JP2013059204A - Power demand method and power demand device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power demand method and a power demand device calculating an estimated power consumption while taking account of power consumption estimated to be consumed when a power consumption apparatus is operated based on an operation plan.SOLUTION: The power demand device comprises power consumption estimation means 4 for setting the reference conditions when estimating power usage during a predetermined period on the basis of an observed value of power consumption at the time nearest to an estimation start point in time of power consumption, the apparatus information recorded in apparatus data recording means 2, and an operation plan acquired by operation plan acquisition means 3, for calculating an amount of change in the reference conditions by comparing the reference conditions with the operation plan after the estimation start point in time, and for estimating power usage in a predetermined section on the basis of the amount of change thus calculated and the apparatus information.

Description

  The present invention relates to a power demand method and a power demand device for suppressing power consumption of a power consuming device in a facility such as a building within a planned amount.

  Power demand control predicts the power consumption of a target building within a predetermined interval, and controls the operation of power consuming equipment so that it does not exceed the target power consumption planned in advance at the end of the predetermined interval. It is. The power consuming device is, for example, an air conditioner installed in a building, and the power consuming device is controlled to be activated or stopped by an individual control program.

  In conventional power demand control, for example, the power consumption amount of a power consuming device is acquired and accumulated every predetermined time, and the predicted power consumption is calculated based on the actually used power consumption. When the amount is predicted to exceed the target power consumption planned in advance, the operation of the power consuming device is controlled so as not to exceed the target power consumption. Specifically, it generates power demand data that indicates power cutoff according to the target power consumption excess, determines the equipment to be stopped according to the operator's request, and gives priority to the start / stop of the equipment to be stopped There has been proposed a power demand device that presents rank, cutoff level information, scheduled cutoff time, and the like (for example, see Patent Document 1). Thereby, actual power consumption can be suppressed below the target power consumption.

Japanese Patent No. 9-215193

  Since the conventional power demand device is configured as described above, on the condition that the usage rate does not change from the actual value of the actually used power consumption, in order to calculate the predicted power consumption from the actual value, There was a problem that the accuracy of the calculated predicted power consumption was low. That is, there is a problem that even if the power consumption device is controlled based on the calculated predicted power consumption, it cannot be controlled below the planned target power consumption.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and is expected to be consumed when the power consuming device is operated based on the operation plan in the future, based on the actual measurement value of the power consumption of the power consuming device. An object of the present invention is to provide a power demand method and a power demand device that calculate a predicted power consumption amount in consideration of the power amount.

  A power demand method according to claim 1 of the present invention includes a step of acquiring and recording device information including at least a device type and a rated power of a power consuming device, a step of acquiring an operation plan of the power consuming device, and a prediction start Based on the measured power consumption, device information, and operation plan immediately before the time, set the reference conditions for predicting the power consumption for a given period, and set the reference conditions and the operation plan after the prediction start time. And a step of calculating a change amount with respect to a reference condition by comparison, and predicting a power usage amount in a predetermined section based on the calculated change amount and device information.

  The power demand method according to claim 2 of the present invention includes a step of re-predicting the power usage based on the changed operation plan when it is determined that the operation plan has changed after the prediction start time. It is.

  In the power demand method according to claim 3 of the present invention, when it is determined that a change has occurred in the load of the power consuming device, the most recent measured value of power consumption and the device state at the time of the change in the load are acquired. Then, the reference condition is reset and the reset reference condition is compared with the operation plan after the load change to calculate the change amount for the reset reference condition, and the calculated change amount and device information And re-predicting the power usage amount of the predetermined section based on the above.

  A power demand method according to claim 4 of the present invention divides a predetermined section into a plurality of time zones, compares the operation plan of each divided time zone with a reference condition, and obtains a change with respect to the initial condition and its change amount. And predicting the amount of power used in each time zone based on the acquired amount of change and the rated power of the power consuming device.

  A power demand device according to claim 5 of the present invention is a device information recording means for acquiring and recording device information including at least a device type and rated power of a power consuming device, and an operation plan for acquiring an operation plan of the power consuming device. Based on the acquisition means, the actual measured value of power consumption immediately before the start of prediction of power consumption, the device information recorded in the device information recording means, and the operation plan acquired by the operation plan acquisition means, the power usage for a predetermined period Set the reference condition for predicting the amount, compare the reference condition with the operation plan after the prediction start time, calculate the change amount for the reference condition, and based on the calculated change amount and the equipment information, A power consumption amount predicting means for predicting the power consumption amount.

  The power demand device according to claim 6 of the present invention, when it is determined that the operation plan has changed after the prediction start time, re-predicts the power consumption based on the changed operation plan. Is provided.

  When it is determined that a change has occurred in the load of the power consuming device, the power demand device according to claim 7 of the present invention acquires the actual measured value and the device state of the most recent power consumption at the time when the load has changed. Then, the reference condition is reset and the reset reference condition is compared with the operation plan after the load change to calculate the change amount for the reset reference condition, and the calculated change amount and device information The power consumption amount predicting means for re-predicting the power usage amount of the predetermined section based on the above is provided.

  A power demand device according to claim 8 of the present invention divides a predetermined section into a plurality of time zones, compares the operation plan of each divided time zone with a reference condition, calculates a change amount with respect to an initial condition, and calculates The apparatus includes a power consumption amount predicting unit that predicts the power consumption amount of each time zone based on the changed amount and the device information.

  According to the first and fifth aspects of the present invention, the power usage amount for a predetermined period is predicted based on the actual measurement value, the device information, and the operation plan of the power consumption immediately before the prediction of the power consumption amount of the power consuming device. Set a reference condition for the operation, compare the reference condition with the operation plan after the prediction start time, calculate the amount of change with respect to the reference condition, and based on the calculated change amount and device information, the amount of power used in the predetermined section Therefore, it is possible to calculate the power usage amount considering the device information for each power device according to the operation plan of the power consuming device, and to suppress the fluctuation of the predicted power usage amount. .

  According to the second and sixth aspects of the present invention, when it is determined that the operation plan has changed after the prediction start time, the power usage amount is re-predicted based on the changed operation plan. The amount of power used can be predicted according to the status of the operation plan of the power consuming device. Thereby, it is possible to confirm the interruption of unnecessary power consuming devices and excessive use of power each time without exceeding a preset target power amount.

  According to the third and seventh aspects of the present invention, when it is determined that a change has occurred in the load of the power consuming device, the most recent measured value of power consumption and the device state at the time when the change has occurred in the load are acquired. The reference condition is reset, the reset reference condition is compared with the operation plan after the time when the load changes, and the amount of change with respect to the reset reference condition is calculated. Since the power consumption amount of the predetermined section is re-predicted based on the power consumption amount, the power consumption amount can be predicted according to the change in the load of the power consuming device. As a result, it is possible to check each time whether an unnecessary power consuming device is cut off or power is excessively used without exceeding a preset target power amount.

  According to the fourth and eighth aspects of the present invention, the predetermined section is divided into a plurality of time zones, the operation plan of each divided time zone is compared with the reference condition, and the change with respect to the initial condition and its change amount are acquired. Since it is configured to predict the power usage for each time period based on the acquired amount of change and the rated power of the power consuming device, it is possible to predict the power usage finely based on the operation plan of the power consuming device. And more accurate power consumption can be predicted.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power demand device according to the first embodiment. 5 is a flowchart showing an operation of a power consumption prediction unit of the power demand device according to the first embodiment. It is a figure which shows the apparatus information list which the electric power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1 records. It is a figure which shows an example of the driving schedule of the apparatus which the electric power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1 records. It is explanatory drawing which shows the calculation result of the prediction power consumption of the power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1. FIG. It is explanatory drawing which shows the calculation result of the prediction power consumption of the power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the driving schedule of the apparatus which the electric power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1 records. It is explanatory drawing which shows the calculation result of the prediction power consumption of the power demand apparatus by Embodiment 1. FIG.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power demand apparatus according to the first embodiment.
The power demand apparatus 10 includes a power consumption amount acquisition unit 1, a device data recording unit 2, an operation plan recording unit 3, a power consumption amount prediction unit 4, and a target power amount setting unit 5. The power demand device 10 includes a power consuming device 20 including a plurality of devices that consume power (devices 21a, 21b, ..., 21n, hereinafter collectively referred to as a device group 21), and A control device 30 that performs operation control of the device group 21 based on the power consumption predicted by the power demand device 10 is externally connected. Note that the operation control of the device group 21 may be configured to be automatically controlled by the control device 30 or may be configured to be controlled manually by the user.

  The power consumption amount acquisition means 1 acquires the power consumption amount of the device group 21 such as an air conditioner, an elevator, a crime prevention facility, and a lighting installed in a building or the like. The acquired power consumption amount is recorded in a storage area (not shown) such as a memory unit. The power consumption is measured by a power meter installed in the device group 21 or the like. The device data recording means 2 records in advance device data of the device group 21 that consumes power, and holds it as, for example, a device list. Details of the device data will be described later. The operation plan recording unit 3 reads out and records the operation schedule of the device group 21 with reference to the device data recorded in the device data recording unit 2. An operation schedule is set in advance for the device group 21, and an operation / stop time schedule is determined.

The power consumption amount prediction unit 4 acquires the power consumption amount of the device group 21 stored in the storage area of the power consumption amount acquisition unit 1 as the actual power consumption amount, and stores the actual power consumption amount and the operation plan recording unit 3. Based on the recorded operation schedule, the predicted power consumption for a preset time period of one cycle is calculated from the operating state of the device group 21 in the predetermined time period and the influence on the power consumption ratio in the predetermined time period. . The target power amount setting means 5 has contract power information, and sets the target power amount based on the contract power.
The power consumption amount predicting means 4 determines, for example, whether the calculated predicted power consumption amount is equal to or less than the target power amount set by the target power amount setting means 5, or the predicted power consumption amount is the target power amount. If it is equal to or less than the power amount, the power amount until the target power amount is reached is calculated, and if it is larger than the target power amount, the excess amount relative to the target power amount is calculated. Further, only the predicted power consumption amount may be output, or the predicted power consumption amount and information indicating whether it is equal to or less than the target power amount may be output together.

Further, the target power amount setting means 5 and the power consumption amount prediction means 4 may be configured as follows in response to power demand control having a plurality of stages of target power.
For example, when the target power is set in three stages, the target power setting means 5 sets the target power such that the first target power <the second target power <the contract power. The power consumption amount prediction unit 4 determines whether the calculated predicted power consumption amount is larger than the first target power and the second target power set by the target power amount setting unit 5. When the predicted power consumption is equal to or less than the first target power amount, the power consumption amount prediction unit 4 calculates the power amount until the first target power amount is reached. When the predicted power consumption is greater than the first target power and less than or equal to the second target power, a control instruction for issuing a preliminary alarm is output. When the predicted power consumption is larger than the second target power, a control instruction for cutting off power supply to any or all of the devices 21 is output.

  The control device 30 can be configured in various ways. For example, a device that performs power saving operation in the device group 21 according to the amount of power that is input from the power consumption prediction unit 4 and reaches the target power amount, for example. Control is performed such as returning to normal operation or operating a stopped device. On the other hand, control such as stopping the device group 21 or switching to power saving operation is performed according to the excess amount with respect to the target power amount.

Next, the operation will be described.
FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power demand apparatus according to the first embodiment.
The power consumption amount acquiring unit 1 periodically acquires the power consumption amount of the power consuming device 20 (step ST1). The power consumption amount prediction means 4 determines whether or not a preset power consumption amount prediction timing has been reached (step ST2). When the power consumption prediction timing has not been reached (step ST2; NO), the power consumption amount prediction means 4 has further changed the load of other equipment or has the operation schedule recorded in the operation plan recording means 3 changed. It is determined whether or not (step ST3). When there is no load fluctuation of other devices and the operation schedule is not changed (step ST3; NO), the flowchart returns to the process of step ST1 and repeats the above-described process.

  On the other hand, when the power consumption prediction timing is reached (step ST2; YES), or when there is a load fluctuation in another device or when the operation schedule is changed (step ST3; YES), the power consumption amount prediction means 4 The power consumption acquired by the power consumption acquisition means 1 is acquired as the actual power consumption (step ST4). Further, the power consumption amount prediction means 4 acquires the operation schedule of the power consumption equipment recorded by the operation plan recording means 3 (step ST5).

  The power consumption amount prediction means 4 predicts a power consumption amount for one cycle (for example, 30 minutes) set in advance based on the actual power consumption amount acquired in step ST4 and the operation schedule acquired in step ST5. (Step ST6). Further, the power consumption amount prediction unit 4 acquires the target power amount set by the target power amount setting unit 5 (step ST7), and determines whether the predicted power consumption amount calculated in step ST6 is equal to or less than the acquired target power amount. Is performed (step ST8). When the predicted power consumption is less than or equal to the target power consumption (step ST8; YES), the amount of power reached with respect to the target power consumption is calculated (step ST9), and the process is terminated. On the other hand, when the predicted power consumption is larger than the target power amount (step ST8; NO), the excess power amount with respect to the target power amount is calculated (step ST10), and the process ends.

Next, the power consumption prediction process in step ST6 shown in the flowchart of FIG. 2 will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power consumption prediction unit of the power demand apparatus according to the first embodiment.
The power consumption prediction means 4 acquires initial information (reference conditions) for one cycle (step ST11). Here, the initial time point constituting the initial information is a period that goes back a predetermined time (for example, 2 minutes) from the time point when the power consumption is predicted. The acquisition of initial information refers to the operation schedule acquired from the operation plan recording unit 3 to acquire the device state at the initial time point (hereinafter referred to as the initial device state), and acquired from the power consumption acquisition unit 1 Based on the actual amount of power used and the rated power of the power consuming device recorded in the device data recording means 2, the ratio of the power consumption at the initial time (hereinafter referred to as the initial power consumption ratio) and from the start of one cycle It is to acquire the power consumption (referred to as initial power consumption) until the end of the initial time point. The device state is information indicating “running” or “stopped” of the device.

  The power consumption amount predicting means 4 refers to the operation schedule and acquires the device state in the time zone to be predicted (step ST12). Based on the device state acquired in step ST12, the amount of change in the power consumption ratio and the power consumption ratio in the time zone to be predicted are calculated (step ST13). Further, based on the change amount of the power consumption ratio and the power consumption ratio calculated in step ST13, the predicted power consumption amount at the end of the time zone to be predicted is calculated (step ST14). Thereafter, the power consumption amount predicting means 4 determines whether or not processing has been performed for all the time zones constituting one cycle (step ST15). When the process is not performed for all time zones (step ST15; NO), the process returns to step ST12 and the above-described process is repeated. On the other hand, when processing is performed for all time zones (step ST15; YES), the predicted power consumption amount in the last time zone of one cycle is set as the predicted power consumption amount for the one cycle (step ST16), and the processing ends. .

Next, a specific example will be described along the above-described flowchart of FIG.
First, FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a list of device information recorded by the device data recording unit of the power demand apparatus according to the first embodiment.
The device information list includes a device number, a device name, a device rating, a device operation schedule, and the like. Device No. 1 “air conditioner 1st floor-west” is rated 150 kW, has an operation schedule that starts at 7:50 and stops at 8:20, and further starts at 11:00 and stops at 14:00. Yes. Device No. No. 2 “air conditioner 1st floor-east” has a rating of 300 kW and an operation schedule for 50% intermittent operation is set. Here, 50% intermittent operation is, for example, one cycle of 8: 00-8: 30, and the total of 8: 00-8: 05, 8: 10-8: 15, 8: 20-8: 25 It will only run for 15 minutes. Device No. No. 3, “air conditioner 2nd floor-west” has a rating of 75 kW, and has an operation schedule that starts at 8:05 and stops at 10:00, and further starts at 12:00 and stops at 15:00. Yes.

FIG. 5 shows the device No. described in the device information list shown in FIG. 1 to No. It is an example which shows the driving schedule of 3 apparatus. In the following description, an example will be described in which 30 minutes is defined as one cycle, and the one cycle is divided by a time zone (5 minutes) to be predicted.
In the operation schedule shown in FIG. 5, the device 1 rated 150 kW operates from 8:00 to 8:20, stops after 8:20, and the device 2 rated 300 kW operates 50% intermittently every 5 minutes. The device 3 having a rating of 75 kW stops from 8:00 to 8:05, and after 8:05, the schedule for operation is described.

FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a calculation result of the predicted power consumption when the device is operated based on the operation schedule illustrated in FIG. 5, and FIG. 6A is used for the calculated predicted power consumption and the calculation thereof. Information and values are shown, and FIG. 6B is a graph showing the predicted power consumption.
First, the power consumption prediction unit 4 acquires initial information of one cycle as step ST11. In FIG. 6, the initial time point is the latest 2 minutes after 5 minutes from time 8:00, the initial power consumption rate for the last 2 minutes is 10 kW / minute, and the time when 5 minutes have elapsed from time 8:00 Assume that the initial power consumption is 100 kWh.

Next, as step ST12, the device state for 5 to 10 minutes is acquired. The process will be described with reference to FIG.
FIG. 6A shows each time zone in one cycle, device name, initial device state, device state in each time zone, change amount of power consumption ratio with respect to initial power consumption rate, power consumption rate in each time zone, and each It consists of the predicted power consumption at the end of the time zone.
The device state acquired in the time zone 5 to 10 minutes based on FIG. 6A is that the device 1 is operating, the device 2 is stopped, and the device 3 is operating.

Next, as step ST13, the amount of change in the power consumption ratio and the power consumption ratio are calculated for the time period 5-10 minutes.
Specifically, when the device state “device 1 is in operation, device 2 is stopped, and device 3 is in operation” acquired in step ST12 is compared with the initial device state, device 1 has no change in the operation state and the power consumption ratio The amount of change of “0”, the change of the power consumption rate is “−300 kW / 60 minutes = −5 kW / min” because the device 2 changes from operation to stop, and the device 3 changes from stop to operation The amount of change in the power consumption ratio is “75 kW / 60 minutes = 1.25 kW / minute”.
The power consumption rate is obtained by adding the amount of change in the power consumption rate obtained above to the initial power consumption rate of 10 kW / min.

Next, as step ST14, the predicted power consumption at the end of the time period of 5 to 10 minutes is calculated. The predicted power consumption at the end of the time period is calculated based on the following equation (1).
P = Pb + Pr × t × (60 / ts) (1)
In the above formula (1), P is the predicted power consumption (kWh) at the end of the time zone, Pb is the predicted power consumption (kW / min) at the end of the previous time zone, ts is the time (minutes) of one cycle, Pr represents the power consumption rate (kWh / min), and t represents the time (min) of each time zone.
When each condition of 5 to 10 minutes shown in FIG. 6A is applied to the above equation (1), the predicted power consumption at the end of the time period becomes the following value.
P = 100 + 6.25 × 5 × (60/30) = 162.5

  Next, as step ST15, it is determined whether or not all time zones from time 8:05 to 8:30 have been processed. If not, the processing returns to step ST12, and similarly, the time zones 10 to 10 are processed. The predicted power consumption at the end of each time zone is calculated for 15 minutes, 15-20 minutes, 20-25 minutes, 25-30 minutes. Thereafter, as step ST16, the predicted power consumption at the end of the time period of 25 to 30 minutes, which is the final time period of one cycle, is set as the predicted power consumption of the one cycle.

FIG. 6B is a graph showing the predicted power consumption, the solid line indicates the predicted power consumption calculated by the power consumption prediction unit 4 of the first embodiment, and the dotted line indicates the predicted power consumption calculated by the conventional method. Indicates the amount. In the conventional calculation method, it is assumed that the initial power consumption ratio does not change in one cycle, and the predicted power consumption is calculated based on the following formula (2) using the initial power consumption ratio and the initial power consumption.
P ′ = Pi + Pir × (ts−tf) × (60 / ts) (2)
In the above equation (2), P ′ is the predicted power consumption (kWh) at the end of the time zone, Pi is the initial power consumption (kWh), ts is the time (minutes) of one cycle, and Pir is the initial power consumption ratio ( kW / min) and tf indicate the time (min) up to the initial point.

When the initial power consumption rate of 10 kW / min, the initial power consumption of 100 kWh, and the time of 5 minutes until the initial time in the specific example shown in FIG. 6A are applied to the above equation (2), the conventional predicted power consumption is as follows: It is calculated as follows.
P ′ = 100 + 10 × 25 × (60/30) = 600

When the target power amount is, for example, 500 kWh, the predicted power consumption amount calculated by the power consumption amount prediction unit 4 in consideration of the operation schedule of the device group 21 is 450 kWh, which is equal to or less than the target power amount. On the other hand, the predicted power consumption calculated by the conventional method that does not consider the operation schedule of the device group 21 is 600 kWh, exceeds the target power amount 500 kWh, and the power amount control of the device group 21 by the control device 30 is performed.
As described above, in the example illustrated in FIG. 6, the predicted power consumption is appropriately suppressed as compared with the conventional calculation method by calculating the predicted value with less fluctuation in consideration of the operation schedule of the device group 21. Control such as unnecessary power interruption for the device group 21 can be suppressed.

Next, the predicted power consumption when the operation schedule and the device state cannot be acquired in the device group 21 of the power consuming device 20 (for example, the device 21a) and the operation state of the device 21a changes and the load fluctuates. The calculation of the amount will be described.
FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a calculation result of the predicted power consumption when the device is operated based on the operation schedule illustrated in FIG. 5, and FIG. 7A is used for the calculated predicted power consumption and the calculation thereof. Information and values are shown, and FIG. 7B is a graph showing the predicted power consumption.
First, the power consumption prediction means 4 acquires initial information of one cycle as step ST11. In FIG. 7, the initial time point is the latest 2 minutes when 8 minutes have passed since the time 8:00, the initial power consumption rate for the latest 2 minutes is 5 kW / minute, and the time when 8 minutes have passed since the time 8:00 Assume that the initial power consumption is 150 kWh. This initial information is reset after the operating state of the device 21a changes, the load fluctuates, and the power consumption ratio changes.

  Thereafter, the power consumption amount predicting means 4 repeats the processing from step ST12 to step ST15 described above, and calculates the predicted power consumption amount (kwh) at the end of each time slot shown in FIG. In the example of FIG. 7A, since the initial time point is the time point when 8 minutes have elapsed from the time 8:00, the predicted power consumption at the end of the time zone in the time zone 5 to 10 minutes is from 8 minutes to 10 minutes. Of 2 minutes. As step ST16, the predicted power consumption 420 kWh at the end of the time zone 25 to 30 minutes in FIG. 7A is the predicted power consumption of one cycle.

FIG. 7B is a graph showing the predicted power consumption. The solid line indicates the predicted power consumption calculated by the power consumption prediction unit 4 of the first embodiment, and the dotted line indicates the predicted power consumption calculated by the conventional method. Indicates the amount. Using the initial power consumption rate of 5 kW / min and the initial power consumption of 150 kWh, the predicted power consumption is calculated as follows based on the above equation (2).
P ′ = 150 + 5 × 22 × (60/30) = 370

  When the target power amount is, for example, 500 kWh, the predicted power consumption amount calculated by the power consumption amount prediction unit 4 in consideration of the operation schedule of the device group 21 is 420 kWh, which is equal to or less than the target power amount. On the other hand, the predicted power consumption calculated by the conventional method not considering the operation schedule of the device group 21 is 370 kWh, which is lower than the predicted power consumption calculated by the power consumption prediction unit 4. In this case, there is a possibility that the amount of electric power reached up to the target electric energy is estimated to be large, and use of electric power exceeding the target electric energy may occur. As described above, in the example illustrated in FIG. 7, the predicted value with less blur is obtained in consideration of the initial power consumption ratio after the load of the device 21 a whose operation schedule and device state cannot be acquired and the operation schedule of the device group 21 are considered. By calculating, overuse of the electric energy by the device group 21 can be suppressed as compared with the conventional calculation method.

  Next, calculation of the predicted power consumption when the power consumption ratio changes due to a change in the operation schedule of the power consuming device 20 during one cycle will be described. The operation schedule can be changed, for example, when the operation schedule of a device that has been performing power saving operation due to a change in room temperature is returned to normal.

8 shows the device No. described in the device information list shown in FIG. 1 to No. It is an example which shows the driving schedule of 3 apparatus. As in the example described above, an example will be described in which 30 minutes is defined as one cycle, and the one cycle is divided by a time zone (5 minutes) to be predicted.
In the operation schedule shown in FIG. 8, the device 1 rated 150 kW operates from 8:00 to 8:20, stops after 8:20, and the device 2 rated 300 kW operates 50% intermittently every 5 minutes. However, due to the change in room temperature, the intermittent operation is stopped after 8:15, and the device 3 rated at 75 kW is stopped from 8:00 to 8:05. Have been described.

FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a calculation result of the predicted power consumption when the device is operated based on the operation schedule illustrated in FIG. 8, and FIG. 9A is used for the calculated predicted power consumption and the calculation thereof. Information and values are shown, and FIG. 9B is a graph showing the predicted power consumption.
First, the power consumption prediction means 4 acquires initial information of one cycle as step ST11. The initial conditions in FIG. 9 are the same as those in FIG. 7, the initial power consumption rate is 5 kW / min when 8 minutes have elapsed from time 8:00, and the initial power consumption when 8 minutes have elapsed since time 8:00. Let the amount be 150 kWh. Note that, when the operation schedule is changed, the power consumption ratio does not change, so the initial information is not reset.

  Thereafter, the power consumption amount predicting means 4 repeats the processing from step ST12 to step ST15 described above, and calculates the predicted power consumption amount (kwh) at the end of each time slot shown in FIG. 9A. In the example of FIG. 9A, since the operation schedule is changed in the device 2 to stop the intermittent operation after the time 8:15, the actual value is used until the time 8:15, and the subsequent time The predicted power consumption at the end of the belt is calculated based on the changed operation schedule. As step ST16, the predicted power consumption 480 kWh at the end of the time period 25 to 30 minutes in FIG. 9A is the predicted power consumption of one cycle.

  As described above, in the example shown in FIG. 9, even if the operation schedule of the device is changed during one cycle, the predicted power consumption can be calculated along the changed operation schedule. . As a result, it is possible to accurately predict that the predicted power consumption exceeds the target power amount by stopping the intermittent operation.

  As described above, according to the first embodiment, the initial power consumption ratio at the initial time point is calculated and calculated based on the actual power consumption, the operation schedule, and the rated power of the power consumption of the power consuming device 20. Since it is configured to include the power consumption prediction means 4 that predicts the power consumption during one cycle based on the amount of change with respect to the initial power consumption ratio, the predicted power consumption with high accuracy in accordance with the operation schedule of the power consumption device Can be calculated. Accordingly, it is possible to execute efficient control of the power consuming device such as suppressing unnecessary power interruption to the power consuming device or suppressing excessive use of power by the power consuming device. Furthermore, it is possible to accurately suppress an excess of the target power amount, and an effect contributing to keeping the contract power low can be obtained.

  Moreover, according to this Embodiment 1, when it determines with the driving | running schedule having changed, the power consumption amount prediction means 4 which estimates again the electric power consumption in 1 cycle along the driving | running schedule after a change is provided. With this configuration, it is possible to calculate the predicted power consumption with high accuracy in consideration of the change in the power consumption by changing the operation schedule or stopping the intermittent operation. Furthermore, it is possible to confirm unnecessary power interruption and excessive use of power each time without exceeding a preset target power amount.

  Moreover, according to this Embodiment 1, the consumption which estimates the electric power consumption in 1 cycle again using the power consumption ratio which fluctuated by the change of the load of the power consumption apparatus which cannot acquire an operation schedule and an apparatus state. Since the power amount predicting unit 4 is provided, it is possible to calculate the predicted power consumption according to the external situation. Furthermore, it is possible to confirm unnecessary power interruption and excessive use of power each time without exceeding a preset target power amount.

  Moreover, according to this Embodiment 1, since it comprised so that the power consumption prediction means 4 which divides | segments 1 cycle into a several time slot | zone, and calculates the predicted power consumption amount in each time slot | zone will be provided. Based on the operation schedule, the power consumption can be predicted in detail, and the predicted power consumption with higher accuracy can be calculated.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Power consumption acquisition means 2 Equipment data recording means 3 Operation plan recording means 4 Power consumption prediction means 5 Target power consumption setting means 10 Power demand apparatus 20 Power consumption equipment 30 Control apparatus

Claims (8)

In a power demand method for acquiring an actual measurement value of power consumption of a power consuming device and predicting a power consumption amount for a predetermined period based on the actual measurement value of the acquired power consumption amount,
A device information recording means for acquiring and recording device information including at least a device type and a rated power of the power consuming device; and
An operation plan obtaining unit obtaining an operation plan of the power consuming equipment; and
The power consumption prediction means sets a reference condition for predicting the power consumption for the predetermined period based on the measured value of the power consumption immediately before the prediction start time, the device information, and the operation plan. Comparing a reference condition with an operation plan after the prediction start time to calculate a change amount with respect to the reference condition, and predicting a power usage amount of the predetermined section based on the calculated change amount and the device information; An electric power demand method characterized by comprising. The power demand method of claim 1, comprising:
A step of re-predicting the power consumption based on the changed operation plan when the power consumption amount prediction unit determines that the operation plan has changed after the prediction start time. Power demand method characterized. The power demand method of claim 1, comprising:
When the power consumption predicting unit determines that a change has occurred in the load of the power consuming device, the measured value and device state of the latest power consumption at the time when the load has changed are obtained and the reference Reset the conditions, compare the reset reference conditions with the operation plan after the time when the load changes, calculate the change amount with respect to the reset reference condition, and calculate the change amount and the device information And re-predicting the power usage amount of the predetermined section based on the power demand method. The power demand method according to claim 1, wherein:
The power consumption prediction means divides the predetermined section into a plurality of time zones, compares the operation plan of each divided time zone with the reference condition, and acquires a change with respect to the initial condition and its change amount, A power demand method comprising: predicting a power usage amount for each time period based on the obtained change amount and the rated power of the power consuming device. In the power demand device that acquires the actual measurement value of the power consumption amount of the power consuming device and predicts the power usage amount for a predetermined period based on the actual measurement value of the acquired power consumption amount,
Device information recording means for acquiring and recording device information including at least device type and rated power of the power consuming device;
An operation plan acquisition means for acquiring an operation plan of the power consuming equipment;
Based on the actual measurement value of the power consumption immediately before the start of prediction of the power consumption, the device information recorded in the device information recording unit, and the operation plan acquired by the operation plan acquisition unit, the power usage amount for the predetermined period The reference condition for predicting the reference condition is set, the reference condition and the operation plan after the prediction start time are compared to calculate a change amount with respect to the reference condition, and based on the calculated change amount and the device information A power demand device comprising: a power consumption amount predicting means for predicting a power usage amount in a predetermined section.   The power consumption prediction means re-predicts the power consumption based on the changed operation plan when it is determined that the operation plan has changed after the prediction start time. 5. The power demand device according to 5.   When it is determined that a change has occurred in the load of the power consuming device, the power consumption prediction unit obtains a measured value and a device state of the latest power consumption at the time when the load has changed and acquires the reference Reset the conditions, compare the reset reference conditions with the operation plan after the time when the load change occurs, calculate the change amount with respect to the reset reference condition, and calculate the change amount and the device information The power demand device according to claim 5, wherein the power usage amount in the predetermined section is re-predicted based on   The power consumption prediction means divides the predetermined section into a plurality of time zones, compares the operation plan for each divided time zone with the reference condition, calculates a change amount with respect to the initial condition, and calculates the calculated change. The power demand device according to any one of claims 5 to 7, wherein the power usage amount of each time slot is predicted based on the amount and the device information.

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