CN102289582A - Method for recognizing risk state of power distribution network - Google Patents

Method for recognizing risk state of power distribution network Download PDF

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Publication number
CN102289582A
CN102289582A CN2011102282013A CN201110228201A CN102289582A CN 102289582 A CN102289582 A CN 102289582A CN 2011102282013 A CN2011102282013 A CN 2011102282013A CN 201110228201 A CN201110228201 A CN 201110228201A CN 102289582 A CN102289582 A CN 102289582A
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risk
index
status
distribution network
power distribution
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CN2011102282013A
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Chinese (zh)
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CN102289582B (en
Inventor
盛万兴
宋晓辉
张瑜
孟晓丽
李建芳
李雅洁
贾东梨
仉天舒
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中国电力科学研究院
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for recognizing a risk state of a power distribution network. The method is implemented by a serial computing method and a parallel computing method. In the serial computing method, risk state continuous recognition and tracking are performed after the risk state is recognized; in the parallel computing method, risk state continuous recognition and tracking and recognition of risk states of a power grid in various states and in each stage are performed at the same time; the serial computing method and the parallel computing method are different design ideas in the full power distribution network risk state recognition process, and the recognition results of the serial computing method and the parallel computing method are the same. By the method, judgment and evaluation of a risk index computing result are realized by adopting a design of a rule base, a knowledge base, a professional base and a risk base and online generation thereof, so that the risk state of the current power distribution network can be determined; due to the design of the rule base, the knowledge base, the professional base, a single and independent risk index for judgment is avoided and the judgment, the recognition and the evaluation of the risk state of the power distribution network are realized by adopting a comprehensive risk index.

Description

A kind of power distribution network risk status discrimination method

Technical field

The invention belongs to distribution system analysis and control technology field, specifically relate to a kind of power distribution network risk status discrimination method.

Background technology

Sustainable growth along with economy, society is in the turning point of a key to the demand of electric power, and following power distribution network scale will be huge day by day, and structure is also with increasingly sophisticated, power distribution network develop rapidly obtain enormous benefits in, also have to bearing bigger potential risk.Especially along with the access of distributed power source in the distribution system, people unmanageable uncertain factor and the influence of electrical network more become complicated, make the planning of power distribution network and operation all be faced with great challenge.

The risk of power distribution network existence in service comprises the risk that the chronicity that causes owing to reasons such as electrical network layout, electrical network equipment, meteorological conditions exists, and also comprises owing to being about to take place or taken place accident, the long-term accumulation risk that reason such as infringement faces electrical network that acquires a certain degree.Therefore, the accurate risk status of identification electrical network and risk status of living in carried out continuous identification and tracking, be that the dispatching of power netwoks personnel understand the primary problem that solves of power distribution network operation risk situation, be that the dispatching of power netwoks personnel monitor requisite important step to the risk change information of each subregion of the whole network, and for how tackling risk in the traffic control, making reasonable prevention and control decision-making reference frame is provided.

At present, the method of availability risk assessment is not enough to satisfy the power distribution network operation, analyze with control in accurate understanding and evaluation to risk status, and availability risk evaluation studies achievement be not enough to support power distribution network self-healing control in to the accurate identification and the tracking of power distribution network risk status.

Summary of the invention

At the requirement of power distribution network self-healing control to the risk status identification, the present invention proposes a kind of power distribution network risk status discrimination method, this method has been set forth and has been adopted serial computing method and parallel calculating method to carry out power distribution network risk status identification each state of each stage of electrical network under and continuous identification of power distribution network risk status and tracking under the risk status, and the judged result of two kinds of methods all can provide foundation for the accurate identification of the power grid risk state of power distribution network self-healing in controlling.

The objective of the invention is to adopt following technical proposals to realize:

A kind of power distribution network risk status discrimination method, its improvements are that described power distribution network risk status discrimination method comprises serial computing method and parallel calculating method; Described serial computing method and parallel calculating method all comprise two continuous processes: first process is that power distribution network moves in each state of each stage, need carry out the identification of power distribution network risk status in real time, with the risk level of predicting or the quantitative evaluation power distribution network faces; Second process is after power distribution network is in the risk status or first process judges power distribution network and enter risk status, carry out continuous identification of power distribution network risk and tracking in real time, follow the tracks of the development and change situation of former risk on the one hand, whether identification has other risk to take place on the other hand;

The development and change situation of described former risk includes but not limited to disappearance, expansion or the deterioration of former risk.

A kind of optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: described serial computing method comprises the steps:

(1) power distribution network is moved each state of each stage and carry out the risk status identification;

(2) after described power distribution network enters risk status, carry out the identification of risk source and risk type immediately; The identification of carrying out risk source and risk type under the described risk status is meant carries out searching and the judgement of location and risk type of risk source;

(3) after described power distribution network enters risk status, carry out continuous identification of described power distribution network risk status and tracking.

Second optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: step (1) is described to be moved each state of each stage to power distribution network and carries out the risk status identification and comprise the steps:

(1-1) carrying out risk indicator according to historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors, information of forecasting and video monitoring information calculates;

(1-2) adopt index result of calculation, the basis for estimation of binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the definition of risk storehouse judges whether described power distribution network is in risk status;

(1-3) if judge that described power distribution network is in risk status, then continue step (3) and carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking, and continue step (2) simultaneously and carry out the identification of risk source and risk type, then carry out the generation of risk-aversion controlling schemes, carry out described risk-aversion controlling schemes at last;

(1-4), then judged whether index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation if judge that electrical network is not in risk status; Described index comprises electric index and alarm index;

A, if electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step (1-1) is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

B, if the alarm index exceeding standard is arranged, then add up the described index exceeding standard time, and step (1-1) is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

C, if electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the described index exceeding standard time, and step (1-1) is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

D, if electric index and alarm index all do not have and exceed standard, then return step (1-1) and carry out risk indicator again and calculate.

The 3rd optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: step (3) is described carries out the continuous identification of described power distribution network risk status and tracking comprises the steps:

(3-1) according to historical information, the real-time multi-source information and the information of forecasting that monitor, described power distribution network operation conditions is proceeded monitoring, carry out risk indicator and calculate;

(3-2) the index exceeding standard time accumulated result of employing index result of calculation and risk status identification, the basis for estimation that defines in binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse judges whether described power distribution network is in risk status;

(3-3) be not in risk status, then stop the generation of prevention and control scheme under the former risk status of former risk status and the execution of described prevention and control scheme, return step (1-4) proceed the to exceed standard judgement of index simultaneously if judge described power distribution network; Be in risk status if judge described power distribution network, then carry out the identification of risk source and risk type once more, and the identification result in identification result and the step (2) is compared, judge formerly riskyly whether exist and whether new risk appearance arranged;

(3-4),, and do not have the appearance of new risk, then continue a series of processes under the former risk status, and enter step (3-7) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard if former risk exists through the relatively judgement of risk source and risk type identification result; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of former risk;

(3-5) if former risk disappears, new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, stops a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step (3-7) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of new risk;

(3-6) if former risk exists, and new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, continues a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step (3-7) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard other index the index of new risk and former risk;

(3-7) judged whether other index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation, described other index comprises other electric index and other alarm index;

A, if other electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

B, if other alarm index exceeding standard is arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

C, if other electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

D, if electric index and alarm index all do not have and exceed standard, then return step (3-1) and carry out risk indicator again and calculate.

The 4th optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: described parallel calculating method comprises:

<1〉power distribution network is moved each state of each stage and carry out the risk status identification;

<2〉after described power distribution network enters risk status, carry out the identification of risk source and risk type immediately; The described identification of carrying out risk source and risk type is meant carries out searching and the judgement of location and risk type of risk source; Or

<3〉if described power distribution network previous moment state is a risk status, then carry out continuous identification of power distribution network risk status and tracking.

The 5th optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: step<1〉describedly power distribution network is moved each state of each stage carry out the risk status identification and comprise the steps:

<1-1〉according to historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors, information of forecasting and video monitoring information, carry out risk indicator and calculate;

<1-2〉adopt index result of calculation, the basis for estimation of binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the definition of risk storehouse judges whether electrical network is in risk status; If judge that described power distribution network is not in risk status, then judged whether index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation; Described index comprises electric index and alarm index;

I. if electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step<1-1 is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

II. if the alarm index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step<1-1 is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

III. if electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step<1-1 is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

IV. if electric index and alarm index all do not have and exceed standard, then return step<1-1〉carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

<1-3〉if judge that electrical network is in risk status, need continue then to judge whether the previous moment state is risk status;

1. if the previous moment state is not a risk status, then return step<1-1〉proceed the calculating of risk indicator, enter step<2 simultaneously〉carry out the identification of risk source and risk type;

2. if the previous moment state is a risk status, then adopt described step<2〉the risk source that obtains and the result of risk type identification, enter step<3〉describedly carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking.

The 6th optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: step<3〉describedly carry out the continuous identification of power distribution network risk status and tracking comprises the steps:

<3-1〉the current time risk status carried out the identification and the judgement of risk source and risk type, and with described step<2 the previous moment risk source and the risk type judged result that obtain compare, judge former risky whether the existence, whether have new risk to occur;

<3-2〉through the relatively judgement of current time and previous moment risk source and risk type identification result, if former risk exists, and do not have the appearance of new risk, then continue a series of processes under the former risk status, and enter step<1-4 judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of former risk;

<3-3〉if former risk disappears, new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, stops a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step<1-4〉judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of new risk;

<3-4〉if former risk exists, and new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, continues a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step<1-4〉judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard other index the index of new risk and former risk.

The 7th optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: at described step<1-4〉back carries out following operation: at step<1-2〉carry out after index calculates and judge decision-making, consider that current power distribution network is a risk status, directly enters step<1-3〉judgement of the index that exceeds standard:

If learn that according to the decision-making judged result current power distribution network is not a risk status, then enters step<1-3〉carry out the judgement and the accumulative total of index exceeding standard duration of index exceeding standard;

If learn that according to the decision-making judged result current electrical network is a risk status, then directly enter step<1-3〉carry out the continuation accumulative total of former index exceeding standard duration and judged whether other index exceeding standards and the accumulative total index exceeding standard duration, enter step<1-4 simultaneously〉carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking.

The 8th optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: described state of electric distribution network comprises normal condition, optimization state, risk status, the emergency circumstance and returns to form;

Described normal condition, be meant that electrical network moves by the predefined method of operation, all users except that scheduled outage are kept continued power, every, various operating index are all at preset range, according to the operation of this state, can not cause or come power grid risk with low probability band;

Described risk status, be meant under the method for operation of setting in advance, under the later service condition of current operation of power networks conditioned disjunction current point in time, a certain or two above operating index of electrical network have exceeded maybe will exceed preset range, have big possibility to cause the operation of power networks target component to worsen, take place certain or multiple power grid accident; Though or risk do not appear in electrical network, foregone conclusion spare, service condition occur, the operation of power networks state of the control measure that need employ prevention;

The described emergency circumstance is meant electrical network one place or has taken place more than two places or continued power grid accident takes place, and does not take to protect control measure as yet; Though or taked protection and control measure, accident still continue, operation of power networks is still at the state that worsens, and causes user's power failure, electric power facility damage, quality of power supply severe overweight or electrical network unstability; Though or electrical network do not break down, and foregone conclusion spare, service condition occur, need take the operation of power networks state of urgent protection and control measure;

Described returning to form, be meant a kind of operation of power networks state with following feature: restPose with state of living in behind the power grid accident with for avoiding operation of power networks state after certain accident takes some electric grid operatings to change to be called, electrical network is returned to the process of normal condition residing state and is called and returns to form from restPosing;

Described optimization state is meant that electrical network is according to the equal running status in allowed band of the operation of the determined method of operation of optimization aim, every operating index;

Each stage of described power distribution network is meant: in the different running method of power distribution network, the different running control process; If power distribution network is in the optimization state, returns to form, risk status and the emergency circumstance is in each operation phase, power distribution network is carried out the risk identification; Each running status of described power distribution network is meant: include but not limited to five kinds of running statuses of power distribution network, if the state of power distribution network is carried out other division, need carry out the identification of risk status;

Is that 201110171844.9 the described definition of application documents is carried out to the current running status discrimination method of power distribution network according to application number.

The 9th optimized technical scheme provided by the invention is: the risk status basis for estimation that defines in described rule base, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse, can preestablish, and also can be created on the line rule automatically by man-machine conversation or intelligent algorithm.

Compared with prior art, the beneficial effect that reaches of the present invention is:

1, the present invention adopts rule base, knowledge base, experts database, the design of risk storehouse and online generation thereof to carry out the judgement and the evaluation of risk indicator result of calculation, thereby confirms whether current power distribution network is risk status; Wherein, the design of rule base, knowledge base, experts database has avoided adopting single, isolated risk indicator to judge, but adopts integrated risk index (including but not limited to electric risk indicator, environmental risk index, time margin index) to carry out judgement, identification and the evaluation of power distribution network risk status.

2, in the serial computing method of the present invention, the continuous identification of risk status is carried out after picking out risk status with tracking; In the parallel calculating method that is adopted, the identification of continuous identification of risk status and tracking and the electrical network risk status under each state of each stage is carried out simultaneously; Serial computing method and parallel calculating method are the different designs thinkings of power distribution network risk status identification overall process, and its identification result is the same.

3, power distribution network risk status discrimination method of the present invention, to risk status Continuous Tracking and identification, be applicable to that each operation phase of power distribution network reaches and each running status, the generation that identification result can be the risk-aversion controlling schemes provides accurately, reliable, effectively risk type, risk sources, risk location equivalent risk information, avoided clear and definite the situation of blindly formulating the risk-aversion controlling schemes when meeting the risk details.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the overview flow chart of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention;

Fig. 2 is the serial computing method flow diagram of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention;

Fig. 3 is the parallel calculating method process flow diagram of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention;

Fig. 4 is the parallel calculating method simplified flow chart of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention.

Embodiment

The identification of power distribution network risk status is carried out in operation of power networks in real time, comprise two continuous processes: first process is that power distribution network moves in each state of each stage, need carry out the identification of power distribution network risk status in real time, with the risk level of predicting or the quantitative evaluation power distribution network faces; Second process is after power distribution network is in the risk status or first process judges electrical network and carry out risk status, carry out continuous identification of power distribution network risk and tracking in real time, follow the tracks of the development and change situation (including but not limited to disappearance, expansion or the deterioration of former risk) of former risk on the one hand, whether identification has other risk to take place on the other hand.

Fig. 1 is the overview flow chart of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention, power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention is that the power distribution network node is carried out the risk status identification, according to certain rule base, knowledge base, experts database, risk storehouse and various information source, carry out moving power distribution network risk status identification under each state of each stage and continuous identification of risk status and the tracking under the risk status based on the serial computing method with based on the power distribution network of parallel calculating method, various information comprise historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors, information of forecasting and video monitoring information.

Fig. 2 is the serial computing method flow diagram of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention, the step of power distribution network risk status identification serial computing method and theing contents are as follows:

(1) power distribution network is moved each state of each stage, carry out the identification of power distribution network risk status.

(1-1) according to information of forecastings such as historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors and load, weather, temperature, and according to the video monitoring information that methods such as image recognition obtain, carry out risk indicator and calculate;

(1-2) adopt index result of calculation, the basis for estimation of binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the definition of risk storehouse judges whether electrical network is in risk status.Wherein the risk status basis for estimation that defines in rule base, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse can preestablish, and also can be created on the line rule automatically by man-machine conversation or intelligent algorithm;

(1-3) if judge that electrical network is in risk status, then continue step (3) and carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking, and continue step (2) simultaneously and carry out the identification of risk source and risk type, carry out the generation of risk-aversion controlling schemes then, carry out the risk-aversion controlling schemes at last;

(1-4), then judged whether index exceeding standard, comprised electric index and alarm index according to index result of calculation if judge that electrical network is not in risk status;

If electric index exceeding standard is only arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (1-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator calculating again;

If the alarm index exceeding standard is only arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (1-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator calculating again;

If electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (1-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator calculating again;

If electric index and alarm index all have do not exceed standard, then return step (1-1) and carry out risk indicator calculating again.

Wherein, the alarm index includes but not limited to: environmental index, temperature index, air pressure index, weather index etc.

(2) after power distribution network enters risk status, carrying out the identification of risk source and risk type immediately, mainly is to carry out searching and locating of risk source, the judgement of risk type.

(3) after power distribution network enters risk status, need carry out continuous identification of power distribution network risk status and tracking.

(3-1) the operation of power networks situation is proceeded monitoring,, carry out risk indicator and calculate according to information of forecastings such as historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors and load, weather, temperature;

(3-2) the time accumulated result in employing index result of calculation and the risk status identification step (1-4), the basis for estimation that defines in binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse judges whether electrical network is in risk status;

(3-3) if judge that electrical network is not in risk status, then stop a series of processes under the former risk status, comprise (execution of the generation of prevention and control scheme and prevention and control scheme under the former risk status), return step (1-4) proceed the to exceed standard judgement of index simultaneously; If judge that electrical network is in risk status, then carry out the identification of risk source and risk type once more, and the identification result in identification result and the step (2) is compared, judge former risky whether the existence, whether there is new risk to occur;

(3-4) the relatively judgement of process risk source and risk type identification result, if former risk exists, and there is not the appearance of new risk, then continue a series of processes under the former risk status, and enter step (3-5) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard (at this moment other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of former risk);

If former risk disappears, new risk occurs, then carry out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, stop a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enter step (3-5) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard (at this moment other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of new risk);

If former risk exists, and new risk occurs, then carry out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, continue a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enter step (3-5) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard (at this moment other index is meant except that exceed standard other index the index of new risk and former risk);

(3-5) judged whether other index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation, other index comprises other electric index and other alarm index;

If other electric index exceeding standard is only arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator calculating again;

If other alarm index exceeding standard is only arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator calculating again;

If other electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator calculating again;

If electric index and alarm index all have do not exceed standard, then return step (3-1) and carry out risk indicator calculating again.

Fig. 3 is the parallel calculating method process flow diagram of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention, the step of power distribution network risk status identification parallel calculating method and theing contents are as follows:

<1〉power distribution network is moved each state of each stage, carry out the identification of power distribution network risk status

<1-1〉according to information of forecastings such as historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors and load, weather, temperature, and according to the video monitoring information that methods such as image recognition obtain, carry out risk indicator and calculate;

<1-2〉adopt index result of calculation, the basis for estimation of binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the definition of risk storehouse judges whether electrical network is in risk status.Wherein the risk status basis for estimation that defines in rule base, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse can preestablish, and also can be created on the line rule automatically by man-machine conversation or intelligent algorithm.

<1-3〉if judge that electrical network is not in risk status, then judged whether index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation, comprise electric index and alarm index;

If only electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step<1-1 the time of exceeding standard carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

If only the alarm index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step<1-1 the time of exceeding standard carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

If electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step<1-1 the time of exceeding standard carry out risk indicator again and calculate;

If electric index and alarm index all have and do not exceed standard, then return step<1-1〉carry out risk indicator again and calculate.

Wherein, the alarm index includes but not limited to: environmental index, temperature index, air pressure index, weather index etc.

<1-4〉if judge that electrical network is in risk status, need continue then to judge whether the previous moment state is risk status.

If the previous moment state is not risk status, then return step<1-1〉proceed the calculating of risk indicator, enter step<2 simultaneously〉carry out the identification of risk source and risk type;

If the previous moment state is risk status, then adopt step<2〉the risk source that obtains and the result of risk type identification, enter step<3〉carry out the risk status Continuous Tracking.

<2〉after power distribution network enters risk status, carrying out the identification of risk source and risk type immediately, mainly is to carry out searching and locating of risk source, the judgement of risk type.

<3〉if electrical network previous moment state is a risk status, then carry out power distribution network risk status Continuous Tracking.

<3-1〉the current time risk status is carried out the identification and the judgement of risk source and risk type, and with step<2 whether the previous moment risk source and the risk type judged result that obtain compare, and judges former risky whether the existence, have new risk to occur.

<3-2〉through the relatively judgement of current time and previous moment risk source and risk type identification result, if former risk exists, and there is not the appearance of new risk, then continue a series of processes under the former risk status, and enter step<1-4 judge that other index has or not and exceed standard (at this moment other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of former risk);

If former risk disappears, new risk occurs, then carry out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, stop a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enter step<1-4 judge that other index has or not and exceed standard (at this moment other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of new risk);

If former risk exists, and new risk occurs, then carry out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, continue a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enter step<1-4 judge that other index has or not and exceed standard (at this moment other index is meant except that exceed standard other index the index of new risk and former risk).

A series of processes under the former risk status comprise the generation of prevention and control scheme under the former risk status and the execution of prevention and control scheme.

At step<1-2〉operation below the execution of back:

At step<1-2〉carry out that index is calculated and judge decision-making after, consider that current electrical network is that risk status directly enters step<1-3〉judgement of the index that exceeds standard.

Here comprise the two-layer meaning: if learn that according to the decision-making judged result current electrical network is not a risk status, then enters step<1-3〉judgement and the accumulative total of the duration that exceeds standard of the index that exceeds standard; If learn that according to the decision-making judged result current electrical network is a risk status, then can directly enter step<1-3〉carry out the continuation accumulative total of the former index duration that exceeds standard and judged whether other index exceeding standards and accumulative total exceeds standard the duration, enter step<1-4 simultaneously〉carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking.

A series of processes under the former risk status are meant: processes such as the former risk Source Type identification under the former risk status, former risk location, former risk-aversion controlling schemes generate, former risk-aversion control execution, the net result of this process is that former risk is disappeared.Because the Continuous Tracking of risk and identification be with former risk under the prevention and control scheme generate, process such as former risk-aversion control executions is to carry out side by side the while, because the former risk-aversion controlling schemes generative process time is longer, there be the situation of the time of risk Continuous Tracking and identification less than the former risk-aversion controlling schemes rise time, therefore, if risk Continuous Tracking and identification are judged former risk and existed, then continue to carry out processes such as former risk-aversion controlling schemes generation, execution.

With reference to the accompanying drawings and in conjunction with the embodiments the inventive method is described in detail, but the invention is not restricted to given example.

As shown in Figure 4, Fig. 4 is the parallel calculating method simplified flow chart of power distribution network risk status discrimination method provided by the invention.

(1) utilize real-time multi-source information (including but not limited to the information of power distribution network operation information, load prediction information, weather information, user profile, personal information, AMI and intelligent power equipment etc.) that various smart machines in the electrical network, data acquisition equipment and various automated system gather and historical information (including but not limited to the power distribution network operation information, load prediction information, weather information of each time period stored etc.) to carry out the calculating of risk indicator.

Risk indicator includes but not limited to that overload risk, superpotential risk, low-voltage risk, unstability risk, mistake load risk, equipment operation cumulative bad risk itself, other external environments change the risk that causes.Wherein overload risk includes but not limited to circuit overload risk, transformer overload risk; The superpotential risk includes but not limited to lightning surge risk, power-frequency overvoltage risk, resonance overvoltage risk, switching overvoltage risk, arc grounding superpotential risk; The low-voltage risk includes but not limited to voltage dip risk, collapse of voltage risk; The unstability risk includes but not limited to voltage unstability risk, merit angle unstability risk, vibration unstability risk; Other risks include but not limited to protect malfunction, tripping risk, theft and artificial destruction to cause electric network fault risk, staff's maloperation to cause electric network fault risk, electrical network to suffer disaster risks such as earthquake, ice damage, typhoon; Electrical network suffers attack of terrorism risk.All risk indicators of the present invention are all relevant with the time.

(2), judge comprehensively in conjunction with risk indicator result of calculation whether electrical network is in risk status according to rule base, knowledge base, experts database.Carry out following explanation with the pairing judgment rule of circuit overload risk indicator:

The circuit overload risk indicator comprises circuit overload risk actual measurement index and circuit overload risk profile index, wherein surveying index is to calculate according to real-time information and the resulting load data of historical information, and prediction index is that the data according to the resulting load prediction of information of forecasting calculate.

The circuit overload risk indicator is defined as: it is 50% that Single-ring network (containing hand in hand), is equipped with structural unit circuit overload risk indicator lower limit for one; Two supply one to be equipped with structural unit circuit overload risk indicator lower limit 67%; It is 75% that three confessions one are equipped with structural unit circuit overload risk indicator lower limit.

Supply one to be equipped with the structural unit circuit for Single-ring network (containing hand in hand),, judge that its rule that overload risk takes place may be defined as:

If the circuit overload risk indicator is greater than 50% and less than 100%, overload duration overtime nargin index lower limit (as: 30min) is then judged electrical network generation overload risk;

If the circuit overload risk indicator is greater than 100%, overload duration overtime nargin index lower limit (as: 10min) is then judged electrical network generation overload risk;

(3),, then carry out the identification of risk source and risk type, and proceed continuous identification of risk status and tracking if electrical network is in risk status if whether be in risk status according to risk indicator result of calculation and the current electrical network of rule judgment; If electrical network is not in risk status, then continue to have judged whether index exceeding standard, and the accumulative total index exceeding standard duration.

As, according to risk indicator computational scheme overload risk indicator is 50%, but the duration is 0s, be that current institute fetches data and better makes circuit overload risk indicator limit value reach 50%, but Mei Youshijian accumulative total also, therefore judge that according to the risk judgment rule electrical network is not in risk status, then carry out the accumulative total of circuit overload index exceeding standard time; If proceeding risk indicator calculates, this moment, circuit overload risk indicator value still was 50%, but aggregated duration is 5min, therefore judges that according to the risk judgment rule electrical network is not in risk status, then proceeds the accumulative total of circuit overload index exceeding standard time; And so forth, if risk indicator computational scheme overload risk indicator is 60%, but aggregated duration is 31min, judges that then this moment, electrical network was in risk status.

(4) power distribution network is in risk status, need carry out identification and the continuous identification of risk status and the tracking of risk source and risk type simultaneously.

(5), and carry out the generation of the prevention and control scheme under the overload risk status and the execution of prevention and control process if judge that according to risk source and risk type discrimination method electrical network is in the overload risk status.

(6) simultaneously, need to continue to carry out the calculating of risk indicator, and carry out the judgement of risk status according to rule base, experts database, knowledge base, risk storehouse according to real-time multi-source information, historical information and load prediction information; According to continuous identification under the risk source in (5) and risk type identification result and the risk status with follow the tracks of in resulting risk source and risk type identification result compare, comparative result can be divided in following 4 situation and discuss:

1) if judges that power distribution network circuit overload risk indicator is 49%, and do not have other risk indicators and exceed normal range, then original overload risk disappears, and does not have other new risks generations, and the index of then returning in the risk status identification that exceeds standard is judged, whether the index of exceeding standard is arranged, if there is not the index that exceeds standard, then returns and carry out the risk status identification again, if index exceeding standard is arranged, then totally exceed standard the time, and proceed the continuous identification and the tracking of new risk status;

2) if judge that power distribution network circuit overload risk indicator is 80%, and the duration is 35min, and other risk indicators are all in normal envelope, then proceed the generation of the prevention and control scheme under the overload risk status, whether other indexs except that the overload risk indicator of carrying out simultaneously under the risk status have the judgement that exceeds standard, if there are other indexs to exceed normal range, but do not reach the scope of risk status, then totally exceed standard the duration, and the duration that will exceed standard store, and continue to return the continuous recognition and tracking that carries out under the risk status; Do not exceed normal range if there are other indexs, then continue to return and carry out risk indicator calculating once more, proceed the continuous recognition and tracking of the risk under the overload risk status;

3) if judge that power distribution network circuit overload risk indicator is 80%, and the duration is 35min, and according to the resonance overvoltage duration accumulated result is judged the resonance overvoltage risk when the overload risk takes place the generation that exceeds standard, then proceed the generation of the prevention and control scheme under the overload risk status, also to carry out the generation of the prevention and control scheme under the resonance overvoltage risk status simultaneously, carry out simultaneously removing the overload risk indicator under overload risk status and the resonance overvoltage risk status, whether other indexs beyond the resonance overvoltage risk indicator have the judgement that exceeds standard, if there are other indexs to exceed normal range, but do not reach the scope of risk status, then totally exceed standard the duration, and the duration that will exceed standard store, and continue to return the continuous recognition and tracking that carries out under the risk status; Do not exceed normal range if there are other indexs, then continue to return and carry out risk indicator calculating once more, proceed the continuous recognition and tracking of the risk under overload risk status and the resonance overvoltage risk status;

4) if judge that power distribution network circuit overload risk indicator is 49%, then former circuit overload risk disappears, the generation of resonance overvoltage risk is arranged when exceeding standard the disappearance of duration accumulated result judgement overload risk according to resonance overvoltage, then stop the generation process of the prevention and control scheme under the former circuit overload risk status, and enter the generation of the prevention and control scheme under the resonance overvoltage risk status simultaneously, whether other indexs except that the resonance overvoltage risk indicator of carrying out simultaneously under the resonance overvoltage risk status have the judgement that exceeds standard, if there are other indexs to exceed normal range, but do not reach the scope of risk status, then totally exceed standard the duration, and the duration that will exceed standard store, and continue to return the continuous recognition and tracking that carries out under the risk status; Do not exceed normal range if there are other indexs, then continue to return and carry out risk indicator calculating once more, proceed the continuous recognition and tracking of the risk under the overload risk status.

Should be noted that at last: above embodiment is only in order to explanation the application's technical scheme but not to the restriction of its protection domain; although the application is had been described in detail with reference to the foregoing description; those of ordinary skill in the field are to be understood that: those skilled in the art still can carry out all changes, revise or be equal to replacement to the embodiment of application after reading the application; these changes, revise or be equal to replacement, it is all within the claim scope that its application is awaited the reply.

Claims (10)

1. a power distribution network risk status discrimination method is characterized in that, described power distribution network risk status discrimination method comprises serial computing method and parallel calculating method; Described serial computing method and parallel calculating method all comprise two continuous processes: first process is that power distribution network moves in each state of each stage, need carry out the identification of power distribution network risk status in real time, with the risk level of predicting or the quantitative evaluation power distribution network faces; Second process is after power distribution network is in the risk status or first process judges power distribution network and enter risk status, carry out continuous identification of power distribution network risk and tracking in real time, follow the tracks of the development and change situation of former risk on the one hand, whether identification has other risk to take place on the other hand;
The development and change situation of described former risk includes but not limited to disappearance, expansion or the deterioration of former risk.
2. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, described serial computing method comprises the steps:
(1) power distribution network is moved each state of each stage and carry out the risk status identification;
(2) after described power distribution network enters risk status, carry out the identification of risk source and risk type immediately; The identification of carrying out risk source and risk type under the described risk status is meant carries out searching and the judgement of location and risk type of risk source;
(3) after described power distribution network enters risk status, carry out continuous identification of described power distribution network risk status and tracking.
3. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that, step (1) is described to be moved each state of each stage to power distribution network and carry out the risk status identification and comprise the steps:
(1-1) carrying out risk indicator according to historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors, information of forecasting and video monitoring information calculates;
(1-2) adopt index result of calculation, the basis for estimation of binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the definition of risk storehouse judges whether described power distribution network is in risk status;
(1-3) if judge that described power distribution network is in risk status, then continue step (3) and carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking, and continue step (2) simultaneously and carry out the identification of risk source and risk type, then carry out the generation of risk-aversion controlling schemes, carry out described risk-aversion controlling schemes at last;
(1-4), then judged whether index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation if judge that electrical network is not in risk status; Described index comprises electric index and alarm index;
A, if electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step (1-1) is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
B, if the alarm index exceeding standard is arranged, then add up the described index exceeding standard time, and step (1-1) is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
C, if electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the described index exceeding standard time, and step (1-1) is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
D, if electric index and alarm index all do not have and exceed standard, then return step (1-1) and carry out risk indicator again and calculate.
4. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that, step (3) is described carries out the continuous identification of described power distribution network risk status and tracking comprises the steps:
(3-1) according to historical information, the real-time multi-source information and the information of forecasting that monitor, described power distribution network operation conditions is proceeded monitoring, carry out risk indicator and calculate;
(3-2) the index exceeding standard time accumulated result of employing index result of calculation and risk status identification, the basis for estimation that defines in binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse judges whether described power distribution network is in risk status;
(3-3) be not in risk status, then stop the generation of prevention and control scheme under the former risk status of former risk status and the execution of described prevention and control scheme, return step (1-4) proceed the to exceed standard judgement of index simultaneously if judge described power distribution network; Be in risk status if judge described power distribution network, then carry out the identification of risk source and risk type once more, and the identification result in identification result and the step (2) is compared, judge formerly riskyly whether exist and whether new risk appearance arranged;
(3-4),, and do not have the appearance of new risk, then continue a series of processes under the former risk status, and enter step (3-7) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard if former risk exists through the relatively judgement of risk source and risk type identification result; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of former risk;
(3-5) if former risk disappears, new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, stops a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step (3-7) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of new risk;
(3-6) if former risk exists, and new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, continues a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step (3-7) and judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard other index the index of new risk and former risk;
(3-7) judged whether other index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation, described other index comprises other electric index and other alarm index;
A, if other electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
B, if other alarm index exceeding standard is arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
C, if other electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and will store and return step (3-1) time of exceeding standard and carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
D, if electric index and alarm index all do not have and exceed standard, then return step (3-1) and carry out risk indicator again and calculate.
5. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, described parallel calculating method comprises:
<1〉power distribution network is moved each state of each stage and carry out the risk status identification;
<2〉after described power distribution network enters risk status, carry out the identification of risk source and risk type immediately; The described identification of carrying out risk source and risk type is meant carries out searching and the judgement of location and risk type of risk source; Or
<3〉if described power distribution network previous moment state is a risk status, then carry out continuous identification of power distribution network risk status and tracking.
6. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, step<1〉describedly power distribution network is moved each state of each stage carry out the risk status identification and comprise the steps:
<1-1〉according to historical information, the real-time multi-source information that monitors, information of forecasting and video monitoring information, carry out risk indicator and calculate;
<1-2〉adopt index result of calculation, the basis for estimation of binding rule storehouse, knowledge base, experts database, the definition of risk storehouse judges whether electrical network is in risk status; If judge that described power distribution network is not in risk status, then judged whether index exceeding standard according to index result of calculation; Described index comprises electric index and alarm index;
I. if electric index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step<1-1 is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
II. if the alarm index exceeding standard arranged, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step<1-1 is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
III. if electric index and alarm index all exceed standard, then add up the index exceeding standard time, and step<1-1 is stored and returned to the described index exceeding standard time carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
IV. if electric index and alarm index all do not have and exceed standard, then return step<1-1〉carry out risk indicator again and calculate;
<1-3〉if judge that electrical network is in risk status, need continue then to judge whether the previous moment state is risk status;
1. if the previous moment state is not a risk status, then return step<1-1〉proceed the calculating of risk indicator, enter step<2 simultaneously〉carry out the identification of risk source and risk type;
2. if the previous moment state is a risk status, then adopt described step<2〉the risk source that obtains and the result of risk type identification, enter step<3〉describedly carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking.
7. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, step<3〉describedly carry out the continuous identification of power distribution network risk status and tracking comprises the steps:
<3-1〉the current time risk status carried out the identification and the judgement of risk source and risk type, and with described step<2 the previous moment risk source and the risk type judged result that obtain compare, judge former risky whether the existence, whether have new risk to occur;
<3-2〉through the relatively judgement of current time and previous moment risk source and risk type identification result, if former risk exists, and do not have the appearance of new risk, then continue a series of processes under the former risk status, and enter step<1-4 judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of former risk;
<3-3〉if former risk disappears, new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, stops a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step<1-4〉judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard index the index of new risk;
<3-4〉if former risk exists, and new risk occurs, and then carries out the formulation of new risk-aversion controlling schemes, continues a series of processes under the former risk status simultaneously, and enters step<1-4〉judge that other index has or not and exceed standard; Described other index is meant except that exceed standard other index the index of new risk and former risk.
8. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 5, it is characterized in that, at described step<1-4〉back carries out following operation: at step<1-2〉carry out after index calculates and judge decision-making, consider that current power distribution network is a risk status, directly enters step<1-3〉judgement of the index that exceeds standard:
If learn that according to the decision-making judged result current power distribution network is not a risk status, then enters step<1-3〉carry out the judgement and the accumulative total of index exceeding standard duration of index exceeding standard;
If learn that according to the decision-making judged result current electrical network is a risk status, then directly enter step<1-3〉carry out the continuation accumulative total of former index exceeding standard duration and judged whether other index exceeding standards and the accumulative total index exceeding standard duration, enter step<1-4 simultaneously〉carry out continuous identification of risk status and tracking.
9. risk status discrimination method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that,
Described state of electric distribution network comprises normal condition, optimization state, risk status, the emergency circumstance and returns to form;
Described normal condition, be meant that electrical network moves by the predefined method of operation, all users except that scheduled outage are kept continued power, every, various operating index are all at preset range, according to the operation of this state, can not cause or come power grid risk with low probability band;
Described risk status, be meant under the method for operation of setting in advance, under the later service condition of current operation of power networks conditioned disjunction current point in time, a certain or two above operating index of electrical network have exceeded maybe will exceed preset range, have big possibility to cause the operation of power networks target component to worsen, take place certain or multiple power grid accident; Though or risk do not appear in electrical network, foregone conclusion spare, service condition occur, the operation of power networks state of the control measure that need employ prevention;
The described emergency circumstance is meant electrical network one place or has taken place more than two places or continued power grid accident takes place, and does not take to protect control measure as yet; Though or taked protection and control measure, accident still continue, operation of power networks is still at the state that worsens, and causes user's power failure, electric power facility damage, quality of power supply severe overweight or electrical network unstability; Though or electrical network do not break down, and foregone conclusion spare, service condition occur, need take the operation of power networks state of urgent protection and control measure;
Described returning to form, be meant a kind of operation of power networks state with following feature: restPose with state of living in behind the power grid accident with for avoiding operation of power networks state after certain accident takes some electric grid operatings to change to be called, electrical network is returned to the process of normal condition residing state and is called and returns to form from restPosing;
Described optimization state is meant that electrical network is according to the equal running status in allowed band of the operation of the determined method of operation of optimization aim, every operating index;
Each stage of described power distribution network is meant: in the different running method of power distribution network, the different running control process; If power distribution network is in the optimization state, returns to form, risk status and the emergency circumstance is in each operation phase, power distribution network is carried out the risk identification; Each running status of described power distribution network is meant: include but not limited to five kinds of running statuses of power distribution network, if the state of power distribution network is carried out other division, need carry out the identification of risk status.
10. as claim 3 or 6 described risk status discrimination methods, it is characterized in that, the risk status basis for estimation that defines in described rule base, knowledge base, experts database, the risk storehouse can preestablish, and also can be created on the line rule automatically by man-machine conversation or intelligent algorithm.
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