WO2021124643A1 - 食肉取引状況推定システム、食肉取引状況推定サーバ、食肉取引状況推定方法、及び食肉取引状況推定プログラム - Google Patents

食肉取引状況推定システム、食肉取引状況推定サーバ、食肉取引状況推定方法、及び食肉取引状況推定プログラム Download PDF

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WO2021124643A1
WO2021124643A1 PCT/JP2020/037367 JP2020037367W WO2021124643A1 WO 2021124643 A1 WO2021124643 A1 WO 2021124643A1 JP 2020037367 W JP2020037367 W JP 2020037367W WO 2021124643 A1 WO2021124643 A1 WO 2021124643A1
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Prior art keywords
meat
information
livestock
future
status
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PCT/JP2020/037367
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English (en)
French (fr)
Japanese (ja)
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神林　隆
剛士 牧野
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株式会社Ｅｃｏ‐Ｐｏｒｋ
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Priority to CN202080083119.3A priority Critical patent/CN114761978A/zh
Publication of WO2021124643A1 publication Critical patent/WO2021124643A1/ja

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/06—Buying, selling or leasing transactions
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/02—Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining

Definitions

  • This disclosure mainly relates to a meat transaction status estimation system, a meat transaction status estimation server, a meat transaction status estimation method, and a meat transaction status estimation program in the livestock wholesale market.
  • livestock raised by livestock farmers are generally wholesaled to wholesale markets and processed into meat such as carcasses and offal at slaughterhouses.
  • Retailers such as restaurants, mass retailers, and retailers procure processed meat through wholesale markets and the like.
  • Patent Document 1 the estimated shipping price (first variable) of a product (for example, cattle) is changed based on the growth status data group related to the growth status of the product, so that the product grows according to the growth process.
  • the evaluation value can be presented as appropriate.
  • a livestock farmer can grasp the evaluation value of the target livestock by comparing the preset plan for the livestock raised by himself / herself with the actual breeding history. Since there are livestock farms provided by other producers in the wholesale market where the price is determined, the determined meat transaction price fluctuates depending on the balance between supply and demand at that time. Consumers, such as retailers or processors located downstream of the supply chain, procure meat primarily from the midstream wholesale market, resulting in risk of fluctuations in transaction prices and procurement volumes in the wholesale market. ..
  • the purpose of this disclosure is to solve these problems, and the purpose of this disclosure is to provide meat procuring consumers with meat transactions that can improve the stability of future procurement implementation.
  • the purpose of the present invention is to provide a situation estimation system, a meat transaction status estimation server, a meat transaction status estimation method, and a meat transaction status estimation program.
  • the meat transaction status estimation system includes a procurement condition acquisition unit that acquires procurement conditions including the desired procurement time of the meat to be procured, and livestock breeding corresponding to the meat.
  • the shipping status estimation unit that estimates the future shipping status of the livestock and the wholesale market for the livestock using the domestic livestock information including the information on the situation and the past livestock information including the information on the breeding status of the livestock raised in the past.
  • the market information acquisition unit that acquires market information including meat transaction information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the above, and the future shipment status and the market information are used to determine the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time. It is equipped with a meat transaction status estimation unit that estimates future meat transaction status including.
  • information on the number of livestock raised based on livestock statistics information may be included as the breeding status of the livestock.
  • the domestic livestock information may include information on the livestock bred at individual farms.
  • the market information acquisition unit may acquire larvae transaction information including information on the transaction volume of larvae corresponding to the livestock as the market information.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit may calculate the tendency of the meat price from the market information and estimate the future meat price at the desired procurement time as the future meat transaction status.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit may calculate a basic statistic for the future meat price from the tendency of the meat price.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit may compare the procurement conditions with the future meat transaction status and generate a difference as difference information.
  • the livestock information includes information on the grade of the livestock as meat in the past livestock information
  • the shipping status estimation unit determines the future shipping status for each grade.
  • the market information acquisition unit acquires the meat transaction information for each grade, and the meat transaction status estimation unit uses the future shipment status for each grade and the meat transaction information for each grade to make the desired request.
  • the future meat trading situation including the future meat supply amount for each grade at the time of procurement may be estimated.
  • the market information acquisition unit acquires the meat transaction information for each of a plurality of wholesale markets, and the meat transaction status estimation unit uses the future shipment status and the meat transaction information.
  • the future meat trading situation including the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time may be estimated for each of a plurality of wholesale markets.
  • the livestock may be a pig.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server includes a procurement condition acquisition unit that acquires procurement conditions including the desired procurement time of the meat to be procured, and livestock corresponding to the meat.
  • the shipping status estimation unit that estimates the future shipping status of the livestock using the domestic livestock information including the information on the breeding status of the livestock and the past livestock information including the information on the breeding status of the livestock raised in the past, and the livestock
  • the market information acquisition department that acquires market information including meat transaction information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market, and the future meat supply at the desired procurement time by using the future shipment status and the market information. It is equipped with a meat transaction status estimation unit that estimates the future meat transaction status including the amount.
  • the meat transaction status estimation method includes a procurement condition acquisition step of acquiring procurement conditions including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and livestock corresponding to the meat.
  • the future meat supply at the desired procurement time using the market information acquisition step for acquiring the market information including the meat transaction information including the information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market, the future shipping status and the market information.
  • the meat trading status estimation step for estimating the future meat trading status including the amount is executed by the computer.
  • the meat transaction status estimation program includes a procurement condition acquisition step for acquiring procurement conditions including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and livestock corresponding to the meat.
  • the shipping status estimation step for estimating the future shipping status of the livestock and the shipping status estimation step of the livestock using the domestic livestock information including the information on the breeding status of the livestock and the past livestock information including the information on the breeding status of the livestock raised in the past.
  • the future meat supply at the desired procurement time using the market information acquisition step for acquiring the market information including the meat transaction information including the information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market, the future shipping status and the market information.
  • a computer is used to execute a meat transaction status estimation step for estimating the future meat transaction status including the amount.
  • FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram showing a meat transaction status estimation system 1 including a meat transaction status estimation server 101 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 and the information terminal 201 used by the user are communicably connected via the network NW.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 can connect to the information terminals of a plurality of users via the network NW. ..
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is a livestock statistics information source I1, I2, I3 that handles statistical information on livestock such as the national government, local governments, and administrative corporations, and a plurality of farms F1, F2 that raise livestock. It is communicably connected to the information terminals of multiple wholesale markets Ma1, Ma2, Ma3, and multiple livestock markets (pig market) Mb1, Mb2, and Mb3 that trade F3 and livestock via the network NW. Livestock statistics information from each livestock statistical information source I1, I2, I3, information on livestock (pig) described later at each farm F1, F2, F3, each wholesale market Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 and each livestock market (pig market) ) Information on the wholesale market and the livestock market (pig market) described later in Mb1, Mb2, and Mb3 can be obtained.
  • FIG. 1 shows only three livestock statistics sources, three farms, three wholesale markets, and three livestock markets (pig market), but the meat trade status estimation server 101 It is possible to connect to more livestock statistics sources, farms, wholesale markets and livestock markets (pig market) via the network NW.
  • the farm may be owned by one livestock farmer.
  • the wholesale market and the livestock market (pig market) may be a person who trades meat or a person who trades piglets, such as a wholesaler, a meat center, or a cooperative.
  • the meat transaction status estimation system 1 is a system that estimates and presents the meat transaction status corresponding to the procurement conditions, mainly by retailers such as restaurants, mass retailers, and retail stores that procure meat from the wholesale market. ..
  • the operator of the meat transaction status estimation system 1 implements a service of providing the retailer with the result of estimating the meat transaction status using the system.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is managed by the operator of the meat transaction status estimation system 1, and the retailer uses the information terminal 201. Further, the meat transaction status estimation server 101 may be managed by the retailer itself.
  • livestock for meat to be procured will be described as pigs.
  • Pigs are mainly divided into breeding pigs (breeding livestock) and non-breeding pigs (non-breeding livestock). Breeding pigs are so-called mother pigs that are bred to produce piglets. Non-breeding pigs are so-called meat pigs that are fattened for shipment as meat. Individual identifiers (individual IDs) are assigned to mother pigs and individual management is performed. The meat pigs are group-managed by assigning a group identifier (group ID) to a plurality of meat pigs.
  • group ID group identifier
  • piglets are piglets that are scheduled to be fattened mainly as meat pigs in the future, and after being selected as meat pigs, a group identifier (group ID) is given in the same way as self-breeding piglets. And group management.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is composed of one or a plurality of servers (computers) that execute processing based on a program, and has various calculation units and storage units.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 functionally mainly has a procurement condition acquisition unit 111, a livestock information database 121, a market information acquisition unit 131, a market information database 132, a calculation unit 141, and a display unit 151.
  • the database is referred to as DB).
  • the procurement condition acquisition unit 111 has a function of acquiring procurement conditions including a desired procurement time, a desired procurement amount, and a desired procurement price for each grade of meat input by the user via the input unit 211 of the information terminal 201.
  • the desired procurement amount can be specified by the number of carcasses, carcass weight, etc.
  • the procurement conditions can be specified with a range.
  • the desired procurement time can be specified not only as a predetermined day but also as a period, and the desired procurement amount is not limited to the predetermined number of carcasses or carcass weight. It can be specified as the number of carcasses or the weight of carcasses in a predetermined range, and the desired procurement price can be specified not only as a predetermined price but also as a price in a predetermined range. It is also possible to specify only a part of the grade, desired procurement amount, and desired procurement time as the procurement conditions.
  • the procurement conditions may include the breed of pork, the part of meat, and the like.
  • livestock information DB 121 as livestock information, livestock statistical information from each livestock statistical information source I1, I2, I3, domestic pig information based on information on pigs of farms F1, F2, F3, and past pig information are stored. There is.
  • FIG. 2 shows specific examples of livestock information, market information, and procurement conditions.
  • the livestock information includes information on the current and past number of livestock and the number of livestock raised nationwide and by prefecture based on livestock statistics information.
  • the number of pigs raised includes the number of pigs raised and the number of sows raised. This information is the basis for information on the overall production of pork by national and prefectural government, in other words, on the size of the pork trading market.
  • the current number of pigs and sows raised and the number of pigs raised based on the livestock statistics information are included in the pig information, and the past number of pigs and sows and the number of pigs in the past are included in the past pig information.
  • the livestock information includes breeding pig information and past pig information based on information on pigs of individual farms F1, F2, and F3.
  • the breeding pig information includes the pig information about the pigs currently bred at each farm and the sow information about the sows currently bred at each farm.
  • Meat pig information is group-managed information, specifically, the breed of the pig group, the number / identifier of the group, the number of pigs in each group, and whether each group is self-breeding or purchased in the piglet market.
  • Procurement method (origin information), number of days since birth (day age), type, amount and timing of fed food (feeding history), type, amount and timing of medication administered (medication history), current Contains information on the feeding status of pork, such as herd weight, movement history, etc.
  • Mother pig information is individually managed information, and specifically, the breed of mother pig, the number of mother pigs, the number of births, the presence or absence of pregnancy, the means of mating, the mating date, the expected date of birth, and one birth.
  • Information on the feeding of mother pigs such as the number of piglets (number of calves) and the number of weaned pigs, age, feeding history, medication history, weight, etc. are included.
  • Past pig information includes past pig information on past pigs raised at each farm and past pig information on past pigs raised in the past.
  • the past pork information is group-managed information, specifically, the breed of the pork group, the number of pigs at the time of shipment (number of pigs shipped), the age at the time of shipment (shipping date), and the origin. Information, feeding history, medication history, group weight at the time of shipment (group weight at the time of shipment), meat quality of pigs shipped, number of dead pigs that died before shipment, etc. Each is included.
  • the past sow information is individually managed information, and specifically, the sow breed, the mated sow breed, the mating means, the number of calves, the total number of calves, the total number of calves, and the number of calves at each calving ( Information on the past birth status of piglets, such as the number of surviving offspring) and the number of weaned pigs, feeding history, medication history, etc., is included.
  • Past pig information including each such information is stored without being limited to the farm, for example, from information on the date and time associated with each event (shipping, feeding, medication, weight measurement, death, birth, etc.), meat.
  • Statistical processing such as shipment trends by pig breed, birth trends by mother pig breed, and monthly and seasonal shipment and birth trends is memorized. In other words, this information can be supporting information or supplementary information of livestock statistics information.
  • the market information acquisition unit 131 is a pig transaction price from each wholesale market Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 connected via the network NW, each piglet market Mb1, Mb2, Mb3, a publicly available information source, and the like. It has a function to acquire market information including. In particular, the market information acquisition unit 131 acquires market information for each of a plurality of wholesale markets Ma1, Ma2, and Ma3 in different regions. The market information acquisition unit 131 is connected to the market information DB 132.
  • the market information DB 132 stores the market information acquired by the market information acquisition unit 131. As shown in FIG. 2, the market information stored in the market information DB 132 includes market basic information and meat trading information in each wholesale market, market basic information in each piglet market, and piglet trading information (young livestock trading). Information) is included.
  • the basic market information of the wholesale market includes information on the name, address, scale, types handled, business days, reception hours of livestock, expenses, etc. of the wholesale market.
  • Meat trading information includes information on current and past carcass prices and carcass supplies for each grade.
  • the carcass supply amount may be the number of carcasses or the weight of the carcasses.
  • the meat transaction information may include not only information on carcasses but also information on meat in specific parts such as internal organs and head.
  • the basic market information in the piglet market includes information on the name, address, scale, breeds handled, business days, piglet reception hours, expenses, etc. of the piglet market.
  • the piglet trading information includes information on current and past piglet trading prices and piglet trading volumes by weight (for example, baby pigs weighing 42.5 kg or less and regular pigs weighing more than 42.5 kg).
  • the piglet trading volume may be the number of piglets or the weight of piglets.
  • the calculation unit 141 has a function of estimating the future meat transaction status corresponding to the procurement conditions acquired by the procurement condition acquisition unit 111 from the livestock information stored in the livestock information DB 121 and the market information stored in the market information DB 132. have. Specifically, the calculation unit 141 has a shipping status estimation unit 142 and a meat transaction status estimation unit 143 as main functions.
  • the shipping status estimation unit 142 has a function of estimating the future shipping status of meat pigs by using the domestic pig information and the past pig information in the livestock information of the livestock information DB 121.
  • the shipping status estimation unit 142 manages the number of meat pigs raised, the number of pigs raised, and individual farms in the livestock market as a whole, which is the target in the meat pig information of the breeding pig information, for the meat pigs corresponding to the meat procurement conditions.
  • the breed, age, feeding history, medication history, group weight, etc. of the meat pigs to be slaughtered the trends in the number of breeding houses, the number of breeding pigs, and individual farms in the past livestock market as a whole, which is the target in the past meat pig information.
  • Future shipment time and future of currently bred pigs based on trends such as the number of pigs of the same breed shipped, age of shipment, group weight at the time of shipment, meat quality, feeding history, medication history, number of dead pigs, etc. Estimate the number of pigs shipped, future grade, and future meat quality as future shipment status.
  • the shipping status estimation unit 142 indicates the number of sows raised, the number of sows raised, and the varieties of sows managed by individual farms, the number of births, and the number of births in the livestock market as a whole, which is the target in the sow information of the sow information.
  • the number of sows raised, the number of sows raised, and the number of sows managed by individual farms in the livestock market as a whole which is the target of past sow information, with respect to the number of pigs born, feeding history, medication history, weight, etc.
  • Estimate the number of sows that can be delivered in the future of the sows covered by the collateral using trends such as the total number of sows, the total number of sows, the number of sows for each sow, feeding history, medication history, etc. of the sows of the breed as benchmarks. , Estimate the future shipment time of the piglet, the number of future shipments, and the future meat quality as the future shipment status.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 uses the future shipment status estimated by the shipment status estimation unit 142 and the market information stored in the market information DB 132 to include the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time of the procurement conditions. It has a function to estimate the meat trading situation. Specifically, the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time is estimated from the trends of the meat pig amount supplied from each farm to the wholesale market based on the future shipment status and the carcass transaction amount of the meat transaction information. Further, the meat trading status estimation unit 143 can correct the amount of pork supplied to the wholesale market by using the piglet trading volume included in the market information.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can calculate the tendency of the meat price from the meat transaction information and estimate the future meat price at the desired procurement time as the future meat transaction status.
  • This tendency of the meat price is shown as, for example, the price elasticity calculated from the trend of the carcass transaction volume and the transaction price for each grade of the meat transaction information, and the future meat price is estimated based on the price elasticity.
  • the future meat price may be calculated by replacing it with the present value using a discounted interest rate or the like.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can calculate the basic statistics for the estimated future meat price from the tendency of the meat price in the meat transaction information.
  • the basic statistics are, for example, the average value and standard of future meat prices in the applicable period as reference information when setting the applicable period in transactions with wholesalers, etc. in a certain period based on the desired procurement time. Calculate deviation, quartile, etc.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can compare the procurement conditions with the future meat transaction status and generate the difference as the difference information. Specifically, if the future meat supply amount is insufficient for the desired procurement amount at the desired procurement time, or if the future meat price is higher than the desired transaction price, etc., the difference information indicating that the procurement conditions are not met is provided. Generate.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can estimate future meat transaction status (future meat supply amount, future meat price), basic statistics, and difference information for each wholesale market.
  • the display unit 151 has a function of displaying the future meat status (future meat supply amount, future meat price), basic statistics, and difference information at the desired procurement time calculated by the calculation unit 141 so that the operator can confirm them. There is.
  • the information that can be displayed on the display unit 151 can also be displayed on the output unit 212 of the information terminal 201 via the network NW.
  • the information terminal 201 is a device such as a PC, a smartphone, a tablet PC, and a mobile phone.
  • the information terminal 201 may access the meat transaction status estimation server 101 by the dedicated application software installed on the terminal. Further, the meat transaction status estimation server 101 may be accessed by using the operating environment (API (application programming interface), platform, etc.) provided by the meat transaction status estimation server 101.
  • API application programming interface
  • the input unit 211 is a device capable of inputting and selecting information by being operated by a user such as a keyboard, a mouse, or a touch pad. Further, a touch panel integrated with an output unit 212 such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL display in a smartphone, tablet, or PC may be used. The input unit 211 may be a voice input device. The input unit 211 is not limited to the direct input by the user, but may accept the indirect input via another system.
  • the output unit 212 is a display device or the like that displays information or the like to the user. It may be a display device independent of the information terminal 201, or it may be a display device such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL display in a smartphone or tablet.
  • the output unit 212 can display display data such as the meat transaction status estimation result from the meat transaction status estimation server 101.
  • the information terminal 201 may be configured as an integral part of the meat transaction status estimation server 101 without going through a network.
  • FIG. 3 shows a flowchart showing a meat transaction status estimation routine executed by the calculation unit 141 of the meat transaction status estimation server 101.
  • the meat transaction status estimation method of the present embodiment will be described based on the same flowchart.
  • step S10 the calculation unit 141 acquires the meat procurement conditions input by the input unit 211 of the information terminal 201 via the network NW (procurement condition acquisition step).
  • the procurement conditions for example, the grade, the desired procurement time, the desired procurement amount, and the desired procurement price are input.
  • the calculation unit 141 estimates the future shipment status of the pork corresponding to the procurement conditions by the shipment status estimation unit 142 (shipment status estimation step). Specifically, the shipping status estimation unit 142 identifies the current breeding status of the pigs corresponding to the procurement conditions from the livestock information DB 121 from the breeding pig information, and also from the past pig information, the meat pigs corresponding to the procurement conditions. Identify past shipping status. Then, using the identified tendency of the past shipment status as a benchmark, the future shipment time, the number of future shipments, the future grade, and the future meat quality of the currently bred pork are estimated as the future shipment status. In addition, for sows that meet the procurement conditions, the future shipment status of meat pigs (number of pigs) that are expected to give birth in the future is estimated using past sow information as a benchmark.
  • step S12 the calculation unit 141 acquires the future shipment status estimated in step S11 by the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 and the meat transaction information stored in the market information DB 132 (market information acquisition step). Estimate the future meat transaction status including the future meat supply amount and future meat price for each grade at the desired procurement time of the procurement conditions (meat transaction status estimation step). For example, the future meat supply amount is estimated from the trend of the carcass transaction amount in the meat transaction information. For the future meat price, the price elasticity is calculated from the carcass transaction volume and the transaction price trend of the meat transaction information, and the future meat price is estimated based on the price elasticity. This future meat trading situation is estimated for each of multiple wholesale markets.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 corrects the future shipment status of the meat pigs (number of pigs) estimated in step S11 above by using the piglet transaction volume of the piglet transaction information. Specifically, for example, when the transaction volume in the piglet market Mb1 fluctuates, the time-series relationship (time lag and quantitative relationship between shipments) between the piglet market Mb1 and the shipment volume in multiple wholesale markets before that is changed. Based on this, the number of meat pigs shipped to the wholesale market is estimated.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 calculates a basic statistic for the estimated future meat price from the tendency of the meat price in the meat transaction information. Specifically, the average value, standard deviation, and quartile of future meat prices in the application period based on the desired procurement time are calculated.
  • the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 compares the procurement conditions with the future meat transaction status, and generates a portion having a difference as difference information.
  • step S15 the calculation unit 141 generated the future meat transaction status estimated in step S12, the basic statistics for the future meat price calculated in step S13, and the output unit 212 of the information terminal 201 on the display unit 151 or the output unit 212 of the information terminal 201 in step S14. Display the difference information and end the routine. The future meat transaction status, basic statistics, and difference information will be displayed for each wholesale market.
  • the retailer can grasp in advance whether or not the desired meat can be procured and the procurement cost. can do. If the meat cannot be procured as desired, the retailer can consider other means such as overseas procurement, advance purchase, and change of production plan on the retailer side accordingly.
  • the meat transaction status estimation system 1 including the meat transaction status estimation server 101 according to the present embodiment estimates the future shipment status of meat pigs to the wholesale market, and estimates the future shipment status of meat pigs in the wholesale markets Ma1, Ma2, and Ma3.
  • the future meat supply at the retailer's desired procurement time is estimated in consideration of transaction trends. As a result, the retailer can grasp whether or not the meat can be procured as desired, and can improve the stability in the future procurement implementation.
  • the domestic livestock information includes information on the number of pigs raised based on livestock statistics as the livestock breeding status, so that the scale of the entire livestock market can be grasped and the future shipment status of livestock can be estimated. can do.
  • the domestic livestock information includes information on the pigs raised on individual farms, it is possible to grasp the breeding status of the pigs in more detail and improve the estimation accuracy of the future shipment status of the livestock. be able to.
  • piglet trading information including piglet trading volume as market information
  • more accurate future meat status including piglet trading status in piglet markets Mb1, Mb2, and Mb3 is estimated. be able to.
  • the retailer can grasp the procurement cost and the future. Improve stability in procurement implementation.
  • the retailer can easily grasp the factors that do not satisfy the desired procurement conditions.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 As described above, according to the meat transaction status estimation server 101, the meat transaction status estimation method, and the meat transaction status estimation program according to the present embodiment, the future for the consumers who procure the meat Stability in procurement implementation can be improved.
  • FIG. 4 is a schematic block diagram showing the configuration of the computer 801.
  • the computer 801 includes a CPU 802, a main storage device 803, an auxiliary storage device 804, and an interface 805.
  • the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is mounted on the computer 801. Then, the operation of each component of the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is stored in the auxiliary storage device 804 in the form of a program.
  • the CPU 802 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 804, expands it to the main storage device 803, and executes the above processing according to the program. Further, the CPU 802 secures a storage area corresponding to the above-mentioned storage unit in the main storage device 803 according to the program.
  • the program includes a procurement condition acquisition step for acquiring procurement conditions including the desired procurement time of the meat to be procured on the computer 801 and information on the breeding status of the livestock corresponding to the meat.
  • a shipping status estimation step for estimating the future shipping status of the livestock using information and past livestock information including information on the feeding status of the livestock raised in the past, and the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market of the livestock.
  • the market information acquisition step for acquiring market information including meat transaction information including information about, and the future shipment status and the meat transaction information, the future meat transaction status including the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time can be obtained. It is a program that executes the estimation step of estimating the meat transaction status by a computer.
  • the auxiliary storage device 804 is an example of a tangible medium that is not temporary.
  • Other examples of non-temporary tangible media include magnetic disks, magneto-optical disks, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMs, semiconductor memories, etc. connected via interface 805.
  • the distributed computer 801 may expand the program to the main storage device 803 and execute the above processing.
  • the program may be for realizing a part of the above-mentioned functions. Further, the program realizes the above-mentioned function in combination with another program already stored in the auxiliary storage device 804, that is, a so-called difference file (difference program). It may be.
  • Meat transaction status estimation system 101 Meat transaction status estimation server 111 . Procurement condition acquisition unit 121 ... Livestock information DB 131 ... Market information acquisition department 132 ... Market information DB 141 ... Calculation unit 142 ... Shipment status estimation unit 143 ... Meat transaction status estimation unit 151 ... Display unit 801 ... Computer 802 ... CPU 803 ... Main storage device 804 ... Auxiliary storage device 805 ... Interface

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PCT/JP2020/037367 2019-12-16 2020-09-30 食肉取引状況推定システム、食肉取引状況推定サーバ、食肉取引状況推定方法、及び食肉取引状況推定プログラム WO2021124643A1 (ja)

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JPH11353364A (ja) * 1998-06-08 1999-12-24 Hitachi Ltd 商品の出荷先及び、出荷数量の決定方法
JP2008117410A (ja) * 2001-12-28 2008-05-22 Hitachi Ltd 卸売方法
JP2005275648A (ja) * 2004-03-24 2005-10-06 Gifu Prefecture 品質情報を用いた動植物の競売システム及びその競売プログラム
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