JP2009264955A - Method for estimating hypocentral distance or epicentral distance using preliminary tremor of earthquake motion - Google Patents
Method for estimating hypocentral distance or epicentral distance using preliminary tremor of earthquake motion Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Description
本発明は地震の初期微動の段階で、その地震の震源距離または震央距離を推定するための方法に関する。 The present invention relates to a method for estimating the epicenter distance or epicenter distance of an earthquake at the initial tremor stage of the earthquake.
地震動は初期微動（Ｐ波）と主要動（Ｓ波）に大別することができる。このなかで実際に地震被害を及ぼすのは、ほとんどの場合主要動（Ｓ波）である。しかし、従来の地震計は地動を監視しておき、その振動レベルが一定の値を超えると警報を出すため、地震動の主要動により警報を出すものがほとんどであった。しかし、このような方法では警報が出力されてから破壊的な地震動が到来するまでの時間がほとんど無いという問題があった。これを解決するためには、初期微動の段階でその地震の発生した場所や規模を推定し、それにしたがった警報をいち早く出すことが重要である。とくに震源距離や震央距離を初期微動の段階で推定することができると、破壊的な地震動が到来するまでの余裕時間を知ることができ、的確な対応をすることが可能となる。 Seismic motion can be broadly divided into initial fine motion (P wave) and main motion (S wave). In most cases, the main motion (S wave) actually causes earthquake damage. However, since most conventional seismometers monitor ground motion and give a warning when the vibration level exceeds a certain value, most of them give a warning by the main motion of the earthquake motion. However, such a method has a problem that there is almost no time from the alarm output until the destructive earthquake motion arrives. In order to solve this, it is important to estimate the location and scale of the earthquake at the initial tremor stage and promptly issue an alarm accordingly. In particular, if the epicenter distance and epicenter distance can be estimated at the initial tremor stage, it is possible to know the margin time until the destructive earthquake motion arrives and to take an appropriate response.
従来の初期微動から地震の震源距離や震央距離を推定する方法には、初期微動の周期からマグニチュードを推定し、そのマグニチュードと振幅の関係から震源距離を推定する方法がある（例えば特許文献１参照）。しかし、この方法では、まずマグニチュードを推定し、その結果を使って震源距離を推定するため、誤差が累積するおそれがある。 As a conventional method for estimating the epicenter distance and epicenter distance from the initial tremor, there is a method of estimating the magnitude from the period of the initial tremor and estimating the epicenter distance from the relationship between the magnitude and the amplitude (see, for example, Patent Document 1). ). However, with this method, the magnitude is estimated first, and the epicenter distance is estimated using the result, so there is a possibility that errors may accumulate.
また初動検知後の一定時間の波形の包絡曲線をあらかじめ想定した関数にフィッティングすることによって推定する方法がある（例えば特許文献２参照）。しかし、この方法では、最低２秒間の波形を用いて包絡曲線を求め、それをあらかじめ想定した関数にフィッティングさせるため推定に時間がかかり、またフィッティングがうまくできなかった場合には解が不定になり、さらに多くのデータが必要となるため推定結果が本震のあとになるおそれがある。
そこで、本発明が解決しようとする課題は、地震の初期微動を検知した段階で精度良く、短時間で震源距離あるいは震央距離を推定する方法がないこと、である。 Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is that there is no method for estimating the epicenter distance or epicenter distance in a short time with high accuracy at the stage of detecting the initial tremor of the earthquake.
地震の断層破壊の過程を考えると、破壊開始からのごく短い間は地震動の大小に関係なく応力降下が一定である。このことから、地震動の大小に関係なく破壊の始まりの地震動はその地震の規模（マグニチュード）にかかわらず小さなほぼ一定の値であり、破壊の進行に伴って徐々に地震動が大きくなっていくものと考えられる。このため、地震を初期微動の早期の段階で検知した場合は、その一定時間の最大振幅は観測地点の地震からの距離だけで規定される。 Considering the process of earthquake rupture, the stress drop is constant regardless of the magnitude of the ground motion for a very short time from the start of the rupture. Therefore, regardless of the magnitude of the ground motion, the ground motion at the beginning of the rupture is a small, almost constant value regardless of the magnitude (magnitude) of the quake, and the ground motion gradually increases as the rupture progresses. Conceivable. For this reason, when an earthquake is detected at an early stage of initial tremor, the maximum amplitude for a certain period of time is defined only by the distance from the earthquake at the observation point.
すなわち、初期微動の早期の地震動は、震源においては地震の規模（マグニチュード）によらずその地震動の振幅はほぼ一定であり、それをある距離離れた観測点で記録した場合、その観測点における地震動の振幅はその観測点までの距離減衰特性のみに影響される。つまり、ある地震の震源距離または震央距離は、地震動の初期微動を早期の段階で検知したときのその一定時間の最大振幅値と、あらかじめ統計的に算出することができる距離減衰特性によって求めることができる。 In other words, the earthquake motion at the early tremor has an almost constant amplitude at the epicenter, regardless of the magnitude of the earthquake (magnitude). Is affected only by the attenuation characteristics of the distance to the observation point. In other words, the epicenter distance or epicenter distance of a certain earthquake can be obtained from the maximum amplitude value for a certain time when initial tremor of the ground motion is detected at an early stage and the distance attenuation characteristic that can be statistically calculated in advance. it can.
なお、この方法のために観測する地震動の指標値は、その変動をリアルタイムに把握できるものであればよく、例えば、加速度、速度、変位、リアルタイム震度などを用いることができる。 It should be noted that the index value of the seismic motion observed for this method is not particularly limited as long as the fluctuation can be grasped in real time. For example, acceleration, velocity, displacement, real-time seismic intensity and the like can be used.
本発明の方法によれば、地震の初期微動を早期の段階で検知すると、その一定時間後には震源距離または震央距離を推定することができる。 According to the method of the present invention, when the initial tremor of an earthquake is detected at an early stage, the epicenter distance or epicenter distance can be estimated after a certain period of time.
本発明は地震の初期微動を検知した場合、初期微動の振幅の一定時間の最大値を保持する。また、他方で初期微動の検知後一定時間の最大振幅と震源距離または震央距離の関係を示す統計量を算出しておく。これにより、地震の初期微動を検知した場合、保持した初期微動の一定時間の最大振幅と算出された統計量の関係から、震源距離あるいは震央距離を推定する。 In the present invention, when an initial tremor of an earthquake is detected, the maximum value of the amplitude of the initial tremor for a certain time is held. On the other hand, a statistic indicating the relationship between the maximum amplitude for a fixed time after detection of initial tremor and the epicenter distance or epicenter distance is calculated. Thereby, when the initial tremor of the earthquake is detected, the epicenter distance or the epicenter distance is estimated from the relationship between the maximum amplitude of the held initial tremor for a certain time and the calculated statistic.
本発明の地震動の初期微動を用いた震源距離推定方法の実施例として、実際のマグニチュード５．４から８．０の地震を様々な観測点で記録した加速度波形を使って、初期微動の最初の１秒間の最大振幅値と震源距離を比較したものを図１に示す。バラツキはあるものの、最大振幅値と震源距離が対応していることがわかる。これを統計的に処理することにより距離減衰特性を算出することができ、それを用いて未知の地震についても地震の初期微動の１秒間の最大振幅値を用いて震源距離を推定することができる。 As an example of the method of estimating the epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the ground motion of the present invention, the first initial tremor is obtained by using the acceleration waveforms recorded at various observation points of the actual magnitude 5.4 to 8.0 earthquakes. Fig. 1 shows a comparison of the maximum amplitude value for one second and the epicenter distance. Although there are variations, it can be seen that the maximum amplitude value corresponds to the epicenter distance. By statistically processing this, the distance attenuation characteristic can be calculated, and the epicenter distance can be estimated using the maximum amplitude value per second of the initial tremor of the earthquake for unknown earthquakes. .
また図２には同じデータセットを用いて初期微動の最初の１秒間の最大振幅値と震央距離を比較したものを示す。こちらの場合もバラツキはあるものの、最大振幅値と震央距離が対応していることがわかる。これを統計的に処理することにより距離減衰特性を算出することができ、それを用いて未知の地震についても地震の初期微動の１秒間の最大振幅値を用いて震央距離を推定することができる。 FIG. 2 shows a comparison of the epicenter distance with the maximum amplitude value for the first 1 second of the initial tremor using the same data set. Even in this case, there is variation, but it can be seen that the maximum amplitude value corresponds to the epicenter distance. The distance attenuation characteristic can be calculated by statistically processing this, and the epicenter distance can be estimated using the maximum amplitude value per second of the initial tremor of the earthquake for unknown earthquakes. .
なお、ここでは地震動の観測を加速度で行い震源距離あるいは震央距離を推定した場合の例を示したが、本発明は上記実施例に限定されるものではなく、前述のように観測するのは加速度以外に速度、変位、リアルタイム震度など、地震動にあわせてリアルタイムに変動する指標値であればそれを用いることができる。また、初期微動の最大値を観測する時間もここでは１秒としたが、これも変動させてもっとも適当な数値を選ぶことができる。 In this example, the seismic motion is observed with acceleration and the epicenter distance or epicenter distance is estimated. However, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and the observation is as described above. In addition, any index value that changes in real time according to seismic motion, such as velocity, displacement, and real-time seismic intensity, can be used. In addition, although the time for observing the maximum value of the initial fine movement is 1 second here, this can be varied to select the most appropriate numerical value.
Claims (4)
地震動の初期微動を検知し、
検知後一定時間の最大振幅を保持し、
他方であらかじめ過去の地震動の初期微動の検知後一定時間の最大振幅と震源距離または震央距離の関係を示す統計量を算出しておき、
保持した地震動の初期微動の検知後一定時間の最大振幅とあらかじめ算出した統計量とから、
地震の初期微動を用いた震源距離または震央距離を推定する方法。 In the method of estimating the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake,
Detects initial tremor of earthquake motion,
Holds the maximum amplitude for a certain time after detection,
On the other hand, a statistic indicating the relationship between the maximum amplitude and the epicenter distance or epicenter distance for a certain time after the detection of the initial tremor in the past earthquake motion is calculated in advance.
From the maximum amplitude for a certain time after the detection of the initial tremor of the seismic motion held and the statistics calculated in advance,
A method to estimate the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake.
最大振幅を加速度の最大振幅としたことを特徴とする、
地震の初期微動を用いた震源距離または震央距離を推定する方法。 In the method of estimating the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake of claim 1,
The maximum amplitude is the maximum amplitude of acceleration,
A method to estimate the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake.
最大振幅を速度の最大振幅としたことを特徴とする、
地震の初期微動を用いた震源距離または震央距離を推定する方法。 In the method of estimating the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake of claim 1,
The maximum amplitude is the maximum amplitude of speed,
A method to estimate the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake.
最大振幅を変位の最大振幅としたことを特徴とする、
地震の初期微動を用いた震源距離または震央距離を推定する方法。
In the method of estimating the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake of claim 1,
The maximum amplitude is the maximum amplitude of displacement,
A method to estimate the epicenter distance or epicenter distance using the initial tremor of the earthquake.
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| JP2016217997A (en) * | 2015-05-26 | 2016-12-22 | 公益財団法人鉄道総合技術研究所 | Epicenter distance estimation method using inclination of seismic wave p wave initial motion |
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| 中村洋光、他: "早期地震諸元推定手法における推定精度について", 日本地震学会講演予稿集 ２００３年度 秋季大会, JPN6008031961, 1 October 2003 (2003-10-01), pages 115, ISSN: 0001075522 * |
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| JP2016217997A (en) * | 2015-05-26 | 2016-12-22 | 公益財団法人鉄道総合技術研究所 | Epicenter distance estimation method using inclination of seismic wave p wave initial motion |
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