CN102063651B - Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition - Google Patents
Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN102063651B CN102063651B CN201010537990.4A CN201010537990A CN102063651B CN 102063651 B CN102063651 B CN 102063651B CN 201010537990 A CN201010537990 A CN 201010537990A CN 102063651 B CN102063651 B CN 102063651B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- risk evaluation
- data
- risk
- power grid
- network
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 30
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 claims description 17
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004422 calculation algorithm Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000005283 ground state Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 abstract description 8
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 abstract description 3
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000013439 planning Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000003012 network analysis Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000010937 topological data analysis Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000000342 Monte Carlo simulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012512 characterization method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010205 computational analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012954 risk control Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000003068 static effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000013589 supplement Substances 0.000 description 1
- 208000011580 syndromic disease Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 230000000007 visual effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012800 visualization Methods 0.000 description 1
Images
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
- Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses an urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition, belonging to the field of on-line operation and analysis of urban power grids. The urban power grid risk evaluation system comprises a power grid operation data acquisition module, a power grid data conversion modeling module, a risk evaluation module, a web server and a web rich client side application program, wherein the power grid operation data acquisition module is connected with the power grid data conversion modeling module and used as the data resource of the urban power grid risk evaluation system; the urban power grid risk evaluation module, the web server and the web rich client side application program finish processing classification and publishing results for the risk evaluation results. The urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition builds the on-line risk evaluation and calculation model of an urban power grid by collecting, screening and converting the on-line data of the power grid, analyzes the risk degree of the urban power grid on line and publishes a risk evaluation result and risk early warning information on line.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to operation of urban distribution network analysis, be specifically related to a kind of urban distribution network risk evaluating system based on online acquisition data.
Background technology
Urban distribution network risk is within definite time period, due to the uncertainty of the uncertainty of loading in urban distribution network and equipment failure pattern, causes urban distribution network to cause damage and the size of loss occurrence probability.The probability nature of its behavior that has its source in of urban distribution network risk, the impact of the fault of equipment in electrical network, load, outside nature and the factor such as artificial all has uncertainty, and these factors may cause system to occur by local until large-area power failure.The assessment of urban distribution network probability risk is by setting up the index of characterization system risk, possibility and severity of consequence that identification failure event occurs, the probability attribute of the aspects such as the behavior of reflection urban distribution network, load variations and element fault; Determine the acceptable risk level of system and risk control measure.Methods of risk assessment is used for Electric Power Network Planning field at present, and application long-time statistical data, analyze the power grid risk in longer period of time (year), without obtaining, use powernet data.
Along with the fast development of urban distribution network, electric network composition is increasingly sophisticated, and electrical network inside and outside threatens the various risk factors of electric power netting safe running more and more, to Regulation, brings very large challenge.At present, although EMS system can be carried out power grid security analysis and calculation, but the application model of its network analysis function is main or just carry out after receiving dispatcher's request, stress research mode, lack from motion tracking operation of power networks state, find online the function of electric network security problem.In operation of urban distribution network management, introduce probability risk assessment, the probability attribute that can reflect the aspects such as electric power system behavior, load variations and element fault, and provide the risk level quantized value of urban distribution network, be the important supplement of operation of urban distribution network deterministic parsing method.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is methods of risk assessment to be applied to in-service monitoring and the early warning of operation of power networks, by to the collection of powernet data, screening, conversion, set up the online risk assessment computation model of urban distribution network, carry out analysis and calculation, point out whether electrical network meets safety standards within following a few hours or a couple of days; If do not met, provide electrical network within the corresponding time period, depart from the possibility of safe operation state and the comprehensive measurement of departure degree, it is the operation risk degree of electrical network, and point out to cause corresponding risk factors and the event of power grid risk, analysis result shows in the mode of three-dimensional visualization the most at last, thereby improves urban distribution network safety operation level, reduces loss of outage.For the safe operation that guarantees urban distribution network, there is very large society and economic worth.
The present invention proposes a kind of urban distribution network risk evaluating system based on online acquisition data, comprise operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2), risk evaluation module (3), web server (4) and web rich client applications (5);
Described operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) and risk evaluation module (3) are arranged on respectively on the different computers that are mutually connected by local area network (LAN), or be arranged on same computer, by local area network (LAN), be connected with the database server of grid dispatching management system; Web server (4) by local area network (LAN) with operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) be installed be connected with the computer of risk evaluation module (3), web rich client applications (5) is arranged on one to be had on web browser computer, by local area network (LAN), be connected with web server, described web rich client applications (5) is utilized the Flex of Adobe company technological development, operate in web browser, possess the weblication of abundant pattern exhibition power.
The invention allows for a kind of appraisal procedure of using said system, comprise the following steps:
(1) operation of power networks data acquisition module (1) reads electrical network basic equipment data, topological structure of electric data, load prediction data, operation history data and real-time running data from the database server of grid dispatching management system by network;
(2) data that electric network data conversion MBM (2) obtains according to step 1, draw the folding condition of various switches in electrical network, the annexation of circuit, the information such as the tap connection status of transformer, and then set up the model of electrical network network configuration and operational mode;
(3) risk evaluation module (3) is carried out state estimation calculating to the current ruuning situation of electrical network;
(4) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated ground state trend according to state estimation result;
(5) risk evaluation module (3) according to state estimation result calculate the previous day every the historical trend of 15 minutes;
(6) risk evaluation module (3) is used Monte Carlo algorithm, according to the probability that may affect the weather of grid equipment operation and other disaster risk data and historical data judgement various device and break down;
(7) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated N-k state trend according to ground state trend;
(8) risk evaluation module (3) each calculation of tidal current relatively, and the probability occurring, calculate various risk assessment values;
(9) web server (4) is utilized result of calculation, forms Risk Assessment Report web page;
(10) web rich client applications (5) obtains the assessment report page from web server, and shows.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
(1) structure, pattern and the system of collection, screening, conversion and the modeling of the online risk assessment computational analysis of urban distribution network data have been set up;
(2) methods of risk assessment is applied to the analysis of urban distribution network online evaluation, has realized methods of risk assessment from off-line to online, the application from planning application to operating analysis;
(3) design the data flow of urban distribution network risk analysis result, set up the structural system of visual presentation risk.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is further described.
Fig. 1 is according to System Construction schematic diagram of the present invention, has shown essential structure and the data flow of system.
Fig. 2 is according to power grid risk assessment schematic flow sheet of the present invention, has shown how from operation of power networks data, to draw the key step of risk evaluation result.
Embodiment
The operation of power networks data that method of the present invention relates to are quite large, and the power system calculation algorithm used is complicated, and most of algorithm is all common practise, without detailed description, and only simple example explanation below:
1) take somewhere power distribution network as example, first obtain static data: comprise network configuration and network parameter, need to from power network schedule automation database, obtain by data-interface; Then obtain dynamic data: comprise network online measuring data, need to from power network schedule automation database, obtain by data-interface equally;
2) on the basis of these data, carry out topological analysis, topological analysis is, according on off state, network node/switch model (electrical model) is converted into model/branch road model (computation model), for risk analysis, calculates basis is provided.
3) carry out load prediction, load prediction results is the fundamental parameter of risk assessment.The assessment period of the online risk assessment of urban distribution network comprises current period and following a couple of days, need to pass through short-term, very Short-Term Load Forecasting Method, sets up the load prediction curve in following a couple of days.For the risk assessment of longer period of time, can set up a broad sense load level hierarchical table by load data processing, with corresponding distributed model, characterize the uncertainty of load.
4) select contingency set, comprise N-1 fault and predefined N-k fault, for different analysis period and evaluating objects, can select different contingency sets.Forecast accident analysis is according to the contingency set of setting, and by trend, calculates, and analyzes under different forecast accident states, and out-of-limit element (out-of-limit, the voltage out-of-limit of loading) occurs, and the out-of-limit degree of computing element.
5) carry out risk indicator calculating, by adding up the probability of the failure state of sampling out in Monte Carlo simulation, and the out-of-limit index that calculates of failure state, calculate each risk indicator, index comprises operation out-of-limit online risk indicator (OOPRI), loss load online risk indicator (LOPRI), the loss online risk indicator of electric weight (EOPRI), the online risk indicator of low-voltage (VOPRI).
Take that to move out-of-limit online risk indicator (OOPRI) be example, move out-of-limit online risk indicator (OOPRI) and be used to indicate the operation of power networks parameter of urban distribution network within the assessment period, comprise transformer load, Line Flow, busbar voltage etc., surpass the probability of operation limit value.Operations staff and planning personnel can not meet according to the size judgement system running state of OOPRI desired value the possibility of the risk generation of operation constraint.Computing formula is as follows:
Wherein: n is the number of the load pattern of prediction in the assessment period;
M is the number that forecast accident is concentrated forecast accident;
Pr (Cond
i) be the probability of the load pattern of prediction;
Pr (E
j| Cond
i) be the probability that under certain load pattern, forecast accident occurs;
OSev (E
j, Cond
i) be Consequence Assessment parameter, overload occurring is here 1, it is 0 that overload does not occur.
The calculation process of OOPRI is:
1. select a load pattern;
2. select a contingency set;
3. trend is calculated, and out-of-limit notice tide optimization syndrome module occurs, and out-of-limit OSev (E does not occur
j, Cond
i) be 0;
4. optimize to proofread and correct trend, out-of-limit OSev (E still after correction
j, Cond
i) be 1, no this is 0;
5. whether having selected contingency set, noly got back to 2, is next step;
6. whether having selected load pattern, noly got back to 1, is next step;
7. using formula calculates OOPRI.
According to specific exemplary embodiment, invention has been described above.It will be apparent under not departing from the scope of the present invention, carrying out to one skilled in the art suitable replacement or revise.Exemplary embodiment is only illustrative, rather than the restriction to scope of the present invention, and scope of the present invention is defined by appended claim.
Claims (1)
1. the urban distribution network risk evaluating system based on online acquisition data, is characterized in that:
Comprise operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2), risk evaluation module (3), web server (4) and web rich client applications (5);
Described operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) and risk evaluation module (3) are arranged on respectively on the different computers that are mutually connected by local area network (LAN), or be arranged on same computer, by local area network (LAN), be connected with the database server of grid dispatching management system; Web server (4) by local area network (LAN) with operation of power networks data acquisition module (1), electric network data conversion MBM (2) be installed be connected with the computer of risk evaluation module (3), web rich client applications (5) is arranged on one to be had on web browser computer, by local area network (LAN), be connected with web server, described web rich client applications (5) is utilized the Flex of Adobe company technological development, operate in web browser, possess the weblication of abundant pattern exhibition power;
Use the appraisal procedure of described system to comprise the following steps: (1) operation of power networks data acquisition module (1) reads electrical network basic equipment data, topological structure of electric data, load prediction data, operation history data and real-time running data from the database server of grid dispatching management system by network;
(2) data that electric network data conversion MBM (2) obtains according to step 1, draw the folding condition of various switches in electrical network, the annexation of circuit, the information such as the tap connection status of transformer, and then set up the model of electrical network network configuration and operational mode;
(3) risk evaluation module (3) is carried out state estimation calculating to the current ruuning situation of electrical network;
(4) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated ground state trend according to state estimation result;
(5) risk evaluation module (3) according to state estimation result calculate the previous day every the historical trend of 15 minutes;
(6) risk evaluation module (3) is used Monte Carlo algorithm, according to the probability that may affect the weather of grid equipment operation and other disaster risk data and historical data judgement various device and break down;
(7) risk evaluation module (3) is calculated N-k state trend according to ground state trend;
(8) risk evaluation module (3) each calculation of tidal current relatively, and the probability occurring, calculate various risk assessment values;
(9) web server (4) is utilized result of calculation, forms Risk Assessment Report web page;
(10) web rich client applications (5) obtains the assessment report page from web server, and shows.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201010537990.4A CN102063651B (en) | 2010-11-10 | 2010-11-10 | Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201010537990.4A CN102063651B (en) | 2010-11-10 | 2010-11-10 | Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN102063651A CN102063651A (en) | 2011-05-18 |
| CN102063651B true CN102063651B (en) | 2014-04-23 |
Family
ID=43998921
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201010537990.4A Active CN102063651B (en) | 2010-11-10 | 2010-11-10 | Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN102063651B (en) |
Families Citing this family (23)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102930477A (en) * | 2011-08-02 | 2013-02-13 | 国家电网公司 | Risk analysis management method and risk analysis management system for smart distribution network |
| CN102290811B (en) * | 2011-08-10 | 2014-06-25 | 上海市电力公司 | Method for evaluating accident prearranged plan and running way |
| CN102289582B (en) * | 2011-08-10 | 2015-07-08 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for recognizing risk state of power distribution network |
| CN102509018B (en) * | 2011-11-11 | 2015-03-04 | 山东电力研究院 | System and method for evaluating importance of power system facilities |
| CN102663537A (en) * | 2012-03-13 | 2012-09-12 | 凯里供电局 | Maintenance system of power equipment based on risk assessment |
| CN102930175B (en) * | 2012-03-28 | 2016-06-22 | 河海大学 | Assessment method for vulnerability of smart distribution network based on dynamic probability trend |
| CN102663522B (en) * | 2012-04-24 | 2015-01-07 | 湖南省电力公司调度通信局 | On-line risk evaluation method of power grid |
| CN102751725B (en) * | 2012-07-13 | 2015-08-05 | 中国电力科学研究院 | A kind of power distribution network overload method for recognizing risk state of power |
| CN103400311A (en) * | 2013-08-13 | 2013-11-20 | 国家电网公司 | Power network service data analysis system |
| CN103632311A (en) * | 2013-11-28 | 2014-03-12 | 国家电网公司 | Fault examining system and method for power grid operation |
| CN104218672B (en) * | 2014-07-11 | 2016-09-07 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of power distribution network operation risk early warning system evaluated based on real-time running state |
| CN105426980B (en) * | 2014-09-22 | 2021-01-01 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Power distribution network health index assessment engineering application system |
| CN105117839B (en) * | 2015-08-20 | 2017-12-29 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of power system weak link identification method based on cascading failure |
| CN106156947A (en) * | 2016-07-01 | 2016-11-23 | 北京华科合创科技发展有限公司 | A kind of production operation security risk managing and control system |
| CN106447185A (en) * | 2016-09-21 | 2017-02-22 | 广东工业大学 | Recycling economic feasibility dynamic evaluation method and system for product design |
| CN106684875B (en) * | 2016-12-13 | 2019-06-07 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Group of networks, method, power distribution network and its analysis method for dividing distribution web area |
| CN108596450B (en) * | 2018-04-09 | 2020-11-27 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Power grid risk early warning method and system |
| CN108647856B (en) * | 2018-04-09 | 2021-08-10 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Power grid risk prevention control method and system |
| CN110611304B (en) * | 2018-06-14 | 2022-09-02 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Power distribution network low-voltage risk online early warning method and system |
| CN110310098B (en) * | 2019-07-10 | 2023-07-21 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Automatic construction method and device for distribution network planning problem library |
| CN110707688B (en) * | 2019-09-12 | 2020-12-22 | 华电电力科学研究院有限公司 | Wind power load prediction method based on annual load curve and power grid user equipment change feedforward |
| CN112732272A (en) * | 2019-10-28 | 2021-04-30 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | Application program publishing method and device |
| CN111680872B (en) * | 2020-04-29 | 2022-11-08 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Power grid risk calculation method based on multi-source data fusion |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101859409A (en) * | 2010-05-25 | 2010-10-13 | 广西电网公司电力科学研究院 | Power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling system based on risk evaluation |
-
2010
- 2010-11-10 CN CN201010537990.4A patent/CN102063651B/en active Active
Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101859409A (en) * | 2010-05-25 | 2010-10-13 | 广西电网公司电力科学研究院 | Power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling system based on risk evaluation |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| 吴烽 * |
| 郭靖源.《信息化技术在输变电设备状态检修中的应用》.《电力信息化》.2010,(第4期), * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN102063651A (en) | 2011-05-18 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN102063651B (en) | Urban power grid risk evaluation system based on on-line data acquisition | |
| Afzal et al. | State‐of‐the‐art review on power system resilience and assessment techniques | |
| EP2537222B1 (en) | Energy generating system and control thereof | |
| CN103150635B (en) | Power equipment O&M method | |
| CN106097146A (en) | A kind of meter and the Wind turbines short term reliability Forecasting Methodology of running status | |
| CN101446990A (en) | Method for appraising voltage stability in case of large disturbance probability | |
| CN103246939B (en) | Safe operation of electric network risk case on-line identification method based on security margin | |
| CN103632311A (en) | Fault examining system and method for power grid operation | |
| Ge et al. | Evaluation of the situational awareness effects for smart distribution networks under the novel design of indicator framework and hybrid weighting method | |
| CN104616089A (en) | Large power grid running risk evaluation system | |
| CN104268693A (en) | Power grid dispatching determining method and system | |
| Guo et al. | Evidence-based approach to power transmission risk assessment with component failure risk analysis | |
| CN104574211A (en) | Power grid dispatching operating risk early warning method and system based on risk source | |
| CN102570447B (en) | Development stage division method for power grid | |
| CN111401719A (en) | Dynamic risk assessment method and device for power grid | |
| CN103605910A (en) | Reliability evaluation method for single protection device based on consideration of covert fault | |
| Xuping et al. | State maintenance strategy of wind turbine based on stochastic degradation model | |
| Guo et al. | Reliable life calculation of circuit breaker based on FTA and reliability function | |
| Wu et al. | Study on risk assessment system of power failure in distribution network of large cities | |
| Kerin et al. | Dynamic security assessment in system operation and planning—First experiences | |
| Wang et al. | Critical Propagation Path Identification for Cascading Overload Failures with Multi-Stage MILP | |
| Nguyen et al. | Probabilistic risk-based security assessment for power systems with wind power generation | |
| Idoniboyeobu et al. | Improvement of electrical power reliability for afam community in rivers state, Nigeria | |
| CN104361422A (en) | Power consumer power quality data collection method based on economic evaluation | |
| Cao et al. | Online Monitoring and Early Warning Technology of Repeated Multiple Blackouts in Distribution Network Based on Multisource Information Fusion and Delphi Method. |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| C06 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| C10 | Entry into substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| ASS | Succession or assignment of patent right |
Owner name: STATE ELECTRIC NET CROP. Effective date: 20130715 |
|
| C41 | Transfer of patent application or patent right or utility model | ||
| TA01 | Transfer of patent application right |
Effective date of registration: 20130715 Address after: 100192 Beijing city Haidian District Qinghe small Camp Road No. 15 Applicant after: China Electric Power Research Institute Applicant after: State Grid Corporation of China Address before: 100192 Beijing city Haidian District Qinghe small Camp Road No. 15 Applicant before: China Electric Power Research Institute |
|
| C14 | Grant of patent or utility model | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |