WO2015096153A1

WO2015096153A1 - Grid security risk assessment method and model based on situation awareness

Info

Publication number: WO2015096153A1
Application number: PCT/CN2013/090752
Authority: WO
Inventors: 李文云; 陈汝昌; 蒋亚坤; 陈飞; 雷炳银; 张海辉
Original assignee: 云南电力调度控制中心; 易能（中国）电力科技有限公司
Priority date: 2013-12-24
Filing date: 2013-12-27
Publication date: 2015-07-02
Also published as: CN103679296A

Abstract

The present invention provides a grid security risk assessment method and model based on situation awareness. A decision-making objective of a dispatcher serves as a core, and a situation awareness technology is used in grid security risk assessment, so that the ability of being actively aware of a prospective grid situation and the blackout security defense ability of the dispatcher are greatly improved, and the asset utilization rate of grid resources can be improved, thereby achieving the objective of making a smart grid strong, economical, secure and superior. The method of the present invention comprises: a first step: perceiving a grid situation; a second step: understanding the grid situation; and a third step: forecasting the grid situation.

Description

Situational awareness based grid security risk assessment method and model

Technical field

The invention relates to the technical field of smart grid security risk assessment, in particular to a method and model for grid security risk assessment based on situational awareness. Background technique

Situational awareness technology was first used in aviation, aerospace and other fields where operators need to quickly understand the surrounding conditions, correct decision-making and operation. With the gradual maturity of theory and methods, in recent years, it has developed into a human-machine-environment complex system such as electric power and medical care. . The most straightforward definition of situational awareness is knowing what is happening around you, that is, perceiving, understanding, and predicting the surrounding environment in time and space. The application of situational awareness technology to the power system refers to a series of actions in which the dispatcher can acquire, understand, display and predict the future situation of the elements that can cause changes in the security posture of the power grid. The situation is a state and trend, including the current state, the development state, the capability state, the controllable state, and the evaluation state. The grid situation is the current grid state and change trend composed of various grid equipment operating states and user behaviors. The dispatchers fully understand the grid security status through the dependence of different situationalities. The grid situation has an overall and global concept. Grid situational awareness refers to the acquisition, understanding, display and prediction of future development trends in the grid environment for safety factors that can cause changes in the grid situation. The core idea of grid situational awareness is to face the decision-making goal. Through the extraction of the current situation elements of the grid, the understanding and assessment of the situation, the capability state of the grid, the controllable state, and the future development situation, it can be based on the current system state, based on the user. The selection and judgment of the operation automatically provide data and decision information related to the task to meet the situational awareness and decision support requirements in the mission process. The purpose is to proactively sense the power grid operation situation and improve the active security defense capability of the power grid.

At present, in the face of UHV AC-DC interconnection, long-distance, large-capacity, large-area interconnected modern power systems, dispatchers can resist the impact of harsh environments and extreme weather, and look forward to the comprehensive situation of time, space and environmental security. It is a key issue that needs to be solved urgently in intelligent scheduling. Due to the complexity of the grid situation, the current grid security risk assessment is based on the expected accident set to establish a security risk assessment model and risk indicator analysis, which is passive perception, can not comprehensively understand the grid security situation from the overall time and space, and insufficient support for the dispatcher's decision support; Due to the timeliness and separation of real-time, online and offline data information processing, dispatchers can only obtain local data and information, and can not fully understand the security system security risk situation in real time. Summary of the invention

In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention proposes a situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method and model, with the dispatcher's decision-making target as the core, and the situational awareness technology applied to the grid security risk assessment, and the forward-aware anomaly loop replacement page. (Article 26) The safety risk of the power grid under the environment enables the dispatcher-grid-environment to form a closed loop system of grid security assisted decision-making, which greatly improves the dispatcher's proactive and forward-looking power grid capability and the power outage security defense capability, and can improve the grid asset utilization and realize intelligence. The grid's strong, economic, safe, and high-quality goals. The technical solution of the present invention - a situational awareness-based power grid security risk assessment method, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:

The first step: Perceive the grid situation: According to the target of the grid security risk assessment, obtain the meteorological environment monitoring data of the grid, the real-time grid operation situation data, the real-time grid equipment status data, and complete the real-time power data and online of the grid equipment safety risk assessment. Time-space data fusion of environmental data to obtain real-time situational data of grid equipment security risks;

The second step: understanding the power grid situation: Identify the abnormal data of the meteorological environment monitoring and the equipment flow limit component; according to the obtained real-time situation data of the safety risk of the power grid equipment, calculate the situation index, and judge whether the indicator exceeds the preset The safety threshold is recognized as a risk equipment component once it exceeds the preset safety threshold; N-1 safety check is performed on the risk equipment component, and the sensitivity analysis calculation is started for the equipment component that has not passed the N-1 safety check. ;

The third step: predicting the grid situation: Through the sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis results, the grid security situation is predicted and the security risk response strategy and safety margin adjustment strategy are determined to provide the dispatcher with a higher level of grid security prediction and auxiliary decision information.

In the first step, the obtained real-time situation data of the security risk of the grid equipment includes abnormal weather data, grid safety operation data, grid equipment component data, and coping strategy & knowledge data.

In the second step, the situation indicator calculation includes displaying the current state, the development state, and the capability state of the power grid in an abnormal environment, and evaluating the current security risk situation by using three indicators: a health state probability, a warning state probability, and a fault state probability. The tidal current safety probability, the tidal current overload probability, and the tidal current overload load shedding probability are used to evaluate the security risk development trend. The tidal current safety margin is used to evaluate the resistance capability situation, and the grid equipment state trends at different time periods are displayed.

In the second step, the sensitivity analysis calculation includes performing sensitivity calculation on the influence degree of the device component power flow that has not passed the safety check on the bus of the plant station.

In the third step, the grid security situation map is used to display the current state, development state, and capability state of the grid in an abnormal environment, and display the state trend of the grid equipment at different time periods, comprehensively track and understand the security posture of the grid, and make security defense decisions and take costs. The lowest correct action. A situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model, characterized in that the model data is divided into three layers, namely a perceptual situation data layer, an understanding situation data layer and a prediction situation data layer; the perceptual situation data layer includes Abnormal weather data, grid safety operational data, grid equipment component data, and coping strategies & knowledge data; The Competing Situations Replacement Page (Rule 26) The data layer includes system power flow calculation data, power grid N-1 check data, mountain fire lightning icing degree data, and safety margin calculation data; the predicted situation data layer includes instability risk data, sensitivity analysis data, and uncontrollable risk data. The data of the sensing situation data layer is derived from the device component database, the grid model database, the device component expected fault library, the risk response strategy library, and the data of the obtained grid security risk is merged with the monitored meteorological environment information and Data obtained after information fusion; the data of the understanding situation data layer is data that reorganizes and classifies the data of the sensing situation data layer against the risk assessment target of the grid security, and performs secondary generation of feature fusion; the predicted situation data The layer data is a higher level of grid security prediction and decision-making that will be obtained by understanding the data of the situation data layer.

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The main data of the grid security risk acquired by the sensing situation data layer includes:

1) current power system safety monitoring information, meteorological environment information, safety analysis information;

2) Power system load forecasting information, equipment maintenance information, equipment life cycle information;

3) Anticipating equipment failure information;

4) current action information;

5) Current action objectives and priority information, including current action goals, sub-goals, tasks, and time.

The understanding situation data layer should provide the power flow over-limit component identification information, severe weather severity and Ν-1 security check, assist the dispatcher to identify the current device security risk, the development device security risk, and the capability state security defense. ability.

The predicted situation data layer is based on the sensitivity analysis. The grid security situation map is used to display the current state, development state, and capability state of the grid in an abnormal environment, and display the status trend and action of the grid equipment in different time periods.

The technical effect of the invention:

The present invention proposes a situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method and model, with the dispatcher's decision-making goal as the core, applies the situational awareness technology to the grid security risk assessment, and more closely integrates the dispatcher-grid equipment-environment. Integrate real-time data, online data and offline data to form a set of power system security situational awareness methods and models, and to prospectively sense the grid security risks in an abnormal environment, so that the dispatcher-grid-environment forms a grid-safety decision-making closed-loop system, greatly improving The dispatchers actively look forward to the power grid capability and the power outage security defense capability, and can improve the grid asset utilization rate and achieve the strong, economic, safe and high-quality goals of the smart grid.

The invention uses the dispatcher-grid-environment as a large system, and according to the grid security risk prevention target, real-time scans the environmental information such as mountain fire, lightning, ice weather, etc., and the current situation of the power flow, combined with the current equipment state, automatically Conduct a device security risk assessment and propose a decision-making method for coping strategies. The invention patent combines the situational awareness method, the N-1 safety check and the sensitivity analysis method, and actively evaluates the potential replacement page such as the trend limit, the mountain fire, the lightning, the severity of the ice coating (Article 26) The impact of risk on grid equipment, forward-looking perception of grid security risks. Compared with the usual grid security risk assessment methods (based on simplified mathematical models, calculating security risk indicators, and locally assessing grid security risks), the present invention has the characteristics of active sensing, comprehensive assessment, and rapid assisted decision making. The invention aims at safety assessment decision-making objectives, automatically performs bad weather degree assessment, equipment power flow over-limit identification, N-1 safety check, sensitivity analysis, and displays situational awareness maps to dispatchers, so that dispatchers can comprehensively perceive, understand and predict The current state, future state, and capability state of grid security effectively assist dispatchers in making security defense decisions and taking the right actions at the lowest cost. The situation-aware grid security risk assessment method of the present invention senses the current state by scanning the power flow state, the environmental state, and the device state, and integrates existing advanced power safety analysis application software (such as a weather monitoring system, N-1 security check) System), understanding the state of development and ability. Through the sensitivity analysis, we can identify the vulnerable areas of the power grid, hidden danger lines, and hidden danger equipment, and help the dispatcher to assist decision-making through the situation map.

Advantages of the invention

(1) Scheduling personnel for equipment safety objectives - grid-environmental space-time integration security situational awareness model

Through the device component situation, the present invention comprehensively and comprehensively understands the current grid situation information and evaluates the current & expected action effect information, and analyzes the grid security risks. The traditional grid security risk assessment is based on the expected accident set and mathematical model, which is automatically calculated by the system. It is not only long-term, but also the calculation results can not be used completely by the dispatchers. The invention introduces the dispatcher into the situational awareness assessment method and process, and quickly realizes the perception, understanding and decision-making behavior of the dispatcher's security risk situation through the tracking and evaluation of the current state, development state and capability state of the situation. The situational awareness model of the present invention is highly versatile and scalable.

(2) Efficient data fusion & information fusion

Facing real-time massive data from SCADA and WAMS, online analysis data, and offline analysis data, the present invention solves the problem of inconsistent monitoring data and analysis data that has troubled dispatchers for many years through efficient data fusion & information fusion rules and multi-layer fusion methods. . DRAWINGS

1 is a flow chart of a situational awareness based grid security risk assessment method of the present invention.

2 is a data relationship diagram of a situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model of the present invention.

3 is a diagram of an embodiment of a grid security situation obtained in accordance with the method of the present invention.

Figure 4 shows the sensitivity calculation results for a bus line for all buses. detailed description

The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

As shown in FIG. 1, it is a flowchart of the situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method of the present invention. A situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method, including the following steps:

The first step: Perceive the grid situation: According to the goal of grid security risk assessment, obtain real-time meteorological environment monitoring data (mountain fire, lightning, ice, pollution flash), real-time grid operation situation data, real-time grid equipment status data, and Complete the spatio-temporal data fusion of real-time power data of the grid equipment safety risk assessment with the online environment data (including abnormal environmental data, grid operation data, equipment information), and obtain real-time situation data of grid equipment security risks;

The second step: understanding the power grid situation: Identify the abnormal data of the meteorological environment monitoring and the equipment flow limit component; according to the obtained real-time situation data of the safety risk of the power grid equipment, calculate the situation index, and judge whether the indicator exceeds the preset The safety threshold is recognized as a risk equipment component once it exceeds a preset safety threshold; N-1 safety check is performed on the risk equipment component, and sensitivity analysis calculation is started on the equipment component that has not passed the N-1 safety check;

In the process of sensing the situation of security risk assessment, understanding the situation, and predicting the situation, the dispatcher can track and monitor the whole assessment process, adjust the target deviation of situational awareness in time, understand the deviation and adjust the response behavior deviation in time.

The present invention focuses on three main situations of comprehensively sensing the security risk situation of the power grid: the current state, the development state, and the capability state, and the specific implementation steps include: 1 sensing device, mountain fire, lightning, ice coating, grid state 2, grid operation environment deterioration risk Calculation (mountain fire, lightning, icing severity) 3 power grid equipment component power flow calculation 4 identification safety hazard equipment 5 sensitivity analysis 6 early warning and grid security risk response.

The invention mainly deals with four types of information: real-time grid operating environment data (such as abnormal weather data), real-time grid operation data, grid equipment component information, and response strategy decision information. In the first step, the obtained real-time situation data of the security risk of the grid equipment includes abnormal weather data, grid safety operation data, grid equipment component data, and coping strategy & knowledge data.

In the second step of the present invention, the situation indicator is calculated by using a grid security situation map to display the current state, the development state, and the capability state assessment of the grid in an abnormal environment, and the three indicators of health state probability, alert state probability, and fault state probability are evaluated. The current security risk situation evaluates the security risk development trend by the trend safety probability, the tidal current overload probability, and the tidal overload load shedding probability. The contingency safety margin is used to evaluate the resistance capability situation, and the grid equipment status trend is displayed at different time periods, thereby helping the dispatcher. Under the comprehensive and forward-looking security risks, the priority of the response strategy should be appropriately set to improve the quality and efficiency of decision-making. The invention transmits the real-time power data and the environmental data from the dispatching automation system through the data fusion rule on the existing monitoring system and the business system of the power system; at the same time, the online analysis information from the N-1 security check and the offline information The information is filtered according to the information fusion rules; when the dispatcher performs the situational awareness security risk assessment, based on the same time point, the replacement page (Article 26) Ability to maintain data & information consistency, integrity and security. Fusion rules specify data fusion methods for different sources and structures, fusion periods, fusion times, and fusion formats. If the decision fusion rule is adopted, the DS evidence method is used to obtain the decision source. The decision data source comes from four sources: 1 The degree of environmental anomaly from the real-time bus of the real-time control system, the real-time status of the grid operation, the device status 2 The information bus of the online management information system Equipment maintenance status indicator 3 real-time security check and sensitivity calculation index 4 from dispatcher experience; fusion period is 15 minutes; fusion format adopts xml format; if fusion result index risk probability >50%, then early warning (yellow warning) and Take precautionary measures, if >70%, then red alarm and take the trend transfer plan according to the safety margin indicator. Information fusion is based on the situational awareness data & information correspondence established by SCADA system, wide area measurement system, online and offline information, and matches the same target of different data & information. In the actual fusion process, different fusion registration methods and rules are adopted according to the decision objectives.

The situation indicator is to divide the safe operation state of the system into three states: health, alert, and fault. Health status means that the system can supply power normally (no component overload, voltage and frequency are within the allowable range, and meet the N-1 criterion); alert state means that the system can supply power normally, but does not meet the N-1 criterion; The system cannot supply power normally; the reliability status indicators corresponding to the status include but are not limited to the following three:

1) Probability of health status PHS ( Probabi l i ty of Healthy State )

PHS = ∑Psk (t)

In Ske DH, Psk(t) is the probability that system state Sk is at time t; DH is a set of system states in a healthy state.

2) Probability of Marginal State

PMS = ∑Psk(t)

In the Ske DM formula, Psk(t) is the probability that the system state Sk is at time t; DM is the system state set in the alert state.

3) Probability state probability PRS ( Probabi l i ty of Ri sk State )

PRS = ∑Psk(t)

Ske D

Where Psk ( t ) is the probability that system state Sk is at time t; DR is the system state set in the fault risk state.

The sensitivity analysis is based on the power flow equation of the power system. The differential relationship between the grid parameters is used to evaluate the stability of the grid, and the influence of system components, control methods, and faults on the stability of the grid can be understood. Mainly used to find weak nodes or weak areas of the power grid. The current sensitivity calculation and analysis mainly analyzes the dispatcher's power flow program, analyzes the active power flow of the equipment (line, equipment, etc.) on the active input of the bus, the sensitivity of the active injection amount; the sensitivity of the bus voltage to the equipment.

Replacement page (Article 26) The sensitivity analysis calculation includes the sensitivity calculation of the influence of the equipment component power flow that has not passed the safety check on the bus bar of the plant. As shown in Fig. 4, the sensitivity calculation result of a certain line to all the bus bars is shown.

As shown in FIG. 2, it is a data relationship diagram of the situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model of the present invention.

A situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model, the model data is divided into three layers, namely a perceptual situation data layer, an understanding situation data layer and a predicted situation data layer; the perceptual situation data layer includes abnormal weather data, Grid safety operation data, grid equipment component data, and coping strategy & knowledge data; the understanding situation data layer includes system power flow calculation data, grid N-1 calibration data, mountain fire lightning icing degree data, and safety margin calculation data; The predicted situation data layer includes instability risk data, sensitivity analysis data, and uncontrollable risk data; the data of the sensing situation data layer is derived from a device component database, a grid model database, a device component expected fault library, and a risk response strategy database. The data obtained by integrating the main data of the grid security risk with the meteorological environment information for data fusion and information fusion; the data of the understanding situation data layer is to face the data of the perceived situation data layer facing the grid security assessment risk target Heavy information Classification, data generated by the second feature fusion; trend data of the prediction data is data layer understood trend data layer higher level of network security and auxiliary prediction decision fusion decision information obtained.

Among them, the main data of the grid security risk acquired by the sensing situation data layer includes:

1) Current power system safety monitoring information, meteorological environment information, safety analysis information

2) Power system load forecasting information, equipment maintenance information, equipment life cycle information

3) Predicting device failure information

4) Current action information

5) Current action objectives and priority information (current action target, sub-goal, mission, time)

In the sensing situation data layer, data fusion and information fusion are required. The equipment status information, mountain fire, lightning, ice coating information, and grid operation status information are secondarily integrated according to the requirements of safety check and sensitivity analysis parameters, and real-time situation data of safety risks of power grid equipment are obtained. Deeply integrated security assessment data and information is shared by all dispatch staff.

Understand the situation data layer, based on the underlying sensory data and information fusion, mainly provide the trend-restricted component identification information, severe weather severity and N-1 security check, and assist the dispatcher to identify the current state of the device security risk, the development state of the device Security risk, capability state security defense capabilities.

Predicting the situational data layer, based on a comprehensive understanding of the situation, the dispatcher provides a higher level of grid security prediction and decision-making information for the dispatcher through sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis, such as in bad weather conditions, inspection lines and equipment. Priority and corresponding status, etc.

As shown in Figure 3, it is a grid safety situation map obtained in accordance with the method of the present invention. The dispatcher comprehensively understands and tracks the grid security situation and assists decision making through the grid situational awareness map. The grid security situational awareness map is a comprehensive display of the situation indicators extracted from the situation identification, understanding, and prediction process and the sensitivity analysis results (export EXCEL table). Security assessment situation replacement page (Article 26) The perceptual map shows the system security risk situation (current state, development state, capability state) at each moment in the state of adverse weather conditions (red) and the expected action state. Display the severity of the state in different colors (red

(R), yellow (Y), green (G)). From this figure, the current grid security situation and transitions can be assessed. Not only can we assess the current state, development state, and capability state of grid equipment, but we can also see different actions and their consequences in different situations.

Replacement page (Article 26)

Claims

Claim

A situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method, characterized in that it comprises the following steps: First step: Perceiving grid situation: According to the target of grid security risk assessment, real-time acquisition of meteorological environment monitoring data of the grid, real-time grid operation Situation data, real-time grid equipment status data, and real-time power data of grid equipment safety risk assessment and time-space data of online environment data are fused to obtain real-time situation data of grid equipment security risks;

The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in the first step, the obtained real-time situation data of the security risk of the grid equipment includes abnormal weather data and a grid. Safe operation data, grid equipment component data, and coping strategies & knowledge data.

The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in the second step, the situation indicator calculation comprises displaying a current state, a development state, and a capability state assessment of the power grid in an abnormal environment. The current security risk situation is evaluated by three indicators: health state probability, alert state probability, and fault state probability. The trend of safety risk is evaluated by tidal safety probability, tidal current overload probability, and tidal current overload load shedding probability. Resistance status shows the trend of grid equipment status at different times.

The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in the second step, the sensitivity analysis calculation comprises: a device component power flow that fails the security check to the plant bus The degree of influence is calculated for sensitivity.

The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in the third step, the sensitivity analysis and the situation indicator analysis result are used to display the current state of the grid in an abnormal environment. , development status, capability status, showing the trend of grid equipment status at different time periods, comprehensively tracking and understanding the grid security situation, making security defense decisions and taking the correct actions with the lowest cost.

6. A situational awareness based grid security risk assessment model, characterized in that the model data is divided into three layers, namely a perceptual situation data layer, an understanding situation data layer and a prediction situation data layer; the perceptual situation data Layer includes abnormal weather data, grid safety operation data, grid equipment component data, and coping strategies & knowledge data; The data layer includes system power flow calculation data, power grid N-1 check data, mountain fire lightning icing degree data, and safety margin calculation data; the predicted situation data layer includes instability risk data, sensitivity analysis data, and uncontrollable risk data. The data of the sensing situation data layer is derived from the device component database, the grid model database, the device component expected fault library, the risk response strategy library, and the data of the obtained grid security risk is merged with the monitored meteorological environment information and Data obtained after information fusion; the data of the understanding situation data layer is data that reorganizes and classifies the data of the sensing situation data layer against the risk assessment target of the grid security, and performs secondary generation of feature fusion; the predicted situation data The layer data is a higher level of grid security prediction and decision-making information that will be obtained by understanding the data of the situation data layer.

The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model according to claim 6, wherein the main data of the grid security risk acquired by the sensing situation data layer comprises:

3) Anticipating equipment failure information;

4) current action information;

The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model according to claim 6, wherein the understanding situation data layer mainly provides tidal over-limit component identification information, severe weather severity, and N-1 security check. The auxiliary dispatcher identifies the current equipment security risk, the developmental equipment security risk, and the capability state security defense capability.

9. The situational awareness-based grid security risk assessment model according to claim 6, wherein the predicted situation data layer comprises a grid security situation map, showing a current state, a development state, a capability state, and an indication in an abnormal environment. Trends in grid equipment status at different times.