JP6726014B2 - Game machine operation prediction method and game hall management system - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a game machine operation prediction method for predicting operation of a game machine installed in a game arcade, and a game hall management system for predicting operation of a game machine.

At the amusement hall, while installing multiple types of amusement machines, we are working to maintain operation by introducing and updating new models one after another. This is because the player's interest in the newly introduced gaming machine is high. However, even if the operating status is good immediately after the introduction, some models maintain the operating status, and the operating status deteriorates in a relatively short period of time.

Therefore, it is necessary to update (or replace with a relatively popular second-hand model) early for models whose operating status deteriorates, and to determine future operating status as soon as possible.

JP, 2006-192033, A JP, 2011-062420, A

Conventionally, the number of outs, which is the number of game media loaded into a gaming machine, has been used as an operation characteristic value that is an index indicating the operation status, and various predictions of the number of outs according to the elapsed days have been performed. ..

For example, in Patent Document 1, in order to reduce the predicted out number error, the number of outs is predicted by calculating data that can decrease with the lapse of a period based on a coefficient derived from the elapsed days and the sample data. However, in the first week and the second week after the introduction of the new model, the number of outs of all the gaming machines has remained relatively high, and there is no relation to the tendency of the number of outs thereafter. An example thereof is shown in FIG. In addition, even with the same model, the fall in the number of outs in the first week of introduction and, for example, the fall in the number of outs in the fourth week after introduction are not uniform, and the outfall decreases with the number of days the game machine is installed The coefficient of numbers cannot be fixed uniformly.

Further, in Patent Document 2, a predicted contribution rate, which is a prediction of a contribution rate that is a ratio of the out number of each model to the total average out number, is calculated using a regression analysis method. It is extremely difficult to predict the original number of outs from the data of the first week of introduction by regression analysis.

On the other hand, even if the clear reason is not clear, it is possible to predict the future operation status of the new model to some extent from the empirical rule, but such empirical rule changes the surrounding environment of the amusement park. The current situation is that it cannot be utilized.

The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and it is possible to accurately predict the operation of a newly introduced model after a certain period of time has elapsed in a game arcade where a plurality of types of game machines are installed. (EN) Provided are a game machine operation prediction method and a game hall management system for predicting the game machine operation.

In order to solve the above problems, the invention described in claim 1 is
At a game hall where multiple types of gaming machines are installed, using a database that records multiple types of gaming information for gaming models introduced in the past in a time series,
It is a gaming machine operation prediction method that predicts the operation of a newly introduced model after a certain period of time after introduction,
From the database, for each model, multiple types of game information acquired during the first period, which is within 7 days of the initial introduction , are extracted as a data group, the data group is numerically calculated, and the initial state of introduction for each model A model-specific initial characteristic calculation step of calculating a plurality of initial characteristic values according to
From the database, for each model, the game information acquired during the second period , which is one day from the fourth week to the eighth week after the introduction , is extracted, and the operating characteristic value as the index of the operating status is calculated. Operation characteristic calculation step for each model,
An analysis step of obtaining a multiple regression equation by extracting a predetermined number of at least one or more initial characteristic values having a high correlation with the operating characteristic value as an explanatory variable;
For a newly introduced model, a newly introduced model explanatory variable calculation step of calculating the predetermined number of the initial characteristic values serving as the explanatory variable from a plurality of types of game information accumulated in the database in the first period,
With respect to a newly introduced model, an operating characteristic prediction step of predicting an operating characteristic value in the second period by the multiple regression equation using the explanatory variable, is a gaming machine operation predicting method.

According to the present invention, the future operation status of the new model, which was performed based on the experience rules of each amusement hall, can be performed based on the past data, and an arithmetic expression suitable for each amusement hall can be obtained.

The invention described in claim 2 is the gaming machine operation prediction method according to claim 1,
The game machine operation prediction method is characterized in that statistics values of a plurality of types of game information are used as the initial characteristic values.

According to the present invention, the future operation can be predicted by using a plurality of statistics, so that the future prediction can be performed with accuracy that cannot be obtained only by the empirical rule.

The invention according to claim 3 is the gaming machine operation prediction method according to claim 1 or 2,
The gaming machine operation prediction method is characterized in that the predetermined number, which is the number of explanatory variables, is any of 2 to 10.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, it is possible to prevent an adverse effect due to complication of the arithmetic expression while performing accurate prediction .

The invention according to claim 4 is a game hall in which a plurality of types of game machines are installed, and is provided with a game hall management computer for acquiring a plurality of types of game information from each gaming machine.
It is a game hall management system in which the game hall management computer performs the game machine operation prediction according to any one of claims 1 to 3 .

According to the present invention, in a game arcade equipped with a game arcade management computer, it is possible to perform the gaming machine operation prediction described in claims 1 to 3 without making a large capital investment.

According to the present invention, in a game arcade where a plurality of types of game machines are installed, it is possible to accurately predict the operation of a newly introduced model after a certain period of time has elapsed since the introduction.

1 is a schematic diagram showing an overall configuration of a game hall management system according to an embodiment of the present invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the information path of the game hall management system which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows (a) the blank screen at the time of selecting an initial characteristic value from a data group based on one Embodiment of this invention, and (b) the stage which selects and performs an initial characteristic value on the same screen. It is a figure which shows the modification of the blank screen at the time of selecting an initial characteristic value from a data group based on one Embodiment of this invention, and (b) the stage which selects and performs an initial characteristic value on the same screen. 6 is a screen showing a list of initial characteristic values according to an embodiment of the present invention and selecting a new initial characteristic value by combining the initial characteristic values. It is a figure explaining the process which calculates|requires the initial characteristic value with high correlation with a future operating condition using the data which consists of various initial characteristic values for every model based on one Embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the figure which plotted the relation between the specific initial characteristic value and future operation characteristic value according to one embodiment of the present invention according to model. It is an example of the figure which plotted according to the model which shows the relation between the operating characteristic value (operating characteristic operation value) calculated by operation and the actual operating characteristic value concerning one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an out number transition showing an example in which a correlation between the out number transition in the initial stage of introduction and a future out number is low.

First, a game hall management system 1 which is an embodiment of a game hall management system according to the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. In the present embodiment, the gaming machine managed by the gaming hall management system 1 is assumed to be composed of the pachinko gaming machine 2a and the pachi-slot gaming machine 2b, but the gaming machine is not limited to this. For example, it may be configured with only the pachinko gaming machine 2a or only the pachi-slot gaming machine 2b. In the present embodiment, a case of managing the pachinko gaming machine 2a will be described.

As shown in FIG. 1, the game hall management system 1 acquires and manages game information of the game machines installed in the game hall and utilizes the information to utilize the game hall management.

The game hall management system 1 includes a platform computer 3 provided for each of a plurality of gaming machines (pachinko gaming machines 2a and/or pachislot gaming machines 2b), and a pachinko ball (pachislot machine) provided as a gaming medium for each gaming machine. The gaming machine 2b is provided with a medal) rental machine 4, an in-island computer 5, a card information management computer 6 and a game hall management computer 7.

The pachinko gaming machine 2a, which is a gaming machine, launches a pachinko ball (a medal in the pachi-slot gaming machine 2b), which is a gaming medium, by operating the handle, and a certain number of shots are put into a specific winning opening. It is a gaming machine that pays out pachinko balls. Here, the pachinko balls (medals in the pachi-slot gaming machine 2b) that are fired by operating the handle are called "out balls," and the paid-out pachinko balls (medals in the pachi-slot gaming machine 2b) are called "safe balls." ".

If the pachinko gaming machine 2a is a pachinko gaming machine called a digital pachi which is the current mainstream, the pachinko gaming machine 2a normally includes a starting opening, a big winning opening, and an effect display in addition to the winning opening. In the pachinko gaming machine 2a which is a digital pachi, when a pachinko ball is thrown into the starting slot, the gaming machine computer in the pachinko gaming machine 2a performs a lottery, and when it becomes a special prize (big hit), the normally closed big winning slot is It will be temporarily open. In addition, after the special prize, it will change to a certain state at a certain rate. The probability variation state is a state in which the probability of becoming a prize after the pachinko ball is thrown into the starting opening is higher than usual. In addition, the effect indicator displays an effect pattern composed of numbers and characters to show the player that a pachinko ball has been inserted into the starting opening and the result of the lottery, or to inform that it is in a sudden change state. It is a thing.

The pachinko gaming machine 2a constitutes a so-called "island" that is a collection of a plurality of machine bases and is arranged in the game hall. The pachinko gaming machine 2a is controlled by a gaming machine computer (not shown) provided inside and can acquire various kinds of gaming information. The pachinko gaming machine 2a has individual gaming machine numbers (in the present embodiment, gaming machine number 1 on island A, gaming machine number 2, gaming machine number 3... gaming machine number 14, gaming machine number 15 on island B, gaming machine). Machine number 16... Game machine number 28, game machine number 29 in island C... Game machine number 42) are allocated.

The platform computer 3 acquires the game information of the pachinko gaming machine 2 a from the gaming machine computer and sends it to the island computer 5. In the present embodiment, the game information is output from an outbox that collects the pachinko balls thrown into the pachinko gaming machine 2a, an out signal that is output for each predetermined number of out balls, and a predetermined number of pachinko balls that have been paid out. There are a safe signal output every time, a start signal output when a pachinko ball is thrown into the start opening, a probability change signal output in a probability change state, and the like. In this embodiment, the platform computer 3 is provided for each pachinko gaming machine 2a. The base computer 3 is connected to a gaming machine computer (not shown), and is configured to acquire the gaming information of the pachinko gaming machine 2a. Further, the platform computer 3 is registered with the gaming machine number of the corresponding pachinko gaming machine 2a. It should be noted that the base computer 3 may be provided for each of a plurality of gaming machines.

The ball lending machine 4, which is a terminal included in the game hall management system 1, is a game medium lending machine that lends pachinko balls, which are game media. The ball lending machine 4 is a terminal that reads out information from a magnetic card or an IC card, which is a recording medium, and rents out pachinko balls. The ball lending machine 4 is often installed in each pachinko gaming machine 2a. That is, the ball lending machine 4 is provided with a corresponding pachinko gaming machine 2a and is provided for each pachinko gaming machine 2a. The ball lending machine 4 is a member card formed of a magnetic card or an IC card, which is a recording medium in which information for identifying a registered player (hereinafter, simply referred to as “member”) is recorded, or the card itself. A reading device 4a for taking in a general card (prepaid card) on which a card ID for identification is recorded and for reading card information associated with each card, and a depositing device for taking in (depositing) money and generating deposit amount information. 4b, a ball lending device 4c for paying out pachinko balls based on the deposit balance information of each card and the deposit amount information generated by the depositing device 4b, and an operation device (not shown) for performing various operations and input of a personal identification number and the like. The ball lending machine 4 is configured so that an individual ball lending machine number is allocated and the ball lending machine 4 can be identified.

The general card is issued when money is taken into the depositing device 4b in a state where the card is not inserted into the reading device 4a, and the deposit amount captured at the time of issuance is recorded as deposit balance information. When issuing a general card, as described above, each card is recorded with a card number for identifying the card itself. When the ball lending operation is performed with a general card, the deposit balance is reduced by a predetermined number and the corresponding number of pachinko balls is paid out. The predetermined number to be subtracted from the deposit balance is an integral multiple of a fixed number and can be reduced within the range of the deposit balance. With a general card whose deposit balance information is below a certain number, it is not possible to pay out pachinko balls by reducing the deposit balance, but paying out by adding money to the deposit device 4b and adding the deposit amount to the deposit balance. You can On the other hand, when the number of pachinko balls paid out by inserting into a specific winning hole increases, or when you want to move to another gaming machine, if you count the number of pachinko balls, the counting result will be added as the same-day savings amount of the card information. To be done.

If either the deposit balance information or the current day savings is not 0, the card ID for identifying each card itself, the general card recording the deposit balance information and the current day savings is ejected from the reading device 4a, and another game is played. It can be used by loading it into the reading device 4a of the machine. On the other hand, when both the deposit balance information and the current day's savings are 0, the general card has disappeared from the reading device 4a. Therefore, in this state, when money is taken into the depositing device 4b and when the paid-out pachinko balls are counted to be stored on the day, a general card with a new card ID is issued. To be done.

The membership card is issued after undergoing certain administrative procedures at the amusement hall, and information for identifying the member who holds the membership card, the deposit balance information and the same-day savings are recorded as with a general card. Along with this, the accumulated balls are recorded. The information for identifying the member recorded in the membership card may be only the personal ID, but may include the member name, sex, age, living area (municipalities), and the visit time, stay time, total It may be configured to include information such as a staying time, the number of visits to the store, the date and time of the previous visit to the store, and points of visit.

By loading the membership card into the reading device 4a, the membership card can be used in the same manner as a general card, and it is also possible to carry out the above-described ball accumulation. Also, unlike a general card, the membership card remains in the reading device 4a even when the deposit balance information and the amount of coins accumulated on the day become 0, and exists in the reading device 4a unless discharged from the reading device 4a. This is the same even if the number of stored balls is 0.

In addition, in the present specification, when describing matters common to both the membership card and the general card, they are simply referred to as a card.

The in-island computer 5 that constitutes the game hall management system 1 collects and holds game information of the pachinko gaming machines 2a that constitute the island. The island computer 5 may actually have a configuration in which a CPU, a ROM, a RAM, a HDD, and the like are connected by a bus, or may be a configuration including a one-chip LSI and the like. The computer 5 on the island is installed on each island in the game arcade. In this embodiment, the island computers 5 are arranged on the respective islands, but the present invention is not limited to this, and a plurality of islands may be managed by one island computer 5.

The in-island computer 5 is connected to a platform computer 3 that is connected to a plurality of pachinko gaming machines 2a forming an island via a network system or the like built in the game arcade. The island computer 5 obtains the individual gaming machine number of the pachinko gaming machine 2a from the base computer 3 corresponding to each pachinko gaming machine 2a forming the island, and also obtains the gaming information of the pachinko gaming machine 2a from the base computer 3 for a predetermined time. It can be collected and held for each item.

The card information management computer 6 constituting the amusement hall management system 1 acquires and manages the information of the membership card or the general card. The card information management computer 6 is composed of a general-purpose computer such as a personal computer. The card information management computer 6 may actually have a configuration in which a CPU, a ROM, a RAM, a HDD, and the like are connected by a bus, or may be configured by a one-chip LSI or the like.

The card information management computer 6 is connected to a plurality of ball lending machines 4 in the game arcade via a network system or the like built in the game arcade. Further, the card information management computer 6 uses the ball lender numbers of the plurality of ball lenders 4, the presence/absence of a card read by the reading device 4a, the member's individual ID read from the membership card by the reading device 4a or the card ID read from the general card. It is possible to obtain information such as the deposit balance information and the same-day deposit, the deposit amount information generated by the depositing device 4b, and the update information is transmitted from the reading device 4a and the depositing device 4b when the respective changes occur. As another embodiment, the member's personal ID or the card ID read from the general card, the deposit balance information, the same-day deposit, and the deposit amount information generated by the deposit device 4b may be acquired via the platform computer 3. In addition, the card information management computer 6 is associated with the member's individual ID and records the member's member name, gender, age, living area (municipalities), and the number of balls stored, as well as visiting time, staying time, and total stay. Personal information such as time, number of visits, date and time of previous visit, and points of visit is recorded.

The game hall management computer 7, which is a management device that constitutes the game hall management system 1, mainly manages the game information of the pachinko gaming machine 2a and the personal information of the members. The game hall management computer 7 is composed of a general-purpose computer or the like. The amusement hall management computer 7 may have a configuration in which a CPU, a ROM, a RAM, a HDD, and the like are connected by a bus, or may be a configuration including a one-chip LSI or the like. The game hall management computer 7 includes a display device 7a that displays the acquired information. In addition, in the present embodiment, the card information management computer 6 and the game hall management computer 7 are configured independently, but the invention is not limited to this.

The amusement hall management computer 7 is prerecorded with position information and a gaming machine number of each pachinko gaming machine 2a in the gaming hall, a unit price of a pachinko ball which is a game medium, and a ball lending number of the ball lending machine 4. In addition, the game hall management computer 7 is prerecorded with combination information that associates the position information of each pachinko gaming machine 2a, the gaming machine number of each pachinko gaming machine 2a, and the ball lending number of the ball lending machine 4. Further, the game hall management computer 7 stores a program for displaying the acquired information on the display device 7a.

The game hall management computer 7 stores various programs for acquiring and processing information from the plurality of island computers 5 and the card information management computer 6. Specifically, the amusement hall management computer 7 stores a program for acquiring the gaming machine numbers and gaming information of the respective pachinko gaming machines 2a from the plurality of island computers 5 at predetermined time intervals. Further, the game hall management computer 7 reads from the card information management computer 6 the personal information of the member or the deposit balance information of the general card and the card ID, the deposit amount information generated by the deposit device 4b, and the ball lending machine 4 that reads these information. Stores a program for obtaining the ball rental machine number.

The game hall management computer 7 is connected to a plurality of island computers 5 via a network system or the like built in the game hall, and the game machine numbers of the pachinko game machines 2a acquired by each island computer 5 and the game of the pachinko game machine 2a. Information can be acquired every predetermined time.

The game hall management computer 7 has a large-capacity storage device and has a function of recording various game information acquired every predetermined time as a database in time series. Further, the game hall management computer 7 may be provided with a function of processing the game information acquired every predetermined time and recording it in the database as new game information. For example, "base" indicating the operating state of each gaming machine is calculated from the number of safe balls/the number of out balls and recorded in the database.

The amusement hall management computer 7 is connected to the card information management computer 6, and the personal information of the member or the deposit balance information and the card ID of the general card from the card information management computer 6 and the deposit amount information generated by the deposit device 4b and these information. The ball lending machine number of the ball lending machine 4 that has read can be acquired.

The game hall management computer 7 is a reading device of the ball lending machine 4 corresponding to the game information of the pachinko gaming machine 2a based on the acquired game machine number of each pachinko gaming machine 2a and the ball lending machine number of each ball lending machine 4. The personal information based on the personal ID of the member read by 4a or the deposit balance information of the general card and various information based on the card ID and the deposit amount information generated by the deposit device 4b are selected and displayed on the display device 7a. You can Note that some functions of the game hall management computer 7 may be operated by a terminal device connected to the game hall management computer 7 via a wireless LAN or the like.

Hereinafter, the flow of various information acquisition in the embodiment of the game hall management system 1 according to the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

As shown in FIG. 2, in the gaming hall management system 1, the gaming machine computer incorporated in each gaming machine 2a in step S11 acquires the gaming information, and the process proceeds to step S12.

In step S12, in the gaming machine management system 1, each island computer 5 acquires the gaming machine number and gaming information of each gaming machine 2a in the island, and the process proceeds to step 13.

In step S21, in the game hall management system 1, the reading device 4a of each ball lending machine 4 acquires the individual ID of the membership card or the deposit balance information of the general card, and moves the step to step S22.

In step S22, in the game hall management system 1, the card information management computer 6 acquires the individual ID of the membership card or the deposit balance information of the general card from the reading device 4a of each ball lending machine 4, and moves the step to step 13. To do.

In step 13, in the game hall management system 1, the game hall management computer 7 obtains the game information and the game machine number of each pachinko gaming machine 2 and each pachislot gaming machine 3 in the island from each island computer 5 from the island computer 5. To do. Further, in the game hall management system 1, the game hall management computer 7 acquires the personal information of the member card and the deposit balance information of the general card from the card information management computer 6. In the game hall management computer 7, the model name of the pachinko gaming machine 2a (and the pachislot gaming machine 2b) is stored in association with the gaming machine number. When the model is updated, the model name data is stored. It is rewritten and the update date and time is recorded. Note that such data rewriting may be performed by an input unit such as a keyboard (not shown) attached to the game hall management computer 7, or may be read from a database that holds model update information.

The above-described transition from step S11 to step S13 and transition from step S21 to step S13 are performed every predetermined time, and the gaming information of each pachinko gaming machine 2a is stored in the gaming hall management computer 7 in the gaming hall management computer 7. It is recorded on the device. The game information to be recorded becomes a database associated with the date and time. By using such a database, it is possible to extract the change over time in the game information for each model. Although the game information acquired by the platform computer 3 has been mainly described so far, it is also possible to obtain the game information from the information acquired by the ball lending machine 4. For example, whether or not a card is inserted in the reading device 4a, and whether the card is a general card or a membership card may be used as the game information.

The information acquired in step 13 is displayed on the display device 7a in step S14. Here, the information obtained in step 13 includes not only the information obtained from the island computer 5 and the card information management computer 6, but also a database and data obtained by processing the obtained information and displaying it. The screen also includes setting various calculation conditions. When setting various calculation conditions and the like, an input unit (not shown) attached to the game hall management computer 7 is used.

Hereinafter, a procedure of performing operation prediction of the second period after the lapse of a certain period after the introduction from the game information of the first period at the initial stage of introduction by the game hall management system 1 will be described.

First, a model-specific initial characteristic calculation step of calculating an initial characteristic value related to the state of the first period for each model from various game information at the initial stage of introduction using a database recorded and accumulated in the past will be described. Here, the first period in the initial period of introduction is at most one week, that is, seven days or less.

The initial characteristic value is selected from a data group in which various game information of the first period is recorded, and an example of a display screen at the time of selection is shown in FIG. FIG. 3A shows a state in which the initial characteristic value Dn (n is an integer, for example, any one of 01 to 99) is determined, which is a method of combining items, selection dates, and extracted values. There is. Here, the item is included in the data group acquired by the amusement hall management computer 7 from the island computer 5 or the card information management computer 6, or the type of data obtained by processing the data in the data group. Is. The selection date is to select an appropriate period as the first period, and the selection date may be from the second day as in the selection example in FIG. 3B, or may be selected every other day. The extracted value indicates the calculation method for the data of the data group in the range corresponding to the item and the selection date, and a statistical amount such as a standard deviation may be selected in addition to the total value and the average value. As for the selection date, not only the number of days after the introduction but also a function that allows selection by day of the week as shown in FIG. 4A (the selection example is FIG. 4B) may be added.

Furthermore, a new initial characteristic value Mn (n is an integer, for example, any one of 01 to 99) may be obtained by combining the initial characteristic values sequentially selected from D01. It may be switched to. In FIG. 5, initial characteristic values (Dn or Mn) or numerical values are input to X, Y, and Z, and arithmetic expressions such as four arithmetic operations are input to F1 and F2 to calculate new initial characteristic values. ..

After selecting various initial characteristic values in this way, the game hall management computer 7 extracts the data group of the first period for each model from the database and calculates the initial characteristic value for each model. The result is a list of initial characteristic values for each model, as shown on the left side of FIG. In this embodiment, the operator has selected the initial characteristic values, but it is also possible to select all and automatically extract only the initial characteristic values having a strong correlation with the operating characteristic values in the system.

Next, a model-specific operation characteristic value calculation step of extracting the game information acquired in the second period after a certain period of time has elapsed after introduction for each model and calculating an operation characteristic value as an index of the operation status will be described.

In the operation characteristic value calculation step for each model, how to select the second period after the lapse of a certain period after the introduction depends on the judgment of the amusement hall manager, but it is necessary to set about one day for one to two months after the introduction. Good to use as a guide. That is, it is preferable to extract the game information for one day from the fourth week to the eighth week after the introduction. By the way, as the operation characteristic value used as an index of the operation status, the number of out balls, which easily reflects the operation rate of the gaming machine, is appropriate. However, the number is not limited to the number of out-balls, for example, the time when the card is inserted in the reading device 4a is also a guide for the operating status, and an index suitable for each game hall may be selected from the game information. The amusement hall management computer 7 extracts the data group of the second period for each model from the database and calculates the operating characteristic value for each model.

Next, the analysis step will be described. In the analysis step, first, the relationship between each initial characteristic value and the operating characteristic value is examined for the model that has obtained both the initial characteristic value and the operating characteristic value obtained previously. For example, as shown in FIG. 7, the correlation between the specific initial characteristic value Dn and the operating characteristic value is obtained. In FIG. 7, each point corresponds to an individual model, and by using the initial characteristic value Dn as a variable, regression analysis with the operating characteristic value can be performed. In the regression analysis, the correlation coefficient is obtained, and the correlation coefficient with the operating characteristic is obtained for all the initial characteristics. An example of displaying the result is shown in the table on the right side of FIG. The circled numbers on the right side of this table are the ranks indicating the degree of correlation between each initial characteristic value and the operating characteristic value, and from the higher rank (1 is the highest, and 2 and 3 below). (Continued) Candidates for explanatory variables when obtaining multiple regression equations.

The number of explanatory variables may be one if the correlation coefficient is extremely high, but is preferably two or more from the viewpoint of improving reliability as a multiple regression equation. However, in order to avoid over-learning due to an increase in explanatory variables, it is generally desirable to use an explanatory variable up to 1/10 of the data amount, but it is desirable to set the upper limit to about 10 in order to improve reliability. When obtaining a multiple regression equation, the equation may be obtained by adopting each in the order of high correlation coefficient, but for example, a multiple regression equation combining several (about 2 to 5) from 10 candidates is obtained, A combination of an operating characteristic value obtained by the multiple regression equation (hereinafter referred to as an operating characteristic calculation value) and an initial characteristic value having a high correlation coefficient of the actual operating characteristic value may be selected as an explanatory variable. FIG. 8 shows an example showing the relationship between the operating characteristic calculation value and the actual operating characteristic value. In FIG. 8, each point corresponds to an individual model.

When two or more explanatory variables are selected, correct results may not be obtained when the explanatory variables have a strong correlation. Therefore, the system of this embodiment has a function of preliminarily analyzing whether there is a strong correlation between explanatory variables called multicollinearity and narrowing down the explanatory variable candidates. In the above description, the operator may narrow down the explanatory variables from the explanatory variable candidates, but the game hall management computer 7 may automatically narrow down the explanatory variables from the explanatory variable candidates. At that time, even if the number of explanatory variable candidates is increased, for example, if the improvement of the correlation coefficient is less than 0.1, the explanatory variable can be narrowed down by the process of not adding the explanatory variable candidate.

In the above description, the candidate for the explanatory variable is selected from the information obtained from the island computer 5 and the card information management computer 6, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the information obtained by the amusement hall management computer 7 from the island computer 5 Only the explanatory variables may be candidates. Further, information such as the weather, which is different from the information obtained from the island computer 5 or the card information management computer 6, may be registered in the database and used as a new explanatory variable candidate.

The multiple regression equation F thus obtained can be used in the operation characteristic prediction step of predicting the future operation status when a new model of the pachinko gaming machine 2a is introduced. That is, regarding the newly introduced model, a predetermined number of initial characteristics as explanatory variables are obtained from the data group accumulated in the game hall management computer 7 during the first period and set as explanatory variables (newly introduced model explanatory variable calculation step). By applying this explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation F, the operating characteristic calculation value for predicting the operating characteristic value in the second period can be obtained (operating characteristic predicting step).

As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to predict the future operation status of the newly introduced game machine based on the past data. Further, the present invention can be carried out in a game arcade equipped with a game arcade management computer without making a large capital investment, and can make a prediction suitable for each game arcade.

1 Game hall management system 2a Pachinko machine 2b Pachislot machine 3 Computers 4 Ball rental machine (game media rental machine)
4a Reading device 4b Deposit device 5 Island computer 6 Card information management computer 7 Game hall management computer 7a Display device

Claims (4)

At a game hall where multiple types of gaming machines are installed, using a database that records multiple types of gaming information for gaming models introduced in the past in a time series,
It is a gaming machine operation prediction method that predicts the operation of a newly introduced model after a certain period of time after introduction,
From the database, for each model, multiple types of game information acquired during the first period, which is within 7 days of the initial introduction , are extracted as a data group, the data group is numerically calculated, and the initial state of introduction for each model A model-specific initial characteristic calculation step of calculating a plurality of initial characteristic values according to
From the database, for each model, the game information acquired during the second period , which is one day from the fourth week to the eighth week after the introduction , is extracted, and the operating characteristic value as the index of the operating status is calculated. Operation characteristic calculation step for each model,
An analysis step of obtaining a multiple regression equation by extracting a predetermined number of at least one or more initial characteristic values having a high correlation with the operating characteristic value as an explanatory variable;
For a newly introduced model, a newly introduced model explanatory variable calculation step of calculating the predetermined number of the initial characteristic values serving as the explanatory variable from a plurality of types of game information accumulated in the database in the first period,
A game machine operation prediction method comprising: an operation characteristic prediction step of predicting an operation characteristic value in the second period by the multiple regression equation using the explanatory variable for a newly introduced model. The gaming machine operation prediction method according to claim 1,
A game machine operation prediction method, wherein statistics values of a plurality of types of game information are used as the initial characteristic values. The gaming machine operation prediction method according to claim 1 or 2,
The gaming machine operation prediction method, wherein the predetermined number, which is the number of the explanatory variables, is any of 2 to 10. In a game hall where multiple types of game machines are installed, equipped with a game hall management computer that acquires multiple types of game information from individual gaming machines,
A game hall management system, wherein the game hall management computer performs the game machine operation prediction according to any one of claims 1 to 3 .

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