JP4810890B2 - Measure decision support device, method and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an apparatus, a method, and a program for evaluating an effect of a measure to be executed when making an investment decision on a plurality of measures, and determining an investment realization order in consideration of constraint conditions and future uncertainties. .

  As a prior art, as disclosed in Patent Document 1, the policy prioritization method that shows high-performance measures without abundant information by formalizing and sharing the tacit knowledge of each individual policy-maker as a whole company There is.

  Further, as disclosed in Patent Document 2, there is a scheduling method for scheduling with a margin for the delivery date while giving priority to the delivery date.

JP 2002-269329 A Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 7-21264

  However, in Patent Document 1, since the knowledge about each measure is shared and utilized, the measure performance is calculated, and the implementation order of the measure is determined by the person in charge by showing the measure with high performance. The priority of was not considered.

  Further, in Patent Document 2, scheduling is performed based on temporal constraints, but constraints on the budget, personnel, and order between measures are not taken into account, and there may be contradictions in the schedule. .

  An object of the present invention is to provide an apparatus, a method, and a program that make it easy for a decision maker and related parties to determine a measure by displaying a measure having a high degree of achievement of management in accordance with the execution time.

  The present invention reads a plurality of management issues to be achieved and a plurality of measure names for realizing them, reads management contribution weights indicating the degree of contribution of the management issues to corporate management, and reads the management issues and the measures. Read the route indicating the relationship, read the task achievement weight indicating the importance of the measure for the management issue for the route, and determine the management achievement indicating the importance of each measure from the management contribution weight and the issue achievement weight This makes it possible to consider the relationship of measures to management issues when determining the order in which measures are realized.

  In addition, it is possible to obtain a measure implementation order without contradiction by taking into account time constraints, personnel constraints, budget constraints, and inter-measure constraints.

  As described above, according to the present invention, when determining the order of realization of a plurality of measures, the management issues to be achieved, the measures for realizing them, and the weight indicating the relationship between them indicate the importance of each measure. Since the degree of management achievement is calculated and displayed, and the decision-maker and the related parties can recognize the degree of management achievement of each measure, it is possible to easily determine the measure. In other words, by displaying measures with a high degree of management achievement together with the execution time, it is possible to facilitate the decision making of the measures for the decision maker and the related parties.

  In addition, since it is possible to calculate the realization order based on time constraints, budget constraints, personnel constraints, introduction order constraints, exclusive measure constraints, etc., it is possible to obtain the realization order of measures without contradiction.

  An embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

  By using this method, an investment decision maker who decides the order of realization of multiple measures should set the relationship between management issues and measures, and set the constraint conditions to determine the order of realization of measures without contradiction. Is possible.

  In the first embodiment, before the order of measures is determined, a management issue summary table showing the relationship between the management issues and the measures is constructed, and the investment realization order of each measure is calculated by setting constraint conditions.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the system includes a management device summary table and each weight, a display device 101 that displays information such as constraint input items, measure realization order, management issues and measure names, weights, An input device 102 that reads the setting of constraint conditions, a computer 103 that calculates the degree of management achievement of each measure, and calculates the achievement level of measures using the degree of management achievement and the constraint conditions, and solves management problems and management issues The management problem organizing table database 104 that stores the measures and the relations thereof and the constraint condition database 105 that stores the constraint conditions. The computer 103 includes a storage device and a processing device that can access the storage device. The storage device in the computer 103 has a management problem organization table database 104 and a constraint condition database 105. The processing device in the computer 103 realizes each step by processing data and files according to a program.

  The processing of the first embodiment will be described based on the flowchart of FIG. First, the general flow will be described, and then each will be described in detail.

  In Example 1, as shown in FIG. 3, the relationship between management issues and measures is divided into three layers with one intermediate issue sandwiched between management issues and measures. Calculates the management achievement level of the measure. Here, it is set as the management subject 301, the approach subject 302, and the measure 303. The relationship diagram of FIG. 3 is referred to as a management problem arrangement table. First, in step 201, the management task, the challenge task, and the name of the measure are read from the input device 102, respectively. In addition, it reads from the input device 102 by accepting selection of each problem / measure, using a path that is related between the management problem / work problem and between the problem / measure. In step 202, the problem / measure and route are displayed. By repeating steps 201 and 202 until all issues, measures, and routes are read, the investment decision-maker creates a management issue summary table that shows the relationship between the management issues for management and the measures to achieve them. To do. Next, in step 203, the weight value indicating the degree of contribution to the higher-level task is read from the input device 102 between the management task and between the management task / task task and between the task task / measure. Next, in step 204, a management achievement level for management of each measure is calculated. Next, in step 205, the management achievement level of each measure is displayed. Next, in step 206, an input reception screen for time constraints, resource constraints, and inter-measure constraints is displayed on the display device 101, and each constraint is read from the input device 102. In step 207, the measure implementation rank is calculated so that the constraint condition is satisfied and the accumulation of management achievement is maximized as a whole. Next, in step 208, information on the road map indicating the investment order of the measure is calculated, and in step 209, the measure road map is displayed on the display device 101.

  Next, each step will be described in detail.

In step 201, as shown in FIG. 3, the name of the management problem 301 to be achieved by the company is read each time the management problem addition button 304 is pressed by the input device 102, and the computer 103 displays the management problem as shown in FIG. Each time the task addition button 305 is pressed by the input device 102 to write the name of the task 302 for achieving each management task 301 by writing in the management task table 401 of the summary table database 104, the computer 103 moves the task table 402. And the name of the measure 303 for achieving each approach task 302 is read every time the measure addition button 306 is pressed by the input device 102, and the computer 103 writes it in the measure table 403. Furthermore, when it is determined by the investment decision-maker that there is a relationship between the management task 301 and the approach task 302 or between the approach task 302 and the measure 303, the path 501 indicating the relationship is related as shown in FIG. By accepting selection of a certain problem / measure, it is read by the input device 102, and the computer 103 writes it in the management problem sorting table database 104. At this time, the route 501 indicating the relationship may read a route with a plurality of issues / measures for one issue. Next, in step 202, the management problem 301, the challenge problem 302, the measure 303 and the route 501 are displayed on the display device 101. By repeating steps 201 and 202 until all issues / measures / routes are read, the investment decision-maker can build a management issue summary table, and measures to achieve the management issues and management issues It becomes possible to clarify the relationship with. Next, at step 203, as shown in FIG. 6, weights indicating the degree of contribution to the higher-level task are read between the management task 301, between the management task 301 and the task 302, and between the task 302 and the measure 303, respectively. They are called management contribution weight 601, management problem achievement 602, and work assignment achievement 603, and read by the input device 102. The computer 103 reads the management contribution weight column in the management assignment table of the management assignment summary database 104, or the action assignment table. Write in the management task achievement level column or the action task achievement level column of the measure table. The management contribution weight 601 is a value indicating how much contribution is made to corporate management when a management problem is achieved. The management task achievement degree 602 is a value indicating how much the business task contributes to the management task when the task task is achieved. The task task achievement degree 603 is a value indicating how much the task task contributes to the task task when the measure is executed. For example, a weight indicating the relation between a certain arbitrary problem and the related lower-level problems or measures is set to a total value of 100%. Next, in step 204, as shown in FIG. If the set of related task issues No. in the measure table 403 resolved by measure i is Ui, and the set of related management issues No. in the task table 402 solved by the element uij of Ui is Vij, then the management issues An arbitrary route Pijk that associates a policy with a measure is a route that connects the element uij of the set Ui of the measure i and the approach task No. and the element vijk of the set Vij of the management task No. At this time, if the management contribution weight on the route Pijk is w _1Pijk , the management task achievement level is w _2Pijk , and the approach task achievement level is w _3Pijk , the weight W _{Pijk of the} route Pijk is calculated as in _Equation 1.

  In addition, Formula 1 is a case where the number of hierarchies is set to 3 with a management subject, an approach subject, a measure, and when the number of hierarchies is set to h, it calculates like Formula 2.

At this time, the management achievement degree Ii of an arbitrary measure i is calculated as shown in _Equation 3 using the weights W _Pijk of a plurality of routes Pijk including the measure i.

  Next, in step 205, the management achievement 701 is displayed on the display device 101 as shown in FIG. This makes it possible to express the importance of the measures considered by the investment decision-maker for corporate management as the degree of achievement of management, which can be used to determine the investment realization order.

Next, in step 206, the time constraint, resource constraint, and measure constraint are read by the input device 102, and the computer 103 writes them in the constraint condition database 105 as shown in FIG. FIG. 10 shows an outline of these constraint conditions. The time constraint includes an overall planning period A and a measure introduction period Ei. The overall plan period A is a period that is an object of the investment plan, and the measure introduction period Ei is a period required for introduction of measure i (i: measure number). Resource constraints include the overall budget Bj (j = 1, 2,..., A), the overall personnel Cj (j = 1, 2,..., A), the measure budget Fi, and the measure personnel Gi. The total budget Bj is the investment budget amount for fiscal year j of the entire investment. The total personnel Cj is the planned personnel for fiscal year j for the entire investment. The necessary budget and personnel. In addition, restrictions between measures include introduction order Hik and exclusive measure Iik. The order of introduction Hik is the case where one measure i cannot be introduced unless the other measure i is introduced (mutual master-slave relationship), and the exclusive measure Iik is the case where measure Iik cannot be introduced if measure i is introduced (mutual Exclusive relationship). These are read on a screen as shown in FIG. The overall plan setting / display unit 1101 displays an overall plan period setting / display unit 1103 and a budget personnel setting / display unit 1104 for each period. The overall plan period setting / display unit 1103 reads the overall plan period A. In the budget personnel setting / display unit 1104 for each period, when j is the year, the total budget Bj (j = 1,2, ..., A) and the total personnel Cj (j = 1,2, ..., A) ). Each measure plan setting / display unit 1102 displays a measure constraint condition setting / display unit 1105. In the measure constraint condition setting / display unit 1105, the measure name Di, the measure introduction period Ei, the measure budget Fi, the measure personnel Gi, the introduction order of measure i (i = 1,2, ..., n) (n: number of measures) Hik (k = 1,2, ..., mi) (mi: number of restrictions on the order of introduction of measure i), exclusive measure Iik (k = 1,2, ..., li) (li: exclusion of measure i The number of strategic measures). The introduction order Hik and the exclusive measure Iik store the corresponding measure number. Each value read from the input device 102 is written by the computer 103 into the constraint database 105 shown in FIG. In FIG. 9, A = 4, B1 = 200, B2 = 200, B3 = 150, B4 = 150, C1 = 10, C2 = 10, C3 = 10, C4 = 8, D1 = 'P / L for each quarter, B / S creation function ', E1 = 2, F1 = 140, G1 = 5, H11 = 2, I11 = 3, etc. are stored.
Next, in step 207, the achievement rank of each measure is calculated using the management achievement level of the measure obtained in step 204 and the constraint condition read in step 206. Here, the realization order is calculated according to the flowchart shown in FIG. First, at step 1201, it is determined according to the flowchart of FIG. If there is a contradiction in the order constraint, that is, if a loop occurs due to the order constraint condition, the road map cannot be calculated. In step 1301, the measure number storage list X is emptied, and the branching number Y, which is a storage variable when a single measure has a plurality of introduction order constraints, is set to zero. In step 1302, one measure is selected and the measure number is added to the storage list X. In step 1303, the process branches depending on the number of introduction order constraints of the measure selected in step 1302. In step 1304, when the number of introduction order constraints is 1 in step 1303, the measure number of the introduction order restriction is added to the list X and stored. In step 1305, when the number of introduction order constraints is 2 or more in step 1303, the number of one measure in the introduction order constraints is added to the list X and stored. Further, the value of the branching number Y is increased by 1. Further, the branch location number is stored in the storage variable Z. In step 1306, it is determined whether there is a loop by checking whether there are two identical measure numbers in the list X. If there are two same measure numbers, the process is terminated assuming that a loop exists. In step 1307, if the introduction order constraint number is 0 in step 1303, the process branches according to the number of branching numbers Y. In step 1308, if the branch number Y is 1 or more in step 1307, the elements of the storage list X are deleted up to the branched portion Z, and the value of the branch number Y is decreased by one. In step 1309, if the branching number Y is 0 in step 1307, the elements of the storage list X are emptied. Processing branches at step 1310 depending on whether all measures have been checked at step 1302. If all measures are checked, the processing is terminated as if there is no loop.

  It is possible to check whether there is a loop by the above processing. When there is a loop, the order of implementation of the measure cannot be calculated because there is a contradiction in order constraints, and the process ends in step 1201.

Next, in step 1202, the priority order of the measure is determined based on the management achievement degree Ii of the measure i and the order constraint. Here, the priority order of the measures is determined according to the flowchart shown in FIG. First, in step 1401, the measures are rearranged in descending order of the management achievement degree Ii, and the priority order is temporarily determined. A 1 × n matrix N arranged in descending order of management achievement degree Ii is created. Where n is the number of measures. The measure number with the highest management achievement Ii is the value in the first column of the matrix N. In step 1402, 0 is substituted for variable i. In step 1403, i + 1 is substituted for i. In step 1404, it is determined whether or not to end if there is no constraint violation in the order of measures. It is determined whether i> n has been checked up to the nth column of the matrix N. If i> n, it is determined that the priority order of the measures satisfying the order constraint has been determined. In step 1405, it is checked whether or not the order constraint of the measure Ni in the i-th column of the matrix N is violated. If there is no measure H _Nik (k = 1, 2,..., M _Ni ) that is a restriction on the order of introduction of measure Ni after measure Ni, the process proceeds to step 1403. In step 1406, if there is a measure H _Nik (k = 1,2, ..., m _Ni ) that is the order of introduction of measure Ni after measure Ni in step 1405, the order constraint of Ni is violated. , Move measures to be taken before measure Ni before measure Ni. Thereafter, the process proceeds to step 1402. The priority order of measures is determined by the above processing.

Next, in step 1203, the measure with the highest measure priority is selected. Element N _{1 in} the first column of matrix N is the measure with the highest measure priority. For the selected measure N ₁ , the earliest execution time that satisfies the constraints on the budget and personnel is searched in step 1204. That is, Bk> F _N1 and Ck> G _N1 (k = j, j + 1, ..., j + E ₁ ) are satisfied for the total budget Bk, the total personnel Ck, the policy budget F _N1 , and the policy personnel G _N1 The smallest j among k to be the execution start time of the measure N ₁ . If there is no execution time that satisfies the conditions, the selected measure N ₁ is not executed, N ₁ is excluded from the matrix N, and the process proceeds to step 1207. In step 1205, when there is an execution time that satisfies the condition in step 1204, the execution start time S (N ₁ ) of the measure N ₁ is set to the earliest time j that satisfies the constraint condition. The measures because of the need to reduce the total budget and the total personnel by introduction of N _1, Bl-F in Bl _N1, Cl to _{Cl-G N1 (l = j} , j + 1, ..., j + E 1) Is assigned. Also, N ₁ is excluded from the matrix N. Next, in step 1206, the exclusive measures of the decided measure are excluded from the matrix N in order to avoid duplication of the measures that have an exclusive relationship with the decided measure. Next, in step 1207, the presence or absence of an unsearched measure is confirmed. If there is an element of the matrix N, the process returns to step 1203. That is, the processing from step 1203 to step 1206 is performed for all measures, and the realization time of each measure is determined.

  In step 208, information on the road map displayed in step 209 is calculated. Necessary budget SAj (j = 1,2, ..., A) (A: overall plan period) for each period is a measure that satisfies S (i) ≤j≤S (i) + Ei among all measures i This is the total of i's budget Fi. That is, SAj = ΣFi (FiεS (i) ≦ j ≦ S (i) + Ei). In addition, the required number of employees SBj (j = 1,2, ..., A) (A: overall planning period) for each period is S (i) ≦ j ≦ S (i) + Ei among all measures i. This is the total of measure personnel Gi of measure i to be satisfied. That is, SBj = ΣGi (GiεS (i) ≦ j ≦ S (i) + Ei) is calculated. In addition, the total value SCj (j = 1,2, ..., A) (A: overall plan period) of management achievement levels of measures achieved in each period is j = S (i) of all measures i This is the total level of management achievement Ii for measure i that meets + Ei. That is, SCj = ΣIi (Iiεj = S (i) + Ei). In addition, the cumulative value SDj (j = 1,2, ..., A) (A: overall plan period) of the management achievement level up to each period is the total value SCj of the management achievement levels of the measures achieved in each period. And calculated by SDj = ΣSCk (k = 1, 2,..., J).

  Next, in step 209, the measure implementation order is displayed. The realization order of measures is displayed on a screen as shown in FIG. The numerical value display section 1501 displays the necessary budget SAj for each period, the required personnel SBj, the cumulative value SDj of the degree of business achievement up to each period, and the like. In the road map display unit 1502, the time when each measure is realized is represented by, for example, the size and position of a square. As shown in FIG. 10, the vertical side of the square represents the size of the required budget Fi of the measure or the size of the required personnel Gi of the measure, the horizontal side of the square represents the length Ei of the required period, and the left side of the square The execution start time S (i) is represented, and the end time S (i) + Ei is represented on the right side.

  In this way, according to the first embodiment, when determining the investment order, the management issues to be achieved and the measures for realizing them are displayed, and each measure is based on the weight indicating the relationship between the lower issues and the measures for the upper issue. It is possible to calculate and display the degree of management achievement and take into account the importance of measures for management issues. In addition, it is possible to calculate a realization order without contradiction by taking into account time constraints, resource constraints, and inter-measure constraints.

  Subsequently, as a second embodiment, a method for ranking the implementation of policies in consideration of future uncertainties in constraint conditions such as policy development delays and budget overruns will be described.

  The processing of the second embodiment will be described based on the flowchart of FIG.

  In Step 1601, in order to take into account the uncertainty in the measure introduction period Ei, measure budget Fi, and measure personnel Gi of measure i, the risk range REi, measure budget risk range RFi, and measure personnel risk range RGi of the measure introduction period Read. The risk width is the magnitude of an error from each set value when a policy development delay or budget overrun occurs.

  In step 1602, Ei + r · REi is substituted for Ei, Fi + r · RFi is substituted for Fi, Gi + r · RGi is substituted for Gi, respectively, using a constant r determined in advance or read from the user. The measure implementation rank is calculated according to the flowchart of FIG. Depending on the size of the constant r, how much margin is given to the plan changes. This makes it possible to consider the risk width as a margin.

  As described above, according to the second embodiment, it is possible to prioritize measures when there are future uncertainties in constraint conditions such as policy development delays or budget overruns. This makes it possible to reduce the possibility that the plan needs to be changed even when a measure delay occurs.

It is a figure which shows the system form of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of measure realization order calculation. It is a figure which shows the setting screens, such as a management subject and a measure. It is a figure which shows a management subject arrangement table database. It is a figure which shows the setting screen of the path | route which shows correspondence, such as a management subject and a measure. It is a figure which shows the setting screen of the weight which shows the contribution degree of the low-order subject and measure with respect to a high-order issue. It is a figure which shows the display screen of management achievement. It is a figure which shows the outline | summary of the calculation method of management achievement. It is a figure which shows a constraint condition database. It is a figure which shows the outline | summary of a constraint condition. It is a figure which shows the setting screen of a constraint condition. It is a flowchart which shows the logic of measure realization order calculation. It is a flowchart which shows the logic of an introductory measure restrictions contradiction investigation. It is a flowchart which shows the logic of the priority determination of the policy based on management achievement and introduction order restrictions. It is a figure which shows the display screen of measure realization order. It is a flowchart which shows the logic of measure realization order calculation in consideration of uncertainty.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 101 Display apparatus 102 Input apparatus 103 Computation apparatus 104 Management problem rearrangement table database 105 Restriction condition database 301 Management problem 302 Approach problem 303 Measure 304 Add management problem button 305 Approach problem addition button 306 Measure addition button 401 Management problem table 402 Action problem table 403 Measure table 501 Path 601 indicating presence / absence of relationship Management contribution weight 602 Management task achievement 603 Approach task achievement 701 Management achievement 1101 Overall plan setting / display unit 1102 Each plan setting / display unit 1103 Overall plan period setting / display unit 1104 Budget Personnel Setting / Display Unit 1105 Policy Constraint Setting / Display Unit 1501 Numerical Display Unit 1502 Road Map Display Unit

Claims (4)

A measure decision support method by a computer system having an input device, a processing device, and a display device,
The input device reads a plurality of management issues, a plurality of measures, and a weight indicating the degree of contribution to management for each of the plurality of management issues or the degree of contribution to the management issue for each of the plurality of measures,
The processing device uses the weight to calculate the importance of management of the measure for each of the plurality of measures,
The input device, when there is a requirement regarding the execution order between a plurality of measures, reads the order constraint indicating the requirement,
The processing device determines the priority of each of the plurality of measures in the order of importance in a range that satisfies the order constraint,
The input device reads an overall budget and a measure budget required for each of the plurality of measures,
The processing device determines the execution timing of the measure in order from the measure with the highest priority so that the budget is within the range of the overall budget,
The display device displays a plurality of measures side by side in the order of the execution time ,
When displaying the plurality of measures in the order of the execution time, the display device uses a quadrangle having a horizontal axis representing the length of the measure execution period and a vertical axis representing the measure budget size. A method characterized by displaying . The method of claim 1, comprising:
The input device further reads an exclusive measure constraint defining an exclusive relationship between a plurality of measures,
The processing apparatus refers to the exclusive measure constraint, and determines the execution time of a measure so that a plurality of two or more measures having an exclusive relationship are not executed. A computer system having an input device, a processing device, and a display device,
The input device reads a plurality of management issues, a plurality of measures, and a weight indicating the degree of contribution to management for each of the plurality of management issues or the degree of contribution to the management issue for each of the plurality of measures,
The processing device uses the weight to calculate the importance of management of the measure for each of the plurality of measures,
When there is a requirement regarding the execution order between a plurality of measures, the input device reads an order constraint indicating the requirement,
The processing device determines the priority of each of the plurality of measures in the order of importance in a range that satisfies the order constraint,
The input device reads an overall budget and a measure budget required for each of the plurality of measures,
The processing device determines the execution timing of the measure in order from the measure with the highest priority so that the budget is within the range of the overall budget,
The display device displays a plurality of measures side by side in the order of the execution time ,
When displaying the plurality of measures in the order of the execution time, the display device uses a quadrangle having a horizontal axis representing the length of the measure execution period and a vertical axis representing the measure budget size. A computer system characterized by displaying . A computer system according to claim 3,
The input device further reads an exclusive measure constraint defining an exclusive relationship between a plurality of measures,
The computer system is characterized in that, with reference to the exclusive measure constraint, the execution time of the measure is determined so that two or more measures that are in an exclusive relationship are not executed.

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