JP2018182903A - Failure rate calculation device and failure rate calculation method - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To achieve determination of a failure rate including actual conditions of electric power system equipment.SOLUTION: The failure rate calculation device includes an acquisition part; an actual elapsed year number calculation part; and a failure rate calculation part. The acquisition part acquires data showing the deterioration degree of equipment of a power system within a predetermined section. The actual elapsed year number calculation part calculates an actual elapsed year number which is an effective elapsed year number of the equipment corresponding to the deterioration degree shown by the acquired data, on the basis of the degradation degree of the equipment within the predetermined section and an elapsed year number after establishment of the equipment within the predetermined section. The failure rate calculation part calculates a failure rate of the equipment corresponding to the actual elapsed year calculated by the actual elapsed year number calculation part.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  Embodiments of the present invention relate to a failure rate calculation device and a failure rate calculation method.

  When updating a power system facility, power supply reliability (SAIFI: System Average Interruption Frequency Index, for example, per unit time) in a section where the power system facility is installed before, after, and during the update of the power system facility It is necessary to calculate the incidence rate of Although calculation of the supply reliability requires a failure rate of the power system equipment, a fixed value corresponding to the number of years since the installation of the power system equipment is used as the failure rate.

Patent No. 4550632 gazette Patent No. 4977064 Patent No. 5882849 Patent No. 5720804

  However, although the failure rate may use a value changed based on attribute information such as the number of years since the installation of the power system equipment, the power due to the degree of deterioration caused by the installation environment and use conditions of the power system equipment It may not be a value corresponding to the variation of each system installation, and it may not be a failure rate reflecting the actual condition.

  The failure rate calculation device according to the embodiment includes an acquisition unit, an effective number-of-years calculation unit, and a failure rate calculation unit. An acquisition part acquires the data which show the degradation degree of the installation of the electric power grid in a predetermined area. Based on the degree of deterioration of the equipment in the predetermined section and the number of years since the equipment has been installed in the predetermined section, the effective number of years calculation unit effectively indicates the degree of deterioration indicated by the acquired data. Calculate the ability age which is the age. The failure rate calculation unit calculates the failure rate of the equipment according to the available power age calculated by the available power age calculation unit.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an example of a flow of supply reliability calculation processing by the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of processing of creating a conversion table by the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an example of a process of calculating the effective age number by the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment. FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of the failure rate calculation system according to the second embodiment.

  Hereinafter, the failure rate calculation device and the failure rate calculation method according to the present embodiment will be described using the attached drawings.

First Embodiment
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the failure rate calculation device 1 according to the present embodiment includes a data acquisition unit 101, a field database 102, a table calculation unit 103, a model formula generation unit 104, and an effective age calculation unit 105. , A failure rate calculation unit 106, a supply reliability calculation unit 107, and a data output unit 108.

  The field database 102 indicates the degree of deterioration of power system equipment (hereinafter referred to as power system equipment, for example, cables, transformers, circuit breakers) in a predetermined section, and after the power system equipment is installed in the predetermined section. And the age of the (hereinafter referred to as the true age) and. Here, the predetermined section is a section set in advance among sections of the power system from the power plant to the consumer. In the present embodiment, the predetermined section is a section for calculating supply reliability (SAIFI: System Average Interruption Frequency Index, for example, occurrence rate of power failure per unit time) among sections of the power system from the power plant to the consumer. It is.

  The degree of deterioration is a value indicating the degree of deterioration of the power system installation, and is, for example, the temperature, vibration or noise of the cable, the insulation resistance value of the transformer, or the number of interruptions of the circuit breaker. Further, the true number of years is the number of years actually elapsed since the installation of the power system in the predetermined section.

  The table calculation unit 103 calculates a table (hereinafter referred to as a conversion table) that associates the degree of deterioration of the power system equipment with the number of years of ability based on the degree of deterioration and the true number of years stored in the field database 102. Do. Here, the effective number of years is the effective number of years of the electric power system corresponding to the degree of deterioration of the electric power system. In the present embodiment, the effective number of years is an average number of years of the electric power system corresponding to the degree of deterioration of the electric power system. In the present embodiment, the table calculation unit 103 calculates a conversion table for each type of degradation degree of the power system equipment.

  The data acquisition unit 101 acquires data (hereinafter, referred to as deterioration degree data) indicating the deterioration degree of the power system facility in the predetermined section. For example, the data acquisition unit 101 acquires data with the temperature, vibration and noise of the cable, the insulation resistance value of the transformer, the number of times of interruption of the circuit breaker, and the like as the degree of deterioration. In the present embodiment, the data acquisition unit 101 acquires deterioration degree data indicating a plurality of types of deterioration degree of the power system equipment. Further, in the present embodiment, the data acquisition unit 101 acquires degradation degree data every preset unit time.

  Based on the degree of deterioration of the power system equipment in the predetermined section and the true number of years of the power system equipment stored in the field database 102, the performance age number calculation unit 105 acquires the deterioration acquired by the data acquisition unit 101. Calculate the number of years of power system equipment that corresponds to the degree of deterioration indicated by the degree data. In the present embodiment, in the conversion table calculated by the table calculation unit 103, the power age number calculation unit 105 converts the power age number associated with the degree of deterioration indicated by the deterioration degree data acquired by the data acquisition unit 101 Calculated as the number of years of system facilities.

  In the present embodiment, when the acquired deterioration degree data indicates a plurality of types of deterioration degrees, the ability age-number calculation unit 105 calculates a plurality of ability aging numbers for each of the plurality of types of deterioration degrees, Among the numbers, let the longest power age be the power age of the power system equipment. In the present embodiment, when the acquired deterioration degree data indicates a plurality of types of deterioration degrees, each of the available years of age calculation unit 105 indicates each of the deterioration degrees indicated by the deterioration degree data in the conversion table calculated by the table calculation unit 103. In the conversion table corresponding to the type, the number of effective years associated with the degree of deterioration of each type is specified. Then, the available power age calculation unit 105 calculates the longest available power age among the available power ages calculated for each type of degree of deterioration as the available power age of the power system facility.

  The model formula creation unit 104 creates a model formula indicating the relationship between the failure rate of the power system facility and the age of the power system facility using the degree of deterioration and the true age stored in the field database 102. In the present embodiment, the model formula creation unit 104 creates a model formula for each type of power system equipment. Specifically, the model formula creation unit 104 identifies the cause of the failure for each type of power system equipment based on the performance of each type of power system equipment stored in the field database 102 and the result of the failure. Perform an analysis. Next, the model formula creation unit 104 creates a model formula representing the relationship between the failure rate of the power system and the effective number of years by statistical analysis such as the Weibull distribution based on the cause of the failure of the power system.

For example, the model formula creation unit 104 creates a model formula shown in the following formula (1) by Weibull distribution. In equation (1), λ is the failure rate of the power system installation, t is the power age, m is the shape parameter, and η is the scale parameter.

  The failure rate calculator 106 calculates the failure rate of the power system according to the power age of the power system calculated by the power age calculator 105. As a result, the failure rate according to the age of the power system can be calculated according to the variation in the degree of deterioration of the power system due to the installation environment and use conditions of the power system, so the failure reflecting the actual condition of the power system You can determine the rate. In the present embodiment, the failure rate calculation unit 106 uses the model formula created by the model formula creation unit 104 to calculate the power system facility according to the age of the power system facility calculated by the available power age facility calculation unit 105. Calculate the failure rate. Further, in the present embodiment, the failure rate calculation unit 106 calculates the failure rate of the power system equipment for each unit time set in advance.

The supply reliability calculation unit 107 calculates the supply reliability of the power system of the predetermined section based on the failure rate calculated by the failure rate calculation unit 106. In the present embodiment, the supply reliability calculation unit 107 calculates the supply reliability per unit time based on the failure rate calculated by the failure rate calculation unit 106. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, the supply reliability calculation unit 107 calculates the supply reliability using the following equation (2). In equation (2), λ is the failure rate per unit time, n is the number of customers whose power outages occur in a given section due to a failure of power system equipment, and n _all is the total number of customers in the given section It is. The data output unit 108 outputs the supply reliability calculated by the supply reliability calculation unit 107 to an external device.

  In the present embodiment, although the example of calculating the supply reliability based on the failure rate calculated by the failure rate calculation unit 106 has been described, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the failure rate calculation unit 106 calculates Based on the failure rate, a plan for updating the power system facility may be made, such as how many spare power system facilities (eg, transformers) should be prepared.

  Next, an example of the flow of the calculation process of the supply reliability by the failure rate calculation device 1 according to the present embodiment will be described using FIG. 2. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an example of a flow of supply reliability calculation processing by the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment.

  In the present embodiment, the data acquisition unit 101 executes the deterioration diagnosis process for acquiring deterioration degree data indicating the deterioration degree of the power system (hereinafter referred to as target installation) in the predetermined section (step S201). For example, when the deterioration acquiring process of the cable which is an example of the target equipment is performed, the data acquiring unit 101 acquires the temperature rise, vibration, noise, and insulation resistance of the cable as the deterioration degree data indicating the deterioration degree of the cable. Do. Moreover, the data acquisition part 101 acquires the insulation resistance value of a transformer as degradation degree data which show the degradation degree of the said transformer, when performing degradation diagnostic processing of the transformer which is an example of object installation. Moreover, the data acquisition part 101 acquires the frequency | count of interruption | blocking of a circuit breaker as deterioration degree data which show the deterioration degree of the said circuit breaker, when performing the deterioration diagnostic process of the circuit breaker which is an example of object installation.

  Next, the table calculation unit 103 is a conversion table that associates the degree of deterioration of the power system facility with the age of the power system facility for each type of power system facility based on the degree of degradation and the true age stored in the field database 102. Is calculated (step S202). In the present embodiment, the table calculation unit 103 sets the average number of years of the electric power system corresponding to the degree of deterioration of the electric power system as the effective number of years.

  Next, in the conversion table of the target equipment among the tables calculated for each type of power system equipment by the table calculation unit 103, the effective age number calculation unit 105 corresponds to the degree of deterioration indicated by the deterioration degree data of the target equipment. The capability aged number to be attached is calculated as the capability aged number of the target equipment (step S203). Then, the failure rate calculation unit 106 calculates the target facility calculated with respect to the model equation of the target facility among the model equations (for example, equation (1)) created for each type of power system facility by the model equation creation unit 104. The failure rate of the target equipment is calculated by substituting the number of years elapsed for (step S204). Furthermore, the supply reliability calculation unit 107 calculates the supply reliability of the power system of the predetermined section based on the failure rate of the target equipment (step S205).

  Next, an example of processing of creating a conversion table by the failure rate calculation device 1 according to the present embodiment will be described using FIG. 3. FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of processing of creating a conversion table by the failure rate calculation device according to the first embodiment. In FIG. 3, the vertical axis represents the degree of deterioration of the power system installation, and the horizontal axis represents the age of the power system installation.

  As described above, in the failure rate calculation device 1 according to the present embodiment, the available power age calculation unit 105 takes into consideration the variation in the degree of deterioration due to external factors (for example, installation environment and use conditions) for the power system facility. Calculate the ability age. Therefore, it is necessary for the failure rate calculation device 1 to create in advance a conversion table that correlates the degree of deterioration of the power system equipment with the actual number of aged by the table calculation unit 103. The conversion table is different for each type of power system equipment (e.g., a cable having a different diameter or a different electrode diameter).

  Therefore, as shown in FIG. 3, the field database 102 accumulates the degree of deterioration of the power grid equipment with different numbers of aging for each type of power grid equipment. Then, the table calculation unit 103 uses the degree of deterioration of the power system equipment with different numbers of aging (shown by the circle in FIG. 3) stored in the field database 102, and determines the power system equipment for each degree of deterioration of the power system equipment. The average age of is statistically calculated as the ability age. Next, the table calculation unit 103 creates a conversion table (indicated by a solid line in FIG. 3) that associates the number of years of power system equipment (the number of years of ability) with the degree of deterioration of the power system equipment of the number of years of ability. .

  Next, with reference to FIG. 4, an example of processing for calculating the effective number of years by the failure rate calculation device 1 according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an example of a process of calculating the effective age number by the failure rate degree calculating device according to the first embodiment. In FIG. 4, the vertical axis represents the degree of deterioration of the power system facility, and the horizontal axis represents the age of the power system facility. Further, in FIG. 4, the line indicated by reference numeral T1 is the true number of aged power system facilities installed in a hostile environment (for example, power system facilities that are frequently used and overused) and the power system facility Represents the relationship between the degree of deterioration of Moreover, in FIG. 4, the line shown by code | symbol T2 represents the relationship between the effective number of years of power system installation, and the degradation degree of the said power system installation. Further, in FIG. 4, the line indicated by the code T3 is the true number of aged power system facilities installed in a good environment and slow deterioration (for example, power system facilities with low frequency of use) and the degree of degradation of the power system facilities Represents the relationship of

  As shown in FIG. 4, even when the degree of deterioration of the power system is the same, the true age number of the power system varies depending on the installation environment and use conditions of the power system. For example, a power system installed in a hostile environment has a true age of 25 years even if the degree of degradation is 1400 (refer to the relationship between the true age and the degree of degradation indicated by a symbol T1). . On the other hand, the power grid equipment installed in a good environment has a true age of 47 years when the degree of degradation is 1400 (the relationship between the true age and the degree of degradation shown by symbol T3 reference).

  Therefore, in the present embodiment, the actual age number calculation unit 105 is a conversion table in which the actual age number of the power system equipment is associated with the average degree of deterioration of the power system Using the relationship of the degree of deterioration), the number of years of ability corresponding to the degree of deterioration indicated by the acquired degree of deterioration data is calculated as the number of years of ability of the power system facility. For example, if the degree of deterioration indicated by the acquired degree of deterioration data is 1,400, the available age number calculating unit 105 calculates 37 years as the available age number. Further, if the degree of deterioration indicated by the acquired degree of deterioration data is 1000, the available age number calculation unit 105 calculates 31 years as the available age number.

  As described above, according to the failure rate calculation device 1 according to the first embodiment, the effective number of years of the power system facility corresponding to the variation of the power system facility due to the degree of deterioration caused by the installation environment or use condition of the power system facility Since it is possible to calculate the failure rate according to the situation, it is possible to obtain the failure rate reflecting the actual condition of the power system equipment.

Second Embodiment
The present embodiment is an example of a failure rate calculation system in which calculation of a failure rate of power system equipment and calculation of supply reliability of power system equipment in a predetermined section are performed by different devices. In the following description, the description of the same configuration as that of the first embodiment is omitted.

  FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of the failure rate calculation system according to the second embodiment. As shown in FIG. 5, the failure rate calculation system according to the present embodiment includes a failure rate calculation device 501 and a supply reliability calculation device 502. Then, the failure rate calculation device 501 includes a data acquisition unit 101, a field database 102, a table calculation unit 103, a model formula calculation unit 104, an effective age calculation unit 105, and a failure rate calculation unit 106. . Further, the supply reliability calculation device 502 includes a supply reliability calculation unit 107 and a data output unit 108. That is, in the failure rate calculation system according to the present embodiment, the calculation of the failure rate of the power system facility and the calculation of the supply reliability of the power system facility in the predetermined section are separately performed on the different devices (the failure rate calculating device 501 and the supply It is executed by the reliability calculation device 502).

  Then, according to the failure rate calculation system according to the second embodiment, the calculation of the failure rate of the power system facility and the calculation of the supply reliability of the power system facility in the predetermined section are performed by different devices. However, as in the first embodiment, since it is possible to calculate the failure rate according to the age of the power system equipment corresponding to the variation of the power system equipment due to the degree of deterioration caused by the installation environment and use conditions of the power system equipment It is possible to obtain a failure rate that reflects the actual conditions of the grid facilities.

  As described above, according to the first and second embodiments, it is possible to obtain a failure rate reflecting the actual state of the power system equipment.

  The programs executed by the failure rate calculation device 1, 501 and the supply reliability calculation device 502 according to the present embodiment are provided by being incorporated in advance in a ROM (Read Only Memory) or the like. Programs executed by the failure rate calculation device 1, 501 and the supply reliability calculation device 502 according to the present embodiment are files in an installable format or an executable format, such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk (FD), and a CD-R. It may be configured to be recorded and provided in a computer readable recording medium such as a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk).

  Furthermore, the programs executed by the failure rate calculation device 1, 501 and the supply reliability calculation device 502 of the present embodiment are stored on a computer connected to a network such as the Internet and provided by downloading via the network. It may be configured as follows. Further, the programs executed by the failure rate calculation device 1, 501 and the supply reliability calculation device 502 of this embodiment may be provided or distributed via a network such as the Internet.

  The programs executed by the failure rate calculation device 1, 501 and the supply reliability calculation device 502 according to the present embodiment are the respective units described above (the data acquisition unit 101, the table calculation unit 103, the model formula calculation unit 104, the effective number of years calculation unit 105), a failure rate calculation unit 106, a supply reliability calculation unit 107, and a data output unit 108), and as an actual hardware, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) reads a program from the ROM. The above units are loaded on the main storage device by executing the data acquisition unit 101, the table calculation unit 103, the model formula calculation unit 104, the capability age calculation unit 105, the failure rate calculation unit 106, and the supply reliability calculation unit 107. And a data output unit 108 are generated on the main storage device.

  While certain embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments have been presented by way of example only, and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the invention. These embodiments and modifications thereof are included in the scope and the gist of the invention, and are included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalent scope thereof.

101 data acquisition unit 102 field database 103 table calculation unit 104 model formula creation unit 105 ability age calculation unit 106 failure rate calculation unit 107 supply reliability calculation unit 108 data output unit

Claims (8)

An acquisition unit configured to acquire data indicating a degree of deterioration of an installation of a power system in a predetermined section;
The effective number of years of the equipment corresponding to the degree of deterioration indicated by the acquired data, based on the degree of deterioration of the equipment in the predetermined section and the number of years since the equipment was installed in the predetermined section Ability age calculation part which calculates the ability age which is
A failure rate calculation unit that calculates a failure rate of the equipment according to the real power age calculated by the real power age calculation unit;
Failure rate calculation device comprising: The apparatus further comprises a table calculation unit that calculates a table that associates the degree of deterioration of the facility in the predetermined section with the actual number of aged of the facility corresponding to the degree of deterioration;
The effective ability number calculation unit calculates the effective ability number associated with the degree of deterioration of the equipment indicated by the acquired data in the table as the effective ability number of the equipment. Failure rate calculation device.   The failure rate calculation device according to claim 1, further comprising: a supply reliability calculation unit configured to calculate supply reliability of the power system of the predetermined section based on the failure rate. The acquisition unit acquires the data indicating a plurality of types of deterioration degrees of the facility,
The capability aged number calculating unit calculates the capability aged number for each of a plurality of types of deterioration degrees indicated by the data, and the longest capability aged number among the calculated capability aged numbers is calculated for the equipment. The failure rate calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the effective number of years is used.   The failure rate calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the effective number of years is an average number of years of the equipment corresponding to the degree of deterioration of the equipment.   The failure rate calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the failure rate calculation unit calculates the failure rate for each preset unit time.   The failure rate calculation device according to claim 2, wherein the supply reliability calculation unit calculates the supply reliability per unit time based on the failure rate. To obtain data indicating the degree of deterioration of the facilities of the power system in a predetermined section,
The effective number of years of the equipment corresponding to the degree of deterioration indicated by the acquired data, based on the degree of deterioration of the equipment in the predetermined section and the number of years since the equipment was installed in the predetermined section Calculate the number of years of ability to be
Calculate the failure rate of the equipment according to the calculated performance age number,
Failure rate calculation method including that.

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