CN106463959A - Power Demand And Supply Guidance Device And Power Demand And Supply Guidance Method - Google Patents
Power Demand And Supply Guidance Device And Power Demand And Supply Guidance Method Download PDFInfo
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- CN106463959A CN106463959A CN201580025534.2A CN201580025534A CN106463959A CN 106463959 A CN106463959 A CN 106463959A CN 201580025534 A CN201580025534 A CN 201580025534A CN 106463959 A CN106463959 A CN 106463959A
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims description 64
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 110
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 9
- 238000012800 visualization Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 9
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 53
- 238000010438 heat treatment Methods 0.000 claims description 14
- 238000005096 rolling process Methods 0.000 claims description 13
- 230000002123 temporal effect Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000005098 hot rolling Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 239000000284 extract Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000009628 steelmaking Methods 0.000 abstract 4
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 description 44
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 21
- 239000002994 raw material Substances 0.000 description 13
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 12
- 238000009825 accumulation Methods 0.000 description 9
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 9
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 description 8
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000007796 conventional method Methods 0.000 description 5
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000008439 repair process Effects 0.000 description 4
- 230000033764 rhythmic process Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 description 4
- 238000001816 cooling Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000000605 extraction Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000009471 action Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000007812 deficiency Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 description 2
- -1 (below Substances 0.000 description 1
- PEDCQBHIVMGVHV-UHFFFAOYSA-N Glycerine Chemical compound OCC(O)CO PEDCQBHIVMGVHV-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
- 229910000831 Steel Inorganic materials 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013213 extrapolation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000977 initiatory effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000003801 milling Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000004065 semiconductor Substances 0.000 description 1
- 239000010959 steel Substances 0.000 description 1
Classifications
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- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B19/00—Programme-control systems
- G05B19/02—Programme-control systems electric
- G05B19/418—Total factory control, i.e. centrally controlling a plurality of machines, e.g. direct or distributed numerical control [DNC], flexible manufacturing systems [FMS], integrated manufacturing systems [IMS] or computer integrated manufacturing [CIM]
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/12—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load
- H02J3/14—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load by switching loads on to, or off from, network, e.g. progressively balanced loading
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2310/00—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load
- H02J2310/50—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load for selectively controlling the operation of the loads
- H02J2310/54—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load for selectively controlling the operation of the loads according to a pre-established time schedule
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B70/00—Technologies for an efficient end-user side electric power management and consumption
- Y02B70/30—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for improving the carbon footprint of the management of residential or tertiary loads, i.e. smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the buildings sector, including also the last stages of power distribution and the control, monitoring or operating management systems at local level
- Y02B70/3225—Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B90/00—Enabling technologies or technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
- Y02B90/20—Smart grids as enabling technology in buildings sector
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/02—Total factory control, e.g. smart factories, flexible manufacturing systems [FMS] or integrated manufacturing systems [IMS]
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/80—Management or planning
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
- Y04S20/20—End-user application control systems
- Y04S20/222—Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving
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Abstract
Provided is a power demand and supply guidance device (200), wherein: a production plan obtaining unit (221) obtains a production plan of a manufacturing plant that belongs to a steelmaking plant; a power estimation unit (222) calculates an estimated power amount which is an electric power amount estimated to be used in each manufacturing plant on a time-series basis on the basis of the obtained production plan, and totals the estimated electric power amounts of the manufacturing plants to calculate an estimated power amount of the whole steelmaking plant; a generated/purchased power amount determination unit (223) determines a generated power amount to be self-generated, a purchased power amount to be purchased from an electric power utility company, and a production reduction rate on the basis of the estimated power amount of the whole steelmaking plant and the estimated power amounts of the manufacturing plants; a visualization unit (225) displays time series variations of the estimated power amounts of the manufacturing plants, the estimated power amount of the whole steelmaking plant, the generated power amount, the purchased power amount, and the production reduction rate on a monitor (263); and an alarm notification unit (224) makes an alarm notification of production reduction.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the power supply and demand guiding device being predicted using amount of power in iron-smelter and power supply and demand
Guidance method.
Background technology
In the past, ironmaking enterprise substantial amounts of electric power required aborning was by using the generating equipment being in iron-smelter
Oneself generating (below, generating electricity) and buy (below, buying electricity) this 2 methods to provide from electric power enterprise.Wherein, with regard to
The electric power bought from electric power enterprise, buys contract based on the electric power concluded between ironmaking enterprise and electric power enterprise, to determine every
The maximum of such as 1 hour stipulated time.If the amount of power bought from electric power enterprise exceedes contract maximum, ironmaking enterprise to
Electric power enterprise pays huge penalty, and electric power enterprise needs to envision above generating/transmission of electricity load, for both sides without
Ji.Therefore, in iron-smelter, it is mostly by predicting increasing oneself generated energy using electric power or reducing factory of each factory
Output, is higher than contract demand amount to avoid buying electricity.
Patent document 1 is recorded to the technology being predicted using amount of power in iron-smelter.In the art, close
In check repair during (during periodical repair), generally operate when, periodical repair/at the end of, calculated in advance according to past actual achievement data
The time sequence model (electric load pattern) of the amount of power of each factory in iron-smelter, according to this time sequence model with the future
The use amount of power to calculate each moment for the periodical repair planning data.The electricity overall thereby, it is possible to time-sequentially predict iron-smelter
Strength.
Citation
Patent document
Patent document 1：Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 8-186932 publication
Content of the invention
Invention problem to be solved
However, in the technology that patent document 1 is recorded, needing electric load pattern when giving usual operation in advance.Cause
This, with regard to the rolling factory being used amount of power significantly to change according to output, there are output variation significantly
Change time and predict the problem of deviation.
The present invention makes in view of the foregoing, even if its object is to provide a kind of variation in output significantly to become
The time changed is it is also possible to accurately predict power supply and demand guiding device and the power supply and demand of amount of power used in iron-smelter
Guidance method.
For solving the scheme of problem
In order to solve above-mentioned problem, realize purpose, the power supply and demand guiding device of the present invention is characterised by possessing：
Production schedule acquisition unit, in the manufacturing works belonging to iron-smelter, obtains the production schedule of product；Power prediction unit, base
In the acquired described production schedule, calculate the prediction electric power predicting the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence
Amount, the prediction amount of power of the described each manufacturing works calculating is added and calculates the overall prediction amount of power of iron-smelter；Generating is bought
Electricity determining means, based on the prediction amount of power of the overall prediction amount of power of described iron-smelter and each manufacturing works, determines oneself
The generation power amount generating electricity, the output reduction ratio buying electric amount of power, product bought from electric power enterprise；Visualization,
By prediction amount of power overall to the prediction amount of power of described each manufacturing works, described iron-smelter, described generation power amount, described buy
The time series variation of electric amount of power and described output reduction ratio is shown in monitor；And alert notification unit, for life
The content of production cutback carries out alert notification.
In addition, the power supply and demand guiding device of the present invention is characterised by, described production schedule acquisition unit obtains hot rolling
Plan extracted out by the heating furnace of factory, and described power prediction unit extracts plan out based on the heating furnace obtaining, using hot rolling electric power type,
Calculate the prediction electric power predicting the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence.
In addition, the power supply and demand guidance method of the present invention is characterised by, including：Production schedule acquisition step, is belonging to
In the manufacturing works of iron-smelter, obtain the production schedule of product；Power prediction step, based on the acquired described production schedule,
Calculate the prediction amount of power predicting the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence, by the described each manufacturing works calculating
Prediction amount of power be added and calculate the overall prediction amount of power of iron-smelter；Electricity deciding step is bought in generating, based on described ironmaking
The overall prediction amount of power of factory and the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works, determine the generation power amount of oneself generating, from electric power enterprise
What industry was bought buys the output reduction ratio of electric amount of power, product；Visualization step, by the prediction electric power of described each manufacturing works
The overall prediction amount of power of amount, described iron-smelter, described generation power amount, described buy electric amount of power and ratio cut down by described output
The time series variation of example is shown in monitor；And alert notification step, for output cut down content carry out alert notification.
Invention effect
According to the present invention, though output time of significantly changing of variation it is also possible to accurately prediction ironmaking
The amount of power that factory uses.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram of the schematic configuration of power network representing the application present invention.
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of the schematic configuration of power supply and demand guiding device representing one embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the figure of the data structure example relevant with the production schedule representing present embodiment.
Fig. 4 is the figure of the data structure example with electrical representing present embodiment.
Fig. 5 is to represent the flow chart that the power supply and demand of present embodiment instructs processing order.
Fig. 6 is to represent that the flow chart that electricity determines processing order is bought in the generating of present embodiment.
Fig. 7 is the explanatory diagram of the effect for embodiment is described.
Fig. 8 is the figure representing the conventional predicated error of the amount of power of method.
Fig. 9 is the figure of the predicated error of the amount of power representing this method.
Figure 10 is that electricity is bought in the accumulation representing 25 minutes of conventional 35 minutes time points of method (60 minutes time points) afterwards
The figure of that instructs picture of predicted value.
Figure 11 is that the pre- of electricity is bought in the accumulation of 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points representing this method (60 minutes time points) afterwards
The figure of that instructs picture of measured value.
Figure 12 is to represent that the figure of that instructs picture of the actual achievement value of electricity is bought in the accumulation of 60 minutes time points.
Specific embodiment
Hereinafter, referring to the drawings, power supply and demand guiding device and the power supply and demand of one embodiment of the present invention are described in detail
Guidance is processed.It should be noted that to limit the present invention not over this embodiment.And, in the record of accompanying drawing, for
Mark same label to represent with a part.
[structure of power network]
First, with reference to Fig. 1, illustrate to apply the structure of the power network 101 of the present invention.As shown in figure 1, power network 101 includes
Power network 102 in iron-smelter, power transmission line 103, manufacturing works (A factory 104, B factory 105), other need source 106, in factory
Power plant 107, energy management facility 108 and electric power enterprise generating factory 109.A factory 104, B factory 105, other need source
106th, in factory, power plant 107 and energy management facility 108 belong to the power network 102 in iron-smelter.A factory 104 and B factory 105
Specifically represent the relevant factory of the manufacture with steel products of rolling factory or Zhi Gang factory etc..Other need source 106 to have
Represent for body that the electric power beyond the manufacturing works such as office needs source.In factory, power plant 107 specifically represents and make use of factory
Interior thermal power plant producing gas etc..Energy management facility 108 is served as to be needed from A factory 104, B factory 105 and other electric power
Want the decision of grasp that the electric power in source 106 needs and trnamission capacity distribution, the electric power amount instruction in power plant 107 and the actual achievement palm in factory
The instruction of amount of power hold, bought from electric power enterprise generating factory 109 and actual achievement are grasped.A factory 104, B factory 105, other needs
In source 106, factory, power plant 107, energy management facility 108 and electric power enterprise generating factory 109 are connected by power transmission line 103.
A factory 104, B factory 105 and other need source 106 consume via power transmission line 103 accept electric power.Here, A work
Factory 104 and B factory 105 by electric power in order to be utilized based on production schedule manufacture (production) product.
The electric power that in factory, power plant 107, electric power enterprise generating factory 109 generate electricity via power transmission line 103 supply.But, in factory
Power plant 107 is only capable of carrying out depending on the generating producing the heat that gas has in factory, therefore in each time-bands, maximum power amount
Being restricted, additionally, increasing instruction to the actual increase of supply electric power from making generated energy, need to rely on generating equipment
The time of dynamic characteristic.And, it is provided between ironmaking enterprise and electric power enterprise from the amount of power that electric power enterprise generating factory 109 sends
The contract maximum power amount concluded.
[structure of power supply and demand guiding device]
Next, with reference to Fig. 2, illustrating to be applied to the knot of the power supply and demand guiding device 200 of power network 101 as described above
Structure.As shown in Fig. 2 in power supply and demand guiding device 200, arithmetic processing section 220, ROM230, RAM240, transacter
261st, database (DB) 262, monitor 263 and input unit 264 can be via the drive access being in apparatus main body 210
250 carry out data transmit-receive.
In addition, transacter 261 can be via drive access 265 and A plant server 271, B plant server
272 and energy management strategy device 273 carry out data transmission.Here, A plant server 271 keeps the A being arranged in A factory 104
The operation planning of factory and operation actual achievement.B plant server 272 remains set at the operation planning of the B factory in B factory 105
And operation actual achievement.Energy management strategy device 273 is arranged at energy management facility 108.
Apparatus main body 210 is realized using the general information processor such as personal computer or work station, including computing
Processing unit 220, ROM230, RAM240.
Arithmetic processing section 220 is passed through the hardware such as CPU and is realized.The journey based on storage in ROM230 for this arithmetic processing section 220
Sequence or data, display signal to monitor 263 output, the operation signal from input unit 264 input, obtain from DB262
Various information etc., carry out, to constituting the instruction in each portion of power supply and demand guiding device 200 or the transmission of data etc., controlling blanketly
The action of power supply and demand guiding device 200 entirety.This arithmetic processing section 220 plays a role as each portion as follows：Count as producing
Draw the production schedule obtaining section 221 of acquisition unit；Power prediction portion 222 as power prediction unit；Buy electricity as generating
Electricity determination section 223 is bought in the generating of determining means；Alert notification portion 224 as alert notification unit；As visualization
Visualization portion 225.
Being stored with ROM230 makes power supply and demand guiding device 200 action and is used for realizing this power supply and demand guiding device
The program of 200 various functions possessing, data used in the execution of these programs etc..And, it is stored with and make calculation process
Portion 220 as production schedule obtaining section 221, power prediction portion 222, generate electricity buy electricity determination section 223, alert notification portion 224, can
Play a role depending on change portion 225 and instruct, for executing power supply and demand described later, the power supply and demand tutorial program 231 processing.
RAM240 is the semiconductor memory using as the operation memory of arithmetic processing section 220, possesses temporarily
The memory area of data etc. used in the program of holding arithmetic processing section 220 execution, its execution.
Monitor 263 passes through the display device such as LCD, EL display, CRT monitor and realizes, to input from apparatus main body 210
Display signal and based on the display signal of input unit 264 input showing various pictures.Input unit 264 passes through example
Realize as input units such as keyboard, mouse, touch panel, various switches, corresponding signal will be inputted to device master with operation
Body 210 and monitor 263 export.
Transacter 261 is by possessing arithmetic unit, main storage means, hard disk or the various storage medium of CPU etc.
Known server computer or work station, individual Deng auxilary unit, communicator, display device, input unit etc.
The all-purpose computers such as computer are realized.This transacter 261 carry out from A plant server 271, B plant server 272 and
The data with regard to the production schedule or electric power collected by energy management strategy device 273 and the data registry to DB262 registration is managed.
Specifically, transacter 261 collects the system of the product being manufactured by A factory 104 from A plant server 271
Make numbering, manufacture start time, the finish time of manufacture, become product raw material numbering (below, raw material numbering) of raw material,
(below, product is special for the physical characteristic that physical characteristic (below, raw material characteristics) that raw material have, production code member, product have
Property), to DB262 registration.And, transacter 261 collects, from B plant server 272, the product being manufactured by B factory 105
Manufacture numbering, manufacture start time, manufacture finish time, raw material numbering, raw material characteristics, production code member, product performance,
To DB262 registration.And, transacter 261 collects the use amount of power of A factory 104 from energy management strategy device 273
The use amount of power (actual achievement) of (actual achievement), B factory 105, other electric power need the use amount of power (actual achievement) in source 106, send out in factory
The generated energy actual achievement (below, generation power amount in factory) of power plant 107 and possible maximum (below, the maximum generation electric power that generates electricity
Amount), the amount of power actual achievement (below, buying electric amount of power) that sends to iron-smelter power network 102 from electric power enterprise generating factory 109 and contract
About maximum power amount (below, maximum buys electric amount of power), to DB262 registration.
DB262 is the storage device of the data that accumulation (holding) is collected by transacter 261, by per certain time
Data is collected/registers/more newly arrives and construct.DB262 keeps the data with regard to the production schedule of Fig. 3 illustration and Fig. 4 to illustrate
The data with regard to electric power.It should be noted that the prediction amount of power in the data with regard to the production schedule shown in Fig. 3 is by aftermentioned
Power supply and demand guidance process calculate and register.And, the total amount of power in the data with regard to electric power shown in Fig. 4, deficiency
Amount of power and subtraction rate are processed by power supply and demand guidance described later and calculate and register.And, mode of priority refers in electric power
Preferential supply method in the case of amount deficiency, electrical generation priority, buys that electricity is any one of preferential to be predetermined with regard to each time-bands
And register.
[power supply and demand guidance process]
Next, explanation power supply and demand guidance is processed.Fig. 5 is to represent that arithmetic processing section 220 is carried out in apparatus main body 210
Power supply and demand instruct process processing order flow chart.Power supply and demand guiding device 200 is entered by transacter 261
The above-mentioned data registry of row is managed and arithmetic processing section 220 carries out power supply and demand according to the processing order of Fig. 5 and instructs process next real
Apply power supply and demand guidance method.It should be noted that power supply and demand instructs to process to read by arithmetic processing section 220 being stored in
The power supply and demand tutorial program 231 of ROM230 simultaneously executes and realizes.This power supply and demand instructs and processes in arithmetic processing section 220 from defeated
Enter device 264 and receive the time point of computing initiation command to start.
First, in the process of step S501, production schedule obtaining section 221 obtains the production schedule being stored in DB262.
That is, production schedule obtaining section 221 is with regard to after from current time to the following stipulated time (in the present embodiment, such as following 2
After hour) the predetermined product that manufactured by each manufacturing works (A factory 104, B factory 105), from DB262 obtain manufacture numbering,
Manufacture start time, manufacture finish time, raw material numbering, raw material characteristics, production code member, the data of product performance.
In addition, as recorded in Fig. 2, as the other form obtaining the production schedule in the process of step S501, raw
Producing plan obtaining section 221 can also be from the process computer 281 of the next setting in A plant server 271 via (not shown)
Gateway obtains the production schedule with some cycles (in the present embodiment, such as 1 minute cycle).Process computer 281 is from setting
The A plant server 271 being positioned in an up receives the production schedule, adds to the production schedule receiving and manufactures progress or from operation
The correcting value of person, the production time after calibration sends the computer manufacturing instruction to manufacturing equipment 282.That is, from process meter
The manufacture instruction of calculation machine 281 is unanimous on the whole with actual manufacturing time, therefore, it is possible to obtain the more accurately production schedule.Need
Bright, such process computer 281 can also be arranged at B plant server 272, also can carry out same in this case
Process.
For example, process computer 281 may be constructed to be taken out as to the slab from heating furnace taking rolling factory as a example
Go out the rolling rhythm computer that spacing is controlled.Course of hot rolling is set until batching via milling train, cooling device by from heating furnace
Standby a series of equipment is constituted, described rolling rhythm computer obtain the rolling of the slab extracted out from heating furnace, cooling,
The development situation batching, based on this progress information, prediction for from now on from heating furnace extract out predetermined slab from plus
Hot stove is extracted out via rolling, cooling up to the time batched needed for completing, the time based on prediction and the correction from operator
Measuring to the production schedule obtaining from host computer (plant server) is that heating furnace extraction plan applies correction.And, roll
The time that plan extracted out by heating furnace after according to correction for the tempo calculation machine sends slab extraction instruction to heating furnace.In step
In the case that the process of S501 employs rolling rhythm computer, production schedule obtaining section 221 obtains described up-to-date after correcting
Heating furnace extract out plan.
Next, in the process of step S502, power prediction portion 222 (in present embodiment, was set to per stipulated time
Such as 1 minute track) predict 2 hours futures required amount of power till afterwards using following method.That is, power prediction portion
222 firstly for following 2 hours afterwards till each predetermined product manufacturing, by with the raw material characteristics of this product and product
Product characteristic is that the function f that represents of following formula (1) of input variable manufactures, to predict, the amount of power using.
[mathematical expression 1]
Manufacture use amount of power=f (raw material characteristics 1, raw material characteristics 2 ..., product performance 1, product performance 2) ... (1)
For example, function f is specifically constituted as following formula (2) taking rolling factory as a example.
[mathematical expression 2]
P (i)=a × w (i) × k (i) β × log (H (i)/h (i)) ... (2)
Wherein,
p(i)：The amount of power manufacturing use of hot rolling loop product i
w(i)：The raw-material weight of product i
k(i)：The product hardness of product i
H(i)：The material stock thickness of product i
h(i)：The product thickness of product i
α、β：Depend on the regulation coefficient of the manufacturing environments such as rolling equipment
The amount of power (prediction amount of power) using that manufactures of each product calculating is write by power prediction portion 222 as shown in Figure 3
Enter the data logger with regard to the production schedule of DB262.
And, power prediction portion 222 is according to the production schedule of each manufacturing works as shown in Figure 3 and prediction amount of power
Data, calculated and predicts the amount of power (prediction amount of power) that each manufacturing works use with every 1 minute using following formula (3).
[mathematical expression 3]
Pt=∑ i (p (i) × c (i))+γ ... (3)
Wherein,
pt：The prediction amount of power of moment t～t+1
p(i)：Product i manufactures the amount of power using
c(i)：Manufacture the ratio of the time of product i in moment t～t+1
i：Manufacture predetermined production code member in moment t～t+1
γ：The basic amount of power of manufacturing equipment idle running etc.
In addition, power prediction portion 222 from the moon and round the clock as keyword 12 × 2 two-dimensional look-up table retrieve each time-bands
Other need source 106 need amount of power.The value of this look-up table is the mean value being calculated based on past actual achievement data.
Power prediction portion 222 is by the electric power of the amount of power (using amount of power) of the A factory 104 in each moment obtained above, B factory 105
Amount (amount of power is used) and other need source 106 amount of power (amount of power is used) aggregate values as the overall amount of power of factory
The predicted value of (total amount of power).And, power prediction portion 222 calculates and deducts maximum generation amount of power and from amounting to amount of power
Buy greatly not enough amount of power obtained from electric amount of power.Finally, power prediction portion 222 is by the A factory 104 of each time-bands calculating
Amount of power, the amount of power of B factory 105, other need the amount of power in source 106, amount to amount of power and not enough amount of power is as shown in Figure 4
The data logger with regard to electric power of write DB262.
It should be noted that in step S501, using described rolling rhythm computer, production schedule obtaining section 221
In the case of obtaining the up-to-date heating furnace extraction plan after correction, in step S502, power prediction portion 222 is based on this heating
Plan extracted out by stove, using the hot rolling electric power type shown in above-mentioned formula (1)～(3), calculates and predicts each manufacturing works in temporal sequence
The prediction electric power of the amount of power using.
Next, in the process of step S503, generate electricity and buy electricity determination section 223 and carry out generating and buy electricity decision processing,
Described generating buy electricity determine to process for each time-bands of every 1 minute determine following 2 hours afterwards till generation power amount
With the distribution buying electric amount of power.Specifically, generate electricity and buy electricity determination section 223 to hold according to the order of the flow chart shown in Fig. 6
Row generating is bought electricity decision and is processed.That is, generating buys electricity determination section 223 amounting to amount of power is maximum generation amount of power and maximum
Buy below electric amount of power sum (S601 is "Yes") and mode of priority is electrical generation priority (step S602 is "Yes") and amounts to electricity
Strength is in the case of below maximum generation amount of power (step S603 is "Yes"), generation power amount is set to and amounts to amount of power
Identical value, will buy electric amount of power and be set to 0 (step S604).Thus, the process of step S503 completes, and power supply and demand guidance is processed
Enter the process of step S504.
In the process of step S503, amount to amount of power be maximum generation amount of power and maximum buy electric amount of power sum with
Under (step S601 be "Yes") and mode of priority be electrical generation priority (step S602 is "Yes") and amount to amount of power and send out than maximum
In the case that electric amount of power is big (step S603 is "No"), generating is bought electricity determination section 223 and is set to and maximum generation power amount
Generation power amount identical value, will buy electric amount of power and be set to deduct value obtained from maximum generation amount of power from total amount of power
(step S605).Thus, the process of step S503 completes, and power supply and demand instructs process to enter the process of step S504.
In the process of step S503, amount to amount of power be maximum generation amount of power and maximum buy electric amount of power sum with
Under (step S601 be "Yes") and mode of priority be to buy electricity preferential (step S602 is "No") and amount to amount of power and buy for maximum
In the case of below electric amount of power (step S606 be "Yes"), generating electricity to buy electricity determination section 223 and will buy electric amount of power is set to always
Meter amount of power identical value, generation power amount is set to 0 (step S607).Thus, the process of step S503 completes, power supply and demand
Process is instructed to enter the process of step S504.
In the process of step S503, amount to amount of power be maximum generation amount of power and maximum buy electric amount of power sum with
Under (step S601 be "Yes") and mode of priority be to buy electricity preferential (step S602 is "No") and amount to amount of power and buy than maximum
(step S606 be "No") in the case that electric amount of power is big, generate electricity buy electricity determination section 223 will buy electric amount of power be set to maximum
Buy electric amount of power identical value, generation power amount is set to deduct maximum and buy value obtained from electric amount of power from amounting to amount of power
(step S608).Thus, the process of step S503 completes, and power supply and demand instructs process to enter the process of step S504.
In the process of step S503, do not meet above any one, amount to amount of power than maximum generation amount of power with
Maximum buy electric amount of power sum big in the case of (step S601 be "No"), generate electricity and buy electricity determination section 223 by generation power amount
It is set to and maximum generation amount of power identical value, electric amount of power will be bought and be set to buy electric amount of power identical value (step with maximum
S609).And, generating is bought electricity determination section 223 and is set to deduct maximum generation amount of power from total amount of power by not enough amount of power
Buy value obtained from electric amount of power with maximum, underproduction rate (output reduction ratio) is set to not enough amount of power divided by predetermined
The use amount of power of the factory of underproduction candidate obtained from be worth (step S610).And, alert notification portion 224 waits for the underproduction
The server of factory mended and monitor 263, send the alert notification (step S611) of the content notifying output to cut down.By
This, the process of step S503 completes, and power supply and demand instructs process to enter the process of step S504.
It should be noted that visualization portion 225 is by the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works calculating as previously discussed, total
Amount of power, generation power amount, buy electric amount of power, the time series variation of underproduction rate exports to monitor 263.
In the process of step S504, arithmetic processing section 220 is not receiving calculation process stopping life from input unit 264
(step S504 is "No"), the place of (tens seconds～dozens of minutes interval) return to step S501 at a certain time interval during order
Manage and repeat the process until S503.Arithmetic processing section 220 is ceased and desisted order receiving calculation process from input unit 264
In the case of (step S504 be "Yes"), terminate a series of power supply and demand guidance and process.
Fig. 4 illustrates that value 100 on the basis of the amount of power of certain time point (MWh) enters the embodiment that row index (dimension is 1) is changed.
For example, 00 point and 00 second when 1 day 10 March in 2000, the use amount of power of A factory 104 is the use electric power of 100, B factory 105
Measure as 150, other need the use amount of power in source 106 is 100, and amounting to amount of power is 350.Now, mode of priority is excellent for buying electricity
First, maximum buys electric amount of power is 260, therefore needs guidance to process by electric power, and the generation power amount in factory that calculates is 100, buys electricity
Amount of power is 260.
In addition, when 1 day 11 March in 2000 30 points 00 second, the use amount of power of A factory 104 is 120, B factory 105
Using amount of power be 110, other need source 106 use amount of power be 100, amount to amount of power be 330.Now, maximum generation
Amount of power is 150, and it is 150 that maximum buys electric amount of power, and the generation power amount in factory that therefore calculates is 150, and buying electric amount of power is 150,
Not enough amount of power is 30, and the underproduction rate as the A factory 104 of underproduction candidate is 25%.
More than, as described in explanation, the power supply and demand guidance of the power supply and demand guiding device according to present embodiment is processed, base
To predict the amount of power of each factory in the production schedule, though therefore the output sudden turn of events time it is also possible to accurately predict
Amount of power.Buy electricity therefore, it is possible to prevent from exceeding contract demand amount, be prevented from that penalty pays etc. is uneconomical.And, calculate
Go out according to buy electricity and generate electricity priority generation power amount, buy electric amount of power, output cut down ratio, can by they to
The operator of each manufacturing works and energy management facility carries out Operating Guideline.Therefore, it may have prevent the generating of surplus from causing
Cost of electricity-generating increases and producing of surplus cuts down the effect that the productivity causing is lost.
This concludes the description of the embodiment of the invention that application is made by present inventor, but not over based on this reality
The description of a part for the disclosure of the invention that the mode of applying is made and accompanying drawing are limiting the present invention.Namely be based on present embodiment, lead to
Cross the model that other embodiments, embodiment and application technology that those skilled in the art etc. make etc. is all contained in the present invention
Farmland.
[embodiment]
Next, with reference to Fig. 7, the effect of present embodiment is described.Fig. 7 is to represent the power network 101 with Fig. 1 record
The actual achievement value of total amount of power of iron-smelter and the change of predicted value, the output of each manufacturing works (A factory 104, B factory 105)
The figure changed.The stage casing coordinate diagram and hypomere coordinate diagram of Fig. 7 understand, between moment t-1 and t as boundary, A factory 104 and B work
The output of factory 105 suddenly increases.In the present embodiment, the time between this moment t-1 and t, processed using power supply and demand guidance
Predict amount of power.
In conventional method, the method that carries out extrapolation using rolling average of total amount of power by tightly front actual achievement etc.
Prediction amount of power, therefore as shown in the dotted line that the epimere coordinate diagram of Fig. 7 represents, the amount of power being predicted as moment t, t+1 compares the moment
T-1 reduces.However, actual production increases, therefore as shown by the solid line, amount of power increases, and prediction significantly deviates.
On the other hand, the power supply and demand guidance according to present embodiment is processed, and arithmetic processing section 220 is carried out and output
Increase corresponding amount of power prediction, therefore it is known that having obtained than conventional method as shown in the dotted line of the epimere coordinate diagram of Fig. 7
Predicted value is closer to the predicted value of actual achievement value.
In addition, as shown in figure 8, the predicated error of the demand of conventional method is σ 4.6MWh, but as shown in figure 9,
The predicated error of this method is σ 1.7MWh.Thus will also realize that, this method predicated error compared with the past reduce, obtain close to
The predicted value of actual achievement value.It should be noted that the longitudinal axis of the coordinate diagram shown in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 is the predicted value of amount of power, transverse axis is
The actual achievement value of amount of power, the R in coordinate diagram2It is the coefficient of determination.
Figure 10～Figure 12 is buy electricity one that instructs picture, and the longitudinal axis is that electricity is bought in accumulation, and transverse axis is the time.Conventional
Method in, as shown in Figure 10, power quantity predicting is bought in the accumulation of (60 minutes time points) afterwards in 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points is
77MWh.Therefore, the accumulation of conventional method 60 shown in Figure 12 minute time point is bought compared with actual achievement value 90MWh of electricity, exists
The error of 13MWh.On the other hand, in the method, as shown in figure 11, by 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points afterwards (when 60 minutes
Point) accumulation to buy power quantity predicting be 96MWh, be 6MWh with the error of actual achievement value.Even if thus, it can be known that buying the pre- of electricity in accumulation
In survey, this method predicated error compared with the past also reduces, and can obtain the predicted value close to actual achievement value.
It should be noted that in the above-described embodiments, to have the electric power as object for 2 manufacturing works recording with Fig. 1
It is illustrated as a example the iron-smelter of net, but the invention is not limited in this it is also possible to be applied to the manufacture work with more than 3
Factory is the power network of object.
Industrial applicibility
As previously discussed, the power supply and demand guiding device of the present invention and power supply and demand guidance method can accurately be predicted
The amount of power that iron-smelter uses, therefore, it is possible to be applied to the iron-smelter possessing generating equipment.
Label declaration
101 power network
Power network in 102 iron-smelters
103 power transmission lines
104 A factories
105 B factories
106 other need source
Power plant in 107 factories
108 energy management facilities
109 electric power enterprise generating factories
200 power supply and demand guiding devices
210 apparatus main bodies
220 arithmetic processing section
221 production schedule obtaining sections
222 power prediction portions
223 generate electricity buys electricity determination section
224 alert notification portions
225 visualization portions
230 ROM
231 power supply and demand tutorial programs
240 RAM
250 drive access
261 transacters
262 databases (DB)
263 monitors
264 input units
265 drive access
271 A plant server
272 B plant server
273 energy management strategy devices
281 process computers
282 manufacturing equipments
Claims (3)
1. a kind of power supply and demand guiding device is it is characterised in that possess：
Production schedule acquisition unit, in the manufacturing works belonging to iron-smelter, obtains the production schedule of product；
Power prediction unit, based on the acquired described production schedule, calculates and predicts the use of each manufacturing works in temporal sequence
Amount of power prediction amount of power, the prediction amount of power of the described each manufacturing works calculating is added and to calculate iron-smelter overall
Prediction amount of power；
Electricity determining means is bought in generating, the prediction electric power based on the overall prediction amount of power of described iron-smelter and each manufacturing works
Amount, determines oneself the generation power amount generating electricity, the output reduction ratio buying electric amount of power, product bought from electric power enterprise；
Visualization, by prediction amount of power overall to the prediction amount of power of described each manufacturing works, described iron-smelter, described
Electric amount of power, described buy electric amount of power and described output and cut down the time series variation of ratio be shown in monitor；And
Alert notification unit, the content cut down for output carries out alert notification.
2. power supply and demand guiding device according to claim 1 it is characterised in that
Plan extracted out by the heating furnace that described production schedule acquisition unit obtains rolling factory,
Described power prediction unit extracts plan out based on the heating furnace obtaining, and using hot rolling electric power type, calculates pre- in temporal sequence
The prediction electric power of the amount of power that Ce Liaoge manufacturing works use.
3. a kind of power supply and demand guidance method is it is characterised in that include：
Production schedule acquisition step, in the manufacturing works belonging to iron-smelter, obtains the production schedule of product；
Power prediction step, based on the acquired described production schedule, calculates and predicts the use of each manufacturing works in temporal sequence
Amount of power prediction amount of power, the prediction amount of power of the described each manufacturing works calculating is added and to calculate iron-smelter overall
Prediction amount of power；
Electricity deciding step is bought in generating, the prediction electric power based on the overall prediction amount of power of described iron-smelter and each manufacturing works
Amount, determines oneself the generation power amount generating electricity, the output reduction ratio buying electric amount of power, product bought from electric power enterprise；
Visualization step, by prediction amount of power overall to the prediction amount of power of described each manufacturing works, described iron-smelter, described
Electric amount of power, described buy electric amount of power and described output and cut down the time series variation of ratio be shown in monitor；And
Alert notification step, the content cut down for output carries out alert notification.
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| JP2014-103418 | 2014-05-19 | ||
| JP2014103418 | 2014-05-19 | ||
| PCT/JP2015/063665 WO2015178256A1 (en) | 2014-05-19 | 2015-05-12 | Power demand and supply guidance device and power demand and supply guidance method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110546842A (en) * | 2017-06-14 | 2019-12-06 | 株式会社日立制作所 | energy management device and method, energy management system, and operation planning method for energy management system |
| CN111367169A (en) * | 2020-02-07 | 2020-07-03 | 大连富士冰山智控系统有限公司 | Control system, control device, and control method |
| CN113330468A (en) * | 2019-01-21 | 2021-08-31 | 杰富意钢铁株式会社 | Design support method for metal material, generation method for prediction model, manufacturing method for metal material, and design support device |
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| JP2000217253A (en) * | 1999-01-19 | 2000-08-04 | Sumitomo Metal Ind Ltd | Method of forecasting consumed electrical energy |
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| JPH08186932A (en) * | 1995-01-04 | 1996-07-16 | Nippon Steel Corp | Apparatus for estimating power consumption |
| JP2000217253A (en) * | 1999-01-19 | 2000-08-04 | Sumitomo Metal Ind Ltd | Method of forecasting consumed electrical energy |
| JP2010148185A (en) * | 2008-12-17 | 2010-07-01 | Jfe Steel Corp | Generated power adjustment method of power generation facility of manufacturing plant |
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| CN110546842A (en) * | 2017-06-14 | 2019-12-06 | 株式会社日立制作所 | energy management device and method, energy management system, and operation planning method for energy management system |
| CN113330468A (en) * | 2019-01-21 | 2021-08-31 | 杰富意钢铁株式会社 | Design support method for metal material, generation method for prediction model, manufacturing method for metal material, and design support device |
| CN111367169A (en) * | 2020-02-07 | 2020-07-03 | 大连富士冰山智控系统有限公司 | Control system, control device, and control method |
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| JPWO2015178256A1 (en) | 2017-04-20 |
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| WO2015178256A1 (en) | 2015-11-26 |
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