module (3) is used the Monte Carlo algorithm, judges the probability that various device breaks down according to the weather that may influence the grid equipment operation and other disaster risk data and historical data;
(7) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated N-k state trend according to the ground state trend;
(8) risk evaluation module (3) compares each time calculation of tidal current, and the probability that occurs, and calculates various risk assessment values;
(9) web server (4) utilizes result of calculation, forms the Risk Assessment Report web page;
(10) web rich client applications (5) obtains the assessment report page from the web server, and shows.
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| CN102289582A (en) * | 2011-08-10 | 2011-12-21 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for recognizing risk state of power distribution network |
| CN102290811A (en) * | 2011-08-10 | 2011-12-21 | 上海市电力公司 | Method for evaluating accident prearranged plan and running way |
| CN102509018A (en) * | 2011-11-11 | 2012-06-20 | 山东电力研究院 | System and method for evaluating importance of power system facilities |
| CN102663537A (en) * | 2012-03-13 | 2012-09-12 | 凯里供电局 | Maintenance system of power equipment based on risk assessment |
| CN102663522A (en) * | 2012-04-24 | 2012-09-12 | 湖南省电力公司调度通信局 | On-line risk evaluation method of power grid |
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