WO2020151294A1 - 改进的行程时间可靠性分析方法 - Google Patents
改进的行程时间可靠性分析方法 Download PDFInfo
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- WO2020151294A1 WO2020151294A1 PCT/CN2019/115054 CN2019115054W WO2020151294A1 WO 2020151294 A1 WO2020151294 A1 WO 2020151294A1 CN 2019115054 W CN2019115054 W CN 2019115054W WO 2020151294 A1 WO2020151294 A1 WO 2020151294A1
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- travel time
- ttr
- estimation
- interval
- test
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
- G08G1/0129—Traffic data processing for creating historical data or processing based on historical data
Definitions
- the invention relates to an improved travel time reliability analysis method.
- Travel time is widely used to evaluate the efficiency of expressways, urban roads and residents. In the past two decades, many mathematical models have been used to improve the accuracy of travel time. But travel time cannot accurately describe the characteristics of residents' travel and road traffic. Travel time reliability is proposed as a supplement to travel time. It plays an important role in assisting the public's travel, transportation planning, management and control decision-making, and is mainly manifested in: (1) Important indicators serving travelers' travel mode and travel route selection; (2) It can be used as a road grade management index; (3) As a reference index for macro-regional traffic planning.
- travel time reliability indicators are mainly based on average travel time and percentile travel time (such as 90% or 95% travel time, buffer time index, planning time index). These indicators are based on time. Easy to understand and use by travelers.
- the main method of travel time reliability estimation is point estimation of reliability index. However, considering the current technical means and coverage of traffic data collection, it is difficult to obtain the true value data of travel time, which brings about the problem of accuracy evaluation of travel time reliability estimation.
- the purpose of the present invention is to provide an improved travel time reliability analysis method to solve the problem of how to evaluate the accuracy of travel time reliability estimation because it is difficult to obtain true travel time data in the prior art. .
- An improved travel time reliability analysis method including the following steps,
- TT agg (t ⁇ ) F(TT t1 ,...,TT ti ,...,TT tN ), where F (*) is the median function, TT agg (t ⁇ ) is the aggregate value of the travel time, and TT ti is the travel time of the vehicle that leaves at the time ti;
- TTR TTR mean And standard deviation SE
- the travel time reliability index includes standard deviation SD, covariance COV, buffer time index BI, and planning time index PI.
- step S6 the testing method for testing whether the TTR conforms to the normal distribution adopts Q-Q graph method, K-S test, and Shapiro-Wilk test.
- the point estimate includes the mean value of TTR And standard deviation SE(TTR).
- the interval estimator includes a standard error interval, a percentile interval, and an improved percentile interval, specifically,
- Percentile interval PC [TTR ( ⁇ /2) ,TTR (1- ⁇ /2) ], where TTR ( ⁇ ) is the ⁇ quantile;
- ⁇ (*) is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution
- ⁇ -1 (*) is the inverse function of the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution
- num(*) represents the sample size that meets the conditions.
- This improved travel time reliability analysis method is different from the traditional single estimated value of reliability index.
- the reliability analysis method of the present invention outputs a reliability index estimation interval, which is compared with the estimated value of reliability index points.
- the confidence interval describes the reliability of travel time more comprehensively, and the upper limit of the interval is also more realistic in applications such as guidance release and traffic planning.
- the improved travel time reliability analysis method of the present invention checks whether the travel time has seasonal and monthly differences, and uses the Bootstrap method to determine the accuracy of the travel time reliability index Analyze, output the point estimate and interval estimate of the reliability index, and fully describe the travel time reliability.
- the improved travel time reliability analysis method of the present invention supplements the point estimation of commonly used travel time reliability indicators on the basis of the Bootstrap repeated sampling method, and implements standard errors, percentiles, and improvement percentages. Bit interval estimation, thereby providing the confidence interval of the reliability index.
- Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of an improved travel time reliability analysis method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
- Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the test results of Bonferroni's modified K-S detection method in the embodiment.
- Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the probability distribution of travel time in an embodiment.
- An improved travel time reliability analysis method includes the following steps:
- TT agg (t ⁇ ) F(TT t1 ,...,TT ti ,...,TT tN ), where F (*) is the median function, TT agg (t ⁇ ) is the aggregate value of the travel time, and TT ti is the travel time of the vehicle that leaves at the time ti.
- test method can be QQ graph method, KS Inspection, Shapiro-Wilk inspection;
- interval estimators include:
- z ⁇ and z 1- ⁇ are the quantiles of the standard normal distribution at ⁇ and 1- ⁇ respectively.
- ⁇ (*) is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution
- ⁇ -1 (*) is the inverse function of the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution
- num(*) represents the sample size that meets the conditions;
- step S6 is executed again.
- This improved travel time reliability analysis method is different from the traditional single estimated value of reliability index.
- the reliability analysis method of the present invention outputs an estimated interval of reliability index, which is compared with the estimated value of reliability index point.
- the description of travel time reliability is more comprehensive, and the upper limit of interval is also more realistic in applications such as guidance release and traffic planning.
- This improved travel time reliability analysis method strengthens the accuracy evaluation of travel time reliability estimation. Based on the estimation of travel time reliability index points, the confidence interval is analyzed, so that the travel time reliability can be more comprehensive
- the upper limit of interval estimation is also an important reference in applications such as traffic guidance, route selection, and traffic planning.
- the improved travel time reliability analysis method of the embodiment adds the analysis of the influence of time factor on reliability in the process of travel time reliability estimation.
- Bonferroni modified KS detection method is used to analyze the influence of seasons and months on travel time reliability. influences.
- the travel time reliability estimation of a certain route on a certain expressway is taken as an example, and the details are as follows:
- the self-sampling method (Bootstrap method) is used to sample the travel time estimation sample with replacement, and statistical reliability accuracy indicators: standard deviation SD, covariance COV, reserved time index BI, and planned time index PI.
Abstract
Description
Claims (7)
- 一种改进的行程时间可靠性分析方法,其特征在于:包括以下步骤,S1、构建路段行程时间估计模型,基于路段上下游交通流检测器输出的参数检测数据,估计任一给定时刻ti驶离的车辆在路段的行程时间TT ti;S2、对行程时间数据进行汇集,减少交通流参数波动性对可靠性的影响;汇集策略为:TT agg(t α)=F(TT t1,…,TT ti,…,TT tN),其中F(*)为中值函数,TT agg(t α)为行程时间的汇集值,TT ti为在ti时刻驶离的车辆在路段的行程时间;S3、对包含不同月份以及季度的行程时间估计数据样本进行子集划分,生成S个子集,并采用Bonferroni修正的K-S检验法对多个行程时间数据子集间是否具有明显差异进行统计检验;若检验结论为不具有明显差异,则表明行程时间不具有月度或季度的时间差异性特征;否则,则说明时间特征会影响模型对行程时间估计的可靠性;S4、用对数正态分布拟合行程时间的分布;采用最大期望算法进行参数标定;S5、采用Bootstrap自抽样法对行程时间估计样本进行有放回抽样;进行M轮重复抽样,得到M个行程时间估计样本的子数据集TTS m,m=1,2,…,M;计算每个数据子集行程时间可靠性指标TTR m;
- 如权利要求1所述的改进的行程时间可靠性分析方法,其特征在于:步骤S3中,采用Bonferroni修正的K-S检验法对S个行程时间数据子集间是否具有明显差异进行统计检验,具体为,对任两个数据子集进行K-S检验,检验次数V=S(S-1)/2,确定显著性水平α,计算局部显著性水平α local=α/V,计算多重比较谬误FWER=U/V,其中U为检验后的第I类错误数;若检验结论为不具有明显差异,则表明行程时间不具有月度或季度的时间差异性特征,否则说明时间特征会影响模型对行程时间估计的可靠性;结束检验进入步骤S4。
- 如权利要求1-3任一项所述的改进的行程时间可靠性分析方法,其特征在于:步骤S5中,行程时间可靠性指标包括标准差SD、协方差COV、缓冲时间指数BI、计划时间指数PI。
- 如权利要求1-3任一项所述的改进的行程时间可靠性分析方法,其特征在于:步骤S6中,检验TTR是否符合正态分布的检验方法采用Q-Q图法、K-S检验、Shapiro-Wilk检验。
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CN110288849B (zh) * | 2019-07-29 | 2020-05-29 | 电子科技大学 | 一种基于混合交通模式的出行路线推荐方法 |
CN111192454B (zh) * | 2020-01-07 | 2021-06-01 | 中山大学 | 基于行程时间演化的交通异常识别方法、系统及存储介质 |
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