CN114548689A - Intertidal zone fan operation risk grade prediction method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a intertidal zone fan operation risk grade prediction method, which comprises the following steps: dividing different operation scenes according to different forms of wind power plant construction and daily maintenance and construction operation of a fan; comprehensively considering different tidal change conditions of intertidal zones, and determining different transportation modes used by equipment and personnel to pass; acquiring relevant parameters of vehicles related to relevant transportation modes; determining meteorological and marine factors influencing fan construction and operation and maintenance operation; acquiring forecast data of meteorological and oceanic factors, and carrying out downscaling processing and format processing on the data; setting the threshold value of each numerical value element according to different operation scenes and related parameters of traffic types, and dividing risk grades; and predicting the risk grade according to the forecast data of the switch element and the numerical element, and analyzing the window period. The invention is beneficial to maintenance personnel to make a reasonable construction operation plan, improves the operation efficiency, reduces the construction and operation and maintenance loss and ensures the safety of the operation personnel.

Description

Intertidal zone fan operation risk grade prediction method

Technical Field

The invention relates to the crossing field of wind turbine maintenance and meteorological ocean forecast early warning of an intertidal wind power plant, in particular to a method for predicting operation risk level of an intertidal wind turbine.

Background

The construction environment of the intertidal zone wind power plant is located between the sea and the land, and sea waves and sea wind can interfere with construction when the tide rises and falls, so that the period of offshore maintenance operation is shortened. In addition, storm surge caused by typhoon landing can cause larger destructive power to wind power operation, and larger potential safety hazard is generated.

Therefore, tidal influence needs to be considered in intertidal wind power plant construction operation compared with offshore wind, and especially, storm surge caused by typhoon and astronomical tide needs to be paid attention. Based on the method, the construction risk levels of the intertidal zone fan in different operation scenes are accurately predicted by combining weather forecast and ocean forecast, and a proper construction window period is determined, so that support is provided for effectively improving the operation efficiency, reducing the operation cost and guaranteeing the safety of operators.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a method for predicting the operating risk level of a wind turbine in an intertidal zone, which is used for accurately prejudging the safety of the wind turbine construction operation of a wind power plant in the intertidal zone.

In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:

the invention provides a intertidal zone fan operation risk grade prediction method, which comprises the following steps:

s1, dividing different operation scenes according to different forms of wind power plant construction and daily maintenance and construction operation of the fan;

s2, comprehensively considering the tidal change conditions of different intertidal zones, and determining different transportation modes used by equipment and personnel to pass;

s3, obtaining relevant parameters of the vehicles related to the relevant transportation modes;

s4, determining meteorological and marine factors influencing the construction and operation and maintenance of the fan;

s5, acquiring forecast data of meteorological and oceanic factors, and performing scale reduction processing and format processing on the data;

s6, setting the threshold value of each numerical value element according to different operation scenes and related parameters of the transportation type, and dividing risk grades;

and S7, predicting the risk level according to the forecast data of the switch elements and the numerical elements, and analyzing the window period.

Further, the operation scene in step S1 is divided into six types, i.e., sea operation, boarding operation, foundation construction, blade hoisting, tower hoisting, and submarine cable laying.

Further, in step S2, when entering the climax period, a flat top barge with shallow draft is used as the vehicle; when entering the low tide period, a beach passage apparatus or a beach transport vehicle is adopted as a transport tool.

Further, the step S3 includes that the vehicle includes a ship, a beach passage apparatus and a beach transportation vehicle;

the ship parameters comprise: draft, vessel weight, vessel form and vessel load bearing;

the beach channel equipment parameters include: the width, length and bearing capacity of the channel equipment, as well as sea wave parameters and ocean current parameters;

the transporter parameters include: vehicle weight, maximum load, wadable depth, and physical dimensions.

Further, the meteorological factors influencing the construction and operation and maintenance of the wind turbine in step S4 include: precipitation, visibility, lightning and wind speed.

Further, the wind speed is obtained by coupling the background wind field and the typhoon wind field according to the following formula:

wherein R is the distance between the forecast point location and the typhoon center point, and alpha is R-R₁/R₂-R₁，R₁＝500km，R₂＝800km，W_bIs the background wind field wind speed; w_mIs typhoon wind speed.

Further, the marine factors affecting the construction and operation and maintenance operations of the wind turbine in step S4 include: the sea wave effective wave height, the wave period, the tide level and the tidal current flow speed, wherein the tide level comprises an astronomical tide level without the influence of typhoon and a storm tide with the influence of typhoon.

Further, the method of step S5 specifically includes: acquiring relevant meteorological and marine element forecast data in seven days in the future, carrying out downscaling processing on the time precision and the space precision of the data, and modifying the data format to obtain hourly meteorological and marine element forecast data files which can be read in by a risk level prediction model.

Further, the risk classification method in step S6 specifically includes:

all elements are divided into two types, one type is a switch element, namely only one judgment condition comprises thunder, tide level and visibility; one type is a numerical element, namely different thresholds are determined as judgment conditions according to different operation scenes and different traffic mode related parameters, including precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tideFlow velocity; setting the limit condition of tidal level at high tide to TL₁The low tide time tide level limiting condition is TL₂；

The switch element does not need to set different grade thresholds, and once lightning occurs or the visibility is less than the required threshold or the tide level TL₂＜TL＜TL₁Predicting the risk level as a major risk, otherwise, judging the numerical value elements;

the numerical element specifically sets two thresholds according to the classified risk levels, namely three levels of no risk, medium risk and major risk: a no risk threshold and a major risk threshold; p is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', namely risk-free threshold values of precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current flow rate are respectively set; p is more than or equal to P ', W is more than or equal to W ', SWH is more than or equal to SWH ', WP is less than or equal to WP ', TS is more than or equal to TS ', namely, the major risk thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current flow rate are respectively, and the rest threshold ranges belong to medium risk.

Further, the risk level prediction method in step S7 includes:

and (3) determining the major risk grade: firstly, judging the switch element, if there is thunder or visibility VISIBB < VISIBB' or tide level TL₂≤TL≤TL₁If the current position is not in the sea or the construction operation is not performed, judging the current position as a major risk level; secondly, if the switch element does not meet the major risk judgment condition, continuing to judge according to the tide level: when the tide level satisfies TL > TL₁If P is more than or equal to P ', or W is more than or equal to W ', or SWH is more than or equal to SWH ', or WP is less than WP ', or TS is more than or equal to TS ', judging that the current situation is the major risk level; if P is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', only 1-2 conditions are met, the current condition is also judged as a major risk level; when the tide level satisfies TL < TL₂If P is more than or equal to P 'or W is more than or equal to W', determining that the current time is the major risk grade, and if P is less than or equal to P 'and W is less than or equal to W', determining that the current time is the major risk grade;

risk-free and intermediate risk level determination: if the important risk condition is determined not to be met through the judgment, the judgment is carried out; making a decision based on the risk-free threshold when the tide level satisfies TL > TL₁When P is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', the condition is judged as a risk-free grade, and if only 3-4 conditions are met, the condition is judged as a medium risk grade; when the tide level satisfies TL < TL₂If P is less than or equal to P 'and W is less than or equal to W', the system is judged to be a no-risk grade, and if only 1 condition is met, the system is judged to be a medium-risk grade;

and calculating to obtain the offshore construction operation window periods of different operation scenes in the intertidal wind power plant within seven days in the future according to the predicted risk level.

Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:

the invention relates to a method for predicting the operation risk grade of a fan in an intertidal zone, which comprises the steps of dividing an operation scene, determining a transportation mode, acquiring related parameters of the transportation mode, determining related oceans and meteorological elements, acquiring and processing data of the oceanographic meteorological elements, setting a numerical element threshold value according to the scene, the related parameters of the transportation mode and the like, judging the risk grade, analyzing a proper window period and the like, setting two types of risk grade prediction elements, namely a switch element and a numerical element, setting the threshold values of different grades for the related numerical elements on the basis of meteorological and oceanographic forecast data and in combination with different fan operation scenes and oceanographic conditions required by different transportation modes in construction, finally predicting the fan operation risk grade at any intertidal zone position at any time according to the two types of elements, including no risk, medium risk, three kinds of grades of major risk, can effectively judge the risk nature of intertidal zone fan operation at any moment in the future according to forecast data such as wind, unrestrained, tide, stream, forecast the risk grade, focus makes accurate prejudgement to the security of intertidal zone wind-powered electricity generation field fan construction operation, help fan maintainer to formulate reasonable construction operation plan, promote the operating efficiency, reduce construction and operation and maintenance loss as far as possible, guarantee operating personnel safety, further realize the stable operation of intertidal zone wind-powered electricity generation field.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art according to the drawings.

Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is a flowchart of risk level determination according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 3 shows the results of the application case provided in the embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed Description

The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments in the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

The intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method disclosed by the invention comprises the following steps as shown in figure 1:

1. according to different forms of intertidal zone wind power plant construction and daily maintenance and construction operation of a fan, an operation scene is divided into six types of operation of going out of the sea, operation of riding on the sea, foundation construction, blade hoisting, tower hoisting and submarine cable laying.

2. Comprehensively considering the tidal change conditions of different intertidal zones, including low tide and high tide, determining different transportation modes used by equipment and personnel passage during the change of the high tide and the low tide: when entering a high tide period, adopting transportation tools such as a flat top barge with shallow draft and the like when meeting a certain tide level condition, and when entering a low tide period, adopting transportation tools such as a beach channel device and a beach transport vehicle when meeting a certain tide level condition; the tide level condition, namely the limit on the tide level height, comprehensively considers the landforms of different areas and different vehicles to determine different tide level heights.

3. Obtaining relevant parameters of vehicles related to different transportation modes, such as:

ship information: draft, vessel weight, vessel form, vessel load, etc.;

information of equipment in the mudflat passage: the width, the length, the bearing capacity, the ocean adaptability parameters (ocean wave parameters and ocean current parameters) of the channel equipment and the like;

information of the transport vehicle: vehicle weight, maximum load, wadable depth, form factor, etc.

4. Determining relevant meteorological and marine elements influencing the construction and maintenance operation of the wind turbine, wherein the elements comprise meteorological elements such as precipitation (P), Visibility (VISIBB), thunder and lightning, wind speed (W) and the like, and marine elements such as sea wave effective wave height (SWH), Wave Period (WP), Tide Level (TL), tidal current flow speed (TS) and the like. Wherein, the tide level comprises an astronomical tide level without the influence of typhoon and a storm tide with the influence of typhoon; the wind speed is obtained by coupling a background wind field and a typhoon wind field according to the following formula:

wherein R is the distance between the forecast point location and the typhoon center point, and alpha is R-R₁/R₂-R₁，R₁＝500km，R₂＝800km。W_bIs the background wind field wind speed; w_mIs typhoon wind speed. All elements are divided into two types, one type is a switch element, namely only one judgment condition comprises thunder, tide level and visibility; one type is a numerical element, namely different thresholds are determined as judgment conditions according to different operation scenes and related parameters of different traffic modes, wherein the judgment conditions comprise precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current speed.

5. Acquiring relevant meteorological and marine element forecast data in seven days in the future, carrying out downscaling processing on the time precision and the space precision of the data, and modifying the data format to obtain hourly meteorological and marine element forecast data files which can be read in by a risk level prediction model.

6. Different operation scenes and different transportation means have different requirements on the environment, so that different operation scenes and transportation means are considered, the influence of tide levels, particularly storm tides, is also considered, the construction operation experience of wind power plants in intertidal zones is combined, the threshold values of various numerical value elements are set, and the risk grades are divided.

The switch element does not need to be set with different grade thresholds, and once lightning occurs or the visibility is less than a required threshold (VISIB < VISIB') or the tide level TL₂＜TL＜TL₁And if the risk level is predicted to be a major risk, namely the construction operation cannot be carried out in the current intertidal zone environment, otherwise, the numerical value elements are judged. It should be noted that, since the intertidal zone construction work can use water vehicles such as ships when the tide level satisfies a certain depth or land vehicles such as transportation vehicles when the tide level is lower than a certain depth, the tide level condition setting includes two cases: setting the limit condition of tidal level at high tide to TL₁The low tide time tide level limiting condition is TL₂When TL > TL is satisfied₁In the process, water vehicles such as ships and the like can be used, and all meteorological and oceanic factors need to be considered at the moment; when TL < TL is satisfied₂In the time, land vehicles such as transport vehicles and the like can be used, and only meteorological factors such as thunder and lightning, visibility, precipitation, wind speed and the like are considered at the moment.

The numerical element specifically sets two thresholds according to the divided risk levels, namely three levels of no risk, medium risk and major risk: a no risk threshold and a major risk threshold; p is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', namely risk-free thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current flow rate are respectively set; p is more than or equal to P ', W is more than or equal to W ', SWH is more than or equal to SWH ', WP is less than or equal to WP ', TS is more than or equal to TS ', namely, the major risk thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current flow rate are respectively included, and the other threshold ranges belong to medium risk.

7. Predicting the hourly risk level according to the divided risk level threshold value based on the processed forecast data of the meteorological marine elements in the seven days in the future, as shown in fig. 2:

judging the major risk grade: firstly, judging the switch element, if there is thunder or visibility VISIBB < VISIBB' or tide level TL₂≤TL≤TL₁If the current position is not in the sea or the construction operation is not performed, judging the current position as a major risk level; secondly, if the switch element does not meet the major risk judgment condition, continuing to judge according to the tide level: when the tide level satisfies TL > TL₁If P is more than or equal to P ', or W is more than or equal to W ', or SWH is more than or equal to SWH ', or WP is less than WP ', or TS is more than or equal to TS ', judging that the current situation is the major risk level; if P is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', only 1-2 conditions are met, the current condition is also judged as a major risk level; when the tide level satisfies TL < TL₂If P is more than or equal to P 'or W is more than or equal to W', determining that the current time is the major risk grade, and if P is less than or equal to P 'and W is less than or equal to W', determining that the current time is the major risk grade;

judging the grades of the risk-free risk and the intermediate risk: if the important risk condition is determined not to be met through the judgment, the judgment is carried out; making a decision based on the risk-free threshold when the tide level satisfies TL > TL₁If P is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', and TS is less than or equal to TS ', determining the system as a risk-free grade, and if only 3-4 conditions are met, determining the system as a medium risk grade; when the tide level satisfies TL < TL₂If P is less than or equal to P 'and W is less than or equal to W', the system is judged to be a no-risk grade, and if only 1 condition is met, the system is judged to be a medium-risk grade.

According to the process, the construction operation risk level of the specific point position of the intertidal zone can be predicted, meanwhile, the time suitable for the offshore operation can be determined according to the predicted risk level, and the offshore construction operation window period of different operation scenes in seven days in the future of the intertidal zone wind power plant can be calculated.

The method of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to examples.

In the embodiment, taking a certain point of intertidal zone of a wind farm in Jiangsu east as an example, the risk level of a foundation construction operation scene in seven days in the future (12 months in 2021, 29 days in 2021-1 month in 2022, 4 days) is predicted in 28 days in 12 months:

adopting a flat top barge with shallow draft in high tide and adopting a mudflat transport vehicle for construction in low tide;

acquiring information of the flat top barge, such as draft, ship weight, ship form, ship bearing and the like, and information of the beach transport vehicle, such as vehicle weight, maximum load, wadable depth, overall dimension and the like;

determining meteorological ocean elements related to construction and maintenance operation: including lightning, tide level and visibility, precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tide flow speed;

acquiring future seven-day forecast data of relevant elements of the meteorological oceans, and performing high-precision interpolation on the data by adopting a double-line interpolation method to realize downscaling processing on the data; determining the no-risk grade and major risk grade threshold value of the offshore operation according to the information of the flat top barge and the beach transport vehicle;

and predicting the hourly work risk level of the future seven days according to the divided risk level threshold value based on the processed forecasting data of the weather oceanic related elements of the future seven days.

The prediction result is shown in fig. 3, wherein black represents a significant risk level, and construction work cannot be performed; grey represents medium risk and construction work is not recommended; white represents a risk-free level, and construction work can be performed.

In addition, the operation window period can be analyzed and obtained at the same time according to the prediction result, and the operation window period comprises four periods: the four periods are suitable for performing the foundation work at 29-16 months at 12-months in 2021, at 05-19 months at 30-months at 12-months in 2021, at 31-08 days at 31-02 days at 1-2 months at 2021, at 31-02 days at 1-2 days at 2022, at 15-23 days at 1-2 months at 2022.

The above-mentioned embodiments are only specific embodiments of the present application, and are used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application, but not limiting the same, and the scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and although the present application is described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that: those skilled in the art can still make modifications or easily conceive of changes to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or make equivalents to some of them, within the technical scope of the present disclosure; such modifications, changes or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present application. Are intended to be covered by the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (10)

1. A intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:

s1, dividing different operation scenes according to different forms of wind power plant construction and daily maintenance and construction operation of the fan;

s2, comprehensively considering the tidal change conditions of different intertidal zones, and determining different transportation modes used by equipment and personnel to pass;

s3, obtaining relevant parameters of the vehicles related to the relevant transportation modes;

s4, determining meteorological and marine factors influencing the construction and operation and maintenance of the fan;

s5, acquiring forecast data of meteorological and oceanic factors, and performing scale reduction processing and format processing on the data;

s6, setting the threshold value of each numerical value element according to different operation scenes and related parameters of the transportation type, and dividing risk grades;

and S7, predicting the risk level according to the forecast data of the switch element and the numerical element, and analyzing the window period.

2. The intertidal zone wind turbine operation risk level prediction method according to claim 1, wherein operation scenes in step S1 are divided into six types, namely, sea going operation, riding operation, foundation construction, blade hoisting, tower hoisting and submarine cable laying.

3. The intertidal fan operation risk level prediction method according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, when entering a high tide period, a flat top barge with shallow draft is adopted as a vehicle; when entering the low tide period, a beach passage apparatus or a beach transport vehicle is adopted as a transport tool.

4. The intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method of claim 1, wherein the step S3 transportation means includes a ship, a beach passage equipment and a beach transportation vehicle;

the ship parameters comprise: draft, vessel weight, vessel form and vessel load bearing;

the beach channel equipment parameters include: the width, length and bearing capacity of the channel equipment, as well as sea wave parameters and ocean current parameters;

the transporter parameters include: vehicle weight, maximum load, wadable depth, and physical dimensions.

5. The method for predicting the risk level of intertidal fan operation according to claim 1, wherein the meteorological factors affecting the fan construction and operation and maintenance operation in the step S4 include: precipitation, visibility, lightning and wind speed.

6. The method of predicting risk level of intertidal zone fan operation according to claim 1, wherein the wind speed is obtained by coupling a background wind field and a typhoon wind field according to the following formula:

wherein R is the distance between the forecast point location and the typhoon center point, and alpha is R-R₁/R₂-R₁，R₁＝500km，R₂＝800km。W_bIs the background wind field wind speed; w_mIs typhoon wind speed.

7. The method for predicting the risk level of intertidal zone fan operation according to claim 1, wherein the marine factors affecting the fan construction and operation and maintenance operation in step S4 include: the sea wave effective wave height, the wave period, the tide level and the tidal current flow speed, wherein the tide level comprises an astronomical tide level without the influence of typhoon and a storm tide with the influence of typhoon.

8. The intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the method of step S5 is specifically: acquiring relevant meteorological and marine element forecast data in seven days in the future, carrying out downscaling processing on the time precision and the space precision of the data, and modifying the data format to obtain hourly meteorological and marine element forecast data files which can be read in by a risk level prediction model.

9. The intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the risk level classification method in step S6 is specifically:

all elements are divided into two types, one type is a switch element, namely only one judgment condition comprises thunder, tide level and visibility; one type is a numerical element, namely different thresholds are determined as judgment conditions according to different operation scenes and related parameters of different traffic modes, wherein the judgment conditions comprise precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current speed; setting the limit condition of tidal level at high tide to TL₁The low tide time tide level limiting condition is TL₂；

The switch element does not need to set different grade thresholds, and once lightning occurs or the visibility is less than the required threshold or the tide level TL₂＜TL＜TL₁Predicting the risk level as a major risk, otherwise, judging the numerical value elements;

the numerical element specifically sets two thresholds according to the classified risk levels, namely three levels of no risk, medium risk and major risk: a no risk threshold and a major risk threshold; p is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', namely risk-free threshold values of precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current flow rate are respectively set; p is more than or equal to P ', W is more than or equal to W ', SWH is more than or equal to SWH ', WP is less than or equal to WP ', TS is more than or equal to TS ', namely, the major risk thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, effective wave height of sea waves, wave period and tidal current flow rate are respectively, and the rest threshold ranges belong to medium risk.

10. The intertidal zone fan operation risk level prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the prediction method of the risk level in step S7 is as follows:

and (3) determining the major risk grade: firstly, judging the switch element, if there is thunder or visibility VISIBB < VISIBB' or tide level TL₂≤TL≤TL₁If the current position is not in the sea or the construction operation is not performed, judging the current position as a major risk level; secondly, if the switch element does not meet the major risk judgment condition, continuing to judge according to the tide level: when the tide level satisfies TL > TL₁If P is more than or equal to P ', or W is more than or equal to W ', or SWH is more than or equal to SWH ', or WP is less than WP ', or TS is more than or equal to TS ', judging that the current situation is the major risk level; if P is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', TS is less than or equal to TS ', only 1-2 conditions are met, the current condition is also judged as a major risk level; when the tide level satisfies TL < TL₂If P is more than or equal to P 'or W is more than or equal to W', determining that the current time is the major risk grade, and if P is less than or equal to P 'and W is less than or equal to W', determining that the current time is the major risk grade;

risk-free and intermediate risk level determination: if the important risk condition is determined not to be met through the judgment, the judgment is carried out; making a decision based on the risk-free threshold when the tide level satisfies TL > TL₁If P is less than or equal to P ', W is less than or equal to W ', SWH is less than or equal to SWH ', WP is greater than or equal to WP ', and TS is less than or equal to TS ', determining the system as a risk-free grade, and if only 3-4 conditions are met, determining the system as a medium risk grade; when the tide level satisfies TL < TL₂If P is less than or equal to P 'and W is less than or equal to W', the system is judged to be a no-risk grade, and if only 1 condition is met, the system is judged to be a medium-risk grade;

and calculating to obtain the offshore construction operation window periods of different operation scenes in the intertidal wind power plant within seven days in the future according to the predicted risk level.

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