WO2020008490A1

WO2020008490A1 - Electric power equipment planning assistance system

Info

Publication number: WO2020008490A1
Application number: PCT/JP2018/024999
Authority: WO
Inventors: 照久松井; 鳥羽　廣次; 駿介河内; 俊明浅野
Original assignee: 株式会社東芝; 東芝エネルギーシステムズ株式会社
Priority date: 2018-07-02
Filing date: 2018-07-02
Publication date: 2020-01-09

Abstract

An electric power equipment planning assistance system according to the present invention is provided with an electric power equipment information acquisition unit, a maintenance history information acquisition unit, a tidal current calculation unit, a system information acquisition unit, an equipment-state estimation unit, and a system-state change unit. The electric power equipment information acquisition unit acquires information about specifications of electric power equipment. The maintenance history information acquisition unit acquires maintenance information about the electric power equipment. The tidal current calculation unit calculates tidal current information about an electric power system. The system information acquisition unit acquires measurement information indicative of a state of the electric power system. The equipment-state estimation unit estimates a deterioration state of the electric power equipment on the basis of the specification information, maintenance information, tidal current information, and measurement information. The system-state change unit changes, on the basis of an estimation result provided by the equipment-state estimation unit, the state of configuration of the electric power system such that a result different from said estimation result can be expected. In addition, the equipment-state estimation unit estimates a deterioration state of the electric power equipment in the electric power system every time the state of configuration is changed by the system-state change unit.

Description

Power equipment planning support system

The embodiment of the present invention relates to an electric power facility planning support system.

(4) The aging of the installed power equipment has been progressing in response to the increase in the past energy demand, and it is necessary to update the power equipment. On the other hand, there is data that energy demand is expected to decrease in the future compared to the past, and updating power equipment that requires large-scale investment may place a heavy burden on the management of power utilities . For this reason, an asset management technique for electric power equipment that performs planning such as decentralization of equipment renewal time in accordance with the state of each electric power equipment has attracted attention. In this case, in planning an update plan of the power equipment, information on the probability of failure of each power equipment is important. For example, Patent Literature 1 discloses a system that calculates a probability of a transition from a current state to another state using measurement information of a power system and peripheral information related to the power system, and determines a next state to be transitioned. Is disclosed.

JP-A-2017-216575

However, in the case of the system of Patent Document 1, although the accuracy of the state transition probability is improved by considering external factors, an appropriate probability relationship cannot be defined for an event that occurs infrequently. Is presented to the operator, and information is input as appropriate. Since the life of a power facility or the probability of failure depends on the climate of the place where the facility is installed and the history of load conditions at the point of use, the average of the lives of multiple failed devices does not always match the actual life of the device do not do. Therefore, if an accident due to deterioration of the power equipment occurs or if the operator does not have sufficient knowledge, information input to the system may be inaccurate, and the judgment result of the system and the transition of the actual state Inconsistency sometimes occurred. Further, since such an inconsistency is taken into consideration, when drafting an update plan, it is common practice to draft a plan with some allowance for variation in the life. For this reason, an update plan with a short usage period of the power equipment may be created.

The present invention has been made in view of the above, and in planning an update plan of power equipment, a power equipment planning support capable of more accurately estimating the life or failure probability of each power equipment. One of the purposes is to provide a system.

The power equipment planning support system according to the embodiment includes a power equipment information acquisition unit, a maintenance history information acquisition unit, a power flow calculation unit, a system information acquisition unit, an equipment state estimation unit, and a system state change unit. The power equipment information obtaining unit obtains specification information of the power equipment to be processed. The maintenance history information obtaining unit obtains maintenance information of the power equipment. The power flow calculation unit calculates power flow information of a power system including power equipment. The system information acquisition unit acquires measurement information indicating a state of the power system measured at a preset position when the power system operates. The equipment state estimation unit estimates the deterioration state of the power equipment based on the specification information, the maintenance information, the power flow information, and the measurement information. The system state change unit changes the configuration state of the power system based on the estimation result estimated by the equipment state estimation unit so that a result different from the estimation result can be expected. Then, each time the configuration state is changed by the system state changing unit, the equipment state estimation unit estimates the deterioration state of the power equipment in the power system.

FIG. 1 is an exemplary and schematic configuration diagram of a power equipment planning support system according to an embodiment. FIG. 2 is an exemplary and schematic configuration diagram illustrating details of an equipment state estimation unit in the power equipment planning support system according to the embodiment. FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating an example of an equipment state estimation process of the power equipment planning support system according to the embodiment.

Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings. A configuration of the embodiment described below, and an operation and a result (effect) provided by the configuration are merely examples, and are not limited to the following description.

The power facility planning support system according to the embodiment estimates a deterioration state (for example, failure probability) of each power facility in a power system including a plurality of power facilities. The power equipment includes, for example, a transformer, a switchgear, a power cable, a transmission line, and the like. The power facility planning support system changes the connection state of each power facility in the power system or changes the installation location (placement position) of each power facility in the power system to provide a failure probability of the power facility (facility life). ) To obtain information about the magnitude of the influence of the factors that influence).

For example, by changing the connection state of the power equipment and changing the load (for example, current value and voltage value) applied to the power equipment in various ways and comparing the failure probabilities (equipment life), the power according to the connection state (load state) is obtained. Information on the influence on the failure probability (equipment life) of the equipment can be obtained. Also, for example, by comparing the failure probability (equipment life) of a power facility installed in a high temperature place with a power facility of the same type installed in a low temperature place, the failure of the power facility due to the environment of the installation location Information on the influence on the probability (equipment life) can be obtained. Similarly, by comparing the case of installation in a place with high humidity and the place with low humidity, and comparing the case of installation in a snowfall area and a non-snowfall area, etc., the probability of failure of the power equipment due to the environment of the installation place (equipment life) Impact information can be obtained. In addition, by comparing the probability of failure (equipment life) when installed in a place where salt damage is likely to occur (coastal area) and a place where the influence of salt damage is small (for example, in a mountainous area), it depends on the installation place (installation environment). It is possible to acquire information on the influence on the failure probability (equipment life) of the power equipment. Information on the influence on the failure probability (equipment life) depending on how the electric power equipment is used, which is acquired by the electric power equipment planning support system, can be used for drafting an update plan of the electric power equipment.

FIG. 1 is an exemplary and schematic block diagram showing functions of the power equipment planning support system 100 according to the embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the power equipment planning support system 100 includes a power equipment information acquisition unit 10, a maintenance history information acquisition unit 12, a power flow calculation unit 14, a system information acquisition unit 16, an equipment state estimation unit 18, a system state change. It has a part 20 and the like.

Some or all of the functional modules such as the power equipment information acquiring unit 10, the maintenance history information acquiring unit 12, the power flow calculating unit 14, the system information acquiring unit 16, the facility state estimating unit 18, and the system state changing unit 20 are hardware and software. It is realized by cooperation with. More specifically, each functional module is realized by the processor of the power equipment planning support system (apparatus) 100 reading and executing a program stored in a memory such as a storage unit. In another embodiment, some or all of these functional modules may be realized by dedicated hardware (circuit).

The power equipment information acquisition unit 10 acquires at least power equipment specification information A including at least the type of power equipment such as a transformer and a power cable used in the power grid, the rated capacity, and the number of years used in the power grid. I do. As the specification information A, for example, information held in advance by a power company or the like can be used, and a storage device included in the power equipment planning support system 100, for example, an HDD (hard disk drive) or a flash device can be used in advance. It may be stored, or may be acquired from a database different from the power equipment planning support system 100. Further, the information acquired by the electric power equipment information acquisition unit 10 may include information on the position where the electric power equipment is installed.

The maintenance history information acquisition unit 12 acquires maintenance information B of the power equipment included in the power system. The maintenance information B is information indicating, for example, the date and time when repair or inspection was performed for each power facility. Further, the maintenance information B may include details of the maintenance and data measured during the maintenance of each electric power facility. The maintenance information B may be stored in advance in a storage device included in the power equipment planning support system 100, for example, an HDD or a flash device, or may be acquired from a database different from the power equipment planning support system 100. Good.

The power flow calculator 14 calculates (obtains) power flow information C indicating how much load is applied to the power equipment based on the power equipment specification information A obtained by the power equipment information obtaining unit 10 and the connection state of the power equipment. ). The power flow information C is calculated, for example, as a current value flowing through the power equipment or a voltage value at each location.

The system information acquisition unit 16 acquires measurement information D indicating a state of the power system measured at a preset position when the power system operates. The system information acquisition unit 16 acquires measurement information such as a voltage value, a current value, and a frequency from a sensor installed in the power system, for example. The system information obtaining unit 16 may obtain the measurement information D directly from a wired sensor, or may obtain the measurement information D via a communication medium such as an optical line or wireless communication. Further, the measurement information D may include environmental information such as temperature and humidity of the place where the power equipment is installed, in addition to electrical information such as voltage, current, and frequency of the power system. Note that, as a sensor for acquiring the measurement information D, a measurement device provided in advance in power equipment, such as a switchgear with a sensor, may be used. Further, a measuring device provided afterward to monitor the state of the power equipment may be used. Further, in another embodiment, the measurement information D may be obtained (estimated) using the propagation characteristics (propagation loss characteristics) of the signal of the communication frequency used for the power line carrier communication.

The equipment state estimating unit 18 estimates the deterioration state of the power equipment based on the specification information A, the maintenance information B, the power flow information C, and the measurement information D. Details of the equipment state estimation unit 18 will be described later.

The system state change unit 20 changes the configuration state of the power system based on the estimation result estimated by the equipment state estimation unit 18 so that a result different from the estimation result can be expected. The system state change unit 20 refers to the deterioration state of the power equipment estimated by the equipment state estimation unit 18 and changes the power system state (load and environment for the power equipment) to change the power equipment failure probability (equipment life). We propose a power system that changes the magnitude of the influence of the influencing factors (influencing factors). The system state changing unit 20 outputs a control command E for automatically changing the connection state and the installation location of the power equipment in the power system so as to realize the proposed power system. In another embodiment, the system state changing unit 20 may present the power system proposed to the operator using an output device such as a display device.

As an example of the change of the state of the power system performed by the system state changing unit 20, the state of the power system can be changed by changing the installation location of the power facility to be estimated. In this case, by changing the installation location of the power equipment, for example, the influence of the installation location on the temperature, humidity, and the like can be changed. As a result, a failure probability estimation model can be made more accurate for power equipment whose temperature, humidity, and the like greatly affect the failure probability. As a change of the installation location, it is possible to replace the installation location for the same type of equipment, or to replace the same type of equipment provided for maintenance with another equipment of the same type. In addition, as an example of changing the installation location, for example, by changing the power equipment installed in the coastal area susceptible to salt damage to a mountain area that is less susceptible to salt damage, the accuracy of the model for estimating the failure probability for salt damage is improved. Can be.

As another example of the change of the state of the power system performed by the system state changing unit 20, the state of the power system can be changed by switching the connection state of the power system including the power facility to be estimated. The switching of the connection state of the power system can be executed by changing the combination of the ON / OFF states of the switches arranged at various points in the power system. In this case, by switching the switch, for example, the average amount of current or voltage (measurement information D) flowing through the power equipment can be changed. As a result, it is possible to examine in detail the effect of voltage and current on the failure probability (equipment life).

FIG. 2 is an exemplary and schematic configuration diagram showing details of the equipment state estimation unit 18. The equipment state estimation unit 18 includes a probability model generation unit 22, a system state determination unit 24, a probability estimation unit 26, a probability storage unit 28, a system state formulation unit 30, and the like.

The probability model generation unit 22 generates a probability model indicating a failure probability of each power facility based on at least one of the measurement information D and the maintenance information B, which influence the deterioration state of each power facility. Generate. For example, influencing factors (for example, temperature and humidity, etc.) and failure probabilities that affect the deterioration state of each electric power facility, the measurement information D acquired by the system information acquisition unit 16, or the maintenance information acquired by the maintenance history information acquisition unit 12 A probability model representing the relationship between B and measurement information (inspection information) acquired at the time of inspection is generated. As the probabilistic model, for example, a model called a Bayesian network or a graphical model that can represent a relationship between an influencing factor and a resulting event as a graph structure and can represent the strength of the relationship as a probability can be used. The stochastic model is not limited to this, and various methods can be used.

Based on the power flow information C calculated by the power flow calculation unit 14 and the measurement information D acquired by the system information acquisition unit 16, the system state determination unit 24 instructs the current state of the power system by the system state change unit 20. It is determined whether the state is based on the control command E. For example, a power flow state (standard power flow information C such as a current value and a voltage value of each place) in the power system according to the control command E of the system status change unit 20 can be calculated based on the specification information A. Therefore, when a failure has occurred in the power system, the measurement information D (current value or voltage value) actually measured in the power system is assumed in the power system based on the control command E of the system state changing unit 20. It may deviate from the value you are doing. In this case, if the estimation of the failure probability of the probability model generated by the probability model generation unit 22 is performed using the measurement information D (an abnormal value caused by a failure or the like) acquired by the system information acquisition unit 16, the reliability of the estimation is improved. Decreases. Therefore, when the system state determination unit 24 determines that the current state of the power system is not based on the control command E instructed by the system state change unit 20, the power equipment planning support system 100 Is excluded from the estimation target of the failure probability.

The system state determination unit 24 compares the statistical value such as the average value and the standard deviation of the measurement information D with the power flow information C, so that the current state of the power system is instructed by the system state change unit 20. It may be determined whether or not the state is based on the control command E. In this case, the value of the tide information C may have a margin. This margin may be set in advance or may be changed as appropriate. By giving a margin to the value of the power flow information C, the influence of the fluctuation of the measurement information D that fluctuates due to disturbance or the like can be reduced, and the determination by the system state determination unit 24 can be suppressed from becoming extremely severe.

As a result of the determination by the system state determination unit 24, the probability estimation unit 26 indicates that the power system including the power equipment currently being estimated is a system based on the control command E instructed by the system state change unit 20. In this case, the failure probability of the power equipment to be estimated is estimated. That is, the probability estimating unit 26 avoids executing the probability estimation using the measurement information D in an unintended system state (for example, a failure occurrence state).

The probability estimation unit 26 estimates the probability of the probability model created by the probability model generation unit 22 based on the measurement information D provided from the system information acquisition unit 16, the maintenance information B provided from the maintenance history information acquisition unit 12, and the like. This is performed by estimating the state of the influencing element that affects the deterioration state of the power equipment. In this case, the most probable probability distribution of the state of the influence element can be estimated using a technique such as the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this case, the probability estimating unit 26 may execute the estimation using only the measurement information D, or may execute the estimation using only the maintenance information B. For example, the probability estimating unit 26 performs an estimation using only the measurement information D for a power cable, an electric motor, or the like, where a sign of deterioration can be found from the electrical measurement information D (current value or voltage value). You may. On the other hand, for equipment (electric power equipment) in which signs of deterioration of the transformer mainly appear as dissolved gases in the insulating oil, it may be estimated from only the maintenance information B.

The probability estimation unit 26 may present the estimation result to a display device 32 such as a monitor that can be visually recognized by the operator. In this case, the probability estimating unit 26 may present at least one of the specification information A, the maintenance information B, the power flow information C, and the control command E as information on the power facility to be estimated, Information such as the configuration of the system may be presented together. By presenting various kinds of additional information on the display device 32 together with the estimation result, it is possible to make it easier for the operator to quickly and appropriately understand the state of the power equipment to be estimated.

The probability storage unit 28 stores the result of estimation of the failure probability of the probability model of each power facility estimated by the probability estimation unit 26. The probability storage unit 28 may store the time at which the probability estimation unit 26 performs the estimation together with the estimation result. By storing the estimation result and the time in association with each other, it is possible to compare the estimation result with respect to the same power equipment in the past, to obtain a transition in the state of the power equipment, and to estimate the life of the power equipment. It can be carried out. In addition, by referring to a plurality of estimation results for each power facility stored in the probability storage unit 28, a configuration that can prolong the life of the power system can be designed.

The system state determination unit 30 considers the estimation result of the failure probability of the power equipment estimated by the probability estimation unit 26 and configures the power system such that an estimation result different from the estimation result based on the electric power system at present can be expected. Formulate. For example, when it is desired to obtain the relationship between the effect of the load current and the failure probability, the system state formulation unit 30 refers to the probability storage unit 28, selects a power facility exhibiting the same degree of deterioration, and assigns the selected power facility On the other hand, a configuration for switching to an electric power system so that different load currents flow is determined. Similarly, for example, when it is desired to obtain the relationship between the installation location of the power equipment and the failure probability, the system status determination unit 30 refers to the probability storage unit 28 and The equipment is selected, and the configuration of the power system is replaced so that the same load current flows to the selected power equipment.

The configuration of the power system formulated by the system state formulation unit 30 is provided to the system state change unit 20, and the system state change unit 20 performs, for example, switching of a switch interposed in various parts of the existing power system. Thereby, the change of the electric power system is realized. When the power system includes a system that automatically switches switches and the like in various places, the switching of the power system is performed based on a control command E from the system state changing unit 20. When the automatic switching system is not provided, for example, the switching content may be presented to the operator via the display device 32 or the like, and the operator may execute the switching operation. In this case, a procedure regarding the switching operation may be presented together.

An example of the power equipment failure probability estimation processing executed by the power equipment planning support system 100 configured as described above will be described with reference to the flowchart in FIG. Although the flowchart illustrated in FIG. 3 illustrates one estimation process, it is assumed that the process illustrated in FIG. 3 is executed each time a new power system is determined by the system state determination unit 30.

The power equipment planning support system 100 starts operating when the failure probability of the power equipment is estimated by the operation of the operator. First, the system state determination unit 24 of the equipment state estimation unit 18 determines whether or not the state of the power system for which the failure probability is to be estimated is based on the control command E instructed by the system state change unit 20 at present. Is determined (S100). That is, when a failure or the like exists in the power system and the state of the power system is not based on the control command E (No in S100), that is, measurement information suitable for estimating the state of the power equipment included in the power system. If there is a possibility that D cannot be obtained, this flow is temporarily terminated, and the estimation of the failure probability of the power equipment by the probability model in the current power system is temporarily terminated.

In S100, when it is determined that the state of the power system for which the failure probability is to be estimated is currently based on the control command E (Yes in S100), the probability estimation unit 26 determines , Perform an estimation process. That is, when the power system is functioning normally without any failure or the like, the probability estimating unit 26 applies the power flow information C to the probability model generated by the probability model generating unit 22 according to a predetermined weight. Then, the failure probability estimation calculation when the probability model is operated in consideration of the measurement information D, the maintenance information B, and the like is executed (S102).

Subsequently, the probability estimating unit 26 determines whether or not the estimation calculation has converged to a valid result (S104). In other words, when the result of the estimation calculation of the failure probability of the power equipment to be estimated (for example, a transformer or a switch) is an extreme result such as "fails tomorrow," or "fails after 100 years." , The initial value (initial setting) used for the calculation can be regarded as inappropriate. In this case, the probability estimating unit 26 determines that the estimation calculation is not converged (No in S104), and adjusts the weight of the influence element of the probability model (adjustment of the influence probability between the influence elements), the tide information C and the measurement. The value of the information D is adjusted, the process returns to S102, and the estimation calculation is performed again. The reference value (threshold) for determining whether the estimation calculation is appropriate can be set in advance by a test or the like, or can be appropriately changed by referring to the result of the estimation calculation. The adjustment of the weight of the influence element and the adjustment of the values of the tide information C and the measurement information D can be performed in accordance with a preset change width (change pattern).

In S104, when the probability estimation unit 26 determines that the result of the estimation calculation is valid and the calculation result has converged (Yes in S104), the probability estimation unit 26 determines the state of deterioration of the power equipment obtained by the estimation calculation ( The failure state is compared with the current deterioration state of the power equipment, and the transition of the deterioration state is acquired. If the deterioration state of the power equipment obtained by the estimation calculation has not changed with respect to the current deterioration state of the power equipment, or if the deterioration state has progressed (Yes in S106), the power equipment deterioration state The estimation can be considered to have been made properly. In this case, the probability estimating unit 26 causes the probability storing unit 28 to store the estimation result, and ends the flow once. In this case, the probability estimation unit 26 may present the estimation result via the display device 32. In this case, various information used for the estimation, the configuration of the power system, and the like may be presented together with the estimation result.

The probability estimating unit 26 provides the estimation result to the system status determining unit 30. The system state formulation unit 30 refers to the provided estimation result, and formulates the configuration of the power system so that an estimation result different from the estimation result can be expected. Then, the system state determining unit 30 provides the new power system thus determined to the system state changing unit 20, and the system state changing unit 20 changes the connection state of the power equipment or realizes a new power system. The change of the arrangement position of the power equipment is performed by a change system or an operation of an operator.

In S106, when the deterioration state of the power equipment obtained by the estimation calculation does not change or does not progress with respect to the current deterioration state of the power equipment (No in S106), that is, the deterioration state of the power equipment is When the power is improved, the probability estimating unit 26 checks whether or not the power equipment has been repaired (S108). Normally, it is unlikely that the power equipment will be improved in its deteriorated state unless repairs (repair, replacement, etc.) are performed. The probability estimation unit 26 can determine whether or not the power equipment is repaired by referring to the maintenance information B. When the power equipment is repaired (Yes in S108), the probability estimation unit 26 can determine that the estimation result indicating that the deterioration state of the power equipment has been improved is an appropriate result. In this case, the probability estimating unit 26 causes the probability storage unit 28 to store the estimation result together with the maintenance information B, and ends the flow once. Then, the power equipment planning support system 100 executes the process of presenting the estimation result and the maintenance information B via the display device 32 as described above. In addition, the system state formulation unit 30 performs a process of creating another power system with reference to the estimation result, and the system state change unit 20 performs a process of realizing the created power system and the like.

On the other hand, in S108, when the probability estimating unit 26 determines that the power equipment has not been repaired as a result of referring to the maintenance information B (No in S108), the estimation result in which the deterioration state has been improved is not appropriate. Is determined. In this case, the adjustment of the weight of the influence element of the probability model (adjustment of the influence probability between the influence elements) and the adjustment of the values of the power flow information C and the measurement information D are performed, and the process returns to S102 to perform the estimation calculation again.

Each time a new power system is proposed by the system state changing unit 20, that is, every time the configuration of the power system is changed, the equipment state estimating unit 18 calculates the probability that the influence factor and the deterioration state of the power equipment are related. Estimate the change. That is, the process of the flowchart in FIG. 3 for estimating the deterioration state of the power equipment in the new power system is repeated, and the estimation result is stored in the probability storage unit 28. As a result, it is possible to acquire information on the transition of deterioration (lifetime) due to the way of operating the power equipment (how to apply a load and installation location), that is, information on the strength of the factors that affect the probability of failure. The accuracy of the probability estimation model can be improved. For example, conventionally, if the average life of a certain power facility is one year, and if the variation in the life is expected to be ± 0.5 years, for example, any timing between 0.5 years and 1.5 years Will end its life. In this case, a renewal plan is to be made on the assumption that the life of the power equipment will reach a life of 0.5 years on the safe side. On the other hand, the power equipment planning support system 100 uses the influence information on the magnitude of the influence of the factor affecting the failure probability accumulated in the probability storage unit 28 based on the use state (load environment, natural environment, etc.) of the power equipment. Thus, an accurate failure probability (lifetime) can be obtained. As a result, it is possible to make the variation width of the life narrower, for example, ± 0.1 years. That is, it can be assumed that the life will end at any timing between 0.9 years and 1.1 years. In this case, it is possible to formulate a renewal plan assuming that the life of the power equipment will reach a life of, for example, 0.9 years on the safe side. As a result, it is possible to formulate a renewal plan that can use the power equipment for 0.4 years longer than when the power equipment planning support system 100 is not used.

As described above, according to the power equipment planning support system 100 of the present embodiment, the life or the failure probability of each power equipment can be estimated with higher accuracy in drafting an update plan for the power equipment. Further, it is possible to diversify the equipment renewal time in accordance with the state of each electric power equipment, and it is possible to contribute to a plan for using the electric power equipment for a longer time. According to the power equipment planning support system 100, the relationship between the usage environment of the power equipment and the failure probability (lifetime) can be accurately acquired. Therefore, for example, when the failure probability (lifetime) is estimated (verified) for a certain electric power system, it is possible to regard the similar failure probability (lifetime) in a similar environment. As a result, it is possible to apply a power system that has already been verified to a similar environment, which can contribute to improving the efficiency of drafting an update plan.

The power facility planning support system 100 of the present embodiment may be realized by executing a support program recorded on a computer-readable recording medium on a computer. The support program may be configured to be provided in a recording medium such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk (FD), a CD-R, and a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk) in an installable or executable file. .

Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the above embodiment is merely an example, and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention. The above embodiment can be implemented in other various forms, and various omissions, replacements, combinations, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. The above embodiments are included in the scope and the gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and the scope equivalent thereto.

Claims

A power equipment information acquisition unit that acquires specification information of the power equipment to be processed;
A maintenance history information acquisition unit for acquiring maintenance information of the power equipment,
A power flow calculation unit that calculates power flow information of a power system including the power equipment,
A system information acquisition unit that acquires measurement information indicating a state of the power system measured at a preset position when the power system operates,
An equipment state estimation unit that estimates a deterioration state of the power equipment based on the specification information, the maintenance information, the power flow information, and the measurement information,
Based on the estimation result estimated by the equipment state estimation unit, a system state change unit that changes the configuration state of the power system so that a result different from the estimation result can be expected,
With
The power equipment planning support system, wherein the equipment state estimation unit estimates a deterioration state of the power equipment in the power system each time a configuration state is changed by the system state change unit.
The equipment state estimating unit generates a probability model indicating a failure probability of the power equipment based on at least one of an influencing factor affecting the deterioration state of the power equipment, the measurement information, and the maintenance information. The power facility planning support system according to claim 1.
3. The facility state estimating unit according to claim 2, wherein when the configuration state of the power system is changed by the system state changing unit, a change in a probability that the influencing factor and the deterioration state of the power equipment are related is estimated. The described power equipment planning support system.
4. The power equipment planning support system according to claim 1, wherein the system state changing unit changes an installation location of the power equipment in the power system. 5.
5. The power equipment planning support system according to claim 1, wherein the system state changing unit changes a connection state of the power equipment in the power grid. 6.