WO2011036699A1 - 保守方策決定装置および保守方策決定プログラム - Google Patents
保守方策決定装置および保守方策決定プログラム Download PDFInfo
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- the present invention relates to a maintenance policy determination apparatus and a maintenance policy determination program for determining a maintenance policy for equipment.
- Y ⁇ Do not fail, fail ⁇ is an example of the result Y.
- a gain function it is possible to assign a numerical value to each decision-making result Y. For example, if the component adjustment cost is "0”, the failure loss due to equipment failure is "C1”, and the replacement cost that is the cost of component replacement is "C2”, the gain function R shown below is set Is possible.
- a device that automatically selects an action that satisfies some optimality using such a gain function R is a maintenance policy determination device.
- X, A) that specifies the probability that the result Y will occur.
- the number of uses X can be defined as follows using a failure model P (F
- Patent Document 1 discloses an example of a maintenance policy determination device that determines an optimum action by maximizing an expected gain using a result model P and a gain function R. In general, when determining the optimum action by maximizing the expected gain, the expected gain shown in Expression (1) is calculated for all actions, and the action showing the maximum value is selected.
- Equation (1) is equivalent to calculating the following two values and selecting an action with a large value.
- the present invention has been made to solve the above problem, and a maintenance policy determination device and a maintenance policy determination program for selecting an optimal action from a plurality of actions that can be performed on maintenance work while considering the state of the device.
- the purpose is to provide.
- a maintenance policy determination apparatus is a maintenance policy determination apparatus that selects an optimal action from a plurality of actions that can be performed on maintenance work while considering the state of the device.
- a first storage unit storing a gain function set in advance to assign a value to a result of a certain action in a certain state, and a probability density distribution of a result model for predicting the result of the action based on the state Is stored as a result model parameter distribution, and a first calculation unit that calculates an expected gain obtained as a result of each action using the gain function and the result model parameter distribution as an action expected gain;
- a first estimation unit that estimates the result model parameter distribution after learning when a result of a new action is obtained as the parameter distribution after learning;
- a second estimation unit that estimates a gain loss that may be caused by lack of learning from the gain function, the result model parameter distribution, and the post-learning parameter distribution as a gain loss, and is stored in a third storage unit
- a second calculation unit that calculates a future decision frequency
- the maintenance policy determination program as one aspect of the present invention is a maintenance policy determination program that selects an optimal action from a plurality of actions that can be performed on maintenance work in consideration of the state of the device, and is set in advance.
- Result model parameter distribution storage in which the gain function obtained from the gain function storage unit in which the gain function is stored and the probability density distribution of the result model that predicts the result of the action based on the state are stored as the result model parameter distribution A parameter after learning based on the probability density distribution of the result model parameter obtained from the unit and the function of calculating the expected behavior gain based on the result model using the average and the respective values of the behavior and the selected result A function for listing distribution candidates, a probability density distribution of the gain function and the result model parameter, and Using the post-learning parameter distribution, for each element of the behavior, a function of calculating an increase in gain that can be expected as a result of learning the model parameter as an assumed gain loss, a probability density distribution of the resulting model parameter, and the assumed gain A function that estimates loss of behavior using losses
- a maintenance policy determination device capable of reducing maintenance costs in maintenance of equipment such as new products and parts whose model parameters are not sufficiently reliable, and A maintenance policy decision program can be realized.
- the block diagram which showed the structure of the maintenance policy determination apparatus concerning this embodiment The figure which shows an example of the gain function concerning this embodiment.
- This embodiment is effective for devices that have many model changes of products and parts compared to production facilities and power generation facilities, such as elevators, photocopiers, and electronic computers, in consideration of the value of information obtained as a result of decision making. .
- it can be applied to other devices.
- FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing an embodiment of a maintenance policy determination apparatus according to the present invention.
- the maintenance policy determination apparatus 100 includes a gain function storage unit 110, a result model parameter distribution storage unit 120, a behavior expectation gain calculation unit 130, a post-learning parameter distribution estimation unit 140, a gain loss estimation unit 150, a statistics
- An information storage unit 160, a similarity decision determination frequency calculation unit 170, an information expected gain calculation unit 180, and a maintenance policy determination unit 190 are provided.
- the second estimating unit 150 includes an assumed gain loss calculating unit 150a and an assumed gain loss integrating unit 150b.
- Each unit in FIG. 1 can be realized as a program module, for example.
- the gain function storage unit 110 is hereinafter referred to as a first storage unit.
- the result model parameter distribution storage unit 120 is hereinafter referred to as a second storage unit.
- the behavior expectation gain calculation unit 130 is hereinafter referred to as a first calculation unit.
- the post-learning parameter distribution estimation unit 140 is hereinafter referred to as a first estimation unit.
- the gain loss estimation unit 150 is hereinafter referred to as a second estimation unit.
- the statistical information storage unit 160 is hereinafter referred to as a third storage unit.
- the similar decision making frequency calculation unit 170 is hereinafter referred to as a second calculation unit.
- the information expected gain calculation unit 180 is hereinafter referred to as a third calculation unit.
- the assumed gain loss calculation unit 150a is hereinafter referred to as a fourth calculation unit.
- the assumed gain loss integrating unit 150b is hereinafter referred to as an integrating unit.
- FIG. 2 to FIG. 8 show an example of an operation for selecting an optimum action from a plurality of actions that can be performed on the maintenance work in consideration of the state of the device.
- FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the operation of the present embodiment.
- the first storage unit 110 stores each gain function R for quantifying the “preference” for the decision-making result.
- the gain function R has the result Y as an argument (R (Y)), the result Y and the action A as arguments (R (A, Y)), and the result Y, action A and state X as arguments. (R (X, A, Y)) etc.
- FIG. 2 is an example of the gain function R.
- a negative gain function R is defined by parameters of failure loss (C1) and replacement cost (C2).
- C1 failure loss
- C2 replacement cost
- the utility obtained by using the device can be given as a positive numerical value.
- the second storage unit 120 stores a result model for probabilistically predicting the result Y by the state X and the action A using the parameter ⁇ . Therefore, the second storage unit 120 needs to be able to calculate the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) of the model parameter ⁇ .
- FIG. 3 is an example of a failure model 301 for calculating a result model.
- FIG. 4 shows an example 401 of the beta distribution ⁇ (a, b).
- 4 represents the beta distribution ⁇ (9,2)
- the broken line 403 represents the beta distribution ⁇ (10,2)
- the thin line 404 represents the beta distribution ⁇ (9,3).
- the mode (mode) of the beta distribution ⁇ (9,2) of the thick line 402 is about 0.89.
- the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) is expressed by the beta distribution ⁇ (a, b), but it can also be expressed by the average and standard deviation assuming a normal distribution.
- the first calculation unit 130 uses the gain function R obtained from the first storage unit 110, the mode ( ⁇ ′) of the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) and the average of the result model parameters obtained from the second storage unit 120. As a result, the expected behavior gain R is calculated using the model P (Y
- the expected gain of the above two actions is reversed when, for example, the failure probability in FIG. 3 is about 0.91. Therefore, if the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) satisfying ⁇ ⁇ 0.91 is all zero, no matter how accurately ⁇ is estimated, the selection of the action A is not affected. If this is not the case, by selecting action A “adjustment only”, one instance of data on whether this equipment will “fail” or “fail” will be collected before the next periodic inspection. Used for updating.
- the first estimation unit 140 lists the learned parameter distribution candidates ⁇ g ′ ( ⁇
- the second estimation unit 150 uses the gain function R () and the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) of the result model parameter and the learned parameter distribution ⁇ g ′ ( ⁇
- an increase in expected gain is calculated as an assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ .
- the gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ of the action A is estimated using the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) of the result model parameter and the assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ (step S120 in FIG. 9).
- This equation (2) is obtained when the new parameter ⁇ obtained when the result Y is obtained with respect to each of the results Y when the model parameter is assumed to be ⁇ (: R ( ⁇ ( ⁇ ), ⁇ ) ⁇ R ( ⁇ ( ⁇ ), ⁇ )) is weighted by the change in probability of adopting ⁇ (g ′ ( ⁇
- the gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ is expressed as follows:
- This equation (3) is obtained by weighting the assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ by ⁇ and adding it by the integrating unit 150b with the probability of adopting the currently obtained parameter ⁇ .
- FIG. 5 shows the calculation process of the assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ of equation (4).
- the gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ the result of calculating the assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ for all ⁇ satisfying g ( ⁇ )> 0 is shown.
- FIG. 6 shows a result Y601 of calculating the assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ for various parameters ⁇ .
- the gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ can be calculated by integrating the result model parameter probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) multiplied by the corresponding value in FIG.
- FIG. 7 shows a calculation process for calculating the gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ .
- reference numeral 701 represents the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) of the result model parameter.
- a graph indicated by reference numeral 702 in FIG. 7B is obtained. It is done.
- the equation The gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ 2.6 of (5) can be obtained.
- the integral calculation of the above-described equations (2) and (3) is not necessarily performed for all parameters ⁇ .
- the integration may be performed in the range of the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) of the result model parameter or in the vicinity of the average ( ⁇ ⁇ ). It is also possible to integrate only in the region where the probability density distribution g ( ⁇ ) of the result model parameter takes a value equal to or greater than the threshold value.
- the expression (3) it is also possible to integrate only the assumed gain loss ⁇ loss ( ⁇ , A) ⁇ having a positive value.
- the second calculation unit 170 obtains statistical information about the operation of the device from the third storage unit 160, and estimates how much the information value obtained as a result of decision making can be used in future decision making (see FIG. 9 step S130).
- FIG. 8 shows an example of statistical information 801 relating to the operation of the device stored in the third storage unit 160.
- the average age of the assumed device (10 years in FIG. 8)
- the assumed number of operating units (total number of sales) (250 units in FIG. 8)
- the number of currently operating devices (FIG. 8).
- the average operation year (3 years in FIG. 8) and the distribution of the number of annual use (a)-(e) are shown.
- the number of devices that will be used 2500 times is half of group c) and all of groups d) and e), and it is estimated that 250 units x (1/2 * 25% + 15% + 5%) ⁇ 81 units. Can do.
- the similarity decision frequency may be estimated at each time such as ⁇ M1 (number of times within one year): 20 times, M2 (number of times within one to two years): 30 times, ... ⁇ .
- the third calculation unit 180 calculates the value of data obtained as a result of the action A from the gain loss ⁇ loss (A) ⁇ and the similarity decision frequency M as the information expected gain I (A) (step S140 in FIG. 9).
- the maintenance policy determination unit 190 determines the maintenance policy A by selecting the action A that has the maximum value of the action expectation gain R and the information expectation gain I (A) (step S150 in FIG. 9). That is, the maintenance policy is determined by the equation (8).
- the value of information obtained as a result of decision making is taken into consideration, and as long as information valuable for future decision making can be collected, such action is selected and information is collected. If enough is accumulated, it is possible to make a decision to select an optimal action. Therefore, in such a case, it is possible to determine a maintenance policy that can reduce the maintenance cost in the maintenance of a device such as a new product or part whose model parameters are not sufficiently reliable.
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Abstract
Description
R(A=調整のみ,Y=故障する)=-C1
R(A=部品交換,Y=故障しない)=-C2
R(A=部品交換,Y=故障する)=-C1-C2
このような利得関数Rを用いて、何らかの最適性を満たす行動を自動的に選択する装置が保守方策決定装置である。
P(Y=故障する| X, A=調整のみ)= P(F | X, θ)
P(Y=故障しない| X, A=部品交換)= 1.0
P(Y=故障する| X, A=部品交換)= 0.0
ここで、θは故障モデルPのパラメータである。また、θは結果モデルPのパラメータでもある。
R(X, A=調整のみ)= P(F|X,θ)*(-C1-C2)
すなわち、従来の手法では、与えられた利得関数Rを用いて、モデルパラメータθによって特定された結果モデルPを完全に正しいものと考え、期待利得の最大化によって保守方策(ポリシー)を決定していた。
R(X=2500, A=部品交換)= 1.0*(-C2) = -100
R(X=2500, A=調整のみ)= P(F|X,a=9,b=2)*(-C1-C2) = (1.0-0.89)(-1100) ≒-121となる。ここで、期待利得が最大という基準に従えば、行動期待利得Rの大きな「部品交換」という行動Aを選択することが最適である。
g’(θ|A=部品交換, Y=故障しない) = β(a,b) ‥図4の符号402
g’(θ|A=調整のみ, Y=故障しない) = β(a+1, b) ‥図4の符号403
g’(θ|A=調整のみ, Y=故障する) = β(a, b+1) ‥図4の符号404
とすることができる。ベータ分布では、故障しなかった場合にはaを+1増加させ、故障した場合にはbを+1増加させればよい。
loss(A=調整のみ, a=2, b=9)≒2.5E-7
である。
loss(A=調整のみ, a=100, b=13)≒0.078
である。
a) 100×10 = 1000
b) 1000~2000
c) 2000~3000
d) 3000~4000
e) 4000
となる。
a) 100×3 = 300
b) 300~600
c) 600~900
d) 900~1200
e) 1200
となる。ここで、既に2500回に達した機器は"0"であると見積ることができる。
I(A=部品交換)=0.0
I(A=調整のみ)=81*2.6≒210
となる。
R(X=2500, A=部品交換) + I(X=2500, A=部品交換) = -100 + 0 = -100
R(X=2500,A=調整のみ) + I(X=2500, A=調整のみ) = -121 + 210 = 89
となるので、情報価値を考慮することにより「調整のみ」という行動Aが選択される。
R(X=2500,A=調整のみ) + I(X=2500, A=調整のみ) = -121 + 6.3 =-114.7
となる。したがって、もう十分故障モデル(結果モデル)の学習は進んでいると判断され、情報の価値が相対的に低くなるので「部品交換」という行動Aが選択される。なお、式(8)は単純な足し算ではなく、重み係数を導入して足し合わせても良い。
120‥結果モデルパラメータ分布格納部
130‥行動期待利得算出部
140‥学習後パラメータ分布推定部
150‥利得ロス推定部
150a‥仮定利得ロス算出部
150b‥仮定利得ロス積算部
160‥統計情報格納部
170‥類似意思決定頻度算出部
180‥情報期待利得算出部
190‥保守方策決定部
Claims (6)
- 機器の状態を考慮しつつ保守業務に関する実施可能な複数の行動の中から最適な行動を選択する保守方策決定装置であって、
ある状態におけるある行動の結果に対して価値を割り当てるためにあらかじめ設定された利得関数が格納される第1格納部と、
状態に基づいて行動の結果を予測する結果モデルの確率密度分布が結果モデルパラメータ分布として格納される第2格納部と、
前記利得関数と前記結果モデルパラメータ分布とを用いてそれぞれの行動の結果として得られる期待利得を行動期待利得として算出する第1算出部と、
新たな行動の結果が得られた場合の学習後の前記結果モデルパラメータ分布を学習後パラメータ分布として推定する第1推定部と、
前記利得関数、前記結果モデルパラメータ分布、および前記学習後パラメータ分布から学習の不足によって生じている可能性のある利得の損失を利得ロスとして推定する第2推定部と、
第3格納部に格納される機器の稼働に関する統計情報を用いて、今後の意思決定頻度を類似意思決定頻度として算出する第2算出部と、
前記利得ロスと前記類似意思決定頻度から行動の結果として得られるデータの価値を情報期待利得として算出する第3算出部と、
前記行動期待利得と前記情報期待利得を足し合わせた値が最大となる行動を選択して保守方策を決定する保守方策決定部と、
を有することを特徴とする保守方策決定装置。 - 前記第2格納部には、状態毎に異なるベータ分布の2つのパラメータが前記モデルパラメータ分布として格納されていることを特徴とする請求項1に記載の保守方策決定装置。
- 前記第2推定部は、
前記結果モデルパラメータ分布の所定のパラメータが正しいと仮定した場合の、前記結果モデルパラメータ分布と前記学習後パラメータ分布から学習の不足によって生じている可能性のある利得の損失を仮定利得ロスとして算出する第4算出部と、
前記結果モデルパラメータ分布の確率を重みとして前記仮定利得ロスを積算して前記利得ロスを推定する積算部と、
により構成されていることを特徴とする請求項1に記載の保守方策決定装置。 - 前記第2算出部は、現在意思決定を行おうとしているような状態において今後どの程度の頻度で意思決定を行うかを、一定時間範囲ごとに算出することを特徴とする請求項1に記載の保守方策決定装置。
- 前記第3算出部は、0より大きく1以下の値をとる割引係数を用いて前記類似意思決定頻度に対し重みづけた値を前記利得ロスと掛け合わせることにより、前記情報期待利得を算出することを特徴とする請求項4に記載の保守方策決定装置。
- 機器の状態を考慮しつつ保守業務に関する実施可能な複数の行動の中から最適な行動を選択する保守方策決定プログラムであって、
あらかじめ設定された利得関数が格納される利得関数格納部から取得した前記利得関数と、状態に基づいて行動の結果を予測する結果モデルの確率密度分布が結果モデルパラメータ分布として格納される結果モデルパラメータ分布格納部から取得した結前記果モデルパラメータの確率密度分布、および平均を用いた前記結果モデルとによって行動期待利得を算出する機能と、
行動と選択した結果のそれぞれの値に基づいて、学習後のパラメータ分布候補をリストアップする機能と、
前記利得関数と前記結果モデルパラメータの確率密度分布、および前記学習後パラメータ分布を用いて、行動のそれぞれの要素について、モデルパラメータの学習の結果として期待できる利得の増加を仮定利得ロスとして算出する機能と、
前記結果モデルパラメータの確率密度分布と前記仮定利得ロスを用いて行動の利得ロスを推定する機能と、
統計情報格納部から機器の稼働に関する統計情報を取得して、意思決定の結果得られる情報価値が今後の意思決定でどの程度利用可能なのかを推定する機能と、
前記利得ロスと前記類似意思決定頻度から行動の結果として得られるデータの価値を情報期待利得として算出する機能と、
前記行動期待利得と前記情報期待利得を足し合わせた値が最大となる行動を選択して保守方策を決定する機能と、
を有することを特徴とする保守方策決定プログラム。
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JP2002323921A (ja) * | 2001-04-25 | 2002-11-08 | Mitsubishi Heavy Ind Ltd | プラント保守支援システム及びプラント保守支援方法 |
JP2003099119A (ja) * | 2001-09-25 | 2003-04-04 | Mitsubishi Heavy Ind Ltd | 最適保守計画決定方法 |
JP2004234536A (ja) * | 2003-01-31 | 2004-08-19 | Toshiba Corp | プラント機器の保守管理計画支援方法および装置 |
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WO2019077686A1 (ja) * | 2017-10-17 | 2019-04-25 | 三菱電機株式会社 | エレベータ保守作業支援装置 |
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JPWO2019229946A1 (ja) * | 2018-05-31 | 2020-10-22 | 三菱電機ビルテクノサービス株式会社 | エレベーターの保守作業支援装置 |
KR20210006466A (ko) * | 2018-05-31 | 2021-01-18 | 미쓰비시 덴키 빌딩 테크노 서비스 가부시키 가이샤 | 엘리베이터의 보수 작업 지원 장치 |
KR102269622B1 (ko) | 2018-05-31 | 2021-06-28 | 미쓰비시 덴키 빌딩 테크노 서비스 가부시키 가이샤 | 엘리베이터의 보수 작업 지원 장치 |
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CN111445042A (zh) * | 2020-03-26 | 2020-07-24 | 华润电力技术研究院有限公司 | 一种电厂设备的检修方法、系统及装置 |
CN111445042B (zh) * | 2020-03-26 | 2023-07-11 | 华润电力技术研究院有限公司 | 一种电厂设备的检修方法、系统及装置 |
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JPWO2011036699A1 (ja) | 2013-02-14 |
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