JP5778295B2 - Flow prediction device and flow prediction system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a flow rate prediction device and a flow rate prediction system that predict a flow rate of a river.

  Conventionally, hydroelectric power stations generate electricity by storing the flow rate of rivers in reservoirs and regulating ponds. And in a hydroelectric power station, the power level of a reservoir or an adjustment site is appropriately adjusted according to the flow rate of a river, so that efficient power generation without unnecessary discharge can be performed.

  Therefore, a support system capable of supporting a control station of a hydroelectric power station by predicting a flow rate of a river in advance has been introduced to a power station or the like. This support system notifies the control station and the like of the future river flow rate calculated from the forecasted rainfall in the weather forecast and the actual rainfall in the river basin as the predicted flow rate.

  By the way, the expected flow rate notified to the control station or the like generally includes an error. This error occurs due to non-uniform rainfall in the river basin and changes in the basin conditions (such as soil dryness, season, and basin changes). The error hinders the efficient power generation.

  There is known a flow rate predicting device capable of correcting (correcting) such an error and obtaining a predicted flow rate with higher accuracy (for example, Patent Document 1). In the flow rate prediction apparatus of Patent Document 1, an estimated flow rate with high accuracy is created by analyzing an error between the predicted rainfall amount and the actual actual rainfall amount. In the error analysis, a probability distribution function indicating a variation in forecast error is used. Then, a final predicted flow rate is calculated by generating a plurality of random numbers using the probability distribution function and calculating a plurality of corrected forecast rainfalls based on the random numbers.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2006-92058

  By the way, in the flow rate prediction apparatus of Patent Document 1, since it is necessary to generate a random number of times a plurality of times and calculate the corrected forecast rainfall each time, the same process is repeated a plurality of times to calculate one final corrected forecast rainfall. Need to repeat. Thereby, in the flow volume prediction apparatus of patent document 1, it is possible that processing load becomes high. In particular, recently, it is desired to connect a power station and a plurality of control stations online and update the calculated expected flow rate in real time. For this reason, it is preferable to calculate a predicted flow rate with high accuracy by a method with a small processing load.

  In view of such circumstances, an object of the present invention is to provide a flow rate predicting apparatus and a flow rate predicting system capable of calculating a predicted flow rate with high accuracy by a method with a small processing load.

  A flow prediction device according to the present invention is a flow prediction device that calculates predicted flow data of a river that is predicted in the future along with an actual flow that is an actual flow of a current river, and is used to calculate rainfall in a river basin. Create a runoff component database to be stored in time series, an expected flow rate database that stores predicted flow rate data calculated in advance from rainfall in the river basin as first predicted flow rate data, and a second predicted flow rate data that matches the actual flow rate. An expected flow rate calculation unit that replaces the first predicted flow rate data, and the expected flow rate calculation unit acquires the actual flow rate acquisition unit that acquires the current actual flow rate and the current expected flow rate indicated in the first expected flow rate data. Correction amount calculation that calculates a correction coefficient from the deviation from the current actual flow rate, and calculates a corrected rainfall amount by multiplying the correction coefficient and each of the rainfall amounts stored in time series in the runoff component database When using the correction rainfall, to create a second predicted flow rate data is expected flow rate the future from the present, and having a predicted flow rate data generating unit that replaces the first predicted flow rate data.

  In addition, the flow rate prediction system according to the present invention was created while acquiring rainfall from a plurality of rainfall observation stations provided in the basin, a control station for observing the actual flow rate that is the current flow rate, and the rainfall observation station. A flow rate predicting device that transmits the second predicted flow rate data to the control station is provided.

  According to this configuration, when there is a deviation of the current actual flow rate with respect to the predicted flow rate indicated by the first predicted flow rate data, the correction amount calculation unit uses the deviation as a correction coefficient in the outflow component database in time series. Correct stored rainfall. Thereby, the correction amount calculation unit acquires the corrected rainfall amount corrected according to the deviation. The predicted flow data creation unit can create the predicted flow data along the current actual flow by creating the second predicted flow data based on the corrected rainfall. Since it is only necessary to calculate the corrected rainfall using the correction coefficient calculated according to the deviation and create the second predicted flow rate data using the corrected rainfall, it is not necessary to repeat the calculation until the corrected rainfall is calculated. In addition, it is possible to provide a flow rate prediction device that can be reduced and that has high accuracy along the actual flow rate.

  In this configuration, the correction amount calculation unit corrects the rainfall amount based on the flow rate difference calculation unit that calculates the deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the current actual flow rate. A correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates a correction coefficient for calculating a corrected rainfall amount by multiplying each of the rainfall amounts stored in the runoff component database in time series by the correction coefficient. May be.

  According to this configuration, the correction coefficient calculation unit calculates the correction coefficient from the deviation obtained by the flow rate calculation unit. Since the corrected rainfall calculation unit calculates the corrected rainfall by multiplying each of the rainfall stored in time series by the correction coefficient, the corrected rainfall corresponding to the current actual flow rate can be obtained. Thereby, it is not necessary to repeat the calculation up to the corrected rainfall amount, the processing load can be reduced, and a flow rate prediction device with high accuracy along the actual flow rate can be provided.

  Further, in the above aspect, further comprising an outflow characteristic database storing outflow characteristic data indicating a change in the river flow corresponding to an arbitrary rainfall for every elapsed time, and the predicted flow data creation unit includes all the corrected rainfall data The second predicted flow rate data may be created by reading out the outflow characteristic data corresponding to each and adding the flow rates indicated in the outflow characteristic data for each time from the present to the future.

  According to such a configuration, the predicted flow rate data creation unit can create the second predicted flow rate data by reading outflow characteristic data corresponding to the corrected rainfall amount and simply summing up each time. Thereby, a process can be reduced also when producing 2nd prediction flow volume data.

  In the above aspect, the outflow component database further stores the base flow rate of the river, and the correction coefficient calculation unit calculates the difference between the actual flow rate and the base flow rate as the current predicted flow rate and the base indicated by the first predicted flow rate data. The correction coefficient may be calculated by dividing by the difference from the flow rate.

  According to such a configuration, since the correction coefficient is calculated simply by subtraction and division, the processing load related to the calculation of the correction coefficient can be reduced.

In the above aspect, the runoff component database stores, as rainfall, groundwater runoff component rainfall that flows into the groundwater and surface intermediate runoff component rain that flows between the surface of the river basin and the groundwater , and corrects rainfall. The amount calculation unit may calculate a corrected rainfall amount by multiplying each of the groundwater runoff component rainfall and the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall by a correction coefficient.

  According to such a configuration, the rainfall is subdivided into groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall. Thereby, the outflow amount according to the condition of a basin and the time of rainfall can be obtained. Then, since the correction amount calculation unit multiplies these subdivided rainfall amounts by the correction coefficient to calculate the corrected rainfall amount, it is possible to obtain a corrected rainfall amount with higher accuracy.

  Further, in the above aspect, a component separation database that stores parameters for separating rainfall into a basin as a component separation table, a rainfall acquisition unit that acquires rainfall in a basin every predetermined time, and a component separation database And an average rainfall calculation unit that calculates the average rainfall of the basin from the acquired rainfall, separates the average rainfall based on the component separation table, and stores it in the outflow component database. May be further provided.

  According to such a configuration, it is possible to separate the rainfall amount into each component using the parameter for separating the rainfall amount into the river basin into the components. Thereby, the amount of rainfall can be separated into each component using the situation specific to the river basin (such as the situation of the strata and the water discharge time). And by using the average rainfall, it is possible to correct the uneven rainfall in the basin. The runoff component database can store each component of rainfall amount taking into account the rainfall bias to the river basin and the situation specific to the river basin, and therefore can store information with higher accuracy.

  Further, in the above aspect, the predicted flow rate calculation unit calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate and the acquired actual flow rate in the created second predicted flow rate data, and verifies whether the deviation is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. When the deviation is greater than or equal to a predetermined value, the verification unit sends the generated second predicted flow rate data to the flow rate difference calculation unit, and the correction amount calculation unit calculates the corrected rainfall amount again. Then, the predicted flow data creation unit may create the second predicted flow data using the corrected rainfall calculated again.

  According to such a configuration, even when the predicted flow rate of the second predicted flow rate data has a predetermined difference or more than the actual flow rate, the second predicted flow rate data is again obtained using the generated second predicted flow rate data. Because it is created, the second predicted flow rate data with higher accuracy can be obtained.

  Further, in the above aspect, the expected flow rate calculation unit further includes a timing unit that outputs a trigger every predetermined time, the timing unit outputs a trigger to the actual flow rate acquisition unit, and the actual flow rate acquisition unit serves as the trigger. Based on this, the actual flow rate may be acquired.

  According to such a configuration, it is possible to determine whether or not to correct the first predicted flow rate data every predetermined time. Therefore, it is possible to obtain an expected flow rate with high accuracy consistent with the actual flow rate.

  As described above, according to the flow rate predicting apparatus and the flow rate predicting system according to the present invention, there is an excellent effect that it is possible to calculate a predicted flow rate with high accuracy by a method with less additional processing load.

The schematic which shows the relationship of the river basin which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention, a control station, and an electric power station is shown. The schematic diagram explaining each separated component of the rainfall which concerns on the same embodiment is shown. The schematic of the runoff characteristic corresponding to each of the rainfall by which the component separation which concerns on the embodiment, and the calculation method of the runoff amount to a river is shown. The schematic of the outflow amount to the river by the rainfall which continues according to the embodiment in time is shown. The data figure which is an example of the 1st estimated flow volume data which concern on the embodiment is shown. The block diagram of the flow volume prediction system which concerns on the embodiment is shown. The data figure which is an example of the table stored in the component separation database which concerns on the embodiment is shown. The data figure which is an example of the rainfall amount stored in the runoff component database which concerns on the embodiment is shown. The data figure which is an example of the 2nd predicted flow volume data and performance flow volume which concern on the embodiment is shown. The whole flowchart until preparation of the 2nd predicted flow volume data concerning the embodiment is shown. The flowchart which produces the 2nd estimated flow volume data which concern on the embodiment is shown.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of a flow rate prediction apparatus and a flow rate prediction system according to the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

  First, prior to explaining each configuration of the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system according to the present embodiment, the predicted flow rate of the river 6 predicted from the relationship between the basin 2, the control station 5, and the power station 1 and the rainfall amount. A method for calculating the value will be described.

  As shown in FIG. 1, a river basin 2 in which rainfall flows into the river 6 is set in the river 6. The rainfall that falls in the basin 2 flows into the river 6 and increases the flow rate of the river 6. The rain that has flowed into the river 6 reaches a reservoir or a regulating pond (which will be described in the regulating pond 3 in this embodiment) and is used for power generation in the dam 4. The control station 5 is provided as a place where the dam 4 is operated, and adjusts the power generation amount of the dam 4 and the water storage amount of the adjustment pond 3.

  In the basin 2, a plurality of rainfall stations 21, 21,. Each of the plurality of rainfall observation stations 21, 21,... Acquires the rainfall amount at each of the arranged points at predetermined time intervals. Each of the plurality of rainfall observation stations 21, 21... Transmits the acquired rainfall amount to the flow rate prediction device 10 provided in the power station 1.

  The power station 1 is provided to support the control station 5 and is connected to the control station 5 through an electronic communication line. In addition, the power station 1 is connected to a plurality of rainfall stations 21, 21,... Using electric communication lines. And the electric power station 1 is provided with the flow volume prediction apparatus 10 which calculates the estimated flow volume over the future of the river 6 using the rainfall acquired from the several rainfall observation stations 21, 21, .... The flow rate prediction device 10 provides (transmits) the calculated predicted flow rate to the control station 5 and can support power generation in the dam 4. The control station 5 is provided with a display device (not shown) that displays the provided expected flow rate (data). The display device (not shown) can display the actual flow rate that is the actual inflow amount (flow rate of the river 6) to the adjustment pond 3 and the provided expected flow rate (data). In the control station 5, the actual flow rate and the expected flow rate (data) displayed on a display device (not shown) by the operator are referred to, and the power generation amount and the water discharge amount in the dam 1 can be changed. As shown in FIG. 1 in the present embodiment, the control station 5 may have a configuration provided inside the power station 1 in addition to a configuration provided separately from the power station 1.

  Next, a method for obtaining the predicted flow rate from the rainfall will be described.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the rainfall into the basin 2 is classified into several components. First, part of the rainfall in the basin 2 flows out to the river 6 through the surface (surface) of the basin 2. This is the surface runoff component rainfall. The remainder penetrates underground from the surface (surface) of basin 2.

  A part of the rain that has penetrated from the ground surface to the underground flows out to the underline 6 through the formation leading to the groundwater. This is the intermediate runoff component rainfall. The rest will drain into groundwater.

  Further, a part of the rain that reaches the groundwater flows into the river 6 as groundwater. This is the groundwater outflow component. On the other hand, the remainder of the rain that has reached groundwater does not flow into the river 6. This is assumed to be rainfall for the loss. Thus, the amount of increase (runoff amount) in the flow rate of the river 6 can be obtained by obtaining the surface runoff component rainfall, the intermediate runoff component rainfall, and the groundwater runoff component rainfall.

  Therefore, as shown in FIG. 3, the rainfall per unit time (in this embodiment, 1 hour) is the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall (total amount of surface runoff component rainfall and intermediate runoff component rainfall) and groundwater runoff component rainfall. Each outflow characteristic (increase attenuation flow rate considering the arrival time) is calculated. And the outflow amount which flows out into the river 6 per unit time can be obtained by adding together the flow volume of two outflow characteristics for every unit time. Then, as shown in FIG. 4, the total outflow amount flowing out to the river 6 at each time is obtained by integrating the outflow amount into the river 6 calculated at each time in accordance with the time axis. be able to.

  The actual river 6 always has a flow rate called a base flow rate. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 5, the expected flow rate for the rainfall is calculated (created) by adding the base flow rate to the total outflow amount shown in FIG. The predicted flow rate data created in this way is assumed to be the predicted flow rate data.

  Here, the created predicted flow rate data shows general values, and the actual flow rate that is the actual flow rate of the river 6 is changed according to the change of the rainfall situation, season, situation before the rain, and river situation. An error may occur between the expected flow rate. For example, there is a variation in rainfall in the entire basin 2 as a rainfall situation, and there may be a difference from the rainfall in the basin 2 obtained from the rainfall acquired at the location of the rainfall observation station 21. In addition, due to the presence of wind, water retained by plants (water adhering to plant leaves) may flow out.

  Moreover, as an example of a season, it is mentioned that water flows out of a field by artificial operation. In addition, depending on the season, there may be a difference in water absorption by plants. As an example of the situation before rainfall, the difference in water discharge between the rainy season and the drought season can be mentioned. Examples of changes in river conditions include changes in river conditions due to river improvement and flooding. The flow rate prediction apparatus 10 and the flow rate prediction system according to the present embodiment correct errors caused by the above factors by changing the value indicated by the predicted flow rate data along the actual flow rate.

  As shown in FIG. 6, the flow prediction system includes a plurality of 21, 21,... Provided in the basin 2, a basin 2 that observes the actual flow that is the current flow, and rainfall observation stations 21, 21. And a flow rate predicting device 10 that transmits the generated predicted flow rate data to the control station. In the following description, the generally calculated predicted flow rate data is described as first predicted flow rate data, and the predicted flow rate data with the error corrected is described as second predicted flow rate data. In addition, the term “predicted flow rate” refers to the flow rate at each time predicted by the first predicted flow rate data or the second predicted flow rate data. In FIG. 6, an example in which one flow rate prediction device 10 is provided for one basin 2 and one control station 5 is shown. However, for a plurality of basins 2 or a plurality of control stations 5, 1 One flow rate prediction device 10 may be provided.

  The flow rate prediction device 10 is a flow rate prediction device 10 that calculates predicted flow rate data of the river 6 predicted in the future along the actual flow rate that is the actual flow rate of the current river 6, and stores a variety of information. Unit 103, a rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 that acquires the rainfall amount of the basin 2 every predetermined time, an average rainfall amount calculation unit 102 that calculates the average rainfall amount of the basin 2, and a second predicted flow rate according to the actual flow rate An expected flow rate calculation unit 104 that creates data and replaces the first predicted flow rate data is provided. Here, the predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 can also create the first expected flow rate data in advance before creating the second predicted flow rate data.

  The database unit 103 includes a component separation database 301 that stores a component separation table that separates rainfall into the basin 2 for each component, an outflow component database 302 that stores rainfall in the six river basins in time series, and an arbitrary amount of rainfall. A runoff characteristic database 303 for storing runoff characteristic data indicating changes in the flow rate of the river 6 corresponding to each time elapsed, and predicted flow rate data calculated in advance from the rainfall in the river basin 2 are stored as first predicted flow rate data. And an expected flow rate database 304.

  As shown in FIG. 7, the component separation database 301 stores a component separation table as an index for separating rainfall for each component as described above. The component separation table includes initial loss precipitation (rainfall that does not flow out due to absorption and water retention), groundwater runoff component rainfall upper limit value (upper limit value of rainfall flowing into groundwater), Indices of groundwater runoff component rainfall coefficient (coefficient of component flowing out of groundwater outflow into groundwater) and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall coefficient (coefficient of outflow of rainfall outflow component to surface and middle) Have. In this embodiment, the basin 2 is assumed to be the basin 1 shown in FIG. 1, the initial loss of precipitation (rainfall due to loss) is 35 mm, the groundwater runoff component rainfall is 3 mm / h, and the groundwater runoff component rainfall is 0.6. (Coefficient), the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall is 1.0 (coefficient).

  The runoff component database 302 stores, as rainfall, groundwater runoff component rainfall (amount) flowing into the groundwater and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall (amount) flowing between the surface and force of the river basin. More specifically, as shown in FIG. 8, the runoff component database 302 has a time series of observed rainfall values (average rainfall), single rainfall, calculated loss rainfall, runoff calculated rainfall, groundwater runoff component rainfall, surface intermediate runoff component. Stores rainfall and river base flow. The rainfall observation value (average rainfall) indicates the rainfall averaged over the rainfalls observed at a plurality of rainfall stations 21, 21,... Per unit time (in this embodiment, one hour). The single rainfall represents the rainfall obtained by integrating the rainfall per unit time in a single rainfall. Calculated loss rainfall indicates the amount of water that is assumed to be retained on the ground. Runoff rainfall indicates the amount of rain that corresponds to the amount of water that will actually flow into the river. The groundwater runoff component rainfall indicates the amount of rain corresponding to the amount of water that flows out as a groundwater runoff component. The surface intermediate runoff component rainfall indicates the amount of water flowing out as a surface component and an intermediate component.

  The runoff characteristic database 303 stores data indicating the correlation between the elapsed time in the amount of surface intermediate component rainfall and the runoff amount to the river 6 as shown in FIG. In addition, the runoff characteristic database 303 stores data indicating the correlation between the elapsed time in the amount of groundwater runoff component rainfall and the amount of runoff to the river 6. The outflow characteristic database 303 stores correlation data corresponding to each of a plurality of water volumes. That is, for example, the outflow characteristic database 303 stores data indicating a correlation for each water amount of 1 mm.

  The predicted flow rate database 304 stores first predicted flow rate data calculated in advance. Further, the predicted flow rate database 304 stores the generated second predicted flow rate data by replacing it with the first predicted flow rate data when the predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 generates the second predicted flow rate data.

  The rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 acquires rainfall amounts from a plurality of rainfall stations 21, 21,... At predetermined time intervals. The rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 acquires, for example, each of the rainfall amounts from a plurality of rainfall stations 21, 21,... Every unit time (every hour). The rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 links the acquired rainfall amount to each of the plurality of rainfall observation stations 21, 21... And sends it to the average rainfall calculation unit 102.

  The average rainfall calculation unit 102 acquires the component separation table from the component separation database 301, calculates the average rainfall of the basin from the acquired rainfall, and separates the average rainfall based on the component separation table. Store in the outflow component database 302. The average rainfall calculation unit 102 calculates and separates the average rainfall for each rainfall sent from the rainfall acquisition unit 101 every predetermined time, and stores the average rainfall in the outflow component database 302 in time series.

  The predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 obtains a correction coefficient from the deviation between the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 that acquires the current actual flow rate and the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the acquired current actual flow rate. A correction amount calculation unit 109 that calculates a corrected rainfall amount obtained by multiplying the coefficient and each of the rainfall amounts stored in time series in the runoff component database, and a second predicted current flow rate from the present to the future using the corrected rainfall amount. An expected flow rate data creation unit 105 that creates predicted flow rate data and replaces the first predicted flow rate data, and an expected flow rate data transmission unit 106 that transmits the second predicted flow rate data to the control station 5 are provided.

  The predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate and the acquired actual flow rate in the generated second predicted flow rate data, and verifies whether the deviation is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. And a time measuring unit 107 that outputs a trigger every predetermined time.

  The actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 is connected to the control station 5 via an electronic communication line. The actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 acquires the actual flow rate that is the current flow rate from the river 6 to the adjustment pond 3 from the control station 5. The actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 acquires the actual flow rate based on the trigger output from the time measuring unit 107. The actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 sends the acquired actual flow rate to the corrected flow rate calculation unit 109.

  The corrected flow rate calculation unit 109 includes a flow rate difference calculation unit 901 that calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the current actual flow rate, and a correction coefficient for correcting the rainfall based on the deviation. A correction coefficient calculation unit 902 that calculates the amount of rainfall and a correction rainfall amount calculation unit 903 that calculates the corrected rainfall amount by multiplying each of the rainfall amounts stored in the runoff component database in time series by the correction coefficient.

  The flow rate difference calculation unit 901 acquires first predicted flow rate data from the predicted flow rate database 304. The flow rate difference calculation unit 901 acquires the actual flow rate sent from the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108. Then, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 calculates a difference between the current predicted flow rate and the actual flow rate by calculating a difference between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate. The flow rate difference calculation unit 901 sends the calculated deviation to the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 when the deviation is greater than or equal to a predetermined value.

  The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 acquires the basal flow rate stored in the outflow component database 302. The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 calculates a correction coefficient by dividing the difference between the actual flow rate and the base flow rate by the difference between the current predicted flow rate and the base flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data. The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 sends the calculated correction coefficient to the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903.

  The corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 acquires time (date and time), groundwater outflow component rainfall, and surface intermediate component rainfall data for each time from the runoff characteristic database 303. The corrected rainfall amount is calculated by multiplying each of the groundwater runoff component rainfall and the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall by a correction coefficient. That is, the corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 multiplies the correction coefficient acquired from the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 and each of the groundwater runoff component rainfall acquired from the runoff characteristic database 303. The corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 multiplies the correction coefficient acquired from the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 and each of the surface intermediate component rainfall data acquired from the outflow characteristic database 303. The corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 sends each of the multiplied results as a corrected rainfall amount to the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 together with the time acquired from the outflow characteristic database 303.

  The predicted flow data creation unit 105 reads out runoff characteristic data corresponding to each of all the corrected rainfall amounts from the runoff characteristic database 303, and sums up the flow shown in the runoff characteristic data for each time from the present to the future. 2 Create expected flow data. More specifically, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 acquires runoff characteristic data corresponding to the corrected rainfall amount related to the groundwater runoff component rainfall from the runoff characteristic database 303 at every time. Further, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 obtains outflow characteristic data corresponding to the corrected rainfall amount related to the surface intermediate outflow component rainfall from the outflow characteristic database 303 at every time. Then, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 calculates the total outflow amount by adding the flow rates of the outflow characteristic data acquired at each time for each elapsed time. Further, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 adds up the calculated total runoff amount for each elapsed time over the time, and creates a predicted total runoff amount for each elapsed time of the river 6. The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 acquires the base flow rate from the outflow component database 302 and adds the base flow rate to the created total outflow rate to create second predicted flow rate data.

  The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 replaces the created second predicted flow rate data with the first predicted flow rate data stored in the predicted flow rate database 304 and stores it. Then, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 sends the created second predicted flow rate data to the verification unit 110.

  The expected flow rate data transmission unit 106 is connected to the control station 5 via an electric communication line. The predicted flow rate data transmission unit 106 transmits the second predicted flow rate data transmitted from the verification unit 110 to the control station 5. The predicted flow rate data transmission unit 106 transmits the second predicted flow rate data to the control station 5, so that the actual flow rate and the second predicted flow rate data as shown in FIG.

  The verification unit 110 acquires the second predicted flow rate data created from the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105. Further, the verification unit 110 acquires the actual flow rate from the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108. The verification unit 110 calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the second predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate. Then, when the deviation between the second predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate is within a predetermined range, the verification unit 110 transmits the acquired second predicted flow rate data to the control station 5 via the predicted flow rate data transmission unit 106. To do.

  On the other hand, when the deviation is greater than or equal to a predetermined value, the verification unit 110 sends the created second predicted flow rate data to the corrected flow rate calculation unit 109. As a result, the verification unit 110 uses the generated second predicted flow data and actual flow rate again when the deviation between the second predicted flow data and the actual flow rate is still more than a certain level, and again uses the second predicted flow rate data and actual flow rate. Let the data be created.

  The timer unit 107 is, for example, a timer. The timing unit 107 outputs a trigger to the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 every predetermined time.

  The configurations of the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system according to the present embodiment are as described above. Next, flowcharts of the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system will be described with reference to FIGS. 10 and 11.

  FIG. 10 shows an overall flowchart for creating the first predicted flow rate data and the second predicted flow rate data. First, the rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 acquires the rainfall amount at predetermined time intervals from each of the plurality of rainfall observation stations 21, 21... Arranged in the basin 2 (step S <b> 1). The rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 sends the acquired rainfall amount to the average rainfall amount calculation unit 102.

  The average rainfall calculation unit 102 obtains the average rainfall using the rainfall transmitted from the rainfall acquisition unit 101 (step S2). Moreover, the average rainfall calculation part 102 acquires a component separation table from the component separation database 301, and calculates | requires groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall from average rainfall (step S3). The average rainfall calculation unit 102 stores the obtained average rainfall, groundwater outflow component rainfall, and surface intermediate component rainfall in the outflow component database 302 in time series.

  The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 acquires, from the runoff component database 302, groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate component rain at all times. Further, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 acquires runoff characteristic data corresponding to each of groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate component rain from the runoff property database 303 (step S4). The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 adds the flow rates indicated in the acquired outflow characteristic data for each elapsed time (step S5). Then, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 further sums the base flow rates to create first predicted flow rate data. The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 stores the created first predicted flow rate data in the predicted flow rate database 304 and transmits it to the control center 5 via the predicted flow rate data transmission unit 106 (step S6).

  Then, the predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 compares the first predicted flow rate data with the actual flow rate data every predetermined time, and corrects the first predicted flow rate data (step S7).

  Describing step S7 in more detail, as shown in FIG. 11, the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 acquires the actual flow rate from the control station 5 based on the trigger output from the time measuring unit 107 every predetermined time (step S71). ). The actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 sends the acquired actual flow rate to the flow rate difference calculation unit 901.

  The flow rate difference calculation unit 901 acquires the first predicted flow rate data from the predicted flow rate database 304 and acquires the actual flow rate from the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108. The flow rate difference calculation unit 901 is. A deviation between the first predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate data is acquired (calculated) (step S72). When the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 determines that the deviation is within the predetermined range, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 ends the process (NO in step S73). On the other hand, when determining that the deviation is out of the predetermined range, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 transmits the deviation value to the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 (YES in step S73).

  The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 calculates a correction coefficient using the transmitted deviation value (step S74). The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 sends the calculated correction coefficient to the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903.

  The corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 acquires, from the runoff component database 302, groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall at every time point. The corrected rainfall calculation unit 903 calculates a corrected rainfall by multiplying each of the acquired groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall by a correction coefficient (step S75). The corrected rainfall calculation unit 903 sends the calculated corrected rainfall to the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105.

  The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 creates second predicted flow rate data using the corrected rainfall amount transmitted from the corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903. The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 replaces the created second predicted flow rate data with the first predicted flow rate data stored in the predicted flow rate database 304 and stores the data. In addition, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 sends the created second predicted flow rate data to the verification unit 110.

  The verification unit 110 acquires the actual flow rate from the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108. In addition, the verification unit 110 acquires the second predicted flow rate data transmitted from the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105. The verification unit 110 obtains a deviation between the second predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate, and determines whether the deviation is within a predetermined range (step S77). If the verification unit 110 determines that the deviation is not within the predetermined range (NO in step S77), the verification unit 110 sends the second predicted flow rate data to the corrected flow rate calculation unit 109, and again between the second predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate data. 2 Create expected flow data. That is, the corrected flow rate calculation unit 109 calculates the corrected rainfall amount again.

  Specifically, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 acquires second predicted flow rate data and actual flow rate data. The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 calculates a correction coefficient again from the second predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate. The corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 calculates the corrected rainfall amount again from the recalculated correction coefficient and the groundwater outflow rainfall and the surface intermediate outflow component rainfall stored in the outflow component database 302. The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 creates second predicted flow rate data using the corrected rainfall calculated again. The predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 replaces the second predicted flow rate data created again with the second predicted flow rate data stored in the predicted flow rate database 304 and stores the data. Also, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 sends the second predicted flow rate data created again to the verification unit 110. The verification unit 110 obtains a deviation from the second predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate created again, and repeats the above flow until the deviation falls within a predetermined range.

  On the other hand, when the verification unit 110 determines that the deviation is within the predetermined range (step S77 YES), the verification unit 110 transmits the second predicted flow rate data to the control station 5 via the predicted flow rate data transmission unit 106 (step S78).

  As described above, the flow rate predicting device 10 according to the present embodiment is a flow rate predicting device 10 that calculates predicted flow rate data of a river predicted in the future along with the actual flow rate that is the actual flow rate of the current river 6. An outflow component database 302 for storing the rainfall in the river basin 2 in time series; an expected flow database 304 for storing the predicted flow data calculated in advance from the rainfall in the river basin 2 as first predicted flow data; A predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 that generates second predicted flow rate data that matches the actual flow rate and replaces the first predicted flow rate data, and the predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 includes an actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 that acquires a current actual flow rate; The correction coefficient is obtained from the deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the acquired current actual flow rate, and is stored in the correction coefficient and the outflow component database in time series. A corrected amount calculation unit 109 for calculating a corrected rainfall amount that is multiplied by each of the measured rainfall amounts, and a second predicted flow rate data that is a predicted flow rate from the present to the future is created using the corrected rainfall amount, and the first predicted flow rate is calculated. And an expected flow rate data creation unit 105 for replacing the flow rate data.

  Further, the flow rate prediction system according to the present embodiment includes a plurality of rainfall stations 21, 21... Provided in the basin 2, a control station 5 that observes the actual flow rate that is the current flow rate, a rainfall station 21, ... Is provided with a flow rate prediction device 10 that obtains the rainfall amount from 21... And transmits the generated second predicted flow rate data to the control station 5.

  According to such a configuration, when there is a deviation of the current actual flow rate with respect to the predicted flow rate indicated by the first predicted flow rate data, the correction amount calculation unit 109 uses the deviation as a correction coefficient in time series in the outflow component database. The rainfall stored in is corrected. Thereby, the correction amount calculation unit 109 acquires the corrected rainfall amount corrected according to the deviation. The predicted flow data creation unit 105 can create predicted flow data along the current actual flow by creating second predicted flow data based on the corrected rainfall. Since it is only necessary to calculate the corrected rainfall using the correction coefficient calculated according to the deviation and create the second predicted flow rate data using the corrected rainfall, it is not necessary to repeat the calculation until the corrected rainfall is calculated. It is possible to provide a flow rate predicting device 10 that can be reduced and that has high accuracy along the actual flow rate.

  In this configuration, the correction amount calculation unit 109 includes a flow rate difference calculation unit 901 that calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the current actual flow rate, and calculates the rainfall amount based on the deviation. A correction coefficient calculation unit 902 that calculates a correction coefficient for correction, and a corrected rainfall calculation unit that calculates the corrected rainfall by multiplying each of the rainfalls stored in the runoff component database 302 in time series by the correction coefficient 903.

  According to this configuration, the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 calculates a correction coefficient from the deviation obtained by the flow rate calculation unit 901. The corrected rainfall amount calculation unit 903 calculates the corrected rainfall amount by multiplying each of the rainfall amounts stored in time series by the correction coefficient, so that the corrected rainfall amount that matches the current actual flow rate can be obtained. Thereby, it is not necessary to repeat the calculation up to the corrected rainfall amount, the processing load can be reduced, and the flow rate prediction device 10 with high accuracy along the actual flow rate can be provided.

  In addition, in the above aspect, the vehicle further includes an outflow characteristic database 303 that stores outflow characteristic data indicating changes in river flow corresponding to an arbitrary amount of rainfall for each elapsed time, and the predicted flow data generation unit 105 includes all corrected rainfall. The second predicted flow rate data may be created by reading out outflow characteristic data corresponding to each of the quantities and adding the flow rates indicated in the outflow characteristic data at each time from the present to the future.

  According to such a configuration, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 can create the second predicted flow rate data by reading outflow characteristic data corresponding to the corrected rainfall amount and simply summing up each time. Thereby, a process can be reduced also when producing 2nd prediction flow volume data.

  In the above aspect, the outflow component database 302 further stores the base flow rate of the river, and the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 indicates the difference between the actual flow rate and the base flow rate as the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data. The correction coefficient may be calculated by dividing by the difference between the flow rate and the base flow rate.

  According to such a configuration, since the correction coefficient is calculated simply by subtraction and division, the processing load related to the calculation of the correction coefficient can be reduced.

  In the above aspect, the runoff component database 302 stores, as the rainfall, the groundwater runoff component rainfall that flows into the groundwater and the surface intermediate runoff component rain that flows between the surface and force of the river basin, and the correction amount calculation unit 902 may calculate a corrected rainfall amount by multiplying each of the groundwater runoff component rainfall and the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall by a correction coefficient.

  According to such a configuration, the rainfall is subdivided into groundwater runoff component rainfall and surface intermediate runoff component rainfall. Thereby, the outflow amount according to the condition of a basin and the time of rainfall can be obtained. Then, since the correction amount calculation unit 902 calculates the corrected rainfall amount by multiplying these subdivided rainfall amounts by the correction coefficient, it is possible to obtain a corrected rainfall amount with higher accuracy.

  Further, in the above aspect, a component separation database 301 that stores parameters for separating rainfall into the basin 2 as a component separation table, a rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 that acquires rainfall in the basin every predetermined time, An average of acquiring a component separation table from the component separation database 301, calculating an average rainfall of the basin from the acquired rainfall, separating the average rainfall based on the component separation table, and storing it in the outflow component database 302 A rainfall amount calculation unit 102 may be further included.

  According to such a configuration, it is possible to separate the rainfall amount into each component using the parameter for separating the rainfall amount into the river basin into the components. Thereby, the amount of rainfall can be separated into each component using the situation specific to the river basin (such as the situation of the strata and the water discharge time). And by using the average rainfall, it is possible to correct the uneven rainfall in the basin. Since the runoff component database 302 can store each component of the amount of rainfall that takes into account the bias of rainfall into the basin and the situation specific to the river basin, it can store information with higher accuracy.

  In the above aspect, the predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate and the acquired actual flow rate in the created second predicted flow rate data, and verifies whether the deviation is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. The verification unit 110 further sends the generated second predicted flow rate data to the corrected flow rate calculation unit 109 when the deviation is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, and the correction amount calculation unit 109 The corrected rainfall amount may be calculated, and the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 may create second predicted flow rate data using the corrected rainfall amount calculated again.

  According to such a configuration, even when the predicted flow rate of the second predicted flow rate data has a predetermined difference or more than the actual flow rate, the second predicted flow rate data is again obtained using the generated second predicted flow rate data. Because it is created, the second predicted flow rate data with higher accuracy can be obtained.

  Further, in the above aspect, the predicted flow rate calculation unit 104 further includes a time measuring unit 107 that outputs a trigger every predetermined time, and the time measuring unit 107 outputs a trigger to the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108, and the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 may acquire the actual flow rate based on the trigger.

  According to such a configuration, it is possible to determine whether or not to correct the first predicted flow rate data every predetermined time. Therefore, it is possible to obtain an expected flow rate with high accuracy consistent with the actual flow rate.

  It should be noted that the flow rate predicting apparatus and the flow rate predicting system according to the present invention are not limited to the above-described embodiments, and it is needless to say that various changes can be made without departing from the scope of the present invention. Moreover, it is needless to say that configurations, methods, and the like according to various modifications described below may be arbitrarily selected and employed in the configurations, methods, and the like according to the above-described embodiments.

  For example, in the flow rate prediction device 10 and the flow rate prediction system according to the present embodiment, the second predicted flow rate is created based on the rainfall amount. On the other hand, in the dry season, the flow rate of the river 6 may be lower than the base flow rate. is there. At this time, rainfall cannot be used. Therefore, the corrected flow rate calculation unit 109 may use a deviation between the current predicted flow rate shown in the first predicted flow rate data and the actual flow rate as the corrected rainfall amount. Specifically, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 acquires the first predicted flow rate data from the predicted flow rate database 304 and acquires the actual flow rate from the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108. The flow rate difference calculation unit 901 obtains a deviation between the first predicted flow rate and the actual flow rate, and sends the deviation to the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 when it is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. Further, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 determines whether the actual flow rate is lower than the base flow rate. When the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 determines that the actual flow rate is lower than the base flow rate, the flow rate difference calculation unit 901 sends a signal indicating that to the correction coefficient calculation unit 902.

  When the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 receives the signal, the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 uses the acquired deviation as a correction coefficient. The correction coefficient calculation unit 902 sends the signal and the correction coefficient to the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903. When the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903 receives the signal and the correction coefficient, the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903 transmits the signal and the correction coefficient to the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 as they are.

  When the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 receives the signal and the correction coefficient, the predicted flow rate data generation unit 105 sets data obtained by subtracting the correction coefficient from the first predicted flow rate data as second predicted flow rate data. Here, the predicted flow rate data creation unit 105 may create second predicted flow rate data that gradually decreases the predicted flow rate over a predetermined time (for example, 6 hours) in order to prevent a sudden change in the predicted flow rate. Accordingly, it is possible to provide the flow rate prediction device 10 and the flow rate prediction system with high accuracy not only during rainfall but also during drought.

  In the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system according to the embodiment, the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903 multiplies the groundwater runoff component rainfall and the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall acquired from the runoff component database 302 by the correction coefficient. did. On the other hand, when there is no rainfall for a long time, the correction coefficient calculation unit 902 replaces the groundwater outflow component rainfall and the surface intermediate outflow component rainfall with a predetermined value (for example, 1 mm) as the groundwater outflow component rainfall and the surface intermediate outflow component rainfall. A corrected rainfall may be calculated. As a result, it is possible to prevent the second predicted flow rate data from being corrected at all as compared with the first predicted flow rate data.

  In the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system according to the above embodiment, the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 acquires the actual flow rate from the control station 5, but the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 determines the water level of the adjustment pond 3. The actual flow rate may be calculated by calculating the moving average from the fluctuation amount. By doing in this way, even if it is possible to obtain only the actual water amount that is not highly accurate from the control station 5, it is possible to obtain the actual water amount with higher accuracy, and thus to obtain the predicted flow rate data with higher accuracy.

  Further, in the flow rate prediction device 10 and the flow rate prediction system according to the above-described embodiment, the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 acquires the actual flow rate when the timing unit 107 outputs a trigger. On the other hand, when the timing unit 107 outputs a trigger, the rainfall amount acquisition unit 101 may acquire the rainfall amount, and the actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 may acquire the actual flow rate.

  In addition, in the flow rate prediction device 10 and the flow rate prediction system according to the above-described embodiment, when there is another facility such as another dam upstream, the discharge flow rate of the facility may affect the actual flow rate. The actual flow rate acquisition unit 108 subtracts the discharge flow rate of the facility and the water usage amount of the facility from the actual flow rate so as to obtain the actual actual flow rate so that second predicted flow rate data different from the actual is not created. Also good.

  In addition, the actual actual flow rate may be calculated in consideration of the landing time from the facility to the adjustment reservoir 3 in consideration of the positional relationship between the facility and the adjustment reservoir 3.

  Further, in the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system according to the above embodiment, the rainfall is separated into the groundwater runoff component rainfall and the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall. good. In addition, the rainfall amount may be calculated separately for each component of the underground, intermediate, and surface runoff, or all components may be calculated collectively with one calculation formula. Then, the corrected rainfall calculation unit 903 may calculate the corrected rainfall by multiplying each separated outflow component by a correction coefficient.

  Further, in the flow prediction device 10 and the flow prediction system according to the above embodiment, as shown in FIGS. 3 to 5, as a method for predicting the water discharge into the river, the rainfall is separated into the respective components and the amount of runoff is calculated. The method of summing up was illustrated. In the said embodiment, it may replace with this method and may employ | adopt the method which can predict flooding, such as a tank model, a unit diagram, or a storage function.

1 Power Station 2 Basin 3 Regulating Pond 4 Dam 5 Control Station 10 Flow Prediction Device 21 Rainfall Observing Station 101 Rainfall Acquisition Unit 102 Average Rainfall Calculation Unit 103 Database Unit 104 Expected Flow Rate Calculation Unit 105 Expected Flow Rate Data Creation Unit 106 Expected Flow Rate Data Transmission unit 107 Timing unit 108 Actual flow rate acquisition unit 109 Corrected flow rate calculation unit 110 Verification unit 301 Component separation database 302 Outflow component database 303 Outflow characteristic database 304 Expected flow rate database 901 Flow rate difference calculation unit 902 Correction coefficient calculation unit 903 Corrected rainfall amount calculation unit

Claims (9)

A flow prediction device that calculates the expected flow data of the river that is expected in the future along the actual flow that is the actual flow of the current river,
Runoff component database that stores rainfall in river basin in time series,
A predicted flow rate database that stores predicted flow rate data calculated in advance from rainfall in the river basin as first predicted flow rate data;
A second expected flow rate data is created according to the actual flow rate, and an expected flow rate calculation unit that replaces the first predicted flow rate data is provided.
The expected flow rate calculation unit
An actual flow rate acquisition unit for acquiring the current actual flow rate;
A correction coefficient is obtained from the deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the acquired actual actual flow rate, and the correction coefficient is multiplied by each of the rainfall amounts stored in time series in the runoff component database. A correction amount calculation unit for calculating rainfall,
A flow rate prediction apparatus comprising: a predicted flow rate data creation unit that creates second predicted flow rate data that is a predicted flow rate from the present to the future using the corrected rainfall, and replaces the first predicted flow rate data. The correction amount calculation unit includes a flow rate difference calculation unit that calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data and the current actual flow rate,
A correction coefficient calculation unit that calculates a correction coefficient for correcting the rainfall based on the deviation;
The flow rate prediction device according to claim 1, further comprising a corrected rainfall calculation unit that calculates a corrected rainfall by multiplying each of the rainfalls stored in the runoff component database in time series by a correction coefficient. . It further comprises a runoff characteristic database that stores runoff characteristic data showing changes in river flow corresponding to an arbitrary amount of rainfall for each elapsed time,
The predicted flow data creation unit reads out the runoff characteristic data corresponding to each of the corrected rainfall amounts, and creates the second predicted flow data by adding the flow shown in the runoff characteristic data for each time from the present to the future. The flow rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, wherein The runoff component database further stores the base flow of the river,
The correction coefficient calculation unit calculates the correction coefficient by dividing the difference between the actual flow rate and the base flow rate by the difference between the current predicted flow rate and the base flow rate indicated in the first predicted flow rate data. Item 4. A flow rate prediction apparatus according to item 2 or 3. The runoff component database stores, as rainfall, the groundwater runoff component rainfall that flows into the groundwater and the surface intermediate runoff component rain that flows between the surface of the river basin and the groundwater ,
5. The corrected rainfall calculation unit calculates the corrected rainfall by multiplying each of the groundwater runoff component rainfall and the surface intermediate runoff component rainfall by a correction coefficient, according to any one of claims 2 to 4. The flow rate prediction device described. A component separation database for storing parameters for separating rainfall into the basin as a component separation table;
A rainfall acquisition unit that acquires rainfall in the basin at predetermined time intervals;
The average rainfall that acquires the component separation table from the component separation database, calculates the average rainfall of the basin from the acquired rainfall, separates the average rainfall based on the component separation table, and stores it in the outflow component database The flow rate prediction apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising a calculation unit. The predicted flow rate calculation unit further includes a verification unit that calculates a deviation between the current predicted flow rate in the created second predicted flow rate data and the acquired actual flow rate, and verifies whether the deviation is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. ,
The verification unit sends the created second predicted flow rate data to the corrected flow rate calculation unit when the deviation is greater than or equal to a predetermined value,
The correction amount calculation unit calculates the corrected rainfall amount again,
The predicted flow rate data creation unit creates second predicted flow rate data using the corrected rainfall calculated again, and the flow rate prediction device according to any one of claims 2 to 6. The expected flow rate calculation unit further includes a time measuring unit that outputs a trigger every predetermined time,
The timing unit outputs a trigger to the actual flow rate acquisition unit,
The actual flow rate acquisition unit acquires the actual flow rate based on a trigger, and the flow rate prediction device according to any one of claims 2 to 7.   Acquires rainfall data from multiple rainfall stations in the basin, a control station that observes the actual flow rate that is the current flow rate, and a rainfall station, and sends the created second predicted flow data to the control station A flow rate prediction system comprising: the flow rate prediction device according to claim 1.

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