JP2000217253A - Method of forecasting consumed electrical energy - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately forecast consumed electrical energy by a ground of plants within a given period of time in the future. SOLUTION: Operating plans 4a, 4b, 4c of each plant 1a, 1b, 1c are revised, based on the results of operations which change from hour to hour. Based on the revised operation plans 4a, 4b, 4c, electrical energy consumed by each plant 1a, 1b, 1c within a given period of time in the future is forecasted. The forecasted electrical energy of each plant 1a, 1b, 1c within a given period of time in future is integrated to obtain forecast total electrical energy of the group of plants within the given period of time in the future (D1). Also, electrical energy which generated by private power generating facilities within a given period of time in the future (D2) is forecasted. From D2 and the electrical energy to be purchased on a contract (D3) basis, electrical energy usable by the group of plants within the period of time in future (D4) is calculated (D4=D3+D2). If D1 exceeds D4, electrical energy usable by load-reducing plants within the given period of time is obtained, based on predetermined order of reducing loads 10 for each plant and the operation plans of the corresponding plants are revised based on their electrical energy usable within a prescribed period of time in the future.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method for accurately predicting the total power consumption of a group of factories having a plurality of loads within a predetermined time in the future.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In general enterprises or government offices and the like, in order to use a large amount of power, a power purchase contract is concluded with a power company and power is purchased from the power company. In this power purchase contract, the maximum value (hereinafter referred to as demand value) and the basic power amount of the integrated power amount for a predetermined time, for example, 30 minutes, are determined, and if the power consumption exceeds the demand value, a large penalty is penalized. Is imposed. On the other hand, if the amount of used power is less than the basic amount of power, it is extremely uneconomical to pay the amount of the basic amount of power. The demand value is a power purchase contract with a power company and is a maximum value of the accumulated power consumption for a predetermined time, for example, 30 minutes.

[0003] For this reason, for example, in a steel mill, the amount of power consumption is predicted for each plant such as a sintering plant, a coke plant, an ironmaking plant, a steelmaking plant, a rolling plant, a pipe mill, and the like. If the total power consumption exceeds the demand value, a notice to raise the demand value will be issued to avoid paying a large penalty, and if this is not possible, the plant must be shut down or planned for operation. Demand management is performed so as not to exceed the demand value by reducing the load due to the change of the demand. However, shutting down a plant or changing an operation plan for demand management leads to a decrease in production volume and a deterioration in product quality.

[0004] When the power consumption is lower than the basic power, the basic power is reduced. On the contrary, when the power usage exceeds the basic power (however, the power is lower than the demand value), the basic power is raised. Was notified to the power company one hour ago.

[0005] As a method of estimating the amount of power consumption, the amount of power to be used within a demand cycle is set as a planned load amount for each load constituting a load system, and each load is set within the demand cycle. Calculate the final power consumption of the demand cycle for each load from the power consumption for each load and the set planned load, and calculate the final power consumption for each load. Method of integrating the total estimated final power consumption of the entire load system from the predicted power
No. 136832).

[0006] Also, a factory fixed repair range determining unit, a factory fixed start-up range determining unit, a factory-specific regular repair, and a start-up planned power consumption adjustment unit determine whether to enter regular repair and start up. The consumption pattern is predicted, and the regular maintenance power consumption prediction calculation unit predicts the power consumption during the current time. Except for regular maintenance and start-up, the normal operation power consumption prediction unit predicts the power consumption based on the power consumption pattern of the power consumption pattern creation unit. The total power load prediction calculation unit predicts the amount of power purchase based on the total power consumption prediction and the self-generated power prediction value of the self-generated power prediction calculation unit. Apparatus characterized by issuing an operation stop command or adjusting and controlling the self-generated power by a self-generated control unit (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 8-186
No. 932) has been proposed.

[0007]

Problems to be Solved by the Invention
For example, the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. H10-27964 calculates an average value (0.5925 MWH / min) of power consumption in the past 20 minutes as shown in FIG. This is for calculating the amount of power used. However, at each factory,
In the case where the equipment is periodically stopped to perform inspection and repair of the equipment, as shown in FIG. 12, the predicted power consumption becomes excessive with respect to the actual power consumption, resulting in unnecessary factory shutdown, Not able to notify appropriate demand value reduction. Conversely, when starting operation of equipment that has been stopped for inspection, repair, or production adjustment, the actual power consumption suddenly exceeds the predicted power usage as shown in Fig. 13. Becomes
There are drawbacks in that the power consumption exceeds the demand value, and it is not possible to give a notice of raising the demand value appropriately.

[0008] Further, the device disclosed in JP-A-8-186932 is
During operation in the normal state, for example, if there is an operation fluctuation such as equipment trouble or planned advance operation,
As shown in 14, it is not possible to accurately predict the amount of power used,
It has the drawbacks that the amount of power used exceeds the demand value, that the factory is stopped unnecessarily, and that it is not possible to give an appropriate demand value increase or decrease notice.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION An object of the present invention is to solve the above-mentioned disadvantages of the prior art, and to accurately predict the amount of electric power to be used in a factory group having a plurality of loads within a predetermined time in the future, regardless of normal operation and regular repair. An object of the present invention is to provide a method for estimating the amount of power consumption.

[0010]

According to the power consumption estimation method of the present invention, an operation plan for each factory, which is input in advance, is corrected based on an operation result that changes every moment for each factory.
Then, based on the corrected operation plan, the power consumption within a predetermined time in the future for each factory is predicted. The predicted electric power consumption for each factory within a predetermined future time is integrated to obtain the total electric power consumption of the factory group within a predetermined future time.

[0011] As described above, the operation plan for each factory, which is input in advance, is corrected based on the operation results that change every moment for each factory, and the future operation time for each factory is corrected based on the corrected operation plan. , It is possible to predict the power consumption within a predetermined time in the future with high accuracy for each factory. Therefore, by integrating the power consumption within a predetermined time in the future for each factory, the total power consumption of the factory group within the predetermined time in the future can be predicted with high accuracy, and the total power consumption does not exceed the demand value. In addition, unnecessary stoppage of the factory can be avoided, and the correction of the demand value or the basic power amount can be accurately notified to the power company, and the power cost can be reduced.

[0012] In addition, the method for estimating the amount of power consumption according to the present invention predicts the amount of power generated (D2) of the private power generation facility within a predetermined time in the future.
Then, based on the predicted generated power amount (D2) and the power purchase contract amount with the power company (D3), the power available amount (D4) of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future is calculated (D4 = D3 + D2). . The predicted power consumption (D1) of the factory group within a predetermined future time is obtained from the predicted power consumption by factory based on the operation plan for each factory. Estimated power consumption
If (D1) exceeds the available power amount (D4) of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future, the available power amount of the factory whose load is reduced within the predetermined time in the future is reduced based on a predetermined load reduction order by factory. Then, the operation plan of the factory is corrected based on the available electric power within a predetermined time in the future.

[0013] As described above, the power generation amount (D2) of the private power generation equipment within a predetermined time in the future is predicted, and the factory power generation amount (D2) and the power purchase contract amount (D3) with the power company are estimated based on the predicted power generation amount (D2). Calculate the power available amount (D4) of the group within the predetermined time in the future (D4 = D3 + D2) and predict the factory group within the predetermined time from the predicted power consumption for each factory based on the operation plan for each factory Find the power consumption (D1),
When the predicted power consumption (D1) exceeds the power available capacity (D4) of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future, the power within a predetermined future time of the factory for which the load is reduced based on the predetermined load reduction order by factory. By calculating the usable amount and correcting the operation plan of the factory within a predetermined time in the future based on the available power amount, it is possible to improve the production amount and product quality of the factory.

[0014]

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The operation plan for each plant in the present invention is a production plan of the same day for each plant, for example, in the case of a hot rolling plant of a steel mill, "the expected rolling start time for each lot,
Scheduled end time of rolling, material, thickness, width, length before rolling, thickness, width, length after rolling '', and in the case of an electric furnace, `` scheduled start time, end time, Quantity,
It refers to schedule information such as “mixing components, refining method”. In addition, the operation results of each factory are, for example, in the case of a hot-rolling plant of a steel mill, `` rolling start time, rolling end time, material, thickness, width, length before rolling, and In the case of an electric furnace, it means actual information such as "energization start time, energization end time, charging amount, blending component, refining method" for each charge.

[0015] For example, in the case of a hot rolling plant of a steel mill, the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan for each factory is, for example, an empirical rule used without rolling in the power consumption prediction unit in advance. Based on empirical rules from base electric energy derived based on the above, rolling time, material, thickness, width, length before rolling, thickness, width, and length after rolling based on empirical rules, and learning based on rolling results The relationship with the amount of power required for rolling to be performed is input and stored. Then, FIG. 7 (a), rolling time, material, thickness, width before rolling, and the rolling time for each lot from the operation plan shown in Table 1.
Determine the length, thickness, width and length after rolling.

[0016]

【table 1】

For example, the rolling time of lot No. 21 is from 12:00 to 12:00
Min, material stainless steel, thickness 150mm before rolling, width 670mm,
Length 8920mm, thickness after rolling 3.0mm, width 689.5mm, length 4228
00mm. Lot No.22 rolling time 12:05 to 12:10, material stainless steel, thickness 150mm, width 1030mm, length 8 before rolling
080mm, thickness after rolling 4.5mm, width 1055.6mm, length 256600m
m. Lot No.23 rolling time 12:08 to 12:14, medium carbon steel material, thickness 227mm, width 1250mm, length 7632m before rolling
m, thickness after rolling 4.0m, width 965.4mm, length 542500mm. Lot No.24 rolling time from 12:14 to 12:20, medium carbon steel, thickness before rolling 227mm, width 1220mm, length 6000mm, thickness after rolling 7.28m, width 1135.4mm, length 191900mm. Lot No.
25 rolling time from 12:18 to 12:24, material low carbon steel, thickness before rolling 227mm, width 990mm, length 8786m, thickness after rolling
3.23m, width 981.6mm, length 613200mm. Lot No.26 rolling time 12: 25-12: 30, material low carbon steel, thickness 227m before rolling, width 990mm, length 6802mm, thickness 2.91m after rolling, width 2.91m
703.3mm, length 739900mm.

Then, the rolling time, material,
Thickness, width, length before rolling, thickness, width, length after rolling,
A predicted power consumption required for rolling for each lot is calculated from a relationship with a predicted power consumption based on a preset rule of thumb. The predicted power consumption and the base power required for rolling for each lot calculated in FIG. 7B are integrated for a predetermined time in the future to obtain a predicted power consumption of the hot rolling plant for a predetermined time in the future.

For example, the electric power required for rolling of lot No. 21 is 2.0
2.3MW, Lot N required for rolling MW, Lot No.22
o Electric power required for rolling of o.23 and No.24 1.2MW, lot No.2
5.Electric power required for rolling No.26 0.8MW, power required for rolling of lots No.21 to No.26 9.3MW + base power of hot rolling mill 20MW = 30 from 12:00 to 12:30 The estimated power consumption per minute is 28.3MW.

In the case of an electric furnace, the base electric energy derived based on an empirical rule used without refining in the electric power consumption predicting section in advance, the power supply start time, the power supply end time, and the power supply time for each charge. Based on the empirical rules, based on the input amount, the compounding components, and the refining method, the relationship between the amount of power required for refining and learned from the refining results is input and stored. Then, FIG. 8 (a),
From the operation plan shown in Table 2, the energization start time for each charge,
The end time of electricity supply, charging amount, compounding components, and refining method are obtained.

[0021]

[Table 2]

[0022] For example, the scheduled energization start time of charge No.E 12:00
0 minutes, scheduled end time of power supply 12:16, charging amount 100 tons, compounding components Si: 5%, C: 7%, Cr: 12%, Ni: 8%, material stainless steel.
Charge No.F energization start scheduled time 12:16, energization end scheduled time 12:30, charging amount 120ton, compounding component Si: 5%, C: 7
%, Cr: 13%, Ni: 9%, material stainless steel.

A prediction required for refining for each charge is obtained from the relation between the estimated energization start time, energization end time, charge amount, compounding component, material and estimated power consumption based on the empirical rule for each charge. Calculate the power consumption. The predicted power consumption and the base power required for refining for each charge calculated in FIG. 8 (b) are integrated for a predetermined time in the future to obtain a predicted power consumption of the electric furnace for a predetermined time in the future.

For example, the predicted power consumption required for refining Charge No. E is 4 MW, and the predicted power consumption required for refining Charge No. F is 3 MW. 7MW + electric power required for refining charge No.E to No.F
The base electric energy of the electric furnace is 0 MW = the estimated electric power consumption of 7 MW for 30 minutes from 12:00 to 12:30.

Further, the operation plan for each factory is corrected based on the operation results for each factory that change moment by moment, and based on the corrected operation plan for each factory, the future plan for each factory is similarly set as described above. The power consumption within a predetermined time is predicted with time. By integrating the predicted power consumption of each factory within a predetermined time in the future over time and calculating the predicted total power consumption (D1) of the factory group within a predetermined future time, the total power consumption with high accuracy can be obtained. Can predict.

Based on the predicted power generation amount (D2) of the private power generation facility within a predetermined time in the future and the power purchase contract amount (D3) with the power company, the available power amount (D4 ) To D4
= D2 + D3, and if the available power (D4) is less than the predicted total power consumption (D1) within a predetermined time in the future for the factory group obtained from the power consumption plan for each factory, Based on the load reduction order, the available power of the factory whose load is to be reduced within a predetermined future time is obtained, and the operation plan of the factory is corrected based on the obtained available power within the predetermined future time.

Therefore, if the predicted total power consumption (D1) of the factory group within a predetermined future time exceeds the available power consumption (D4) of the factory group within a predetermined future time, the demand value is corrected by the power company. Notify. If the demand value cannot be corrected, based on a preset factory-specific load reduction order, a power available amount within a predetermined future time of the factory that reduces the load is calculated,
Revise the plant operation plan to reduce the load based on available power. In this case, the lower limit of the available electric power of each factory is the base electric energy. Further, when the predicted total power consumption (D1) of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future falls below the basic power amount value, the correction of the basic power amount value can be accurately notified to the power company.

[0028] For this reason, the predicted total power consumption (D1) of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future does not exceed the demand value, thereby avoiding useless factory stoppage and correcting the demand value or the basic power amount value. Can be accurately notified to the power company, so that a penalty due to exceeding the demand value and unnecessary payment of the basic power charge can be prevented, and the power cost can be reduced.

In the present invention, the power generation amount (D2) of the private power generation equipment within a predetermined time in the future is estimated based on the gas generation amount estimated from the operation plan of the blast furnace or coke oven, based on the gas input amount to the private power generation equipment. Is calculated, and the generated power amount (D2) of the private power generation equipment within a predetermined time in the future is predicted by an empirical rule based on the calculated gas input amount to the private power generation equipment.

FIG. 9 is a schematic explanatory diagram for correcting the operation plan of the hot rolling mill shown in FIG. 7 (a) based on the operation results. For example,
In the previously determined operation plan of the hot-rolled mill shown in FIG. 7 (a), as shown in FIG. 9 (a), the lot No. 24 scheduled to start rolling at 12:14, When rolling is started for one minute, as shown in FIG. 9 (a), the operation plan of the lot No. 24 or later is corrected (for example, the scheduled rolling start time of each lot after the lot No. 24 is delayed by 6 minutes). The expected power consumption required for the rolling shown in FIG. 7 (b) is reviewed as shown in FIG. 9 (b).

In the case where the operation plan of the factory is to be corrected based on the available electric power of the factory, for example, the operation plan of the hot-rolling factory shown in FIG. 7A and the rolling plan shown in FIG. The amount of power required for the hot rolling mill is 28 MW, and if the base power is 20 MW, the power required for rolling is 8 MW, as shown in FIG. The operation plan for lot No. 26 and thereafter is postponed, and the electric power required for rolling shown in FIG. 10 (b) is 7.5 MW.

[0032]

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS FIG. 1 is a system diagram showing a schematic configuration of a method for estimating the power consumption according to the present invention. The operation plan of each of the factories 1a to 1c of the factory group 1 is determined by the operation staff in the operation plan creation units 2a to 2c. The operation plan is corrected based on operation results that are input momentarily from the factories 1a to 1c to the operation plan correction units 3a to 3c. The modified operation plans 4a to 4c are transmitted to the factories 1a to 1c and also to the power consumption prediction units 5a to 5c for each factory. The power consumption prediction units 5a to 5c for each factory predict the predicted power consumption within a predetermined time in the future based on the empirical rules based on the operation plans 4a to 4c, and output the predicted power consumption to the total power consumption prediction unit 6. In addition, the power consumption prediction units 5a to 5c always learn the empirical rules based on the power consumption results from the factories 1a to 1c.

[0033] For example, as shown in Fig. 2 (a), in a hot rolling plant of a steel mill, a hot rolling plant is used based on a one-hour operation plan (lot No. 1 to lot No. 13) determined in advance by operation staff. It is assumed that the power consumption predicting unit calculates the power consumption consumed in the hot rolling mill in one hour as base power 20 MW + power required for rolling 19.2 MW. If the rolling start result of lot No. 8 is input at the time of 20 minutes after the start at the hot rolling mill (in this case, shortening by 5 minutes), the operation plan correction unit will set the rolling start time of lot No. 8 and later. (The rolling start time of the lot No. 8 in the predetermined operation plan)-(the actual rolling start time of the lot No. 8) is advanced by the time difference Δt. In other words, as shown in FIG. 2 (b), the rolling start time after lot No. 8 is (rolling start time tn in the predetermined operation plan) − (time difference Δ
Modified in t). Here, n indicates the lot number. At this time, the operation plan corrected based on the operation results of the hot rolling mill is based on the lot No. 14 in the calculation target time (in this case, within one hour).
Add rolling. The power consumption prediction unit calculates the power consumption consumed at the hot rolling plant in the last hour by 20 MW (base power) + 2
0.9MW (power required for rolling) = 40.9MW.

As shown in FIG. 3A, a one-hour operation plan (lot No. 1 to lot No. 1) determined in advance by the operation staff
Based on 3), it is assumed that the consumed power consumption in the hot rolling mill per hour is calculated as 20 MW (base power) +19.2 MW (power required for rolling) = 39.2 MW based on 3). If the rolling start result of lot No. 5 is input at the time of 20 minutes after the start at the hot rolling mill (in this case, an 8 minute delay), the operation plan correction unit will set the rolling start time after lot No. 5 as (Rolling start time of lot No. 5 in the predetermined operation plan)
(The actual rolling start time of lot No. 5) is delayed by the time difference obtained. That is, as shown in FIG. 3 (b), the rolling start time for lot No. 5 and thereafter is corrected by (rolling start time tn in a predetermined operation plan) + (time difference Δt). In the operation plan corrected based on the operation results of the hot rolling mill at this time, the rolling of lot No. 13 is postponed in the calculation target time (in this case, within one hour). The power consumption forecasting section calculates the power consumption at the hot rolling plant in the last hour as 20MW (base power) + 17.1M
Calculate W (power required for rolling) = 37.1 MW.

The total power consumption prediction unit 6 integrates the predicted power consumptions input from the power consumption prediction units 5a to 5c for each factory, and calculates the predicted power consumption ( D1) is obtained and output to the demand management unit 7. The demand management unit 7 receives the power purchase contract amount (D3) with the power company and the predicted power generation amount (D2) obtained by the self-generated power amount prediction unit 8. The demand management unit 7 calculates an available power amount (D4) of the factory group 1 within a predetermined time in the future based on the predicted generated power amount (D2) and the power purchase contract amount with the power company (D3) (D4 = D3 + D2), and the total power consumption (D1) of factory group 1 within a predetermined time
If 4) is exceeded, the total power consumption (D1) of the factory group 1 and the available power (D4) for a predetermined time in the future is output to the available power calculation unit 9 for each factory.

The available power calculation unit 9 for each factory calculates the available power (D4) and the total power consumption (D1) of the factory group 1 for a predetermined time in the future.
Is input from the demand management unit 7, based on the preset factory-specific load reduction rank 10, based on the factory with the first load reduction rank, for example, the power available amount within a predetermined future time of the A factory 1a, Output to the operation planning section 2a of the factory A 1a. The operation plan unit 2a corrects the operation plan based on the input available electric power within a predetermined time in the future, transmits the corrected operation plan to the A factory 1a, and transmits the corrected electric power plan to the power consumption prediction unit 5a.

For example, the predicted power consumption (D1) of the factory group 1 in the future hour calculated by the total power consumption prediction unit 6 is 319.2 MW,
Hourly power purchase contract amount based on contract with power company
(D3) is assumed to be 160 MW, and the predicted power generation per hour (D2) determined by the private power generation prediction unit 8 is assumed to be 150 MW. Demand management unit 7
Is the amount of power that can be used in factory group 1 in the next hour (D4) = 150 MW + 1
Calculated as 60 MW = 310 MW, and since the estimated power consumption (D1) of factory group 1 in the future hour exceeds 319.2 MW, the available power consumption (D
4) = 310 MW and the estimated power consumption (D1) = 319.2 MW are output to the power available amount calculation unit 9 for each factory. Then, the available power calculation unit 9 for each factory, for example, the load reduction order of the hot rolling mill is the first place, the influence coefficient is 1, if the other factories 0, the factory group 1 excluding the hot rolling mill per hour Assuming that the predicted power consumption (D1) of the hot rolling plant for one hour in the future is 280 MW, the possible power consumption per hour of the hot rolling plant is calculated as 310 MW-280 MW = 30 MW. And
Outputs the possible power consumption = 30 MW to the operation plan correction section of the hot rolling plant.

As shown in FIG. 4 (a), a one-hour operation plan (lot No. 1 to lot No. 1) determined in advance by the operation staff
According to 3), the amount of power consumed at the hot rolling mill per hour is 2
It is assumed that 0 MW (base power) +19.2 MW (power required for rolling) is calculated. According to the operation plan correction section of the hot-rolling plant, the available power consumption per hour that the hot-rolling plant can consume is 30 MW, so as shown in Fig. 4 (b), 20 MW (base power) + 10 MW (rolling Required for rolling).
Modify the operation plan to postpone it on time.

For example, the predicted power consumption (D1) of the factory group 1 in the future one hour obtained by the total power consumption prediction unit 6 is 335.2 MW, and the power purchase contract amount per hour by contract with the power company ( D
3) is assumed to be 160 MW, and the predicted power generation per hour (D2) obtained by the private power generation prediction unit 8 is assumed to be 150 MW. The demand management unit 7
Potential power consumption of factory group 1 for the next hour (D4) = 150 MW + 160 MW
= 310 MW, and the estimated power consumption of factory group 1 in the next hour
(D1) = 335.2 MW exceeds the available power (D4) = 310 MW, so the predicted power consumption (D1) = 335.2 MW and the available power (D
4) Output 310 MW to the available power calculation unit 9 for each factory.

[0040] For example, the power available amount calculation unit 9 according to the factory is configured such that the first place of the load reduction order is the hot rolling mill, the second place is the electric furnace, and the influence coefficient is 0.7 for the hot rolling factory and 0.3 for the electric furnace. Predicted power consumption for the first hour in the future, excluding the hot-rolled mill and electric furnace, is 268 MW, and the predicted power consumption of the hot-rolled mill is 39.2 MW, as shown in Fig. 5 (a). Assuming that the power consumption is 28 MW as shown in Fig. 6 (a), the available power consumption per hour at the hot rolling mill is (310 MW-268 MW) x 0.3 = 12.6 MW, and the electric furnace is used per hour. The possible power is (310MW-268MW) x 0.7 = 29.
Calculate as 4MW. However, the base power of the hot rolling mill is 20MW
Therefore, the available power per hour of the hot rolling mill is 20 MW, and the available power per hour of the electric furnace is 22 MW.
In the hot rolling mill and electric furnace operation plan correction section,
The available power consumption = 20 MW and the available power consumption = 22 MW are output.

As shown in FIG. 5 (a), a one-hour operation plan of the hot rolling mill (lot Nos.
Based on lot No. 13), the power consumption forecasting unit uses 20MW of power consumed at the hot rolling plant per hour (base power)
Suppose that it was calculated as +19.2 MW (power required for rolling). The operation plan correction section of the hot rolling mill reports that the possible power consumption per hour that the hot rolling mill can consume is 20 MW, so as shown in Fig. 5 (b), 20 MW (base power) + 0 MW (for rolling) Required power), and modify the operation plan to postpone the rolling of lot No. 1 and later to the next hour.

On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 6 (a), the one-hour operation schedule of the electric furnace (charge N
oA ~ Charge No.C)
It is assumed that the amount of electric power consumed in the electric furnace in one hour is calculated as 0 MW (base power) +28 MW (power required for refining) = 28 MW. Electric furnace operation plan correction section can be used by the electric furnace1
Since the power consumption per hour is 22 MW, Fig. 6 (b)
As shown in, the operation plan is revised so that refining after charge No. C is postponed to the next hour.

[0043]

The power consumption predicting method according to the present invention can accurately predict the power consumption of the entire factory group, and can accurately determine the power purchase from the power company based on the prediction. Each factory can be stopped accurately by taking measures,
Reduction of power cost, improvement of operation rate of each factory (total number of factory stoppages: 220 times / year, 136 times / year, factory total downtime: 42.1Hr
24.0Hr).

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a system diagram illustrating a schematic configuration of a method for estimating a power consumption according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 shows an example of an operation plan and a case in which the estimated power consumption based on the operation plan is corrected based on the operation results, and
The graph shows the relationship between the operation plan and the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan, and the graph (b) shows the relationship between the operation plan corrected based on the operation results and the predicted power consumption based on the corrected operation plan. is there.

FIG. 3 shows another example in which the operation plan and the estimated power consumption based on the operation plan are corrected based on the operation results.
(a) is a graph showing the relationship between the operation plan and the estimated power consumption based on the operation plan, and (b) is a graph showing the relationship between the operation plan corrected based on the operation results and the predicted power consumption based on the corrected operation plan. It is a graph shown.

FIG. 4 shows an example in which the operation plan and the estimated power consumption based on the operation plan are corrected by the available power, and FIG. 4A shows the relationship between the operation plan and the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan. And (b) is a graph showing the relationship between the operation plan corrected based on the available power consumption and the predicted power consumption based on the corrected operation plan.

FIG. 5 shows another example in which the operation plan and the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan are corrected by the available power, and FIG. 5A shows the operation plan and the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan. (B) is a graph showing the relationship between the operation plan corrected based on the available power consumption and the predicted power consumption based on the corrected operation plan.

FIG. 6 shows an example in which the operation plan and the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan are corrected by the available power consumption, and FIG. 6A shows the relationship between the operation plan and the predicted power consumption based on the operation plan. And (b) is a graph showing the relationship between the operation plan corrected based on the available power consumption and the predicted power consumption based on the corrected operation plan.

FIG. 7 shows a predetermined operation plan of a hot rolling mill and the amount of electric power required for rolling. FIG. 7 (a) is a diagram showing the relationship between time and operation plan, and FIG. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating the relationship with the amount of power used.

FIG. 8 shows a predetermined operation plan of the electric furnace and the amount of electric power required for refining. FIG. 8 (a) shows a relationship between time and operation plan, and FIG. 8 (b) shows time and use required for refining. It is a relation figure with electric energy.

FIG. 9 shows an operation plan obtained by modifying the previously determined operation plan of the hot-rolled mill shown in FIG. 7 (a) based on operation results and the amount of electric power required for rolling, and FIG. The relation diagram with the operation plan, and the diagram (b) is a relation diagram between the time and the corrected power consumption required for rolling.

FIG. 10 shows a previously determined operation plan of the hot-rolled mill shown in FIG. 7 (a) corrected by an available electric power and an operation plan required for rolling, and FIG. 10 (a) shows time and The relationship diagram with the corrected operation plan, and the diagram (b) is a relationship diagram between the time and the corrected amount of power used for rolling.

FIG. 11 discloses a future 40-minute average value of actual power consumption values for the last 20 minutes, for example, disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 55-136832.
It shows an example when the power consumption per minute is estimated,
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a relationship among an actual power consumption amount, a predicted power consumption amount, and a demand value over a period of one minute.

FIG. 12, for example, shows a case in which the power consumption for the future 40 minutes is estimated based on the average value of the actual power consumption for the past 20 minutes before the start of the regular repair, and the time and the actual power consumption for 1 minute. FIG. 6 is a relationship diagram between the amount, the estimated power consumption, and the demand value.

FIG. 13 shows another example of the case where the power consumption for the future 40 minutes is estimated based on the average value of the actual power consumption values for the past 20 minutes during the regular repair, and the time and the 1 minute FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a relationship among an actual power consumption, a predicted power consumption, and a demand value.

FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating a scheduled repair start time and a scheduled repair end time disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. Hei 8-186932, which are determined in advance, and are estimated from the estimated power consumption during the regular repair period learned based on the actual power consumption during the regular repair period. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a case where a predicted power consumption within a predetermined future time is calculated, and is a relationship diagram of a time, an actual power consumption for one minute, a predicted power consumption, and a demand value.

[Explanation of symbols]

 1 Plant group 1a, 1b, 1c Each plant 2a, 2b, 2c Operation plan creation unit 3a, 3b, 3c Operation plan correction unit 4a, 4b, 4c Operation plan 5a, 5b, 5c Power consumption prediction unit 6 Total power consumption Forecasting section 7 Demand management section 8 Self-generated power amount forecasting section 9 Power available amount calculation section for each factory 10 Load reduction order by factory

Claims (2)

[Claims] [Claim 1] An operation plan for each factory input in advance is
Based on the operating results that change from moment to moment for each factory, the power consumption within a predetermined time in the future for each factory is predicted based on the revised operation plan, and the predicted power consumption for each factory is changed over time. A method for predicting power consumption, wherein the total power consumption is integrated into a total predicted power consumption within a predetermined time in the future for a group of factories. 2. Based on a predicted power generation amount (D2) of the private power generation facility within a predetermined time in the future and a power purchase contract amount (D3) with a power company, an available power amount of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future. (D4)
Is calculated, and the predicted power consumption (D1) of the factory group within a predetermined time in the future calculated from the predicted power consumption for each factory is the available power consumption.
If (D4) is exceeded, the available power consumption of the factory whose load is to be reduced within a predetermined time in the future is calculated based on the predetermined load reduction order for each factory, and the operation of the factory is performed based on the available power usage within the predetermined time in the future. A method of estimating power consumption, comprising modifying a plan.