JPWO2015178256A1 - Electric power supply / demand guidance apparatus and electric power supply / demand guidance method - Google Patents

Abstract

In the power supply / demand guidance apparatus 200, the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires a production plan of a manufacturing factory belonging to the steel plant, and the power prediction unit 222 determines the amount of power to be used in each manufacturing factory based on the acquired production plan. Calculate the predicted power amount predicted in time series, add the calculated predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant to calculate the predicted power amount of the entire steel plant, and the generated power purchase amount determination unit 223 predicts the entire steel plant Based on the power amount and the predicted power amount of each manufacturing factory, determine the generated power amount to be generated in-house, the purchased power amount purchased from the power company, and the production reduction ratio, and the visualization unit 225 determines the predicted power amount of each manufacturing factory, A time series change in the predicted power amount, generated power amount, purchased power amount, and production amount reduction ratio of the entire steelworks is displayed on the monitor 263, and the alarm notification unit 224 notifies the user that the production amount is reduced.

Description

  The present invention relates to a power supply / demand guidance apparatus and a power supply / demand guidance method for predicting the amount of power used in a steelworks.

  Traditionally, steel companies have been able to supply a large amount of electricity required for production in two ways: private power generation (hereinafter referred to as power generation) using power generation facilities in the steelworks and purchase from power companies (hereinafter referred to as power purchase). Yes. Among these, the maximum amount of electricity purchased from the power company is determined for a predetermined time, for example, every hour, based on a power purchase contract exchanged between the steel company and the power company. If the amount of power purchased from the power company exceeds the maximum contract amount, the steel company will pay a large penalty to the power company, and the power company will require more power generation / transmission load than expected, which is inconvenient for both parties. It becomes economy. For this reason, steel works often increase the amount of in-house power generation or decrease the amount of factory production so that the amount of power purchased does not exceed the amount of contracted power by predicting the power consumed by each plant.

  Patent Document 1 describes a technique for predicting the amount of power used in an ironworks. In this technology, the time series pattern (electric power load pattern) of the electric energy of each factory in the steelworks is preliminarily calculated from past performance data for the inspection and repair period (regular maintenance), normal operation, and regular repair start / fall time. The power consumption at each time is calculated from this and future fixed repair plan data. Thereby, the electric energy of the whole steelworks can be predicted in time series.

JP-A-8-186932

  However, in the technique described in Patent Document 1, it is necessary to give a power load pattern during normal operation in advance. For this reason, there has been a problem that a hot rolling mill in which the amount of electric power used varies greatly according to the production amount is unpredictable at the timing when the variation in production amount greatly changes.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above, and provides a power supply and demand guidance apparatus and a power supply and demand guidance method capable of predicting the amount of power to be used at a steelworks with high accuracy even at a timing when a fluctuation in production amount greatly changes. The purpose is to provide.

  In order to solve the above-described problems and achieve the object, a power supply and demand guidance apparatus according to the present invention includes a production plan acquisition means for acquiring a production plan of a product in a manufacturing factory belonging to an ironworks, and the acquired production Based on the plan, calculate the predicted power amount that predicted the power amount used in each manufacturing plant in time series, and add the calculated predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant to calculate the predicted power amount of the entire steel plant Power generation means that determines the power prediction means, the amount of power generated in-house based on the predicted power amount of the entire steel plant and the predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant, the amount of power purchased from the power company, and the rate of product reduction Electricity purchase determination means and visualization for displaying on the monitor time series changes of the predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted power amount of the entire steelworks, the generated power amount, the purchased power amount, and the production reduction ratio means Characterized by and a alarm notification means for alarm notifies the reduction production.

  In the power supply and demand guidance apparatus according to the present invention, the production plan acquisition unit acquires a heating furnace extraction plan of a hot rolling factory, and the power prediction unit performs hot rolling based on the acquired heating furnace extraction plan. It is characterized in that predicted power is calculated by predicting, in time series, the amount of power used in each manufacturing factory using a power formula.

  The power supply and demand guidance method according to the present invention includes a production plan acquisition step of acquiring a production plan of a product in a manufacturing factory belonging to an ironworks, and an amount of electric power used in each manufacturing factory based on the acquired production plan. Predicting the amount of power predicted in time series, and adding the calculated predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant to calculate the predicted power amount of the entire steel plant, and the predicted power of the entire steel plant A power generation purchase amount determining step for determining a power generation amount to be generated in-house based on the amount and a predicted power consumption of each manufacturing plant, a power purchase amount purchased from an electric power company, and a product production reduction ratio, and a prediction of each manufacturing plant Visualization step for displaying on the monitor the time series change of the electric energy, the predicted electric energy of the whole steelworks, the generated electric energy, the purchased electric energy, and the production reduction ratio, and the effect of the production reduction. Characterized in that it comprises an alarm notification step of notifying over arm, the.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the electric energy used in a steelworks can be estimated with high precision also at the timing when the fluctuation | variation of a production amount changes large.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power network to which the present invention is applied. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power supply / demand guidance apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a data configuration example related to the production plan of the present embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a data configuration example related to power according to the present embodiment. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the power supply / demand guidance processing procedure of the present embodiment. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the power generation / purchase amount determination processing procedure of the present embodiment. FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the effect of the embodiment. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a prediction error of the electric energy by the conventional method. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a prediction error of the electric energy by this method. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a guidance screen showing the predicted value of the accumulated power purchase amount 25 minutes ahead (60 minutes) at the 35 minutes point according to the conventional method. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a guidance screen showing the predicted value of the accumulated power purchase amount 25 minutes ahead (60 minutes) at the time of 35 minutes according to the present method. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of a guidance screen showing the actual value of the accumulated power purchase amount at the 60-minute time point.

  Hereinafter, an electric power supply and demand guidance apparatus and an electric power supply and demand guidance process according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In addition, this invention is not limited by this embodiment. Moreover, in description of drawing, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected and shown to the same part.

[Power network configuration]
First, the configuration of a power network 101 to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 1, an electric power network 101 includes an electric power network 102 in an ironworks, a transmission line 103, a manufacturing factory (A factory 104, B factory 105), other demand sources 106, an in-house power station 107, an energy management facility 108, and electric power. Includes company power plant 109. The A factory 104, the B factory 105, the other demand sources 106, the in-house power plant 107, and the energy management facility 108 belong to the power network 102 in the steelworks. The A factory 104 and the B factory 105 specifically represent factories involved in the manufacture of steel products such as a hot rolling factory and a steel making factory. Specifically, the other demand source 106 represents a power demand source other than the manufacturing factory such as an office. The on-site power plant 107 specifically represents a thermal power plant using on-site generated gas. The energy management facility 108 grasps the power demand from the A factory 104, the B factory 105, and other power demand sources 106 and determines the transmission amount distribution, instructs the power amount in the on-site power plant 107 and grasps the results, and the power company power plant 109. Responsible for instructing and grasping the amount of power purchased from A factory 104, B factory 105, other demand sources 106, in-house power plant 107, energy management facility 108, and electric power company power plant 109 are connected by a transmission line 103.

  The A factory 104, the B factory 105, and the other demand sources 106 consume the power received via the power transmission line 103. Here, the received power of the A factory 104 and the B factory 105 is used for the manufacture (production) of products based on the production plan.

  The on-site power plant 107 and the power company power plant 109 supply the power generated via the power transmission line 103. However, the on-site power plant 107 can only generate power depending on the amount of heat generated by the on-site generated gas, so the maximum amount of power is limited in each time zone, and the supply power is actually increased after an instruction to increase the amount of power generation is issued. It takes time depending on the dynamic characteristics of the power generation equipment. Further, the amount of power transmitted from the power company power plant 109 is provided with the maximum contracted power amount exchanged between the steel company and the power company.

[Configuration of electricity supply and demand guidance device]
Next, the configuration of the power supply / demand guidance apparatus 200 applied to the power network 101 will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 2, the power supply / demand guidance apparatus 200 includes an arithmetic processing unit 220, a ROM 230, a RAM 240, a data collection device 261, a database (DB) 262, a monitor 263, and an input device 264 that are included in the apparatus main body 210. Data can be sent and received via the path 250.

  The data collection device 261 is configured to be able to transmit data via the transmission path 265 with the A factory server 271, the B factory server 272, and the energy management server 273. Here, the A factory server 271 holds an operation plan and an operation result of the A factory installed in the A factory 104. The B factory server 272 holds an operation plan and an operation result of the B factory installed in the B factory 105. The energy management server 273 is installed in the energy management facility 108.

  The apparatus main body 210 is realized by using a general-purpose information processing apparatus such as a personal computer or a workstation, and includes an arithmetic processing unit 220, a ROM 230, and a RAM 240.

  The arithmetic processing unit 220 is realized by hardware such as a CPU. The arithmetic processing unit 220 uses the power supply / demand guidance device 200 based on programs and data stored in the ROM 230, display signals output to the monitor 263, operation signals input from the input device 264, various information acquired from the DB 262, and the like. Instructions and data transfer to the constituent parts are performed, and overall operation of the power supply / demand guidance apparatus 200 is controlled. The arithmetic processing unit 220 includes a production plan acquisition unit 221 as a production plan acquisition unit, a power prediction unit 222 as a power prediction unit, a power generation purchase amount determination unit 223 as a power generation purchase amount determination unit, and an alarm notification unit. The alarm notification unit 224 and the visualization unit 225 as a visualization unit function.

  The ROM 230 stores a program for operating the power supply / demand guidance apparatus 200 and realizing various functions of the power supply / demand guidance apparatus 200, data used during execution of these programs, and the like. Further, the power supply / demand for causing the arithmetic processing unit 220 to function as the production plan acquisition unit 221, the power prediction unit 222, the power generation purchase amount determination unit 223, the alarm notification unit 224, and the visualization unit 225 to execute a power supply / demand guidance process described later. A guidance program 231 is stored.

  The RAM 240 is a semiconductor memory used as a working memory for the arithmetic processing unit 220, and includes a memory area that temporarily stores programs executed by the arithmetic processing unit 220, data used during the execution, and the like.

  The monitor 263 is realized by a display device such as an LCD, an EL display, or a CRT display, and displays various screens based on a display signal input from the device main body 210 and a display signal input from the input device 264. To do. The input device 264 is realized by an input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, and various switches, for example, and outputs a signal corresponding to an operation input to the device main body 210 and the monitor 263.

  The data collection device 261 is a well-known server computer, workstation, personal computer or the like equipped with an arithmetic device such as a CPU, a main storage device, an auxiliary storage device such as a hard disk or various storage media, a communication device, a display device, an input device, etc. Realized by a general-purpose computer. The data collection device 261 performs data registration processing for collecting data related to production plans and electric power from the A factory server 271, the B factory server 272, and the energy management server 273 and registering the data in the DB 262.

  Specifically, the data collection device 261 receives a manufacturing number, a manufacturing start time, a manufacturing end time, a material number (hereinafter referred to as a material number) as a raw material of the product manufactured from the A factory server 271 from the A factory server 271. The physical characteristics of the material (hereinafter referred to as material characteristics), the product number, and the physical characteristics of the product (hereinafter referred to as product characteristics) are collected and registered in the DB 262. Further, the data collection device 261 collects the manufacturing number, the manufacturing start time, the manufacturing end time, the material number, the material characteristic, the product number, and the product characteristic of the product manufactured at the B factory 105 from the B factory server 272, and the DB 262. Register with. In addition, the data collection device 261 receives, from the energy management server 273, the power consumption (actual) of the factory A 104, the power consumption (actual) of the factory B 105, the power consumption (actual) of the other power demand source 106, the in-house Actual power generation amount of power plant 107 (hereinafter referred to as in-house power generation amount) and maximum power generation possible amount (hereinafter referred to as maximum power generation amount), actual power amount transmitted from power company power plant 109 to steelworks power grid 102 (hereinafter referred to as purchase) Electric energy) and contract maximum electric energy (hereinafter, maximum electric energy purchased) are collected and registered in the DB 262.

  The DB 262 is a storage device that accumulates (holds) data collected by the data collection device 261, and is constructed by collecting, registering, and updating data at regular intervals. The DB 262 holds data related to the production plan illustrated in FIG. 3 and data related to power illustrated in FIG. Of the data relating to the production plan shown in FIG. 3, the predicted power amount is calculated and registered in a power supply and demand guidance process described later. In addition, the total electric energy, the insufficient electric energy, and the subtraction rate among the data related to electric power shown in FIG. 4 are calculated and registered in the electric power supply and demand guidance process described later. The priority mode means a supply method that is prioritized when the amount of power is insufficient, and either power generation priority or power purchase priority is determined and registered in advance for each time period.

[Power supply / demand guidance processing]
Next, power supply / demand guidance processing will be described. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of power supply / demand guidance processing performed by the arithmetic processing unit 220 in the apparatus main body 210. In the power supply / demand guidance device 200, the data collection device 261 performs the above-described data registration processing, and the arithmetic processing unit 220 performs the power supply / demand guidance method by performing the power supply / demand guidance processing according to the processing procedure of FIG. The power supply / demand guidance process is realized by the arithmetic processing unit 220 reading and executing the power supply / demand guidance program 231 stored in the ROM 230. This power supply / demand guidance process is started when the arithmetic processing unit 220 receives a calculation start command from the input device 264.

  First, in the process of step S501, the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires a production plan stored in the DB 262. That is, the production plan acquisition unit 221 manufactures from the DB 262 at each manufacturing factory (the A factory 104 and the B factory 105) from the current time to the future predetermined time ahead (in this embodiment, for example, the future 2 hours ahead). For the product to be processed, data of manufacturing No, manufacturing start time, manufacturing end time, material No, material characteristics, product No, and product characteristics is acquired.

  Further, as illustrated in FIG. 2, as another aspect of acquiring the production plan in the process of step S <b> 501, the production plan acquisition unit 221 is not illustrated from the process computer 281 installed at the lower level of the A factory server 271. You may acquire a production plan with a fixed period (in this embodiment, for example, 1 minute period) via a gateway. The process computer 281 receives the production plan from the A factory server 271 installed at the upper level, adds the manufacturing progress and the correction amount from the operator to the received production plan, and instructs the manufacturing facility 282 to manufacture at the corrected production timing. Computer to send. That is, since the manufacturing instruction from the process computer 281 substantially coincides with the actual manufacturing timing, a more accurate production plan can be acquired. Such a process computer 281 may be installed in the factory B server 272, and in this case, the same processing can be performed.

  For example, taking a hot rolling mill as an example, the process computer 281 can be configured as a mill pacing computer that controls the slab extraction pitch from the heating furnace. The hot rolling process consists of a series of equipment from the heating furnace to the rolling mill, the cooling equipment, and the winding equipment. The mill pacing computer is the progress of rolling, cooling and winding of the slab already extracted from the heating furnace. The situation is acquired, and based on this progress information, the time required to complete winding after heating furnace extraction, rolling and cooling for the slab to be extracted from the heating furnace is predicted. Based on the amount of correction, the heating furnace extraction plan, which is a production plan acquired from the host computer (factory server), is corrected. The mill pacing computer then sends a slab extraction instruction to the heating furnace at a timing according to the corrected heating furnace extraction plan. When a mill pacing computer is used for the process of step S501, the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires the latest heating furnace extraction plan that has been corrected.

  Next, in the process of step S502, the power predicting unit 222 predicts the amount of power required up to two hours ahead in the predetermined time interval (in this embodiment, for example, in 1 minute increments) by the following method. . That is, the power predicting unit 222 first uses the following equation (1) with the amount of power used for manufacturing each product scheduled to be manufactured up to two hours in the future as input variables: material characteristics and product characteristics of the product. Is predicted by a function f expressed by:

  For example, taking a hot rolling factory as an example, the function f is specifically configured as the following equation (2).

  The power prediction unit 222 writes the calculated power amount (predicted power amount) used for manufacturing each product in a data record related to the production plan in the DB 262 as shown in FIG.

  Then, the power predicting unit 222 calculates the power amount (predicted power amount) used at each manufacturing plant in units of 1 minute from the production plan and predicted power amount data of each manufacturing plant as shown in FIG. Calculate and predict according to (3).

  In addition, the power prediction unit 222 searches for a demand power amount of the other demand source 106 in each time zone from a 12 × 2 two-dimensional lookup table using the month and day and night as keys. The value of this lookup table is an average value calculated based on past performance data. The power predicting unit 222 uses the power amount of the A factory 104 (used power amount), the power amount of the B factory 105 (used power amount), and the power amount of other demand sources 106 (used power amount) at each time determined above. Is the predicted value of the total amount of power (total power). In addition, the power prediction unit 222 calculates an insufficient power amount obtained by subtracting the maximum generated power amount and the maximum purchased power amount from the total power amount. Finally, the power predicting unit 222 calculates the power amount of the factory A 104, the power amount of the factory B 105, the power amount of the other demand source 106, the total power amount, and the shortage power amount in FIG. As shown, the data record related to the power of the DB 262 is written.

  In step S501, when the above-described mill pacing computer is used and the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires the latest heating furnace extraction plan, the power prediction unit 222 in step S502 uses the heating furnace extraction plan. Based on the hot rolling power equations shown in the above formulas (1) to (3), the predicted power in which the amount of power used in each manufacturing factory is predicted in time series is calculated.

  Next, in the process of step S503, the generated power purchase amount determination unit 223 determines the distribution of the generated power amount and the purchased power amount for the next two hours ahead for each time slot in 1 minute increments. Process. Specifically, the power generation / purchase amount determination unit 223 executes a power generation / purchase amount determination process according to the procedure of the flowchart shown in FIG. That is, the power generation / purchase amount determination unit 223 has the total power amount equal to or less than the sum of the maximum power generation amount and the maximum power purchase amount (S601, Yes), and the priority mode has power generation priority (step S602, Yes). When the total power amount is equal to or less than the maximum generated power amount (step S603, Yes), the generated power amount is set to the same value as the total power amount, and the purchased power amount is set to 0 (step S604). Thereby, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand guidance process proceeds to the process of step S504.

  In the process of step S503, the total power amount is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum generated power amount and the maximum purchased power amount (step S601, Yes), the priority mode is power generation priority (step S602, Yes), and When the total power amount is larger than the maximum generated power amount (step S603, No), the generated power purchase amount determining unit 223 sets the generated power amount to the same value as the maximum generated power amount, and the purchased power amount is calculated from the total power amount to the maximum generated power amount. A value obtained by subtracting the amount is set (step S605). Thereby, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand guidance process proceeds to the process of step S504.

  In the process of step S503, the total power amount is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum power generation amount and the maximum power purchase amount (step S601, Yes), the priority mode is power purchase priority (step S602, No), and When the total power amount is equal to or less than the maximum power purchase amount (step S606, Yes), the generated power purchase amount determining unit 223 sets the power purchase power amount to the same value as the total power amount and sets the generated power amount to 0 (step S607). ). Thereby, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand guidance process proceeds to the process of step S504.

  In the process of step S503, the total power amount is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum power generation amount and the maximum power purchase amount (step S601, Yes), the priority mode is power purchase priority (step S602, No), and When the total power amount is larger than the maximum purchased power amount (step S606, No), the generated power purchase amount determining unit 223 sets the purchased power amount to the same value as the maximum purchased power amount, and the generated power amount is determined as the maximum purchase amount from the total power amount. A value obtained by subtracting the amount of electric power is set (step S608). Thereby, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand guidance process proceeds to the process of step S504.

  In the process of step S503, if none of the above applies, and the total power amount is larger than the sum of the maximum power generation amount and the maximum power purchase amount (step S601, No), the power generation power purchase amount determination unit 223 The power amount is set to the same value as the maximum generated power amount, and the purchased power amount is set to the same value as the maximum purchased power amount (step S609). Further, the power generation / purchase amount determination unit 223 sets the shortage power amount as a value obtained by subtracting the maximum power generation amount and the maximum power purchase amount from the total power amount, and sets a reduction rate (production reduction ratio) in advance from the shortage power amount. The value is divided by the amount of power used by the factory that is the candidate for reduced production (step S610). In addition, the alarm notification unit 224 sends an alarm notification notifying that the production amount is reduced to the server and the monitor 263 of the factory for production reduction (Step S611). Thereby, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand guidance process proceeds to the process of step S504.

  The visualization unit 225 outputs, to the monitor 263, the predicted power amount, total power amount, generated power amount, purchased power amount, and production reduction rate of each manufacturing factory calculated as described above.

  In the processing in step S504, the arithmetic processing unit 220 performs the processing in step S501 at a constant time interval (several tens of seconds to several tens of minutes) while not receiving an arithmetic processing stop command from the input device 264 (step S504, No). The process up to S503 is repeatedly executed. When the arithmetic processing unit 220 receives an arithmetic processing stop command from the input device 264 (step S504, Yes), the arithmetic processing unit 220 ends a series of power supply / demand guidance processing.

  FIG. 4 shows an embodiment in which the amount of power (MWh) at a certain time is indexed (non-dimensional) with a reference value 100. For example, at 10:00:00 on March 1, 2000, the power consumption of the factory A 104 is 100, the power consumption of the factory B 105 is 150, the power consumption of the other demand source 106 is 100, and the total power The amount was 350. At this time, since the priority mode is power purchase priority and the maximum power purchase amount is 260, the on-site generated power amount is calculated as 100 and the purchased power amount is 260 by the power demand guidance process.

  In addition, at 11:30 on March 1, 2000, the power consumption of the factory A 104 is 120, the power consumption of the factory B 105 is 110, the power consumption at the other demand source 106 is 100, and the total power The amount was 330. At this time, since the maximum generated power amount is 150 and the maximum purchased power amount is 150, the in-house generated power amount is 150, the purchased power amount is 150, the insufficient power amount is 30, and the reduction rate of the factory A 104 that is a candidate for reduction in production. Was calculated to be 25%.

  As described above, according to the power supply and demand guidance process of the power supply and demand guidance apparatus of the present embodiment, the power amount of each factory is predicted based on the production plan. The amount can be predicted. Therefore, it is possible to prevent power purchase exceeding the contracted power amount, and to prevent inconvenience such as payment of penalty. In addition, it is possible to calculate the amount of generated power, the amount of purchased power, and the reduction rate of production according to the priority order of power purchase and power generation, and provide operational guidance to the operators of each manufacturing plant and energy management facility. Therefore, there is an effect of preventing an increase in power generation cost due to excessive power generation and productivity loss due to excessive production reduction.

  Although the embodiment to which the invention made by the present inventor is applied has been described above, the present invention is not limited by the description and the drawings that form a part of the disclosure of the present invention according to this embodiment. That is, other embodiments, examples, operational techniques, and the like made by those skilled in the art based on this embodiment are all included in the scope of the present invention.

[Example]
Next, the effect of the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the actual value and the predicted value of the total electric energy in the steelworks having the electric power network 101 shown in FIG. 1, and the change in the production amount of each manufacturing factory (A factory 104, B factory 105). In the middle graph and the lower graph in FIG. 7, it can be seen that the production amounts at the factory A 104 and the factory B 105 are rapidly increasing between the times t−1 and t. In the present embodiment, the amount of power is predicted by the power supply / demand guidance process at the timing between the times t-1 and t.

  In the conventional method, the power amount is predicted by a method of extrapolating with the moving average of the total power amount obtained just before, so that the power amount at time t and t + 1 as shown by the broken line shown in the upper graph of FIG. Predicted to decrease from time t-1. However, because the production volume actually increased, the amount of power increased as shown by the solid line, which was largely out of prediction.

  On the other hand, according to the power supply and demand guidance process of the present embodiment, since the arithmetic processing unit 220 performs power amount prediction according to the increase in production volume, as shown by the dotted line in the upper graph of FIG. It can be seen that a predicted value closer to the actual value than the predicted value was obtained.

Further, as shown in FIG. 8, the prediction error of power demand by the conventional method is σ4.6 MWh, but as shown in FIG. 9, the prediction error by this method is σ1.7 MWh. From this, it can be seen that the prediction error of this method is smaller than that of the conventional method, and a predicted value close to the actual value is obtained. 8 and 9, the vertical axis represents the predicted value of the electric energy, the horizontal axis represents the actual value of the electric energy, and R ² in the graph is the determination coefficient.

  10 to 12 are examples of guidance screens for the power purchase amount, where the vertical axis represents the cumulative power purchase amount and the horizontal axis represents time. In the conventional method, as shown in FIG. 10, the cumulative power purchase amount 25 minutes ahead (at 60 minutes) at the time of 35 minutes is predicted to be 77 MWh. Therefore, the conventional method has an error of 13 MWh as compared with the actual value 90 MWh of the accumulated power purchase amount at 60 minutes shown in FIG. On the other hand, in this method, as shown in FIG. 11, the accumulated power purchase amount 25 minutes ahead (at 60 minutes) at the time of 35 minutes is predicted to be 96 MWh, and the error from the actual value is 6 MWh. Therefore, it can be seen that, even in the prediction of the accumulated power purchase amount, the present method has a prediction error smaller than that of the conventional method, and a predicted value close to the actual value is obtained.

  In the above embodiment, the ironworks having the power network for the two manufacturing factories shown in FIG. 1 has been described as an example, but the present invention is not limited to this, and three or more manufacturing factories are included. It can also be applied to the target power grid.

  As described above, the power supply / demand guidance apparatus and the power supply / demand guidance method according to the present invention can predict the amount of power used in a steelworks with high accuracy, and can be applied to a steelworks equipped with power generation equipment.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 101 Electric power network 102 Electric power network in steelworks 103 Transmission line 104 A factory 105 B factory 106 Other demand sources 107 In-house power plant 108 Energy management facility 109 Electric power company power plant 200 Electricity supply / demand guidance apparatus 210 Main body 220 Operation processing section 221 Production plan acquisition section 222 Power prediction unit 223 Electricity purchase amount determination unit 224 Alarm notification unit 225 Visualization unit 230 ROM
231 Electricity supply and demand guidance program 240 RAM
250 Transmission path 261 Data collection device 262 Database (DB)
263 Monitor 264 Input device 265 Transmission path 271 A factory server 272 B factory server 273 Energy management server 281 Process computer 282 Manufacturing equipment

Claims (3)

A production plan acquisition means for acquiring a production plan of a product at a manufacturing plant belonging to a steel works;
Based on the acquired production plan, calculate the predicted power amount that predicts the power amount used in each manufacturing plant in time series, and add the calculated predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant to predict the entire steel plant Power prediction means for calculating the amount of power;
A power generation purchase amount determining means for determining a power generation amount to be self-generated based on a predicted power amount of the entire steel works and a predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant, a power purchase amount purchased from an electric power company, and a product production reduction rate ,
Visualization means for displaying a time series change of the predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted power amount of the entire steel plant, the generated power amount, the purchased power amount, and the production reduction ratio on the monitor,
Alarm notification means for notifying the effect of production reduction;
An electric power supply and demand guidance device comprising: The production plan acquisition means acquires a heating furnace extraction plan of a hot rolling factory,
The electric power prediction means calculates predicted electric power in which the amount of electric power used in each manufacturing factory is predicted in a time series using a hot rolling electric power equation based on the acquired heating furnace extraction plan. Electricity supply and demand guidance device described in 1. A production plan acquisition step for acquiring a production plan for a product at a manufacturing plant belonging to a steel works;
Based on the acquired production plan, calculate the predicted power amount that predicts the power amount used in each manufacturing plant in time series, and add the calculated predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant to predict the entire steel plant A power prediction step for calculating the amount of power;
A power generation purchase amount determination step for determining a power generation amount to be generated in-house based on a predicted power amount of the entire steel works and a predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant, a power purchase amount purchased from an electric power company, and a product production reduction ratio; ,
Visualization step of displaying on the monitor the predicted power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted power amount of the entire steel plant, the generated power amount, the purchased power amount, and the time-series change in the production reduction ratio;
An alarm notification step for notifying the effect of production reduction;
Electric power supply and demand guidance method characterized by including.

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