CN114943379A - Port operation index prediction method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting port operation indexes, which comprises the steps of operation scene division, ship parameter acquisition, ship type division, cargo type division, determination of meteorological ocean elements influencing operation, acquisition and processing of meteorological ocean forecast data, threshold setting of the influencing elements, operation index calculation, statistical determination of an operation window period and the like, wherein refined meteorological ocean forecast data are utilized, aiming at different requirements of port loading and unloading, ship berthing, channel transportation and cargo storage on meteorological ocean conditions, by combining state parameters such as wind resistance and wave resistance of ships and cargo types, the operation risk levels at any time in the future and under different operation scenes are comprehensively judged by utilizing factors such as wind speed, rainfall, sea waves, swell and visibility, thereby being beneficial to a port scheduling worker to make a reasonable loading and unloading and ship berthing plan in advance, the safe transportation calendar is provided for the channel transportation, and the service support is provided for the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of port operation and the production safety guarantee.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of intelligent port and meteorological marine forecast service, in particular to a port operation index prediction method, which provides service support for four scenes of port loading and unloading, ship berthing, channel transportation and cargo storage.
Background
Port operation is greatly influenced by meteorological marine environments, such as long-time equal mooring caused by extreme weather such as heavy fog and strong wind can cause great economic loss, and disaster weather such as thunder and lightning and strong convection also causes serious threats to operation safety.
Therefore, the intelligent port urgently needs professional weather marine service products, the accurate window period prediction can generate larger benefits for port operation, port loading and unloading and channel transportation plans can be reasonably formulated, the risk that ships lean to leave the berth is reduced, and support is provided for cost reduction, efficiency improvement and production safety guarantee of the port operation.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a port operation index prediction method, which constructs an index model aiming at four scenes (port loading and unloading, ship berthing and departing, channel transportation and cargo storage), three ship types and seven types of cargos and considering 8 meteorological ocean influence factors, can provide risk prediction levels of loading and unloading different cargos at a port, ship berthing different types, ship channel transportation of different types and cargo storage of different types within 7 days in the future, comprises three levels of 'no risk', 'medium risk' and 'major risk', is beneficial to port scheduling workers to make a reasonable loading and unloading and ship berthing plan in advance, provides a safe transportation calendar for channel transportation, improves the operation efficiency, ensures the operation safety, and provides service support for four scenes of port loading and unloading, ship berthing, ship channel transportation and cargo storage.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a method for predicting a port operation index comprises the following steps:
s1: dividing port operation scenes: according to port main operation and operation types, port operation scenes are divided into four categories, namely port loading and unloading, ship berthing, channel transportation and cargo storage;
s2: acquiring ship parameters: acquiring parameter information of a ship, wherein the parameter information comprises ship type, wind resistance level, wave resistance level, draught depth, length, width and tonnage;
s3: dividing the ship types: according to the parameter information of the ship, the ship is divided into three categories, namely a small ship, a medium ship and a large ship;
s4: cargo type classification: according to the actual business requirements of port loading and unloading and cargo storage, considering that different kinds of cargos have different sensitivities to meteorological ocean elements, when the port cargos are loaded and unloaded, the cargos are divided into seven categories of chemical engineering, coal, liquefied gas, oil products, containers, ores and bulk cargos; when goods are stored, the goods are divided into dry bulk goods and dangerous goods;
s5: determining high-influence meteorological ocean elements of different operation scenes: determining high-influence meteorological marine forecast elements of different operation scenes by combining the influence degrees of the meteorological marine forecast elements on loading, unloading or storage of different types of cargos, the influence degrees of different types of ships depending on berths and ship line transportation, wherein the high-influence meteorological marine forecast elements comprise wind speed WS, precipitation TP, effective wave height SWH of sea waves, effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, visibility VIS, thunder and typhoon;
s6, acquiring and processing meteorological ocean forecast data: acquiring meteorological marine lattice point forecast data required by calculating different operation scene indexes for 7 days in the future, and processing the meteorological marine lattice point forecast data into an input data format suitable for an operation index model by using a bilinear downscaling method;
s7, threshold setting of influencing element: considering that the requirements for meteorological ocean elements are different when different types of cargos are loaded, unloaded and stored, different types of ships are transported or are close to berths, risk threshold values of the influence elements are set for different operation scenes, and the influence element factors are divided into two categories: the system comprises a switch element and a numerical element, wherein the switch element comprises visibility, typhoon and thunder and lightning elements; the numerical elements comprise wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of surge waves;
s8, calculating the operation index: forecasting the operation risk level by combining the influence element thresholds of different operation scenes;
s9, statistically determining the job window period: and (4) according to the job risk prediction grade at any time in the future 7 days, statistically determining and giving a suitable job window period time in the future 7 days.
Further, the data processing method in step S6 includes: carrying out spatial downscaling processing on the meteorological ocean lattice point forecast data, interpolating the meteorological ocean lattice point forecast data to the concerned point position of the port, and carrying out format processing on the downscaled forecast data by combining with the input data format requirement of the operation index prediction model to obtain meteorological ocean element forecast data hourly in the future 7 days of the concerned point position of the port, which can be input by the index model.
Further, in step S7, the switch element does not need to set thresholds of different risk levels, and when the port area triggers typhoon warning, lightning activity occurs, or visibility is smaller than a required threshold, port operation is not performed, that is, the operation index prediction level is a major risk, otherwise, the numerical element judgment is performed.
Further, in step S7, the value element sets a threshold value for each high-impact meteorological marine element in different operation scenes, and combines the three classified risk levels: no risk, medium risk, significant risk, two thresholds are set: no risk threshold and major risk threshold, wherein the precipitation amount TP is more than or equal to TP 1 The wind speed WS is more than or equal to WS 1 Air temperature TEM is more than or equal to TEM 1 The effective wave height SWH of the sea wave is more than or equal to SWH 1 Effective wave height SWELL of surge is more than or equal to SWELL 1 ，TP 1 、WS 1 、TEM 1 、SWH 1 、SWELL 1 The major risk thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge are respectively adopted, and the precipitation TP is less than or equal to TP 2 The wind speed WS is less than or equal to WS 2 Air temperature TEM is less than or equal to TEM 2 The effective wave height SWH of sea wave is less than or equal to SWH 2 Effective wave height SWELL of surge is less than or equal to SWELL 2 ，TP 2 、WS 2 、TEM 2 、SWH 2 、SWELL 2 Risk-free threshold values of precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of surge waves are respectively set; the remaining threshold ranges are at moderate risk.
Further, the operation risk level prediction process of step S8 includes sequentially performing the switch element condition determination and the numerical element threshold determination, specifically:
s81, judging by a switch element, if the port area triggers typhoon early warning, lightning activity exists or the visibility VIS is smaller than a required threshold VIS 1 If the port operation is not carried out, namely the operation index prediction grade is a major risk; if the port does not trigger typhoon early warning and lightning activities and the visibility VIS is more than or equal to the requirement threshold VIS1, carrying out next numerical element judgment;
s82, numerical element judgment: firstly, major risk threshold value judgment is carried out on predicted wind speed WS, precipitation TP, air temperature TEM, effective wave height SWH of sea waves and effective wave height SWELL of SWELL, WS1, TP1, TEM1, SWH1 and SWELL1 are respectively major risk threshold values of operation aiming at the wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of SWELL, and if WS is more than or equal to WS 1 Or TP is not less than TP 1 Or TEM is more than or equal to TEM 1 Or SWH ≧ SWH 1 Or SWELL is not less than SWELL 1 If so, the operation risk is determined, namely the operation risk level is a major risk; secondly, operation safety threshold value judgment is carried out on wind speed WS, precipitation TP, air temperature TEM, effective wave height SWH of sea waves and effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, wherein WS is 2 、TP 2 、TEM2、SWH 2 、SWELL 2 Respectively, the operation safety threshold values aiming at the wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge wave, if WS>WS 2 、TP>TP 2 、TEM>TEM 2 、SWH>SWH 2 、SWELL>SWELL 2 If 3 or more than 3 of the five judgment conditions are met simultaneously, the operation is dangerous, namely the operation risk level is a major risk; if 1 or 2 of the five judgment conditions simultaneously meet the conditions, the operation is risky, namely the operation risk level is medium risk; and if the five judgment conditions are not met, the operation is safe, namely the operation risk level is risk-free.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention discloses a method for predicting a port operation index, which comprises the steps of operation scene division, ship parameter acquisition, ship type division, cargo type division, determination of meteorological ocean elements influencing operation, acquisition and processing of meteorological ocean forecast data, threshold setting of the influence elements, operation index calculation, operation window period statistic determination and the like, wherein refined meteorological ocean forecast data are utilized, aiming at different requirements of four scenes of port loading and unloading, ship berthing against, channel transportation and cargo storage on meteorological ocean conditions, state parameters such as wind resistance and wave resistance of ships and cargo types are combined, high-influence elements such as thunder, typhoon, visibility, wind speed, precipitation, high temperature, sea wave height and surge height are comprehensively considered, accurate prediction models of the port operation index facing different operation scenes, different cargos and different ship types are established, and any time of future 7 days, any time, and the like are comprehensively judged, The operation risk levels under different operation scenes are beneficial to port scheduling workers to make reasonable loading and unloading and ship berth plans in advance, a safe transportation calendar is provided for channel transportation, the operation efficiency is improved, the operation safety is guaranteed, and service support is provided for cost reduction, efficiency improvement and production safety guarantee of four scene operations of port loading and unloading, ship berthing, channel transportation and cargo storage.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art according to the drawings.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting a port operation index according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Fig. 2 is a process of predicting job risk levels according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Fig. 3 is a prediction result provided in the embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for predicting a port operation index of the present invention specifically includes the following steps:
s1: dividing port operation scenes: according to port main operation and operation types, port operation scenes are divided into four categories, namely port loading and unloading, ship berthing, channel transportation and cargo storage;
s2: acquiring ship parameters: acquiring parameter information of a ship, wherein the parameter information comprises ship type, wind resistance level, wave resistance level, draft, length, width and tonnage;
s3: dividing the ship types: according to the parameter information of the ship, the ship is divided into three categories, namely a small ship, a medium ship and a large ship; for example, according to tonnage information, a traffic ship is divided into small ships, a bulk carrier is divided into medium ships, and a large container ship is divided into large ships;
s4: cargo type classification: according to the actual business requirements of port loading and unloading and cargo storage, considering that different kinds of cargos have different sensitivities to meteorological ocean elements, when the port cargos are loaded and unloaded, the cargos are divided into seven categories of chemical engineering, coal, liquefied gas, oil products, containers, ores and bulk cargos; when goods are stored, the goods are divided into dry bulk goods and dangerous goods; such as ore, bulk cargo, coal, container, etc. belonging to dry bulk cargo, and chemical industry, liquefied gas, oil product, etc. belonging to dangerous goods
S5: determining high-influence meteorological ocean elements of different operation scenes: determining high-influence meteorological ocean forecast elements of different operation scenes by combining the influence degrees of the meteorological ocean forecast elements on loading and unloading or storage of different types of goods, and transportation of different types of ships by means of berths and air routes, wherein the high-influence meteorological ocean forecast elements comprise wind speed WS, precipitation TP, effective wave height SWH of sea waves, effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, visibility VIS, thunder and typhoon; the list of the high-impact meteorological marine elements in different operation scenes is detailed in table 1.
TABLE 1 high-impact Meteorological ocean element List for different operation scenes
S6, acquiring and processing meteorological ocean forecast data: acquiring meteorological ocean lattice point forecast data required by calculating different operation scene indexes in 7 days in the future, interpolating the meteorological ocean lattice point forecast data to a port concerned point by using a bilinear downscaling method, and performing format processing on the downscaled forecast data by combining with an input data format requirement (TXT or JSON format) of an operation index prediction model to obtain hourly meteorological ocean element forecast data of the port concerned point in the 7 days in the future, wherein the hourly meteorological ocean element forecast data can be input by the index model.
S7, threshold setting of influencing element: considering that the requirements for meteorological ocean elements are different when different types of cargos are loaded, unloaded and stored, different types of ships are transported or are close to berths, risk threshold values of the influence elements are set for different operation scenes, and the influence element factors are divided into two categories: the system comprises a switch element and a numerical element, wherein the switch element comprises visibility, typhoon and thunder and lightning elements; the numerical elements comprise wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of surge waves;
the switch elements are not provided with thresholds with different risk levels, and when a port area triggers typhoon early warning, thunder and lightning activities or visibility is smaller than a required threshold (VIS)<VIS 1 ) And if not, carrying out port operation, namely, judging the operation index prediction level to be a major risk, and otherwise, carrying out numerical value element judgment.
The numerical value elements set the threshold values of each high-influence meteorological ocean element in different operation scenes, and three divided risk levels are combined: there are no risk, medium risk, major risk, two kinds of thresholds have been set: no risk threshold and major risk threshold, wherein the precipitation amount TP is more than or equal to TP 1 The wind speed WS is more than or equal to WS 1 Air temperature TEM is more than or equal to TEM 1 The effective wave height SWH of sea wave is more than or equal to SWH 1 Effective surge wave height SWELL not less than
SWELL 1 ，TP 1 、WS 1 、TEM 1 、SWH 1 、SWELL 1 The major risk thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge are respectively, and the precipitation TP is less than or equal to TP 2 WS is less than or equal to wind speed 2 Air temperature TEM is less than or equal to TEM 2 The effective wave height SWH of sea wave is less than or equal to SWH 2 The effective wave height SWELL of the surge is less than or equal to SWELL 2 ，TP 2 、WS 2 、TEM 2 、SWH 2 、SWELL 2 Risk-free threshold values of precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of surge waves are respectively set; the remaining threshold ranges are at moderate risk.
S8, calculating the operation index: predicting the operation risk levels of different operation scenes of the port in the future 7 days based on the processed high-influence meteorological ocean forecast data in the future 7 days and in combination with the influence element thresholds of different operation scenes;
the operation risk level prediction process sequentially performs the judgment of the switch element condition and the judgment of the numerical value element threshold, as shown in fig. 2, the present embodiment takes a port loading and unloading chemical goods scene as an example, and specifically includes:
s81, judging by a switch element, if the port area triggers typhoon early warning, lightning activity exists or the visibility VIS is smaller than a required threshold VIS 1 ，VIS 1＝ 1km, no port operation is carried out, namely the operation index prediction grade is a major risk; if the port does not trigger typhoon early warning and lightning activity and the visibility VIS is more than or equal to the requirement threshold VIS 1 Then the next step of numerical factor judgment is needed;
s82, numerical element judgment: firstly, major risk threshold judgment is carried out on the predicted wind speed WS, precipitation TP, air temperature TEM, effective wave height SWH of sea waves and effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, wherein WS is 1 、TP 1 、TEM 1 、SWH 1 、SWELL 1 The operation major risk thresholds aiming at the wind speed, the precipitation, the air temperature, the effective wave height of sea waves and the effective wave height of surge waves are respectively 13.9m/s, 25mm, 45 ℃, 1.5m and 1.2m, if WS is more than or equal to WS 1 Or TP is not less than TP 1 Or TEM is more than or equal to TEM 1 Or SWH ≧ SWH 1 Or SWELL is not less than SWELL 1 If so, the operation risk is determined, namely the operation risk level is a major risk; secondly, operation safety threshold value judgment is carried out on wind speed WS, precipitation TP, air temperature TEM, effective wave height SWH of sea waves and effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, wherein WS is 2 、TP 2 、TEM 2 、SWH 2 、SWELL 2 The operation safety threshold values for wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge are respectively 10.8m/s, 16mm, 35 ℃, 1.125m and 0.9m, if WS>WS 2 、TP>TP 2 、TEM>TEM 2 、SWH>SWH 2 、SWELL>SWELL 2 If 3 or more than 3 of the five judgment conditions are met at the same time, the operation is dangerous, namely the operation risk level is a major risk; if 1 or 2 of the five judgment conditions simultaneously meet the conditions, the operation is risky, namely the operation risk level is medium risk; if the five judgment conditions are not met, the operation is safeI.e. the job risk level is risk-free.
Based on the calculation logic, the operation risk level of any time 7 days in the future of the designated point of the port can be predicted.
S9, statistically determining the job window period: according to the operation risk prediction grades of the designated point positions of different operation scenes at any time in the future of 7 days, determining the time suitable for the operation of different operation scenes, and statistically determining the time of the suitable operation window period of the future 7 days.
In this embodiment, a risk level of a cargo handling operation scene of a port in seven days (1 month and 29 days in 2022 to 2 months and 4 days in 2022) in the future is predicted by taking a certain point of the Qingdao port as an example.
First, the type of cargo to be handled needs to be confirmed, taking chemical cargo as an example.
The meteorological marine elements affecting the handling of chemical goods are identified according to table 1: typhoon, thunder, visibility, strong wind, precipitation, high temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge.
Acquiring forecast data (see table 1) of high-impact meteorological marine elements for 7 days in the future, and performing bilinear downscaling processing on the data.
And setting a risk-free grade and a major risk grade threshold value for loading and unloading chemical goods.
And predicting the hourly work risk level of the future seven days according to the divided risk level threshold value based on the processed forecasting data of the weather oceanic related elements of the future seven days.
The prediction results are shown in fig. 3, where black represents a significant risk level, not accessible; grey indicates moderate risk, loading and unloading are risky; white indicates no risk level and is accessible for loading and unloading.
Obtaining a suitable window period for loading and unloading the chemical goods according to the statistical analysis of the risk prediction result, wherein the window period comprises four time periods: the four periods are suitable for basic construction work at 29-16 months in 2022, at 1-29 months in 2022, at 05-19 days in 1-30 months in 2022, at 08-02 months in 2-2 months in 31-08 months in 2022, and at 15-4 days in 2-2 months in 2022, 23 days in 2022.
In conclusion, the invention utilizes refined weather oceanographic forecast data, comprehensively considers high-influence weather oceanographic factors when different kinds of cargos are loaded and unloaded or stored and different kinds of ships lean on or leave berths or are transported, provides operation risk index prediction at any time in the future for different port operation scenes, different types of ships and different types of cargos, determines and gives out proper operation window period time, is convenient for port dispatchers to make reasonable cargo loading and unloading plans, ship berthing time and safe route transportation calendars, takes reasonable cargo storage measures in advance and ensures stable operation of ports.
It should be noted that, in this document, relational terms such as first and second, and the like are used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
All the embodiments in the present specification are described in a related manner, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments may be referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from the other embodiments. In particular, apparatus embodiments, electronic device embodiments, computer-readable storage medium embodiments, and computer program product embodiments are described with relative simplicity as they are substantially similar to method embodiments, where relevant only as described in portions of the method embodiments.
The above-mentioned embodiments are only specific embodiments of the present application, and are used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, but not to limit the technical solutions, and the scope of the present application is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, although the present application is described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that: those skilled in the art can still make modifications or changes to the embodiments described in the foregoing embodiments, or make equivalents to some of the techniques; such modifications, changes or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present application. Are intended to be covered by the scope of this application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting a port operation index is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: dividing port operation scenes: according to port main operation and operation types, port operation scenes are divided into four categories, namely port loading and unloading, ship berthing, channel transportation and cargo storage;
s2: acquiring ship parameters: acquiring parameter information of a ship, wherein the parameter information comprises ship type, wind resistance level, wave resistance level, draft, length, width and tonnage;
s3: dividing the ship types: according to the parameter information of the ship, the ship is divided into three categories, namely a small ship, a medium ship and a large ship;
s4: cargo type classification: according to the requirements of port loading and unloading and actual cargo storage businesses, considering that different kinds of cargos have different sensitivities to meteorological ocean elements, when port cargo loading and unloading are carried out, the cargos are divided into seven categories, namely chemical engineering, coal, liquefied gas, oil products, containers, ores and bulk cargos; when goods are stored, the goods are divided into dry bulk goods and dangerous goods;
s5: determining high-influence meteorological ocean elements of different operation scenes: determining high-influence meteorological ocean forecast elements of different operation scenes by combining the influence degrees of the meteorological ocean forecast elements on loading and unloading or storage of different types of goods, and transportation of different types of ships by means of berths and air routes, wherein the high-influence meteorological ocean forecast elements comprise wind speed WS, precipitation TP, effective wave height SWH of sea waves, effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, visibility VIS, thunder and typhoon;
s6, acquiring and processing meteorological ocean forecast data: acquiring meteorological marine lattice point forecast data required by calculating different operation scene indexes for 7 days in the future, and processing the meteorological marine lattice point forecast data into an input data format suitable for an operation index model by using a bilinear downscaling method;
s7, threshold setting of influencing element: considering that the requirements for meteorological ocean elements are different when different types of cargos are loaded, unloaded and stored, different types of ships are transported or are close to berths, risk threshold values of the influence elements are set for different operation scenes, and the influence element factors are divided into two categories: the system comprises a switch element and a numerical element, wherein the switch element comprises visibility, typhoon and thunder and lightning elements; the numerical elements comprise wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of surge waves;
s8, calculating the operation index: forecasting the operation risk level by combining the influence element thresholds of different operation scenes;
s9, statistically determining the job window period: and according to the operation risk prediction grade at any time of 7 days in the future, statistically determining to give a proper operation window period time of 7 days in the future.
2. The method for predicting the port operation index as claimed in claim 1, wherein the data processing method of step S6 is: and carrying out spatial downscaling processing on the meteorological ocean lattice point forecast data, interpolating the meteorological ocean lattice point forecast data to the port concerned point, and carrying out format processing on the downscaled forecast data by combining with the input data format requirement of the operation index prediction model to obtain meteorological ocean element forecast data hourly in the future 7 days of the port concerned point, which can be input by the index model.
3. The port operation index prediction method according to claim 1, wherein in step S7, the switch element does not need to set threshold values of different risk levels, and when a port area triggers typhoon warning, lightning activity occurs, or visibility is less than a required threshold value, port operation is not performed, that is, the operation index prediction level is a major risk, otherwise, numerical element judgment is performed.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S7, the value element sets the threshold value of each high-impact meteorological ocean element under different operation scenes, and combines three divided risk levels: no risk, medium risk, significant risk, two thresholds are set: no risk threshold and major risk threshold, wherein the precipitation amount TP is more than or equal to TP 1 The wind speed WS is more than or equal to WS 1 Air temperature TEM is more than or equal to TEM 1 The effective wave height SWH of sea wave is more than or equal to SWH 1 And the effective wave height SWELL of surge is more than or equal to
SWELL 1 ，TP 1 、WS 1 、TEM 1 、SWH 1 、SWELL 1 The major risk thresholds of precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge are respectively, and the precipitation TP is less than or equal to TP 2 WS is less than or equal to wind speed 2 Air temperature TEM is less than or equal to TEM 2 The effective wave height SWH of the sea wave is less than or equal to SWH 2 Effective wave height SWELL of surge is less than or equal to SWELL 2 ，TP 2 、WS 2 、TEM 2 、SWH 2 、SWELL 2 Risk-free threshold values of precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, effective wave height of sea waves and effective wave height of surge waves are respectively set; the remaining threshold ranges are at moderate risk.
5. The method for predicting the port operation index as claimed in claim 1, wherein the operation risk level prediction process of step S8 includes the following steps:
s81, judging by a switch element, if the port area triggers typhoon early warning, lightning activity exists or the visibility VIS is smaller than a required threshold VIS 1 If so, the port operation is not carried out, namely the operation index prediction grade is a major risk; if the port does not trigger typhoon early warning and lightning activity and the visibility VIS is more than or equal to the requirement threshold VIS 1 Then the next step of numerical factor judgment is needed;
s82, numerical element judgment: first, for the predicted wind speedWS, precipitation TP, air temperature TEM, effective wave height SWH of sea wave and effective wave height SWELL of surge wave are used for judging major risk threshold value, WS 1 、TP 1 、TEM 1 、SWH 1 、SWELL 1 Respectively aiming at the operation major risk thresholds of wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge, if WS is more than or equal to WS 1 Or TP is not less than TP 1 Or TEM is more than or equal to TEM 1 Or SWH ≧ SWH 1 Or SWELL is not less than SWELL 1 If so, the operation risk is determined, namely the operation risk level is a major risk; secondly, the operation safety threshold value judgment is carried out on the wind speed WS, the precipitation TP, the air temperature TEM, the effective wave height SWH of sea waves and the effective wave height SWELL of surge waves, and the WS is 2 、TP 2 、TEM 2 、SWH 2 、SWELL 2 Respectively, the operation safety threshold values aiming at the wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, effective wave height of sea wave and effective wave height of surge wave, if WS>WS 2 、TP>TP 2 、TEM>TEM 2 、SWH>SWH 2 、SWELL>SWELL 2 If 3 or more than 3 of the five judgment conditions are met simultaneously, the operation is dangerous, namely the operation risk level is a major risk; if 1 or 2 of the five judgment conditions simultaneously meet the conditions, the operation is risky, namely the operation risk level is medium risk; and if the five judgment conditions are not met, the operation is safe, namely the operation risk level is risk-free.
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