CN106463959B - Power supply and demand guiding device and power supply and demand guidance method - Google Patents
Power supply and demand guiding device and power supply and demand guidance method Download PDFInfo
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- CN106463959B CN106463959B CN201580025534.2A CN201580025534A CN106463959B CN 106463959 B CN106463959 B CN 106463959B CN 201580025534 A CN201580025534 A CN 201580025534A CN 106463959 B CN106463959 B CN 106463959B
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- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B19/00—Programme-control systems
- G05B19/02—Programme-control systems electric
- G05B19/418—Total factory control, i.e. centrally controlling a plurality of machines, e.g. direct or distributed numerical control [DNC], flexible manufacturing systems [FMS], integrated manufacturing systems [IMS], computer integrated manufacturing [CIM]
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/12—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load
- H02J3/14—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load by switching loads on to, or off from, network, e.g. progressively balanced loading
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2310/00—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load
- H02J2310/50—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load for selectively controlling the operation of the loads
- H02J2310/54—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load for selectively controlling the operation of the loads according to a pre-established time schedule
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B70/00—Technologies for an efficient end-user side electric power management and consumption
- Y02B70/30—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for improving the carbon footprint of the management of residential or tertiary loads, i.e. smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the buildings sector, including also the last stages of power distribution and the control, monitoring or operating management systems at local level
- Y02B70/3225—Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B90/00—Enabling technologies or technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
- Y02B90/20—Smart grids as enabling technology in buildings sector
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/02—Total factory control, e.g. smart factories, flexible manufacturing systems [FMS] or integrated manufacturing systems [IMS]
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/80—Management or planning
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
- Y04S20/20—End-user application control systems
- Y04S20/222—Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving
Abstract
In power supply and demand guiding device (200), production plan acquisition unit (221) obtains the production plan for belonging to the manufacturing works of iron-smelter, amount of power prediction section (222) is based on acquired production plan, calculating predicts the prediction amount of power for the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence, the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works of calculating is added and is calculated the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, the prediction amount of power of prediction amount of power and each manufacturing works of the electricity determination section (223) based on iron-smelter entirety is bought in power generation, determine the generation power amount that oneself generates electricity, that buys from electric power enterprise buys electric amount of power, output cuts down ratio, visualization portion (225) is by the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works, the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, generation power amount, buy electric amount of power and output cut down ratio when Between sequence variation be shown in monitor (263), the content that alert notification portion (224) cut down output carries out alert notification.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the power supply and demand guiding device predicted using amount of power and power supply and demand in iron-smelter
Guidance method.
Background technique
In the past, a large amount of electric power needed for smelting iron enterprise in production is by using the generating equipment in iron-smelter
Oneself power generation (hereinafter, power generation) and buy (hereinafter, buying electricity) this 2 methods from electric power enterprise to provide.Wherein, about
The electric power bought from electric power enterprise buys contract based on the electric power concluded between ironmaking enterprise and electric power enterprise, every to determine
Stipulated time such as 1 hour maximum.If the amount of power bought from electric power enterprise be more than contract maximum, smelt iron enterprise to
Electric power enterprise pays huge penalty, electric power enterprise need to imagine more than power generation/transmission of electricity load, for both sides without
Ji.It therefore, is mostly by predicting increasing oneself generated energy using electric power or reducing factory for each factory in iron-smelter
Output, to avoid electricity is bought higher than contract demand amount.
It is recorded in patent document 1 to the technology predicted using amount of power in iron-smelter.In the art, it closes
In check repair during (when periodical repair), usually operation when, periodical repair/at the end of, calculated in advance according to past actual achievement data
The time sequence model (electric load mode) of the amount of power of each factory in iron-smelter, according to the time sequence model and future
Periodical repair planning data calculate the use amount of power at each moment.Thereby, it is possible to time-sequentially predict the electricity of iron-smelter entirety
Strength.
Citation
Patent document
Patent document 1: Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 8-186932 bulletin
Summary of the invention
Subject to be solved by the invention
However, needing electric load mode when assigning usually operation in advance in technology described in Patent Document 1.Cause
This, about the rolling factory significantly changed according to output using amount of power, there are output variation significantly
The time of variation and predict deviate project.
The present invention makes in view of the foregoing, even if the variation its purpose is to provide one kind in output significantly becomes
The time of change also can accurately predict the power supply and demand guiding device and power supply and demand of the amount of power used in iron-smelter
Guidance method.
Solution for solving the problem
In order to solve above-mentioned problem, purpose is realized, power supply and demand guiding device of the invention is characterized in that having:
Production plan acquisition unit obtains the production plan of product in the manufacturing works for belonging to iron-smelter；Amount of power predicting unit,
Based on the acquired production plan, calculating predicts the prediction electric power for the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence
The prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works of calculating is added and is calculated the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety by amount；Power generation is bought
Electricity determining means, the prediction amount of power of prediction amount of power and each manufacturing works based on the iron-smelter entirety, determines oneself
The generation power amount of power generation, bought from electric power enterprise buy electric amount of power, product output cut down ratio；Visualization,
By the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works, the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, the generation power amount, described buy
The time series variation that electric amount of power and the output cut down ratio is shown in monitor；And alert notification unit, for life
The content of production cutback carries out alert notification.
In addition, power supply and demand guiding device of the invention is characterized in that, the production plan acquisition unit obtains hot rolling
The heating furnace of factory extracts plan out, and the amount of power predicting unit extracts plan out based on the heating furnace of acquirement, uses hot rolling electric power
Formula, calculating predict the prediction amount of power for the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence.
In addition, power supply and demand guidance method of the invention is characterised by comprising: production plan obtaining step is belonging to
In the manufacturing works of iron-smelter, the production plan of product is obtained；Amount of power prediction steps, based on the acquired production
It draws, calculating predicts the prediction amount of power for the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence, by each manufacture of calculating
The prediction amount of power of factory is added and calculates the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety；Electricity deciding step is bought in power generation, based on described
The prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety and the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works determine generation power amount that oneself generates electricity, from electricity
What power enterprise bought buys electric amount of power, the output reduction ratio of product；Visualization step, by the prediction of each manufacturing works
Amount of power, the generation power amount, described buys electric amount of power and the output is cut at the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety
The time series variation for subtracting ratio is shown in monitor；And alert notification step, alarm is carried out for the content that output is cut down
Notice.
Invention effect
According to the present invention, even if also can accurately predict to smelt iron in time for significantly changing of variation of output
The amount of power that factory uses.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram for indicating the outline structure using power network of the invention.
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram for indicating the outline structure of power supply and demand guiding device of one embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the figure for indicating the data structure example related with production plan of present embodiment.
Fig. 4 is the figure for indicating the data structure example related with amount of power of present embodiment.
Fig. 5 is to indicate that the power supply and demand of present embodiment instructs the flow chart of processing order.
Fig. 6 is to indicate that the flow chart that electricity determines processing order is bought in the power generation of present embodiment.
Fig. 7 is the explanatory diagram for illustrating the effect of embodiment.
Fig. 8 is the figure of the prediction error for the amount of power for indicating previous method.
Fig. 9 is the figure of the prediction error for the amount of power for indicating this method.
Figure 10 is that electricity is bought in the accumulation of (60 minutes time points) after indicating 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points of previous method
Predicted value an example for instructing picture figure.
Figure 11 is that the pre- of electricity is bought in the accumulation of (60 minutes time points) after indicating 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points of this method
The figure of an example for instructing picture of measured value.
Figure 12 is to indicate that the figure of an example for instructing picture of the actual achievement value of electricity is bought in the accumulation of 60 minutes time points.
Specific embodiment
Hereinafter, referring to attached drawing, the power supply and demand guiding device and power supply and demand of the embodiment that the present invention will be described in detail
Guidance processing.It should be noted that limiting the present invention not over the embodiment.Moreover, in the record of attached drawing, for
Same label is marked with a part to indicate.
[structure of power network]
Firstly, referring to Fig.1, illustrating the structure using power network 101 of the invention.As shown in Figure 1, power network 101 includes
Power network 102, power transmission line 103, manufacturing works (A factory 104, B factory 105) in iron-smelter, other need source 106, in factory
Power plant 107, energy management facility 108 and electric power enterprise generating factory 109.A factory 104, B factory 105, other need source
106, power plant 107 and energy management facility 108 belong to the power network 102 in iron-smelter in factory.A factory 104 and B factory 105
Specifically indicate the related factory of the manufacture with steel products of rolling factory or Zhi Gang factory etc..Other need source 106 to have
Indicate that the electric power other than the manufacturing works such as office needs source for body.Power plant 107 specifically indicates that factory is utilized in factory
The interior thermal power plant etc. for generating gas.Energy management facility 108 is served as to be needed from A factory 104, B factory 105 and other electric power
The amount of power instruction in power plant 107 and the actual achievement palm in the decision of the grasp for wanting the electric power in source 106 to need and trnamission capacity distribution, factory
The instruction for the amount of power hold, bought from electric power enterprise generating factory 109 and actual achievement are grasped.A factory 104, B factory 105, other needs
Power plant 107, energy management facility 108 and electric power enterprise generating factory 109 are connected by power transmission line 103 in source 106, factory.
A factory 104, B factory 105 and other electric power for needing the consumption of source 106 to receive via power transmission line 103.Here, A work
Factory 104 and B factory 105 by electric power in order to be utilized based on production plan manufacture (production) product.
The electric power that power plant 107, electric power enterprise generating factory 109 generate electricity via the supply of power transmission line 103 in factory.But in factory
Power plant 107 only can be carried out dependent on the power generation for generating the heat that gas has in factory, therefore in each time-bands, maximum power amount
It is restricted, in addition, increasing instruction until supplying electric power practical increase from making generated energy, need to rely on generating equipment
The time of dynamic characteristic.Moreover, being equipped between ironmaking enterprise and electric power enterprise from the amount of power that electric power enterprise generating factory 109 sends
The contract maximum power amount of conclusion.
[structure of power supply and demand guiding device]
Next, illustrating the knot of the power supply and demand guiding device 200 applied to power network 101 as described above referring to Fig. 2
Structure.As shown in Fig. 2, in power supply and demand guiding device 200, arithmetic processing section 220, ROM230, RAM240, transacter
261, database (DB) 262, monitor 263 and input unit 264 can be via the drive access in apparatus main body 210
250 carry out data transmit-receive.
In addition, transacter 261 can be via drive access 265 and A plant server 271, B plant server
272 and energy management strategy device 273 carry out data transmission.Here, A plant server 271 keeps the A being set in A factory 104
The operation planning and operation actual achievement of factory.B plant server 272 remains set at the operation planning of the B factory in B factory 105
And operation actual achievement.Energy management strategy device 273 is set to energy management facility 108.
Apparatus main body 210 is realized using the general information processing unit such as personal computer or work station, including operation
Processing unit 220, ROM230, RAM240.
Arithmetic processing section 220 passes through the hardware realizations such as CPU.The arithmetic processing section 220 is based on the journey stored in ROM230
Sequence or data, the operation signal that inputs from input unit 264, obtain the display signal exported to monitor 263 from DB262
Various information etc. carry out instruction or the transmission of data etc. to each portion for constituting power supply and demand guiding device 200, control blanketly
The whole movement of power supply and demand guiding device 200.The arithmetic processing section 220 plays a role as following each portion: counting as production
Draw the production plan acquisition unit 221 of acquisition unit；Amount of power prediction section 222 as amount of power predicting unit；It is bought as power generation
Electricity determination section 223 is bought in the power generation of electricity determining means；Alert notification portion 224 as alert notification unit；As visualization
The visualization portion 225 of unit.
Be stored in ROM230 make power supply and demand guiding device 200 act and for realizing the power supply and demand guiding device
Program, the data used in the execution of these programs etc. of the 200 various functions having.Moreover, being stored with makes calculation process
Portion 220 as production plan acquisition unit 221, amount of power prediction section 222, power generation buy electricity determination section 223, alert notification portion 224,
Visualization portion 225 plays a role and the power supply and demand tutorial program 231 for executing aftermentioned power supply and demand guidance processing.
RAM240 is the operation memory as arithmetic processing section 220 and the semiconductor memory used, has temporarily
The memory area of data etc. used in the program that keeps arithmetic processing section 220 to execute, its execution.
Monitor 263 is realized by display devices such as LCD, EL display, CRT monitors, to input from apparatus main body 210
Display signal and show various pictures based on the display signal that input unit 264 inputs.Input unit 264 passes through example
Such as keyboard, mouse, touch panel, various switch input units and realize, will signal corresponding with operation input to device master
Body 210 and monitor 263 export.
Transacter 261 is by having the arithmetic unit of CPU etc., main storage means, hard disk or various storage mediums
The known server computer or work station of equal auxilary units, communication device, display device, input unit etc., individual
The general purpose computers such as computer are realized.The transacter 261 carry out from A plant server 271, B plant server 272 and
Energy management strategy device 273 collects the data registry reason registered about the data of production plan or amount of power to DB262.
Specifically, transacter 261 collects the system of the product manufactured by A factory 104 from A plant server 271
Make number, manufacture start time, manufacture finish time, as product raw material raw material number (hereinafter, raw material number),
The physical characteristic that physical characteristic (hereinafter, raw material characteristics) that raw material have, product number, product have is (hereinafter, product is special
Property), it is registered to DB262.Moreover, transacter 261 collects the product manufactured by B factory 105 from B plant server 272
Manufacture number, manufacture start time, manufacture finish time, raw material number, raw material characteristics, product number, product characteristic,
It is registered to DB262.Moreover, transacter 261 collects the use amount of power of A factory 104 from energy management strategy device 273
The use amount of power (actual achievement) of (actual achievement), B factory 105, other electric power need the use amount of power (actual achievement) in source 106, send out in factory
The generated energy actual achievement (hereinafter, generation power amount in factory) of power plant 107 and the possible maximum that generates electricity are (hereinafter, maximum generation electric power
Amount), the amount of power actual achievement (hereinafter, buying electric amount of power) from electric power enterprise generating factory 109 to iron-smelter power network 102 and contract that are sent from
About maximum power amount (hereinafter, maximum buys electric amount of power) is registered to DB262.
DB262 is the storage device for accumulating the data that (holding) is collected by transacter 261, passes through every certain time
Data are collected with/registration/more to newly arrive and construct.The data and Fig. 4 about production plan that DB262 keeps Fig. 3 to illustrate illustrate
The data about amount of power.It should be noted that the prediction amount of power in the data shown in Fig. 3 about production plan is by rear
The power supply and demand guidance processing stated is calculated and is registered.Moreover, total amount of power in the data shown in Fig. 4 about amount of power,
Insufficient amount of power and underproduction rate are instructed processing to calculate by aftermentioned power supply and demand and are registered.Moreover, mode of priority refers in electric power
Measure supply method preferential in insufficient situation, electrical generation priority, buy it is electric any of preferential pre-determined about each time-bands
And it registers.
[power supply and demand guidance processing]
Next, illustrating that power supply and demand guidance is handled.Fig. 5 is to indicate that arithmetic processing section 220 carries out in apparatus main body 210
Power supply and demand guidance processing processing order flow chart.Power supply and demand guiding device 200 by transacter 261 into
The above-mentioned data registry reason of row and arithmetic processing section 220 are come real according to the processing order progress power supply and demand guidance processing of Fig. 5
Apply power supply and demand guidance method.It should be noted that power supply and demand guidance processing is stored in by the reading of arithmetic processing section 220
The power supply and demand tutorial program 231 of ROM230 is simultaneously executed and is realized.Power supply and demand guidance processing is in arithmetic processing section 220 from defeated
Enter device 264 and receive the time point of operation initiation command to start.
Firstly, production plan acquisition unit 221 obtains the production plan being stored in DB262 in the processing of step S501.
That is, production plan acquisition unit 221 about after from current time to the following stipulated time (in the present embodiment, for example, future 2
After hour) by the scheduled product of each manufacturing works (A factory 104, B factory 105) manufacture, numbered from DB262 acquirement manufacture,
Manufacture start time, manufacture finish time, raw material number, raw material characteristics, product number, the data of product characteristic.
In addition, as being recorded Fig. 2, it is raw as the other form for obtaining production plan in the processing of step S501
Producing plan acquisition unit 221 can also be from the next process computer 281 being arranged in A plant server 271 through not shown
Gateway obtains production plan with some cycles (in the present embodiment, such as 1 minute period).Process computer 281 is from setting
The A plant server 271 being positioned in an up receives production plan, manufacture progress is added to the production plan received or from operation
The correcting value of person, production time after calibration send the computer of manufacture instruction to manufacturing equipment 282.That is, coming from process meter
The manufacture instruction of calculation machine 281 is unanimous on the whole with actual manufacturing time, therefore can obtain more accurate production plan.It needs
Bright, such process computer 281 also can be set in B plant server 272, also be able to carry out in this case same
Processing.
For example, process computer 281 may be constructed to be taken out as to the slab from heating furnace by taking rolling factory as an example
The rolling rhythm computer that spacing is controlled out.Course of hot rolling from heating furnace via milling train, cooling equipment up to batching by setting
Standby a series of equipment is constituted, the rolling rhythm computer obtain the rolling of the slab extracted out from heating furnace, cooling,
The development situation batched is predicted for the scheduled slab extracted out from now on from heating furnace based on the progress information from adding
Hot stove extraction is via rolling, the cooling time up to batching needed for completing, the time based on prediction and the correction from operator
It measures to the production plan obtained from host computer (plant server) i.e. heating furnace extraction plan and applies correction.Also, it rolls
Tempo calculation machine is sending slab extraction instruction to heating furnace according to the time of the heating furnace extraction plan after correction.In step
In the case that the processing of S501 has used rolling rhythm computer, production plan acquisition unit 221 obtains newest after the correction
Heating furnace extract out plan.
Next, in the processing of step S502, amount of power prediction section 222 with per stipulated time (in present embodiment, if
For such as 1 minute track) utilize the following method prediction amount of power required until after 2 hours following.That is, amount of power is predicted
Portion 222 firstly for each predetermined manufacture until after following 2 hours product, by with the raw material characteristics of the product and
Product characteristic is the function f of following formula (1) expression of input variable to predict to manufacture the amount of power used.
[mathematical expression 1]
Manufacture use amount of power=f (raw material characteristics 1, raw material characteristics 2 ..., product characteristic 1, product characteristic 2)
…(1)
For example, function f is specifically constituted as following formula (2) by taking rolling factory as an example.
[mathematical expression 2]
P (i)=a × w (i) × k (i) β × log (H (i)/h (i)) ... (2)
Wherein,
The amount of power that p (i): hot rolling loop product i manufacture uses
W (i): the raw-material weight of product i
K (i): the product hardness of product i
H (i): the material stock thickness of product i
H (i): the product thickness of product i
α, β: the regulation coefficient dependent on manufacturing environments such as rolling equipments
The amount of power (prediction amount of power) that amount of power prediction section 222 uses the manufacture of each product of calculating is as shown in Figure 3
The data logger about production plan of DB262 is written.
Also, amount of power prediction section 222 production plan of such each manufacturing works and prediction amount of power according to Fig.3,
Data, the amount of power (prediction amount of power) that each manufacturing works use was calculated and predicted using following formula (3) with every 1 minute.
[mathematical expression 3]
Pt=∑ i (p (i) × c (i))+γ ... (3)
Wherein,
Pt: moment t~t+1 prediction amount of power
The amount of power that p (i): product i manufacture uses
C (i): in the ratio of the time of moment t~t+1 manufacture product i
I: scheduled product number is manufactured in moment t~t+1
γ: the basic amount of power of manufacturing equipment idle running etc.
In addition, amount of power prediction section 222 retrieves each time from the moon and round the clock for 12 × 2 two-dimensional look-up table of keyword
Band other need source 106 need amount of power.The value of the look-up table be based on past actual achievement data and calculate be averaged
Value.Amount of power prediction section 222 is by the amount of power of the A factory 104 at each moment found out above (using amount of power), B factory 105
Amount of power (using amount of power) and other need electric power of the aggregate values of the amount of power (using amount of power) in source 106 as factory's entirety
The predicted value of amount (amounting to amount of power).Moreover, amount of power prediction section 222, which is calculated from total amount of power, subtracts maximum generation amount of power
Deficiency amount of power obtained from electric amount of power is bought with maximum.Finally, amount of power prediction section 222 is by the A work of each time-bands of calculating
The amount of power of factory 104, the amount of power of B factory 105, other need the amount of power in source 106, amount to amount of power and insufficient amount of power such as
The data logger about amount of power of write-in DB262 shown in Fig. 4.
It should be noted that using the rolling rhythm computer, production plan acquisition unit 221 in step S501
In the case where obtaining the newest heating furnace extraction plan after correcting, in step S502, amount of power prediction section 222 is based on to add
Hot stove extraction plan, using hot rolling electric power type shown in above-mentioned formula (1)~(3), calculating predicts each manufacture work in temporal sequence
The prediction amount of power for the amount of power that factory uses.
Next, in the processing of step S503, power generation, which buys electricity determination section 223 and carries out power generation, buys electricity decision processing,
The power generation buys electricity and determines to handle the generation power amount until after determining 2 hours futures for every 1 minute each time-bands
With the distribution for buying electric amount of power.Specifically, power generation buys electricity determination section 223 according to the order of flow chart shown in fig. 6 to hold
Electricity decision processing is bought in row power generation.That is, it is maximum generation amount of power and maximum that power generation, which buys electricity determination section 223 amounting to amount of power,
It buys the sum of electric amount of power following (S601 is "Yes") and mode of priority is electrical generation priority (step S602 is "Yes") and amounts to electricity
Strength is (step S603 is "Yes") in maximum generation amount of power situation below, and generation power amount is set as and amounts to amount of power
Identical value will buy electric amount of power and be set as 0 (step S604).The processing of step S503 is completed as a result, power supply and demand guidance processing
Enter step the processing of S504.
In the processing of step S503, amount to amount of power be maximum generation amount of power and maximum buy the sum of electric amount of power with
Under (step S601 is "Yes") and mode of priority be electrical generation priority (step S602 is "Yes") and amount to amount of power than maximum hair
In the case that electric amount of power is big (step S603 is "No"), power generation buys electricity determination section 223 and is set as generation power amount and maximum
The identical value of generation power amount will buy electric amount of power and be set as subtracting value obtained from maximum generation amount of power from total amount of power
(step S605).The processing of step S503 is completed as a result, and power supply and demand guidance handles the processing for entering step S504.
In the processing of step S503, amount to amount of power be maximum generation amount of power and maximum buy the sum of electric amount of power with
Under (step S601 is "Yes") and mode of priority be to buy electric preferential (step S602 be "No") and total amount of power is bought for maximum
In electric amount of power situation below (step S606 be "Yes"), power generation buy electricity determination section 223 will buy electric amount of power be set as with always
The identical value of amount of power is counted, generation power amount is set as 0 (step S607).The processing of step S503 is completed as a result, power supply and demand
Guidance handles the processing for entering step S504.
In the processing of step S503, amount to amount of power be maximum generation amount of power and maximum buy the sum of electric amount of power with
Under (step S601 is "Yes") and mode of priority be to buy electric preferential (step S602 be "No") and total amount of power is bought than maximum
(step S606 be "No") in the case that electric amount of power is big, power generation buy electricity determination section 223 will buy electric amount of power be set as with it is maximum
The identical value of electric amount of power is bought, generation power amount is set as subtracting maximum and buying value obtained from electric amount of power from amounting to amount of power
(step S608).The processing of step S503 is completed as a result, and power supply and demand guidance handles the processing for entering step S504.
In the processing of step S503, do not meet it is either one or two of above, amount to amount of power than maximum generation amount of power with
In the case that maximum buys the sum of electric amount of power greatly (step S601 is "No"), power generation buys electricity determination section 223 for generation power amount
It is set as value identical with maximum generation amount of power, electric amount of power will be bought and be set as buying the identical value (step of electric amount of power with maximum
S609).Insufficient amount of power is set as to subtract maximum generation amount of power from total amount of power moreover, electricity determination section 223 is bought in power generation
Value obtained from electric amount of power is bought with maximum, underproduction rate (output reduction ratio) is set as insufficient amount of power divided by true in advance
It is worth (step S610) obtained from the use amount of power of the factory of fixed underproduction candidate.Moreover, alert notification portion 224 is for the underproduction
The server and monitor 263 of the factory of candidate send the alert notification (step S611) for the content that notice output is cut down.By
This, the processing of step S503 is completed, and power supply and demand guidance handles the processing for entering step S504.
It should be noted that visualization portion 225 by the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works calculated as previously discussed, amount to
Amount of power, generation power amount, buy electric amount of power, underproduction rate time series variation to monitor 263 export.
In the processing of step S504, arithmetic processing section 220 is not receiving calculation process stopping life from input unit 264
During order (step S504 be "No"), the place of (tens seconds~dozens of minutes interval) return step S501 at a certain time interval
It manages and repeats the processing until step S503.Arithmetic processing section 220 is receiving calculation process stopping from input unit 264
In the case where order (step S504 is "Yes"), terminate a series of power supply and demand guidance processing.
Fig. 4 shows the value 100 on the basis of the amount of power of certain time point (MWh) and carries out the embodiment that index (dimension 1) is changed.
For example, 00 divide 00 second at 1 day 10 March in 2000, the use amount of power of A factory 104 is that 100, B factory 105 uses electric power
Amount is 150, and it is 100 that other, which need the use amount of power in source 106, and amounting to amount of power is 350.At this point, mode of priority is excellent to buy electricity
First, it is 260 that maximum, which buys electric amount of power, therefore needs guidance to handle by electric power, and the generation power amount in factory that calculates is 100, buys electricity
Amount of power is 260.
In addition, 30 dividing 00 second at 1 day 11 March in 2000, the use amount of power of A factory 104 is 120, B factory 105
It the use of amount of power is 110, it is 100 that other, which need the use amount of power in source 106, and amounting to amount of power is 330.At this point, maximum generation
Amount of power is 150, and it is 150 that maximum, which buys electric amount of power, therefore calculating generation power amount in factory is 150, and buying electric amount of power is 150,
Insufficient amount of power is 30, and the underproduction rate of the A factory 104 as underproduction candidate is 25%.
More than, as described in explanation, the power supply and demand guidance of power supply and demand guiding device according to the present embodiment is handled, base
The amount of power of each factory is predicted in production plan, therefore even if also can accurately be predicted in the time of the output sudden turn of events
Amount of power.Therefore, it can prevent from buying electricity more than contract demand amount, the uneconomical of penalty payment etc. can be prevented.Moreover, calculating
Out according to buy electricity and power generation priority generation power amount, buy electric amount of power, output cut down ratio, can by they to
The operator of each manufacturing works and energy management facility carries out Operating Guideline.Therefore, it may have caused by preventing superfluous power generation
The effect of productivity loss caused by cost of electricity-generating increases and the production of surplus is cut down.
It this concludes the description of the embodiment using the invention made through the invention, but not over based on this reality
The description of a part for the disclosure of the invention that the mode of applying is made and attached drawing limit the present invention.Namely based on present embodiment, lead to
It crosses other embodiments, embodiment and application technology that those skilled in the art etc. make etc. and is all contained in model of the invention
Farmland.
[embodiment]
Next, illustrating the effect of present embodiment referring to Fig. 7.Fig. 7 is the power network 101 for indicating that there is Fig. 1 to record
The change of the actual achievement value and predicted value, the output of each manufacturing works (A factory 104, B factory 105) of the total amount of power of iron-smelter
The figure of change.In the middle section coordinate diagram and lower section coordinate diagram of Fig. 7 it is found that between moment t-1 and t for boundary, A factory 104 and B work
The output of factory 105 suddenly increases.In the present embodiment, the time between moment t-1 and t is handled using power supply and demand guidance
Predict amount of power.
In the previous method, the method that extrapolation is carried out by tight preceding rolling average of total amount of power of actual achievement etc. is utilized
Predict amount of power, therefore as shown in the dotted line of the upper section coordinate diagram of Fig. 7 expression, the amount of power for being predicted as moment t, t+1 compares the moment
T-1 is reduced.However, actual production increases, therefore as shown by the solid line, amount of power increases, and prediction significantly deviates.
On the other hand, power supply and demand guidance processing according to the present embodiment, arithmetic processing section 220 carry out and output
Increase corresponding amount of power prediction, therefore as shown in the dotted line of the upper section coordinate diagram of Fig. 7, it is known that obtained than previous method
Predicted value of the predicted value closer to actual achievement value.
In addition, as shown in figure 8, the prediction error for needing amount of power of previous method is σ 4.6MWh, but such as Fig. 9 institute
Show, the prediction error of this method is σ 1.7MWh.Thus it will also realize that, this method prediction error compared with the past is reduced, and is approached
In the predicted value of actual achievement value.It should be noted that Fig. 8 and the longitudinal axis of coordinate diagram shown in Fig. 9 are the predicted value of amount of power, horizontal axis
It is the actual achievement value of amount of power, the R in coordinate diagram2It is the coefficient of determination.
Figure 10~Figure 12 is an example for instructing picture for buying electricity, and the longitudinal axis is that electricity is bought in accumulation, and horizontal axis is the time.Previous
Method in, as shown in Figure 10, power quantity predicting is bought in the accumulation of (60 minutes time points) after 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points is
77MWh.Therefore, compared with the actual achievement value 90MWh of electricity is bought in the accumulation of previous method 60 minutes time points shown in Figure 12, exist
The error of 13MWh.It on the other hand, in the method, as shown in figure 11, will be after 25 minutes of 35 minutes time points (at 60 minutes
Point) accumulation to buy power quantity predicting be 96MWh, be 6MWh with the error of actual achievement value.Thus, it can be known that even if buying the pre- of electricity in accumulation
In survey, this method prediction error compared with the past is also reduced, and can obtain the predicted value close to actual achievement value.
It should be noted that in the above-described embodiments, to have 2 manufacturing works recorded using Fig. 1 as the electric power of object
It is illustrated for the iron-smelter of net, but the present invention is not limited thereto, also can be applied to the manufacture work with 3 or more
Factory is the power network of object.
Industrial applicibility
As previously discussed, power supply and demand guiding device of the invention and power supply and demand guidance method can be predicted accurately
The amount of power that iron-smelter uses, therefore can be applied to the iron-smelter for having generating equipment.
Label declaration
101 power network
Power network in 102 iron-smelters
103 power transmission lines
104 A factories
105 B factories
106 other need source
Power plant in 107 factories
108 energy management facilities
109 electric power enterprise generating factories
200 power supply and demand guiding devices
210 apparatus main bodies
220 arithmetic processing sections
221 production plan acquisition units
222 amount of power prediction sections
Electricity determination section is bought in 223 power generations
224 alert notification portions
225 visualization portions
230 ROM
231 power supply and demand tutorial programs
240 RAM
250 drive access
261 transacters
262 databases (DB)
263 monitors
264 input units
265 drive access
271 A plant servers
272 B plant servers
273 energy management strategy devices
281 process computers
282 manufacturing equipments
Claims (3)
1. a kind of power supply and demand guiding device, which is characterized in that have:
Production plan acquisition unit obtains the production plan of product in the manufacturing works for belonging to iron-smelter；
Amount of power predicting unit, based on the acquired production plan, calculating predicts each manufacturing works in temporal sequence to be made
The prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works of calculating is added and calculates iron-smelter entirety by the prediction amount of power of amount of power
Prediction amount of power；
Electricity determining means is bought in power generation, the prediction electric power of prediction amount of power and each manufacturing works based on the iron-smelter entirety
Amount, determine oneself generate electricity generation power amount, bought from electric power enterprise buy electric amount of power, product output cut down ratio；
Visualization, by the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works, the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, the hair
Electric amount of power, it is described buy electric amount of power and the output and cut down the time series variation of ratio be shown in monitor；And
Alert notification unit carries out alert notification for the content that output is cut down,
The process computer that the production plan acquisition unit is arranged from the bottom of the server in the manufacturing works is with minute
The some cycles of grade obtain the production plan used in actual manufacture,
The power generation buys that maximum generation amount of power and maximum are bought the sum of electric amount of power by electricity determining means and the iron-smelter is whole
The prediction amount of power of body is compared,
Also, confirm the excellent of the supply method pre-determined about each time-bands, expression is preferential in the insufficient situation of amount of power
First mode,
Also, it is bought by prediction amount of power and the maximum generation amount of power to the iron-smelter entirety or the maximum electric
Strength is compared, according to the mode of priority that confirmed, come determine the generation power amount, it is described buy electric amount of power and
The output cuts down ratio.
2. power supply and demand guiding device according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
The heating furnace that the production plan acquisition unit obtains rolling factory extracts plan out,
The amount of power predicting unit extracts plan out based on the heating furnace of acquirement, using hot rolling electric power type, calculates in temporal sequence
Predict the prediction amount of power for the amount of power that each manufacturing works use.
3. a kind of power supply and demand guidance method characterized by comprising
Production plan obtaining step obtains the production plan of product in the manufacturing works for belonging to iron-smelter；
Amount of power prediction steps, based on the acquired production plan, calculating predicts each manufacturing works in temporal sequence to be made
The prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works of calculating is added and calculates iron-smelter entirety by the prediction amount of power of amount of power
Prediction amount of power；
Electricity deciding step is bought in power generation, the prediction electric power of prediction amount of power and each manufacturing works based on the iron-smelter entirety
Amount, determine oneself generate electricity generation power amount, bought from electric power enterprise buy electric amount of power, product output cut down ratio；
Visualization step, by the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works, the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, the hair
Electric amount of power, it is described buy electric amount of power and the output and cut down the time series variation of ratio be shown in monitor；And
Alert notification step carries out alert notification for the content that output is cut down,
The process computer that the production plan obtaining step is arranged from the bottom of the server in the manufacturing works is with minute
The some cycles of grade obtain the production plan used in actual manufacture,
The power generation buys that maximum generation amount of power and maximum are bought the sum of electric amount of power by electricity deciding step and the iron-smelter is whole
The prediction amount of power of body is compared,
Also, confirm the excellent of the supply method pre-determined about each time-bands, expression is preferential in the insufficient situation of amount of power
First mode,
Also, it is bought by prediction amount of power and the maximum generation amount of power to the iron-smelter entirety or the maximum electric
Strength is compared, according to the mode of priority that confirmed, come determine the generation power amount, it is described buy electric amount of power and
The output cuts down ratio.
Applications Claiming Priority (3)
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|---|---|---|---|
| JP2014103418 | 2014-05-19 | ||
| JP2014-103418 | 2014-05-19 | ||
| PCT/JP2015/063665 WO2015178256A1 (en) | 2014-05-19 | 2015-05-12 | Power demand and supply guidance device and power demand and supply guidance method |
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| CN106463959A CN106463959A (en) | 2017-02-22 |
| CN106463959B true CN106463959B (en) | 2019-12-03 |
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| JP (1) | JP6160705B2 (en) |
| CN (1) | CN106463959B (en) |
| WO (1) | WO2015178256A1 (en) |
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| CN110546842B (en) * | 2017-06-14 | 2023-01-03 | 株式会社日立制作所 | Energy management device and method, energy management system, and operation planning method for energy management system |
| CN111367169A (en) * | 2020-02-07 | 2020-07-03 | 大连富士冰山智控系统有限公司 | Control system, control device, and control method |
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| JPS6240027A (en) * | 1985-08-14 | 1987-02-21 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Operation of private power generation equipment |
| JP3468602B2 (en) * | 1995-01-04 | 2003-11-17 | 新日本製鐵株式会社 | Power consumption prediction device |
| JP3498786B2 (en) * | 1999-01-19 | 2004-02-16 | 住友金属工業株式会社 | Power consumption prediction method |
| JP4925356B2 (en) * | 2008-07-17 | 2012-04-25 | 郵船商事株式会社 | Device operation pattern management method and load distribution prediction control method |
| JP5347474B2 (en) * | 2008-12-17 | 2013-11-20 | Ｊｆｅスチール株式会社 | Method for adjusting generated power of manufacturing plant power generation equipment |
| WO2013121514A1 (en) * | 2012-02-14 | 2013-08-22 | 東芝三菱電機産業システム株式会社 | Power equalisation device |
| JP6114532B2 (en) * | 2012-10-26 | 2017-04-12 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Energy management system |
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