JP2022185352A - Power generation amount prediction device and power generation amount prediction method - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a power generation amount prediction device capable of predicting a power generation amount in a hydraulic power plant facility of free flowing type with high accuracy, and a power generation amount prediction method.SOLUTION: A power generation amount prediction device predicts a power generation amount in a free flowing type hydraulic power generation facility which generates power by water in a water channel taken in from a water intake port, and includes: an increased amount of water calculation part which obtains an increased amount of water at a first point of time at the water intake port by using an amount of rainfall in a basin of a water channel up to a second point of time traced from the first point of time when a power generation amount is predicted just for a predetermined time; a water intake amount calculation part which obtains a water intake amount to be an amount of water taken in from the water intake port at the first point of time by using the increased amount of water; and a power generation amount calculation part which obtains a power generation amount at the first point of time from the water intake amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

The present invention relates to a power generation amount prediction device and a power generation amount prediction method.

In recent years, a system called CEMS (Community Energy Management System) has been introduced in order to realize "visualization" of energy in a community. This CEMS is a system that manages the amount of power supply from power generation facilities (for example, solar power plants and hydroelectric power plants) scattered in the area and the amount of power demand in the area. In such a CEMS, it is extremely important to accurately predict the amount of power supply and the amount of power demand for the entire region.

The following Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2 disclose a method of predicting the amount of power generation (output) in a run-of-river (run-of-river) hydroelectric power plant. Specifically, in the methods disclosed in Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2 below, a Kalman filter tank model is used, making it possible to predict electric energy stably throughout the four seasons. A run-of-river type hydroelectric power plant is a power plant that does not have a water storage function and generates power by drawing river water directly into the power plant.

Kenta Ofuji, 3 others, "Prediction of Free-flow Hydraulic Output by Kalman Filter Tank Model", IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol.128, No 9, 2008, pp.1091-1098 Kenta Ofuji, "Prediction of next-day run-of-river hydroelectric power output according to rainfall", Operations Research, October 2013, Vol.58, No.10, pp.581-586

By the way, in the above-mentioned run-of-river type hydroelectric power plant, river water is directly drawn into the power plant, so it is directly affected by the condition of the river (rich water or drought). For example, when there is a lot of water in the river due to rainfall or the like (in the case of abundant water), the amount of power generation increases, and when there is little water in the river due to drought or the like (in the case of drought), the amount of power generation decreases. As described above, since the amount of power generated in a run-of-river hydroelectric power station is greatly affected by weather conditions, there is a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict the amount of power generated.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present invention to provide a power generation amount prediction device and a power generation amount prediction method capable of predicting with high accuracy the amount of power generation in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility. do.

In order to solve the above problems, a power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention provides power generation in a self-flow hydroelectric power plant facility (PL) that generates power using water in a waterway (RV) taken in from a water intake (WI). A power generation amount prediction device (1) for predicting the amount of power generation from the first time point (t30) at which the power generation amount is predicted to a second time point (t10) that is a predetermined period (T) before the waterway A water increase calculation unit (21) that calculates the amount of water increase (Q1) at the water intake at the first time point using the rainfall amount (Xn) in the basin, and the water intake at the first time point using the water increase amount a water intake amount calculation unit (22) for calculating a water intake amount (Q), which is the amount of water taken in through the mouth, and a power generation amount calculation unit (23) for obtaining a power generation amount (P) at the first point in time from the water intake amount; , provided.

Further, in the power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention, the water increase amount calculation unit calculates the rainfall amount at each time point from the first time point to the second time point for the length from each time point to the first time point. The amount of water increase is obtained by accumulating the values that are exponentially attenuated according to the water level.

Further, in the power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention, the water intake is provided at a position that can take in water dammed by a weir (DM) provided in the water channel, and the water intake amount calculation Part is the amount of water (Q4) obtained by subtracting the amount of water overflowing from the weir from the amount of water obtained by adding the amount of base water (Q2), which is the amount of water in the channel when there is no rainfall, and the amount of increased water, and the amount of water intake. Ask as

Further, in the power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention, the base water amount is represented by a function in which the water amount exponentially decreases with time, and the water intake amount calculation unit calculates that the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant equipment is The base water amount is set to the initial value each time a predetermined maximum power generation amount is reached.

Further, in the power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention, when the first time point arrives and the actual power generation amount (Pr) is obtained, the predicted power generation amount (P) and the actually obtained power generation amount (P) A power generation amount correction unit (24) that obtains an error (Δ) from the power generation amount and corrects the power amount predicted at the first time point newly set to predict the power generation amount using the error. .

Further, the power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention includes an acquisition unit (15) that acquires the amount of rainfall in the basin of the waterway and the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant equipment.

Further, the power generation amount prediction device according to one aspect of the present invention includes an output unit (12) that outputs the power generation amount predicted at the first time point.

A power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction method for predicting the power generation amount in a self-flow type hydroelectric power plant facility (PL) that generates power using water in a waterway (RV) taken in from a water intake (WI). and using the rainfall amount (Xn) in the basin of the waterway from the first point in time (t30) at which the amount of power generation is predicted to the second point in time (t10) which is a predetermined period (T) before, a water increase amount calculation step (S11) for obtaining the water increase amount (Q1) at the water intake at the first time point; It has a water intake amount calculation step (S12) for obtaining (Q), and a power generation amount calculation step (S13) for obtaining the power generation amount (P) at the first point in time from the water intake amount.

Further, in the power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention, the water increase amount calculating step calculates the amount of rainfall at each point in time from the first point in time to the second point in time. It is a step of obtaining the amount of water increase by accumulating the values that are exponentially attenuated according to the water level.

Further, in the power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention, the water intake is provided at a position where water dammed by a weir (DM) provided in the waterway can be taken in, and the water intake amount calculation In the step, the amount of water (Q4) obtained by subtracting the amount of water overflowing from the weir from the amount of water obtained by adding the amount of base water (Q2), which is the amount of water in the channel when there is no rainfall, and the amount of increased water, is calculated as the amount of intake water. is the step required as

Further, in the power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention, the base water amount is represented by a function in which the water amount exponentially decreases with time, and the water intake amount calculation step includes: It is a step of setting the base water amount to an initial value each time a predetermined maximum power generation amount is reached.

Further, in the power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention, when the first time point arrives and the actual power generation amount (Pr) is obtained, the predicted power generation amount (P) and the actually obtained power generation amount (P) A power generation amount correction step (S14) of obtaining an error (Δ) from the power generation amount and correcting the power amount predicted at the first time newly set to predict the power generation amount using the error .

Further, the power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention includes an obtaining step of obtaining the amount of rainfall in the basin of the waterway and the amount of power generation in the hydroelectric power plant equipment.

Further, the power generation amount prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention includes an output step (S15) of outputting the power generation amount predicted at the first time point.

ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, there exists an effect that it is possible to predict the electric power generation amount in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant installation with high precision.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS It is a figure which shows the outline|summary of a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant installation. 1 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of a power generation amount prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a flow chart showing an example of a power generation amount prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining processing performed by a water increase amount calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a water increase amount calculated by a water increase amount calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the predicted value obtained in one Embodiment of this invention.

Hereinafter, a power generation amount prediction device and a power generation amount prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Below, the outline of the embodiments of the present invention will be described first, and then the details of each embodiment of the present invention will be described.

〔Overview〕
Embodiments of the present invention make it possible to predict with high accuracy the amount of power generated in a run-of-river hydroelectric power station facility. Here, the run-of-river type hydroelectric power generation (sometimes called run-of-river type) means a method of generating power by directly drawing in the flow of irrigation channels such as rivers, agricultural irrigation, industrial water supply, and water supply and sewerage. Thus, run-of-river hydropower includes micro-hydropower, also called micro-hydropower or small-scale hydropower. Embodiments of the present invention can be used, for example, even when there is a lot of water in waterways (rivers and irrigation canals) due to rainfall etc. It also makes it possible to predict the amount of power generation with high accuracy.

Currently, online weather forecasters can predict hourly rainfall as far as 72 hours into the future. In addition to the past rainfall amount (rainfall record) and past power generation amount (power generation record), if rain forecast information is added, it is considered that it is possible to predict the amount of power generation up to the next day with high accuracy relatively easily. .

In the embodiment of the present invention, first, the amount of rainfall in the basin of the waterway from the first point in time at which the amount of power generation is predicted to the second point in time preceding a predetermined period is used to determine the increase in the first point in time at the water intake. Find the amount of water. Next, the amount of water intake, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake at the first point in time, is obtained using the amount of water increase. Then, the power generation amount at the first point in time is obtained from the water intake amount. This makes it possible to predict with high accuracy the amount of power generated by a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant.

〔detail〕
〈Outline of hydroelectric power plant〉
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an outline of a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility. As shown in FIG. 1, the run-of-river hydroelectric power plant PL includes a water tank A1, a penstock P1, and a generator A2. The water tank A1 temporarily stores water taken in from a water intake WI provided at a position capable of taking in water dammed up by a weir DM provided in a river RV (waterway). The penstock P1 guides the water temporarily stored in the water tank A1 to the generator A2. The generator A2 generates electricity from water supplied from the water tank A1 through the penstock P1. The water taken in from the water intake WI is led to the water tank A1 through the water conduit P0, and the water temporarily stored in the water tank A1 is led to the generator A2 through the penstock P1, and flows through the generator A2. is discharged into the spillway.

As shown in FIG. 1, the effective head between the water tank A1 and the generator A2 is H [m], and the amount of water flowing from the water tank A1 to the generator A2 via the penstock P1 is Q [m ³ /s]. Suppose there is The effective head H is obtained by subtracting the head loss (for example, the head loss of the penstock P1 and the head loss of the water outlet) from the actual height difference between the water tank A1 and the generator A2.

In FIG. 1, in the basin of the river RV, the basin range affected by the water volume of the river RV due to rainfall is conceptually illustrated as a rainfall area R1. Even if there is rainfall in the basin of the river RV, it may or may not affect the water volume of the river RV. can be simplified. For example, it is possible to consider that the water volume of the river RV is affected (increased) by the amount of rainfall in the rainfall area R1.

In the example shown in FIG. 1, the water intake WI is provided at a certain height from the bottom of the weir DM. The water W1 below the lower end of the water intake WI is not taken in from the water intake WI and does not contribute to power generation. Since the water W2 from the lower end of the water intake WI to the top of the weir DM may be taken in from the water intake WI and contribute to power generation, the amount of this water W2 is referred to as the "power generation effective water amount". can be done. The water W3 exceeding the top of the weir DM is not taken in from the water intake WI and does not contribute to power generation.

<Power generation amount prediction device>
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of a power generation amount prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 2, the power generation amount prediction device 1 of this embodiment includes an operation unit 11, a display unit 12 (output unit), a calculation unit 13, a storage unit 14, and a communication unit 15 (acquisition unit). Such a power generation amount prediction device 1 communicates with the server devices 30 and 40 via the network N, and calculates the rainfall amount in the basin of the river RV and the power generation amount of the hydroelectric power plant PL (generator A2). It acquires and predicts the power generation amount of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2) in the future.

The power generation amount prediction device 1 is realized by a computer such as a personal computer or a workstation, for example. The installation location of the power generation amount prediction device 1 may be any location. For example, it may be provided inside the hydroelectric power plant facility PL or may be provided outside the hydroelectric power plant facility PL. Note that the power generation amount prediction device 1 may be realized by cloud computing via the network N. Here, the server devices 30 and 40 and the network N will be briefly described before describing the power generation amount prediction device 1 in detail.

The server device 30 provides predicted rainfall (for example, hourly rainfall for about 72 hours into the future (rainfall forecast)) and past rainfall (actual rainfall) via the network N. do. The amount of rainfall provided by the server device 30 is the amount of rainfall at a predetermined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The server device 30 is operated by, for example, a business operator licensed for forecasting business (a business operator who receives permission from the Director-General of the Japan Meteorological Agency and conducts business of forecasting weather, terrestrial phenomena, tsunamis, storm surges, waves, or floods). Note that the server device 30 may be realized by cloud computing.

The server device 40 sequentially provides the latest power generation amount (actual power generation record) of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2) via the network N. FIG. This server device 40 is operated, for example, by a company that operates a free-flow hydroelectric power plant facility PL. Note that the server device 40 may be realized by cloud computing, like the server device 30 .

Network N is, for example, the Internet. The network N may be a network capable of wired communication, a network capable of wireless communication, or a network capable of both wired communication and wireless communication. The network N may be a Wi-Fi (registered trademark) network or a mobile communication network such as a 3G system, a 4G system, or an LTE (registered trademark) system.

The operation unit 11 includes, for example, an input device such as a keyboard and a pointing device, and outputs instructions (instructions to the power generation amount prediction apparatus 1) according to the operations of the user using the power generation amount prediction apparatus 1 to the calculation unit 13. do. The display unit 12 includes a display device such as a liquid crystal display device, for example, and displays various information output from the calculation unit 13 . Note that the operation unit 11 and the display unit 12 may be physically separated, and may be physically integrated like a touch panel type liquid crystal display device having both a display function and an operation function. It can be.

The calculation unit 13 controls the operation of the power generation amount prediction device 1 in an integrated manner. For example, various calculations are performed according to instructions output from the operation unit 11 and the calculation results are displayed on the display unit 12 . The calculation unit 13 also writes various data to the storage unit 14 and reads various data from the storage unit 14 . In addition, the calculation unit 13 controls the communication unit 15 to realize communication with the server devices 30 and 40 via the network N. FIG.

The calculation unit 13 includes a water increase amount calculation unit 21 , a water intake amount calculation unit 22 , a power generation amount calculation unit 23 , and a power generation amount correction unit 24 . The river RV calculation unit 21 calculates the river RV from the prediction time point (first time point) at which the amount of power generation is predicted to the past time point (second time point) that is a predetermined period T (for example, 1440 hours = 60 days). Using the rainfall amount in the basin of , the amount of water rise at the water intake WI at the time of prediction is obtained. Specifically, the water increase amount calculator 21 obtains the water increase amount Q1 at the water intake WI at the prediction time using the following equation (1).

Here, n in the above formula (1) is an integer indicating an arbitrary time point between the predicted time point (n=0) and the past time point (n=-T). Xn in the above formula (1) is the rainfall per hour [mm/h] at time point n. The amount of rainfall Xn is the amount of rainfall in the past if the time point n is past the present time, and is the predicted amount of rainfall (rainfall forecast) if the time point n is the time point in the future of the present time. As the rainfall amount Xn, the rainfall amount at a predetermined Meteorological Agency observation point (for example, the Meteorological Agency observation point closest to the water intake WI) can be used. K1 in the above equation (1) is the flow coefficient, and τ1 is the reduction coefficient. The discharge coefficient K1 and the reduction coefficient τ1 are coefficients determined by the characteristics of the river RV (for example, inclination, presence or absence of meandering, etc.) and the position of the water intake WI, and have different values for each position of the river RV and water intake WI. . These flow rate coefficient K1 and reduction coefficient τ1 are obtained in advance by conducting experiments.

From the above equation (1), it can be seen that the amount of water increase Q1 of the river RV is based on the equation (Xn*exp(n*τ1)) in the parentheses on the right side. This formula exponentially attenuates the amount of rainfall Xn at time n according to the length (n) from time n to prediction time (n=0). That is, the water increase amount calculation unit 21 calculates the amount of rainfall at each time point (n) from the prediction time point (n=0) to the past time point (n=−T), depending on the length (n) up to the prediction time point. to find the exponentially decayed value. Then, the amount of water increase Q1 is obtained by multiplying the integrated value obtained by integrating these values by the flow rate coefficient K1.

The water intake amount calculation unit 22 uses the water increase amount Q1 obtained by the water increase amount calculation unit 21 to obtain the water intake amount, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake WI at the time of prediction. Specifically, the water intake amount calculator 22 obtains the water intake amount Q of the water intake WI using the following equation (2).

Here, Q2 in the above equation (2) is the base water volume, which is the water volume of the river RV when there is no rainfall. This basal water content Q2 is represented by a function in which the water content exponentially decreases with time. Specifically, it is represented by the following equation (3). Note that K2 in the following equation (3) is a flow rate coefficient, and τ2 is a reduction coefficient. Like the discharge coefficient K1 and the reduction coefficient τ1, the discharge coefficient K2 and the reduction coefficient τ2 are coefficients determined by the characteristics of the river RV and the position of the water intake WI, and have different values for each position of the river RV and the water intake WI. Become. These flow rate coefficient K2 and reduction coefficient τ2 are obtained in advance by conducting experiments.

The base water amount Q2 is set (reset) to an initial value by the water intake amount calculator 22 each time the amount of power generated in the hydroelectric power plant PL reaches a predetermined maximum amount of power generated. Here, the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant facility PL becomes maximum when the water level of the water dammed up by the weir DM reaches the same height as the weir DM. Therefore, when the power generation amount obtained from the server device 40 reaches the predetermined maximum power generation amount, the water intake amount calculation unit 22 determines that the water level dammed by the weir DM is the same height as the weir DM. , the basal water content Q2 is initialized. m in the above formula (3) is an integer indicating the elapsed time from the initialization of the basal water content Q2.

Q4 in the above equation (2) is the amount of water overflowing from the weir DM (overflow water amount) when the water level of the water dammed up by the weir DM exceeds the weir DM. Here, the amount of water blocked by the weir DM when the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant facility PL reaches the maximum power generation amount is defined as a weir full water amount Q3. The weir full water amount Q3 can also be said to be the amount of water blocked by the weir DM when the water level of the water blocked by the weir DM reaches the same height as the weir DM. Then, the overflow water amount Q4 is represented by the following equation (4).

That is, the overflow water amount Q4 is obtained by adding the water increase amount Q1 and the base water amount Q2 when the water amount obtained by adding the water increase amount Q1 and the base water amount Q2 is larger than the above-mentioned weir full water amount Q3. A value is obtained by subtracting the above-mentioned weir full water amount Q3 from the obtained value. On the other hand, when the water amount obtained by adding the water increase amount Q1 and the base water amount Q2 is equal to or less than the above-mentioned weir full water amount Q3, the value becomes zero.

As described above, the water intake amount calculator 22 obtains the water amount Q by subtracting the overflow water amount Q4 from the water amount obtained by adding the water increase amount Q1 and the base water amount Q2. When the amount of water obtained by adding the increased water amount Q1 and the base water amount Q2 is equal to or less than the above-described weir full water amount Q3, the overflow water amount Q4 becomes zero. and the basal water content Q2 are added to obtain the water content Q.

The power generation amount calculation unit 23 obtains the power generation amount of the power plant equipment PL at the time of prediction from the water intake amount Q obtained by the water intake amount calculation unit 22 . For example, the power generation amount calculator 23 obtains the power generation amount P [kW] of the power plant equipment PL at the time of prediction using the following equation (5). Here, H in the following equation (5) is the effective head [m], and Q is the water volume [m ³ /s] (see FIG. 1). Also, η in the following equation (5) is the efficiency of the generator A2 (including the efficiency of the water turbine).

The power generation amount correction unit 24 corrects the power generation amount P obtained by the power generation amount calculation unit 23 . Specifically, when the prediction time comes and the actual power generation amount Pr is obtained from the server device 40, the power generation amount correction unit 24 determines the difference between the predicted power generation amount P and the actually obtained power generation amount Pr. Find the error Δ. Then, the power generation amount correction unit 24 uses the error Δ to correct the power generation amount P predicted at the newly set prediction point in time to predict the power generation amount.

The storage unit 14 includes an auxiliary storage device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an SSD (Solid State Drive), and stores various information. Specifically, the storage unit 14 stores various parameters (eg, flow rate coefficient K1, reduction coefficient τ1, etc.) necessary for predicting the amount of power generated by the hydroelectric power plant PL, rainfall amount acquired from the server device 30, server device Stores the power generation amount and the like acquired from 40 . The storage unit 14 may store various programs for realizing the functions of the power generation amount prediction device 1, data temporarily used for processing of the calculation unit 13, and the like.

The communication unit 15 communicates with the server devices 30 and 40 connected to the network N under the control of the calculation unit 13 . The communication unit 15 communicates with the server device 30 to acquire the amount of rainfall at a predetermined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Note that the communication unit can acquire both past rainfall amounts and predicted rainfall amounts (rainfall forecast). Further, the communication unit 15 communicates with the server device 40 to acquire the latest power generation amount of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2).

The functions of each block of the power generation amount prediction device 1 (for example, the functions of the water increase amount calculation unit 21, the water intake amount calculation unit 22, the power generation amount calculation unit 23, and the power generation amount correction unit 24 provided in the calculation unit 13) are is realized in software by installing a program that realizes the function of (1) in the power generation amount prediction device 1 . In other words, these functions are realized through the cooperation of software and hardware resources. The program that implements the function of each block of the power generation amount prediction device 1 may be distributed while being recorded on a recording medium, or may be distributed via a network such as the Internet.

The functions of the power generation amount prediction device 1 are desirably implemented in software, but this does not preclude implementation using dedicated hardware. The functions of the power generation amount prediction device 1 may be realized using hardware such as FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), LSI (Large Scale Integration), and ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit).

<Method for predicting power generation amount>
FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing an example of a power generation amount prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention. Note that the processing of the flowchart shown in FIG. 3 is repeatedly started at regular time intervals (for example, at intervals of one hour). In this embodiment, each time the process shown in FIG. It is assumed that the process of acquiring the latest power generation amount of the hydroelectric power plant facility PL (generator A2) is performed by the power generation amount prediction device 1 (acquisition step).

When the processing of the flow chart shown in FIG. 3 is started, first, the water increase amount calculation unit 21 performs a process of calculating the water increase amount at the time of prediction using the rainfall amount in a predetermined period (step S11: water increase amount calculation step ). Specifically, using the rainfall amount in the basin of the river RV up to the past point in time preceding a predetermined period T (for example, 1440 hours = 60 days) from the time of prediction of the amount of power generation, the water intake WI Processing is performed to determine the amount of water increase at the time of prediction in .

FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining the processing performed by the water increase calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention. In the graph shown in FIG. 4, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents rainfall. In FIG. 4, time t20 indicates the current time, time t30 indicates the predicted time, and time t10 indicates the past time (the time preceding the predicted time t30 by a predetermined period T).

In FIG. 4, the straight line extending along the vertical axis indicates the amount of rainfall. In addition, the curve extending rightward (in the direction of passage of time) from the upper end of each straight line indicating the amount of rainfall indicates that the amount of water that contributes to the increase in the water level of the river RV due to rainfall flows downstream of the river RV. , is a curve showing how it decreases (attenuates) over time.

The amount of rainfall at times t10 to t14 indicates the amount of past rainfall at a predetermined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the amount of rainfall at times t21 and t30 is the predicted rainfall at the predetermined observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency. quantity. These rainfall amounts are acquired by the power generation amount prediction device 1 communicating with the server device 30 via the network N. FIG.

The amount of water increase Q1 at the water intake WI at the time of prediction is obtained by the calculation shown in the above-described equation (1) being performed by the amount of water increase calculator 21 . Specifically, at each point in time shown in FIG. is multiplied by the flow rate coefficient K1 to obtain the water increase amount Q1.

For example, for the amount of precipitation at time t10 in the past, processing is performed to obtain a value obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of precipitation at time t10 in the past according to the length (period T) from time t10 in the past to prediction time t30. . Further, for the amount of precipitation at time t11, processing is performed to obtain a value obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of precipitation at time t11 according to the length from time t11 to predicted time t30 (t30-t11). Similarly, for the amount of precipitation from time points t12 to t14 and t21, processing is performed to obtain values obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of precipitation at each time point according to the length from each time point to predicted time point t30. Then, the amount of water increase Q1 is obtained by multiplying the integrated value obtained by integrating these values by the flow rate coefficient K1.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the amount of water increase calculated by the amount of water increase calculation unit in one embodiment of the present invention. In the graph shown in FIG. 5, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents rainfall and water rise. The amount of water increase shown in FIG. 5 is obtained by repeatedly starting the process of the flowchart shown in FIG. 3 at regular intervals (for example, every hour).

Next, the water intake amount calculation unit 22 calculates the water intake amount Q of the water intake WI at the prediction time t30 using the water increase amount Q1 obtained in step S11 (step S12: water intake amount calculation step). The water intake amount Q of the water intake WI is obtained by performing the calculation shown in the above-described equation (2) in the water intake amount calculation unit 22 . Specifically, the amount of water obtained by subtracting the amount of overflow water Q4 from the amount of water obtained by adding the amount of increased water Q1 obtained in step S11 and the amount of base water Q2 represented by the above equation (3). A process for obtaining Q is performed.

When the power generation amount obtained from the server device 40 reaches a predetermined maximum power generation amount, it is assumed that the water level dammed up by the weir DM becomes the same height as the weir DM. A process of initializing the base water amount Q2 is performed by the water intake amount calculation unit 22 . Also, the overflow water amount Q4 is obtained by performing the calculation shown in the above-described equation (4) in the water intake amount calculation unit 22 .

Next, the power generation amount calculation unit 23 performs a process of obtaining the power generation amount P in the power plant PL from the water intake amount Q obtained in step S12 (step S13: power generation amount calculation step). The power generation amount P in the power plant facility PL is obtained by performing the calculation shown in the above-described equation (5) in the power generation amount calculation unit 23 . Specifically, the water intake amount Q (water amount Q) obtained in step S12 is multiplied by the gravitational acceleration (9.8), the effective head H, and the efficiency of the generator A2. A power generation amount P in the equipment PL is obtained.

Subsequently, a process of correcting the power generation amount obtained in step S13 is performed by the power generation amount correction unit 24 (step S14: correction step). Specifically, when a past prediction time point (for example, a time point one hour before the prediction time point t30) arrives and the actual power generation amount Pr is obtained from the server device 40, the predicted power generation amount P and the actual power generation amount Pr are obtained. A process is performed to obtain an error Δ from the power generation amount Pr obtained in the above. Then, a process of correcting the power generation amount P predicted at the prediction time t30 using the error Δ is performed.

After the above process is completed, the calculation unit 13 performs a process of displaying the power generation amount P in the power plant facility PL predicted at the prediction time t30 on the display unit 12 (step S15: output step). For example, when prediction is performed every hour up to 24 hours ahead, the processing of steps S11 to S14 is performed 24 hours ahead while changing the prediction time t30 from the start to the end of the flow chart shown in FIG. will be repeated several times.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of predicted values obtained in one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6(a) is a diagram showing the actual power generation amount and the predicted value 2 hours ago, and FIG. 6(b) is a diagram showing the actual power generation amount and the predicted value 24 hours ago. be. Referring to FIG. 6( a ), the predicted value and the measured value were almost the same, and the prediction error (RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error) was 1.05 [MW]. Referring to FIG. 6(b), there was some deviation between the predicted value and the measured value, and the prediction error (RMSE) was 3.21 [MW].

In the example shown in FIG. 6, the rated power generation amount of the power plant facility PL is 50 [MW]. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 6(a), the prediction error when predicting 2 hours ahead is about 2%, and as shown in FIG. 6(b), the prediction error when predicting 24 hours ahead is It was about 6.5%. From the above, it is considered that the power generation amount in the power plant equipment PL can be predicted with high accuracy.

As described above, in this embodiment, first, using the rainfall amount in the river basin up to the past time t10, which is a predetermined period T before the prediction time t30 at which the power generation amount is predicted, the prediction at the water intake WI A water increase amount Q1 at time t30 is obtained. Next, using the water increase amount Q1, the water intake amount Q, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake WI at the prediction time t30, is obtained. Then, from the water intake amount Q, the power generation amount P at the prediction time t30 is obtained. As a result, it is possible to predict with high accuracy the amount of power generated in the self-flow type hydroelectric power plant PL.

In this way, the power generation amount prediction device 1 of the present embodiment utilizes the predicted rainfall amount (rainfall forecast) provided hourly by the server device 30 and the past rainfall amount (actual rainfall), The amount of power generated in the run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility PL is predicted. Therefore, it is possible to predict the amount of power generated in the power plant facility PL in real time (on an hourly basis) with high accuracy. Therefore, by linking the power generation amount prediction device 1 of the present embodiment with CEMS, the amount of power generated by thermal power generation can be minimized, contributing to CO ₂ reduction.

Although the power generation amount prediction apparatus and power generation amount prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments and can be freely modified within the scope of the present invention. For example, in the above-described embodiment, the rainfall amount at the observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency closest to the water intake WI is used as the rainfall amount Xn. However, if there is a certain correlation between the amount of rainfall at the observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the amount of water rise in the river RV, the amount of rainfall at an arbitrary observation point of the Japan Meteorological Agency set near the basin of the river RV can be used as the amount of rainfall Xn. can be done.

Moreover, in the above-described embodiment, for the sake of simplicity, the example in which the water intake WI is provided at one location has been described, but a plurality of water intakes WI may be provided at different locations. Further, in the above-described embodiment, an example in which the power generation amount P at the predicted time t30 of the power plant equipment PL is displayed on the display unit 12 has been described. You can do it. For example, the data may be output to an external terminal device via the network N.

Further, in the above-described embodiment, an example of predicting the amount of power generated in a hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using the water of a river RV taken in from the water intake WI has been described. However, the present embodiment can also be applied, for example, when predicting the amount of power generated in hydroelectric power plant equipment that generates power using water in an irrigation channel.

1 Power generation amount prediction device 12 Display unit 15 Communication unit 21 Water increase amount calculation unit 22 Water intake amount calculation unit 23 Power generation amount calculation unit 24 Power generation amount correction unit WI Water intake DM Weir P Predicted power generation amount Pr Actual power generation amount PL Hydroelectric power generation Facility equipment Q Water intake Q1 Water increase Q2 Base water Q4 Overflow water RV River t10 Past time t30 Prediction time T Period Xn Rainfall Δ Error

Claims (14)

A power generation amount prediction device for predicting the power generation amount in a self-flow type hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using water in a water channel taken in from a water intake,
Calculating the amount of water increase at the water intake at the first time point using the rainfall amount in the basin of the waterway from the first time point at which the power generation amount is predicted to the second time point before a predetermined period. Department and
a water intake amount calculation unit that calculates a water intake amount, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake at the first time point, using the water increase amount;
a power generation amount calculation unit that calculates the power generation amount at the first point in time from the water intake amount;
A power generation amount prediction device. The amount of water increase calculation unit integrates values obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of precipitation at each time point from the first time point to the second time point according to the length from each time point to the first time point. 2. The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the amount of water increase is obtained by: The water intake is provided at a position capable of taking in water dammed by a weir provided in the water channel,
The water intake amount calculation unit obtains the amount of water obtained by subtracting the amount of water overflowing from the weir from the amount of water obtained by adding the amount of base water, which is the amount of water in the channel when there is no rainfall, and the amount of increased water, as the amount of water intake. 3. The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1 or 2. The basal water content is represented by a function in which the water content decreases exponentially with time,
The water intake amount calculation unit sets the base water amount to an initial value each time the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant equipment reaches a predetermined maximum power generation amount.
The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 3. When the first time point arrives and the actual power generation amount is obtained, the error between the predicted power generation amount and the actually obtained power generation amount is calculated, and the power generation amount is newly set to predict the power generation amount. The power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, further comprising a power generation amount correction unit that corrects the power amount predicted at the first time point using the error. The power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising an acquisition unit that acquires the rainfall amount in the basin of the waterway and the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant facility. The power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, further comprising an output unit that outputs the power generation amount predicted at the first time point. A power generation amount prediction method for predicting the power generation amount in a run-of-river hydroelectric power plant facility that generates power using water in a channel taken in from a water intake,
Calculating the amount of water increase at the water intake at the first time point using the rainfall amount in the basin of the waterway from the first time point at which the power generation amount is predicted to the second time point before a predetermined period. a step;
a water intake amount calculation step of obtaining a water intake amount, which is the amount of water taken in from the water intake at the first time point, using the water increase amount;
a power generation amount calculation step of obtaining the power generation amount at the first point in time from the water intake amount;
A power generation amount prediction method having In the step of calculating the amount of water increase, a value obtained by exponentially attenuating the amount of rainfall at each time point from the first time point to the second time point according to the length from each time point to the first time point is integrated. 9. The method of predicting the amount of power generation according to claim 8, wherein the step of obtaining the amount of water increase by: The water intake is provided at a position capable of taking in water dammed by a weir provided in the water channel,
In the water intake amount calculation step, the amount of water obtained by subtracting the amount of water overflowing from the weir from the amount of water obtained by adding the base water amount, which is the amount of water in the channel when there is no rainfall, and the amount of increased water, is obtained as the amount of water intake. 10. The power generation amount prediction method according to claim 8 or 9, which is a step. The basal water content is represented by a function in which the water content decreases exponentially with time,
The water intake amount calculation step is a step of setting the base water amount to an initial value each time the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant equipment reaches a predetermined maximum power generation amount.
The power generation amount prediction method according to claim 10. When the first time point arrives and the actual power generation amount is obtained, the error between the predicted power generation amount and the actually obtained power generation amount is calculated, and the power generation amount is newly set to predict the power generation amount. The power generation amount prediction method according to any one of claims 8 to 11, further comprising a power generation amount correction step of correcting the power amount predicted at the first point in time using the error. 13. The power generation amount prediction method according to any one of claims 8 to 12, further comprising an obtaining step of obtaining the rainfall amount in the basin of the waterway and the power generation amount in the hydroelectric power plant facility. The power generation amount prediction method according to any one of claims 8 to 13, further comprising an output step of outputting the power generation amount predicted at the first time point.

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