CN103679296A - Grid security risk assessment method and model based on situation awareness - Google Patents

Grid security risk assessment method and model based on situation awareness Download PDF

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Publication number
CN103679296A
CN103679296A CN201310722279.XA CN201310722279A CN103679296A CN 103679296 A CN103679296 A CN 103679296A CN 201310722279 A CN201310722279 A CN 201310722279A CN 103679296 A CN103679296 A CN 103679296A
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data
situation
security
risk
power grid
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CN201310722279.XA
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李文云
陈汝昌
蒋亚坤
陈飞
雷炳银
张海辉
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云南电力调度控制中心
易能(中国)电力科技有限公司
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply

Abstract

The invention provides a grid security risk assessment method and model based on situation awareness. Decision-making objectives of dispatchers serve as cores, situation awareness technology is applied to grid security risk assessment, active prospective grid situation awareness abilities and blackout security defense abilities of the dispatchers are greatly improved, the asset utilization rate of grids can be increased, and strong, economical, secure and superior objectives of the smart grids are achieved. The method includes the steps: firstly, perceiving grid situations; secondly, understanding the grid situations; thirdly, forecasting the grid situations.

Description

Power grid security methods of risk assessment and model based on Situation Awareness
Technical field
The present invention relates to intelligent grid security risk assessment technical field, particularly relate to a kind of power grid security methods of risk assessment and model based on Situation Awareness.
Background technology
Situation Awareness technology needs operating personnel's fast understanding ambient conditions for Aeronautics and Astronautics etc. the earliest, the field of correct decisions and operation, and the maturation gradually along with theoretical and method, developed into the people-machine-Environment Complex Systems such as electric power, medical treatment in recent years.It is to know you what have occurred, i.e. perception on time and space, understanding and prediction surrounding environment around that Situation Awareness the most directly defines.Situation Awareness technology is applied to electric system, refer in power grid environment, dispatcher to can cause that the key element that power grid security situation changes is obtained, understood, the series action of demonstration and predict future situation.Situation is a kind of state and trend, comprises current state, development state, ability state, controlled state and assessment state.Electrical network situation is current electric network state and the variation tendency consisting of factors such as various grid equipment running statuses and user behaviors, and dispatcher is by the dependence complete understanding power grid security state of different situation, and electrical network situation has whole and overall concept.Electrical network Situation Awareness refers in power grid environment, to can cause that the security factor that electrical network situation changes is obtained, understood, the development trend of demonstration and predict future.The core concept of electrical network Situation Awareness is in the face of decision objective, by the understanding of the extraction of the current situation element of electrical network, situation and assessment, the ability state of electrical network, controlled state, future are predicted, can be according to current system state, selection based on user and the judgement to operation, data and the decision information relevant to task is provided automatically, to meet Situation Awareness and the decision support requirement in task process, object is prediction perception operation of power networks situation, improves electrical network active safety defence capability.
At present, in the face of interconnected, remote, the large capacity of extra-high voltage alternating current-direct current, the interconnected modern power industry system in large region, how dispatcher resists rugged surroundings and extreme hazard weather impact, prediction perception electrical network, in the comprehensive situation of time, space, Environmental security, is in intelligent scheduling, to be badly in need of the key issue of solution.Complicacy due to electrical network situation, power grid security risk assessment at present is mainly set up security risk assessment model and risk indicator analysis based on contingency set, belong to passive perception, can not understand power grid security situation from whole Space-time Integrated, inadequate to the support of dispatcher's aid decision making; And due to ageing and separation property real-time, online, off-line data information processing, dispatcher can only obtain local data and information, in real time comprehensive perception power system security risk situation.
Summary of the invention
The deficiency existing for prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of power grid security methods of risk assessment and model based on Situation Awareness, take yardman's decision objective as core, Situation Awareness technology is applied to power grid security risk assessment, power grid security risk under prediction perception abnormal environment, make dispatcher-electrical network-environment form a power grid security aid decision making closed-loop system, greatly improve dispatcher initiatively look forward to the prospect perception electrical network situation ability and the Prevention-Security ability of having a power failure on a large scale, and can improve power grid asset utilization factor, realize the strong of intelligent grid, economical, safety, the target of high-quality.
Technical solution of the present invention:
A power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
First step: perception electrical network situation: according to the target of power grid security risk assessment, the weather environment Monitoring Data of Real-time Obtaining electrical network, real-time grid operation situation data, real-time grid device status data, and complete the real-time electric power data of grid equipment security risk assessment and the space-time data fusion of online environmental data, obtain grid equipment security risk real-time situation data;
Second step: understand electrical network situation: abnormal data and the out-of-limit element of equipment trend to weather environment monitoring are identified; According to the grid equipment security risk real-time situation data that obtain, carry out the calculating of situation index, judge that whether described index surpasses predefined safe threshold values, once surpass predefined secure threshold, is identified as risk equipment component; Risk equipment component is carried out to N-1 Security Checking, to not by the equipment component of N-1 Security Checking, start sensitivity analysis and calculate;
Third step: prediction electrical network situation: by sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis result, precognition power grid security situation is also determined security risk countermeasure and margin of safety adjustment strategy, for dispatcher provides higher level power grid security prediction and decision-making assistant information.
In described first step, the grid equipment security risk real-time situation data after the fusion of described acquisition comprise anomalous weather data, electric power netting safe running data, grid equipment component data and countermeasure & knowledge data.
In described second step; described situation index is calculated and is comprised the current state of electrical network under displaying abnormal environment, development state, the assessment of ability state; by health status probability, state of alert probability, three index evaluation current safety risk situation of malfunction probability; by trend safe probability, trend overload probability, three assessment security risk developing states of trend overload cutting load probability; by trend Safety Margin resistivity situation, show the grid equipment state trend of different periods.
In described second step, described sensitivity analysis is calculated and is comprised the equipment component trend by safety check is not carried out to Calculation of Sensitivity to the influence degree of plant stand bus.
In described third step; adopt power grid security situation map to show the current state of electrical network under abnormal environment, development state, ability state; show the grid equipment state trend of different periods, follow the tracks of comprehensively and understand power grid security situation, carry out Prevention-Security decision-making and take the correct action that cost is minimum.
A power grid security risk evaluation model based on Situation Awareness, is characterized in that, the data of described model are divided into three layers, is respectively perception situation data Layer, understands situation data Layer and predictive situation data Layer; Described perception situation data Layer comprises anomalous weather data, electric power netting safe running data, grid equipment component data and countermeasure & knowledge data; Describedly understand situation data Layer and comprise that system load flow computational data, electrical network N-1 check data, mountain fire thunder and lightning icing level data and margin of safety computational data; Described predictive situation data Layer comprises unstability risk data, sensitivity analysis data and non-controllable risk data; The data of described perception situation data Layer are to derive from equipment component database, electric network model database, equipment component forecast failure storehouse, risk countermeasure storehouse, by the general data of the power grid security risk of obtaining with monitor weather environment information and carry out the data that obtain after data fusion and information fusion; The described data of understanding situation data Layer are that the data surface of perception situation data Layer is carried out to information restructuring, classification to power grid security assessment risk target, carry out the data of Fusion Features secondary generation; The data of described predictive situation data Layer are that the data of understanding situation data Layer are carried out to higher level power grid security prediction and the decision-making assistant information that Decision fusion obtains.
The general data of the power grid security risk that described perception situation data Layer obtains, comprising:
1) current power security of system monitoring information, weather environment information, safety analysis information;
2) Load Prediction In Power Systems information, overhaul of the equipments information, life period of equipment information;
3) anticipation device fault information;
4) current action message;
5) current line moving-target and precedence information, comprise current line moving-target, sub-goal, task, time.
Describedly understand situation data Layer the out-of-limit element identification information of trend, the inclement weather order of severity and N-1 Security Checking will be provided, the device security risk of the current state of auxiliary dispatching personal identification, the development device security risk of state are, the Prevention-Security ability of ability state.
Described predictive situation data Layer is on the basis of sensitivity analysis, by power grid security situation map, shows the current state of electrical network under abnormal environment, development state, ability state, shows the grid equipment state trend of different periods and the action of taking.
The technology of the present invention effect:
A kind of power grid security methods of risk assessment and model based on Situation Awareness that the present invention proposes, yardman's the decision objective of take is core, Situation Awareness technology is applied to power grid security risk assessment, dispatcher-grid equipment-environment is combined closely more, merge real time data, online data and off-line data, form a set of power system security Situation Awareness method and model, power grid security risk under prediction perception abnormal environment, make dispatcher-electrical network-environment form a power grid security aid decision making closed-loop system, greatly improve dispatcher initiatively look forward to the prospect perception electrical network situation ability and the Prevention-Security ability of having a power failure on a large scale, and can improve power grid asset utilization factor, realize the strong of intelligent grid, economical, safety, the target of high-quality.
The present invention is using yardman-electrical network-environment as a large system, according to power grid security Risk-recovery target, the operation of power networks situation data such as the environmental informations such as real time scan mountain fire, thunder and lightning, icing meteorology, trend are out-of-limit, in conjunction with current device state, automatically carry out the aid decision-making method of device security risk assessment and proposition countermeasure.Patent of the present invention is by Situation Awareness method, N-1 Security Checking and Sensitivity Analysis Method combination; initiatively assess that trend is out-of-limit, the impact of the potential risks such as the order of severity of mountain fire, thunder and lightning, icing on grid equipment, power grid security risk under prediction perception abnormal environment.Compare common power grid security methods of risk assessment (based on simplifying mathematical model, computationally secure risk indicator, local assessment power grid security risk), the present invention has the feature of active perception, comprehensive assessment, quick aid decision making.The present invention is towards safety assessment decision objective, automatically carry out the assessment of inclement weather degree, the out-of-limit identification of equipment trend, N-1 Security Checking, sensitivity analysis, by Situation Awareness, figure shows dispatcher, make the current state of dispatcher's perception comprehensively, understanding, prediction power grid security, following state and ability state, effectively auxiliary dispatching person carries out Prevention-Security decision-making and takes the correct action that cost is minimum.Power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness of the present invention, by scanning electric network swim state, ambient condition and equipment state, the current state of perception, merge existing senior electric power safety application software for XRF analysis (as weather monitoring system, N-1 Security Checking system), understand development state and ability state.By sensitivity analysis, look forward to the prospect and identify electrical network weak section, hidden danger circuit, hidden danger equipment, by situation map, help yardman's aid decision making.
Advantage of the present invention
(1) the security postures sensor model of the dispatcher-electrical network of equipment oriented Security Target-environment space-time integrated
The present invention, by equipment component situation, understands all sidedly in real time current electrical network situation information and assesses current & anticipatory action effect information, analyzes power grid security hidden danger.Traditional power grid security risk assessment, based on contingency set and mathematical model, is calculated generation automatically by system, not only the time long, and result of calculation can not to be entirely dispatcher used.The present invention introduces dispatcher in Situation Awareness appraisal procedure and process, and tracking and assessment by the current state of situation, development state, ability state, realize the assessment of dispatcher to the perception of power grid security risk situation, understanding and decision behavior fast.Situation Awareness model of the present invention has very strong Universal and scalability.
(2) efficient data fusion & information fusion
In the face of real time mass data, on-line analysis data, the off-line analysis data from SCADA, WAMS, the present invention, by efficient data fusion & information fusion rule and multilayer fusion method, has solved puzzlement yardman monitor data for many years and has analyzed the inconsistent difficult problem of data.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the power grid security risk evaluation model entity relationship diagram based on Situation Awareness of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is that the power grid security situation that the method according to this invention obtains is implemented illustration.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, embodiments of the invention are further described.
As shown in Figure 1, be the process flow diagram of the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness of the present invention.
A power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness, comprises the following steps:
First step: perception electrical network situation: according to the target of power grid security risk assessment, the weather environment Monitoring Data of Real-time Obtaining electrical network (mountain fire, thunder and lightning, icing, pollution flashover), real-time grid operation situation data, real-time grid device status data, and complete the real-time electric power data of grid equipment security risk assessment and the space-time data fusion (comprising abnormal environment data, operation of power networks data, facility information) of online environmental data, obtain grid equipment security risk real-time situation data;
Second step: understand electrical network situation: abnormal data and the out-of-limit element of equipment trend to weather environment monitoring are identified; According to the grid equipment security risk real-time situation data that obtain, carry out the calculating of situation index, judge that whether described index surpasses predefined safe threshold values, once surpass predefined secure threshold, is identified as risk equipment component; Risk equipment component is carried out to N-1 Security Checking, to not by the equipment component of N-1 Security Checking, start sensitivity analysis and calculate;
Third step: prediction electrical network situation: by sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis result, precognition power grid security situation is also determined security risk countermeasure and margin of safety adjustment strategy, for dispatcher provides higher level power grid security prediction and decision-making assistant information.
In the perception situation of security risk assessment, understand in the process of situation, predictive situation, dispatcher can with whole evaluation process in follow the tracks of and monitoring, adjust in time Situation Awareness target deviation, understand deviation and adjust in time coping behavior deviation.
Emphasis of the present invention is three kinds of main situation of comprehensive perception power grid security risk situation: current state, development state, ability state, specific implementation step comprise 1. awareness apparatus, mountain fire, thunder and lightning, icing, electric network state 2. operation of power networks ecological deterioration Risk Calculation (mountain fire, thunder and lightning, the icing order of severity) 3. grid equipment element trend calculate and 4. identify 5. 6. early warning the reply of power grid security risk of sensitivity analysis of potential safety hazard equipment.
The present invention mainly processes four category informations: real-time grid running environment data (as anomalous weather data), real-time grid service data, grid equipment component information, countermeasure decision information.In described first step, the grid equipment security risk real-time situation data after the fusion of described acquisition comprise anomalous weather data, electric power netting safe running data, grid equipment component data and countermeasure & knowledge data.
In second step of the present invention, described situation index is calculated and is adopted power grid security situation map to show the current state of electrical network under abnormal environment, development state, the assessment of ability state, by health status probability, state of alert probability, three index evaluation current safety risk situation of malfunction probability, by trend safe probability, trend overload probability, three assessment security risk developing states of trend overload cutting load probability, by trend Safety Margin resistivity situation, the grid equipment state trend that shows the different periods, thereby help dispatcher looking forward to the prospect under aware security risk comprehensively, rationally set countermeasure priority, improve Decision Quality and efficiency.
The present invention is on the existing supervisory system of electric system and operation system, and the real-time electric power data of self scheduling automated system and environmental data are processed through data fusion Rules Filtering in the future; Meanwhile, will according to information fusion Rules Filtering, process from the line analytical information such as N-1 safety check and information off-line; When yardman carries out Situation Awareness security risk assessment, based on point at the same time, can keep data & consistency on messaging, integrality and security, fusion rule is stipulated data fusion mode, fusion cycle, time of fusion, fusion form of not homology, different structure etc.As adopt Decision fusion regular, adopt D-S means of proof to obtain decision-making source, decision data source is from four fusion sources: 1. from the environmental abnormality degree of real-time control system real-time bus, operation of power networks real-time status, equipment state 2. the bus of online management infosystem overhaul of the equipments state index 3. actual time safety check and Calculation of Sensitivity index 4. from yardman's experience; Fusion cycle is 15 minutes; Merge form and adopt xml form; If the index risk probability >50% of fusion results, early warning (yellow early warning) also takes preventive measures, if >70%, red alarm take trend transfer scheme etc. according to security margin index.Information fusion is based on SCADA system, WAMS, the Situation Awareness data & information corresponding relation that online, information off-line is set up, and the same target of different pieces of information & information is mated.In actual fusion process, according to decision objective, adopt different fusion method for registering and rule.
Situation index is that system safety operation state is divided into health, warning, three kinds of states of fault.Health status refer to that system can normal power supply (without element overload, voltage and frequency all in allowed band, and meet N-1 criterion); The state of alert refers to that system can normal power supply, but does not meet N-1 criterion; Malfunction refers to that system cannot normal power supply; The reliability state class index corresponding with state includes but not limited to following three:
1) health status probability P HS(Probability of Healthy State)
PHS = Σ Sk ∈ D H P Sk ( t )
In formula, be Psk(t) that system state Sk is at t probability constantly; DH is the system state set in health status.
2) state of alert probability (Probability of Marginal State)
PMS = Σ Sk ∈ D M P Sk ( t )
In formula, be Psk(t) that system state Sk is at t probability constantly; DM is the system state set being on the alert.
3) malfunction probability P RS(Probability of Risk State)
PRS = Σ Sk ∈ D R P Sk ( t )
In formula, be Psk(t) that system state Sk is at t probability constantly; DR is the system state set in failure risk state.
Sensitivity analysis is to be based upon on electric power system tide equation basis, by the differential relationship between electrical network parameter, assesses grid stability, can understand the impact on grid stability such as system element, control mode, fault.Be mainly used in finding Weak Node in Power Grid or weakness zone.Current Calculation of Sensitivity and to analyze be mainly by calculating Dispatcher Power Flow program, the meritorious trend of analytical equipment original papers such as () circuit, equipment to bus meritoriously inject, the sensitivity of meritorious injection rate IR; Busbar voltage is to sensitivity of equipment etc.
Sensitivity analysis is calculated and to be comprised the equipment component trend by safety check is not carried out to Calculation of Sensitivity to the influence degree of plant stand bus, if figure below is the Calculation of Sensitivity result of certain circuit to all buses:
As shown in Figure 2, be the power grid security risk evaluation model entity relationship diagram based on Situation Awareness of the present invention.
A power grid security risk evaluation model based on Situation Awareness, the data of described model are divided into three layers, are respectively perception situation data Layers, understand situation data Layer and predictive situation data Layer; Described perception situation data Layer comprises anomalous weather data, electric power netting safe running data, grid equipment component data and countermeasure & knowledge data; Describedly understand situation data Layer and comprise that system load flow computational data, electrical network N-1 check data, mountain fire thunder and lightning icing level data and margin of safety computational data; Described predictive situation data Layer comprises unstability risk data, sensitivity analysis data and non-controllable risk data; The data of described perception situation data Layer are to derive from equipment component database, electric network model database, equipment component forecast failure storehouse, risk countermeasure storehouse, by the general data of the power grid security risk of obtaining with monitor weather environment information and carry out the data that obtain after data fusion and information fusion; The described data of understanding situation data Layer are that the data surface of perception situation data Layer is carried out to information restructuring, classification to power grid security assessment risk target, carry out the data of Fusion Features secondary generation; The data of described predictive situation data Layer are that the data of understanding situation data Layer are carried out to higher level power grid security prediction and the decision-making assistant information that Decision fusion obtains.
Wherein, the general data of the power grid security risk that perception situation data Layer obtains, comprising:
1) current power security of system monitoring information, weather environment information, safety analysis information
2) Load Prediction In Power Systems information, overhaul of the equipments information, life period of equipment information
3) anticipation device fault information
4) current action message
5) current line moving-target and precedence information (current line moving-target, sub-goal, task, time)
At perception situation data Layer, need to carry out data fusion and information fusion.Status information of equipment, mountain fire, thunder and lightning, icing information, operation of power networks status information are carried out to secondary fusion according to Security Checking and sensitivity analysis parameter request, obtain grid equipment security risk real-time situation data.The safety assessment data that the degree of depth merges and information provide shared for all despatching work personnel.
Understand situation data Layer, perception data based on bottom and information fusion, the out-of-limit element identification information of trend, the inclement weather order of severity and N-1 Security Checking are mainly provided, and the device security risk of the current state of auxiliary dispatching personal identification, the development device security risk of state are, the Prevention-Security ability of ability state.
Predictive situation data Layer, complete understanding based on to situation, dispatcher is by sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis, for dispatcher provides higher level power grid security prediction and decision-making assistant information, under in inclement weather conditions, patrol and examine circuit and priority facility and corresponding states etc.
As shown in Figure 3, be the power grid security situation map that the method according to this invention obtains.Dispatcher is by electrical network Situation Awareness figure overall understanding and follow the tracks of power grid security situation aid decision making.Power grid security Situation Awareness figure is the overview display figure (deriving EXCEL table) of the situation index that extracts from situation identification, understanding, forecasting process and sensitivity analysis result.Safety assessment Situation Awareness figure is presented under inclement weather environmental impact state (redness), follows the tracks of the system safety hazards situation (current state, development state, ability state) in each moment and the status of action that corresponding expection is taked.Adopt the order of severity (red (R), yellow (Y), green (G)) of different color show states.From this figure, can assess current power grid security situation and conversion.Not only can assess current state, development state, the ability state of grid equipment, can also find out and under different situation, take difference action and consequence thereof.

Claims (9)

1. the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
First step: perception electrical network situation: according to the target of power grid security risk assessment, the weather environment Monitoring Data of Real-time Obtaining electrical network, real-time grid operation situation data, real-time grid device status data, and complete the real-time electric power data of grid equipment security risk assessment and the space-time data fusion of online environmental data, obtain grid equipment security risk real-time situation data;
Second step: understand electrical network situation: abnormal data and the out-of-limit element of equipment trend to weather environment monitoring are identified; According to the grid equipment security risk real-time situation data that obtain, carry out the calculating of situation index, judge that whether described index surpasses predefined safe threshold values, once surpass predefined secure threshold, is identified as risk equipment component; Risk equipment component is carried out to N-1 Security Checking, to not by the equipment component of N-1 Security Checking, start sensitivity analysis and calculate;
Third step: prediction electrical network situation: by sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis result, precognition power grid security situation is also determined security risk countermeasure and margin of safety adjustment strategy, for dispatcher provides higher level power grid security prediction and decision-making assistant information.
2. the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described first step, the grid equipment security risk real-time situation data after the fusion of described acquisition comprise anomalous weather data, electric power netting safe running data, grid equipment component data and countermeasure & knowledge data.
3. the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described second step, described situation index is calculated and is comprised the current state of electrical network under displaying abnormal environment, development state, the assessment of ability state, by health status probability, state of alert probability, three index evaluation current safety risk situation of malfunction probability, by trend safe probability, trend overload probability, three assessment security risk developing states of trend overload cutting load probability, by trend Safety Margin resistivity situation, the grid equipment state trend that shows the different periods.
4. the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described second step, described sensitivity analysis is calculated and is comprised the equipment component trend by safety check is not carried out to Calculation of Sensitivity to the influence degree of plant stand bus.
5. the power grid security methods of risk assessment based on Situation Awareness according to claim 1; it is characterized in that; in described third step; adopt power grid security situation map to show the current state of electrical network under abnormal environment, development state, ability state sensitivity analysis and situation index analysis result; the grid equipment state trend that shows the different periods; follow the tracks of comprehensively and understand power grid security situation, carrying out Prevention-Security decision-making and take the correct action that cost is minimum.
6. the power grid security risk evaluation model based on Situation Awareness, is characterized in that, the data of described model are divided into three layers, is respectively perception situation data Layer, understands situation data Layer and predictive situation data Layer; Described perception situation data Layer comprises anomalous weather data, electric power netting safe running data, grid equipment component data and countermeasure & knowledge data; Describedly understand situation data Layer and comprise that system load flow computational data, electrical network N-1 check data, mountain fire thunder and lightning icing level data and margin of safety computational data; Described predictive situation data Layer comprises unstability risk data, sensitivity analysis data and non-controllable risk data; The data of described perception situation data Layer are to derive from equipment component database, electric network model database, equipment component forecast failure storehouse, risk countermeasure storehouse, by the general data of the power grid security risk of obtaining with monitor weather environment information and carry out the data that obtain after data fusion and information fusion; The described data of understanding situation data Layer are that the data surface of perception situation data Layer is carried out to information restructuring, classification to power grid security assessment risk target, carry out the data of Fusion Features secondary generation; The data of described predictive situation data Layer are that the data of understanding situation data Layer are carried out to higher level power grid security prediction and the decision-making assistant information that Decision fusion obtains.
7. the power grid security risk evaluation model based on Situation Awareness according to claim 6, is characterized in that, the general data of the power grid security risk that described perception situation data Layer obtains, comprising:
1) current power security of system monitoring information, weather environment information, safety analysis information;
2) Load Prediction In Power Systems information, overhaul of the equipments information, life period of equipment information;
3) anticipation device fault information;
4) current action message;
5) current line moving-target and precedence information, comprise current line moving-target, sub-goal, task, time.
8. the power grid security risk evaluation model based on Situation Awareness according to claim 6, it is characterized in that, describedly understand situation data Layer the out-of-limit element identification information of trend, the inclement weather order of severity and N-1 Security Checking are mainly provided, the device security risk of the current state of auxiliary dispatching personal identification, the development device security risk of state are, the Prevention-Security ability of ability state.
9. the power grid security risk evaluation model based on Situation Awareness according to claim 6; it is characterized in that; described predictive situation data Layer comprises power grid security situation map, shows the current state of electrical network under abnormal environment, development state, ability state, shows the grid equipment state trend of different periods.
CN201310722279.XA 2013-12-24 2013-12-24 Grid security risk assessment method and model based on situation awareness CN103679296A (en)

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CN104680260A (en) * 2015-03-17 2015-06-03 云南电力调度控制中心 Method and system for establishing power grid visualized perceptual model
CN105512957A (en) * 2015-12-10 2016-04-20 国网福建省电力有限公司 Method for evaluating information physical security risks in power system
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