CN111898303A - River basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation - Google Patents
River basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of geographic data processing and modeling, hydrodynamic simulation and water conservancy forecasting, and discloses a drainage basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation, which comprises the following specific implementation steps of: s1, determining a research area according to research needs, and planning a watershed boundary of a researched water area; and S2, determining a research river channel, defining a river channel boundary according to requirements, and correcting the river channel boundary. The invention comprises the flow and the simulation steps of the modeling of the whole river channel and urban areas, and also comprises a simulation adjustment and correction method, the steps combined with the actual situation are explained in detail on the basis of comprehensively applying a computational fluid mechanics method, and the invention also comprises a geographic information technology, a weather forecast technology, an automation technology and the like, thereby actually solving the problem that the urban waterlogging and the river channel flow velocity and flow distribution can be actually displayed, improving the capability and the precision of water conservancy simulation forecast, and developing the technical combination with the water conservancy related specialty.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of geographic data processing and modeling, hydrodynamic simulation and water conservancy forecasting, in particular to a drainage basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation.
Background
In the past, the hydrologic prediction process has many problems, and due to the fact that finite element modeling is high in cost and high-precision modeling calculation time is too long. With the rapid development of the internet of things technology and the rapid popularization of high-performance calculation, the problem of calculated amount is greatly relieved, under the background that the water situation is severe in the 2020 flood season and machines are urgently needed, how to truly simulate and forecast the water situation of a river channel in a short time is the focus of current water conservancy modeling simulation, meanwhile, hydrologic forecast can provide forecast assistance for decision making during the flood season, establish a finite element model for reservoirs, urban inland inundations, culverts, flood dams and the like and complete hydrodynamic simulation, the increasing demand of the business is met, the distribution of the actual river channel water level flow and flow velocity is jointly acted by factors such as upstream flow, local geographic factors, local rainfall runoff and the like, and the strong local difference is shown, so the simulation difficulty of a river channel drainage basin lies in whether the establishment of the finite element model meets the real situation or not, and the establishment of the finite element model is divided into the establishment of a grid and the mapping of geographic data, the quality of the grid lies in the height of the modeling technology, usually need to be artificial to carry on the secondary correction based on the satellite live or on-the-spot investigation on the basis of automatic grid establishment, the quality of the geographic data has direct relation with the quality of geographic data products or quality of surveying and mapping on the spot, there are great differences in the details in the model that the data that uses different sources obtain, need to correct the simulation result, the hydrologic prediction mainly uses the empirical formula to predict and warn, calculate the future water level of single-stop/multistation based on single-stop/multistation water level, local rainfall and historical data fitting empirical formula, this kind of early warning method is very simple and effective, still combine with one-dimensional river model, often can reach the effect of fast prediction, this method relies on a large amount of historical data, it is more accurate; in addition, a hydrodynamic model developed by colleges and universities in China according to a Navier-Stokes equation or a simplified shallow water wave equation and CFD commercial/open source software researched and developed based on a computational fluid dynamics theory abroad can be used as a two-dimensional and three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation model; and a forecasting model obtained by a machine learning-based method is obtained by combining a mature neural network algorithm.
The existing watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation mainly adopts an empirical formula to carry out forecasting and early warning, has strong locality, and if a research area has no historical data, estimation is often carried out according to the water levels and the flows of upstream and downstream stations, so that the error is large, and the waterlogging result obtained by combining a one-dimensional river model or a waterlogging model can only meet quantitative simulation, cannot reflect actual river flow velocity distribution and waterlogging distribution, and is not beneficial to popularization and application.
Disclosure of Invention
Technical problem to be solved
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a drainage basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation, which has the advantages of wide application range, higher precision, capability of perfecting the spatial distribution of the whole forecasting, stronger guiding significance and the like, and solves and overcomes the problems of large data volume and limited application range in the common experience forecasting method.
(II) technical scheme
In order to improve the application range and precision of the forecast, perfect the spatial distribution of the whole forecast result and provide a scheme with guiding significance for urban inland inundation, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation comprises the following specific implementation steps:
s1, determining a research area according to research needs, and planning a watershed boundary of a water area to be researched;
s2, determining a research river channel, defining a river channel boundary according to requirements and correcting the river channel boundary, wherein satellite pictures can be used when the river channel boundary is defined and corrected;
s3, determining an urban area, and determining whether to start high-precision urban building group modeling according to user requirements so as to facilitate workers to judge whether to perform grid encryption processing on a research area;
s4, determining an urban area, determining whether a rainfall-runoff module is started according to user requirements, and if the rainfall-runoff module is started, using soil type data and land utilization type data to obtain a CN value; and if not, not adding the CN value data.
S5, setting a water level according to the existing hydrological detection station data as a reference, and recording the position of the hydrological detection station as a simulation result check point;
s6, determining rainfall research, determining whether to start rainfall-runoff simulation or not according to user requirements, and whether to start rainfall with time-space variation or not, if so, adjusting rainfall parameters in the steps, and selecting a recompiled time-space distribution type rainfall input module;
s7, adjusting an available parameterization scheme of a basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method TELEMAC model based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
s8, completing a simulation adaptation stage, establishing upper and lower limits of flow of an inlet area of a simulation model according to the upper and lower limits of the flow obtained in the step S5 and corresponding rainfall conditions, obtaining a series of simulation water level flow results of hydrologic stations by using simulation control established in the steps S6 and S7, completing adaptation, and if a plurality of stations exist, ensuring that the simulation results of the plurality of stations meet requirements;
s9, in a simulation operation stage, making live hydrological data and live/forecast meteorological data required by a simulation model;
and S10, in the post-simulation processing stage, operating a data processing program, making a database, a live image and the like, and butting with other expansion platforms.
Preferably, in step S3, according to the research and the user requirement, urban area encryption is enabled, and the process of encrypting the urban area grid is as follows:
step S31, identifying urban buildings, setting corresponding building heights, and encrypting grids between urban streets and building groups;
step S32, correcting the height of the corresponding building in the geographical elevation data, wherein the height corresponds to the height of the mapped building, and if no actual mapping data exists, simplifying the height of the building and classifying the building;
and step S33, mapping the elevation data to the grid manufactured in the step S31.
Preferably, in the step S4, the rainfall runoff module is started according to research and user requirements, and the runoff CN value making process is as follows:
step S41, determining the soil type of the land through the regional soil type database, and converting the soil type into a soil type defined by the soil holding bureau of America according to the content of each component of the soil;
step S42, determining the CN value and the Manning coefficient of the land according to the land utilization rate of the area;
and step S43, mapping the elevation data to the grid manufactured in the step S31.
Preferably, the step S6 is to start the rainfall-runoff module according to research and user requirements, wherein the steps are as follows:
step S61, opening related options of a rainfall module in a watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
s62, selecting a rainfall condition forecast data source and making rainfall data;
step S63, selecting a space-time distribution type rainfall interface in a rainfall forecasting method rainfall module of the watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation, and inputting rainfall data in the running stage of the watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the TELEMAC based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation.
Preferably, the step S8 is to complete a simulation adaptation phase, where the steps are as follows:
step S81, establishing a flow sequence Q0 and a water level sequence H0 according to the historical flow and the water level of the hydrological station obtained in the step 5, accordingly, making an upper and lower limit sequence Q1 of the inlet area flow of the simulation model, setting a sliding sequence of the simulation inlet flow, and performing simulation to obtain a water level sequence H2 and a flow sequence Q2 at the coordinate position of the hydrological station in the simulation model;
step S82, obtaining an H0-F0 (Q0), an F0 fitting equation, an H2-F2 (Q2) and an F2 fitting equation according to the Q0 and H0 sequence and the Q2 and H2 sequence obtained in step S81, and the basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method Q ^ b + c (water level in H table and flow rate in Q table) based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
step S83, calculating the Q0 and H0 sequences, and the correlation and significance of the Q2 and H2 sequences;
and S83, obtaining conversion equations F of F0 and F2 according to the F0 and F2 fitting equations obtained in the step S82, namely the fitting equations of the hydrological station and the fitting equations of the hydrological station simulation, and further obtaining real data through calculation of the conversion equations F according to the simulation data to complete adaptation of model simulation.
(III) advantageous effects
Compared with the prior art, the invention provides a drainage basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation, which has the following beneficial effects: the invention comprises the flow and the simulation steps of the modeling of the whole river channel and urban areas, and also comprises a simulation adjustment and correction method, the steps combined with the actual situation are explained in detail on the basis of comprehensively applying a computational fluid mechanics method, and the invention also comprises a geographic information technology, a weather forecast technology, an automation technology and the like, thereby actually solving the problem that the urban waterlogging and the river channel flow velocity and flow distribution can be actually displayed, improving the capability and the precision of water conservancy simulation forecast, and developing the technical combination with the water conservancy related specialty.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for forecasting basin water level and waterlogging based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flow chart illustrating a method for forecasting the basin water level and waterlogging based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1-2, the present invention provides a technical solution: a basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation comprises the following specific implementation steps:
s1, determining a research area according to research needs, and defining a basin boundary by using a QGIS (quantitative geographic information system) or Google Earth software based on a basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method of weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
s2, determining a research river channel, defining a river channel boundary according to requirements, correcting the river channel boundary, and obtaining mapping data by using a satellite picture or QGIS (geographic information system) or Google Earth software when defining the river channel boundary and correcting the river channel boundary;
s3, determining an urban area, determining whether to start high-precision urban building group modeling according to user requirements so as to facilitate workers to judge whether to perform grid encryption processing on a research area, if so, confirming and dividing the urban area by using land utilization type data and satellite picture data or surveying and mapping data, and performing grid encryption processing on the urban building group gradient dense area, wherein the grid encryption processing on the urban building group gradient dense area is high in precision but long in required operation time; if the network encryption is not started, the network encryption processing is cancelled, and the network encryption processing is carried out on the common terrain, so that the accuracy is low, but the required operation time is short;
specifically, step S3 is to start urban area encryption according to research and user requirements, and the process of encrypting the urban area grid is as follows:
step S31, identifying urban buildings according to the satellite images or the mapping data and specifying corresponding building heights, encrypting grids between urban streets and building groups by using BlueKenue software, and encrypting a calculation layer according to user requirements, wherein the calculation layer generally comprises 1-3 layers;
step S32, correcting the height of the corresponding building in the geographic elevation data, which corresponds to the height of the mapped building, and if there is no actual mapping data, simplifying the height of the building, which may be classified, for example: the low buildings can be set to be 5m, the high buildings can be set to be 20m, and then data are recorded, so that the working efficiency is improved;
in step S33, the elevation data is mapped to the grid created in step S31 using BlueKenue.
S4, determining an urban area, determining whether a rainfall-runoff module is started according to user requirements, if so, using soil type data and land utilization type data, establishing a python conversion program according to a runoff Curve Number (CN) value of the U.S. soil conservation bureau, and acquiring the CN value; and if not, not adding the CN value data.
Specifically, step S4, according to the research and the user requirement, the rainfall runoff module is started, and the runoff CN value making process is as follows:
step S41, determining the soil type of the land through the area soil type database, for example: the retention rice soil is mostly loamy clay, the content of clay grains is 25-30%, the content of silt is 30-40%, and the soil type defined by the soil maintenance bureau is converted through the content of each component of the soil;
step S42, determining the CN value and the Manning coefficient of the land according to the land utilization rate of the area, wherein the CN value and the Manning coefficient of the land adopt a program based on python according to soil type data and land utilization rate type data;
in step S43, the elevation data is mapped to the grid created in step S31 using BlueKenue.
In this step, in the geographic information data processing portion, the data may be processed using commercial software ArcGIS, GolbalMapper, or the like, or using an expansion kit of python, or the like, so that a consistent result may be achieved.
S5, setting a water level according to the existing hydrological detection station data as a reference, and recording the position of the hydrological detection station as a simulation result check point;
s6, determining rainfall research, determining whether to start rainfall-runoff simulation or not according to user requirements, and whether to start rainfall with time-space variation or not, if so, adjusting rainfall parameters in the steps, and selecting a recompiled time-space distribution type rainfall input module;
specifically, step S6 is to start the rainfall-runoff module according to research and user requirements, wherein the steps are as follows:
step S61, opening related options of a rainfall module in a watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
s62, selecting a rainfall condition forecast data source and making rainfall data;
step S63, selecting a space-time distribution type rainfall interface in a rainfall forecasting method rainfall module of the watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation, and inputting rainfall data in the running stage of the watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the TELEMAC based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation.
S7, adjusting available parameterization schemes of a basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method TELEMAC model based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation, wherein the parameterization schemes are more in preset types and need to be adapted according to the existing research and local conditions, and external control factors comprise upstream flow/water level, rainfall conditions, geographical static data, wind fields, simulation time control and the like;
s8, completing a simulation adaptation stage, establishing upper and lower limits of flow of an inlet area of a simulation model according to the upper and lower limits of the flow of the passing flow obtained in the step S5 and corresponding rainfall conditions, obtaining a series of simulation water level flow results of hydrologic stations by using simulation control established in the steps S6 and S7, completing adaptation, if a plurality of stations exist, ensuring that the simulation results of the plurality of stations meet requirements, otherwise, performing the steps S6 and S7 and relevant model adjustment again, and improving the accuracy of the simulation results;
specifically, step S8 is to complete the simulation adaptation phase, where the steps are as follows:
step S81, establishing a flow sequence Q0 and a water level sequence H0 according to the historical flow and the water level of the hydrological station obtained in the step S5, accordingly, making an upper and lower limit sequence Q1 of the inlet area flow of the simulation model, setting a sliding sequence of the simulation inlet flow, and performing simulation to obtain a water level sequence H2 and a flow sequence Q2 at the coordinate position of the hydrological station in the simulation model;
step S82, obtaining an H0-F0 (Q0), an F0 fitting equation, an H2-F2 (Q2) and an F2 fitting equation according to the Q0 and H0 sequence and the Q2 and H2 sequence obtained in step S81 and according to a standard fitting equation H-basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method Q ^ b + c (H represents water level and Q represents flow rate) based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
step S83, calculating the Q0 and H0 sequences, and the correlation and significance of the Q2 and H2 sequences;
and S83, obtaining conversion equations F of F0 and F2 according to the F0 and F2 fitting equations obtained in the step S82, namely the fitting equations of the hydrological station and the fitting equations of the hydrological station simulation, and further obtaining real data through calculation of the conversion equations F according to the simulation data to complete adaptation of model simulation.
S9, in a simulation operation stage, according to live hydrological station observation data, meteorological live data of a meteorological station, meteorological forecast data of the meteorological station, assimilation high-resolution meteorological data based on WRF + satellites and inversion rainfall data based on a high-resolution radar for deep learning, the live hydrological data and the live/forecast meteorological data required by a simulation model are manufactured, an automatic operation program is used for operation, the solving precision of finite element simulation is monitored in a live way, and the completeness and effectiveness of a solving process can be guaranteed;
it should be noted that, in the selection of the meteorological data, other mature data products in the meteorological industry can be used, and then a series of other rainfall data can be created and obtained.
And S10, in the post-simulation processing stage, operating a data processing program, making a database, a live image and the like, and butting with other expansion platforms.
It should be noted that, in the hydrodynamic simulation model part, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, EFDCExplorer, rainstorm flood management model (SWMM), Delft3D, MIKE 11, MIKE 21, MIKE uban, and some water quality numerical simulation software may also achieve similar functions, but the compiling language, the operating efficiency, the solving speed, and the automation degree of the software are all obviously different, and in the simulation modeling of different scales, the functions of the software may be used alternately to achieve similar results.
The river basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation mainly aims at fine modeling, the resolution of a research object of the whole process is from 30 meters to ten kilometers, the water conservancy solution scheme on the market is mainly water system modeling of hundreds of kilometers, the drainage basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation comprises the whole flow and simulation steps of river channel and urban area modeling, and also comprises a simulation adjustment and correction method, on the basis of comprehensively applying the computational fluid dynamics method, the steps combined with the actual situation are specified in detail, the method also comprises a geographic information technology, a weather forecasting technology, an automation technology and the like, the problem that urban waterlogging and river flow velocity and flow distribution can be actually displayed in the prior art is solved, the capability and the precision of water conservancy simulation forecasting are improved, and the technology combination with water conservancy related specialties is developed.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (5)
1. A basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation is characterized by comprising the following specific implementation steps:
s1, determining a research area according to research needs, and planning a watershed boundary of a researched water area;
s2, determining a research river channel, defining a river channel boundary according to requirements, and correcting the river channel boundary;
s3, determining an urban area, and determining whether to start high-precision urban building group modeling according to user requirements;
s4, determining an urban area, determining whether a rainfall-runoff module is started according to user requirements, and if the rainfall-runoff module is started, using soil type data and land utilization type data to obtain a CN value; and if not, not adding the CN value data.
S5, setting a water level according to the existing hydrological detection station data as a reference, and recording the position of the hydrological detection station as a simulation result check point;
s6, determining rainfall research, determining whether to start rainfall-runoff simulation or not according to user requirements, and whether to start rainfall with time-space variation or not, if so, adjusting rainfall parameters in the steps, and selecting a recompiled time-space distribution type rainfall input module;
s7, adjusting a usable parameterization scheme of a basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method TELEMAC model based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
s8, completing a simulation adaptation stage, establishing upper and lower limits of the flow of the inlet area of the simulation model according to the upper and lower limits of the flow obtained in the step S5 and corresponding rainfall conditions, and obtaining a series of simulation water level flow results of the hydrological station by using the simulation control established in the steps S6 and S7 to complete adaptation;
s9, in a simulation operation stage, making live hydrological data and live/forecast meteorological data required by a simulation model;
and S10, in the post-simulation processing stage, operating a data processing program, making a database, a live image and the like, and butting with other expansion platforms.
2. The method for forecasting basin water level and waterlogging based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation of claim 1, wherein: step S3, according to the research and the user requirement, the urban area encryption is started, and the process of encrypting the urban area grid is as follows:
step S31, identifying urban buildings, setting corresponding building heights, and encrypting grids between urban streets and building groups;
step S32, correcting the height of the corresponding building in the geographical elevation data, wherein the height of the building corresponds to the height of the mapped building, and if no actual mapping data exists, simplifying the height of the building;
and step S33, mapping the elevation data to the grid manufactured in the step S31.
3. The method for forecasting basin water level and waterlogging based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation of claim 1, wherein: step S4, according to the research and the user requirement, the rainfall runoff module is started, and the runoff CN value making process is as follows:
step S41, determining the soil type of the land through the regional soil type database, and converting the soil type into a soil type defined by the soil holding bureau of America according to the content of each component of the soil;
step S42, determining the CN value and the Manning coefficient of the land according to the land utilization rate of the area;
and step S43, mapping the elevation data to the grid manufactured in the step S31.
4. The method for forecasting basin water level and waterlogging based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation of claim 1, wherein: step S6, according to research and user requirements, starting a rainfall-runoff module, wherein the steps are as follows:
step S61, opening related options of a rainfall module in a watershed water level and waterlogging forecasting method of the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC based on weather forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
s62, selecting a rainfall condition forecast data source and making rainfall data;
step S63, selecting a space-time distribution type rainfall interface in a rainfall forecasting method rainfall module of the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation, and inputting rainfall data in the running stage of the TELEMAC based on the meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation.
5. The method for forecasting basin water level and waterlogging based on weather forecast and hydrodynamic simulation of claim 1, wherein: step S8, completing the simulation adaptation phase, wherein the steps are as follows:
step S81, establishing a flow sequence Q0 and a water level sequence H0 according to the historical flow and the water level of the hydrological station obtained in the step 5, accordingly, making an upper and lower limit sequence Q1 of the inlet area flow of the simulation model, setting a sliding sequence of the simulation inlet flow, and performing simulation to obtain a water level sequence H2 and a flow sequence Q2 at the coordinate position of the hydrological station in the simulation model;
step S82, obtaining an H0-F0 (Q0), an F0 fitting equation, an H2-F2 (Q2) and an F2 fitting equation according to the Q0 and H0 sequence and the Q2 and H2 sequence obtained in step S81, and the basin water level and waterlogging forecasting method Q ^ b + c (water level in H table and flow rate in Q table) based on meteorological forecasting and hydrodynamic simulation;
step S83, calculating the Q0 and H0 sequences, and the correlation and significance of the Q2 and H2 sequences;
and S83, obtaining conversion equations F of F0 and F2 according to the fitting equations of F0 and F2 obtained in the step S82 and the fitting equation of hydrologic station simulation, and further obtaining real data through calculation of the conversion equations F according to simulation data to complete adaptation of model simulation.
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| CN115455867A (en) * | 2022-10-31 | 2022-12-09 | 武汉大学 | Dam region flow state calculation method based on regression analysis |
| CN116384279A (en) * | 2023-04-07 | 2023-07-04 | 中南林业科技大学 | Flood evolution process simulation method |
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| CN117114428A (en) * | 2023-10-25 | 2023-11-24 | 国网山西省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Meteorological disaster analysis and early warning method for power equipment |
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