WO2011126110A1 - Système de prédiction de tremblement de terre, programme de prédiction de tremblement de terre, et procédé de prédiction de tremblement de terre - Google Patents

Système de prédiction de tremblement de terre, programme de prédiction de tremblement de terre, et procédé de prédiction de tremblement de terre Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2011126110A1
WO2011126110A1 PCT/JP2011/058893 JP2011058893W WO2011126110A1 WO 2011126110 A1 WO2011126110 A1 WO 2011126110A1 JP 2011058893 W JP2011058893 W JP 2011058893W WO 2011126110 A1 WO2011126110 A1 WO 2011126110A1
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Prior art keywords
earthquake
prediction
generator
occurrence
reference value
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PCT/JP2011/058893
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English (en)
Japanese (ja)
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匠 吉岡
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マド・プランニング有限会社
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Priority to JP2011553641A priority Critical patent/JP5069377B2/ja
Publication of WO2011126110A1 publication Critical patent/WO2011126110A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
    • G01V1/00—Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
    • G01V1/01—Measuring or predicting earthquakes

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to an earthquake prediction apparatus, an earthquake prediction program, and an earthquake prediction method using a generator.
  • the approach of earthquake prediction can be roughly divided into two. One is foreseeing immediately before the occurrence of an earthquake and giving a warning before the main vibration arrives after the occurrence of an earthquake. is there.
  • Patent Document 1 discloses an earthquake prediction information that displays earthquake prediction information announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency or the Japan Meteorological Association on the display of an information terminal device such as a mobile phone or a personal computer.
  • An information terminal device such as a mobile phone or a personal computer.
  • a providing system has been proposed (Patent Document 1).
  • earthquake prediction information is written to the information terminal device at the observation stage of the P wave (primary wave) before the S wave (secondary wave) that is the main vibration of the earthquake arrives. It can be reported as information.
  • Such immediately preceding prediction has the effect that it can give the user time delay until the arrival of the S wave and can perform prior actions such as disaster prevention preparation and evacuation preparation.
  • Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2008-145351 discloses that a magnetic sensor is used to set the reception signal band to an ultra-long wave body 10-300 Hz, and artificial noise within the frequency band.
  • the output signal is amplitude-detected by an amplitude detection circuit to regenerate the DC component, and extremely sensitive low-frequency signals with a period of several days to a month
  • Patent Document 2 A crustal activity detection receiving system and apparatus for detecting the crustal activity have been proposed (Patent Document 2).
  • Patent Document 2 According to the invention described in Patent Document 2, it is supposed that abnormalities in electromagnetic waves observed before the occurrence of an earthquake can be detected and earthquake prediction information with high reliability can be acquired.
  • the method of predicting an earthquake by observing a P wave is such that the P wave and S wave are almost simultaneously in the case of a direct earthquake with the epicenter immediately below. Since it reaches the surface, there is a problem that the user cannot be given enough time until the earthquake occurs.
  • the electromagnetic wave observed before the earthquake is a weak radio wave, and since it is unclear when and from which direction it arrives, a sensor is required for accurate detection. It is thought that the size must be increased. Furthermore, in order to detect more reliably, it is necessary to provide a huge number of measurement points. However, it is difficult in terms of cost to install such a large number of large sensors and improve the infrastructure.
  • the present invention has been made to solve such a problem, and an earthquake prediction apparatus, an earthquake prediction program, and an earthquake that predict an earthquake by capturing an abnormal operation that occurs in a generator before the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • the purpose is to provide a prediction method.
  • An earthquake prediction apparatus is an earthquake prediction apparatus for predicting an earthquake based on a change in operation of a generator, and a reference for determining a change in operation effective for earthquake prediction among the operations of the generator;
  • the operation reference value storage means for storing the operation reference value, the operation information acquisition means for acquiring the operation information of the generator, and the power generation obtained by comparing the operation information of the generator and the operation reference value.
  • An earthquake occurrence prediction means for predicting the occurrence of an earthquake based on an abnormal change in the operation of the machine, and a prediction result output means for outputting a prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • the earthquake prediction program includes an earthquake prediction device, an operation information acquisition unit that acquires operation information of the generator, and a reference that determines a change in operation information effective for the generator operation information and earthquake prediction.
  • An earthquake occurrence predicting means for predicting the occurrence of an earthquake based on an abnormal change in the operation of the generator obtained by comparing the operation reference value acquired from the action reference value storage means storing the action reference value to be And functioning as a prediction result output means for outputting the prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • the operation reference value storage unit includes a reactive power reference value storage unit that stores a reactive power reference value serving as a reference for determining a change in the reactive power of the generator, and the operation information acquisition unit Includes a reactive power acquisition unit that acquires reactive power of the generator, and the earthquake occurrence prediction unit compares the acquired reactive power with the reactive power reference value, and a comparison result thereof There may be provided an earthquake occurrence prediction unit for predicting the occurrence of an earthquake based on the abnormal change in the reactive power obtained by.
  • the operation reference value storage means includes an axial vibration reference value storage unit that stores an axial vibration reference value serving as a reference for determining a change in the axial vibration of the generator
  • the operation information acquisition means Comprises an axial vibration acquisition unit for acquiring information on the axial vibration of the generator, and the earthquake occurrence prediction means compares the acquired axial vibration information with the axial vibration reference value, and You may have an earthquake occurrence prediction part which estimates an earthquake occurrence based on the abnormal change of the axial vibration obtained by the comparison result.
  • the operation reference value storage means includes an exciter shaft vibration reference value storage unit that stores an exciter shaft vibration reference value that serves as a reference for determining a change in shaft vibration in the exciter of the generator.
  • the motion information acquisition means has an exciter shaft vibration acquisition unit that acquires information on the shaft vibration of the exciter, and the earthquake occurrence prediction means uses the acquired exciter shaft vibration information and the exciter shaft vibration reference value.
  • An exciter shaft vibration comparison unit for comparison and an earthquake occurrence prediction unit for predicting the occurrence of an earthquake based on an abnormal change in the shaft vibration of the exciter obtained from the comparison result may be included.
  • the operation information acquisition unit acquires operation information of the generators existing at a plurality of locations via the Internet
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit includes the acquired operation information and the operation reference value.
  • the apparatus has installation location information acquisition means for acquiring installation location information that can specify the location where the generator is installed, and includes the installation location information of the plurality of generators predicted to be earthquake-occurring. You may have the earthquake occurrence place prediction means which estimates the occurrence place of an earthquake based on it.
  • the earthquake prediction method includes a step of acquiring operation information of the generator and a step of acquiring an operation reference value serving as a reference for determining a change in operation effective for earthquake prediction from the operation reference value storage means. Comparing the operation information of the generator with the operation reference value, predicting an occurrence of an earthquake based on an abnormal change in the operation of the generator, and outputting a prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake And have.
  • the present invention it is possible to predict an earthquake based on an abnormal operation that occurs in a generator before an earthquake while using an existing power generation facility or the like.
  • Example 1 It is a schematic diagram which shows range A1 of the earthquake occurrence place estimated by this 2nd embodiment. It is a schematic diagram which shows range A1 of the earthquake occurrence place estimated by this 2nd embodiment. It is a schematic diagram which shows seismic center A2 predicted by the second embodiment.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows electric power data when operation which reduces electric power artificially from a normal state is performed.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the reactive power data when operation which reduces electric power artificially from a normal state is performed.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the turbine shaft position data before and behind the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the electric power data before and behind the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the reactive power data before and behind the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the electric power data at the time of normal and before an earthquake occurrence.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the reactive power data at the time of normal and before an earthquake occurrence.
  • it is a line graph which shows the amplitude data of the axial vibration of the generator at the time of normality and before the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • Example 1 it is a line graph which shows the amplitude data of the axial vibration before and behind an earthquake occurrence.
  • Example 2 it is a line graph which shows the amplitude data of the axial vibration of the generator before and after the occurrence of the first earthquake.
  • Example 2 it is a bar graph which shows the correlation of the axial vibration of the generator before and after the 1st earthquake occurrence.
  • Example 2 it is a line graph which shows the reactive power data before and behind the 1st earthquake occurrence.
  • Example 2 it is a bar graph which shows the correlation of the reactive power before and after the occurrence of the first earthquake.
  • it it is a bar graph which shows the correlation of the axial vibration of the exciter before and after the occurrence of the first earthquake.
  • it it is a bar graph which shows the correlation of the axial vibration of the generator before and behind the occurrence of the 2nd earthquake.
  • Example 2 it is a bar graph which shows the correlation of the reactive power before and behind the occurrence of the second earthquake.
  • FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an earthquake prediction system 1A including an earthquake prediction device 3A and an earthquake prediction program 3a according to the first embodiment.
  • the earthquake prediction system 1 mainly includes a generator 2, an earthquake prediction device 3 that predicts an earthquake based on a change in operation of the generator 2, and an output device that outputs a prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake. 4.
  • a generator 2 an earthquake prediction device 3 that predicts an earthquake based on a change in operation of the generator 2
  • an output device that outputs a prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake. 4.
  • the generator 2 is a general generator installed in a power plant or the like, and includes a magnet 26, a rotor coil 27, an exciter 28 that supplies current to the rotor coil 27, and the like.
  • a generator operation measuring means 21 for measuring a change in the operation of the machine 2 is attached.
  • the generator 2 in the first embodiment is connected to a turbine 22 as shown in FIG.
  • the scale and type of the generator 2 are not particularly limited, and may be appropriately selected as long as they can be used for earthquake prediction.
  • movement measurement means 21 may be incorporated in the generator 2, and may be comprised separately.
  • the exciter 28 in the first embodiment is a general exciter that supplies current to the rotor coil 27, and generates power by obtaining power from the generator 2.
  • the turbine 22 in the first embodiment rotates using steam generated by the boiler 24 as a power source.
  • the power source of the turbine 22 is not limited to water vapor, and is appropriately selected from hydraulic power, wave power, wind power, and the like.
  • the generator operation measuring means 21 measures various data related to the operation of the generator 2.
  • the reactive power measuring unit 211 and the shaft vibration measuring unit 212 will be described as an example. .
  • the reactive power measuring unit 211 measures reactive power, and a general reactive power meter used for power monitoring of the generator 2 can be employed.
  • the reactive power measuring unit 211 in the first embodiment is installed on a power transmission line during transmission of power from the generator 2 to the power transmission network 23.
  • the shaft vibration measuring unit 212 measures the amplitude of the shaft vibration of the generator 2, and a general vibrometer used for vibration monitoring of the generator 2 can be adopted.
  • the shaft vibration measuring unit 212 in the first embodiment is a vibrometer using a strain gauge, and is installed on the bearing 25 on the turbine 22 side of the generator 2.
  • the operation of the generator 2 measured by the generator operation measuring means 21 is not limited to reactive power or generator shaft vibration, but changes in the operation of the generator 2 effective for earthquake prediction. Can be appropriately selected.
  • the power factor of the electric power generated by the generator 2 the frequency at the time of power generation, the shaft vibration of the exciter 28, and the like can be mentioned.
  • Examples of the output device 4 include a liquid crystal display that displays images and text data, a speaker that emits sound, a printer that outputs the printed matter, and the like.
  • the output device 4 in the first embodiment includes a liquid crystal display for displaying a warning image as a prediction result of the occurrence of an earthquake and a speaker for outputting a warning sound by a prediction result output means 63 described later.
  • the earthquake prediction apparatus 3A is configured by a computer or the like. As shown in FIG. 1, the earthquake prediction apparatus 3A mainly stores an earthquake prediction program 3a, various data, and the like, and controls the storage means 5 and various kinds of data. It comprises an arithmetic processing means 6 that acquires data and performs arithmetic processing.
  • the storage means 5 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a hard disk, a flash memory, and the like.
  • the storage means 5 stores various data and a working area when the arithmetic processing means 6 performs arithmetic operations. It functions as.
  • the storage unit 5 in the first embodiment mainly includes a program storage unit 51, a reactive power reference value storage unit 521 that functions as an operation reference value storage unit 52, and an axial vibration reference value storage unit 522. And a warning image storage unit 53.
  • a program storage unit 51 mainly includes a program storage unit 51, a reactive power reference value storage unit 521 that functions as an operation reference value storage unit 52, and an axial vibration reference value storage unit 522.
  • a warning image storage unit 53 mainly includes a warning image storage unit 53.
  • the earthquake prediction program 3a of the first embodiment is installed. Then, the arithmetic processing means 6 executes the earthquake prediction program 3a, thereby causing the earthquake prediction device 3 of the first embodiment to function as each constituent means described later.
  • the usage form of the earthquake prediction program 3a is not limited to the above configuration, but may be stored in a recording medium such as a CD-ROM and directly started and executed from this recording medium.
  • the operation reference value storage means 52 stores in advance an operation reference value serving as a reference for discriminating changes in the operation of the generator 2 effective for earthquake prediction.
  • the operation reference value storage means 52 in the first embodiment is a reactive power reference value storage unit 521 that stores a reactive power reference value that is a reference for determining a change in reactive power, and a reference for determining a change in shaft vibration.
  • a shaft vibration reference value storage unit 522 that stores a shaft vibration reference value;
  • Each reference value stored in the reactive power reference value storage unit 521 and the shaft vibration reference value storage unit 522 is the abnormal value when the past reactive power and the normal value of the shaft vibration or the abnormal value before the occurrence of the earthquake is changed. It is decided based on. For example, a threshold or a certain range is set based on the abnormal value before the earthquake for the average value of each operation during normal time, the rate of change per unit time, the number of fluctuations per predetermined time, etc. The reference value is determined.
  • the reactive power reference value in the first embodiment is set within a predetermined range from the average value of reactive power per unit time. As will be described later, since the reactive power frequently changes before the occurrence of an earthquake, the rate of change and the number of fluctuations within a predetermined time may be set. On the other hand, the axial vibration reference value in the first embodiment uses a predetermined number of axial vibration fluctuations as a threshold value.
  • the operation reference value storage means 52 in the first embodiment may be not only built in the earthquake prediction measure 3A but also arranged externally and connected to transmit and receive data.
  • the warning image storage unit 53 previously outputs a warning image for outputting the prediction result as an image to the output device 4 by the prediction result output unit 63 when the occurrence of the earthquake is predicted by the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 62 as will be described later. It is something to remember.
  • the accuracy and risk (possibility) of occurrence of earthquakes such as “earthquake occurrence warning”, “earthquake occurrence warning”, “earthquake occurrence evacuation instruction”, magnitude, Various warning images according to the magnitude of the earthquake such as seismic intensity are stored. For example, reactive power fluctuates greatly as the time of the occurrence of an earthquake. Therefore, if an earthquake is first noticed and the possibility of occurrence increases, an earthquake occurrence warning or an earthquake occurrence evacuation instruction is immediately issued. "Can be displayed.
  • the arithmetic processing means 6 is composed of a CPU (Central Processing ⁇ Unit) or the like, and by executing the earthquake prediction program 3a installed in the storage means 5, as shown in FIG.
  • the earthquake prediction device 3 is made to function as the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 and the prediction result output means 63.
  • each component will be described in more detail.
  • the operation information acquisition unit 61 acquires the operation of the generator 2 measured by the generator operation measurement unit 21.
  • the operation information acquisition unit 61 includes a reactive power acquisition unit 611 and an axial vibration acquisition unit 612. is doing.
  • the reactive power acquisition unit 611 in the first embodiment acquires the reactive power data of the generator 2 measured by the reactive power measurement unit 211 at predetermined time intervals.
  • the shaft vibration acquisition unit 612 in the first embodiment acquires the shaft vibration data of the generator 2 measured by the shaft vibration measurement unit 212 at a predetermined time interval.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 62 is based on an abnormal change in operation obtained by comparing the operation information of the generator 2 acquired from the operation information acquisition unit 61 and the operation reference value acquired from the operation reference value storage unit 52. This predicts the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 62 in the first embodiment includes a reactive power comparison unit 621, an axial vibration comparison unit 622, and an earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623.
  • An abnormal change in operation is a change that is different from a change in operation during normal times or a change in operation due to an artificial operation, and is a change that occurs before the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • the reactive power comparison unit 621 compares the reactive power acquired by the reactive power acquisition unit 611 with the reactive power reference value read from the reactive power reference value storage unit 521, and the reactive power is the reactive power reference. It is compared whether it is out of the range of values. In the first embodiment, when reactive power is outside the range of the reactive power reference value, it can be obtained by comparing how far the reactive power is out of the range.
  • the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 compares the shaft vibration acquired by the shaft vibration acquisition unit 612 with the shaft vibration reference value read from the shaft vibration reference value storage unit 522. In the first embodiment, the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 compares whether or not the number of changes in the shaft vibration within a predetermined time is equal to or greater than the number of changes in the shaft vibration reference value. Further, when the axial vibration is equal to or greater than the axial vibration reference value, it can be obtained by comparing how much the axial vibration is greater than the threshold value.
  • the comparison in the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 is not limited to the above-described comparison method, and the measured operation value and the reference value are simply set as in the first embodiment. Or the autocorrelation, reactive power, and shaft vibration amplitude values for the motion values at the time when there is no earthquake effect may be obtained as mutual correlations over time and comprehensively compared. .
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623 predicts the occurrence of an earthquake based on an abnormal change in operation obtained from the comparison results of the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622. In the first embodiment, the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623 predicts the occurrence of an earthquake and the risk of occurrence of an earthquake and the magnitude of the earthquake.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623 indicates that the comparison result by the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 indicates that either one or both of the acquired reactive power and shaft vibration is outside the range of each reference value or a threshold value.
  • the comparison result by the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 is an abnormal change, and how much reactive power and shaft vibration are outside the range of each reference value from the range and threshold value. Depending on whether it is off, the risk and the magnitude of the earthquake are classified into “large”, “medium” and “small”. Further, when it is determined that both reactive power and shaft vibration exceed the reference value and there is a possibility of occurrence of an earthquake, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake is further increased.
  • the prediction result output means 63 outputs the prediction result when the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 predicts that an earthquake will occur.
  • the prediction result output means 63 in the first embodiment includes “earthquake occurrence caution” and “earthquake occurrence warning” stored in the warning image storage unit 53 in accordance with the occurrence of the earthquake predicted by the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 and its risk and seismic intensity. Warning images such as “earthquake occurrence warning” and “earthquake occurrence evacuation instruction” are appropriately acquired and output to the output device 4.
  • the generator 2 in the first embodiment generates power by obtaining a rotational force from the turbine 22.
  • the generator 2 has an abnormality in the change in the operation of reactive power and shaft vibration before the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • This abnormal phenomenon is considered to be a phenomenon caused by the reception of weak electromagnetic waves generated before the earthquake by the magnet 26, the rotor coil 27, the exciter 28, the power transmission network 23, and the like of the generator 2.
  • the power transmission network 23 is also considered to function as an electromagnetic wave antenna.
  • the earthquake prediction apparatus 3A executed by the earthquake prediction program 3a according to the first embodiment operates as follows and executes the earthquake prediction method.
  • the operation reference value storage means 52 stores an operation reference value serving as a reference for determining a change in operation effective for earthquake prediction (step S1).
  • the reactive power reference value storage unit 521 and the axial vibration reference value storage unit 522 store the reactive power reference value and the axial vibration reference value, respectively.
  • the reactive power measuring unit 211 of the generator operation measuring means 21 measures reactive power in the power generated by the generator 2 (step S2a). Further, the shaft vibration measuring unit 212 of the generator operation measuring means 21 measures the amplitude value of the shaft vibration in the bearing 25 on the turbine 22 side of the generator 2 (step S2b). Note that the measured reactive power and the amplitude value of the shaft vibration are normally used for real-time monitoring of the generator operation by sequentially displaying the output device 4 and the like on the display.
  • the operation information acquisition means 61 acquires the operation information of the generator 2 (step S3).
  • the reactive power acquisition unit 611 acquires reactive power data measured by the reactive power measurement unit 211 (step S3a), and the axial vibration acquisition unit 612 of the motion information acquisition unit 61 performs axial vibration measurement.
  • the shaft vibration data measured by the unit 212 is acquired (step S3b).
  • the occurrence of an earthquake is predicted by the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 based on a change in the abnormal operation of the generator 2.
  • the reactive power comparison unit 621 in the first embodiment reads the reactive power reference value from the reactive power reference value storage unit 521 (step S4a). Then, the reactive power comparison unit 621 The reactive power acquired by the reactive power acquisition unit 611 is compared with the reactive power reference value to determine whether or not the reactive power reference value is outside the range (step S5a). As described above, the reactive power comparison unit 621 can determine in real time whether or not the reactive power is abnormally changed by sequentially comparing the acquired reactive power and the reactive power reference value. In addition, when the reactive power is outside the range of the reactive power reference value, the extent to which the reactive power is out of the range is also compared and used as a reference for predicting the risk of earthquake occurrence and the magnitude of the earthquake.
  • the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 in the first embodiment reads the shaft vibration reference value from the shaft vibration reference value storage unit 522 (step S4b). Then, the amplitude value of the shaft vibration acquired by the shaft vibration acquisition unit 612 is compared with the shaft vibration reference value, and the number of fluctuations of the shaft vibration within a predetermined time is equal to or greater than a predetermined number of fluctuations that is the shaft vibration reference value. Are compared (step S5b). As described above, the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 can determine in real time whether or not the shaft vibration is abnormally changed by sequentially comparing the acquired shaft vibration and the shaft vibration reference value. When the shaft vibration is equal to or greater than the shaft vibration reference value, it is compared with how much the number of fluctuations is greater than a predetermined number of fluctuations, and is used as a reference for predicting the earthquake risk and the magnitude of the earthquake.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623 in the first embodiment predicts the occurrence of an earthquake based on an abnormal change in operation obtained from the comparison result of the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 (steps S6a and S6b). . That is, when the reactive power is within the range of the reactive power reference value (NO in step S5a), the process returns to step S2a assuming that there is no abnormal change in reactive power. On the other hand, if the reactive power is outside the range of the reactive power reference value (YES in step S5a), it is predicted that there is an abnormal change in reactive power and an earthquake will occur (step S6a).
  • step S5b If the shaft vibration is within the shaft vibration reference value (NO in step S5b), it returns to step S2b assuming that there is no abnormality in the shaft vibration. On the other hand, when the shaft vibration is a fluctuation equal to or greater than the shaft vibration reference value (when step S5b is YES), it is predicted that there is an abnormal change in the shaft vibration and an earthquake will occur (step S6b).
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623 in the first embodiment has an abnormal change in at least one of the reactive power and the axial vibration according to the comparison result of the reactive power comparison unit 621 or the axial vibration comparison unit 622. If it is determined that the earthquake will occur, it is predicted that an earthquake will occur.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 623 in the first embodiment determines whether or not the comparison result by the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 is an abnormal change, and the invalidity outside the range of each reference value.
  • the risk of occurrence of an earthquake and the magnitude of an earthquake can be predicted by how much the power and shaft vibrations are out of the range and threshold.
  • the comparison result by the reactive power comparison unit 621 and the shaft vibration comparison unit 622 determines that only one of them is changing abnormally, the risk of an earthquake is low, and both of them show abnormal changes. If it is determined that the earthquake has occurred, it can be predicted that the risk of an earthquake is high.
  • the seismic intensity is small when the difference between the reactive power and the shaft vibration is small, and the seismic intensity is large when the difference is large.
  • the risk of earthquake occurrence in the first embodiment is set to “large”, “medium”, and “small” by applying the table shown in FIG. 3 based on the above comparison results. Classification.
  • the accuracy of earthquake prediction can be improved, and the occurrence of an earthquake
  • the risk of earthquakes and the magnitude of earthquakes can be communicated in detail.
  • the prediction result output means 63 outputs the prediction result when the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 predicts that an earthquake will occur (step S7).
  • the prediction result output unit 63 in the first embodiment is configured to display the “earthquake” stored in the warning image storage unit 53 according to the occurrence of the earthquake predicted by the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 62 and the risk and magnitude of the earthquake. Warning images such as “Caution on occurrence”, “Earthquake occurrence warning”, and “Earthquake occurrence evacuation instruction” are appropriately acquired and output to the output device 4.
  • the user can take an appropriate action according to the risk or the magnitude of the earthquake.
  • the earthquake prediction apparatus 3A, the earthquake prediction program 3a, and the earthquake prediction method in the first embodiment as described above the following effects can be obtained.
  • the occurrence of an earthquake can be predicted by monitoring operations such as reactive power and shaft vibration of the generator 2.
  • the change in the abnormal operation of the generator 2 occurs at least several minutes before the occurrence of the earthquake, the earthquake prediction can be performed earlier than the previous prediction several seconds before.
  • the monitoring system of an existing power plant can be used, the initial cost for equipment maintenance can be reduced.
  • FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an earthquake prediction system including the earthquake prediction apparatus and the earthquake prediction program of the second embodiment. Note that, in the configuration of the second embodiment, the same or equivalent configuration as the configuration of the first embodiment described above is denoted by the same reference numeral, and the description thereof is omitted.
  • the earthquake prediction system 1B mainly generates an earthquake based on the generator 2 existing in a plurality of places and the operation information of each generator 2 obtained from each generator 2 via the Internet. It comprises an earthquake prediction device 3 ⁇ / b> B for prediction and an output device 4. For example, it is a system that predicts the occurrence of an earthquake by connecting a plurality of generators 2 and an earthquake prediction center 7 via the Internet, constantly monitoring the operation of the generator.
  • the plurality of generators 2 exist in different places, and as an example, as shown in FIG. 6, a generator 2a of a hydroelectric power plant, a generator 2b of a nuclear power plant, The generator 2c of the thermal power plant and the generator 2d of the wind power plant.
  • Each generator 2 is provided with a generator operation measuring means 21.
  • the generator 2 includes a reactive power measuring unit 211 and an axial vibration measuring unit 212, and a prediction result.
  • An output device 4 for displaying the prediction result output by the output means 63 is provided. This output device 4 is not limited to the one installed directly on the generator 2 but also includes one installed in a monitoring room or the like in the generator facility, for example, away from the generator 2.
  • the earthquake prediction apparatus 3B in the second embodiment is configured by a computer or the like installed in a building such as the earthquake prediction center 7 shown in FIG. 6, and mainly in the second embodiment as shown in FIG. It comprises a storage means 5 for storing the earthquake prediction program 3b and various data, etc., and an arithmetic processing means 6 for controlling the storage means 5 and acquiring and processing various data.
  • the storage means in the second embodiment mainly includes a program storage unit 51, a reactive power reference value storage unit 521 and an axial vibration reference value storage unit 522 that function as the operation reference value storage unit 52, and an installation location information storage unit 54. And a warning image storage unit 53.
  • the operation reference value storage means 52 in the second embodiment stores each reference value corresponding to each generator 2 with respect to the operation of the generator 2 effective for earthquake prediction.
  • the installation location information storage unit 54 is for storing installation location information for specifying the installation location of each generator 2.
  • latitude / longitude information or coordinate information corresponding to the map information of the place where each generator 2 is installed is stored.
  • the arithmetic processing means 6 in the second embodiment executes the earthquake prediction program 3b installed in the storage means 5, thereby causing the earthquake prediction apparatus 3B to operate as an operation information acquisition means 61, an earthquake occurrence prediction means 62, It functions as an installation location information acquisition means 64, an earthquake occurrence location prediction means 65, and a prediction result output means 63.
  • the operation information acquisition unit 61 in the second embodiment acquires operation information of each generator 2 via the Internet, and includes a reactive power acquisition unit 611 and an axial vibration acquisition unit 612.
  • the line used for the Internet is not particularly limited, and is appropriately selected from a telephone line, an optical communication line, a wireless line, and the like.
  • the reactive power acquisition unit 611 and the shaft vibration measurement unit 612 in the second embodiment are the reactive power data and the shaft vibration data measured by the reactive power measurement unit 211 and the shaft vibration measurement unit 212 as the operation information of each generator 2. To get to.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 in the second embodiment predicts the presence / absence of earthquake occurrence, the risk of occurrence of earthquake, and the seismic intensity of each generator 2 by comparing the operation information of each generator 2 with a reference value. It is like that.
  • a reference value of operation information common to each generator 2 may be set, or an operation reference unique to each generator 2 in consideration of an operation value unique to each generator 2. A value may be set.
  • the operation information of each generator 2 in the second embodiment in addition to the reactive power and the amplitude value of the shaft vibration, the operation information effective for earthquake prediction, such as the power factor and frequency, as in the first embodiment. May be adopted.
  • the installation location information acquisition unit 64 acquires the installation location information of the generator 2 predicted to cause an earthquake by the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 62 from the installation location information storage unit 54.
  • the installation location information acquisition means 64 in the second embodiment acquires latitude / longitude information or coordinate information corresponding to the map information stored in the installation location information storage unit 54.
  • the earthquake occurrence location prediction means 65 predicts the occurrence location of the earthquake based on the prediction result by the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 and the installation location information acquired by the installation location information acquisition means 64.
  • the earthquake occurrence location prediction means 65 in the second embodiment is, for example, the installation location of the generator 2 where an earthquake is expected to occur based on the earthquake occurrence risk and intensity predicted by the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62.
  • a circle area with a predetermined radius centered at the center is predicted as the place where the earthquake occurred.
  • the prediction result output means 63 in the second embodiment outputs the prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake to the generator facility where the occurrence of the earthquake is predicted via the Internet, and the area where the earthquake is predicted to occur based on the map information It is also output to an information terminal or the like existing inside. In this case, transmission to a portable information terminal such as a mobile phone or a smartphone is also possible.
  • the operation reference value storage means 52 stores an operation reference value serving as a reference for determining a change in operation effective for earthquake prediction (step S1).
  • the installation location of each generator 2 is stored in the installation location information storage unit (step: S1 ').
  • the reactive power measuring unit 211 and the shaft vibration measuring unit 212 of the generator operation measuring unit 21 measure the reactive power and the amplitude value of the shaft vibration of each generator 2. (Steps S2a, 2b).
  • the operation information acquisition means 61 acquires the operation information of the generator 2 (step S3).
  • the reactive power acquisition unit 621 and the shaft vibration measurement unit 622 acquire the reactive power data and the shaft vibration data measured by the reactive power measurement unit 211 and the shaft vibration measurement unit 212 of each generator 2. (Steps S3a, S3b).
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 reads the reactive power reference value and the axial vibration reference value from the reactive power reference value storage unit 521 and the axial vibration reference device storage unit 522 of the operation reference value storage means 52, respectively (steps S4a and S4b). Then, the reactive power data and the shaft vibration data acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 61 are compared with the reactive power reference value and the shaft vibration reference value, and an abnormal change in the reactive power and the shaft vibration in each generator 2 is determined. (Steps S5a and S5b), the presence / absence of an earthquake, the risk of earthquake occurrence and the seismic intensity are predicted (Steps S6a and S6b).
  • the installation location information acquisition unit 64 acquires the installation location information of the generator 2 predicted to cause an earthquake by the earthquake occurrence prediction unit 62 from the installation location information storage unit 54 (step S8).
  • the earthquake occurrence location prediction means 65 obtains the prediction result by the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 and the installation location information when the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 predicts that an earthquake will occur at any location of each generator 2. Based on the installation location information acquired by the means 64, an earthquake occurrence location is predicted (step S9).
  • the prediction result output means 63 outputs the prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake to the output device 4 of the generator facility where the occurrence of the earthquake is predicted via the Internet, and the area where the earthquake is predicted to occur based on the map information The information is also output to an information terminal or the like existing therein (step S7).
  • the installation location information acquisition unit 64 acquires the map information of the generator 2a stored in the installation location information storage unit 54. Based on this map information, the earthquake occurrence location predicting means 65 identifies the installation location of the generator 2a. Subsequently, as shown in FIG. 8, a circle having a predetermined radius around the specified installation location of the generator 2 a is assumed. At this time, the radius of the circle corresponds to the risk and seismic intensity predicted by the earthquake occurrence predicting means 62, and the radius is increased as the risk and seismic intensity increase. The earthquake occurrence location prediction means 65 predicts the range A1 inside the circle as the location where an earthquake occurs.
  • the prediction area of the occurrence of the earthquake is specified centering on the earthquake.
  • the prediction of the earthquake occurrence range is the same as in the case of the single generator 2 described with reference to FIG. That is, the size of the radius is specified in proportion to the risk and seismic intensity predicted with respect to the generator 2 that has detected an abnormal operation. It is possible to issue warnings, warnings, and evacuation orders for residents in this area.
  • map information in which all the location information of the generators 2b to 2d stored in the installation location information storage unit 54 is recorded by the installation location information acquisition means 64 is obtained. get.
  • the earthquake occurrence location predicting means 65 draws a circle with a smaller radius as the risk and seismic intensity increase with each installation location as the center, contrary to the identification of the earthquake occurrence location, when predicting the epicenter. This is based on the relationship that the epicenter is closer as the risk and intensity of an earthquake increase, and that the epicenter is farther as the risk and intensity of an earthquake are smaller.
  • the earthquake occurrence location prediction means 65 in the second embodiment predicts that the epicenter is in the range A2 where each circle overlaps.
  • the prediction result output means 63 outputs the prediction result to the generator facility via the Internet when the earthquake occurrence prediction means 63 predicts that an earthquake will occur. Moreover, the prediction result output means 63 in the second embodiment can output the prediction result also to information terminals and the like that exist within the predicted ranges A1 and A2.
  • the earthquake prediction center 7 collects information on each generator 2 and compares it with the operation reference value to predict the occurrence of an earthquake.
  • the earthquake prediction device 3A as shown in the first embodiment is installed in each generator 2, and only the prediction result of the occurrence of the earthquake is collected in the earthquake prediction center 7 via the Internet to generate the earthquake. Information may be transmitted by predicting a place.
  • information on the occurrence of earthquakes can be provided to generator facilities and portable information terminals in areas where earthquakes are predicted using the Internet.
  • the earthquake prediction center 7 it is possible to adjust the power generation and power transmission faults accompanying the occurrence of an earthquake and to perform appropriate control. For example, before or after an earthquake occurs, the output of the power plant where the occurrence of the earthquake is predicted is suppressed or stopped to ensure safety, and the decrease in the output is compensated by increasing the output of other power plants. It can be used for comprehensive safety management.
  • Example 1 an abnormal change in each operation in the generator before the earthquake, which was observed when system monitoring was performed at the power plant, will be described.
  • the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred was 6.2
  • the depth of the epicenter was about 145 km
  • the distance between the power station and the epicenter was about 200 km
  • the seismic intensity at the power station was 4.
  • Example 1 refers to the driving state on the day when there is no earthquake effect.
  • the operation to reduce the power artificially at this time is the one that switches to the so-called in-house single operation that disconnects the generator from the power grid and generates only the minimum amount of power to keep the generator rotating. It is.
  • FIG. 11 is a line graph showing power data when an operation for manually reducing power from a normal time is performed. From FIG. 11, it can be seen that at about 62 minutes, the power was reduced from about 580 [MW] at normal time to about 30 [MW] necessary for the generator to continue rotating.
  • FIG. 12 is a line graph showing reactive power data when an operation for artificially reducing the power is performed from the normal time. Comparing FIG. 11 and FIG. 12, it can be seen that the reactive power also decreases as the power decreases. That is, the power and the reactive power in a normal state or when manually operated are in a substantially proportional relationship.
  • FIG. 13 is a line graph showing turbine shaft position data when the shaft position of the turbine shaft deviates from the normal position. From FIG. 13, it can be seen that the turbine shaft position is shifted at about 63 minutes. The time when the turbine shaft position is shifted is substantially equal to the time when the first S wave reaches the power plant.
  • FIG. 14 is a line graph showing power data when an earthquake occurs. There was no significant change even when we saw around 63 minutes when the S wave arrived, and it was stable at about 570 [MW]. The reason why the power is stable is that the power is controlled so as to be kept constant.
  • FIG. 15 is a line graph showing reactive power data on the same time axis as FIG. As can be seen from FIG. 15, the reactive power fluctuates before and after the occurrence of the earthquake. In addition, the reactive power is rapidly increasing around 63 minutes when the S wave arrives.
  • Such a change in reactive power is a behavior that is not recognized in FIG. 12 or the like showing reactive power data in normal or artificial operation, and is an abnormal change due to the influence of electromagnetic waves before and after the occurrence of an earthquake. Can do.
  • FIG. 16 is a line graph showing power data at normal times and before an earthquake occurs. According to FIG. 16, it is operated with electric power of about 580 [MW] at the normal time, and is operated with electric power of about 570 [MW] before the occurrence of the earthquake. In other words, the vehicle is operated with electric power that is higher than normal before the earthquake.
  • the reactive power at normal time is smaller than the reactive power before the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • the reactive power before the occurrence of the earthquake is different in behavior from the reactive power in the normal state, and is larger in the opposite relation to the power. It should be noted that, based on the relationship in which power and reactive power are almost proportional, by making reactive power non-dimensional with power, the normal and pre-earthquake events can be output more clearly.
  • the phenomenon in which reactive power is abnormal is considered to be the influence of weak electromagnetic waves generated before the earthquake.
  • a magnet or a coil in the generator is affected by electromagnetic waves, thereby causing a delay in the rotation of the generator, and the delay appears as an increase in reactive power.
  • FIG. 18 is a line graph showing the amplitude data of the shaft vibration of the generator at the normal time and before the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • the phenomenon in which the shaft vibration becomes abnormal is also the influence of the weak electromagnetic wave generated before the earthquake as in the case of the reactive power described above.
  • the generator causes a delay in the rotation of the generator when a magnet, a coil, or the like receives electromagnetic waves.
  • the generator since the generator is controlled so as to keep the electric power constant, it tries to maintain the rotation against the delay in the rotation of the generator. At this time, mechanical vibration is generated, and it is considered that the behavior of moving up and down appears without stabilizing the amplitude of the shaft vibration.
  • the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred at this time was magnitude 7.2
  • the depth of the epicenter was about 8 km
  • the distance between the power plant and the epicenter was about 190 km
  • the seismic intensity at the power plant was 4.
  • FIG. 20 is amplitude data showing the shaft vibration of the generator for about 600 minutes from the predetermined time on the day when the first earthquake occurred.
  • the occurrence of the earthquake is the position indicated by the arrow shown in FIG. 20, and is about 526 minutes after the predetermined time.
  • the shaft vibration of the generator is greatly oscillating due to the earthquake.
  • the axial vibration of the generator just before the earthquake was compared with the axial vibration in the reference time width, there was no apparent difference that could predict the earthquake.
  • a correlation was calculated between a certain period that is not affected by the earthquake (hereinafter referred to as “reference time width”) and before and after the occurrence of the earthquake.
  • reference time width a certain period that is not affected by the earthquake
  • 100 minutes from the predetermined time was set as the reference time width.
  • FIG. 21 is a graph showing the correlation of the generator shaft vibration on the day when the first earthquake occurred.
  • the vertical axis in FIG. 21 represents the low correlation value. In other words, the higher the value of the graph, the less similar to the data of the reference time width, and conversely, it indicates that an abnormality has occurred due to the influence of an earthquake or the like.
  • Example 2 Before the earthquake occurred, the value from 100 minutes to 430 minutes after the reference time width is higher than the value in the reference time width. In addition, from around 430 minutes immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake to around 526 minutes, the value is slightly lower than the previous value. Therefore, in Example 2, in the axial vibration of the generator in the first earthquake, it was possible to catch the sign of the earthquake although it was slightly due to the correlation with the data within the reference time width.
  • FIG. 22 shows reactive power data on the day when the first earthquake occurs.
  • the predetermined time is the same as the case of the shaft vibration of the generator in FIG.
  • the reactive power suddenly increased around 100 minutes and once decreased around 430 minutes, and there was no significant change before and after the occurrence of the earthquake. That is, an increase in reactive power from around 100 minutes to around 430 minutes is considered to be a sign of an earthquake.
  • the correlation before and after the occurrence of the earthquake was calculated for the reactive power with a reference time width of 100 minutes from a predetermined time.
  • FIG. 23 is a graph showing the correlation of reactive power. As shown in FIG. 23, the correlation also has a range where the value of the graph is high from around 100 minutes to around 430 minutes, and then an earthquake occurs about 50 minutes after the value becomes small. This tendency is the same as the case of the shaft vibration of the generator, and the tendency appears more clearly than the case of the shaft vibration of the generator.
  • Example 2 the shaft vibration of the exciter was also examined.
  • FIG. 24 is the shaft vibration data of the exciter on the day when the first earthquake occurred. Overall, fine fluctuations and long-period fluctuations from after the reference time period to just before the earthquake occurred before the earthquake occurred, but there were no fluctuations that could predict the sign of the earthquake.
  • FIG. 25 is a graph showing a correlation between shaft vibrations of the exciter. As shown in FIG. 25, in the correlation, one long cycle fluctuation appears from around 120 minutes to around 475 minutes. In addition, from around 475 minutes to just before the occurrence of the earthquake, the fluctuation of the correlation value is once settled. Such a tendency becomes clearer by calculating the correlation.
  • the value increases from about 100 minutes to about 420 minutes and 50 minutes immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake appearing in the reactive power data, the correlation of the reactive power and the correlation of the shaft vibration of the exciter. It is thought that the gradual change of the value is a sign of an earthquake. Moreover, it is considered that the sign of an earthquake may be more clearly discriminated by calculating the correlation like the shaft vibration of an exciter.
  • the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred at this time was magnitude 6.7
  • the depth of the epicenter was about 40 km
  • the distance between the power plant and the epicenter was about 68 km
  • the seismic intensity at the power plant was 3.
  • the reference time width in the calculation of the correlation is set to about 100 minutes from a predetermined time.
  • the correlation of the generator shaft vibration has a time zone in which the value decreases immediately before the earthquake, but no clear change with other times has appeared.
  • the value of the graph increases from around 430 minutes and decreases around 670 minutes, and then an earthquake occurs about 80 minutes later. Therefore, the tendency that the value of the graph once increases and the value of the graph in the correlation immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake is the same tendency as the correlation of the occurrence of the first earthquake and the reactive power.
  • Example 2 it was proved that not only the reactive power data itself but also the correlation can be calculated, so that the sign of the occurrence of the earthquake can be captured with higher accuracy. In particular, even if the data itself is difficult to discriminate, it can be discriminated.
  • the earthquake prediction apparatus, the earthquake prediction program, and the earthquake prediction method according to the present invention are not limited to the above-described embodiments and examples, and can be changed as appropriate.
  • a configuration is used in which an earthquake is predicted based on a change in reactive power and a change in shaft vibration as an operation of the generator, but an earthquake is predicted based on only one of the changes. It may be. Moreover, you may predict an earthquake based on the operation
  • the generator operation measuring means 21 is added to the reactive power measuring unit 211 and the axial vibration measuring unit 212, or instead of these, an exciter shaft vibration measuring unit that measures the shaft vibration of the exciter 28 may be provided.
  • the motion reference value storage means 52 has an exciter shaft vibration reference value storage section for storing the exciter shaft vibration reference value
  • the motion information acquisition means 61 is an excitation for acquiring information on the shaft vibration of the exciter 28. It has an axis vibration acquisition unit.
  • the earthquake occurrence prediction means 62 has an exciter shaft vibration comparison unit that compares the exciter shaft vibration information with the exciter shaft vibration reference value.

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Abstract

La présente invention concerne un système de prédiction de tremblement de terre, un programme de prédiction de tremblement de terre, et un procédé de prédiction de tremblement de terre permettant de prédire des tremblements de terre en percevant des mouvements anormaux produits par un générateur avant que ne survienne un tremblement de terre. Le système de prédiction de tremblement de terre comprend : un moyen de stockage de valeur de référence de mouvement (52) pour stocker une valeur de référence de mouvement servant de critère pour déterminer des changements dans des mouvements, parmi les mouvements d'un générateur (2), servant de manière efficace à la prédiction d'un tremblement de terre ; un moyen d'acquisition d'informations de mouvement (61) pour acquérir des informations de mouvement provenant du générateur (2) ; un moyen de prévision d'occurrence de tremblement de terre (62) pour prédire des occurrences de tremblement de terre en se basant sur des changements anormaux dans les mouvements du générateur (2) obtenus en comparant les informations de mouvement provenant du générateur (2) avec la valeur de référence de mouvement ; et un moyen de sortie de résultat de prévision (63) pour sortir le résultat de prévision d'occurrence de tremblement de terre.
PCT/JP2011/058893 2010-04-09 2011-04-08 Système de prédiction de tremblement de terre, programme de prédiction de tremblement de terre, et procédé de prédiction de tremblement de terre WO2011126110A1 (fr)

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JP2006046938A (ja) * 2004-07-30 2006-02-16 Chube Univ 微弱地電流検出方法及びそのシステム
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