JP2007202276A - Load operation estimation device, method of estimating load operation of the load operation estimation device, and power supply control device - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate a time when a load finishes a continuous operation in a load that performs the continuous operation irregularly. <P>SOLUTION: This load operation estimation device, which estimates a time when a load finishes the continuous operation after starting the continuous operation, is provided with a first obtaining portion that obtains total electric energy consumed by the load during the period from the start of the continuous operation of the load to its finish, a second obtaining portion that obtains unit electric energy consumed by the load during a unit time when the load starts the continuous operation, a third obtaining portion that obtains a start time when the load starts the continuous operation, a first calculation portion that estimates and calculates a time from the start of the continuous operation of the load up to its finish based on the total electric energy and the unit electric energy, and a second calculation portion that estimates and calculates a time when the load finishes the continuous operation based on the starting time and the period of time. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention controls a load operation prediction device that predicts a time when a load ends a continuous operation after the load starts continuous operation, a load operation prediction method of the load operation prediction device, and a supply amount of power to the load. The present invention relates to a power supply control device.

  In general, when power is supplied to users from the power system, the central power supply command center is required to secure the necessary supply capacity (generator) for the assumed demand, maintain stable supply, and pursue economic efficiency. So-called economic load distribution control is performed. If the amount of power generation is large, stable supply is satisfied, but the economy is not good. On the other hand, if the amount of power generation is too small, stable supply cannot be maintained. Therefore, based on economic load distribution control, the supply and demand balance of electric power is balanced while ensuring an appropriate supply capacity. For example, for a moderate load fluctuation that can be predicted to some extent from the actual demand up to the previous day, such as an increase in demand in the morning in the morning or a decrease during the lunch break, the power demand is satisfied based on this demand forecast. The power supply to the user is controlled while ensuring only the supply power (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

On the other hand, the central power supply command station performs so-called load frequency control for load fluctuations that occur irregularly with a period shorter than the above-described fluctuation period (see, for example, Patent Document 2). That is, when load fluctuations occur from moment to moment, a power supply amount corresponding to the fluctuations is set. Specifically, when a supply-demand difference occurs in the power system, the power supply control device at the central power supply command station sends a command signal (generated power command value) such as an increase or decrease in output to the generator, The amount of electric power supplied to is controlled.
Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 8-111935 JP 2001-238355 A

  By the way, when one of the electric power users mentioned above is, for example, a steel company and the load is an electric furnace, the total demand caused by turning on and off (start and end of continuous operation of the load) depending on the scale of the electric furnace. Power fluctuations can range over 100 MW. And this can amount to a few percent of the total power demand in the area in charge of one power system. In general, the load fluctuation accompanying the turning on and off of the electric furnace is so steep that the output change speed of the generator cannot follow. Therefore, for example, even if the load frequency control described above is performed immediately after the demand starts to decrease as the electric furnace is turned off, most of the power is excessively supplied while the output of the generator is decreasing. Therefore, this may hinder the above-described stable supply and efficient operation.

  Note that the above-described load fluctuation is not limited to the one caused by turning on / off the electric furnace, and generally, the above-described problem may occur with respect to the irregular continuous operation of the load.

  The present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and an object of the present invention is to provide a load operation prediction device capable of predicting the time at which the continuous operation ends in a load that continuously operates irregularly. is there.

  The invention for solving the above-mentioned problem is a load operation prediction device that predicts the time when the load ends the continuous operation after the load starts the continuous operation, and before the load starts the continuous operation. A first acquisition unit that acquires a total amount of power consumed from when the load starts continuous operation to when it ends, and when the load starts the continuous operation, the load is in unit time Based on the second acquisition unit that acquires the unit power amount to be consumed, the third acquisition unit that acquires the start time when the load starts the continuous operation, and the load based on the total power amount and the unit power amount Predicting the time from the start of the continuous operation to the end, and calculating the time at which the load ends the continuous operation based on the start time and the time. A second calculation unit for calculating It made.

  According to this load operation prediction device, the first acquisition unit acquires in advance the total power amount S in the continuous operation E before the start of the continuous operation F, for example. When the load starts the continuous operation F, the second acquisition unit acquires the unit power amount Q in the continuous operation F, and the third acquisition unit acquires the start time t1 of the continuous operation F. The first calculation unit calculates a time T from the start of the continuous operation F to the end thereof as a predicted value based on the total power amount S and the unit power amount Q. The second calculation unit adds, for example, time T to the start time t1, and calculates the end time t2 (= t1 + T) of the continuous operation F as a predicted value. From the above, even if the continuous operation F is irregular, the end time t2 can be calculated. That is, it is possible to predict a time at which the continuous operation ends in a load that continuously operates irregularly.

Further, in the load operation prediction device, the total electric energy is consumed before the load starts the continuous operation and before the load starts a predetermined one continuous operation and ends. It may be the amount of power.
That is, the total power amount S in the continuous operation E described above may be the total power amount S in one predetermined continuous operation E. Here, the continuous operation E may be an operation performed immediately before the continuous operation F, or an operation in which another continuous operation E ′, E ″ or the like is performed between the continuous operation E and the continuous operation F. For example, if it is a load that performs continuous operation of a substantially equal total power amount a plurality of times in one day, if the first acquisition unit acquires the total power amount of the first continuous operation in one day, The second acquisition unit can predict and calculate the times of the second and subsequent times only by acquiring the subsequent unit electric energy.

Further, in the load operation prediction device, the total electric energy is the amount of electric power consumed before the load starts the continuous operation and after the load starts a plurality of continuous operations until it ends. It is good also as that it is the average electric energy.
That is, the total power amount S in the above-described continuous operation E is the average power amount of the total power amounts S ′ and S ″ in a plurality of continuous operations E ′ and E ″ (for example, S = (S ′ + S ″) / 2). For example, if the average electric energy is updated each time the times are repeated, the prediction accuracy of the end time is further improved as the times are increased.

In the load motion prediction apparatus, it is preferable that the time from when the load starts the continuous operation to when it ends is a value obtained by dividing the total power amount by the unit power amount.
For example, if it is assumed that the total power amount of the continuous operation F that has not yet been completed is substantially equal to the total power amount of the continuous operation E and that the time variation of the unit power amount in the continuous operation F is small, the first The calculation unit can divide the total power amount S by the unit power amount Q and obtain the time T from the start of the continuous operation F to the end thereof as S / Q.

In the load operation prediction apparatus, it is preferable that the load is an electric furnace.
For example, the electric furnace may perform a continuous operation of approximately the same total electric energy several times in one day, so that if the first acquisition unit acquires the total electric energy of continuous operation in a certain time in one day, the second When the acquisition unit acquires the unit power amount of continuous operation in subsequent times on the same day, the first calculation unit can predict and calculate the operation time of continuous operation in subsequent times.

  The invention for solving the problem is a load operation prediction method of a load operation prediction device that predicts a time at which the load ends the continuous operation after the load starts continuous operation. Before starting the continuous operation, obtain the total amount of power consumed from the start of the continuous operation to the end of the load, and the load is a unit when the load starts the continuous operation The unit power amount consumed in time is acquired, the start time when the load starts the continuous operation is acquired, and the load starts the continuous operation based on the total power amount and the unit power amount. The time from the start to the end is calculated by prediction, and the time at which the load ends the continuous operation is calculated based on the start time and the time.

  Moreover, the invention for solving the above-described problem is a first acquisition unit that acquires the total amount of power consumed between the start of the continuous operation and the end of the load before the load starts the continuous operation. A second acquisition unit that acquires a unit power amount consumed by the load per unit time when the load starts the continuous operation; and a third acquisition unit that acquires a start time when the load starts the continuous operation. An acquisition unit; a first calculation unit that predicts and calculates a time from when the load starts to the end based on the total power amount and the unit power amount; and the start time Based on the time, a second calculation unit that predicts and calculates an end time at which the load ends the continuous operation, and controls timing to stop power supply to the load based on the end time And a power supply comprising A control device.

  According to this power supply control device, the control unit is configured to control the power based on the end time in accordance with the decrease rate of the unit power amount accompanying the end of the continuous operation of the load and the decrease rate of the power supply amount to the load. By setting the supply stop timing, it is possible to reduce the power supply-demand difference for the load. As an example, when the decrease rate of the unit power amount of the load is faster than the decrease rate of the power supply amount, the control unit starts to decrease the power supply amount before the end time. This control can suppress an excessive supply of electric power, for example, compared to a control (follow-up control) in which the supply amount of electric power is started to decrease simultaneously with the end of the continuous operation of the load.

  The time at which the continuous operation ends in a load that continuously operates irregularly can be predicted.

=== Load Operation Prediction Device ===
With reference to FIG. 1, a configuration example of the load motion prediction device 10 of the present exemplary embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration example of the generator 1, the load 2, the load operation prediction device 10, and the power supply control device 20 according to the present embodiment.

  In the present embodiment, power can be supplied from the generator 1 of the power plant to the user's load 2 through the transmission / distribution line 3, and the generator 1 can control the power supply through a predetermined communication line (not shown). 20. In the present embodiment, the power supply control device 20 is installed at the central power supply command station together with the load operation prediction device 10. When the worker at the central power supply command station recognizes in advance the start and end of the load operation through the speaker 120 or the display 130 (to be described later) of the load operation prediction device 10, the output to the generator 1 through the power supply control device 20 is increased. The amount of power supplied to the load 2 is controlled by transmitting a command signal (generated power command value) such as a descent.

  As illustrated in FIG. 1, the load motion prediction apparatus 10 according to the present exemplary embodiment includes a control unit (first acquisition unit, second acquisition unit, third acquisition unit, first calculation unit, second calculation unit) 100. A receiving unit 110, a speaker 120, a display 130, a timer 140, a ROM 150, and a RAM 160.

The control unit 100 manages and manages the receiving unit 110, the speaker 120, the display 130, the timer 140, the ROM 150, and the RAM 160, and mainly determines the start time and end time of the operation based on the load information from the load 2. It has a function of predicting and notifying the prediction result.
The receiving unit 110 has a function of receiving load information (for example, power amount described later) transmitted from the load 2 through a predetermined communication line (not shown).
The speaker 120 and the display 130 are for notifying the worker of information indicating the start and end of the load operation (predicted start time, predicted end time, etc.).
The timer 140 measures, for example, the actual start time and end time of the load operation.
The ROM 150 stores a program for the control unit 100 to perform the above-described prediction and the like.
The RAM 160 includes load information data 160a composed of a unit power amount consumed by the load 2 per unit time (for example, 10 seconds to be described later), a signal indicating the start of the operation of the load 2, and the operation start conditions in the load information data 160a. Operation start condition data 160b indicating the total power amount data 160c indicating the total power amount consumed by the load 2 per operation.

<<< Load information data and operation start condition data >>>
A configuration example of the load information data 160c stored in the RAM 160 will be described with reference to FIG. This figure is a chart showing a configuration example of the load information data 160a brought about by the electric furnace as the load 2. The load information data 160a illustrated in the figure includes information transmitted from the load 2 according to a predetermined agreement between the steel company and the power company when the load 2 is an electric furnace. Specifically, the load information data 160a is configured by associating so-called state change information such as unit power, electric furnace furnace door closing signal, electric furnace steeling signal, etc., with date / time. Yes.

  According to the predetermined arrangement described above, the electric furnace as the load 2 is provided with a predetermined detection unit (not shown) that detects the amount of electric power (unit electric energy) consumed for 10 seconds (unit time), for example. The detected unit electric energy is converted into a voltage, and is transmitted to the receiving unit 110 every 10 seconds through the predetermined communication line described above together with information indicating the date and time. Note that the unit time for giving the unit power is not limited to 10 seconds. Further, the information indicating the date / time is not necessarily information given from the electric furnace, and may be information obtained by the timer 140 described above, for example.

  Further, according to the above-mentioned predetermined arrangement, the electric furnace as the load 2 outputs a predetermined voltage when the furnace door is closed (“furnace door closing signal ON”), and outputs a predetermined voltage when steel is output. A predetermined output section (not shown) is provided ("steel output signal ON"). Each time these voltages are output from the output unit, they are transmitted to the receiving unit 110 together with the unit power amount output in synchronization with the output.

  In FIG. 2, there is a predetermined correlation between the furnace door closing signal ON and the entrance of the electric furnace (start of continuous operation of the load 2), and the steel output signal ON and the entrance of the electric furnace (load 2). It is illustrated that there is also a predetermined correlation with the start of the continuous operation. In other words, the electric furnace enters the electric furnace after a predetermined time from the furnace door close signal ON, and enters the electric furnace after the predetermined time from the steel output signal ON, but these predetermined correlations are known as an empirical rule by the applicant. It is a thing. For example, when the receiving unit 110 receives a furnace door closing signal or a steel output signal, if the unit power amount received in the past predetermined time is within a predetermined range, it can be assumed that the electric furnace has entered the near future. It is known as a rule of thumb that there is a strong correlation. For this reason, the RAM 160 described above stores in advance, as the operation start condition data 160b, information indicating a unit power amount within a predetermined range within a predetermined time before receiving the furnace door closing signal or the steel output signal. The control unit 100 described above determines whether or not the load information data 160a matches the operation start condition data 160b, and if so, enters the electric furnace after a predetermined time from the reception of the furnace door closing signal or the steel output signal. The information to the effect is generated.

  Note that the operation start condition data 160b of the present embodiment is stored in advance in the RAM 160 by a worker through a predetermined terminal (not shown), for example. And this operation start condition data 160b shall be updated whenever the prediction precision based on the empirical rule mentioned above improves.

<<< Total electric energy data >>>
With reference to FIG. 3 and FIG. 4, the background that the applicant has learned as an empirical rule that the electric furnace cut-off time can be predicted using the total power amount data 160 c stored in the RAM 160 described above will be described. FIG. 3 is a time diagram showing an example of a time course over a year of unit power consumed by the electric furnace. FIG. 4 shows a time of one year of the total power consumed by the electric furnace per one continuous operation. It is a time diagram which shows an example of progress.

  In the illustration of FIG. 3, two continuous operations (“A” and “B”) of the electric furnace constitute one cycle operation of the electric furnace. In the figure, time diagrams of unit electric energy of the electric furnace for one day in the load information data 160a (FIG. 2) described above are arranged for one year. For example, on the (N−1) th day of the year, the continuous operation A and the continuous operation B having a unit electric energy whose value is distributed around Q ′ occur multiple times. Similarly, on the Nth day and the (N + 1) th day, a continuous operation having a unit power amount in which values are distributed around Q and Q ″ occurs a plurality of times. , B, the unit electric energy is kept at substantially the same value, and in the case of an electric furnace, the time required for each continuous operation A, B is, for example, several minutes to several tens of minutes.

  Generally, when materials such as scrap iron are melted in an electric furnace, the same kind of material is often melted for a certain day. For this reason, even if the unit power amount slightly deviates from Q, for example, several times on the same day, the total power amount SA (or SB) as an integral value in one continuous operation A (or B) is approximately plural times. Equality is known by the applicant as a rule of thumb. This means that for the same type of material, the energy required to dissolve the same amount is approximately equal. In the illustration of the figure, the difference in the magnitudes of the total power amounts SA and SB reflects the difference in the continuous operation time with respect to the substantially equal unit power amount Q.

As illustrated in FIG. 4, when viewed throughout the year, the total electric energy in one continuous operation A described above is distributed around SA, while the total electric power in one continuous operation B described above is distributed. The value of the electric energy is distributed around SB. The total electric energy of the continuous operation A and the continuous operation B shows a swell with a predetermined cycle in one year (approximately 3 × 10 ⁷ seconds) or one month (0.3 × 10 ⁷ seconds). × 10 ⁷ seconds), it can be regarded as almost equal.

  From the above, when the load 2 is, for example, an electric furnace, for example, on the same day, the total electric energy of the continuous operation A (or B) over a plurality of times is substantially equal and the unit in each continuous operation A (or B). It has been found that the amount of electric power is also substantially held at a predetermined value. Thus, for example, on the same day, the predicted value of the operation time of the continuous operation A (or B) of a certain electric furnace is obtained by dividing the total electric energy of the previous operation by the unit electric energy of the certain operation. It can be set as the value obtained by doing.

=== Load operation prediction method ===
A load operation prediction method by the load operation prediction apparatus 10 having the above-described configuration will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a processing procedure of the control unit 100 when the load motion prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment executes the load motion prediction method. FIG. 6 is a time diagram showing an example of a time change of the unit electric energy and the total electric energy consumed when the electric furnace as the load 2 of the present embodiment operates for one cycle.

  As illustrated in FIG. 5, every time load information is received from the load 2 by the receiving unit 110, the control unit 100 according to the present embodiment includes the load information data 160 a stored in the RAM 160 including the load information. Then, it is determined whether or not the operation start condition data 160b stored in advance in the RAM 160 is met (S100). That is, the control unit 100 determines whether or not the operation of the load 2 has started depending on whether or not the load information data 160a matches the operation start condition data 160b.

  When it is determined that the load information data 160a including the load information received in step S100 matches the operation start condition data 160b (S101: YES), the control unit 100 obtains the predicted start time of the load 2 (S102). An example of how to obtain the prediction start time is as follows. When the load 2 is an electric furnace, information indicating an estimated time from when the above-described furnace door close signal or steel output signal is received to when the electric furnace enters is stored in the RAM 160 in advance. The control unit 100 adds the prediction time to the reception time to obtain a prediction start time, and notifies the worker of the prediction start time through the speaker 120 or the display 130.

  In addition, the information which the load operation | movement prediction apparatus 10 of this Embodiment notifies to a worker is not limited to prediction start time (for example, prediction time of entering an electric furnace). For example, this information may be the time at which the worker transmits a command signal (generated power command value) such as an increase in output to the generator 1 through the power supply control device 20. Alternatively, for example, the load motion prediction device 10 may issue an alarm or the like to the worker through the speaker 120 at the time when the command signal should be transmitted. As will be described later, in general, the output increase speed of the generator 1 is slower than, for example, the increase rate of the electric power demand of the electric furnace, so that the time for transmitting the output increase command signal is relative to the predicted time for entering the electric furnace. It is necessary to set a time earlier (for example, approximately one minute before) according to the speed difference.

  Next, the control unit 100 determines whether or not the load information received by the receiving unit 110 is caused by the actual operation start of the load 2 (S103). Here, the information resulting from the actual operation start means, for example, load information corresponding to Q when the unit power amount is increased from 0 to Q in the load information data 160a (FIG. 2).

  When it is determined that the received load information is due to the actual operation start (that is, the load 2 has started the continuous operation A), the control unit 100 stores the past stored in the RAM 160 as the total power amount data 160c. The predicted operation time TA is calculated based on the total power SA in the continuous operation A and the unit power Q in the current continuous operation A received as load information by the receiving unit 110 (S104).

  As illustrated in FIG. 6, when the load 2 is an electric furnace, as described above, the two continuous operations A and B constitute one cycle operation of the electric furnace. In the illustration of the figure, the unit electric energy consumed during each of the continuous operations A and B is substantially held at a predetermined value Q. Further, as described above, it is known that the total electric energy of the continuous operations A and B is approximately equal to the predetermined values SA and SB, for example, over one day (see FIGS. 3 and 4). This is equivalent to the fact that the solid line A and the solid line B illustrated in FIG. 6 both form a straight line having a constant slope, and the heights SA and SB at the end times tA2 and tB2 are substantially equal over, for example, one day. is there. Therefore, in step S104, the time obtained by dividing the total electric energy SA obtained in the continuous operation A in the previous cycle by the unit electric energy Q obtained in the continuous operation A in the current cycle is obtained as the current time. The predicted operation time of the continuous operation A in the cycle can be used.

  Here, the total power SA of the previous cycle may be, for example, the total power obtained in one cycle before this time on one day, or a plurality of times before this time on one day, for example. It may be the average power amount of the total power amount obtained in the cycle. In this case, the one or more cycles may be, for example, a cycle immediately before the current cycle, or may be an initial cycle in one day, for example. In particular, in the case of the average power amount, for example, if the average of the total power amount obtained in all the cycles before this time in one day is taken, the accuracy of the total power amount is further improved.

  Next, the control unit 100 calculates the predicted end time tA2 (= tA1 + TA) by adding the predicted operation time TA obtained in step S104 to the actual start time tA1 of the continuous operation A in the current cycle (S105). ). Here, it is assumed that the actual start time tA1 is obtained in advance from the load information received in step S103 and stored in the RAM 160, for example.

  The control unit 100 notifies the worker of the predicted end time tA2 through the speaker 120 or the display 130. As described above, the information notified to the worker is not limited to the predicted end time (the predicted time of electric furnace cut-off), and the worker can send the information to the generator 1 through the power supply control device 20. It may be a time to transmit a command signal (generated power command value) such as a drop in output. As will be described later, in general, the output drop speed of the generator 1 is slower than, for example, the reduction rate of the demand amount of the electric furnace, so that the time when the output drop command signal is transmitted is relative to the predicted time of the electric furnace cut-off. It is necessary to set a time earlier (for example, approximately one minute before) according to the speed difference.

  Next, the control unit 100 determines whether or not the load information received by the receiving unit 110 is due to the actual operation end of the load 2 (S106). Here, the information resulting from the actual operation end means, for example, load information corresponding to 0 when the unit power amount is reduced from Q to 0 in the load information data 160a (FIG. 2).

  When it is determined that the received load information is due to the actual operation end (that is, the load 2 has ended the continuous operation A), the control unit 100 performs the above-described steps S103 to S105 for the first time ( It is determined whether the process corresponds to the continuous operation A) or the process corresponding to the second operation (continuous operation B) (S107). The first time or the second time can be identified, for example, by incrementing a predetermined counter (not shown) included in the load motion prediction apparatus 10 by one each time the processes of steps S103 to S105 are repeatedly executed.

  In addition, the control unit 100 sums the unit electric energy between the actual start time tA1 and the actual end time tA2 in the load information data 160a stored in the RAM 160, and performs the continuous operation A in the current cycle. You may obtain | require actual total electric energy SA. As described above, when the average power amount of the actual total power SA of the previous plurality of cycles is used to determine the predicted operation time TA of the current cycle, the actual total power SA of the current cycle is obtained. At this point, this is used to determine the predicted operating time TA for the next cycle.

  If the processes in steps S103 to S105 correspond to the first time (S107: NO), the control unit 100 uses, for example, a predetermined time TC stored in advance in the RAM 160 for the actual start time tA1 obtained in step S103. These are added to obtain the prediction start time tB1 of the continuous operation B (S108). Next, after notifying the worker of the predicted start time tB1 through the speaker 120 or the display 130, the control unit 100 executes the processing after step S103 as in the case of the continuous operation A described above. The predetermined time C described above is, for example, about several minutes when the load 2 is an electric furnace, and it is known as an empirical rule that this value is substantially constant.

  On the other hand, when the processes of steps S103 to S105 correspond to the second time (S107: YES), the control unit 100 executes the processes after step S100.

  Note that when the load 2 is, for example, an electric furnace, the processing of steps S100 to S108 described above is executed in the second and subsequent cycles in one day, for example.

  According to the load operation prediction device 10 of the present embodiment, for example, the total electric energy SA ′ in the continuous operation A ′ before the start of the continuous operation A is obtained in advance. When the load 2 starts the continuous operation A, the control unit 100 calculates the unit power amount Q in the continuous operation A and calculates the actual start time tA1 of the continuous operation A. Based on the total power SA ′ and the unit power Q, the control unit 100 obtains a predicted operation time TA (= SA ′ / Q) from the start of the continuous operation A to the end thereof. In addition, the control unit 100 adds the predicted operation time TA to the actual start time tA1 to obtain the predicted end time tA2 (= tA1 + TA) of the continuous operation A. Thus, the end time tA2 can be predicted regardless of whether the continuous operation A is regular or irregular.

  Here, when the load 2 is an electric furnace that performs the continuous operation of the substantially equal total electric energy a plurality of times in one day, for example, the total electric energy SA ′ of the continuous operation A ′ in the first cycle of the day is obtained, for example. Then, the control part 100 can obtain | require efficiently the estimated operation time TA in each cycle only by calculating | requiring the unit electric energy Q in each subsequent cycle. Alternatively, when the total power SA ′ is an average power amount of a plurality of total power amounts, the prediction accuracy of the operation time TA and the end time tA2 is further improved.

  In the above-described embodiment, it is assumed that the total power SA of the continuous operation A is substantially equal in a predetermined period (for example, one day) and that the time change of the unit power Q in the continuous operation A is small. Although the predicted operation time TA of the continuous operation A is obtained as SA / Q, it is not limited to this. For example, the total power SA of the continuous operation A multiple times may change with time in a known predetermined pattern. In this case, the total power amount SA of the current continuous operation A can be predicted based on the known predetermined pattern and the actual total power amount SA ′ of the previous continuous operation A ′. Further, for example, the unit power amount Q may change over time with a known predetermined pattern in the continuous operation A. In this case, the operation time TA of the current continuous operation A can be predicted based on the known predetermined pattern and the predicted total power SA of the current continuous operation A.

=== Power Supply Control Device ===
A configuration example and an operation example of the power supply control device 30 of the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 7 and 8. FIG. 7 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration example of the generator 1, the load 2, and the power supply control device 30 according to the present embodiment. FIG. 8 is a time diagram illustrating an example of a time change of the unit power amount of the load 2 and the supply amount of the power supply control device 30 according to the present embodiment. In FIG. 1 and FIG. 7, the same number is attached | subjected to the same component.

  As illustrated in FIG. 7, in the power supply control device 30 of the present embodiment, the above-described load operation prediction device 10 (FIG. 1) and the above-described power supply control device 20 (FIG. 1) can communicate with each other. It is connected. In the figure, the load operation prediction device 10 is exemplified as a load operation prediction unit (first acquisition unit, second acquisition unit, third acquisition unit, first calculation unit, second calculation unit) 11 and power supply control. The device 20 is exemplified as a power supply control unit (control unit) 21. The load operation prediction unit 11 according to the present embodiment does not need to include the speaker 120, the display 130, or the like described above, and is omitted in the figure.

  In addition to the function of obtaining the prediction start time tA1 or the prediction end time tA2 in the above-described step S102 or S105 (FIG. 5), the load operation prediction unit 11 uses the power supply control unit 21 based on these times tA1 and tA2. It has a function of obtaining times ts and te for transmitting a command signal (generated power command value) for raising or lowering its output to the generator 1. In general, the output increasing speed or the output decreasing speed of the generator 1 is slower than, for example, the increasing speed or decreasing speed of the demand amount of the electric furnace. Alternatively, it is necessary to set the time earlier according to the speed difference with respect to the predicted cutting time.

  When the power supply control unit 21 receives the above-described times ts and te from the load operation prediction unit 11, the power supply control unit 21 has a function of transmitting the generated power command value to the generator 1 at the times ts and te.

  The load operation prediction unit 11 of the present embodiment obtains the prediction start time tA1 of the continuous operation of the load 2 as in the case of the load operation prediction device 10 described above (step S102 in FIG. 5). At this time, the load operation predicting unit 11 obtains the output rise start time ts such that the time corresponding to the middle of the period required for the output rise of the generator 1 coincides with the obtained predicted start time tA1 (see FIG. 8). . According to the illustration of FIG. 8, when TS is the time from when the amount of power supplied per unit time of the generator 1 becomes 0 to the unit power amount Q of the load 2, the output rise start time ts is (tA1 −TS / 2). Since the time TS is a known value based on the output increase speed of the generator 1, it is assumed that the time is calculated by the control unit 100 as needed from the speed and Q stored in advance in the RAM 160, for example.

  When the power supply control unit 21 receives the output increase start time ts from the load operation prediction unit 11, the power supply control unit 21 transmits the generated power command value for increasing the output to the generator 1 at the time ts.

  Further, the load motion prediction unit 11 according to the present embodiment obtains the predicted end time tA2 of the continuous motion of the load 2 as in the case of the load motion prediction device 10 described above (step S105 in FIG. 5). At this time, the load operation prediction unit 11 obtains an output decrease start time te such that the time corresponding to the middle of the period required for the output decrease of the generator 1 coincides with the calculated prediction start time tA2 (see FIG. 8). . According to the illustration of FIG. 8, when the amount of power supply per unit time of the generator 1 is TE until the time from Q to 0, the output drop start time te is (tA2−TE / 2). Become. Since the time TE is a known value based on the output lowering speed of the generator 1, for example, the time TE is calculated from time to time by the control unit 100 from the speed and Q stored in advance in the RAM 160.

  When the power supply control unit 21 receives the output decrease start time te from the load operation prediction unit 11, the power supply control unit 21 transmits the generated power command value of the output decrease to the generator 1 at the time te.

  According to the power supply control device 30 of the present embodiment, if the prediction start time tA1 is correct, the excess amount of supply to the load 2 before the time tA1 and the load after the time tA1 during the output increase period of the generator 1 This is equivalent to the shortage of supply to 2. If the predicted end time tA2 is correct, the shortage of the supply amount to the load 2 before the time tA2 and the excess supply amount to the load 2 after the time tA2 coincide with each other in the output drop period of the generator 1. . That is, both stable supply of power to the load 2 and efficient operation can be optimized.

  Note that the relationship between the output rise start time ts and the output drop start time te, the prediction start time tA1, and the prediction end time tA2 described above is not limited to the example in FIG. For example, the output rise start time ts may satisfy (tA1-TS) <ts <tA1, and the output fall start time te satisfies (tA2-TE) <te <tA2. May be. In this way, the control according to the present embodiment can suppress an excessive supply of electric power, for example, compared to a control (follow-up control) in which the supply amount of electric power is started to decrease simultaneously with the end of the continuous operation of the load 2. In addition, the control according to the present embodiment can suppress power supply shortage, for example, compared to control in which the power supply amount becomes zero before the end of continuous operation of the load 2 (control that is too early).

  The above-described example is applied when the load 2 is an electric furnace or the like, and the output increase speed or output decrease speed of the generator 1 is slower than the increase speed or decrease speed of the demand power amount of the load 2. However, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, when the speed is about the same for the generator 1 and the load 2, the time ts and te substantially coincide with the times tA1 and tA2, which leads to suppression of the power supply / demand difference. Alternatively, for the load 2 in which a shortage of power supply is not allowed, for example, the output drop start time te may be set a predetermined time later than the predicted end time tA2. As described above, by setting the power supply stop timing according to the increase or decrease rate of the unit power amount of the load 2 and the increase or decrease rate of the supply amount of the generator 1, the power supply-demand difference for the load 2 can be reduced. Can be small.

  The above-described embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention is changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

It is a block diagram which shows the structural example of the generator of this Embodiment, load, load operation | movement prediction apparatus, and an electric power supply control apparatus. It is a graph which shows the structural example of the load information data which an electric furnace brings. It is a time diagram which shows an example of the time passage over one year of the unit electric energy which an electric furnace consumes, It is a time diagram which shows an example of the time passage over one year of the total electric energy which an electric furnace consumes per one continuous operation | movement. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the procedure of the process of the control part at the time of the load operation prediction apparatus of this Embodiment performing a load operation prediction method. It is a time diagram which shows an example of the time change of the unit electric energy consumed when an electric furnace operates for 1 cycle, and total electric energy. It is a block diagram which shows the structural example of the generator of this Embodiment, load, and an electric power supply control apparatus. It is a time diagram which shows an example of the time change of the unit electric energy of the load of this Embodiment, and the supply amount of an electric power supply control apparatus.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Generator 2 Load 3 Transmission / distribution electric wire 10 Load operation | movement prediction apparatus 11 Load operation | movement prediction part 20 Power supply control apparatus 21 Power supply control part 30 Power supply control apparatus 100 Control part 110 Reception part 120 Speaker 130 Display 140 Timer 150 ROM
160 RAM 160a Load information data 160b Operation start condition data 160c Total electric energy data

Claims (7)

A load operation prediction device that predicts a time at which the load ends the continuous operation after the load starts continuous operation,
A first acquisition unit that acquires a total amount of power consumed before the load starts the continuous operation until the load ends after the load starts the continuous operation;
A second acquisition unit that acquires a unit power amount consumed by the load per unit time when the load starts the continuous operation;
A third acquisition unit that acquires a start time at which the load starts the continuous operation;
A first calculator that predicts and calculates a time from when the load starts to the end based on the total power and the unit power;
A second calculation unit that predicts and calculates a time at which the load ends the continuous operation based on the start time and the time;
A load motion prediction apparatus comprising: The total power is
The amount of electric power consumed before the load starts the continuous operation and until the load ends after the load starts a predetermined one continuous operation.
The load operation prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein The total power is
Before the load starts the continuous operation, an average amount of power consumed between the load starting from the start of a plurality of continuous operations to the end thereof,
The load operation prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein   4. The time from when the load starts the continuous operation to when it ends is a value obtained by dividing the total power amount by the unit power amount. Load motion prediction device.   The load operation prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the load is an electric furnace. A load operation prediction method for a load operation prediction device that predicts a time at which the load ends the continuous operation after the load starts continuous operation,
Obtain the total amount of power consumed before the load starts the continuous operation and until the load starts and ends the continuous operation;
When the load starts the continuous operation, obtain the unit power amount that the load consumes per unit time,
Obtaining a start time at which the load starts the continuous operation;
Based on the total power amount and the unit power amount, predicting and calculating the time from when the load starts the continuous operation until it ends,
Based on the start time and the time, predict and calculate the time when the load ends the continuous operation,
The load operation | movement prediction method of the load operation | movement prediction apparatus characterized by the above-mentioned. A first acquisition unit that acquires a total amount of electric power consumed from when the load starts continuous operation until it ends before the load starts continuous operation;
A second acquisition unit configured to acquire a unit power amount consumed by the load per unit time when the load starts the continuous operation;
A third acquisition unit that acquires a start time at which the load starts the continuous operation;
A first calculator that predicts and calculates a time from when the load starts to the end based on the total power and the unit power;
A second calculation unit that predicts and calculates an end time at which the load ends the continuous operation based on the start time and the time;
Based on the end time, a control unit that controls the timing of stopping the supply of power to the load;
A power supply control device comprising: