CN117095526B - Ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis, which relates to the field of ship operation based on wave spectrum analysis, and comprises the following steps: s1, data collection and analysis: analyzing and extracting the climatic state characteristics of each wave element and each wave spectrum by utilizing the harbour ocean hydrologic history data; s2, forecasting model application: providing wave elements and wave spectrum forecast data for 72 hours or more in the future by using a marine hydrological data forecast model; s3, inputting condition information and analyzing a one-dimensional spectrum: inputting port and ship condition information; and a one-dimensional spectrum analysis is used, and the position and the size of the low-frequency and high-frequency spectrum peaks of the forecast wave spectrum are accurately determined by means of a peak searching algorithm. According to the invention, by dynamically adjusting the wind surge separation method and the surge forecasting and early warning criterion, accurate forecasting is provided for the surge condition under specific sea conditions, so that the ship berthing and operation can be forecasted and early warned in advance, and the safety and feasibility of the ship operation are enhanced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ships and ocean engineering, in particular to a ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis.
Background
In recent years, along with development of wharf specialization and ship enlargement, wharfs such as coastal port minerals, crude oil, da Zong bulk cargo and the like in China rapidly develop, and the wharfs are usually positioned near port doors or outside ports and face adverse factors such as large water depth waves, poor shielding conditions and the like. The berthing operation conditions of ships in harbors are usually standard of effective wave height and wind power, and according to the general design specification of the harbors, the standard of allowable operation of the ship with the weight of more than 15 ten thousand tons in the wharf is as follows: the wind power is less than or equal to 6 levels, the visibility is more than or equal to 1 km, the wave is less than or equal to 2 m, the transverse wave is less than or equal to 1.5 m, and the operation is stopped when a thunderstorm exists. The forecasting of the effective wave height and wind power conditions is a conventional method for influencing the forecasting of the natural conditions of wharf operation. The waves can cause the mooring ships to move greatly, and a plurality of cable breaking accidents occur in some ports at home and abroad under the action of long-period waves, so that the operation safety of the wharf is seriously influenced. The wave height is linear to the influence of the ship sideslip and heave motion, and the ship cable force almost increases exponentially with the increase of the wave height. And under the condition of small wave height variation, the heave motion quantity of the ship is increased and then reduced along with the increase of the wave period, and the wave period corresponding to the maximum value is related to the natural frequency of the ship. The specifications state that for large periodic waves, detailed demonstration by means of spectral analysis of continuous wave logs is required. Under the action of long-period waves, the ship motion is obviously increased along with the increase of wave height. Because the large wharf generally faces the open sea, the influence of waves transmitted from a deep water area is complex, and the damage of the surge transmitted from the open sea to the harbor building is extremely large. When the wave period is close to the inherent period of the ship, resonance causes the ship motion amount and the cable force to be greatly increased, and the affected degree is far greater than that of common stormy waves. Especially under strong natural disasters such as typhoons, the swells tend to dominate the mixed waves, the energy is huge, the destructiveness is strong, and accurate observation and prediction of the swells are important requirements for safe operation of ship wharfs. The influence of the existing sea wave forecasting system on the surge according to the effective wave height and the wind power standard is difficult to accurately forecast and early-warn, so that the forecasting and early-warn of wind surge separation and surge are important optimization directions for forecasting ship operation.
When wind waves and swells coexist, the wave-shaped structure is generally in the form of mixed waves. Criteria for distinguishing stormy waves from surging can be generally categorized into three categories: wave pattern criteria, wave element criteria and wave spectrum analysis. The windward side of the wind wave is steep, the crest line is shorter, and the wave top is provided with wave flower; the surge is gentle in wave surface, longer in crest line and remarkable in regularity. The waveform judgment is often given through field observation, and the ship berthing operation is difficult to forecast and early-warn in advance. The wave element criteria mainly comprise wave height, wave steepness, period, wind speed and other elements, and are given by the relation established by different elements. For different wharfs and ship conditions, the wave element criteria can give corresponding threshold standards, and the combined analysis of a plurality of wave elements can give more accurate wind gushing separation standards, but the forecasting accuracy of the wave elements and the quantity requirements of the wave elements are more strict. The current wind gushing separation method is mainly based on wave spectrum analysis, and comprises a one-dimensional spectrum method and a two-dimensional spectrum method, specifically a 2D method, a PM method, a WH method and a JP method. The PM method and the 2D method consider wind speed conditions, and can give more accurate separation results; the WH method and the JP method directly adopt wave spectrum information, and wind waves and surge waves are separated through factors such as wave steepness, spectrum peak ratio and the like. The judgment is accurate under the condition that the mixed wave spectrum is in a double-peak spectrum, and the applicability of the mixed wave spectrum to the complex mixed wave condition of the offshore area still needs to be further researched and discussed.
The wave period refers to the time required for two adjacent peaks (or troughs) to pass the same point, and is equal to the quotient of the wavelength and the wave speed. The peak period represents the period corresponding to the wave with the highest energy density in the wave spectrum, so that when the surge energy exceeds the storm energy, the peak period can be suddenly increased. The low frequency energy tends to remain for a longer period of time after a significant increase, where the peak period is at a higher value and the change is insignificant. When the surge energy is reduced and gradually disappears, the low frequency spectrum energy density in the wave spectrum is reduced and the frequency of the corresponding low frequency spectrum peak starts to increase, the period of the spectrum peak is reduced, and finally the mutation is reduced, so that the change of the period of the spectrum peak can reflect the change condition of the surge and the stormy waves in the mixed waves. According to the wave statistics principle, each spectral peak of the wave spectrum corresponds to a spectral peak of a different wave system, and a trough between two adjacent spectral peaks can be regarded as a dividing boundary of the two wave systems. Thus, in the wave spectrum of multiple spectral peaks, the change in the low frequency spectrum reflects largely the changing characteristics of the surge energy.
In summary, according to the prediction data of the effective wave height and the wind speed, the effective and accurate wind wave prediction and early warning can be performed on the berthing and the operation of the large-scale port ship at present, but no suitable prediction scheme is provided for the surge prediction and early warning required by the ship operation condition, so that the ship operation condition surge early warning method based on the wave spectrum analysis is provided at present to solve the problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the defects in the prior art, and provides a ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis comprises the following steps:
s1, data collection and analysis: analyzing and extracting the climatic state characteristics of each wave element and each wave spectrum by utilizing the harbour ocean hydrologic history data;
s2, forecasting model application: providing wave elements and wave spectrum forecast data for 72 hours or more in the future by using a marine hydrological data forecast model;
s3, inputting condition information and analyzing a one-dimensional spectrum: inputting port and ship condition information; accurately determining the positions and the sizes of low-frequency and high-frequency spectrum peaks of a forecast wave spectrum by means of a peak searching algorithm by using one-dimensional spectrum analysis, taking a trough between two spectrum peaks as a forecast division frequency, combining the forecast division frequency with a fixed division frequency, and carrying out wind gust separation;
s4, threshold setting and surge early warning judgment: setting a spectrum peak period threshold value, a surge energy threshold value and a surge growth trend threshold value based on the harbor climate state characteristics and the condition information; for predicted wave data, firstly judging whether the effective wave height and the spectrum peak period of the predicted wave data exceed a set threshold value, and if the effective wave height exceeds the threshold value, further surge prediction is not needed; under the condition of the effective wave height, if the spectrum peak period exceeds the judging threshold value, continuously judging whether the surge energy exceeds the threshold value or not and whether the surge energy shows a growing trend or not;
s5, surge early warning release: if the surge energy exceeds the threshold value and is in a growing trend, a surge early warning is issued according to the judging result, and the condition that the surge affecting the safety operation of the ship possibly occurs is prompted.
As a further development of the invention, the climatic state features described in S1 include peak period, wave height, wave pattern.
As a further improvement of the invention, the port and vessel condition information described in S3 includes vessel tonnage, vessel full load or no load natural frequency.
As a further improvement of the invention, the predicted spectrum frequency in S3 is less than the predicted dividing frequency and is more than the predicted dividing frequency.
As a further improvement of the invention, the fixed segmentation frequency described in S3 depends on port and vessel conditions, and is applicable to situations where the prediction segmentation frequency is not found.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the invention adopts a method of analyzing one-dimensional spectrum and wave elements, provides accurate prediction for the surge condition of the ship under specific sea conditions, ensures that the berthing and the operation of the ship can be predicted and early-warned in advance, and enhances the safety and the feasibility of the operation of the ship.
2. According to the invention, through wave spectrum and wave element joint analysis and combining with local natural conditions, the accuracy of wind gushing separation can be greatly improved, and the production and application of wind gushing separation are realized.
3. The invention introduces the concept of dynamic adjustment in the aspects of wind gushing separation method and gushing prediction early warning criterion, shows strong adaptability and flexibility, and requires individualized prediction models for different ports, ships and weather conditions.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the effective wave height and spectral peak period time sequence of the surge generation development process of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic representation of the effective wave height and spectral peak period time sequence of the surge attenuation disappearance process of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the frequency of division and peak position of a typical bimodal spectrum under the dominant mixed wave condition of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the frequency of division and peak positions of a typical bimodal spectrum under the dominant mixed wave and wind conditions of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the frequency of division and peak position of a typical storm mono-peak spectrum of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of the frequency of division and peak position of a typical surge unimodal spectrum of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a graph showing the time series of peak periods of the surge development period spectrum according to the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a graph showing the energy index of a surge during the surge development period of the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a graph showing the time series of peak periods of the surge weakening period spectrum according to the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a graph showing the energy index of a surge during a surge weakening period of the present invention;
FIG. 11 is a block diagram of steps of a method for warning of surge in marine operating conditions based on wave spectrum analysis according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments.
Referring to fig. 1-11, a ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis comprises the following steps:
data collection and analysis stage:
and analyzing and extracting the climatic state characteristics of each wave element and each wave spectrum, including spectrum peak period, wave height, wave spectrum type and the like, by utilizing the harbour ocean hydrologic history data.
The forecasting model application stage:
and providing wave elements and wave spectrum forecast data for 72 hours and more in the future by using a marine hydrological data forecast model. According to the general design specification of the harbor, the average period of the waves in the operation standard of the liquefied natural gas ship is allowed to be 7s, and special demonstration is required for the waves with the period of more than 7 s. The determination threshold value (denoted as T) of the wave period can be determined based on the requirements of the ship operation by taking into consideration factors such as the natural frequency of the operation ship, the mooring mode, the average characteristics of the local wave elements, and the like thr ). In the case of mixed waves, the period of the spectral peakThe change can represent the condition that the wind wave and the surge are dominant respectively. According to wave element data provided by a forecasting system, a time sequence of a future 72h spectrum peak period is provided, when the spectrum peak period has obvious mutation, the spectrum peak period is larger than a judging threshold value T of the port thr In this case, it is determined that a surge disaster that can affect the operation of the ship is generated. As shown in FIG. 1, at 24h, the peak period clearly changed from 5s to 13s, and then remained between 13 and 15 s. Based on the long period characteristics of the swell, it can be judged that the swell has formed.
Similarly, the judging method can judge the time node when the attenuation of the long-period wave disappears. According to the predicted time sequence of the future 72h spectrum peak period, when the spectrum peak period starts to continuously decline or obviously suddenly decline, and at the same time, the spectrum peak period starts to be lower than the port judgment threshold T from a high value thr When the surge disaster is disappeared, the user can judge that the surge disaster is disappeared. Under the conservation condition, the time when the spectrum peak period starts to be at a stable low value is used as a time node when the surge disaster is ended, and the ship can resume normal operation at the moment.
The periodic characteristics of the waves with the most obvious energy in the mixed waves can be captured by judging the period threshold of the spectrum peak, and the identification of the waves in the long period is more accurate. In addition, the judgment index of the spectrum peak period is not hard threshold judgment, and the specific change of the spectrum peak period is analyzed according to the time-varying characteristic of the spectrum peak period, so that more accurate preliminary surge prediction can be given.
Condition information input and one-dimensional spectrum analysis:
and inputting port and ship condition information, such as ship tonnage, ship full load/no load natural frequency and the like.
By means of one-dimensional spectrum analysis, the positions and the sizes of low-frequency and high-frequency spectrum peaks of a forecast wave spectrum are accurately determined by means of a peak searching algorithm, a trough between two spectrum peaks is used as a forecast dividing frequency, the forecast spectrum frequency is smaller than the forecast dividing frequency and is a swell, and the forecast spectrum frequency is larger than the forecast dividing frequency and is a storm. The peak algorithm uses a fixed division frequency in case the predicted division frequency is not found, which depends on port and vessel conditions. In the process of surge generation, development and regressionIn general, the wave spectrum is of a bimodal structure. The method accurately determines the frequency and energy density of each peak and corresponding trough in a bimodal spectrum through a peak searching algorithm, and sets the frequency corresponding to the trough as a division frequency f s A surge less than this frequency is considered a storm more than this frequency.
Further selecting the peak position with the maximum energy density in the surge spectrum, and taking the energy density corresponding to the peak position as the surge energy; and similarly, selecting the peak position with the maximum energy density in the wind wave spectrum, and taking the corresponding energy density as the wind wave energy. For the classical double-peak spectrum situation, the method can accurately divide the storm and surge spectrum section, thereby providing accurate energy separation results.
In the case of treating a typical bimodal spectrum, good results are obtained. As shown in fig. 3, for a typical bimodal spectrum, the method can accurately determine the surge energy density and the storm energy density. For a single peak spectrum, the method also shows higher accuracy for judging the spectrum peak position of the dominant spectrum. However, in the event that the energy of another spectrum is not significant or the waves of a different spectrum are superimposed, an empirical setting of the division frequency may be required.
In order to solve the problem, we can select a certain frequency interval and set a fixed division frequency fs according to the local average climate state or the seasonal average state of the port berth. In this arrangement, the maximum energy density on one side of the peak will correspond to the surge energy in that band, while the maximum energy density in the other band reflects the energy characteristics of the waves in that band.
As shown in fig. 5 and 6, it is assumed that the roll period of a full-load ship at a certain port is 10 seconds. In order to avoid the influence of long period swell on the ship operation, we set the fixed division frequency to fs=0.1 (note that the fixed division frequency is only an example, and the frequency depends on the port and the ship condition in practical application), and the swell is smaller than the frequency and the storm is larger than the frequency. The example of fig. 5 clearly demonstrates the superiority of this approach. The method can accurately find the position and intensity of the spectrum peak of the dominant spectrum and simultaneously display part of the intensity characteristics of the other spectrum. The flexibility of the method enables us to adjust according to the wave spectrum characteristics of different harbor sea areas, so that the segmentation frequency can be set better to adapt to various wave conditions. This further improves the applicability and accuracy of the method under different sea wave conditions.
Threshold setting and surge early warning judgment:
based on the wind surge separation method, the invention optimizes surge early warning related to ship operation. Firstly, setting a spectrum peak period threshold value, a surge energy threshold value and a surge growth trend threshold value based on the harbor climate state characteristics and condition information. In the surge forming stage, the period of significant occurrence of the surge can be accurately identified by a spectrum peak period distinguishing method. Further, on the basis of predicted future 72-hour wave spectrum data, more accurate prediction is realized by separating the time sequence of the energy density of the low-frequency surge spectrum peak. As shown in fig. 8, after the peak period mutation, the surge energy continues to increase, indicating that the surge component is strengthening in the mixed wave. Therefore, the surge energy change can compensate misjudgment possibly caused by the periodic mutation of the spectrum peak.
In the period of the disappearance of the surge, the period of the disappearance of the weakening of the surge is firstly determined by a judging method of a spectrum peak period. Further, the method adopts a threshold judgment strategy of the energy density of the surge spectrum peak. When the energy density of the surge spectrum peak is smaller than a preset threshold value and is kept relatively stable, the surge disaster is judged to have disappeared, so that the forecasting and early warning of the surge disappearing time node is optimized. As shown in fig. 9 and 10, this example shows a long decrease in the peak period of the wave spectrum, whereas the abrupt decrease occurs at around 48 hours. However, from the wave energy density time series, we can observe that the surge energy has been significantly reduced around 24 hours (this is just an example of the evolution of the surge).
The method specifically aims at the surge forecast, and for the forecast wave data, whether the effective wave height and the spectrum peak period of the forecast wave data exceed set thresholds is judged. If the effective wave height exceeds the threshold value, further surge prediction is not needed.
And under the condition of low effective wave height, if the spectrum peak period exceeds the judging threshold value, continuously judging whether the surge energy exceeds the threshold value or not and whether the surge energy shows a growing trend or not.
And (5) surge early warning and publishing:
and under the condition that the spectrum peak period exceeds the threshold value, if the surge energy exceeds the threshold value and is in a growing trend, a surge early warning is issued according to the judging result, and the surge condition which influences the safety operation of the ship is prompted.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art, who is within the scope of the present invention, should make equivalent substitutions or modifications according to the technical scheme of the present invention and the inventive concept thereof, and should be covered by the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. The ship operation condition surge early warning method based on wave spectrum analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, data collection and analysis: analyzing and extracting the climatic state characteristics of each wave element and each wave spectrum by utilizing the harbour ocean hydrologic history data;
s2, forecasting model application: providing wave elements and wave spectrum forecast data for 72 hours or more in the future by using a marine hydrological data forecast model;
s3, inputting condition information and analyzing a one-dimensional spectrum: inputting port and ship condition information; accurately determining the positions and the sizes of low-frequency and high-frequency spectrum peaks of a forecast wave spectrum by using one-dimensional spectrum analysis and a peak searching algorithm, taking a trough between two spectrum peaks as a forecast division frequency, combining the forecast division frequency with a fixed division frequency, and carrying out wind gust separation;
s4, threshold setting and surge early warning judgment: setting a spectrum peak period threshold value, a surge energy threshold value and a surge growth trend threshold value based on the harbor climate state characteristics and the condition information; for predicted wave data, firstly judging whether the effective wave height and the spectrum peak period of the predicted wave data exceed a set threshold value, and if the effective wave height exceeds the threshold value, further surge prediction is not needed; under the condition of the effective wave height, if the spectrum peak period exceeds the judging threshold value, continuously judging whether the surge energy exceeds the threshold value or not and whether the surge energy shows a growing trend or not;
s5, surge early warning release: if the surge energy exceeds the threshold value and is in a growing trend, a surge early warning is issued according to the judging result, and the condition that the surge affecting the safety operation of the ship possibly occurs is prompted.
2. The method for warning of surge in marine operation conditions based on wave spectrum analysis according to claim 1, wherein the climatic state characteristics in S1 include a spectrum peak period, a wave height and a wave spectrum type.
3. The method for pre-warning of surge in marine operation conditions based on wave spectrum analysis according to claim 1, wherein the port and marine condition information in S3 includes the natural frequencies of the tonnage of the marine vessel, the full load and no load of the marine vessel.
4. The method for pre-warning the surge of the ship operation condition based on the wave spectrum analysis according to claim 1, wherein the forecast division frequency in the step S3 is used as a main wind surge separation basis, the forecast spectrum frequency is less than the division frequency and is more than the division frequency, the division frequency is the wind wave, and the fixed division frequency is adopted in the complex wave spectrum.
5. The method for warning of surge in marine operation conditions based on wave spectrum analysis according to claim 1, wherein the fixed division frequency in S3 depends on port and marine conditions, and the division frequency depends on spectrum type.
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| 混合浪作用下系泊船舶运动响应规律试验研究;史宪莹;张宁川;;水动力学研究与进展A辑(05);574-580 * |
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