JP6952957B2 - 交換可能エネルギー貯蔵装置に対する需要を予測するためのシステムおよび方法 - Google Patents
交換可能エネルギー貯蔵装置に対する需要を予測するためのシステムおよび方法 Download PDFInfo
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Description
Claims (20)
- 複数の装置交換ステーションを管理する方法であって、
初期期間において前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々からエネルギー貯蔵装置の交換に関する経験的情報を受信するステップであり、前記経験的情報は、特定の期間における前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々についてのエネルギー貯蔵装置の実際の交換回数に関する履歴データ、又は、前記特定の期間における予測需要と前記エネルギー貯蔵装置の実際の交換回数との差に関する履歴データを備える、受信するステップと、
目標期間を決定するステップと、
前記経験的情報に基づいて前記目標期間内の前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々に対応する複数の基準因子を識別するステップであり、前記識別されている各基準因子は、前記経験的情報に基づいて決定されると共に前記各基準因子の相対的重要性を示す関連する重み値を有し、前記基準因子は複数の特性および特性の組み合わせを含み、前記特性はステーション識別情報、環境条件及びイベントの少なくとも一つを含む、識別するステップと、
前記識別されている基準因子と前記重み値とに基づいて、前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々について前記目標期間中のエネルギー貯蔵装置の需要の予測に関する需要情報を決定するステップであり、前記目標期間は前記初期期間より遅い、決定するステップと、
前記目標期間中の需要情報に従って、前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々に対して複数の充電計画を作成するステップと
を含む、方法。 - 前記複数の基準因子は、装置交換ステーションのタイプを含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記重み値は、前記基準因子間の関係の分析に基づいて決定される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記重み値は、前記初期期間における前記実際の交換回数と前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々からのエネルギー貯蔵装置の需要との差を最小にする目的関数に基づいて決定される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記目標期間中の第1の装置交換ステーションの交換可能エネルギー貯蔵装置の予測交換回数を計算するステップをさらに含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記目標期間内の前記第1の装置交換ステーションのエネルギー貯蔵装置の実際の交換回数を受信するステップと、
前記目標期間内の前記第1の装置交換ステーションの前記実際の交換回数および前記予測交換回数を分析するステップと、
分析結果に従って、前記識別されている基準因子の各々に対応する前記重み値を更新するステップと
をさらに含む、請求項5に記載の方法。 - 前記識別されている基準因子の各々に対応する複数の失敗寄与率に基づいて前記重み値を更新するステップをさらに含む、請求項6に記載の方法。
- 前記目標期間は、1日のうちの1時間である、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記目標期間が1日のうちの24時間であり、前記需要情報が1時間ごとに決定される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記複数の特性は、一日のうちの時間、曜日、一ヶ月のうちの日、一年のうちの日、または前記複数の装置交換ステーションの位置を含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記需要情報は、オンラインポアソン回帰またはオンライン最小二乗回帰に基づいて決定される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記受信された経験的情報を分析するときに使用されるべき基準因子の最大数を決定するステップをさらに含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記充電計画の各々は、前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々に配置された前記エネルギー貯蔵装置に対応する複数の充電ルールを含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 複数の装置交換ステーションを管理するサーバシステムであって、
プロセッサであって、
初期期間において前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々からエネルギー貯蔵装置の交換に関する経験的情報を受信することであり、前記経験的情報は、特定の期間における前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々についてのエネルギー貯蔵装置の実際の交換回数に関する履歴データ、又は、前記特定の期間における予測需要と前記エネルギー貯蔵装置の実際の交換回数との差に関する履歴データを備える、受信することと、
目標期間を決定することと、
前記経験的情報に基づいて前記目標期間内の前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々に対応する複数の基準因子を識別することであり、前記識別されている各基準因子は、前記経験的情報に基づいて決定されると共に前記各基準因子の相対的重要性を示す関連する重み値を有し、前記基準因子は複数の特性および特性の組み合わせを含み、前記特性はステーション識別情報、環境条件及びイベントの少なくとも一つを含む、識別することと、
前記識別されている基準因子と前記重み値とに基づいて、前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々について前記目標期間中のエネルギー貯蔵装置の需要の予測に関する需要情報を決定することであり、前記需要情報は、前記装置交換ステーションの各々について、前記目標期間中の交換可能エネルギー貯蔵装置の予測交換回数を示し、前記目標期間は前記初期期間より遅い、決定することと、
前記目標期間中の需要情報に従って、前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々に対して複数の充電計画を作成することと
を行うように構成されている、プロセッサと、
前記複数の充電計画を前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々に送信するように構成されている通信構成要素と
を備える、サーバシステム。 - 前記複数の基準因子は装置交換ステーションのタイプを含み、
前記重み値は、前記基準因子間の関係の分析に基づいて決定される、請求項14に記載のシステム。 - 前記重み値は、前記初期期間における前記実際の交換回数と前記複数の装置交換ステーションの各々からのエネルギー貯蔵装置の需要との差を最小にする目的関数に基づいて決定される、請求項14に記載のシステム。
- 前記プロセッサは、
前記目標期間中の第1の装置交換ステーションについての交換可能エネルギー貯蔵装置の予測交換回数を計算するステップと、
前記目標期間内の前記第1の装置交換ステーションのエネルギー貯蔵装置の実際の交換回数を受信するステップと、
前記目標期間内の前記第1の装置交換ステーションの前記実際の交換回数および前記予測交換回数を分析するステップと、
分析結果に従って、前記識別されている基準因子の各々に対応する前記重み値を更新するステップと
を行うように構成されている、請求項14に記載のシステム。 - 前記目標期間は、1日のうちの1時間である、請求項14に記載のシステム。
- 前記目標期間が1日のうちの24時間であり、前記需要情報が1時間ごとに決定される、請求項14に記載のシステム。
- 前記複数の特性は、一日のうちの時間、曜日、一ヶ月のうちの日、一年のうちの日、または前記複数の装置交換ステーションの位置をさらに含む、請求項14に記載のシステム。
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