CN103606020A - Multipoint network type dynamic inter-station transfer forecasting dispatching method for LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) receiving stations - Google Patents
Multipoint network type dynamic inter-station transfer forecasting dispatching method for LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) receiving stations Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a multipoint network type dynamic inter-station transfer forecasting dispatching method for LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) receiving stations. A multipoint network type dynamic inter-station transfer forecasting dispatching system of receiving stations is built among multiple long-term supplying points, multiple receiving stations, multiple transport ships and multiple transfer ships, and the system comprises DCS (Distributed Control System) and GMS (Gas Management System) terminals respectively arranged in each receiving station, and a dynamic inter-station transfer simulation system platform arranged in any receiving station, wherein the simulation system platform is internally provided with a simulation module in which a discrete simulation deduction program combining Monte Carlo Algorithm and operations research queuing theory together is installed, after being started, the simulation module can simulate a simulation deduction process of a dynamic inter-station transfer request proposed by the receiving station according to real-time gas consumption needs of downstream users while automatically simulating long-term ADP (Annual Delivery Plan), finally, each GMS terminal generates the dynamic inter-station transfer dispatching plan of the receiving station according to a simulation deduction result, and thus, multipoint network type 'joint guarantee' and 'joint supply' gas consumption is realized. The multipoint network type dynamic inter-station transfer forecasting dispatching method for the LNG receiving stations can be widely used in the dynamic inter-station transfer forecasting dispatching process of multiple long-term supplying points, multiple receiving stations, multiple transport ships and multiple transfer ships.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of LNG(liquefied natural gas (LNG)) transhipment prediction dispatching method, particularly about a kind of, can meet many LNG dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching method between station of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station that point (factory of liquefying) ,Duo LNG receiving station, many LNG cargo ship and many LNG transferring ship form of supplying for a long time.
Background technology
In LNG industrial chain, the basic function of receiving station is the cargo ship of unloading and supplying for a long time and a little coming through ocean sea-freight from LNG, after being unloaded a ship, LNG material is stored in LNG storage tank, according to downstream gas demand, outside after LNG gasification, transport to industry, civilian and plant gas three class gaseous state users, also sub-fraction LNG is passed through to the directly liquid outward transport of LNG tank car simultaneously.For downstream, with controlled atmosphere peak and outside the plan uprushing, use the practical demand of gas, and multi-receiver station uniting and adjustment, alliance, combined optimization ensure the potential advantages in Yong Qi market, downstream, each receiving station is except carrying out the ADP(year delivery schedule of each long-term supply of material point by batch ground), the demand that also has transhipment between dynamically standing by transferring ship, multi-receiver station carries out the demand of transporting between the dynamic station of network structure by transferring ship.Its core content is large LNG material supplied materials of simultaneously processing discretize, the discrete LNG material outward transport of the continuous LNG material constantly changing and short run, keep LNG stock material in normal range, and require to keep space-time coupling within current and following more than at least three months time.
At present, realize the technological means of foregoing normally by the DCS(scattered control system of single receiving station) in monitoring station the tank appearance level of each storage tank, analyze the ADP(of long-term supply of material Dian Dui receiving station, be called for short long-term ADP) and the matching relationship of downstream use gas anticipated demand, LNG inventory level to following three months above time is carried out manual analysis, infer between the dynamic station that possibility is higher and transport quantity and time window, and inferred results is uploaded to GMS terminal (gas management system) terminal, thereby make diversion plan between the dynamic station of receiving station.This method is taken as the leading factor with subjective experience, and critical data analysis and process comparatively elementaryly lacks reasonably plannedly, and the risk of disturbing receiving station normally to move is very high.In downstream, use gas undulatory property is large, as long-term supply of material point delivery, to ETA estimated time of arrival, there is the delay of Yi Tianwei unit, transferring ship transport power anxiety and the schedule time are shorter, receiving station harbour exists under the impact of all multivariate elements such as boisterous high likelihood, particularly how long facing phase supply of material point, while existing network-type transhipment to be related between multi-receiver station, the result of this manual analysis is coarse and general, often be difficult to mate between rational station and transport time window, thereby cause storage tank occur " slack tank " (the vacant tank of reserved storage tank holds larger), or " forcing tank " (LNG storage is higher, be difficult to carry out filling), the phenomenons such as receiving station's harbour craft and transferring ship queuing, cannot meet multi-site uniting and adjustment, the production run requirement of alliance, and then affect OPPORTUNITY ON DECISION-MAKING adversely, cause serious economic loss, as fine, dynamically between station, transport premium higher, reduce downstream air demand, even cannot provide effective guarantee for normal air feed.
Summary of the invention
For the problems referred to above, the object of this invention is to provide and a kind ofly can meet dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching method between station of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station that how long phase supply of material point, multi-receiver station, many cargo ships and many transferring ships form.
For achieving the above object, the present invention takes following technical scheme: transhipment prediction dispatching method between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station, it comprises the following steps: 1) how long, between phase supply of material point, multi-receiver station, many cargo ships and many transferring ships, be provided with dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching system between station of a multidrop network type LNG, it comprises: be separately positioned on DCS in each receiving station, be arranged between the dynamic station in any receiving station and transport Simulation System Platform and be separately positioned on the GMS terminal in each receiving station; In Simulation System Platform, be provided with initial parameter database, be built-in with and combine emulation module, index and report display module and the analytical database that program is deduced in the discrete emulation of Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory; Described Simulation System Platform connects DCS and the GMS terminal of each receiving station by network; 2) in the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform, pre-entered raw data, it comprises the supply of material information of each long-term supply of material point to corresponding receiving station, outer defeated and liquid year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information of transporting outward user of tank car of rock gas in each receiving station downstream, in the corresponding receiving station gathering by each DCS, the initial liquid level of each storage tank and total tank hold information, and storage tank dynamic monitoring index; 3) Simulation System Platform upgrades the information in initial parameter database, it comprise by each DCS real-time collecting to each receiving station in real-time level information and total tank of each storage tank hold information, the up-to-date weather forecast of the inclement weather information in harbour and navigation channel, according to the historical data report of a nearly term, the gas contract of purchasing of current signing, the fluctuating range with gas demand and hour flow of the up-to-date proposition of downstream user, the liquid outward transport of tank car of prediction and the outer defeated user's of rock gas year, month, day, hour demand information; 4) Simulation System Platform starts emulation module and carries out emulation deduction, it comprises the following steps: 1. emulation module reads in the data message after initial parameter database update, the long-term ADP of scanning fixed time Nei Ge receiving station, if which receiving station does not have long-term ADP, program is deduced in the emulation that stops Dui Gai receiving station; If have long-term ADP, enter next step; 2. emulation module, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, is analyzed except long-term ADP, whether has also started transhipment request between dynamic station: if do not start dynamically transhipment request between station, enter step 3.; Otherwise, enter step 4.; 3. carry out long-term ADP pattern, emulation module carries out emulation deduction according to default long-term ADP, and output is carried out the emulation of long-term ADP situation and deduced result; 4. carry out long-term ADP and dynamically between station, transport request interactive mode, be that emulation module is in the long-term ADP of simulation, simulate this receiving station according to the real-time gas demand of using of downstream user, transhipment request between the dynamic station of sending based on Tank Capacity, simulation dynamically between station transhipment request by dynamically turn round between station through LNG preferable procedure definite delivery receiving station and transferring ship, responded, walkthrough scheduling is transhipment and transferring ship go the to deliver process of receiving station's picking between station dynamically; 5), after emulation is deduced and finished, in index and report display module, show the emulation deduction result of transhipment request interactive mode between the output long-term ADP of execution and dynamic station; 6) Simulation System Platform is deduced result and corresponding initial parameter database information thereof by emulation, deposit analytical database in, and quantity and the time window of demand will dynamically be transported between station in the fixed time, by network, be uploaded to GMS terminal, GMS terminal generates the operation plan of transporting between the dynamic station of LNG of this receiving station accordingly.
Between step 5) and step 6), increase by a checking emulation and deduce the step of result, concrete operation method is: step 5) emulation is deduced and between the dynamic station in result, to be transported time window and distribute to change into and between station, transport ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as object emulation and deduce; If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) emulation to deduce result correct, be stored in analytical database, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust the emulation deduction that initial parameter database information carries out a new round.
The present invention is owing to taking above technical scheme, it has the following advantages: 1, the present invention is due to the phase supply of material point how long, multi-receiver station, in the network structure that many cargo ships and many transferring ships form, be provided with dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching system between station of a multidrop network type LNG, in this system, be provided with one and dynamically transport prediction scheduling simulation system platform, and in Simulation System Platform, be provided with initial parameter database, emulation module, index and report display module and analytical database, utilize the various information in the DCS acquisition station arranging in original each receiving station simultaneously, transhipment demand between the receiving station that therefore the present invention can produce by reasons such as controlled atmosphere peak and seasonal fluctuations according to downstream and the dynamic station of receiving station, by emulation module, walk abreast and carry out between long-term ADP and the dynamic station of scheduling and transport mutual complex process according to each receiving station of sequential simulation according to condition, generate ADP and dynamically quantity and the time match relation of transhipment between station for a long time in the fixed time, and be uploaded to GMS terminal by network, GMS terminal can be drafted out accurately accordingly and dynamically between station, transport operation plan.2, the present invention is because process is deduced in the built-in discrete emulation that combines Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory in emulation module, therefore can be to the undulatory property that between dynamic station, transhipment is asked, Uncertainty distribution, to ETA estimated time of arrival, there is the delay of Yi Tianwei unit in the delivery of long-term supply of material point, available LNG transhipment resource price fluctuation, there is boisterous high likelihood in receiving station harbour, cargo ship, the uncertain factors such as reliability of the outer transfer device of transferring ship and LNG are carried out careful mathematics manipulation, thereby provide homogenization qualitative results really, between the network-type station that not only makes emulation deduction result and carry out accordingly, transport decision-making and dispatch more accurately credible, and the data in various calculating processes can be stored in analytical database, in order to carrying out historical review and inquiry.Transhipment prediction dispatching system between the dynamic station that 3, the present invention arranges, except predicting and generate between dynamic station, transport time window distribution, can also be according to the deduction result in preset time length, careful, provide cargo ship and transferring ship, supply point, dynamically transhipment supply of material point, high-low liquid level of storage tank and time-space attribute statistics and the expense statistical report form of forcing tank-slack tank to report to the police between station for a long time imperfectly, for further improving and extension system peripheral function provides higher possibility.4, the present invention is due in transhipment prediction dispatching system between the dynamic station arranging, by network mode, make full use of original DCS image data in receiving station, and by network mode, be connected with GMS terminal and send deduce result, effectively improved the automaticity of whole system, make the present invention can be according to actual needs, the management of upgrading transhipment request between the dynamic station in the fixed time and corresponding waiting operation plan ，Shi receiving station is more scientific, modernization.5, the present invention can process simultaneously and a plurality ofly not intersect or interfere transhipment prediction scheduling between the dynamic stations that are related to receiving station, thereby solve in prior art prediction, dynamically between station, transports the reserved problem such as inaccurate of the poor and acquisition cycle of low, the practical operability of accuracy.The present invention is this to be deduced between the dynamic station of each receiving station predicting and transports operation plan together with original long-term ADP through emulation, has jointly formed accurately and reliably and complete ADP information, can meet better downstream gas demand, and this is that prior art is not accomplished.The present invention can be widely used in transhipment between the various dynamic the stations how long phase supplies between point, multi-receiver station, many cargo ships and many transferring ships and predict in scheduling process.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is multidrop network type system schematic of the present invention
Fig. 2 is transhipment prediction dispatching system schematic diagram between the dynamic station of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station of the present invention
Fig. 3 is Tank Capacity monitor control index schematic diagram of the present invention
Fig. 4 is that the present invention predicts scheduling flow schematic diagram
Fig. 5 is the preferable procedure schematic flow sheet that turns round between LNG of the present invention dynamically stands
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is described in detail.
As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the present invention includes following steps:
1) set up dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching system between station of a multidrop network XingLNG receiving station
How long, between phase supply of material point, multi-receiver station, many cargo ships and many transferring ships, be provided with dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching system between station of a multidrop network type LNG, it comprises: the LNG that be separately positioned on DCS1 in each receiving station, is arranged in any Yi Zuo receiving station dynamically transports Simulation System Platform 2 and is separately positioned on the GMS terminal 3 in each receiving station between station.Wherein, DCS1 and GMS terminal 3 are existing setting in each receiving station; In Simulation System Platform, be provided with initial parameter database 21, emulation module 22, index and report display module 23 and analytical database 24; Simulation System Platform network connects DCS1 and the GMS terminal 3 of each receiving station.
Emulation module 22 is built-in with the discrete emulation deduction process that combines Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory.Wherein Monte carlo algorithm is to take probability and statistical methods as basis, and the problem solving is associated with appropriate probability model, produces a large amount of random numbers or pseudo random number is carried out statistical simulation or sampling, to obtain approximate solution with computing machine; Monte Carlo derivation algorithm is the method that generates random number in calculation procedure, is the technology of open and widespread use.Operational research waiting line theory is by service object's arrival and the statistical research of service time, draws the statistical law of quantitative indexes such as comprising stand-by period, queue length, busy period length; Operational research waiting line theory is the setting of queue discipline and probability distribution function, and this function itself is the technology of open and widespread use.Discrete emulation mode is the concrete computer program that combines operational research waiting line theory and Monte Carlo derivation algorithm, by this computer program, it is careful that each element is carried out, intactly describe, the working rule of each element is adopted and run simultaneously and according to condition two kinds of patterns in chronological order, according to objective practical operation, process the element mobility of discrete flow and continuous stream completely, discrete emulation mode, according to continuously, evenly spaced time series, according to actual workflow and activity command, sequentially change at the appointed time the duty of above-mentioned element and entity, also be the technology that belongs to open and widespread use.The concrete condition that the present invention deals with problems as required, different description objects and corresponding relation each other, introduce the present invention by above-mentioned the whole bag of tricks, and it be applied in the emulation deduction process of various models particularly.
2) raw information in initial parameter database 21
1. the long-term ADP of the interior pre-stored You Ge of initial parameter database 21 receiving station, each long-term supply of material point is to the round two-way voyage navigation channel of corresponding receiving station, carry out cargo ship and the transferring ship for dynamically transporting between station of long-term ADP, each the long-term supply of material inner all kinds of facilities of point and attached harbour, harbour, the inner all kinds of facilities of receiving station and attached harbour, harbour, operation and the setup time at each receiving station harbour of the turnover of dissimilar cargo ship, the information such as inclement weather, tidal conditions and running time restriction in the daytime with corresponding receiving station harbour and navigation channel are put in the long-term supply of material.
Cargo ship in initial parameter database 21 is two kinds of ships that function is different with transferring ship, and cargo ship is used for carrying out long-term ADP transportation, and transferring ship, for the transhipment of short run between the network-type station of each receiving station, also carries out this differentiation in practice.In the corresponding relation of the long-term Dian Yu receiving station that supplies, the selection of cargo ship can be the same or different, same cargo ship can be carried out different long-term delivery schedule of supplying between Dian Yu receiving station, but cargo ship must come and go along given navigation channel in long-term supply of material point and corresponding receiving station corresponding relation, and this is the same with actual conditions.The ID numbering that every cargo ship and transferring ship are corresponding unique,, also can increase as required by hand by default 30 conventionally.
2. in initial parameter database 21, input You Ge receiving station and contain the liquid user of industrial user, town users and plant gas three class gaseous state users and tank car in interior downstream user information, each user of downstream propose by gas demand form and fluctuating range data, the information such as defeated user's year, month, day, hour demand forecast outside the liquid outward transport of tank car and rock gas.
Initial liquid level and total tank that the DCS1 of ③Ge receiving station gathers each storage tank in our station by internetwork connection mode hold information, and by the data input initial parameter database 21 gathering; In initial parameter database 21, also prestore storage tank dynamic monitoring index, storage tank dynamic monitoring index comprises (as shown in Figure 3):
A, force tank ratio parameter, its span is generally 85%～95% of tankage.
Force tank scale parameter to account for the high limit number percent of storage tank useful volume for showing LNG filling weight in storage tank, when cargo ship arrives the outport of receiving station, if reaching, storage tank force the gross space of tank ratio to deduct the remaining space that existing LNG tank holds, the effective ship that is less than cargo ship holds, do not allow cargo ship to enter interior labuhan and port berth, that is " forcing tank " problem of generation.
B, high warning liquid level parameter, its span is generally 85%～90% of tankage.
High warning liquid level parameter is similar to forces tank ratio parameter, but is not functional parameter, can get and force the identical numerical value of tank ratio, only for storage tank, operates the high liquid level warning of operational process.
C, low warning liquid level parameter, its span is generally 8%～15% of tankage.
Low warning liquid level parameter is for the low liquid level warning of storage tank operation operational process.
D, warning tank hold and to meet downstream demand critical value parameter, and its span is generally 48 hours～and 72 hours.
Warning tank holds and to meet downstream demand critical value parameter=(the corresponding tank of hold-low warning liquid level parameter of the current residual tank of storage tank holds)/current per day hour gas consumption, and this parameter be take hour as unit and carried out continual comparing.Warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter and coordinates with low warning liquid level parameter, and downstream use gas demand priority level is protected for problem and processed.When storage tank residue, stock reaches low warning liquid level parameter, being not enough to again maintain warning tank holds while meeting the duration of downstream demand critical value, if receiving station's harbour, berth, inner harbor do not have cargo ship or transferring ship unloading, receiving station need close down output pump step by step according to downstream user use gas priority, stop outer defeated air feed (hereinafter to be referred as " protect for "), close down order and be: first tank car, secondly plant gas user, last industrial user, only protects for town users gas.
E, request transhipment liquid level parameter, its span is generally 60 hours～and 100 hours.
Request transhipment liquid level parameter=(the corresponding tank of hold-low warning liquid level parameter of storage tank current residual tank holds)/current per day hour gas consumption, this parameter be take hour as unit and is carried out continual comparing.Request transhipment liquid level parameter is used for realizing between dynamic station transports request function.When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request transhipment liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically transhipment request between station.
3) information updating of initial parameter database 21
The present invention can start emulation module 22 by Simulation System Platform 2 as required and carry out automatic simulation deduction, and so-called needs can be 1 year, or longer or shorter time; Before carrying out emulation deduction, need to first carry out the information updating of initial parameter database 21, update content comprises:
1. Simulation System Platform 2 obtains the liquid level information of each storage tank in corresponding receiving station, total tank appearance information and long-term ADP by two receiving station's DCS1 Real-Time Monitorings and carries out information, and initial parameter database 21 is upgraded, wherein, the initial time of long-term ADP can be set as the last cargo ship and complete the time of paying LNG;
2. the inclement weather information in harbour and navigation channel is manually upgraded according to up-to-date weather forecast data;
3. the liquid outward transport of tank car and rock gas outward defeated user year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information can according to the gas contract of purchasing of the historical data report of a nearly term, current signing, the up-to-date proposition of downstream user by gas demand and take hour as the data such as flow rate fluctuation amplitude of unit and manually upgrade.
4) Simulation System Platform starts emulation module 22 and carries out emulation deduction
The emulation deduction program of emulation module 22 comprises the following steps (as shown in Figure 4):
1. emulation module 22 reads in the data message after initial parameter database 21 upgrades, give each element assignment, the long-term ADP of each receiving station in the scanning fixed time (typically referring to following three months, 1 year or the longer time), if the long-term ADP of this receiving station is empty, program is deduced in the emulation that stops this receiving station; If there is long-term ADP, enter next step;
2. emulation module 22, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, is analyzed except long-term ADP, whether has also started transhipment request between dynamic station:
If do not start dynamically transhipment request between station, enter step 3.;
If started transhipment request between dynamic station, entered step 4.;
3. carry out the emulation of long-term ADP pattern and deduce, concrete emulation deduction process comprises:
A, inner at long-term supply of material point, LNG material according to from gas field, natural gas treatment plant, natural gas liquefaction device, storage tank, shipment facility be to the sequential flowing of cargo ship boatload; Synchronous therewith, selected cargo ship clean ship is according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connecting the sequence of operation activity of loading facility onto ship.Wherein, natural gas treatment plant and natural gas liquefaction device can be considered a certain proportion of loss, in entering the operation in outport and berth, inner harbor, can be subject to the impact of the uncertain elements such as inclement weather and tidal conditions, and LNG shipment speed has certain undulatory property.
B, receiving station is inner, LNG material is according to from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, BOG(boil-off gas) treatment facility is to LNG output pump, again from LNG output pump, LNG gasifier, by multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users and plant gas three class gaseous state users, and the sequential flowing of the liquid outward transport from LNG output pump to tank car.In flow process, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, handle accordingly, between facility and storage tank, judge whether " forcing tank " unloading a ship, between storage tank and LNG output pump, judge whether " protect for " and whether " slack tank ", result comprises:
If during cargo ship discharging, storage tank residue tank holds the LNG material that is not enough to store whole ship, produce " forcing tank " phenomenon, in simulation result, can export Yi“ receiving station and force tank detail " form, record the detailed datas such as the ID numbering of receiving station, the ID numbering that the moment, the finish time, cargo ship occur, ship type, can also record and force tank ship number, on average force tank duration and always force tank duration, cargo ship must be waited for until " forcing tank " phenomenon is eliminated can start discharging simultaneously;
If storage tank is " slack tank " (arriving low warning liquid level parameter), emulation is deduced in result and is exported one " the low liquid level early warning of website " form, the ID numbering of the low warning liquid level warning of record generation receiving station, the detailed datas such as the zero hour, the finish time of reporting to the police;
If storage tank arrives " warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter ", need to start different brackets " protect and supply ", emulation is deduced in result and is exported one " segment record during website slack tank " and " website is protected the civilian form of closing down ", records the detailed service datas such as time of fire alarming and slack tank time.LNG output pump must, according to the principle of " speed control is closed down in classification ", be controlled LNG output pump and successively close down with tank car, plant gas user, industrial user until the multi-purpose station pipeline being connected between town users.
Synchronous therewith, cargo ship boatload according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connect the sequence of operation activity of the facility of unloading a ship.Wherein, after entering berth, inner harbor, can judge whether operation simultaneously according to harbour quantity and function: as an only single cargo ship discharging of harbour; As two the cargo ship dischargings simultaneously of two harbours.In entering the operation in outport and berth, inner harbor, can be subject to the uncertain elements such as inclement weather and tidal conditions, and the impact of running time restriction in the daytime.
In the daytime running time restriction refers to that cargo ship boatload can only enter berth, inner harbor within the stipulated time in the daytime from outport.Approach and the time sequencing of alongside operation in, produce boisterous uncertain impact and the rule limits of restriction in the daytime, only within the scope of binding hours in the daytime, allow the cargo ship alongside of approaching.Wherein, there is certain undulatory property in the tank car entrucking speed of receiving station, cargo ship handling ship's speed rate; The output pump of receiving station, the outer transfer device reliability of gasifier exist uncertain.
The downstream user of c, receiving station use gas demand, constantly issue the LNG gasifier of ，You receiving station of receiving station and the supply that LNG output pump mates with the time interval (such as 30 minutes) of setting; If receiving station's deliverability does not reach, according to the LNG supply amount supply of the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or restriction, according to guarding against tank in storage tank dynamic monitoring index, hold the description execution meeting in the demand critical value of downstream therebetween.Wherein, hour can there is certain undulatory property by gas speed in downstream user use gas.
D, carry out the cargo ship of long-term ADP, commute on the double way channel of long-term supply of material Dian Zhi receiving station.When arriving at long-term supply of material point and leaving receiving station, the state of cargo ship is " clean ship "; When leaving long-term supply of material point and arriving at receiving station, the state of cargo ship is " boatload ".
E, output are carried out the emulation of long-term ADP pattern and are deduced result, for the analysis of long-term ADP of later stage.Result is deduced in the emulation obtaining according to the inventive method can there is deviation with default long-term ADP plan, belong to normal condition, emulation is deduced result for correcting the unreasonable part of default long-term ADP plan, but there will not be between dynamic station and transport index in emulation deduction result, and simulated program finishes;
4. carry out long-term ADP and the dynamically emulation deduction of transhipment request interactive mode between station:
When emulation module 22 carries out analogue simulation for the arbitrary receiving station that has transhipment request between dynamic station, need to carry out long-term ADP and the dynamically emulation deduction of transhipment request interactive mode between station, in the long-term ADP pattern of simulation, also to simulate this receiving station according to the real-time gas demand of using of downstream user, transhipment request between the dynamic station of sending based on Tank Capacity, simulation is responded as delivery receiving station and corresponding transferring ship by another receiving station, and according to the condition of delivery receiving station and transportation navigation channel, walkthrough scheduling is transhipment and transferring ship go the to deliver process of receiving station's picking between station dynamically, concrete emulation deduction program comprises:
First carry out the 3. emulation deduction step a～d of long-term ADP pattern of above-mentioned steps; Then carry out following step:
E, start the LNG preferable procedure that dynamically turns round between station, the delivery receiving station at request receiving station between dynamic station is sent in selected conduct, and its step comprises (as shown in Figure 5):
I, for the receiving station that proposes dynamically to transport between station request, calculate in real time three parameters: storage tank residual capacity deducts the required time M in the corresponding downstream of low warning liquid level, next time in default long-term ADP information cargo ship to ETA estimated time of arrival N, and maintained duration L corresponding to storage tank request transhipment liquid level;
Each receiving station of transporting between dynamic station beyond request receiving station whether satisfy condition " M < N and M <=L " is sent in II, judgement; If do not met, can not occur between dynamic station, transport request receiving station dynamically stand between the activity of transhipment; If met, reach between dynamic station, transport request receiving station dynamically stand between the sufficient and necessary condition of transhipment, carry out next step;
III, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station to meet the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
IV, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select to meet in condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, respectively with the to be screened receiving station that respectively delivers to dynamically transporting the haulage time T at request receiving station between station
1, T
2, T
3, with T
n< M is condition, filters out the haulage time and receiving station corresponding to difference thereof that are less than M, wherein; Subscript 1,2,3 ... the numbering of n Wei Ge receiving station.
VI, the delivery receiving station of remaining haulage time and their correspondences thereof after screening relatively, add minimum standard shipping rate for according to LNG delivery price, preferably determines the receiving station that optionally delivers;
If VII above-mentioned steps VI) finished, still have and be no less than Liang Ge receiving station as delivery receiving station, select the delivery receiving station of short correspondence of transportation voyage, now remaining receiving station is unique, and this delivery receiving station is exactly the delivery receiving station determining by preferable procedure, conduct is dynamically transported request receiving station between station.
F, inner through dynamically transporting the definite delivery receiving station of preferable procedure between station, LNG material is the sequential flowing to cargo ship boatload according to the storage tank from delivery receiving station, shipment facility; Synchronous therewith, transferring ship clean ship is loaded the sequence of operation activity of facility onto ship according to the outport, berth, inner harbor, the connection that enter delivery receiving station.In the time sequencing of operation that approaches, produce boisterous uncertain impact, there is certain undulatory property in shipment speed.
Task is dynamically transported in g, execution transferring ship between station is not identical with the parameter setting of the cargo ship of the long-term ADP of execution, transferring ship is according to dynamically transhipment request between station, according to transporting commute on the navigation channel between request receiving station through the definite delivery receiving station of preferable procedure between dynamically standing, go the delivery receiving station picking of selecting; When arrival is dynamically transported request receiving station and left delivery receiving station between station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; Leaving when transporting request receiving station between dynamic station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.
H, in the process that emulation is deduced, according to the demand of long-term ADP emulated execution situation and downstream user use gas, emulation module 22, according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, sends transhipment between dynamic station and asks.The dynamically realization of transhipment request and satisfied between station, need certain process and time, because system is being sent the request of once dynamically transporting between station until in its satisfied process, also can constantly produce transhipment request between other dynamic station, therefore can set emulation module 22 only after once dynamically transhipment request is met between station, the emulation that just can start a new round according to latest development is deduced, during for any response that begs off from doing of transhipment between other dynamic station.
Carry out automatic simulation while deducing starting each time emulation module 22, the accuracy of deducing in order to improve emulation, can set and repeat to deduce repeatedly, such as 50 times, or more or number of times still less, provides the average result of homogenization after repeatedly calculating.
In above-mentioned steps 3., in step emulation deduction process 4., the preferably even probability distribution function simulation of the present invention tank car entrucking speed, cargo ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, the inclement weather impact of rectangle probability distribution function simulation harbour, the reliability of normal state probability distribution function simulation LNG output pump and the outer transfer device of LNG gasifier, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship and transferring ship are incured loss through delay and tank car filling time of arrival to ETA estimated time of arrival, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship, interval time of arrival of transferring ship and tank car, Poisson probability distribution function simulate ship, transferring ship and the tank car arriving amt at the appointed time, even probability distribution function simulation downstream user use gas hour with gas rate fluctuation, also adopt the queue discipline of wait system, First Come First Served simultaneously.The using method of above-mentioned various functions is all disclosed, and the present invention is introduced in the deduction process of the various simulation models of the present invention.In above steps, also can adopt in addition other method outside above-mentioned specified function method to simulate deduction, not repeat them here.
5) index and report display module 23 show Output simulation deduction result
After emulation is deduced and is finished, emulation is deduced result and is shown by index and report display module 23, emulation is deduced result and is comprised: cargo ship and transferring ship information, corresponding relation between each long-term supply of material point and corresponding receiving station, send and between dynamic station, transport request receiving station and corresponding relation through the definite delivery receiving station of preferable procedure, high-low liquid level of storage tank and time-space attribute statistics and the expense statistical report form of forcing tank-slack tank to report to the police, and (following three months to the 1 year fixed time, or the longer time, depend on given simulation time length) in dynamic station between the complete delivery of cargo of transporting, arrival and sail plan, dynamically transhipment batch between station, time window distributions etc. are dynamically transported index between station, and quantity and the time match relation of transhipment between the long-term supply of material and dynamic station.
6) GMS terminal 3 generates the dynamically operation plan of transhipment between station of LNG
Simulation System Platform 2 is deduced result and corresponding initial parameter database 21 information thereof by emulation, deposit analytical database 24 in, and quantity and the time window of demand will dynamically be transported between station in the fixed time, by network, be uploaded to the GMS terminal 3 of receiving station, GMS terminal 3 generates the operation plan of transporting between the dynamic station in this receiving station accordingly.Between this dynamic station of deducing prediction through emulation, transport operation plan together with original long-term ADP, jointly form reliable, complete ADP information, thus can meet well this receiving station downstream use gas demand.
In above-described embodiment, can between step 5) and step 6), increase the step that result is deduced in a checking emulation, if select this step, adopt following methods:
Step 5) emulation is deduced and between the dynamic station in result, to be transported time window and distribute to change into and between station, transport ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database 21, then carry out being verified as the emulation of object and deduce;
If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6);
Otherwise return to step 2), the information of adjusting initial parameter database 21 (is mainly to check whether to have Introduced cases mistake or carry out some about functional modification, such as the transhipment ship appearance of transferring ship etc. between dynamic station) after, the emulation deduction that emulation module 22 carries out a new round started.
In above-mentioned analytical database 24, comprise each emulation is deduced to result particularly the initial parameter list after confirming and corresponding long-term supply of material point, the dynamically receiving station of transhipment request, the through transport alliance index of delivery receiving station, cargo ship and transferring ship etc. between station, for artificial, look back and historical data statistical study, form manual analysis experience.
The various embodiments described above are only for illustrating the present invention; the setting of some of them parameter and step can change to some extent; particularly the scope that arranges of some data, the method for employing etc. all can change to some extent; every equivalents of carrying out on the basis of technical solution of the present invention and improvement, all should not get rid of outside protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a prediction dispatching method is dynamically transported by multidrop network XingLNG receiving station between station, and it comprises the following steps:
1) how long, between phase supply of material point, multi-receiver station, many cargo ships and many transferring ships, be provided with dynamically transhipment prediction dispatching system between station of a multidrop network type LNG, it comprises: be separately positioned on DCS in each receiving station, be arranged between the dynamic station in any receiving station and transport Simulation System Platform and be separately positioned on the GMS terminal in each receiving station; In Simulation System Platform, be provided with initial parameter database, be built-in with and combine emulation module, index and report display module and the analytical database that program is deduced in the discrete emulation of Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory; Described Simulation System Platform connects DCS and the GMS terminal of each receiving station by network;
2) in the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform, pre-entered raw data, it comprises the supply of material information of each long-term supply of material point to corresponding receiving station, outer defeated and liquid year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information of transporting outward user of tank car of rock gas in each receiving station downstream, in the corresponding receiving station gathering by each DCS, the initial liquid level of each storage tank and total tank hold information, and storage tank dynamic monitoring index;
3) Simulation System Platform upgrades the information in initial parameter database, it comprise by each DCS real-time collecting to each receiving station in real-time level information and total tank of each storage tank hold information, the up-to-date weather forecast of the inclement weather information in harbour and navigation channel, according to the historical data report of a nearly term, the gas contract of purchasing of current signing, the fluctuating range with gas demand and hour flow of the up-to-date proposition of downstream user, the liquid outward transport of tank car of prediction and the outer defeated user's of rock gas year, month, day, hour demand information;
4) Simulation System Platform starts emulation module and carries out emulation deduction, and it comprises the following steps:
1. emulation module reads in the data message after initial parameter database update, the long-term ADP of scanning fixed time Nei Ge receiving station, if which receiving station does not have long-term ADP, program is deduced in the emulation that stops Dui Gai receiving station, if there is long-term ADP, enter next step;
2. emulation module, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, is analyzed except long-term ADP, whether has also started transhipment request between dynamic station: if do not start dynamically transhipment request between station, enter step 3.; Otherwise, enter step 4.;
3. carry out long-term ADP pattern, emulation module carries out emulation deduction according to default long-term ADP, and output is carried out the emulation of long-term ADP situation and deduced result, and simulated program finishes;
4. carry out long-term ADP and dynamically between station, transport request interactive mode, be that emulation module is in the long-term ADP of simulation, simulate this receiving station according to the real-time gas demand of using of downstream user, transhipment request between the dynamic station of sending based on Tank Capacity, simulation dynamically between station transhipment request by dynamically turn round between station through LNG preferable procedure definite delivery receiving station and transferring ship, responded, walkthrough scheduling is transhipment and transferring ship go the to deliver process of receiving station's picking between station dynamically;
5), after emulation is deduced and finished, in index and report display module, show the emulation deduction result of transhipment request interactive mode between the output long-term ADP of execution and dynamic station;
6) Simulation System Platform is deduced result and corresponding initial parameter database information thereof by emulation, deposit analytical database in, and quantity and the time window of demand will dynamically be transported between station in the fixed time, by network, be uploaded to GMS terminal, GMS terminal generates the operation plan of transporting between the dynamic station of LNG of this receiving station accordingly.
2. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as claimed in claim 1, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: between step 5) and step 6), increase the step that result is deduced in a checking emulation, concrete operation method is:
Step 5) emulation is deduced and between the dynamic station in result, to be transported time window and distribute to change between station and transport ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as object emulation and deduce; If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) emulation to deduce result correct, be stored in analytical database, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust the emulation deduction that initial parameter database information carries out a new round.
3. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as claimed in claim 1, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: the storage tank dynamic monitoring index described step 2) comprises:
A, to force tank ratio parameter, its span be tankage 85%～95%;
B, high warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 85%～90%;
C, low warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 8%～15%;
D, warning tank appearance meet downstream demand critical value parameter, and its time span is 48 hours～72 hours; Warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter and coordinates with low warning liquid level parameter, and downstream use gas demand priority level is protected for problem and processed;
E, request transhipment liquid level parameter, its time span is 60 hours～100 hours, when storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request transhipment liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically transhipment request between station.
4. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as claimed in claim 2, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: the storage tank dynamic monitoring index described step 2) comprises:
A, to force tank ratio parameter, its span be tankage 85%～95%;
B, high warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 85%～90%;
C, low warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 8%～15%;
D, warning tank appearance meet downstream demand critical value parameter, and its time span is 48 hours～72 hours; Warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter and coordinates with low warning liquid level parameter, and downstream use gas demand priority level is protected for problem and processed;
E, request transhipment liquid level parameter, its time span is 60 hours～100 hours, when storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request transhipment liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically transhipment request between station.
5. the dynamic transhipment prediction dispatching method between station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as claimed in claim 1 or 2 or 3 or 4, is characterized in that: the step of described step 4) 3. in, carry out long-term ADP mode simulation deduction process and comprise:
A, inner at long-term supply of material point, LNG material according to from gas field, natural gas treatment plant, natural gas liquefaction device, storage tank, shipment facility be to the sequential flowing of cargo ship boatload; Synchronous therewith, selected cargo ship clean ship is according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connecting the sequence of operation activity of loading facility onto ship;
B, receiving station is inner, LNG material is according to from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, BOG treatment facility to LNG output pump, again from LNG output pump, LNG gasifier, multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, city gas and plant gas three class gaseous state users, and the sequential flowing of the liquid outward transport from LNG output pump to tank car, and handle accordingly according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, between facility and storage tank, judge whether " forcing tank " unloading a ship, between storage tank and LNG output pump, judge whether " protect for " and whether " slack tank "; Synchronous therewith, cargo ship is movable successively according to the order of the outport of receiving station, berth, inner harbor, the facility of unloading a ship,
The downstream user of c, receiving station use gas demand, constantly issue receiving station, the supply that the LNG gasifier of receiving station and LNG output pump mate with the time interval of setting; If receiving station's deliverability does not reach therebetween, according to the LNG supply amount supply of the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or restriction;
D, carry out the cargo ship of long-term ADP, commute on the double way channel of long-term supply of material Dian Zhi receiving station.When arriving at long-term supply of material point and leaving receiving station, the state of cargo ship is " clean ship "; When leaving long-term supply of material point and arriving at receiving station, the state of cargo ship is " boatload ";
E, output are carried out the emulation of long-term ADP pattern and are deduced result, and simulated program finishes.
6. the dynamic transhipment prediction dispatching method between station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as claimed in claim 1 or 2 or 3 or 4, it is characterized in that: the step of described step 4) 4. in, carry out long-term ADP and dynamically between station the emulation deduction process of transhipment request interactive mode comprise:
First perform step 4) step 3. the emulation of long-term ADP pattern deduce step a～d, then carry out following step:
E, start the preferable procedure that dynamically turns round between station, determine as sending the delivery receiving station of transporting request receiving station between dynamic station;
F, inner through dynamically transporting the definite delivery receiving station of preferable procedure between station, LNG material is the sequential flowing to transferring ship boatload according to the storage tank of delivery receiving station, shipment facility; Synchronous therewith, transferring ship clean ship is loaded the sequence of operation activity of facility onto ship according to the outport, berth, inner harbor, the connection that enter delivery receiving station;
Transferring ship commute on the navigation channel between request receiving station between delivery receiving station and dynamic station of task is dynamically transported in g, execution between station; When arriving at delivery receiving station and leaving between dynamic station request receiving station, the state of transferring ship is " clean ship "; When leaving delivery receiving station and arriving between dynamic station request receiving station, the state of transferring ship is " boatload ";
H, in carrying out the process of emulation deduction, according to the actual demand of long-term ADP emulated execution situation and downstream user use gas, emulation module is according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, sends transhipment request between dynamic station.
7. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as claimed in claim 6, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: in described step e), the preferable procedure that turns round between dynamically standing comprises following content:
Each receiving station of transporting between dynamic station beyond request receiving station whether satisfy condition " M < N and M <=L " is sent in II, judgement; If do not met, can not occur between dynamic station, transport request receiving station dynamically stand between the activity of transhipment; If met, reach between dynamic station, transport request receiving station dynamically stand between the sufficient and necessary condition of transhipment, carry out next step;
III, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station to meet the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
IV, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select to meet in condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, respectively with the to be screened receiving station that respectively delivers to dynamically transporting the haulage time T at request receiving station between station
1, T
2, T
3, with T
n< M is condition, filters out the haulage time and receiving station corresponding to difference thereof that are less than M, wherein; Subscript 1,2,3 ... the numbering of n Wei Ge receiving station.
VI, the delivery receiving station of remaining haulage time and their correspondences thereof after screening relatively, add minimum standard shipping rate for according to LNG delivery price, preferably determines the receiving station that optionally delivers;
If VII above-mentioned steps VI) finished, still have and be no less than Liang Ge receiving station as delivery receiving station, select the delivery receiving station of short correspondence of transportation voyage, now remaining receiving station is unique, and this delivery receiving station is exactly the delivery receiving station determining by preferable procedure, conduct is dynamically transported request receiving station between station.
8. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as described in claim 5 or 6 or 7, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: the step of described step 4) is 3. or in step step b 4., the result handling accordingly according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index comprises:
If when cargo ship or transferring ship discharging, storage tank residue tank holds the LNG material that is not enough to store whole ship, produce " forcing tank " phenomenon, in emulation deduction result, export Yi“ receiving station and force tank detail " form, record the ID of receiving station, the moment, the finish time, cargo ship ID, ship type data occur, record is forced tank ship number, is on average forced tank duration and always force tank duration simultaneously, and cargo ship or cargo ship must be waited for until " forcing tank " phenomenon is eliminated can start discharging;
If storage tank has arrived low warning liquid level parameter, in simulation result, export one " the low liquid level early warning of website " list, there is the ID of receiving station of low warning liquid level warning, the zero hour of reporting to the police, finish time detailed data in record;
If storage tank arrives " warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter ", start different brackets " protect and supply ", in simulation result, export one " segment record during website slack tank " and " website is protected the civilian form of closing down ", record comprises that time of fire alarming and the operational factor of slack tank time record form; LNG output pump must, according to " speed control is closed down in classification ", be controlled LNG output pump and successively close down with tank car, plant gas user, industrial user until the multi-purpose station pipeline that town users is connected.
9. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as described in claim 5 or 6 or 7, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: the step of described step 4) is 3. or in step step c 4., LNG supply amount supply according to the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or restriction refers to: when storage tank residue, stock reaches low warning liquid level parameter, being not enough to again maintain warning tank holds while meeting the duration of downstream demand critical value, if receiving station's harbour, berth, inner harbor does not have cargo ship and transferring ship unloading, receiving station need close down output pump step by step according to downstream user use gas priority, stop outer defeated air feed, closing down order is: first tank car, next plant gas user, last industrial user, only protect for town users gas.
10. between the dynamic station of a kind of multidrop network XingLNG receiving station as described in claim 5 or 6 or 7, dispatching method is predicted in transhipment, it is characterized in that: the step of described step 4) is 3. or in step step c 4., LNG supply amount supply according to the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or restriction refers to: when storage tank residue, stock reaches low warning liquid level parameter, being not enough to again maintain warning tank holds while meeting the duration of downstream demand critical value, if receiving station's harbour, berth, inner harbor does not have cargo ship and transferring ship unloading, receiving station need close down output pump step by step according to downstream user use gas priority, stop outer defeated air feed, closing down order is: first tank car, next plant gas user, last industrial user, only protect for town users gas.
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Address after: 100010 Chaoyangmen North Street, Dongcheng District, Dongcheng District, Beijing Co-patentee after: CNOOC Gas & Power Group Patentee after: China Offshore Oil Group Co., Ltd. Address before: 100010 Chaoyangmen North Street, Dongcheng District, Dongcheng District, Beijing Co-patentee before: CNOOC Gas & Power Group Patentee before: China National Offshore Oil Corporation |
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