JP2000092705A - Power system power flow monitoring device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power system power flow monitoring device which can monitor the power system of a load system quantitatively with high precision without using a human power and, further, can understand a future total system power flow status with high precision, quantitatively and objectively. SOLUTION: A load presumption unit 11 presumes a present end load value (instantaneous value) in accordance with various types of data stored in a system state value storage unit 31, a reference power flow data storage unit 34, an equipment data storage unit 35 and a past record data storage unit 36, and by utilizing the characteristics of a radial system. A load prediction unit 13 predicts an end load value in future (on that day, tommorow, etc.), in accordance with the presumption result of the load presumption unit 11 and data stored in the past record data storage unit 36. A power flow calculation unit 15 calculates a present and future power flow statuses in accordance with data stored in the system state value storage unit 31 and a presumed data storage unit 14, and the present end load value (instantaneous value) presumed by the load presumption unit 11. A system reliability judgement unit 16 can monitor and judge the reliability of a whole object system not only at present but also in future in accordance with the presumption result of the load presumption unit 11 and, further, with the prediction result of the load prediction unit 13.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

The present invention relates to a power flow monitoring device for a power system in a load system.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art FIG. 6 is a conceptual diagram showing an example of a power system. As shown in the figure, the power system is generally divided into a main system and a load system. The main system is a loop system, and a main system power supply control station or the like monitors the system.
The load system is a radial system, and the load system power supply control station monitors the system for each radial system. In the figure, as an example, an A load system power supply control station and a B load system power supply control station are shown. The main system and the load system are connected by a system transformer, and each radial system is supplied with power from a transmission line outlet of the system transformer.

[0003] The radial system is composed of nodes, branches, terminal load terminals and the like. The node is generally a facility at a location (node) where current is collected, and includes, for example, a bus, a branch point of a transmission line, a generator, and a phase adjustment facility.

[0004] A branch is equipment in a section in which current flows between nodes, and includes, for example, transmission lines, transformers (system transformers, distribution transformers, step-up transformers, and the like). The terminal load end means facilities such as distribution transformers and extra-high-end customers.

[0005] Hereinafter, the jurisdiction of each load system power supply control station is referred to as "jurisdiction". Here, in the main system, measurement points are always provided, so that all information necessary for system monitoring can be obtained. In addition, the place where the equipment for measuring power, current, voltage, etc. is installed is called a "measurement point",
A “measurement point” at which a measurement value is obtained in each short cycle (a few seconds) is called a “constant measurement point”. The data obtained at the “always measured point” is called a constantly measured value (instantaneous value; telemeter value).

On the other hand, in a load system, at present, measurement points are not always provided, and it is not possible to quantitatively monitor the entire system only with system information obtained from such a small number of measurement points. .

In such a situation, a power flow monitoring device for monitoring the state of the load system is described below, for example. FIG. 7 is a functional block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a conventional power system power flow monitoring device 30.

The load system power system 1 is a power system of the load system described above, and is a power system within a certain jurisdiction (within the jurisdiction of the power system power flow monitoring device 30). The system state quantity storage unit 31 collects / stores state quantity data of each part of the load system power system 1. For example, the load system power supply control station collects data indicating system status within the jurisdiction (telemeter values such as power, current, and voltage at measurement points, and data such as the open / closed state of switches such as circuit breakers) and collects the data. Store.

The system reliability determination unit 32 determines the reliability of the system based on the state quantity data of each part of the load system power system 1 stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31. Basically, the system reliability is determined by comparing a reference value of facility reliability of a transmission line, a transformer and the like of the system with a current state quantity. However,
This is always performed only for a portion having a measured value.
If an overload or the like has occurred, the operator is notified by an alarm or the like.

The HI device 33 is a Human Interface device that displays the state quantity data stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31 and the reliability determination result of the system (where there is a constantly measured value) by the system reliability determination unit 32. (Display etc.).

The reference power flow data storage unit 34 stores reference system state data such as during a summer peak. For example, in the load system power supply control station, data indicating the state of the power system of a reference section (for example, a power flow diagram at the peak of summer) created as a result of past performance data and human estimation is stored.

The equipment data storage unit 35 stores equipment data indicating the characteristics of the system equipment and the system connection relationship. For example, constants, names, connection relations between the equipments (e.g., railways, buses, transformers, generators, and phase adjustment equipments) constituting the power system,
Stores the belonging electric station data and the like.

The past record data storage section 36 stores a time average value (Wh value) of the past end load amount and the like. For example,
In the load system power supply control station, past power system state data (telemeter values such as power, current, and voltage at measurement points, open / close states of switch values of circuit breakers and the like, Wh values of terminal loads (integrated values for each time), Total demand, weather information, etc.) for a certain cycle.

The above-mentioned conventional power system power flow monitoring device 30
In the load power system, at a place where a measured value is always present in the load power system, the state quantity data can be collected and the reliability of the system can be determined and displayed.
In this case, usually, the number of measurement points is always small as described above, and it is not possible to quantitatively grasp the midstream power flow, terminal load, and the like. (With regard to the terminal load, instead of taking in the instantaneous value, the Wh value (integrated value for each time) of the distribution transformer load is measured at every hour (0: 00 to 23:00, 24 times a day). ,
24 data points a day were stored). For this reason, the operator or the like is stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31, the reference power flow data storage unit 34, the facility data storage unit 35, the past record data storage unit 36, and the like, for locations where there is no constant measured value. Based on the data, qualitatively, the load, the tide trend, etc. were determined. This may be based on the experience and intuition of the operator, or may be performed by off-line auxiliary calculation.

[0015]

As described above, in the conventional power system power flow monitoring method in the load system, since the number of measurement points is small at all times, it is difficult to quantitatively grasp the power flow in the middle of the line, the terminal load, and the like. Where there is no value, the operator qualitatively determines the load, the trend of the tidal flow, etc., rather than considering the experience and intuition from the limited information, and makes up for it. Alternatively, this was done using off-line auxiliary calculations. In any case, judgment / processing by humans (operator) is required.

On the other hand, in recent years, an increase in demand for a load system and a demand for a high operation rate of equipment complicate system operation conditions, and the above-described conventional method increases an operator's burden, and requires appropriate monitoring and monitoring.
It is becoming difficult to maintain judgment.

An object of the present invention is to realize accurate and quantitative system monitoring without any manual operation, particularly in a power system of a load system, and to accurately and quantitatively and objectively monitor future system power flow conditions. An object of the present invention is to provide a power system power flow monitoring device that can be grasped.

[0018]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION A power system power flow monitoring device according to the present invention comprises a system status data storage means for collecting / storing system status data indicating a power flow state of a power system of a load system, and a reference system power flow condition. Reference data storage means for storing reference data indicating, characteristics of the system equipment, equipment data storage means for storing equipment data indicating the system connection relationship,
A past record data storage unit that stores at least a past time average value of each terminal load amount, and information stored in the system state data storage unit, the reference data storage unit, the facility data storage unit, and the past record data storage unit. Load estimating means for estimating the instantaneous value of the terminal load amount based on the characteristics of the radial system based on the characteristic of the radial system.

According to the power system power flow monitoring device described above, it is possible to estimate a load (instantaneous value) at a terminal or the like at which a measured value cannot be obtained at all times. It becomes possible to grasp it.

The load estimating means includes, for example, reference data stored in the reference data storing means, a time average value of past terminal load amounts stored in the past record data storing means, Collected by data storage means /
The instantaneous value of the terminal load is estimated using the stored transmission line outlet or the constantly measured value of the system transformer.

Further, for example, the load estimating means calculates the change ratio of the terminal load amount of today's terminal load in the nearest several cycles and the terminal load amount of the same time period on a similar day, before and after the terminal load amount at the same time as the present time on the similar day. A value obtained by correcting the time average value of the past terminal load amount by multiplying the moving average value is used instead of the time average value.

As a result, the estimation accuracy is improved. Also,
The current measured value of the current transmission line outlet or system transformer is, for example, using the node stored in the equipment data storage means, branch information, while using and note the node information during the search, The terminal load end is obtained by searching for a constant measurement point of the supply source receiving the supply.

Thus, the load estimating means can cope with any change in system state, and the efficiency is further improved. The power flow monitoring device of the present invention further includes an estimated value storing means for storing an instantaneous value of the terminal load amount estimated by the load estimating means, and an in-jurisdiction total stored in the past record data storing means. A load predicting unit that predicts a future terminal load amount based on continuous data of demand and temperature within a certain period and data stored in the estimated value storing unit;

The load prediction means predicts the total demand within the jurisdiction from the relationship between the temperature in the nearest continuous period and the total demand within the jurisdiction obtained based on the data stored in the past record data storage means. Prediction means, a predicted value of the gross demand in the jurisdiction obtained by the gross demand prediction means, the actual gross demand on the selected similar day, and the estimated actual end load on the similar day. And prediction means for predicting the load amount.

As a result, it becomes possible to predict the terminal load in the future. The above-mentioned total demand forecasting means calculates the forecast temperature on the forecast target day based on a linear regression equation showing the relationship between the temperature on weekdays and the actual value of the total demand in the jurisdiction in advance in the nearest continuous period, which is obtained in advance. A method of obtaining a predicted value of the total demand within the jurisdiction by substituting into a regression equation, and a value obtained by multiplying a temperature difference between a similar day and a prediction target day by a slope of the linear regression equation to an actual total demand amount on the similar day. One of the methods of obtaining the predicted value of the total demand within the jurisdiction by the addition is selected and executed according to the characteristics of the predicted date.

For example, when the predicted future terminal load amount exceeds a preset allowable value continuously over a plurality of cycles, the load predicting means may compare the actual value of the current time with the current time. Then, a ratio with the predicted value obtained by the above is calculated, and the predicted future terminal load is corrected using the ratio.

Thus, even when the predicted value and the actual value are significantly different due to any cause, the predicted value can be corrected, and the prediction accuracy can be improved.

[0028]

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS FIG.
An embodiment will be described. FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of a power system power flow monitoring device 10 according to the present embodiment. In the figure, the same components as those of the conventional power system power flow monitoring device 30 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and detailed description thereof will be omitted.

In FIG. 1, a load estimating unit 11 is based on various data stored in a system state quantity storage unit 31, the reference power flow data storage unit 34, the facility data storage unit 35, and the past record data storage unit 36. The current end load (instantaneous value) is estimated using the characteristics of the radial system. The processing of the load estimating unit 11 will be described later in detail with reference to FIG.

The estimated value storing section 12 stores the load estimating section 11
The current terminal load amount (instantaneous value) estimated by the above is accumulated / stored for a certain period. The load estimating unit 13 includes the estimation result obtained by the load estimating unit 11 and the past record data storage unit 36.
Based on the data stored in the future (on the day,
Next day) Predict the end loading. "Future" means that day,
Although it is not limited to the next day, if the prediction accuracy is taken into consideration from the relationship between the accuracy of the predicted temperature and the like described later, it is appropriate that the next day or so is appropriate.

The predicted value storage unit 14 stores the predicted value of the terminal load predicted by the load predicting unit. The processing of the predicted value storage unit 14 will be described later in detail with reference to FIG. The tidal current calculation unit 15 includes the data stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31 and the predicted value storage unit 14 and the load estimation unit 11
The current and future power flow conditions are calculated based on the current terminal load amount (instantaneous value) estimated by (1). This is performed, for example, by a known DC method power flow calculation method.

The system reliability judgment unit 16 has basically the same function as the conventional system reliability judgment unit 32, but the system reliability judgment unit 32 always makes a judgment based only on the measured values. Although the entire target system could not be monitored because of the above, the determination including the estimation result by the load estimating unit 11 and the like can be made, so that the reliability of the entire target system can be determined. Further, by making a determination based on the load prediction result, it is possible to determine the reliability of the entire target system in the future.

First, the load estimating method in the load estimating unit 11 will be described in detail. Load estimator 11
Estimates the current current terminal load (instantaneous value) using the characteristics of the radial system as described above. This is because of the strong correlation between the tidal current at the entrance of the radial system (transmission line outlet or the secondary side of the system transformer) and each terminal load in the radial system, Each end load is estimated by calculating each end load from the inlet power flow (end load supply source).

That is, the total load of a certain radial system (subsystem) can be obtained by the following equation (1) when the loss of active power is ignored. ΣPn = ΣPi-ΣPo + ・ ・ ・ Pg (1) (； Pn; total current load of the sub-system ΣPi; total active power flowing into the sub-system ΣPo; total active power flowing out of the sub-system ΣPg; (The total active power value generated in the sub-system) Then, from the total load amount of the sub-system obtained by the above equation (1), each terminal load can be estimated by the following equation (2). .

Pni = ΣPn × Pwi ÷ ΣPwi (2) (Pni; load at the i-th terminal load end (terminal load;
(Instantaneous value) Pwi; Time average value (Wh value) of past load amount at i-th terminal load end ΣPwi; Sum of time average value (Wh value) of past load amount) These formulas (1) and ( The process of estimating the terminal load amount by the load estimating unit 11 using 2) will be described below.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a terminal load amount estimating process by the load estimating unit 11 of FIG. In the figure, first, based on the data stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31, the reference power flow data storage unit 34, and the facility data storage unit 35, the load at the terminal load end having no actual load value (Wh value) is determined. Estimation is performed (step S1). This is because, as described above, the end load end does not measure the instantaneous value of the load but measures / stores the Wh value of the load (the integrated value for each time). This is a process that takes into account the existence of a terminal load end for which no value has been measured.

That is, while referring to the facility data stored in the facility data storage section 35, the reference system state data (such as the reference power flow, the reference load data, ) And the current time power flow data (telemeter value) of the system transformer collected / stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31, there is no load actual value (Wh value) by the following equation (3). A load P such as a terminal load end is estimated.

P = (ΣP (telemeter value) of current system transformer) ÷ (ΣP of reference power flow data of the relevant system transformer) × P ′ (3) (where P ′; storage of reference power flow data) (Reference load of the load end stored in the unit 34) Next, the similar day Wh value is corrected (step S2).

In this case, the above-mentioned Pwi, that is, the time average value (Wh) of the past load amount of each terminal load end is obtained by the correction calculation of the following equation (4) using the similar day Wh value. Pwi = K × Pwi (4) (Pwi; moving average value of the load amount at the same time as the present on the similar day before and after K: correction coefficient: today's load amount (Wh value) in the nearest cycle and the same amount on the similar day (The ratio of the load amount (Wh value) in the time zone) Note that the “front-back moving average value” is the current (for example, 3: 0)
The active power (Wh) of (0) is P2, and the active power (Wh) before and after the hour (meaning at 0 hour before and after), that is, before the hour (2:00) and after the hour (4:00). And P
When P1 and P3 are set, the moving average value before and after = (P1 + P2 +
P3) / 3.

For the calculation of the correction coefficient K, the actual terminal load value (the time average value (Wh value) of each terminal load amount in the past) stored in the past record data storage unit 36 is used.

Next, based on the data stored in the reference power flow data storage unit 34, the equipment data storage unit 35, and the past record data storage unit 36, the total load (Wh value) of each radial system is calculated (Wh value). Step S3).

This is based on the time average value (Wh value) of each terminal load amount corrected in step S2, and for each radial system, the total power flow value (Wh value) of the outlet transmission line (or system transformer) ) And calculate the total value of this
(Sum of time average values (Wh) of past load amounts).

Then, based on the data stored in the system state quantity storage unit 31 and the facility data storage unit 35,
An automatic search for the supply source of the terminal load is performed (step S4).
This is the outlet of the transmission line from which each load end is supplied,
Alternatively, the constant measurement value of the system transformer (telemeter value; T
M) is searched, and this telemeter value is set as the total value ΣPn of the current load amount of the radial system. This step S
The process 4 will be described later in detail with reference to FIG.

Since ΣPn, Pwi and ΣPwi have been obtained by the processes in steps S1 to S4, the calculation of the above equation (2) can be executed to estimate and calculate the load (instantaneous value) at each end. (Step S5).

FIG. 3 is a flowchart for explaining in detail the process of performing the automatic search for the terminal load supply source, which is the process of step S4 in FIG. In the figure, first,
The node and branch information stored in the equipment data storage unit 35 and the system status collected / stored in the system status amount storage unit 31 are read (step S11).

Then, the following steps S13 to S18 are repeatedly executed by the number of load terminals (step S12). That is, first, it is determined whether or not the load end to be processed in the loop processing has already been searched (step S13). If the search has been completed (step S13, YES), the process proceeds to the next loop process.

If the search has not been completed (step S1)
(3, NO) Then, each branch flowing into the load end is checked, and a branch having a measurement point is extracted (step S).
14), it is determined whether or not a measuring device is actually equipped (mounted) (step S15).

If the measuring point is actually equipped with a measuring device (step S15, YES), the measuring point is regarded as the power supply source of the radial system (step S15).
16).

If no measuring device is installed (step S15, NO), the other end node of the branch having the largest power flow is taken out (step S17) and placed on the search path (from each terminal load end to the transmission line It is noted as node information on the outlet or on the path leading to the system transformer (step S18).

After that, the processes of steps S13 to S18 are repeated for the number of load terminals. At this time, the node information is used with reference to the noted node information. FIG.
5 is a flowchart for explaining a terminal load amount prediction process by the load prediction unit 13.

In the figure, first, the total demand within the jurisdiction is predicted (step S21). This is a linear regression equation that previously approximates the relationship between the temperature (highest temperature or lowest temperature) and the total demand within the jurisdiction in advance only on weekdays in the most recent consecutive period (for example, two weeks). (5),
(6) is obtained for each time period (for example, every hour). <Linear regression 1> jurisdiction in total demand _t = a _t × maximum temperature _{+ b t (t = 1~24)} ··· (5) < linear regression equation 2> jurisdiction in total demand _t = c _t × lo + d _t (t = 1 to 24) (6) Then, one of the following four prediction formulas (7) to (10) is selected / used according to the demand characteristics of the forecast day, and Calculate the total demand forecast for the belt. At this time, which prediction formula is to be selected is determined according to data set in advance by an operator or the like for each day of the week and time zone of the prediction date so that the accuracy is improved in accordance with the fluctuation characteristics of the demand within the jurisdiction. In addition, in these prediction formulas, the predicted temperature on the prediction target day and the actual results of the total demand and the temperature on the similar day are used, and when the similar day is to be determined, the previous day, the previous week, any designated day, etc. The determination is made in accordance with data set in advance by the operator or the like for each day of the week type or each predicted day. <Prediction equation 1> jurisdiction within the expected total demand _t = a _t × (expected maximum temperature - similar to date the highest temperature) + similar Date proven jurisdiction in the total demand _{t (t = 1~24) ··· (} 7) < prediction equation 2) Predicted total demand within jurisdiction _t = _ct x (expected minimum temperature-similar day minimum temperature) + similar day actual total demand within jurisdiction _t (t = 1 to 24) ... (8) <Forecast formula 3> intra-predicted total demand _t = a _t × expected maximum temperature _{+ b t (t = 1~24)} ··· (9) < prediction equation 4> jurisdiction prediction total demand _t = c _t × lowest expected temperature + d _{t (t} = 1 to 24) (10) In the above method, the linear regression equation is obtained in advance based on data only on weekdays, but the prediction target day is not limited to a weekday. On Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays, the demands are different from those on weekdays, but tend to be almost parallel to the linear regression formula created based on the data on weekdays (the slope is almost the same). Thus, for Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays, if an expression that makes a prediction using the similar day result and the slope of the regression equation is used, as in <Estimation Equation 1> and <Estimation Equation 2> above, the total forecast within the jurisdiction can be obtained. Demand _t can be determined.

After predicting the total demand within the jurisdiction by the processing of step S21, subsequently, each terminal load (instantaneous value) is predicted (step S22). This is based on the estimated total demand in the jurisdiction obtained by the processing in step S21 and the terminal load (instantaneous value) estimated in the past by the load estimator 11 and stored in the estimated value storage 12 (hereinafter, referred to as
Using the estimated actual end load, the following equation (1)
The terminal load (instantaneous value) is predicted and calculated by 1). At this time, the estimated actual terminal load amount is based on a similar day, but when the similar day is set (the previous day, the previous week, an arbitrary day, etc.), an operator or the like sets in advance a day of the week type or a predicted day individually. Judgment is made according to the data.

[0053] prediction end load _tn = (jurisdiction within the expected total demand _t / jurisdiction in similar Date proven total demand _t) × similar Date estimated proven end load _{tn ··· (11) (t =} 1~24, tn = (Time at intervals of 60 / n minutes from 00:00 to 23:59) Here, t = 1 is used for the n points of tn = 00: 00 to 00:59. N points of tn = 01: 00 to 01:59 Uses t = 2.... Tn = 23: 00 to 23:59 uses t = 24. Finally, the terminal load (instantaneous value) is corrected (step S23). ).

This is because the error between the predicted value for the past N cycles from the current predicted time and the actual value is compared with a preset allowable value (m% of the actual value). The following correction is made according to the result. (A) When the allowable value is continuously exceeded (in the same direction) The end predicted load amount at each time in the future (for today) is corrected according to the ratio between the actual value and the predicted value at the current predicted time. That is, the correction value of the predicted end load amount is calculated by the following equation (12).
Find tn.

Correction value tn = (Actual value of current time / Predicted value of current time) × Predicted value tn (12) (b) In cases other than the above (a) No correction Further rapid change, gradual In order to flexibly respond to a change or the like, a plurality of combinations of the monitoring period and the allowable value may be defined, and correction may be performed according to the combination. By using this method, for example, it is possible to set so that the correction is performed in a relatively short cycle when the change is abrupt, and the correction is performed in a relatively long cycle when the change is gradual.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of an information processing device for realizing the power system power flow monitoring device of the present invention. In FIG. 1, an information processing device 20 includes a CPU
21, a storage unit 22 (including a portable storage medium 22a), a memory 23, an input / output interface unit 24, and the like.

The CPU 21 is a central processing unit that controls the entire information processing apparatus 20. The storage unit 22 is a storage device such as an HDD in which at least a program for realizing the function of the power system power flow monitoring device of the present invention described above is stored. Alternatively, the storage unit 22 is a portable storage medium 22a.
And a combination of a drive and its drive (for example, a floppy disk (FD) and a floppy disk drive (FD)
D)). The above F is stored in the portable storage medium 22a.
In addition to D, there is a CD-ROM, memory card, DVD, MO, and the like.

The memory 23 temporarily stores a program stored in the storage unit 22 and stores the program in the CPU.
21 to be executed by the RAM 21 or the like. The memory 23
There is also a storage area for temporarily storing various data (intermediate result data and the like) generated while the CPU 21 is executing the program.

The input / output interface section 24 is an input / output interface connected to an external network or the like so that the above-mentioned system state quantity storage section 31 collects each state quantity of the power system 1.

Further, although not particularly shown, a display, a keyboard and the like may be provided. The present invention is not limited to the power system power flow monitoring device itself, and includes a computer-readable recording medium storing a program for realizing the functions of the above-described embodiments of the present invention when used by a computer. (Storage medium).

[0061]

As described above in detail, according to the power system power flow monitoring apparatus of the present invention, in monitoring the power system of the load system, it is possible to estimate the terminal load amount or the like which cannot be always measured. By doing so, quantitative automatic monitoring of all line power flows in the load system power system becomes possible. Further, it is possible to predict the state of the system in the future, which contributes to improving the accuracy and efficiency of system monitoring.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of a power system power flow monitoring device according to an embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart for explaining a method of estimating a terminal load amount.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart for describing in detail a process of automatically searching for a terminal load supply source.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart for explaining a terminal load amount prediction process.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of an information processing device that realizes a power system power flow monitoring device.

FIG. 6 is a conceptual diagram illustrating an example of a power system.

FIG. 7 is a functional block diagram showing an example of a configuration of a conventional power system power flow monitoring device.

[Explanation of symbols]

 REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 10 power system power flow monitoring device 11 load estimator 12 estimated value storage unit 13 load prediction unit 14 predicted value storage unit 15 power flow calculation unit 16 system reliability determination unit 31 system state quantity storage unit 34 reference power flow data storage unit 35 equipment data storage Unit 36 past record data storage unit 20 information processing device 21 CPU 22 storage unit 22a portable storage medium 23 memory 24 input / output interface unit

 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on the front page (72) Inventor Junjun Ikeda 1 Higashi-Shinmachi, Higashi-ku, Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture Inside Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. (72) Inventor Makoto Furui 1-Higashi-Shinmachi, Higashi-ku, Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture Chubu Electric Power Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor: Tokunori Zhang 1-1-1, Tanabe-Nitta, Kawasaki-ku, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Katsuhisa Kameya 1-1-1, Tanabe-Nitta, Kawasaki-ku, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa Fuji Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Michio Takenaka, Inventor 1-1, Tanabe Nitta, Kawasaki-ku, Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Tomohiro Koike 1-1-1, Tanabe-Nitta, Kawasaki-ku, Kawasaki, Kanagawa Fuji Inside Electric Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Shigeru Watanabe 1-1-1, Tanabe-Nitta, Kawasaki-ku, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa Prefecture F-term within Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. 5G066 AA01 AA02 AA03 AE09

Claims (10)

[Claims] 1. A system status data storage means for collecting / storing system status data indicating a power flow state of a power system of a load system, a reference data storage means for storing reference data indicating a reference system power flow state, Equipment data storage means for storing equipment data indicating the characteristics of the equipment and system connection relations; past record data storage means for storing at least the past time average value of each terminal load amount; system state data storage means; reference data Based on information stored in storage means, equipment data storage means, and past record data storage means, utilizing the characteristics of the radial system,
And a load estimating means for estimating an instantaneous value of a terminal load amount. 2. The system according to claim 1, wherein the load estimating means includes: a reference data stored in the reference data storing means; a time average value of a past terminal load amount stored in the past record data storing means; 2. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 1, wherein the instantaneous value of the terminal load amount is estimated using a transmission line outlet or a constantly measured value of a system transformer collected / stored by a data storage unit. . 3. The load estimating means calculates a moving average of the terminal load amount of the nearest several cycles and the terminal load amount of the same time period on a similar day by the moving average of the terminal load amount at the same time as the present day on the similar day. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 2, wherein a value obtained by correcting a time average value of the past terminal load amount by multiplying the value by the value is used instead of the time average value. 4. The current constant value of the transmission line outlet or the system transformer is used by making note of node information being searched using node and branch information stored in the equipment data storage means. 3. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 2, wherein the terminal load end is determined by searching for a constant measurement point of the supply source receiving the supply. 5. An estimated value storing means for storing an instantaneous value of a terminal load amount estimated by the load estimating means; and a continuation of the total demand within the jurisdiction and the temperature stored in the past record data storing means for a certain period of time. 2. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 1, further comprising: load prediction means for predicting a future terminal load amount based on the data and the data stored in the estimated value storage means. 6. The load predicting means predicts the gross demand within the jurisdiction from the relationship between the temperature in the most recent continuous period and the gross demand within the jurisdiction obtained based on the data stored in the past record data storage means. Future demand based on the total demand forecasting means, the predicted value of the gross demand in the jurisdiction obtained by the total demand forecasting means, the actual total demand on the selected similar day, and the estimated actual end load on the similar day. 6. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 5, further comprising prediction means for predicting each terminal load amount. 7. The total demand forecasting means, based on a linear regression equation showing the relationship between the temperature on weekdays and the actual value of gross demand within the jurisdiction in advance in the nearest continuous period, which is calculated in advance, predicts the expected temperature on the forecast target day. Is substituted into the linear regression equation to obtain a predicted value of the gross demand within the jurisdiction. 7. The power system power flow monitoring according to claim 6, wherein one of the methods of obtaining the predicted value of the total demand within the jurisdiction by adding the predicted value to the demand amount is selected and executed according to the characteristics of the predicted date. apparatus. 8. The load predicting means, when the predicted future terminal load amount exceeds a preset allowable value continuously over a plurality of cycles, and compares the actual value of the current time with the current time. 7. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 6, wherein a ratio to the predicted value obtained by the calculation is obtained, and the predicted future terminal load is corrected using the ratio. 9. The method according to claim 6, further comprising storing an actual value of an arbitrarily designated day, and predicting each future end load by regarding the arbitrarily designated day as a similar day. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 5 or 6, wherein 10. A predicted value storage unit for storing a future terminal load amount predicted by the load prediction unit, system state data stored in the system state data storage unit, and stored in the predicted value storage unit. Power flow calculating means for calculating a current or future power flow state based on the future terminal load amount and the instantaneous value of the terminal load amount estimated by the load estimating means, and a current flow calculated by the power flow calculating means. 6. The power system power flow monitoring device according to claim 5, further comprising: a reliability determination monitoring unit that determines reliability of the power system based on a future power flow condition.