CN113469456A - River water amount prediction method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of hydraulic engineering, in particular to a river water amount prediction method which is mainly used for predicting river water amount. The invention carries out the prediction of water quantity based on a meteorological model, a hydrological model and a hydrodynamic model, and comprises the following steps: s1, constructing a meteorological model to calculate meteorological data of a river channel research area; s2, constructing a hydrological model, and calculating flow data of a river channel boundary according to the meteorological data; and S3, constructing a hydrodynamic model, and calculating river water volume data according to the flow data of the river channel boundary. According to the method, the flow data of the river channel boundary is determined through the coupling of the meteorological model and the hydrographic model, the hydrographic model provides the flow data of the river channel boundary for the hydrographic model through the coupling of the hydrographic model and the hydrodynamic model, and further provides the future flow data on the model boundary for predicting the future river channel water volume, so that the hydrodynamic model can predict the future water volume.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of hydraulic engineering, in particular to a river water amount prediction method which is mainly used for predicting river water amount.
Background
The accuracy of forecasting the water inflow at the upstream of the river channel can greatly improve the power generation dispatching scientificity of small hydropower stations, so that the utilization rate of the water energy is improved, the power generation benefit is improved, and the economic benefit is improved for hydropower station owners; meanwhile, the ecological flow can be scientifically planned, the ecological water drainage positivity is improved, the influence degree of small hydropower on the ecology is reduced, and the social significance is brought to the improvement of the downstream ecological environment. The hydrodynamic model is widely applied at present to simulate the historical conditions of the river water volume, but the future water volume prediction has certain limitation: mainly, the hydrodynamic model is used, the water flow condition of the model boundary needs to be input according to the model, and if the future river inflow needs to be predicted, the future water flow condition on the model boundary needs to be input, and the model cannot be obtained at present.
The patent with publication number CN110728423A discloses a comprehensive simulation method for a water system of a Yangtze river basin, which comprises the following steps: acquiring water ecological water environment data through a sensing terminal and transmitting the water ecological water environment data to a cloud server, wherein the water ecological water environment data are stored in different databases according to data types; analyzing and processing the water ecological water environment data, and establishing a sub-simulation model, wherein the sub-simulation model comprises a cascade reservoir group scheduling model, a watershed distributed hydrological model, an urban group water system model, a river channel ecological model and a lake ecological hydrological model; and operating the sub-simulation model and outputting a result to the main simulation model, wherein the main simulation model comprises a river channel one-dimensional water quality-hydrodynamic model. Based on the Internet of things, the Internet, mobile communication, WebGIS and cloud computing technology, acquiring ecological environment data of the Yangtze river basin, fusing the data, and constructing a simulation method; simulating the evolution of the ecology and the water environment of the Yangtze river running water and predicting the change of a water system of the Yangtze river basin in the future based on the measured data, the future climate change, the social and economic structure and the policy adjustment situation; evaluating the influence of reservoirs in Yangtze river basin, urban population development and the like on the ecological environment of Yangtze river main stream riverways and river-opening lakes. The collection process of the data in the patent is complex, the ecological environment complexity of different regions is different, and the collection of the corresponding region environment data is difficult to achieve. Moreover, due to the difference of different ecological environments, fusion of data in each region also needs to be performed in a targeted manner, which causes a problem of large workload in the early stage of simulation.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a river water amount prediction method which is mainly used for predicting river water amount.
In order to solve the above technical problem, the present application provides a river water volume prediction method, carries out the prediction of water volume based on meteorological model, hydrological model and hydrodynamic model, and its characterized in that includes: s1, constructing a meteorological model to calculate meteorological data of a river channel research area; s2, constructing a hydrological model, and calculating flow data of a river channel boundary according to the meteorological data; and S3, constructing a hydrodynamic model, and calculating river water volume data according to the flow data of the river channel boundary.
The flow data of the river channel boundary is determined through the coupling of the meteorological model and the hydrological model, and the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model are coupled, so that the hydrological model provides the flow data of the river channel boundary for the hydrodynamic model, and further provides the future flow data on the model boundary for predicting the future river channel water volume, and the hydrodynamic model can predict the future water volume. The hydrologic and hydrodynamic coupling models can be used for more finely simulating and forecasting, and a result with higher precision can be obtained.
Preferably, the meteorological model and the hydrological model adopt a one-way coupling mode to realize that the meteorological model provides meteorological data for the hydrological model.
Preferably, in step S1, the meteorological model uses a WRF mode.
Preferably, in step S2, the hydrological model adopts a SOBEK mode.
Preferably, in step S2, the constructing the hydrological model includes:
s21, dividing catchment nodes and corresponding catchment areas according to the surrounding topography of the water area and the land utilization type;
s22, setting hydrological parameters of corresponding catchment nodes according to the characteristics of each catchment area;
s23, setting the position information of each water catchment node into the water area.
Preferably, the hydrographic model and the hydrodynamic model adopt a unidirectional coupling mode to realize that the hydrographic model provides flow data to the hydrodynamic model.
Preferably, in step S3, the hydrodynamic model adopts a Delft3D mode.
Preferably, the step S3 includes:
taking the flow data of the river channel boundary of the hydrological model as the boundary condition of the hydrodynamic model;
taking the catchment node of the hydrological model as a release point of the hydrodynamic model;
and taking the production and confluence result of the hydrological model as the release flow of the hydrodynamic model.
Preferably, after step S3, the method further includes:
and S4, comparing and verifying the water level at the monitoring point, and further calibrating the model by adjusting the calculation parameters of the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model.
The invention has the following technical effects:
1. the unidirectional coupling modeling is simpler than the multiple coupling modeling and is easy to realize.
The WRF mode can stably provide meteorological data of any historical time and at most 15 days in the future, so that the meteorological data in the short term in the future can be conveniently obtained, and a basis is provided for the hydrodynamic model to predict the future rainfall.
3. The hydrological model is fitted by inputting different parameters in a SOBEK mode until the fitting reaches the required precision, the fitting degree of the process of rainfall runoff formation of a drainage basin is high, and the accuracy of follow-up hydrodynamic model prediction is improved conveniently.
4. By dividing the water collecting areas into a plurality of water collecting areas and setting different hydrological parameters aiming at the characteristics of different water collecting areas, adaptive calculation can be conveniently obtained according to different terrain environments, and more accurate prediction results can be conveniently obtained.
5. The hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model adopt a one-way coupling mode, and the hydrological model provides necessary hydrodynamic factors for the hydrodynamic model, mainly the future flow at the river channel boundary.
The Delft3D mode has a flexible frame, can simulate two-dimensional and three-dimensional water flow, waves, water quality, ecology, sediment transport and bed bottom landforms, and interaction among all processes, and can improve the prediction accuracy of the hydrodynamic model.
7. The future flow of the river channel boundary is realized by taking the flow data of the river channel boundary of the hydrological model as the boundary condition of the hydrodynamic model, and then the future water quantity of each position on the river channel is calculated, so that the purpose of prediction is achieved. Besides, the catchment node of the catchment area of the hydrographic model is set as the release point of the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the release flow is the calculation result of the flow convergence generated by the hydrographic model, and the parameter support is further provided for the calculation of the hydrodynamic model.
8. Furthermore, the calculation parameters of the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model are adjusted to calibrate the model, so that the meshing precision of the hydrodynamic model is improved conveniently, and the accuracy of high prediction is achieved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of different model coupling.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a hydrological model catchment area and a catchment node.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a sink junction.
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model.
Detailed Description
The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. Unless otherwise defined, all terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. It will be further understood that the conventional terms should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the relevant art and this disclosure. The present disclosure is to be considered as an example of the invention and is not intended to limit the invention to the particular embodiments.
The embodiment provides a river course water yield prediction method, carries out the prediction of water yield based on meteorological model, hydrological model and hydrodynamic model, its characterized in that includes:
s1, constructing a meteorological model to calculate meteorological data of a river channel research area;
s2, constructing a hydrological model, and calculating flow data of a river channel boundary through meteorological data;
and S3, constructing a hydrodynamic model, and calculating river water volume data according to the flow data of the river boundary.
In the embodiment, the hydrodynamic model is adopted to predict the river water amount, and the hydrodynamic model can well express the change and the migration process of the water flow in time and space. The main control equation of the hydrodynamic model is as follows:
the continuous equation:
in the formula: ζ is the water depth at the reference level; t is a time step; d is the water depth below the reference level;
Xi direction momentum equation:
equation of the momentum in the direction η:
in the formula: w is the velocity in the σ direction; fξAnd FηThe turbulence momentum flux in the xi and eta directions; mξAnd MηThe source and sink terms in xi and eta directions; rho 0 is the density of the water body; v isA vertical turbulence factor; f is the Coriolis coefficient; pξAnd PηThe water pressure gradient in the xi and eta directions.
The directions corresponding to xi, eta and sigma form right angles pairwise, wherein xi and eta are horizontal direction coordinates, and sigma is a vertical direction coordinate.
In the above equation, only the velocity u, v or the water level ζ or the flow Q (the flow Q may calculate u, v from the water depth) needs to be given at the river boundary, and the calculation may be performed by the finite difference method.
The final calculation result includes the velocities u, v and the water level ζ at any position on the river.
That is, for a certain river reach, given the flow velocity/flow/water level at the boundary of the river reach, the velocity and water level of any point on the river reach can be calculated through the hydrodynamic model, and the flow of the river course can be calculated.
In this embodiment, a meteorological model and a hydrological model are coupled to provide a boundary condition, that is, flow data Q of a river boundary, for the hydrodynamic model, so that the hydrodynamic model can predict future water volume. The hydrodynamic model is used for calculating the water quantity of the river channel and carrying out numerical simulation on the dynamic process of flowing water. The hydrodynamic model outputs future flow of the river channel boundary, the future flow of the river channel boundary is provided through the hydrological model, the hydrological model needs to provide necessary future meteorological data for the hydrodynamic model through the meteorological model, the future meteorological data are mainly rainfall and temperature, the meteorological model can easily acquire future meteorological conditions, and the implementation of the prediction of the hydrodynamic model is simple and easy to achieve.
In this embodiment, the meteorological model and the hydrological model adopt a unidirectional coupling mode, so that meteorological data is provided to the hydrological model by the meteorological model. Namely, the meteorological data calculated by the meteorological model is used as the condition for calculating the river channel flow by the hydrological model, so as to be coupled with the hydrodynamic model subsequently. In step S1, the meteorological model uses the WRF mode. The system is a new generation of mesoscale numerical weather forecasting system which is jointly designed and researched for business forecasting and atmospheric research by American military, scientific research institutions and various colleges. It can stably provide meteorological data of any historical time and at most 15 days in the future. The final output result of the WRF mode is future meteorological data of a grid point of a research area, the time resolution is 1 hour, and the meteorological data types comprise: temperature, air pressure, rainfall, etc. provide the calculation conditions for the prediction of the final hydrodynamic model to the future water yield of the river.
The hydrological model is used for describing the rainfall runoff forming process of the basin and strictly meets the water balance principle of the basin. In step S2, the hydrological model adopts the SOBEK mode. The SOBEK model was developed by the institute for hydrology, dell, the netherlands. The SOBEK is capable of managing rivers, cities, villages. SOBEK-river: the design of single or complex rivers and estuaries can be carried out, and the simulation water flow, the water quality, the river mouth with the changed river morphology and other types of erosion-deposition net-shaped (branched or annular) water channels consist of 5 units of water flow, water quality, sediment migration, shape science and salt erosion; SOBEK-country: the system is specially applied to regional water area management tools and is widely applied to crop economic irrigation quota determination, automatic control of ditches, reservoir operation and water quality control; SOBEK-City: the system can provide effective measures for solving the problems of drainage blockage, street overflow, overflow drainage of a drainage pipeline and the like, and comprises 3 units of water flow, rainfall runoff and time control. The SOBEK-river, SOBEK-country, SOBEK-city are all composed of modules simulating specific aspects of the water system, which can be managed independently or synthetically, with data being transferred automatically (in sequence) or simultaneously between modules to facilitate interactions between substances. The final output result of the SOBEK mode is the future flow at the river course boundary. The main calculation equation used is the SCS runoff model, which is a common form:
wherein: q1 is river flow; p is rainfall; s is the soil infiltration, usually obtained by consulting literature parameters.
That is, the hydrological model inputs rainfall (i.e. meteorological data output by the meteorological model), and finally the flow Q1 of the river channel can be obtained, that is, the boundary flow Q of the river channel can be obtained, and then the hydrodynamic model is provided with the input of the boundary river channel flow data Q.
In this embodiment, as shown in fig. 2 and 3, taking the economic bridge reservoir model as an example, in step S2, constructing the hydrological model includes:
s21, dividing catchment nodes and corresponding catchment areas according to the surrounding topography of the water area and the land utilization type;
s22, setting hydrological parameters of corresponding catchment nodes according to the characteristics of each catchment area;
s23, setting the position information of each water catchment node into the water area.
In step S22, the hydrological parameters include land utilization (city, farmland, forest, etc.), regional hydrological conditions (drought, moderate humidity, humidity), soil types (mountain brown soil, calcareous brown soil, common brown soil, etc.);
in step S23, the closest point to the catchment point in the water area range is found out according to the longitude and latitude of the catchment node and the water area longitude and latitude range, and the longitude and latitude of the point is the position information of the catchment node catched into the water area.
As shown in fig. 2, the economic bridge reservoir model divides 7 catchment nodes in total, finds out the closest point to the catchment point in the water area range according to the longitude and latitude of the catchment node and the longitude and latitude range of the water area, the longitude and latitude of the point is the position information point of the catchment node to be converged into the water area, and divides 7 catchment areas corresponding to the 7 catchment nodes. As shown in fig. 3, the five-pointed star shape is the position of the corresponding water gathering area arranged corresponding to the 7 water gathering nodes.
In this embodiment, in step S3, the hydrodynamic model adopts the Delft3D mode. The mode is a set of powerful software package, and is mainly applied to free surface water environment. The software has a flexible framework and can simulate two-dimensional and three-dimensional water flow, waves, water quality, ecology, sediment transport and bed bottom landforms and interaction among all processes. The Delft3D model is one of the most advanced hydrodynamic-water quality models in the world at present, the reliability of a prediction result is high, and the final output result of the Delft3D model is the future flow of each point of the river channel. The hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model adopt a one-way coupling mode to realize that the hydrological model provides flow data for the hydrodynamic model. The SOBEK hydrological model provides the Delft3D model with the necessary hydrodynamic elements, mainly the future flow at the river boundary.
As shown in fig. 4, step S3 includes:
taking flow data Q of a river channel boundary of the hydrological model as a boundary condition of the hydrodynamic model;
taking a catchment node of the hydrological model as a release point of the hydrodynamic model;
and taking the production and confluence result of the hydrological model as the release flow of the hydrodynamic model.
And then obtaining the water volume of each point of the river channel, realizing the prediction of the water volume of each place of the river channel, if the meteorological model predicts future data, the final output data of the hydrodynamic model is the future water volume of the river channel, if the meteorological model predicts historical data, the final output data of the hydrodynamic model is the historical water volume of the river channel, and realizing the simulation of the historical or future water volume of the river channel.
Step S3 is followed by:
and S4, comparing and verifying the water level at the monitoring point, and further calibrating the model by adjusting the calculation parameters of the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model. By continuously calibrating the hydrodynamic model, the accuracy of the hydrodynamic model prediction is improved, and a more accurate water quantity prediction result is obtained. By integrating the meteorological model, the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model, the accuracy of the water inflow quantity at the upstream of the river channel is improved, and the power generation scheduling scientificity of small hydropower stations is further improved, so that the water conservancy utilization rate is improved, the power generation benefit is improved, and the economic benefit is improved for hydropower station owners; meanwhile, the ecological flow can be scientifically planned, the ecological water drainage positivity is improved, the influence degree of small hydropower on the ecology is reduced, and the social significance is brought to the improvement of the downstream ecological environment.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been described, various changes or modifications may be made by one of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (9)
1. A river course water yield prediction method is used for predicting water yield based on a meteorological model, a hydrological model and a hydrodynamic model, and is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, constructing a meteorological model to calculate meteorological data of a river channel research area;
s2, constructing a hydrological model, and calculating flow data of a river channel boundary according to the meteorological data;
and S3, constructing a hydrodynamic model, and calculating river water volume data according to the flow data of the river channel boundary.
2. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 1, wherein:
the meteorological model and the hydrological model adopt a one-way coupling mode to realize that the meteorological model provides meteorological data for the hydrological model.
3. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 2, wherein:
in step S1, the meteorological model adopts a WRF mode.
4. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 2, wherein:
in step S2, the hydrological model adopts a SOBEK mode.
5. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 1 or 4, wherein:
in step S2, the constructing the hydrological model includes:
s21, dividing catchment nodes and corresponding catchment areas according to the surrounding topography of the water area and the land utilization type;
s22, setting hydrological parameters of corresponding catchment nodes according to the characteristics of each catchment area;
s23, setting the position information of each water catchment node into the water area.
6. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 1, wherein:
the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model adopt a one-way coupling mode to realize that the hydrological model provides flow data for the hydrodynamic model.
7. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 6, wherein:
in step S3, the hydrodynamic model adopts a Delft3D mode.
8. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 5, wherein:
the step S3 includes:
taking the flow data of the river channel boundary of the hydrological model as the boundary condition of the hydrodynamic model;
taking the catchment node of the hydrological model as a release point of the hydrodynamic model;
and taking the production and confluence result of the hydrological model as the release flow of the hydrodynamic model.
9. The method for predicting river water volume according to claim 1, wherein:
the step S3 is followed by:
and S4, comparing and verifying the water level at the monitoring point, and further calibrating the model by adjusting the calculation parameters of the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model.
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| CN115061223B (en) * | 2022-07-14 | 2023-09-29 | 郑州航空工业管理学院 | Intelligent forecasting system for west boundary flow |
| CN117541452A (en) * | 2024-01-09 | 2024-02-09 | 河北锐驰交通工程咨询有限公司 | Intelligent data analysis system and method applied to road stable drainage |
| CN117541452B (en) * | 2024-01-09 | 2024-03-15 | 河北锐驰交通工程咨询有限公司 | Intelligent data analysis system and method applied to road stable drainage |
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