CN105117839B - A kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure - Google Patents

A kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure Download PDF

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CN105117839B
CN105117839B CN201510514677.1A CN201510514677A CN105117839B CN 105117839 B CN105117839 B CN 105117839B CN 201510514677 A CN201510514677 A CN 201510514677A CN 105117839 B CN105117839 B CN 105117839B
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mrow
cascading failure
failure
power system
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CN105117839A (en
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田春筝
周玉龙
王圆圆
王建学
王磊
杨红旗
毛玉宾
王世谦
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Xian Jiaotong University
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Xian Jiaotong University
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure, cascading failure model is incorporated into the state analysis of risk assessment, consider and originate fault progression as the influence after cascading failure to power network, suit large-scale blackout dynamic, the chain rule of development, the weak link for influenceing large-scale blackout can be recognized by means of cascading failure process analysis procedure analysis, the element to be played a crucial role in large-scale blackout really is filtered out, the weak link result drawn is more comprehensively accurate, has more reference value；The maturation theory of the invention effectively inherited based on Monte Carlo Analogue Method risk assessment, without carrying out the derivation of complex relationship formula, without enumerating for failure is carried out, when especially system is larger, advantage of the invention will be apparent from.

Description

A kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of discrimination method, and in particular to a kind of power system weak link identification based on cascading failure Method.
Background technology
In recent years in world wide there occurs a lot of large-scale blackouts, such as 2003 North America " 8.14 " have a power failure on a large scale, 2011 The U.S. " 9.8 " has a power failure on a large scale, India in 2012 has a power failure on a large scale, and causes great economic loss and social influence, causes various countries To the extensive concern of electric power netting safe running problem.Researching and analysing for accident is shown, large-scale blackout is by cascading failure mostly Caused by.With the extensive interconnection of China's power network and the addition of Large Copacity power supply, power network originates failure and causes the big rule of trend Mould shifts and triggers the possibility of cascading failure to increase, the increase of operation of power networks potential risk, programming dispatching and peace to power network Full reliability service brings certain challenge so that identification influences the weak link that cascading failure occurs and seems very necessary.
The weak link identification method for being currently based on risk analysis is broadly divided into two classes, and one kind is analytic method, and one kind is mould Plan method.There are some defects in this two classes method, it is impossible to effectively the weak link for influenceing large-scale blackout is recognized.This A little defects are mainly reflected in：
(1) simulation and analytic method are only assessed originating failure, only consider to originate the influence of failure, without consider by In the chain expansion process of the accident caused by failure that originates, evaluation process is static, and the large-scale blackout of current extensive concern It is dynamic, chain, the weak link of fault spread is influenceed in power network can just embody only during cascading failure, Conventional method easily causes the imperfect and inaccurate of assessment result；
(2) analytic method, such as Sensitivity Analysis Method and reliability tracing, the mathematical analysis expression formula for being based on complexity push away The contribution for drawing each element to system risk is led, calculating process is comparatively laborious, and this method is special in the illiteracy being widely used at present Under the analogy method of Carlow there is instability problem in result, so scene can only be assessed by enumerating failure generation, which increase big The workload of electrical network weak link identification.
The content of the invention
In order to overcome the above-mentioned deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of power system weakness ring based on cascading failure Discrimination method is saved, the influence for originating failure and cascading failure to electric power netting safe running has been considered, the factor is participated in by risk Complete the identification of power system weak link.
In order to realize foregoing invention purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that：
The present invention provides a kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure, and the discrimination method includes Following steps：
Step 1：Obtain basic technical data, operation bound data and reliability data；
Step 2：Generate N number of scene to be assessed；
Step 3：Scene to be assessed is assessed；
Step 4：Factor Identification of Power System weak link is participated in by the risk of each branch road.
In step 1, the basic technical data includes node data, transmission line of electricity data, transformer data, load data And alternator data；
The operation bound data includes generator output upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value；
The reliability data includes generator forced outage rate, transmission line of electricity forced outage rate and transformer forced outage Rate.
The node data includes node reference voltage；
Transmission line of electricity data include transmission line of electricity impedance and transmission line of electricity admittance；
Transformer data include transformer impedance, transformer admittance and transformer voltage ratio；
Load data includes load active power and reactive load power；
Alternator data is currently contributed including generator.
In step 2, N number of scene to be assessed is generated using Monte Carlo simulation approach, specifically includes following steps：
Step 2-1：For element j, extract between (0,1) and obey equally distributed random number Uj；
Step 2-2：Determine element j running status Sj, have：
Wherein, FORjRepresent element j forced outage rate；SjWhen=1, show element j normal operations；SjWhen=0, show Element j hinders for some reason to be exited；
Step 2-3：The running status S of power system is determined, is had：
S={ S1,S2,…,Sj,…,Sn}
Wherein, n represents component population in power system, j=1,2 ..., n；
Step 2-4：Repeat step 2-1 to 2-3, you can the running status of N number of power system is obtained, as field to be assessed Scape.
The element includes generator, transmission line of electricity and the transformer in power system.
In the step 3, N number of scene to be assessed is assessed successively using cascading failure model, specifically include with Lower step：
Step 3-1：It is 0 to set cascading failure exponent number；
Step 3-2：The active power output of generator and the active power of load are adjusted, and records the cutting load of each load bus Amount；
Step 3-3：DC power flow calculating is carried out to current scene, the effective power flow of each transmission line of electricity in record electricity system As a result；
Step 3-4：Overloaded if there is transmission line of electricity effective power flow, then count each transmission line of electricity Overflow RateHT, find overload The maximum transmission line of electricity of rate is simultaneously cut off, while cascading failure exponent number adds 1, after updating Load flow calculation data, performs step 3- 5；Overloaded if there is no transmission line of electricity effective power flow, then perform step 3-6；
Step 3-5：Judge whether cascading failure exponent number reaches the maximum of setting, if then performing step 3-6, otherwise return It is back to step 3-2；
Step 3-6：The cutting load amount of each load bus, negative to cutting for each load bus under the cumulative every rank failure of cascading failure The summation of lotus amount can obtain total cutting load amount of load bus.
In the step 3-2, if PgRepresent generator g active power output, PdLoad d active power is represented, is specifically had：
Step 3-2-1：After cascading failure occurs, if Σ Pg＞ Σ Pd, then reducing all generators in power system has Work(is contributed, until Σ Pg≤ΣPdOr certain generator reaches minimum technology output；If Σ Pg＜ Σ Pd, then power train is increased The active power output of all generators in system, until Σ Pg≥ΣPdOr certain generated power is contributed and reaches rated value；
Step 3-2-2：If still suffer from Σ Pg＞ Σ Pd, then currently contributed according to generator it is ascending cut machine operation, Until meeting Σ Pg=Σ Pd；
Step 3-2-3：If still suffer from Σ Pg＜ Σ Pd, then cutting load operation is carried out according to load active power is ascending, Until meeting Σ Pg=Σ Pd。
The step 4 specifically includes following steps：
Step 4-1：The probability of happening of each cascading failure is calculated, is had：
Wherein, P (Ci) represent ith cascading failure probability of happening；p(Ci1) represent ith cascading failure in the 1st rank Failure, that is, originate probability of malfunction；M represents total exponent number of each cascading failure；sikRepresent kth rank failure in ith cascading failure Failure correction factor, it is expressed as：
Wherein, FkRepresent the removed transmission line of electricity Overflow RateHT of kth rank cascading failure, FmRepresent the in ith cascading failure K ranks failure overloads branch road Overflow RateHT, okRepresent the overload branch road collection of kth rank failure in ith cascading failure；
Step 4-2：The risk participation value of each branch road is calculated, is had：
Wherein, oiRepresent that ith cascading failure is removed branch road collection, RbRepresent branch road b risk participation value, LiRepresent i-th The cutting load amount of secondary cascading failure；
Step 4-3：The risk indicator of power system is calculated, is had：
Wherein, R represents the risk indicator of power system；
Step 4-4：The risk for calculating each branch road participates in the factor, has：
Ib=Rb/R
Wherein, IbRepresent that branch road b risk participates in the factor；
Step 4-5：The risk participation factor to each branch road is ranked up, and the risk participation factor is bigger, shows the branch road pair Widening one's influence for cascading failure is bigger, belongs to the weak link of power system.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are：
Cascading failure model is incorporated into the state analysis of risk assessment by the present invention, it is contemplated that originating fault progression turns into To the influence of power network after cascading failure, suit large-scale blackout dynamic, the chain rule of development, can be by means of cascading failure mistake Journey analysis identification influences the weak link of large-scale blackout, really filters out the element to be played a crucial role in large-scale blackout, The weak link result drawn is more comprehensively accurate, has more reference value；
Compared with the analytic methods such as Sensitivity Analysis Method, reliability back tracking method, the present invention is effectively inherited based on Monte Carlo The maturation of simulation risk assessment is theoretical, without carrying out the derivation of complex relationship formula, without enumerating for failure is carried out, especially When system is larger, advantage of the invention will be apparent from.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the power system weak link identification method flow chart based on cascading failure in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is that scene flow chart to be assessed is assessed in the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
The present invention provides a kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure, such as Fig. 1, the identification side Method comprises the following steps：
Step 1：Obtain basic technical data, operation bound data and reliability data；
Step 2：Generate N number of scene to be assessed；
Step 3：Scene to be assessed is assessed；
Step 4：Factor Identification of Power System weak link is participated in by the risk of each branch road.
In step 1, the basic technical data includes node data, transmission line of electricity data, transformer data, load data And alternator data；
The operation bound data includes generator output upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value；
The reliability data includes generator forced outage rate, transmission line of electricity forced outage rate and transformer forced outage Rate.
The node data includes node reference voltage；
Transmission line of electricity data include transmission line of electricity impedance and transmission line of electricity admittance；
Transformer data include transformer impedance, transformer admittance and transformer voltage ratio；
Load data includes load active power and reactive load power；
Alternator data is currently contributed including generator.
In step 2, N number of scene to be assessed is generated using Monte Carlo simulation approach, specifically includes following steps：
Step 2-1：For element j, extract between (0,1) and obey equally distributed random number Uj；
Step 2-2：Determine element j running status Sj, have：
Wherein, FORjRepresent element j forced outage rate；SjWhen=1, show element j normal operations；SjWhen=0, show Element j hinders for some reason to be exited；
Step 2-3：The running status S of power system is determined, is had：
S={ S1,S2,…,Sj,…,Sn}
Wherein, n represents component population in power system, j=1,2 ..., n；
Step 2-4：Repeat step 2-1 to 2-3, you can the running status of N number of power system is obtained, as field to be assessed Scape.
The element includes generator, transmission line of electricity and the transformer in power system.
Such as Fig. 2, in the step 3, N number of scene to be assessed is assessed successively using cascading failure model, specifically Comprise the following steps：
Step 3-1：It is 0 to set cascading failure exponent number；
Step 3-2：The active power output of generator and the active power of load are adjusted, and records the cutting load of each load bus Amount；
Step 3-3：DC power flow calculating is carried out to current scene, the effective power flow of each transmission line of electricity in record electricity system As a result；
Step 3-4：Overloaded if there is transmission line of electricity effective power flow, then count each transmission line of electricity Overflow RateHT, find overload The maximum transmission line of electricity of rate is simultaneously cut off, while cascading failure exponent number adds 1, after updating Load flow calculation data, performs step 3- 5；Overloaded if there is no transmission line of electricity effective power flow, then perform step 3-6；
Step 3-5：Judge whether cascading failure exponent number reaches the maximum of setting, if then performing step 3-6, otherwise return It is back to step 3-2；
Step 3-6：The cutting load amount of each load bus, negative to cutting for each load bus under the cumulative every rank failure of cascading failure The summation of lotus amount can obtain total cutting load amount of load bus.
In the step 3-2, if PgRepresent generator g active power output, PdLoad d active power is represented, is specifically had：
Step 3-2-1：After cascading failure occurs, if Σ Pg＞ Σ Pd, then reducing all generators in power system has Work(is contributed, until Σ Pg≤ΣPdOr certain generator reaches minimum technology output；If Σ Pg＜ Σ Pd, then power train is increased The active power output of all generators in system, until Σ Pg≥ΣPdOr certain generated power is contributed and reaches rated value；
Step 3-2-2：If still suffer from Σ Pg＞ Σ Pd, then currently contributed according to generator it is ascending cut machine operation, Until meeting Σ Pg=Σ Pd；
Step 3-2-3：If still suffer from Σ Pg＜ Σ Pd, then cutting load operation is carried out according to load active power is ascending, Until meeting Σ Pg=Σ Pd。
The step 4 specifically includes following steps：
Step 4-1：The probability of happening of each cascading failure is calculated, is had：
Wherein, P (Ci) represent ith cascading failure probability of happening；p(Ci1) represent ith cascading failure in the 1st rank Failure, that is, originate probability of malfunction；M represents total exponent number of each cascading failure；sikRepresent kth rank failure in ith cascading failure Failure correction factor, it is expressed as：
Wherein, FkRepresent the removed transmission line of electricity Overflow RateHT of kth rank cascading failure, FmRepresent the in ith cascading failure K ranks failure overloads branch road Overflow RateHT, okRepresent the overload branch road collection of kth rank failure in ith cascading failure；
Step 4-2：The risk participation value of each branch road is calculated, is had：
Wherein, oiRepresent that ith cascading failure is removed branch road collection, RbRepresent branch road b risk participation value, LiRepresent i-th The cutting load amount of secondary cascading failure；
Step 4-3：The risk indicator of power system is calculated, is had：
Wherein, R represents the risk indicator of power system；
Step 4-4：The risk for calculating each branch road participates in the factor, has：
Ib=Rb/R
Wherein, IbRepresent that branch road b risk participates in the factor；
Step 4-5：The risk participation factor to each branch road is ranked up, and the risk participation factor is bigger, shows the branch road pair Widening one's influence for cascading failure is bigger, belongs to the weak link of power system.
Finally it should be noted that：The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, institute The those of ordinary skill in category field with reference to above-described embodiment still can to the present invention embodiment modify or Equivalent substitution, these are applying for this pending hair without departing from any modification of spirit and scope of the invention or equivalent substitution Within bright claims.

Claims (7)

  1. A kind of 1. power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：The discrimination method includes Following steps：
    Step 1：Obtain basic technical data, operation bound data and reliability data；
    Step 2：Generate N number of scene to be assessed；
    Step 3：Scene to be assessed is assessed；
    Step 4：Factor Identification of Power System weak link is participated in by the risk of each branch road；
    N number of scene to be assessed is generated using Monte Carlo simulation approach, specifically includes following steps：
    Step 2-1：For element j, extract between (0,1) and obey equally distributed random number Uj；
    Step 2-2：Determine element j running status Sj, have：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>S</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfenced open = "{" close = ""> <mtable> <mtr> <mtd> <mn>1</mn> </mtd> <mtd> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>&amp;GreaterEqual;</mo> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;GreaterEqual;</mo> <msub> <mi>FOR</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd> <mn>0</mn> </mtd> <mtd> <mrow> <msub> <mi>FOR</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <msub> <mi>U</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;GreaterEqual;</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> </mtable> </mfenced> </mrow>
    Wherein, FORjRepresent element j forced outage rate；SjWhen=1, show element j normal operations；SjWhen=0, show element j Barrier exits for some reason；
    Step 2-3：The running status S of power system is determined, is had：
    S={ S1,S2,…,Sj,…,Sn}
    Wherein, n represents component population in power system, j=1,2 ..., n；
    Step 2-4：Repeat step 2-1 to 2-3, you can the running status of N number of power system is obtained, as scene to be assessed.
  2. 2. the power system weak link identification method according to claim 1 based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：Step In rapid 1, the basic technical data includes node data, transmission line of electricity data, transformer data, load data and generator number According to；
    The operation bound data includes generator output upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value；
    The reliability data includes generator forced outage rate, transmission line of electricity forced outage rate and transformer forced outage rate.
  3. 3. the power system weak link identification method according to claim 2 based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：Institute Stating node data includes node reference voltage；
    Transmission line of electricity data include transmission line of electricity impedance and transmission line of electricity admittance；
    Transformer data include transformer impedance, transformer admittance and transformer voltage ratio；
    Load data includes load active power and reactive load power；
    Alternator data is currently contributed including generator.
  4. 4. the power system weak link identification method according to claim 1 based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：Institute Stating element includes generator, transmission line of electricity and the transformer in power system.
  5. 5. the power system weak link identification method according to claim 1 based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：Institute State in step 3, N number of scene to be assessed is assessed successively using cascading failure model, specifically includes following steps：
    Step 3-1：It is 0 to set cascading failure exponent number；
    Step 3-2：The active power output of generator and the active power of load are adjusted, and records the cutting load amount of each load bus；
    Step 3-3：DC power flow calculating is carried out to current scene, the effective power flow knot of each transmission line of electricity in record electricity system Fruit；
    Step 3-4：Overloaded if there is transmission line of electricity effective power flow, then count each transmission line of electricity Overflow RateHT, find Overflow RateHT most Big transmission line of electricity is simultaneously cut off, while cascading failure exponent number adds 1, after updating Load flow calculation data, performs step 3-5；Such as Fruit is overloaded in the absence of transmission line of electricity effective power flow, then performs step 3-6；
    Step 3-5：Judge whether cascading failure exponent number reaches the maximum of setting, if then performing step 3-6, be otherwise back to Step 3-2；
    Step 3-6：The cutting load amount of each load bus under the cumulative every rank failure of cascading failure, to the cutting load amount of each load bus Summation can obtain total cutting load amount of load bus.
  6. 6. the power system weak link identification method according to claim 5 based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：Institute State in step 3-2, if PgRepresent generator g active power output, PdLoad d active power is represented, is specifically had：
    Step 3-2-1：After cascading failure occurs, if ∑ Pg＞ ∑s Pd, then reduce power system in all generators it is active go out Power, until ∑ Pg≤∑PdOr certain generator reaches minimum technology output；If ∑ Pg＜ ∑s Pd, then increase in power system The active power output of all generators, until ∑ Pg≥∑PdOr certain generated power is contributed and reaches rated value；
    Step 3-2-2：If still suffer from ∑ Pg＞ ∑s Pd, then currently contributed according to generator it is ascending cut machine operation, until Meet ∑ Pg=∑ Pd；
    Step 3-2-3：If still suffer from ∑ Pg＜ ∑s Pd, then cutting load operation is carried out according to load active power is ascending, until Meet ∑ Pg=∑ Pd。
  7. 7. the power system weak link identification method according to claim 1 based on cascading failure, it is characterised in that：Institute State step 4 and specifically include following steps：
    Step 4-1：The probability of happening of each cascading failure is calculated, is had：
    <mrow> <mi>P</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Pi;</mo> <mrow> <mi>k</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>M</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>s</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow>
    Wherein, P (Ci) represent ith cascading failure probability of happening；p(Ci1) represent that the 1st rank in ith cascading failure is former Barrier, that is, originate probability of malfunction；M represents total exponent number of each cascading failure；sikRepresent kth rank failure in ith cascading failure Failure correction factor, it is expressed as：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>s</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <msub> <mi>F</mi> <mi>k</mi> </msub> <mrow> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>m</mi> <mo>&amp;Element;</mo> <msub> <mi>O</mi> <mi>k</mi> </msub> </mrow> </munder> <msub> <mi>F</mi> <mi>m</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow>
    Wherein, FkRepresent the removed transmission line of electricity Overflow RateHT of kth rank cascading failure, FmRepresent kth rank in ith cascading failure Failure overloads branch road Overflow RateHT, okRepresent the overload branch road collection of kth rank failure in ith cascading failure；
    Step 4-2：The risk participation value of each branch road is calculated, is had：
    <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mi>b</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>b</mi> <mo>&amp;Element;</mo> <msub> <mi>o</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </munder> <mi>P</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>&amp;times;</mo> <msub> <mi>L</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    Wherein, oiRepresent that ith cascading failure is removed branch road collection, RbRepresent branch road b risk participation value, LiRepresent that ith connects Lock the cutting load amount of failure；
    Step 4-3：The risk indicator of power system is calculated, is had：
    <mrow> <mi>R</mi> <mo>=</mo> <munder> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mi>i</mi> </munder> <mi>P</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>&amp;times;</mo> <msub> <mi>L</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow>
    Wherein, R represents the risk indicator of power system；
    Step 4-4：The risk for calculating each branch road participates in the factor, has：
    Ib=Rb/R
    Wherein, IbRepresent that branch road b risk participates in the factor；
    Step 4-5：The risk participation factor to each branch road is ranked up, and the risk participation factor is bigger, shows the branch road to chain Widening one's influence for failure is bigger, belongs to the weak link of power system.
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