CN112613653A - Multi-oil-source balance plan making method and system - Google Patents

Multi-oil-source balance plan making method and system Download PDF

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CN112613653A
CN112613653A CN202011502116.7A CN202011502116A CN112613653A CN 112613653 A CN112613653 A CN 112613653A CN 202011502116 A CN202011502116 A CN 202011502116A CN 112613653 A CN112613653 A CN 112613653A
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oil
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许少新
谢勇
李舒丹
王啸
肖可
邓晨
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China Petroleum and Chemical Corp
Huazhong University of Science and Technology
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Huazhong University of Science and Technology
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for making a multi-oil-source balance plan, which belong to the field of making oil-source balance plans of product oil pipelines, and comprise the following steps: decomposing the tube month-conveying plan by taking hours as a time unit to obtain a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan; for a dispatching plan except the management and transportation month plan, dynamically loading the dispatching plan onto a corresponding daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan according to a station yard, a product oil category and a plan execution window corresponding to the dispatching plan so as to adjust the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan, and taking the adjusted dispatching plan as a daily execution plan; and predicting the stock of various types of product oil in each station according to the daily execution plan and different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of product oil in any station is abnormal. The invention applies the idea of combining the baseline plan and the adjustment plan to predict and deduce the plan of the finished oil inventory, and can effectively reduce the risk of pipeline operation.

Description

Multi-oil-source balance plan making method and system
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of oil source balance plan making of finished oil pipelines, and particularly relates to a multi-oil source balance plan making method and system.
Background
The pipe network of the finished oil pipe in China has large transmission capacity, a plurality of transmission varieties and complex resource sources, so that the difficulty in making a batch plan of the pipe network is high. The resource source of a long-distance finished oil pipeline relates to simultaneous injection of resources of a plurality of refineries and a plurality of ports, so that the balance work among a plurality of oil sources is particularly important.
The oil source balance dispatching plan is generally divided into a monthly plan and a daily plan, but because the monthly plan is long in execution period, the specific plan execution period in each day may not be completed according to time and quantity due to the influence of various uncertain factors. Therefore, in the case of multiple oil sources, the influence of various uncertain factors needs to be dealt with through real-time daily dispatching plan adjustment under the condition of ensuring monthly total supply and demand balance, which brings certain challenges to the formulation and execution of the daily dispatching plan.
At present, the existing oil source balance plan making method mainly aims at solving the problem of planning and executing long-distance pipeline transportation batches, a multi-oil source balance plan is rarely made for long-distance pipelines with multiple oil sources, and how to balance the transportation sequence and transportation amount among injection points on a resource organization level is not considered, so that the pipeline operation efficiency is possibly reduced. In addition, the real-time inventory and the empty capacity of each station need to be fully considered in the formulation of the balance plan of the finished oil pipeline, so that the adverse effect caused by the 'supply interruption' or 'warehouse blockage' of oil products is prevented. In the traditional oil source balance plan making method, manual calculation is generally adopted for calculating dynamic inventory, and due to the fact that the calculation amount of the dynamic inventory is large, manual calculation is time-consuming and labor-consuming, errors can occur inevitably, and certain risks are brought to pipeline operation.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects and improvement requirements of the prior art, the invention provides a multi-oil-source balance plan making method and a multi-oil-source balance plan making system, aiming at predicting and planning the finished oil inventory and reducing the pipeline operation risk by using the idea of combining a baseline plan and an adjustment plan.
To achieve the above object, according to one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a multi-oil source balancing planning method, including:
a daily dispatching baseline plan generating step: decomposing the tube month-conveying plan by taking hours as a time unit to obtain a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan; the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan determines the delivery sequence of each batch and various types of product oil, the start-stop time of pipe delivery and the branch delivery flow within 24 hours each day;
adjusting the daily dispatching baseline plan: for a dispatching plan except the management and transportation month plan, dynamically loading the dispatching plan onto a corresponding daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan according to a station yard, a product oil category and a plan execution window corresponding to the dispatching plan so as to adjust the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan, and taking the adjusted dispatching plan as a daily execution plan;
early warning step: and predicting the stock of various types of product oil in each station according to the daily execution plan and different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of product oil in any station is abnormal.
Furthermore, in the early warning step, a dynamic inventory updating model is adopted to predict the inventory of various types of product oil in each station;
for a given yard, a given category of product oil, the dynamic inventory update model is:
Figure BDA0002843899790000021
wherein I (t +1) and I (t) represent the inventory of a given type of product oil at a given yard at the next and current date, respectively; i represents an oil source number, i is 1,2,3i(t) represents the current oil feed from the ith source,
Figure BDA0002843899790000022
representing the total oil inlet amount in the current period; j represents the oil flow number, j is 1,2,3, and n, n represents the oil flow number,
Figure BDA0002843899790000023
indicating the total oil production at that time.
Further, different time scales include hours, days, and weeks.
Further, dispatch plans other than the monthly transportation plan include rail, road, and water transportation plans.
Further, the method for making the multi-oil-source balance plan provided by the invention further comprises the following steps:
and when the stock abnormality of any type of finished oil stock in any station is detected, making a corresponding adjustment plan.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a multi-oil source balancing planning system, comprising: the daily dispatching and transportation base line plan generating module, the daily dispatching and transportation base line plan adjusting module and the early warning module;
the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan generating module is used for decomposing the tube and month transportation plan by taking hours as time units to obtain a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan; the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan determines the delivery sequence of each batch and various types of product oil, the start-stop time of pipe delivery and the branch delivery flow within 24 hours each day;
the daily base line dispatching plan adjusting module is used for dynamically loading dispatching plans to corresponding daily dispatching base line plans according to station yards, product oil categories and plan execution windows corresponding to the dispatching plans for dispatching plans except the management and transportation monthly plan so as to adjust the daily dispatching base line plans, and taking the adjusted dispatching plans as daily execution plans;
and the early warning module is used for predicting the stock of various types of finished oil in each station according to the daily execution plan and different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of finished oil in any station is abnormal.
Further, the early warning module predicts the stock of various types of product oil in each station by adopting a dynamic stock updating model;
for a given yard, a given category of product oil, the dynamic inventory update model is:
Figure BDA0002843899790000031
wherein I (t +1) and I (t) represent the inventory of a given type of product oil at a given yard at the next and current date, respectively; i represents an oil source number, i is 1,2,3i(t) represents the current oil feed from the ith source,
Figure BDA0002843899790000032
representing the total oil inlet amount in the current period; j represents the oil flow number, j is 1,2,3, and n, n represents the oil flow number,
Figure BDA0002843899790000041
indicating the total oil production at that time.
Generally, by the above technical solution conceived by the present invention, the following beneficial effects can be obtained:
(1) the invention applies the idea of combining the baseline plan and the regulation plan, decomposes the management and transportation month plan into the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan, and loads other dispatching and transportation plans except the management and transportation month plan as the regulation plans on the corresponding daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan to play a role in regulating the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan.
(2) On the basis of decoupling a complex multi-oil-source network model, the dynamic inventory updating model for a single station and a single oil product is provided, management personnel can be assisted to carry out inventory prediction of the finished oil product, adjustment simulation of a plan is realized, early warning is carried out in advance, plan adjustment is carried out, risks of 'blockage' and 'supply interruption' of each station can be effectively reduced, and powerful support is provided for the protection and supply of the finished oil product market.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a model of a typical product oil delivery network architecture provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a multi-source balancing planning method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a daily dispatch baseline plan provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a trend of inventory changes of oil products in the first station S1 in the daily dispatching baseline plan according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a diagram illustrating a trend of a change in gasoline stock number 92 in the head station S1 including a road plan according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the embodiments of the present invention described below may be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.
In the present application, the terms "first," "second," and the like (if any) in the description and the drawings are used for distinguishing between similar elements and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order.
In order to predict and plan a finished oil depot and reduce the risk of pipeline operation, the invention provides a multi-oil-source balance plan making method and a multi-oil-source balance plan making system, and the overall thought is as follows: the idea of combining the baseline plan and the regulation plan is that the management and transportation month plan is decomposed into a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan, and other dispatching and transportation plans except the management and transportation month plan are used as the regulation plans and are loaded on the corresponding daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan to play a role in regulating the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan. And further providing a dynamic inventory updating model aiming at a single station and a single oil product to assist a manager in predicting the inventory of the finished oil product, so that the adjustment simulation of a plan is realized, early warning is performed in advance, and the plan is adjusted.
The technical scheme of the invention is further explained by taking the multi-oil-source balance plan preparation of the finished oil of the middle petrochemical southwest pipeline as an example.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a typical product oil delivery network, wherein S1-S8 represent various stations including refineries, initial stations and ports, and L1-L4 represent transportation pipelines, and the following examples are performed with respect to the product oil delivery network shown in fig. 1. The following are examples.
Example 1:
a multi-oil source balance planning method, as shown in fig. 2, includes: a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan generation step, a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan adjustment step and an early warning step;
the daily dispatching baseline plan generating step comprises the following steps:
decomposing the tube month-conveying plan by taking hours as a time unit to obtain a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan; the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan determines the delivery sequence of each batch and various types of product oil, the start-stop time of pipe delivery and the branch delivery flow within 24 hours each day;
the delivery month plan determines the delivery sequence, the delivery time and the delivery flow rate of each batch of the product oil, and the delivery start and stop time and the delivery flow rate of each oil product in a month; the embodiment decomposes the management and transportation monthly plan into the daily dispatching baseline plan, which is beneficial to dealing with the influence of various uncertain factors by adjusting the daily dispatching baseline plan in real time under the condition of ensuring the monthly total supply and demand balance;
in this embodiment, the head station S1 is used as a unique outlet for outward output of product oil in this area, all requirements of downstream provincial companies need to be met, the monthly management transportation plan of S1 is continuously decomposed according to 24-hour time units each day, and a daily allocation and transportation baseline plan of a certain day of the month is obtained, because of a large data volume, only the daily allocation and transportation baseline plan of a certain day of the month is taken as an example, the schedule table corresponding to the daily allocation and transportation baseline plan of the head station S1 on this day is specifically shown in fig. 3, and according to the daily allocation and transportation baseline plan, the stock change trend of each oil product in the day of the head station S1 is shown in fig. 4;
the daily dispatching baseline plan adjusting step comprises the following steps:
for a dispatching plan except the management and transportation month plan, dynamically loading the dispatching plan onto a corresponding daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan according to a station yard, a product oil category and a plan execution window corresponding to the dispatching plan so as to adjust the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan, and taking the adjusted dispatching plan as a daily execution plan;
the dispatching plans other than the transportation and transportation month plan comprise a railway, a road and a water transportation plan, and in the embodiment, the dispatching plan specifically comprises a road plan, the plan execution period of the road plan is started at 13 days, the total amount of the ground payment flow is 6500t, the ground payment flow is 650t/h, and on the basis of the corresponding daily dispatching baseline plan, in a head station S1, a gasoline No. 92 is added with an oil outlet item at 14 days, namely the ground payment, as shown in FIG. 5;
the early warning step comprises the following steps:
predicting the stock of various types of product oil in each station according to a daily execution plan and different time scales, such as hours, days, weeks and the like, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of product oil in any station is not in a safety stock range;
in the embodiment, a dynamic inventory updating model is specifically adopted to predict the inventory of various types of product oil in each station;
for first station S1, 92# gasoline, the dynamic inventory update model is:
Figure BDA0002843899790000071
wherein, IS1(t +1) and IS2(t) indicating the stock of # 92 gasoline in the next and current lead stations S1, respectively; i represents an oil source number, i is 1,2,3i(t) represents the current oil feed from the ith source,
Figure BDA0002843899790000072
representing the total oil inlet amount in the current period; j represents the oil flow number, j is 1,2,3, and n, n represents the oil flow number,
Figure BDA0002843899790000073
representing the total oil production in the current period;
as shown in fig. 5, in the case of no adjustment, the initial time t is 6, and assuming that the oil inlet and oil outlet rates of each oil source are kept at a constant speed, as can be seen from fig. 5, from the time t is 6, the oil inlet of S2 lasts for 11 hours, the output of L1 lasts for 9 hours, the above dynamic inventory update model is iterated to calculate the inventory I at the time t is 23s1(t +17), the specific iterative process is as follows:
Figure BDA0002843899790000074
in the embodiment, because a highway plan is introduced to adjust the daily dispatching baseline plan, the execution period of the highway plan starts from 13 days, the total amount of the ground payment flow is 6500t, the ground payment flow is 650t/h, the execution period lasts for 10 hours, and the oil outlet flow number is changed to 2 from 13 days; adjustment of on-highway plansUsing the following steps, starting from t-6, feeding oil in S2 for 11 hours, outputting L1 for 9 hours, outputting road plan from t-13 for 10 hours, and iterating through the dynamic inventory updating model to calculate the inventory I at t-23s1(t +17), the specific iterative process is as follows:
Figure BDA0002843899790000075
Figure BDA0002843899790000081
in this embodiment, an idea of combining a baseline plan and an adjustment plan is applied, and a complex multi-oil-source network model is decoupled into prediction for a single site and a single oil inventory, so that prediction analysis can be performed on the inventory of each site and each oil in real time and dynamically, based on the prediction analysis, a 24-hour inventory change trend graph of 92# gasoline at the first site S1 this day is specifically shown in fig. 5, and it can be known from the prediction analysis result shown in fig. 5 that the 92# gasoline inventory will be reduced to below the safe inventory at 23 hours, as shown by a dotted line in fig. 5, and at this time, corresponding early warning information will be generated.
In order to deal with the inventory abnormality that the station inventory cannot guarantee the continuous operation of the pipeline or the inventory may block the warehouse, when the inventory abnormality is detected, corresponding early warning information is generated, and a corresponding adjustment plan is made, for example, the need to pay a demand in advance or supplement other oil source modes is avoided, so that the situations that the inventory is too low and normal pipeline transportation is affected are avoided, and the pipeline operation risk is further reduced.
Example 2:
a multi-source balancing planning system, comprising: the daily dispatching and transportation base line plan generating module, the daily dispatching and transportation base line plan adjusting module and the early warning module;
the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan generating module is used for decomposing the tube and month transportation plan by taking hours as time units to obtain a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan; the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan determines the delivery sequence of each batch and various types of product oil, the start-stop time of pipe delivery and the branch delivery flow within 24 hours each day;
the daily base line dispatching plan adjusting module is used for dynamically loading dispatching plans to corresponding daily dispatching base line plans according to station yards, product oil categories and plan execution windows corresponding to the dispatching plans for dispatching plans except the management and transportation monthly plan so as to adjust the daily dispatching base line plans, and taking the adjusted dispatching plans as daily execution plans;
the early warning module is used for predicting the stock of various types of finished oil in each station according to the daily execution plan and different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of finished oil in any station is abnormal;
in this embodiment, the detailed implementation of each module may refer to the description in the above method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the invention, and that any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A multi-oil source balance planning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
a daily dispatching baseline plan generating step: decomposing the tube month-conveying plan by taking hours as a time unit to obtain a daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan; the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan determines the delivery sequence of each batch and each type of product oil, the start-stop time of pipe delivery and the branch delivery flow within 24 hours each day;
adjusting the daily dispatching baseline plan: for the dispatching plans except the pipe transportation month plan, dynamically loading the dispatching plans to the corresponding daily dispatching baseline plan according to the station yard corresponding to the dispatching plans, the types of the product oil and the plan execution window so as to adjust the daily dispatching baseline plan, and taking the adjusted dispatching plans as daily execution plans;
early warning step: and predicting the stock of various types of product oil in each station according to the daily execution plan and different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of product oil in any station is abnormal.
2. The multi-oil-source balance plan making method according to claim 1, wherein in the early warning step, the dynamic inventory updating model is adopted to predict the inventory of various types of product oil at each station;
for a given yard, a given category of product oil, the dynamic inventory update model is:
Figure FDA0002843899780000011
wherein I (t +1) and I (t) represent the next and current inventories of the given yard, the given type of product oil, respectively; i represents an oil source number, i is 1,2,3i(t) represents the current oil feed from the ith source,
Figure FDA0002843899780000012
representing the total oil inlet amount in the current period; j represents the oil flow number, j is 1,2,3, and n, n represents the oil flow number,
Figure FDA0002843899780000013
indicating the total oil production at that time.
3. The method of claim 1 or 2, wherein the different time scales comprise hours, days and weeks.
4. The method of claim 1 or 2, wherein the dispatch plan other than the pipe-to-month plan includes a railroad, highway and water plan.
5. The multi-oil source balancing planning method according to claim 1 or 2, further comprising:
and when the stock abnormality of any type of finished oil stock in any station is detected, making a corresponding adjustment plan.
6. A multi-source balancing planning system, comprising: the daily dispatching and transportation base line plan generating module, the daily dispatching and transportation base line plan adjusting module and the early warning module;
the daily allocation and transportation baseline plan generating module is used for decomposing the tube and month transportation plan by taking hours as time units to obtain a daily allocation and transportation baseline plan; the daily dispatching and transportation baseline plan determines the delivery sequence of each batch and each type of product oil, the start-stop time of pipe delivery and the branch delivery flow within 24 hours each day;
the daily baseline allocation and transportation plan adjusting module dynamically loads the allocation and transportation plan to the corresponding daily allocation and transportation baseline plan according to the station yard corresponding to the allocation and transportation plan, the type of the product oil and a plan execution window, so as to adjust the daily allocation and transportation baseline plan, and the adjusted allocation and transportation plan is used as a daily execution plan;
and the early warning module is used for predicting the stock of various types of finished oil in each station according to the daily execution plan and different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting that the stock of any type of finished oil in any station is abnormal.
7. The multi-source balance planning system of claim 6 wherein the early warning module employs a dynamic inventory update model to predict the inventory levels of various types of product oil at each yard;
for a given yard, a given category of product oil, the dynamic inventory update model is:
Figure FDA0002843899780000021
wherein I (t +1) and I (t) represent the next and current inventories of the given yard, the given type of product oil, respectively; i represents an oil source number, i is 1,2,3i(t) represents the current oil feed from the ith source,
Figure FDA0002843899780000031
representing the total oil inlet amount in the current period; j represents the oil flow number, j is 1,2,3, and n, n represents the oil flow number,
Figure FDA0002843899780000032
indicating the total oil production at that time.
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