CN113240245A - Offshore wind power operation index prediction system and prediction method - Google Patents

Offshore wind power operation index prediction system and prediction method Download PDF

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CN113240245A
CN113240245A CN202110408652.9A CN202110408652A CN113240245A CN 113240245 A CN113240245 A CN 113240245A CN 202110408652 A CN202110408652 A CN 202110408652A CN 113240245 A CN113240245 A CN 113240245A
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offshore wind
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董礼
王雪
成和祥
王仁磊
张雪松
王晗晓昕
肖擎曜
王晓峰
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Beijing Jiutian Jiutian Meteorological Technology Co ltd
Cgn Beijing New Energy Technology Co ltd
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Cgn Beijing New Energy Technology Co ltd
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Abstract

An offshore wind power operation index prediction system and a prediction method relate to the technical field of offshore prediction and solve the problem of inaccurate prediction in the prior art, and the device comprises: the system comprises a meteorological ocean forecast data module, an offshore wind power operation scene division module for classifying offshore wind power operation scenes according to the sea-going construction content, a ship parameter extraction module, a ship type division module for dividing ship types according to ship parameter information and the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scenes on ships, a threshold setting module for setting construction safety thresholds for meteorological ocean element forecast data according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scenes and ship types on meteorological ocean conditions, and an operation safety index under the situations of the offshore wind power operation scenes and the ship types according to the meteorological ocean element forecast data and the construction safety thresholds. The method and the system provide accurate operation safety index prediction for different offshore wind power operation scenes and different ship types, and improve the working efficiency of offshore construction.

Description

Offshore wind power operation index prediction system and prediction method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of offshore wind power operation index prediction, in particular to an offshore wind power operation index prediction system and a prediction method.
Background
The offshore wind power operation index is used for judging whether the ship is favorable for offshore wind power operation construction in the future date or not, and plays an important role in the offshore engineering construction process.
In recent years, offshore wind power in China enters a large development stage, and compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power construction environment is severe and is influenced by complicated and variable oceanographic conditions, offshore wind power engineering has high risk, high failure rate, poor accessibility, high cost and short operation window period, and if the offshore wind power engineering cannot be scientifically dealt with, the offshore wind power engineering has serious influence on enterprise safety production and benefits, especially on oceanographic disasters such as typhoon, sea strong wave, strong wind and the like, and has important influence on offshore construction operation and production operation and maintenance. Therefore, the accurate operation index prediction service is beneficial to reasonably making an offshore construction operation plan, shortening the construction period, reducing the disaster loss of offshore operation, and effectively guaranteeing the personnel safety, equipment safety and offshore engineering production safety.
At present, the offshore wind power operation index prediction method is to roughly judge by using weather and ocean forecast information of a sea area for offshore operation construction, the considered influence factor is simpler, the condition that a fan cannot be logged in to complete an operation construction plan under the influence of weather during actual offshore operation occurs, and different construction links have different requirements on weather and ocean forecast conditions. Therefore, an accurate prediction method for the operation index of different offshore construction links is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an offshore wind power operation index prediction system and a prediction method, aiming at solving the problem that the prediction of the conventional offshore wind power operation index prediction system and prediction method is inaccurate.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problem is as follows:
an offshore wind power operation index prediction system comprising:
the weather oceanic forecast data module is used for extracting and processing weather oceanic element forecast data of a construction area in a future appointed date, and the space-time resolution of the processed weather oceanic element forecast data meets the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area;
the offshore wind power operation scene division module is used for classifying the offshore wind power operation scenes according to the offshore construction content;
the ship parameter extraction module is used for acquiring ship parameter information;
the ship type dividing module is used for dividing the ship type according to the ship parameter information and the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the ship;
the threshold setting module is used for setting the construction safety threshold of the processed meteorological marine element forecast data according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological marine conditions and the requirements of the ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological marine conditions;
and the operation safety index calculation module is used for calculating the operation safety index under the situations of an offshore wind power operation scene and the ship type corresponding to the offshore wind power operation scene according to the construction safety threshold and the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data.
A calculation method of an operation safety index calculation module in an offshore wind power operation index prediction system comprises the following steps:
step one, judging whether the switch elements reach an operable threshold, if the threshold judgment results of all the switch elements reach the operable threshold, performing step two, otherwise, judging that the switch elements are in operation danger;
step two, if any one of the numerical elements reaches an operation danger threshold, judging that the operation is dangerous, otherwise, performing step three;
step three, if all the 0 numerical elements in the numerical elements do not reach the operation safety threshold, the operation is judged to be safe; if at least k numerical elements in the numerical elements do not reach the operation safety threshold, judging that the operation is dangerous; if the number of the numerical elements which is larger than or equal to j and smaller than k does not reach the operation safety threshold value, the operation is judged to be risky; k is more than j and is more than or equal to 1, k is less than the total number of the numerical elements, and k and j are integers.
A prediction method of an offshore wind power operation index prediction system comprises the following steps:
s1, extracting meteorological ocean element forecast data of the construction area in the future appointed date by the meteorological ocean forecast data module and processing the meteorological ocean element forecast data to enable the space-time resolution of the meteorological ocean element forecast data to meet the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area; the offshore wind power operation scene division module classifies offshore wind power operation scenes according to the offshore construction content; the ship parameter extraction module acquires ship parameter information; the ship type division module divides the ship type according to the ship parameter information and the requirement of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the ship;
s2, setting a construction safety threshold value for meteorological ocean element forecast data by a threshold value setting module according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on meteorological ocean conditions and the requirements of the ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological ocean conditions;
and S3, calculating the operation safety index under the situations of the offshore wind power operation scene and the ship type corresponding to the offshore wind power operation scene according to the meteorological ocean element forecast data and the construction safety threshold value by the operation safety index calculation module.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the method can provide accurate operation safety index prediction of a construction area within a specified date in the future for different offshore wind power operation scenes and different ship types, guide the safe operation of a user, make a decision according to a prediction result, select proper offshore operation time, ensure the safety of construction and freight loading and unloading of various accessories, reduce the number of times of going out of sea which cannot be operated, reduce the operation cost of going out of sea, avoid meteorological ocean risks, improve the operation efficiency of going out of sea construction, and contribute to reasonably making an offshore construction operation plan.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a structural diagram of an offshore wind power operation index prediction system according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a calculation flow chart of an operation safety index calculation module of the offshore wind power operation index prediction system of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of a prediction method of the offshore wind power operation index prediction system according to the present invention.
Fig. 4 is an application case diagram of the offshore wind power operation index prediction system of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the drawings and examples, but the scope of the present invention is not limited by the specific examples disclosed below.
An offshore wind power operation index prediction system, as shown in fig. 1, comprises: the system comprises a meteorological ocean forecast data module, an offshore wind power operation scene division module, a ship parameter data extraction module, a ship type division module, a threshold setting module and an operation safety index calculation module.
And the meteorological marine forecast data module is used for extracting and processing meteorological marine element forecast data of the construction area in a future appointed date, and the spatial-temporal resolution of the processed meteorological marine element forecast data meets the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area.
The meteorological marine forecast data module comprises a meteorological marine forecast data extraction module and a meteorological marine forecast data processing module. And the meteorological marine forecast data extraction module is used for extracting meteorological marine element forecast data of the construction area in the specified date in the future. The meteorological ocean forecast data processing module is used for adjusting the space-time resolution of the meteorological ocean element forecast data to the space-time resolution meeting the operation safety index forecasting/calculating requirement of the construction area, namely the space-time resolution meets the operation safety index calculating module, and the adjusted space-time resolution is used for calculating the operation safety index calculating module.
The meteorological marine element forecast data extraction module extracts meteorological marine element forecast data of a construction area in a specified date in the future, wherein meteorological marine element factors of the meteorological marine element forecast data comprise element forecast data such as wind speed, rainfall, visibility, thunder, effective wave height of sea waves, effective wave height of surge waves, wave period and the like. The specified future date may be any period of time within 7 days of the future or any time within 7 days of the future.
The weather oceanic forecast data processing module processes the weather oceanic element forecast data extracted by the weather oceanic forecast data extraction module according to the pre-achieved time resolution and spatial resolution, processes the weather oceanic element forecast data into an input data format suitable for the operation safety index calculation module, generally adopts downscaling processing, changes the spatial resolution of the weather oceanic element forecast data according to the requirements of a construction area on the weather oceanic elements, changes the time resolution of the weather oceanic element forecast data according to the pre-achieved prediction time, and refers to the weather oceanic element forecast data after changing the space-time resolution as the processed weather oceanic element forecast data. The meteorological marine element forecast data is processed according to the resolution (spatial resolution) of the construction area to be predicted and the time interval (i.e., temporal resolution) to be predicted in the present embodiment, and the meteorological marine element forecast data is obtained hour by hour at any operation site in the construction area on a specified date in the future.
The offshore wind power operation scene division module is used for dividing the offshore wind power operation scene according to the sea-going construction content to obtain m types of sea construction operation scenes, wherein m is a positive integer.
According to the actual offshore construction content, the offshore construction operation scenes are divided into m types, for example, the offshore construction operation comprises blade hoisting construction, tower hoisting construction, submarine cable laying construction, foundation engineering construction (comprising offshore foundation building work and basic equipment loading and unloading work), boarding operation (comprising that a ship stops at one side of an ocean platform and a constructor rides on the ocean platform through a boarding ladder), and the offshore construction operation scenes (namely the offshore wind power operation scenes) are divided into five types of blade hoisting construction, tower hoisting construction, submarine cable laying construction, foundation engineering construction and boarding operation.
And the ship parameter extraction module is used for acquiring ship parameter information.
The method comprises the steps of obtaining parameter information of ships going out of the sea, namely obtaining parameter information of each ship in the sea construction, wherein the ship parameter information comprises ship type information (classified according to purposes, sailing states, the number of ship bodies, propelling power, propellers, whether supporting legs exist or not), ship wind resistance grade information, ship wave resistance grade information, ship draught depth information, ship length information, ship width information, ship tonnage information and other parameter information. The ship type information in this embodiment includes/is: vessel leg information.
And the ship type dividing module is used for dividing the ship type according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the ship and according to the ship parameter information. Particularly, the ship types under each type of offshore wind power operation scene are divided. Each type of offshore wind power operation scene has n types of ships corresponding to the type of offshore wind power operation scene, and n is an integer larger than 0. The requirements of different offshore wind power operation scenes on ship parameters are combined, and then the ships are divided into different types according to the ship parameter information. For example, when blade hoisting construction and tower drum hoisting construction are carried out, the method is related to whether the ship has supporting legs or not, and the ship can be divided into a supporting-leg ship and a non-supporting-leg ship; when basic engineering construction and boarding operation are carried out, the parameters are related to parameters such as wind resistance level, wave resistance level and draught depth of the ship, and the ship can be divided into four types.
And the threshold setting module is used for setting the construction safety threshold of the processed meteorological marine element forecast data according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological marine conditions and the requirements of the ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological marine conditions. Specifically, a construction safety degree threshold value is set for each element forecast data of the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data, and the construction safety degree threshold value is set for each element forecast data under the situation of each type of offshore wind power operation scene and each type of ship type corresponding to the offshore wind power operation scene, wherein the construction safety degree comprises operation safety and operation danger, and the construction safety degree can also comprise operation danger, so that the construction safety degree corresponds to the construction safety degree, and the construction safety threshold value comprises an operation safety threshold value, an operation danger threshold value and an operation danger threshold value.
Considering that different types of ships are utilized to carry out different types of offshore wind power operation on the difference of meteorological marine element thresholds, combining the requirements of offshore construction operation on meteorological marine conditions, the meteorological marine element factors of the processed meteorological marine element forecast data which affect the ship offshore operation are divided into two types: a numerical element and a switch element. The numerical element comprises wind speed, precipitation, effective wave height of sea waves, effective wave height of surge, wave period of sea waves and the like, the threshold values of the numerical elements are related to the ship type, the threshold values of all meteorological ocean elements under different operation scenes, when different ships are in safe operation at sea and in danger of operation at sea (and when the ships are in danger at sea) need to be set, and the threshold values of the numerical elements comprise operation safety threshold values and operation danger threshold values and can also comprise operation danger threshold values. The switch elements comprise elements such as visibility and thunder, and due to the fact that influence of thunder activity and low visibility on offshore operation is serious, the threshold value of the switch element only comprises an operational threshold value (namely an operational safety threshold value), the operational safety threshold value belongs to the same value as the operational danger threshold value, and the operational danger threshold value is not available. For example, if the lightning activity is predicted in the construction area, it is not recommended to carry out offshore operation in the construction area, so that the elements only need to set 1 threshold condition, for example, the lightning threshold condition is the existence of the lightning activity.
And the operation safety index calculation module is used for calculating the operation safety index under the situation that a certain ship type is adopted in the offshore wind power operation scene and the offshore wind power operation scene, namely calculating the operation safety index for performing different offshore wind power operations by utilizing different types of ships, and calculating the operation safety index according to the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data and the construction safety threshold. The operation safety index calculation module can calculate operation safety indexes of a single type of offshore wind power operation scene under a single moment and a single operation point position and a single type of ship type scene of the offshore wind power operation scene to obtain operation safety indexes of different offshore wind power operations carried out by different types of ships in a construction area in a specified date in the future.
And calculating (namely judging) the operation safety index of each type of offshore wind power operation scene at a certain operation point position in the construction area/construction area and each ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene according to the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data and the construction safety threshold set by the threshold setting module. The operation safety index is used as a safety condition, and comprises three conditions of safety, risk and danger. The operation safety index of all kinds of offshore wind power operation scenes in all construction areas under each ship kind can be calculated through the operation safety index calculation module. Taking the scenario of blade hoisting construction and a non-landing-leg ship as an example, threshold matching judgment is carried out on forecast data of each meteorological ocean element at the appointed operation point position at the future appointed time, and switching element condition judgment and numerical value element threshold judgment are carried out in sequence to obtain the operation safety index of the non-landing-leg ship at the appointed time and the operation point position in the future during the blade hoisting construction.
The operation safety index calculation flow under the situation of a certain type of marine wind power operation scene at a certain operation point position in a certain construction area and a certain type of ship type of the marine wind power operation scene is shown in fig. 2, and the calculation flow is as follows:
step one, performing threshold judgment on the switch elements, judging whether the switch elements reach an operable threshold, if the threshold judgment result of any one switch element is 'YES' operation danger, not needing to perform step two, and if the calculation result is operation danger, finishing the judgment; and if the threshold judgment results of all the switch elements reach the operable threshold, performing the step two. The method specifically comprises the following steps: performing switching element judgment based on the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data, and if lightning activity exists at a certain moment of the designated operation point or the designated operation point is VIS < VIS1, indicating that the designated operation point cannot operate at the moment, wherein VIS is a visibility predicted value of the corresponding operation point at the corresponding moment, and VIS1 is a set visibility judgment threshold; if no lightning activity exists at a certain moment of the designated point and VIS is more than or equal to VIS1, the next numerical element judgment is needed.
The threshold value of the numerical value element is determined after the switch element is determined as "NO". Performing a second step, namely, numerical element judgment on the lower left side of the lower graph in fig. 2, performing operation risk threshold judgment on the predicted wind speed WS, precipitation TP, sea wave effective wave height SWH, SWELL effective wave height SWELL and sea wave period MWP, wherein WS1, TP1, SWH1, SWELL1 and MWP1 are operation risk thresholds for the wind speed, precipitation, sea wave effective wave height, SWELL effective wave height and sea wave period element, and if any one of the specified point certain time WS > WS1, TP > TP1, SWH > SWH1, SWELL > SWELL1 or MWP > MWP1 is true (if the value is greater than the true value, the operation risk is reached), the operation point construction operation risk at the time is determined; and if all the numerical value elements in the numerical value elements do not reach the operation danger threshold value, performing the step three.
Step three, if all the numerical value elements in the numerical value elements reach the operation safety threshold, judging that the operation is safe; if at least k numerical elements in the numerical elements do not reach the operation safety threshold, judging that the operation is dangerous; if the number of the numerical elements is less than k and at least j numerical elements do not reach the operation safety threshold value, the operation is judged to be risky; k is more than j and is more than or equal to 1, k is less than the total number of the numerical elements, and k and j are integers. If the numerical element judgment at the lower right side of fig. 2 is carried out, namely, the operation safety threshold judgment is carried out on the wind speed WS, the precipitation TP, the sea wave effective wave height SWH, the SWELL effective wave height SWELL and the sea wave period MWP, the WS2, the TP2, the SWH2, the SWELL2 and the MWP2 are respectively the operation safety thresholds aiming at the wind speed, the precipitation, the sea wave effective wave height, the SWELL effective wave height and the sea wave period element, if 3 or more than 3 of five judgment conditions of the specified operation point at a certain moment WS > WS2, TP > TP2, SWH > SWH2, SWELL > SWELL2 and MWP > MWP2 are met at the same time, the construction operation at the moment of the operation point is dangerous; if 1 or 2 of the five judgment conditions simultaneously meet the conditions, the construction operation at the point in time is risky; if the five judgment conditions are all satisfied, the construction operation of the point location at the moment is safe, and the condition that the condition is greater than the operation safety threshold is that the operation safety threshold is not reached.
In the above calculation flow, the operation risk threshold is not directly set in the numerical element threshold in the second step and the third step, but the construction safety degree of the operation risk is judged according to the operation safety threshold and the operation risk threshold.
The offshore wind power operation index prediction system further comprises a sea operation time determination module, wherein the sea operation time determination module is used for arranging the operation safety indexes obtained by the operation safety index calculation module to obtain operation window period time under the operation safety indexes, namely the sea operation window period time under the situation of a certain ship type in a certain offshore wind power operation scene in a certain construction area at a certain time period. In the following embodiment, the offshore operation time determining module is used for sorting the operation safety index obtained by the operation safety index calculating module and determining the operation safety window period time, so that the operation safety window period time in different construction areas and different time periods can be obtained when different types of ships are used for performing different offshore wind power operations.
The prediction method based on the offshore wind power operation index prediction system as shown in fig. 3 comprises the following steps:
s1, extracting meteorological ocean element forecast data of the construction area in the future appointed date by the meteorological ocean forecast data module and processing the meteorological ocean element forecast data to enable the space-time resolution of the meteorological ocean element forecast data to meet the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area; the offshore wind power operation scene division module classifies offshore wind power operation scenes according to the offshore construction content; the ship parameter extraction module acquires ship parameter information; the ship type dividing module divides the ship type according to the ship parameter information and the requirement of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the ship;
s2, setting a construction safety threshold value for meteorological ocean element forecast data by a threshold value setting module according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on meteorological ocean conditions and the requirements of the ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological ocean conditions;
s3, calculating the operation safety index under the situations of an offshore wind power operation scene and a ship type corresponding to the offshore wind power operation scene according to the meteorological element forecast data in S1 and the construction safety threshold in S2 by an operation safety index calculation module;
and S4, the going-to-sea operation time determining module arranges the operation safety indexes obtained in the S3 to obtain operation window time.
The offshore wind power operation index prediction system and the prediction method are applied to actual offshore wind power service, operation safety index prediction can be provided for any offshore wind power operation scene and any ship type, operation index prediction obtained by a sea-going operation time determination module is shown in figure 4, white in the operation safety index in figure 4 represents operation safety time, gray represents operation risk time, black represents operation risk time, A represents an operation safety index of boarding operation, B represents an operation safety index of tower barrel hoisting construction, C represents an operation safety index of blade hoisting construction, D represents an operation safety index of foundation engineering construction, and E represents an operation safety index of submarine cable laying construction.
The offshore wind power operation index prediction system and the prediction method are used for predicting different offshore construction links, can accurately predict the operation safety index, provide accurate operation index prediction of a construction area within a specified date in the future for different offshore wind power operation scenes and different ship types, give clear operation safety, operation risk and operation danger time, and make a decision by a user with reference to operation window period time. The offshore wind power operation window period of the offshore wind power operation window period in the specified date and the offshore area can be provided for any ship, a precious time window period is provided for offshore engineering ship operation construction, offshore wind power construction operation and maintenance efficiency is improved, guarantee is provided for offshore engineering ship operation construction, the offshore wind power operation and maintenance construction plan can be reasonably planned, and the offshore wind power operation and maintenance window period is suitable for the field of offshore engineering such as offshore wind power operation and offshore oil operation.

Claims (10)

1. An offshore wind power operation index prediction system, comprising:
the weather oceanic forecast data module is used for extracting and processing weather oceanic element forecast data of a construction area in a future appointed date, and the space-time resolution of the processed weather oceanic element forecast data meets the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area;
the offshore wind power operation scene division module is used for classifying the offshore wind power operation scenes according to the offshore construction content;
the ship parameter extraction module is used for acquiring ship parameter information;
the ship type dividing module is used for dividing the ship type according to the ship parameter information and the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the ship;
the threshold setting module is used for setting the construction safety threshold of the processed meteorological marine element forecast data according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological marine conditions and the requirements of the ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological marine conditions;
and the operation safety index calculation module is used for calculating the operation safety index under the situations of an offshore wind power operation scene and the ship type corresponding to the offshore wind power operation scene according to the construction safety threshold and the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data.
2. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 1, wherein the weather marine forecast data module comprises a weather marine forecast data extraction module and a weather marine forecast data processing module, the weather marine forecast data extraction module being configured to extract weather marine element forecast data for a construction area within a specified date in the future; the meteorological marine forecast data processing module is used for adjusting the space-time resolution of the meteorological marine element forecast data to meet the space-time resolution of the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area to obtain the processed meteorological marine element forecast data.
3. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 1, further comprising a sea operation time determination module, wherein the sea operation time determination module is configured to sort the operation safety index to obtain an operation window period time.
4. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 1, wherein the meteorological ocean element forecast data comprises wind speed element forecast data, precipitation element forecast data, visibility element forecast data, lightning element forecast data, sea wave effective wave height element forecast data, surge effective wave height element forecast data and sea wave period element forecast data.
5. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 1, wherein the vessel parameter information comprises vessel type information, vessel wind resistance level information, vessel wave resistance level information, vessel draft information, vessel length information, vessel width information, and vessel tonnage information.
6. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 1, wherein the construction safety threshold comprises an operation safety threshold, an operation risk threshold and an operation risk threshold.
7. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 1, wherein for each of the meteorological ocean element forecast data, the threshold setting module is capable of performing construction safety degree threshold setting according to each type of offshore wind power operation scenario and each type of vessel of the offshore wind power operation scenario.
8. The offshore wind power generation operation index prediction system of claim 1, wherein the threshold setting module is capable of dividing the meteorological ocean element factors of the processed meteorological ocean element forecast data into two categories, namely a numerical element and a switch element, the construction safety threshold of the numerical element comprises an operation safety threshold and an operation danger threshold, and the construction safety threshold of the switch element is an operable threshold.
9. The offshore wind power operation index prediction system of claim 8, wherein the calculation method of the operation safety index calculation module comprises:
step one, judging whether the switch elements reach an operable threshold, if the threshold judgment results of all the switch elements reach the operable threshold, performing step two, otherwise, judging that the switch elements are in operation danger;
step two, if any one of the numerical elements reaches an operation danger threshold, judging that the operation is dangerous, otherwise, performing step three;
step three, if all the 0 numerical elements in the numerical elements do not reach the operation safety threshold, the operation is judged to be safe; if at least k numerical elements in the numerical elements do not reach the operation safety threshold, judging that the operation is dangerous; if the number of the numerical elements which is larger than or equal to j and smaller than k does not reach the operation safety threshold value, the operation is judged to be risky; k is more than j and is more than or equal to 1, k is less than the total number of the numerical elements, and k and j are integers.
10. The method for predicting an offshore wind power operation index prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 8, comprising the steps of:
s1, extracting meteorological ocean element forecast data of the construction area in the future appointed date by the meteorological ocean forecast data module and processing the meteorological ocean element forecast data to enable the space-time resolution of the meteorological ocean element forecast data to meet the operation safety index prediction requirement of the construction area; the offshore wind power operation scene division module classifies offshore wind power operation scenes according to the offshore construction content; the ship parameter extraction module acquires ship parameter information; the ship type division module divides the ship type according to the ship parameter information and the requirement of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the ship;
s2, setting a construction safety threshold value for meteorological ocean element forecast data by a threshold value setting module according to the requirements of each type of offshore wind power operation scene on meteorological ocean conditions and the requirements of the ship type corresponding to each type of offshore wind power operation scene on the meteorological ocean conditions;
and S3, calculating the operation safety index under the situations of the offshore wind power operation scene and the ship type corresponding to the offshore wind power operation scene according to the meteorological ocean element forecast data and the construction safety threshold value by the operation safety index calculation module.
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