CN110457751B - Method and system for dynamically predicting and scheduling spot goods of liquefied natural gas receiving station - Google Patents
Method and system for dynamically predicting and scheduling spot goods of liquefied natural gas receiving station Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a spot goods dynamic prediction scheduling method and a system of a liquefied natural gas receiving station, wherein the method comprises the steps of setting a dynamic prediction scheduling system consisting of a distributed control system, a gas management system terminal and a simulation system platform, inputting basic information related to production and operation of the receiving station into the simulation system platform, reading sales plan information from the gas management system terminal by the simulation system platform, reading the production and operation information of the receiving station by the distributed control system and uploading the production and operation information to the simulation system platform, and deducing and calculating planned export transportation capacity of each storage tank on the day by the simulation system platform according to the basic information, the sales plan information and the production and operation information of the receiving station; and generating a dispatching plan of the natural gas dynamic spot goods by the gas management system terminal. In the dynamic spot scheduling plan, the invention fully considers the mixing ratio of the liquefied natural gas of different gas sources and the methane content of the exported natural gas, and can ensure the qualified and stable exported gas quality.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of demand forecasting and scheduling of liquefied natural gas, in particular to a spot goods dynamic forecasting and scheduling method and system for a liquefied natural gas receiving station.
Background
In the LNG (liquefied natural gas) industrial chain, the basic function of a receiving station is to receive and unload a transport ship which is transported from an LNG long-term delivery point through ocean, to store the LNG material in an LNG storage tank after unloading the ship, to transport the gasified LNG to three types of gaseous users, i.e., industrial, civil and gas power plants, according to the demand for downstream gas, and to transport a small portion of LNG directly in a liquid state through an LNG tanker. Due to the practical requirements of peak shaving and unplanned sudden increase of gas consumption for downstream gas consumption and the potential advantages of the multi-receiving station joint shaving, joint supply and joint optimization for guaranteeing the downstream gas consumption market, each receiving station not only executes ADP (annual delivery planning) of each long-term supply point in batches, but also needs to carry out dynamic inter-station transfer through a transfer ship, namely the multi-receiving station carries out dynamic inter-station transfer of a network type structure through the transfer ship. The core content of the method is that discretized bulk LNG material incoming materials are processed simultaneously, continuous LNG materials which are changed continuously and small-batch discrete LNG materials are transported out, the LNG material inventory is kept within a normal range, and the space-time matching is required to be kept in the current time and the future time of more than at least three months.
Currently, the technical means for realizing the above-mentioned content is to manually analyze the LNG inventory level in more than three months in the future by monitoring the tank capacity level of each storage tank in a receiving station through a DCS (distributed control system) of the receiving station, analyzing the matching relationship between a long-term supply point and an ADP (short-term ADP) of the receiving station and the expected demand of downstream gas consumption, deducing the number of transitions between dynamic stations and a time window with high possibility, and uploading the deduced result to a GMS terminal (gas management system) so as to make a dynamic inter-station transition plan of the receiving station. The method is mainly based on subjective experience, the analysis and processing of key data are relatively preliminary, reasonable planning is lacked, and the risk of interfering the normal operation of a receiving station is very high.
The Chinese patent with publication number CN103606021B discloses a dynamic spot goods prediction scheduling method for an LNG receiving station, which comprises the steps of arranging an LNG dynamic spot goods prediction scheduling system consisting of a DCS, an LNG dynamic spot goods prediction scheduling simulation system platform and a GMS terminal in the LNG receiving station; the simulation system platform comprises an initial parameter database, a simulation module, an index and report display module and an analysis database, wherein the simulation module is internally provided with a discrete simulation deduction program which integrates a Monte Carlo algorithm and an operation research queuing theory, and the simulation system platform is connected with the DCS and the GMS terminal through a network; the simulation module executes simulation deduction of a long-term ADP mode, executes simulation deduction of a long-term ADP and dynamic spot cargo request interaction mode, and generates a dispatching plan of LNG dynamic spot cargo by the GMS terminal according to a simulation deduction result. The invention combines the dynamic spot scheduling plan and the original long-term ADP together to form reliable and complete ADP information, and can be widely applied to the dynamic spot prediction scheduling process of various LNG receiving stations.
However, although the LNG receiving station dynamic spot prediction scheduling method can provide a reliable spot prediction scheduling plan for dynamic spot, in the process of making the spot prediction scheduling plan, the mixing ratio of liquefied natural gas from different gas sources and the methane content control of the exported natural gas are not considered, so that the effect on the quality control of the exported natural gas is poor, and thus the improvement is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, embodiments of the present invention provide a method and a system for dynamically predicting and scheduling a local inventory of an lng receiving station, and a computer readable storage medium, so as to solve the technical problem that the existing method for dynamically predicting and scheduling a local inventory of an lng receiving station does not consider the mixing ratio of lng from different gas sources and the methane content of an export natural gas, and has a poor effect on quality control of the export natural gas.
According to a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for dynamically predicting and scheduling ship unloading, storage and production of an LNG receiving station, including the following steps:
s10, arranging a dynamic forecast scheduling system of the spot goods of a liquefied natural gas receiving station in the receiving station, wherein the dynamic forecast scheduling system comprises a distributed control system, a gas management system terminal and a liquefied natural gas forecast scheduling simulation system platform, and the simulation system platform is connected with the distributed control system and the gas management system terminal through a network;
s20, inputting basic information related to production and operation of a receiving station into an initial parameter database of the simulation system platform in advance; the basic information at least comprises the number of storage tanks, the capacity of the storage tanks, the lowest liquid level of the storage tanks, the highest liquid level of the storage tanks, a storage tank capacity table, natural gas source classification and definition standards and a plurality of groups of verified and available different natural gas source proportion combinations;
s30, the simulation system platform reads all sales plan information and ship-time plan information from the gas management system terminal in real time, and the distributed control system reads production operation information of the receiving station at the specified time and uploads the production operation information to the simulation system platform; the sales plan information at least comprises daily export plan total amount under different contracts, the voyage plan information at least comprises ship unloading information of a natural gas transport ship, and the production operation information of the receiving station at least comprises current liquid level of each natural gas storage tank, natural gas average density, export natural gas methane content and actual natural gas export total amount in the previous day;
s40, the simulation system platform calculates the ship unloading plan, planned export volume and planned export volume of each storage tank on the current day according to the basic information, the sales plan information, the shipping schedule information and the production operation information of the receiving station by deduction simulation, and the simulation method comprises the following steps:
firstly, a simulation system platform classifies natural gas in each storage tank according to a pre-input natural gas source classification and definition standard;
the simulation system platform calculates the available liquid level of the storage tank according to the current liquid level of the storage tank and the lowest liquid level of the storage tank, and calculates the actual output of various natural gas in the same day according to the available liquid level of the storage tank and the capacity of the storage tank;
comparing the proportion of the actual export capacity of various natural gas sources in the same day with a plurality of groups of verified and available different natural gas source proportion combinations input in advance by the simulation system platform, selecting a group of closest proportion combination experience values, and calculating the total planned export capacity of the natural gas sources in different types in the same day according to the planned total export capacity in the same day and the selected group of proportion combination experience values;
fourthly, the simulation system platform calculates the planned export capacity and the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the current day according to the total planned export capacity of the gas sources of different types of natural gas on the current day and the number of the storage tanks of each type of natural gas; repeating the deduction process, and calculating ship unloading plans and daily planned exportable volumes of all storage tanks and planned exportable volumes of different air sources and different storage tanks in the whole calculation period;
s50, the simulation system platform stores the ship unloading plan in the calculation period, the daily planned export capacity, the daily planned export capacities of different air sources and different storage tanks and the corresponding basic information in the initial parameter database into the analysis database, generates a production plan of the receiving station according to the analysis database, and simultaneously presents all calculation results in a chart and a visual mode.
In some embodiments, the natural gas source classification and definition criteria include:
rich gas with the value range of 88 percent to more than 92 percent of methane content and 450kg/m 3 Less than or equal to 470kg/m 3 ；
Lean gas with the value range of 92 percent to 96 percent or less of methane content and 430kg/m 3 Density less than or equal to 450kg/m 3 ；
The super lean gas has a value range of 96 percent to less than or equal to 100 percent of methane content and 410kg/m 3 Density less than or equal to 430kg/m 3 。
In some embodiments, between step S30 and step S40 further comprising:
s31, the simulation system platform reads all ship unloading plan information from the gas management system terminal in real time; the unloading plan information at least comprises unloading information, total unloading mass, total unloading volume, natural gas density and methane content of the natural gas transport ship;
s32, classifying the gas sources in the ship unloading plan information by the simulation system platform according to the natural gas source classification and definition standards;
s33, the simulation system platform calculates the proportion of different air sources in the total unloading amount in the preset time according to the ship unloading plan information, the sales plan information, the production operation information of the receiving station and the air source classification result, and appoints each storage tank to be respectively used for storing the air source of the type according to the proportion.
In some embodiments, in the step S31, if there is no ship-unloading information on the current day in the ship-unloading planning information; in step S40, the available liquid level and the planned export amount of each storage tank on the second day in the calculation period may be calculated directly according to the available liquid level, the actual export amount, the planned export amount, and the planned export amount of each storage tank on the current day; wherein the planned exportable volume is equal to the actual exportable volume.
In some embodiments, in the step S31, if the ship unloading plan information includes ship unloading information on the same day, when calculating the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the same day in the step S50, the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the second day needs to be calculated according to the planned export capacity and the ship unloading capacity of each storage tank on the same day.
In some embodiments, if the ship unloading information of the current day is rich gas ship unloading information, the rich gas is averagely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the rich gas, and if the rich gas cannot be completely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the rich gas, the excessive part is unloaded into the lean gas storage tank;
if the ship unloading information of the current day is the lean gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the lean gas into the designated storage tank filled with the lean gas, and if the lean gas cannot be completely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the lean gas, unloading the excessive part into the super lean gas storage tank;
and if the ship unloading information at the same day is the ultra-lean gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the ultra-lean gas into the specified storage tank filled with the ultra-lean gas, and if the ultra-lean gas cannot be completely unloaded into the specified storage tank filled with the ultra-lean gas, unloading the excessive part into the lean gas storage tank.
In some embodiments, if the distributed control system reads that the current liquid level of any one of the storage tanks reaches the upper and lower liquid level limits of the corresponding storage tank at a specified time in step S30 and/or the ratio of the daily actual export capacity of the various types of natural gas in step S40 and a plurality of groups of different verified and available natural gas source ratio combinations input in advance cannot achieve the ratio, the simulation system platform sends out early warning information to remind an operator of manual intervention.
In some embodiments, the gas management system terminal has a human-machine interface, the ship unloading plan information, the sales plan information and the production operation plan information of the receiving station can be displayed, edited, corrected and data exported on the human-machine interface, and the prediction calculation result can be displayed, stored and data exported on the human-machine interface.
According to a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an on-the-spot dynamic prediction scheduling system for a lng receiving station, including: the system comprises a distributed control system, a gas management system terminal and a liquefied natural gas forecast and dispatching simulation system platform; the simulation system platform for liquefied natural gas predictive dispatch comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are communicatively connected with each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to execute the method for liquefied natural gas receiving station on-the-spot dynamic predictive dispatch as described above.
According to a third aspect, embodiments of the present invention provide a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions for causing a computer to execute the method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of an lng receiving station as described above.
The embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the method comprises the steps that a stock dynamic prediction scheduling system of a liquefied natural gas receiving station is arranged at a receiving station, the system comprises a liquefied natural gas prediction scheduling simulation system platform, an initial parameter database is arranged in the liquefied natural gas prediction scheduling simulation system platform, and basic information related to production and operation of the receiving station is input into the initial parameter database in advance (the basic information at least comprises the number of storage tanks, the capacity of the storage tanks, the lowest liquid level of the storage tanks, the highest liquid level of the storage tanks, a storage tank capacity table, natural gas source classification and definition standards and a plurality of groups of verified and available different natural gas source proportioning combinations); meanwhile, reading production operation information of a receiving station at a specified time by using an original distributed control system (the production operation information of the receiving station comprises the current liquid level of each natural gas storage tank, the average density of natural gas, the methane content of exported natural gas and the actual total exported amount of the natural gas in the previous day) and uploading the information to an emulation system platform, and reading all sales plan information (the sales plan information at least comprises the total amount of the daily exported plans under different contracts) and the schedule information (the schedule information comprises the ship unloading information of the natural gas carrier) in real time by using a gas management system terminal and uploading the information to the emulation system platform; the simulation system platform can perform systematic deduction calculation according to received production operation information, sales plan information and basic information of the receiving station and dynamic spot demand, and draw up an accurate dynamic spot scheduling plan in a calculation period under the condition of comprehensively considering the mixing ratio of liquefied natural gas of different gas sources and the methane content of the exported natural gas, so that the successful completion of the sales plan of the receiving station can be ensured, and the requirements of inventory, equipment availability, the gas quality of the exported natural gas and the energy conservation and emission reduction direction are taken into consideration.
2. The gas sources are classified according to the source places, the methane content and the density of the gas sources in the ship unloading plan information, and the classified gas sources are reasonably distributed to storage tanks corresponding to various types according to the classification results of the gas sources, so that the liquefied natural gas ship unloading, storage and production dynamic prediction scheduling system can conveniently control a gas management system terminal to execute a dynamic spot scheduling plan for pushing performance, the successful completion of a sales plan in a calculation period is ensured, and meanwhile, the qualification rate of the gas quality of an external gas source is improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating an implementation of a method for dynamically predicting and scheduling an on-demand liquefied natural gas receiving station according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an on-the-spot dynamic prediction scheduling system of an lng receiving station according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic hardware configuration diagram of an on-the-spot dynamic prediction scheduling system of an lng receiving station according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without any inventive step based on the embodiments of the present invention, are within the scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention provides a spot dynamic prediction scheduling method for a liquefied natural gas receiving station, which comprises the following steps as shown in figure 1:
s10, arranging a spot goods dynamic prediction dispatching system of a liquefied natural gas receiving station in the receiving station, wherein the system comprises a distributed control system 3, a gas management system terminal 2 and a liquefied natural gas prediction dispatching simulation system platform 1, and the simulation system platform 1 is connected with the distributed control system 3 and the gas management system terminal 2 through a network.
S20, inputting basic information related to production and operation of the receiving station into the initial parameter database 11 of the simulation system platform in advance; the basic information at least comprises the number of the storage tanks, the capacity of the storage tanks, the lowest liquid level of the storage tanks, the highest liquid level of the storage tanks, a storage tank capacity table, classification and definition standards of liquefied natural gas sources and a plurality of groups of different verified and available natural gas source proportion combinations.
In some embodiments, the basic information may further include the number of docks, the number of discharging arms of a dock and the maximum discharge flow, the number of low-pressure pumps in the storage tank and the rated capacity of the low-pressure pumps, the specification of the lng carrier, the methane content requirement of the export natural gas, the upper and lower limits of the pressure of the export pipeline, the basic properties of the delivery pipeline, and the settings of various alarm and warning values.
S30, the simulation system platform reads all sales plan information and the shipping schedule information in real time from the gas management system terminal, reads the updated information in real time, and the distributed control system reads the production operation information of the receiving station at the appointed time and uploads the information to the simulation system platform; the sales plan information at least comprises daily export plan total amount under different contracts, the voyage plan information at least comprises ship unloading information of the natural gas transport ship, and the production operation information of the receiving station at least comprises current liquid level, natural gas average density, export natural gas methane content and previous day actual natural gas export total amount of each natural gas storage tank.
In some embodiments, the sales plan information also includes the total daily export plans under different contracts.
In some embodiments, the ship unload plan information further includes ship unload information, total cargo mass, total cargo volume, natural gas density, and methane content for the natural gas carrier. The simulation system platform classifies the gas sources in the ship unloading plan information according to the classification and definition standards of the liquefied natural gas sources (the specific classification and definition standards are shown below); and the simulation system platform calculates the proportion of different gas sources in the total unloading amount in a preset time according to the ship unloading plan information, the sales plan information and the production operation information of the receiving station and by combining the gas source classification result, and appoints each storage tank to be respectively used for storing the gas source of the type according to the proportion.
Specifically, the designated time is preferably zero every day, and the distributed control system reads data at night due to low electricity fee at night, so that electricity fee consumed in working processes of a low-pressure pump, a high-pressure pump, a seawater pump and the like connected to each storage tank on the receiving station can be reduced.
In some embodiments, the simulation system platform may also read the previous day outgoing natural gas average heating value and average waviness index in real time from the gas management system terminal at the daily zero.
S40, the simulation system platform calculates the ship unloading plan, planned export volume and planned export volume of each storage tank on the current day according to the basic information, the sales plan information, the shipping schedule information and the production operation information of the receiving station by deduction simulation, and the simulation method comprises the following steps:
firstly, the simulation system platform classifies the natural gas in each storage tank according to the classification and definition standards of the natural gas source input in advance.
In this embodiment, the lng sources are classified into three types, i.e., rich gas, lean gas and super lean gas, and the three types of sources have the following defined criteria:
rich gas with the value range of 88 percent to more than 92 percent of methane content and 450kg/m 3 Density is less than or equal to 470kg/m 3 ；
Lean gas with the value range of 92 percent to 96 percent or less of methane content and 430kg/m 3 Density less than or equal to 450kg/m 3 ；
The super lean gas has a value range of 96 percent to less than or equal to 100 percent of methane content and 410kg/m 3 Density less than or equal to 430kg/m 3 。
In some embodiments, more types of gas sources can be formulated according to the gas source quality, the methane content, and the like of the gas source location, and the classification criteria can be performed similar to the above-mentioned defining criteria, and are not described herein again.
And secondly, calculating the available liquid level of the storage tank by the simulation system platform according to the current liquid level of the storage tank and the lowest liquid level of the storage tank, and calculating the actual output of various natural gas types in the same day according to the available liquid level of the storage tank and the capacity of the storage tank.
Specifically, the available tank level is the current tank level — the lowest tank level.
Comparing the proportion of the actual export capacity of various natural gas sources in the same day with a plurality of groups of verified and available different natural gas source proportion combinations input in advance by the simulation system platform, selecting a group of closest proportion combination experience values, and calculating the total planned export capacity of the natural gas sources in different types in the same day according to the planned total export capacity in the same day and the selected group of proportion combination experience values.
Fourthly, the simulation system platform calculates the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the current day according to the total planned export capacity of the natural gas sources of different types on the current day and the number of the storage tanks of each type of liquefied natural gas; and repeating the deduction process to calculate the ship unloading plan and the daily planned export volume of each storage tank and the planned export volumes of different air sources and different storage tanks daily in the whole calculation period.
Specifically, when the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the current day is calculated, the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the current day is calculated according to the principle that the total planned export capacity of a certain gas source is evenly distributed in the gas source storage tank.
In this embodiment, the number of the storage tanks of each category of the liquefied natural gas is calculated according to the long-term supply contract, the processing contract and the annual ship unloading plan in the ship unloading plan information, in combination with the classification of the liquefied natural gas sources in the previous step, the proportion of the different types of gas sources in the annual unloading total amount is calculated, and which type of gas source each storage tank is mainly used for unloading is preliminarily specified according to the proportion. Therefore, each storage tank can be fully utilized, and the phenomenon that the number of the storage tanks of certain category of liquefied natural gas is too small or too large to influence the reasonable discharge of the gas source to the designated storage tank is avoided.
S50, the simulation system platform stores the ship unloading plan in the calculation period, the daily planned export capacity, the daily planned export capacities of different air sources and different storage tanks and the corresponding basic information in the initial parameter database into the analysis database, generates a production plan of the receiving station according to the analysis database, and simultaneously presents all calculation results in a chart and a visual mode.
The deduction process of step S40 specifically includes the following steps:
the first step is as follows: judging whether ship unloading information exists on the current day in the ship unloading plan information; if the judgment result is negative, the second step is executed, and if the judgment result is positive, the third step is executed.
The second step is that: directly calculating the available liquid level and the planned outputtable quantity of each storage tank on the second day in the calculation period according to the available liquid level, the actual outputtable quantity, the planned outputtable quantity and the planned outputtable quantity of each storage tank on the current day; wherein the planned exportable volume is equal to the actual exportable volume.
The third step: and calculating the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the second day according to the planned export capacity and the ship unloading capacity of each storage tank on the current day.
When ship unloading information exists in the ship unloading plan information on the current day, different types of air sources are respectively stored in the storage tanks of corresponding types according to the air source types in the ship unloading information on the current day, and the specific allocation method comprises the following steps: and if the ship unloading information at the same day is rich gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the rich gas into the designated storage tank filled with the rich gas, and if the rich gas cannot be completely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the rich gas, unloading the excessive part into the lean gas storage tank. And if the daily ship unloading information is the lean gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the lean gas into the designated storage tank filled with the lean gas, and if the lean gas cannot be completely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the lean gas, unloading excessive parts into the super lean gas storage tank. And if the daily ship unloading information is the ultra-lean gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the ultra-lean gas into the appointed storage tank filled with the ultra-lean gas, and if the ultra-lean gas cannot be completely unloaded into the appointed storage tank filled with the ultra-lean gas, unloading the excessive part into the lean gas storage tank. The gas source formula adjusting method can ensure that various storage tanks can store the liquefied natural gas of corresponding gas source types as reasonably as possible, thereby ensuring the gas quality and the methane content of the exported liquefied natural gas.
In the method for dynamically predicting and scheduling the spot goods of the liquefied natural gas receiving station provided by the embodiment of the invention, in the process of deduction calculation, if the distributed control system reads that the current liquid level of any one of the storage tanks reaches the upper and lower liquid level limits of the corresponding storage tank (namely, tank approaching and empty phenomena occur) at the specified time in the step S30, or the proportion of the daily actual export capacity of various types of natural gas in the step S40 and a plurality of groups of different verified available natural gas source proportion combinations which are input in advance cannot realize the proportion (namely, cannot meet the requirement of gas-to-mass ratio), the simulation system platform controls the gas management system terminal to send out early warning information, informs detailed information of abnormal working conditions, and prompts a user to perform manual intervention.
The method for dynamically predicting and scheduling the spot goods of the liquefied natural gas receiving station has the following beneficial effects that:
1. the method comprises the steps that a stock dynamic prediction scheduling system of a liquefied natural gas receiving station is arranged at a receiving station, the system comprises a liquefied natural gas prediction scheduling simulation system platform, an initial parameter database is arranged in the liquefied natural gas prediction scheduling simulation system platform, and basic information related to production and operation of the receiving station is input into the initial parameter database in advance (the basic information at least comprises the number of storage tanks, the capacity of the storage tanks, the lowest liquid level of the storage tanks, the highest liquid level of the storage tanks, a storage tank capacity table, natural gas source classification and definition standards and a plurality of groups of verified and available different natural gas source proportioning combinations); meanwhile, reading production operation information of a receiving station at a specified time by using an original distributed control system (the production operation information of the receiving station comprises the current liquid level of each natural gas storage tank, the average density of natural gas, the methane content of exported natural gas and the actual total exported amount of the natural gas in the previous day) and uploading the information to an emulation system platform, and reading all sales plan information (the sales plan information at least comprises the total amount of the daily exported plans under different contracts) and the schedule information (the schedule information comprises the ship unloading information of the natural gas carrier) in real time by using a gas management system terminal and uploading the information to the emulation system platform; the simulation system platform can perform systematic deduction calculation according to received production operation information, sales plan information and basic information of the receiving station and dynamic spot demand, and draw up an accurate dynamic spot scheduling plan in a calculation period under the condition of comprehensively considering the mixing ratio of liquefied natural gas of different gas sources and the methane content of the exported natural gas, so that the successful completion of the sales plan of the receiving station can be ensured, and the requirements of inventory, equipment availability, the gas quality of the exported natural gas and the energy conservation and emission reduction direction are taken into consideration.
2. The gas sources are classified according to the source places, the methane content and the density of the gas sources in the ship unloading plan information, and the classified gas sources are reasonably distributed to storage tanks corresponding to various types according to the classification results of the gas sources, so that the liquefied natural gas ship unloading, storage and production dynamic prediction scheduling system can conveniently control a gas management system terminal to execute a dynamic spot scheduling plan for pushing performance, the successful completion of a sales plan in a calculation period is ensured, and meanwhile, the qualification rate of the gas quality of an external gas source is improved.
3. When ship unloading information and daily external output of various gas sources are available, all the low-pressure pumps, the high-pressure pumps and the seawater pumps are reasonably adjusted to work at the daily zero point, so that the production efficiency of the low-pressure pumps, the high-pressure pumps and the seawater pumps can be improved, and the unit energy consumption of liquefied natural gas production can be reduced.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a spot dynamic prediction scheduling system of the liquefied natural gas receiving station, which comprises a distributed control system 3, a gas management system terminal 2 and a liquefied natural gas prediction scheduling simulation system platform 1. The specific human-computer interface of the gas management system terminal 2, ship unloading plan data, sales plan information and production operation plan information of the receiving station can be displayed, edited, corrected and data exported on the human-computer interface, and the prediction calculation result can be displayed, stored and data exported on the human-computer interface. Various historical data in the work and the dispatching of a spot goods dynamic prediction dispatching system of a liquefied natural gas receiving station can be completely stored, historical actual ship unloading information query, actual tank storage production information query and actual delivery volume data query in a ship period can be realized through a historical information tracing query function, and the query data and the actual data are compared.
According to the present invention, a liquefied natural gas forecast and dispatch simulation system platform 1 is directly or indirectly connected with an existing DCS system (distributed control system 3), an LNG storage tank metering system and a PHD real-time database of a receiving station to extract data in real time, and extracts data from an existing GMS system (gas management system terminal 2) of a company in a Web Service manner, wherein the system should satisfy high compatibility and high reliability data communication with the DCS system, the LNG storage tank metering system, the PHD real-time database and the GMS system of an owner receiving station. The system should simultaneously support an OPC communication protocol and a Web Service interface, and support the introduction of plan data in a text mode, an Excel mode and the like.
The system for on-the-spot dynamic prediction scheduling of lng receiving stations further includes, but is not limited to, a processor 51 and a memory 52, wherein the processor 51 and the memory 52 may be connected by a bus or other means, and fig. 3 illustrates the connection by a bus as an example.
The processor 51 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU). The Processor 51 may also be other general purpose processors, Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) or other Programmable logic devices, discrete Gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or combinations thereof.
The memory 52 is a non-transitory computer readable storage medium that can be used to store non-transitory software programs, non-transitory computer executable programs, and modules, such as program instructions/modules corresponding to the method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of lng receiving stations in the embodiments of the present invention. The processor 51 executes the non-transitory software programs, instructions and modules stored in the memory 52 to execute various functional applications and data processing of the processor, namely, to implement the on-the-spot dynamic prediction scheduling method of the lng receiving station in the above method embodiment.
The memory 52 may include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an application program required for operating the system, at least one function; the storage data area may store data created by the processor 51, and the like. Further, the memory 52 may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-transitory memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, flash memory device, or other non-transitory solid state storage device. In some embodiments, the memory 52 may optionally include a memory located remotely from the processor 51, and such remote memory may be connected to the processor 51 via a network. Examples of such networks include, but are not limited to, internetworks, intranets, local area networks, mobile communication networks, and combinations thereof.
The one or more modules are stored in the memory 52 and, when executed by the processor 51, perform an on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling method for lng receiving stations as in the embodiments of fig. 1-2.
The details of the above-mentioned unmanned aerial vehicle can be understood by referring to the corresponding related descriptions and effects in the embodiments shown in fig. 1-2, which are not described herein again.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by a computer program, which can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. The storage medium may be a magnetic Disk, an optical Disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a Flash Memory (Flash Memory), a Hard Disk (Hard Disk Drive, abbreviated as HDD), a Solid State Drive (SSD), or the like; the storage medium may also comprise a combination of memories of the kind described above.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, those skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and such modifications and variations fall within the scope defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A spot dynamic prediction scheduling method for a liquefied natural gas receiving station is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s10, arranging a dynamic forecast scheduling system of the spot goods of a liquefied natural gas receiving station in the receiving station, wherein the dynamic forecast scheduling system comprises a distributed control system, a gas management system terminal and a liquefied natural gas forecast scheduling simulation system platform, and the simulation system platform is connected with the distributed control system and the gas management system terminal through a network;
s20, inputting basic information related to production and operation of the receiving station into an initial parameter database of the simulation system platform in advance; the basic information at least comprises the number of storage tanks, the capacity of the storage tanks, the lowest liquid level of the storage tanks, the highest liquid level of the storage tanks, a capacity table of the storage tanks, classification and definition standards of natural gas sources and a plurality of groups of verified and available different natural gas source proportion combinations;
s30, the simulation system platform reads all sales plan information and ship-time plan information from the gas management system terminal in real time, and the distributed control system reads production operation information of the receiving station at the specified time and uploads the production operation information to the simulation system platform; the sales plan information at least comprises daily export plan total amount under different contracts, the voyage plan information at least comprises ship unloading information of a natural gas transport ship, and the production operation information of the receiving station at least comprises current liquid level, natural gas average density, export natural gas methane content and previous day actual natural gas export total amount of each natural gas storage tank;
s40, the simulation system platform carries out deduction simulation calculation to the ship unloading plan, the planned export volume and the planned export volume of each storage tank on the current day according to the basic information, the sales plan information, the shipping schedule information and the production operation information of the receiving station, and the simulation system platform comprises the following steps:
classifying natural gas in each storage tank according to a pre-input natural gas source classification and definition standard by a simulation system platform;
the simulation system platform calculates the available liquid level of the storage tank according to the current liquid level of the storage tank and the lowest liquid level of the storage tank, and calculates the actual output of various natural gas in the same day according to the available liquid level of the storage tank and the capacity of the storage tank;
comparing the proportion of the actual output capacity of various natural gas sources in the same day with a plurality of groups of verified available different natural gas source ratio combinations input in advance by the simulation system platform, selecting a group of closest ratio combination experience values, and calculating the total planned output capacity of the natural gas sources in different types in the same day according to the planned total output capacity in the same day and the selected group of ratio combination experience values;
fourthly, the simulation system platform calculates the planned export capacity and the planned export capacity of each storage tank on the current day according to the total planned export capacity of the gas sources of different types of natural gas on the current day and the number of the storage tanks of each type of natural gas; repeating the deduction process, and calculating the ship unloading plan and the daily planned outputtable volume of each storage tank and the planned outputtable volumes of different air sources and different storage tanks every day in the whole calculation period;
s50, the simulation system platform stores the calculation period internal ship unloading plan, daily planned export volume, planned export volume of different air sources and different storage tanks and the basic information in the initial parameter database, and generates the production plan of the receiving station based on the basic information, and simultaneously displays all calculation results in a chart and a visual mode.
2. The method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of lng receiving stations of claim 1, wherein the natural gas source classification and definition criteria comprise:
rich gas, its value range is 88%The content of methane is less than or equal to 92 percent and 450kg/m 3 Less than or equal to 470kg/m 3 ；
Lean gas with the value range of 92 percent to 96 percent or less of methane content and 430kg/m 3 Density less than or equal to 450kg/m 3 ；
The super lean gas has a value range of 96 percent to less than or equal to 100 percent of methane content and 410kg/m 3 Density less than or equal to 430kg/m 3 。
3. The method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of lng receiving stations of claim 2, further comprising between step S30 and step S40:
s31, the simulation system platform reads all ship unloading plan information from the gas management system terminal in real time; the unloading plan information at least comprises unloading information, total unloading mass, total unloading volume, natural gas density and methane content of the natural gas transport ship;
s32, the simulation system platform classifies the gas sources in the ship unloading plan information according to the natural gas source classification and the definition standard;
s33, the simulation system platform calculates the proportion of different gas sources in the total unloading amount in the preset time according to the ship unloading plan information, the sales plan information, the production operation information of the receiving station and the gas source classification result, and appoints each storage tank to be respectively used for storing the gas source of the type according to the proportion.
4. The method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of an lng receiving station according to claim 3, wherein in the step S31, if the ship-unloading plan information includes no ship-unloading information on the current day; in step S40, the available liquid level and the planned export amount of each storage tank on the second day in the calculation period can be calculated directly according to the available liquid level, the actual export amount, the planned export amount, and the planned export amount of each storage tank on the current day; wherein the planned exportable volume is equal to the actual exportable volume.
5. The method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of an lng receiving station according to claim 3, wherein if the ship-unloading schedule information includes ship-unloading information on the current day in step S31, the planned export amount of each tank on the second day is calculated from the planned export amount and the ship-unloading amount of each tank on the current day when calculating the planned export amount of each tank on the current day in step S50.
6. The method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of an LNG receiving station of claim 5,
if the ship unloading information at the same day is rich gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the rich gas into the designated storage tank filled with the rich gas, and if the rich gas cannot be completely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the rich gas, unloading the excessive part into the lean gas storage tank;
if the ship unloading information of the current day is the lean gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the lean gas into the designated storage tank filled with the lean gas, and if the lean gas cannot be completely unloaded into the designated storage tank filled with the lean gas, unloading the excessive part into the super lean gas storage tank;
and if the ship unloading information at the same day is the ultra-lean gas ship unloading information, averagely unloading the ultra-lean gas into the specified storage tank filled with the ultra-lean gas, and if the ultra-lean gas cannot be completely unloaded into the specified storage tank filled with the ultra-lean gas, unloading the excessive part into the lean gas storage tank.
7. The method as claimed in claim 6, wherein if the distributed control system reads that the current liquid level of any one of the storage tanks reaches the upper and lower liquid level limits of the corresponding storage tank at a specified time in the step S30 and/or the ratio of the actual export capacity of each type of natural gas in the day in the step S40 and the previously input groups of different verified and available natural gas source ratio combinations cannot achieve the ratio, the simulation system platform sends out warning information to remind an operator of manual intervention.
8. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the gas management system terminal has a human-machine interface, the ship unloading plan information, the sales plan information and the production operation plan information of the receiving station can be displayed, edited, corrected and data exported on the human-machine interface, and the prediction calculation result can be displayed, stored and data exported on the human-machine interface.
9. A spot goods dynamic prediction scheduling system of a liquefied natural gas receiving station is characterized by comprising a distributed control system, a gas management system terminal and a liquefied natural gas prediction scheduling simulation system platform; the liquefied natural gas predictive dispatch simulation system platform comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are connected with each other in a communication way, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to execute the on-the-spot dynamic predictive dispatch method of the liquefied natural gas receiving station according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
10. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a computer to perform the method for on-the-spot dynamic predictive scheduling of an lng receiving station according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
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