CN103632234B - A kind of network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a kind of network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, it comprises the following steps：1）A network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting is set to dispatch system, including total tune center, Simulation System Platform and trade management platform；Total DCS for adjusting center to connect each receiving station and terminal, trade management platform connect the GMS of each receiving station and terminal；Simulation System Platform includes initial parameter database, emulation module, index and report display module and analytical database；2）Various initial data have been pre-entered in the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform；3）Simulation System Platform collects the data message in renewal initial parameter database by the DNS of each receiving station and terminal；4）Simulation System Platform starts emulation module and carries out emulation deduction；5）Index and report display module display output emulation deduction result；6）Simulation System Platform is transferred to trade management platform by deduction result is emulated；The GMS terminals of each receiving station and terminal are sent to by trade management platform, to generate the operation plan of our station.

Description

A kind of network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of LNG（Liquefied natural gas）Industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, exists especially with regard to one kind More LNG supply a little for a long time（That is LNG liquefaction plants）, more LNG stocks points, more LNG receiving stations, more LNG terminals, more LNG cargo ships Net between team, the default and dynamic stock of more LNG transhipments fleet, default and dynamic are stood under too many levels, more operational modes such as transhipment Network type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method.

Background technology

In LNG industry chain, the basic function of receiving station is the cargo ship come from long-term supply of material point through ocean sea-freight of unloading, Be stored in after LNG materials are unloaded in LNG storage tank, according to downstream gas demand, will after LNG gasification it is outer transport to it is industrial, civilian and The class gaseous state user of plant gas three, while also transport outward sub-fraction LNG by the direct liquid of LNG tank cars.In LNG industry chain Stock point, similar to long-term supply of material point, the relation with receiving station is the relation based on shorter default delivery schedule.LNG industry Terminal in chain is the secondary station of receiving station, is mainly engaged in liquid and distributes and gives tank car user, and terminal is only received from receiving Stand default or dynamical fashion the transhipment source of goods, and can not transport again.Generally speaking, the elementary process of LNG industry chain activity is Handle simultaneously outside the large LNG materials supplied materials, continually changing continuously LNG materials and the discrete LNG materials of small lot of discretization Fortune, LNG stock materials are kept in normal range (NR), and require to keep within the current and future time of more than at least three months Time-space registration.

Many problems in LNG industry chain be present needs to solve：Such as due to the downstream originals such as controlled atmosphere peak and seasonal fluctuation Cause, the ADP to be supplied for a long time a little except by batch performing LNG（Annual delivery schedule）Outside, receiving station also has and stock is moved State demand；Enter between Mobile state station to transport by transferring ship between receiving station, between terminal and receiving station, combined optimization protect for The demand in gas market；How the transport power of transferring ship is farthest utilized, it is ensured that the storage tank stock of receiving station and terminal is reasonable Use, reduce the demand of transport and storage charges；And in order to solve under LNG industry chain general layout using multi-receiver station, more in Turn station joint debugging, alliance, combined optimization, ensure downstream gas market and caused multi-receiver station, more terminals are entered by transferring ship The demand that row network-type dynamic is transported between standing.

And technological means at this stage is the DCS by single receiving station or terminal（Scattered control system）Monitoring originally connects The tank for receiving each storage tank in station or terminal holds ADP of horizontal, the long-term supply of material point of analysis to receiving station（Referred to as long-term ADP）, connect Transhipment ADP and downstream gas anticipated demand matching relationship of the station to terminal are received, and using this receiving station as foothold, manual analysis From stock, the quantity and time window transported between being stood between being stood between receiving station between transhipment, receiving station and terminal, in analysis result Reach the GMS of our station（Gas management system）Terminal forms operation plan.Existing method is leading, critical data using subjective experience Analysis and processing are more primary, can not adapt to production requirement and dynamically adjust in time, and the foresight of plan is poor, disturb receiving station or The risk of terminal normal operation is very high.And under LNG industry chain general layout, fixed waiting plan shows with what dynamic need triggered Goods, stand between the overall network system such as transhipment, transferring ship management management and control, can not all rely on manual analysis to complete.In addition, Under the influence of many natural uncertain factors simultaneously, it tends to be difficult to estimate rational time window, it is more difficult to effectively plan as a whole The cyberrelationship of multi-receiver station, more terminals, so as to which " forcing tank " occurs for the storage tank for triggering some to stand（It is that LNG storages are higher to force tank, It is filling to be difficult to LNG）, and " slack tank " occurs for the storage tank at another station, cargo ship occurs for harbour or transferring ship is lined up, Wu Fashi The problems such as answering the production run requirement under complex environment, not only make the reduction of assets utilization degree, and can cause to be difficult to bear Supply security risk.

The content of the invention

In view of the above-mentioned problems, it is an object of the invention to provide the suitable more long-term supply of material points of one kind, more stocks point, more receptions Stand, more terminals, transport more transported between fleet, the default and dynamic stock of more transhipment fleet, the default station with dynamic etc. too many levels, Network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method under more operational modes.

To achieve the above object, the present invention takes following technical scheme：A kind of network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting scheduling Method, it comprises the following steps：1）A network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting is set to dispatch system, it includes a total tune center With a trade management platform, a Simulation System Platform connecting the two；It is described it is total adjust centrally through each receiving station of network connection and The DCS of terminal, the trade management platform pass through each receiving station of network connection and the GMS of terminal；The analogue system is put down Platform includes initial parameter database, is built-in with the discrete emulation deduction program for combining Monte carlo algorithm and operational research queueing theory Emulation module, index and report display module and analytical database；2）In the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform Various initial data are pre-entered, it includes supply of material information of each long-term supply of material point to correspondingly received station, and each receiving station is to phase Supply of material information, receiving station and the terminal of terminal are answered to defeated outside the natural gas of downstream user, tank car liquid outward transport and user Year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information, by the initial liquid level of each storage tank in each DCS each receiving stations gathered and terminal and Total tank holds information, and storage tank dynamic monitor control index；3）Simulation System Platform is collected more by the DNS of each receiving station and terminal Data message in the new initial parameter database, it includes the real-time level of each storage tank arrived by DCS real-time collectings Information and total tank hold information, the newest weather forecast of the bad weather information in harbour and navigation channel, outside natural gas outside defeated, tank car liquid Gas is used in fortune and year, month, day, the hour demand forecasting information of user, the purchase gas contract currently signed, the newest proposition of downstream user The fluctuating range of demand and hour flow；4）Simulation System Platform starts emulation module and carries out emulation deduction, and it includes following step Suddenly：1. emulation module reads in the data message after initial parameter database update, the long-term of specified time Nei Ge receiving station is scanned ADP, if which receiving station does not have long-term ADP, terminate the emulation to the receiving station and deduce program；Otherwise enter next Step；2. emulation module judges that taking which kind of emulation deduction pattern to carry out corresponding emulation deduces：A, if receiving station only have selected The ADP of long-term supply of material point, then according to " the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station ", it is determined that long-term supply of material point and corresponding long-term supply of material transport Ship, emulation deduction is carried out according to long-term supply of material point, long-term supply of material cargo ship and the relation of receiving station；B, if receiving station also selects Stock is supplied, then determines whether it is default stock ADP, or dynamic stock：If default stock ADP, then according to " connecing Receive the default stock ADP patterns in station ", it is determined that default stock point information and corresponding cargo ship, according to default stock point, cargo ship and The relation of receiving station carries out emulation deduction；If dynamic stock, then according to " receiving station's dynamic spot mode ", according to uncertain Dynamic stock point, cargo ship and the relation of receiving station in source carry out emulation deduction；C, if receiving station turns between also selecting station Mlc mode, then determine whether it is that ADP is transported between default station, or dynamic stand between transport：If transporting ADP between default station, Then according to " ADP patterns are transported between default station by receiving station ", it is determined that delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, according to receiving station, are transported The relation of ship and delivery receiving station carries out emulation deduction；If dynamic is transported between standing, then according to " receiving station's dynamic is transported between standing Pattern ", start LNG dynamic transhipment preferable procedures first, it is determined that delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, are then pressed Emulation deduction is carried out according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and the receiving station that delivers；D, for terminal, if receiving station and terminal ADP is sky, then does not run the related emulation of terminal and deduce, if terminal is transported between have selected the station with receiving station, enter one Step judgement is that ADP is transported between the default station of terminal, or terminal dynamic stand between transport：If transported between the default station of terminal ADP, then according to " terminal transports ADP patterns between default station ", it is determined that delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, according to receiving station, The relation of transferring ship and delivery receiving station carries out emulation deduction；If terminal dynamic is transported between standing, then according to " terminal moves Transportation mode between state station ", start LNG dynamic transhipment preferable procedures first, it is determined that delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship Information, then carry out emulation deduction according to the relation of terminal, transferring ship and the receiving station that delivers；5）After emulation deduction terminates, imitate The emulation deduction result display output for the various patterns that true system platform obtains emulation module is in index and report display module In；6）Simulation System Platform will emulate deduction result deposit analytical database, and be transferred to trade management platform；By trade management The supply demand and operation plan of network structure LNG industry chain in platform generation is following three months to one-year age, and lead to The GMS terminals that network is sent to each receiving station and terminal are crossed, the scheduling meter of our station is generated by the GMS of each receiving station and terminal Draw.

In step 5）With step 6）Between increase by a pair of dynamic stocks and dynamic stand between the emulation deduction results transported carry out The step of checking, if selecting this step, using one of following three kinds of methods：1. the emulation for dynamic spot mode is deduced As a result, by step 5）Dynamic stock time window in the emulation deduction result of dynamic spot mode, distribution shifts are into from stock ADP, original long-term ADP is inserted according to Annual distribution, and update the information of initial parameter database accordingly, then carried out to test Emulation for the purpose of card is deduced；If no longer producing dynamic stock index in emulation deduction result, step 5 can confirm that）'s The emulation deduction result of dynamic spot mode is correct, into step 6）；Otherwise return to step 2）, adjustment initial parameter database letter After breath, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round；2. the emulation deduction result of transportation mode between being stood for dynamic, will Step 5）Transhipment time window between dynamic station between dynamic is stood in transportation mode emulation deduction result, distribution shifts are transported between station ADP, original long-term ADP is inserted according to Annual distribution, and update the information of initial parameter database accordingly, then carried out to test Emulation for the purpose of card is deduced；If no longer being produced in emulation deduction result between dynamic is stood and transporting index, illustrate step 5）'s The emulation deduction result of transportation mode is correct between dynamic is stood, into step 6）；Otherwise return to step 2）, adjust initial parameter data After the information of storehouse, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round；3. have again for existing dynamic spot mode between dynamically standing The emulation deduction result of transportation mode, by step 5）Dynamic stock time window in the emulation deduction result of dynamic spot mode Transhipment time window between dynamic station between being stood dynamic in transportation mode emulation deduction result, whole distribution shifts are into receiving station ADP, original long-term ADP is inserted according to Annual distribution, and update the information of initial parameter database accordingly, then carried out to test Emulation for the purpose of card is deduced；Dynamic stock index is both no longer produced in deduction result if emulated, dynamic is also no longer produced and stands Between transport index, then illustrate step 5）Emulation deduction result it is correct, into step 6）；Otherwise return to step 2）, adjustment is initially After parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round.

For the present invention due to taking above technical scheme, it has advantages below：1st, the present invention due to more long-term supply of material points, In the network structure that more stock points, multi-receiver station, more terminals, more transport fleets and more transhipment fleets form, there is provided a LNG System is dispatched in industry integrated forecasting, and is provided with total tune center, Simulation System Platform and trade management platform within the system, and Initial parameter database, emulation module, index and report display module and analytical database are provided with Simulation System Platform, Therefore the present invention can the dynamic stock demand of receiving station, reception according to caused by the reasons such as downstream controlled atmosphere peak and seasonal fluctuation Stand transporting demand the dynamic station of receiving station, terminal the dynamic station of receiving station transporting demand, by emulation module simultaneously Row and according to condition according to each receiving station of sequential simulation perform long-term ADP and scheduling dynamic stock, dynamic stand between transhipment etc. interact Complex process, generate long-term ADP and dynamic stock, dynamic are transported between standing in specified time quantity and time match relation. 2nd, the present invention is with Monte carlo algorithm simulation random process and operational research Queueing Theory Method, the LNG things of analogue simulation discretization The LNG materials of material and continuous stream, simulation LNG from long-term supply of material point, stock point, cargo ship transport by sea, receiving station, terminal, Each link, link materials inside flowing flow and the mutual logic for the LNG industry chain that the coastal transport of transferring ship is formed are closed System and allocation and transportation relation, to the main fluctuation in network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting scheduling process, it is probabilistic be distributed into Row Mathematical treatment, the quantity and time match relation of demand are not only able to predict and generate, and can be according to setting time length Interior automatic deduction result, comprehensively provide long-term supply of material point, stock point, cargo ship, receiving station, terminal, transferring ship, stock Transport, stand between transhipment, storage tank two position and the time-space attribute etc. for forcing ullage tank to alarm, there is provided unitize qualitative results really, Make emulation deduction result more accurate, fundamentally solve and be difficult with conventional meanses under LNG industry chain network structure and enter The comprehensive allocation and transportation of row, the practical challenges of alliance, there is provided LNG supply securities, peak regulation guarantee and industrial chain are run efficient technology and asked Topic.3rd, the present invention set the integrated forecasting of network-type LNG industry chain scheduling system, except can predict and generate dynamic stock, The distribution of transhipment time window is outer between dynamic is stood, can also be careful, imperfectly provide according to the deduction result in preset time length Cargo ship, supply for a long time point, dynamic stock point, dynamic transport delivery receiving station, storage tank height-low liquid level and force tank-slack tank between standing The time-space attribute statistics and expense statistical report form of alarm, automate data handling procedure, and the prediction for improving network-type LNG is adjusted Speed, accuracy and practical operability are spent, strong foundation is provided for the integrated forecasting scheduling of scientific management LNG industry chain, Further to improve higher possibility is provided with extension system peripheral function.4th, the present invention is due in network-type LNG industry chain In integrated forecasting scheduling system, by always adjusting central site network to connect original DCS gathered datas in each receiving station and terminal, lead to Cross trade management platform network and connect original GMS terminals transmission deduction result in each receiving station and terminal, therefore effectively The automaticity of whole system is improved, allows the present invention according to being actually needed, updates the dynamic stock in specified time Transhipment request and corresponding waiting operation plan between request, dynamic are stood, make that the management of receiving station is more scientific, modernization. 5th, the present invention has taken into full account the various situations in network-type LNG industry chain, summarizes emulation corresponding with various situations and deduces Pattern, and the interaction of various patterns is obtained into emulation deduction result together, these emulation deduction results provide operation plan and original The long-term ADP having together, together constitutes accurately and reliably and complete ADP information, can preferably meet downstream gas demand, This is that prior art is not accomplished.The present invention is applied to more long-term supply of material points, more stocks point, multi-receiver station, more terminals, more fortune Too many levels, the network of more operational modes such as transhipment between defeated fleet, the default and dynamic stock of more transhipment fleets, default and dynamic are stood During type LNG forecast dispatching.

Brief description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is LNG industry chain comprehensive key element relation schematic diagram of the present invention

Fig. 2 is LNG industry chain integrated forecasting scheduling system of the present invention

Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of storage tank dynamic monitor control index relation of the present invention

Fig. 4 is integrated forecasting scheduling flow schematic diagram of the present invention

Fig. 5 is dynamic spot mode schematic flow sheet of the present invention

Fig. 6 is dynamic transportation mode schematic flow sheet of the present invention

Fig. 7 is dynamic transhipment preferable procedure schematic diagram of the invention

Embodiment

The present invention is described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.

A kind of network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method of the present invention comprises the following steps（As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2）：

1）A network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting is set to dispatch system

Formed by point of supplying for a long time more, more stocks point, multi-receiver station, more terminals, transport fleet, more transhipment fleets more Network system in set a LNG industry chain integrated forecasting to dispatch system, it includes one and total adjusts center 1, a LNG industry chain to integrate The trade management platform 3 of Simulation System Platform 2 and one.It is total to adjust center 1, Simulation System Platform 2 and trade management platform 3 be independent A place is arranged on, can also be arranged in any one receiving station.Wherein：

It is total to adjust center 1 by conventional arrangement of DCS in each receiving station of network connection and terminal and real-time by each DCS The liquid level information of each storage tank in the correspondingly received station of acquisition monitoring and terminal, defeated information and tank car outward transport information outside gaseous state, The use gas demand form and fluctuation data of each receiving station and terminal are obtained simultaneously, and deliver this to Simulation System Platform 2.

Simulation System Platform 2 includes initial parameter database 21, emulation module 22, index and report display module 23 and divided Analyse database 24.Emulation module 22, which is built-in with, to be combined the discrete emulation of Monte carlo algorithm and operational research queueing theory and deduced Journey.Wherein Monte carlo algorithm be based on probability and statistical methods, solve the problem of with appropriate probabilistic model It is associated, producing substantial amounts of random number or pseudo random number with computer carries out statistical simulation or sampling, to obtain approximate solution；Cover special Carlow derivation algorithm is the method that random number is generated in calculation procedure, is open and wide variety of technology.Operational research queueing theory It is by service object's arrival and the NULL of service time, drawing including stand-by period, queue length, busy period length etc. The statistical law of quantitative index；Operational research queueing theory is the setting of queue discipline and probability distribution function, and this function is in itself Open and wide variety of technology.Discrete emulation mode is combine operational research queueing theory and Monte Carlo derivation algorithm specific Computer program, by the computer program, each element is carried out it is careful, be fully described by, the operation rule to each element Then using simultaneously and concurrently and according to condition both of which in chronological order, fully according to objective practical operation handle discrete flow and The element mobility of continuous stream, discrete emulation mode, i.e., according to continuous, evenly spaced time series, according to the workflow of reality Journey and activity command, sequentially change the working condition of above-mentioned element and entity at the appointed time, and belong to open and wide The technology of general application.Concrete condition, different description objects and the mutual correspondence of the invention for solving problem as needed Relation, above-mentioned various methods are introduced into the present invention, and it is specifically applied during the emulation of various models is deduced.

Trade management platform 3 passes through conventional arrangement of GMS terminals in each receiving station of network connection and terminal, trade management Platform 3 can issue the plan information that Simulation System Platform 2 obtains to the GMS terminals of each receiving station and terminal, such as near Plan in two months carrys out ship, purchases stock, actual outer defeated and storage tank stock waiting relation etc., for each receiving station with Turn the production decision and concrete operations at station.

2）Raw information is inputted in the initial parameter database 21 of Simulation System Platform 2

1. in the operation interface of Simulation System Platform 2, each long-term supply of material is inputted into initial parameter database 21 in advance Point is compiled to the ID of the supply of material information of the long-term ADP information, each receiving station of each receiving station to corresponding terminal, each long-term supply of material point Number, the ID of each cargo ship numbering, the ID numberings of each receiving station, the ID numberings of each terminal, the ID numberings of each transferring ship and right The ID numberings in each navigation channel answered etc., it is for selection.

2. input is covered industrial user, town users and the class gaseous state of plant gas three and used in initial parameter database 21 What the downstream user data message including family, and tank car liquid user, each receiving station and each user in terminal downstream proposed With gas demand form and fluctuating range data, the outward transport of tank car liquid and year, month, day, the hour demand of defeated user outside natural gas are pre- The information such as survey.

3. center 1 is always adjusted to pass through each receiving station of network connection and the DCS of terminal, the initial liquid level of each storage tank of collection With the flow information of defeated and LNG tank cars liquid outward transport outside total tank appearance information, gaseous state, and each receiving station and terminal downstream user Gas demand data and fluctuating range data are used in proposition, and are inputted initial parameter database 21, initial parameter database 21 In be also preset with storage tank dynamic monitor control index（As shown in Figure 3）：

a）Tank ratio parameter is forced, span is generally the 85%~95% of tank capacity.

Force tank scale parameter to be used to show in storage tank that LNG filling weights to account for the high of the effective water capacity of storage tank and limit percentage, work as fortune During the outport of defeated ship or transferring ship arrival receiving station or terminal, the gross space of tank ratio is forced to subtract storage tank appearance if storage tank reaches The remaining tank of amount holds space, holds less than effective ship of cargo ship or transferring ship, does not then allow cargo ship or transferring ship to enter inner harbor anchor Ground and port berth, that is, produce " forcing tank " problem.

b）Height warning level parameter, span are generally the 85%~90% of tank capacity.

Height warning level parameter, which is similar to, forces tank ratio parameter, but is not functional parameter, can take with forcing tank ratio phase Same data, the fluid level being only used in early warning storage tank operation running.

c）Low warning level parameter, span are generally the 8%~15% of tank capacity.

The low liquid level warning that low warning level parameter is used in storage tank operation running.

d）Warning tank, which holds, meets the critical value parameter of downstream demand, and its time span is generally 48 hours~72 hours.

Warning tank hold meet the critical value parameter of downstream demand=（The current residual tank appearance of storage tank-low warning level parameter pair Tank is answered to hold)/currently per day hour gas consumption, the parameter carry out continual comparing in units of hour.Tank is guarded against to hold Meet that the critical value parameter of downstream demand coordinates with low warning level parameter, downstream is protected at problem with gas demand classes Reason.When storage tank residue stock reaches low warning level parameter, it is not enough to maintain warning tank to hold again to meet downstream demand critical value During duration, if receiving station or terminal harbour, inner harbor berth do not have cargo ship or transferring ship unloading, receiving station need to be under Trip user closes down output pump step by step with gas priority, stops outer defeated supply（Hereinafter referred to as " protect and supply "）, closing down order is：First groove Car, secondly plant gas user, last industrial user, only protects for town users gas.

e）Ask stock liquid level（Maintain duration）Parameter, its time span are generally 72 hours~150 hours.

Request stock level parameter=（Storage tank current residual tank appearance-low warning level parameter corresponds to tank appearance）/ put down when the day before yesterday Equal hour gas consumption, the parameter carry out continual comparing in units of hour.Request stock level parameter is used to realize Dynamic stock request function.When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference with low warning level parameter corresponding tank appearance, according to it is current when When the duration that carving downstream user can be maintained with gas velocity rate is less than request stock level parameter, system sends once dynamic and from stock please Ask.

f）Request transports level parameter between station, and its time span is generally 60 hours~100 hours.

Request transhipment level parameter=（Storage tank current residual tank appearance-low warning level parameter corresponds to tank appearance）/ put down when the day before yesterday Equal hour gas consumption, the parameter carry out continual comparing in units of hour.Request transhipment level parameter is used to realize Dynamic transports request function between standing.When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference with low warning level parameter corresponding tank appearance, according to ought When the duration that preceding moment downstream user can be maintained with gas velocity rate is less than request transhipment level parameter, system sends once dynamic and stood Between transport request.

The number range of above-mentioned various parameters can also be according to practical operating experiences and needing to choose other values.

3）Information updating in initial parameter database 21

The present invention can start emulation module 22 as desired by Simulation System Platform 2 and carry out automatic simulation deduction, institute It can be 1 year to call needs, or longer or shorter time；, it is necessary to first carry out initial parameter database before carrying out emulation deduction 21 information updating, more new content include：

1. center 1 is always adjusted by the DCS in each receiving station and terminal, monitoring the liquid of each obtained storage tank in real time Position information, total tank hold information and long-term ADP execution informations, and are inputted initial parameter database 21 and data message is carried out more Newly, wherein, long-term ADP initial time can be set as the last cargo ship and complete to deliver LNG time；

2. the bad weather information in each harbour and navigation channel updates manually according to newest weather forecast data；

3. the year, month, day of defeated user, hour demand forecasting information, a nearly term outside each tank car liquid outward transport and natural gas Historical data report, currently sign purchase gas contract, the newest proposition of downstream user with gas demand and in units of hour The data such as flowed fluctuation amplitude update manually.

4）Simulation System Platform 2 starts emulation module 22 and carries out emulation deduction

The emulation of emulation module 22, which is deduced, to be comprised the following steps（As shown in figures 4-6）：

1. emulation module 22 reads in the data message after initial parameter database 21 updates, each element assignment is given, is swept Retouch specified time（Typically refer to following three months, 1 year or longer time）The long-term ADP of Nei Ge receiving stations, if the receiving station Long-term ADP is sky, then program is deduced in the emulation for terminating the receiving station；If there is long-term ADP in the receiving station, enter in next step；

2. emulation module 22 is analyzed in addition to long-term ADP, if also start other confessions according to storage tank dynamic monitor control index Goods pattern, and judge that taking which kind of emulation deduction pattern to carry out corresponding emulation deduces：

A, if receiving station only have selected the ADP of long-term supply of material point, according to " the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station ", it is determined that long Phase supply of material point and corresponding long-term supply of material cargo ship, enter according to long-term supply of material point, long-term supply of material cargo ship and the relation of receiving station Row emulation is deduced, and deduction result can provide long-term ADP implementation status and preset long-term ADP deviation；

If B, receiving station also selects that stock is supplied, determine whether it is default stock ADP, or dynamic stock：

If default stock ADP, then according to " receiving station presets stock ADP patterns ", it is determined that default stock point information and Corresponding cargo ship, emulation deduction is carried out according to default stock point, cargo ship and the relation of receiving station, deduction result, which can give, to be occurred The deviation of goods ADP implementation status and default stock ADP；

If dynamic stock, then according to " receiving station's dynamic spot mode ", according to the dynamic stock point in uncertain source, The relation of cargo ship and receiving station carries out emulation deduction, because dynamic stock point is according to receiving station's Downstream Market demand by system Real-time response is carried out, therefore point is uncertain source from stock in dynamic spot mode, corresponding cargo ship is also to determine temporarily.

If C, receiving station transports between also selecting station, determine whether it is to transport ADP between default station, or dynamic is stood Between transport：

If transporting ADP between default station, then according to " ADP patterns are transported between default station by receiving station ", it is determined that delivery receives Stand and transferring ship information, carry out emulation deduction according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and the receiving station that delivers, deduction result can provide Transported between standing between ADP implementation status and default station and transport ADP deviation；

If dynamic is transported between standing, then according to " transportation mode between receiving station's dynamic is stood ", start LNG dynamics first and transport Preferable procedure, it is determined that delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, are then received according to receiving station, transferring ship and delivery The relation stood carries out emulation deduction.

D, for terminal, if receiving station is sky with terminal ADP, the related emulation of terminal is not run and is deduced, such as Fruit terminal is transported between have selected the station with receiving station, then determines whether it is to transport ADP, or transfer between terminal presets station Stand between dynamic is stood and transport：

If transporting ADP between the default station of terminal, then according to " terminal transports ADP patterns between default station ", it is determined that hair Goods receiving station and transferring ship information, emulation deduction, deduction result are carried out according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and the receiving station that delivers Can be to the deviation that ADP is transported between outbound transhipment ADP implementation status and default station；

If terminal dynamic is transported between standing, then according to " transportation mode between terminal dynamic is stood ", start LNG first and move State transports preferable procedure, it is determined that delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to terminal, transferring ship and hair The relation of goods receiving station carries out emulation deduction.

The description of judgement and emulation deduction pattern from above-mentioned LNG industry chain integrated forecasting scheduling relation can be seen that：When When the quantity of receiving station and terminal is more than one, emulation deduction pattern can include seven kinds, and each emulation is pushed away separately below The emulation deduction process for drilling pattern is explained：

First, process is deduced in the emulation of the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station：

A, inside long-term supply of material point, LNG materials are according to from gas field, natural gas treatment plant, natural gas liquefaction device, storage The sequential flowing of tank, shipment facility to long-term supply of material cargo ship boatload；Synchronous with this, long-term cargo ship clean ship of supplying is according to entrance Outport, the order carry out activity in inner harbor berth, connection shipment facility.Wherein, natural gas treatment plant and natural gas liquefaction device A certain proportion of loss can be considered, can be by bad weather and tidal conditions etc. in the operation in outport and inner harbor berth is entered The influence of uncertain factor, LNG shipments speed have certain fluctuation.

B, inside receiving station, LNG materials according to from unloading facility, storage tank, BOG（Boil-off gas）Treatment facility is to outside LNG Defeated pump, then from LNG output pumps, LNG gasification device, pass through multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users and the class gas of plant gas three State user, and the sequential flowing transported outward from LNG output pumps to tank car liquid.In flow process, monitored according to storage tank dynamic Index handles accordingly, i.e., judges whether " forcing tank " between unloading facility and storage tank, judge between storage tank and LNG output pumps Whether " protect supply " and whether " slack tank ", result includes：

If during cargo ship discharging, storage tank residue tank holds the LNG materials for being not enough to store whole ship, " forcing tank " phenomenon is produced, " receiving station the force tank detailed " form that can then export one in simulation result, record the ID numberings of receiving station, occur the moment, at the end of Quarter, the ID numberings of cargo ship, ship type etc. detailed data, while can also record and force tank ship number, averagely force tank duration and always force tank Duration, cargo ship must wait until " forcing tank " phenomenon, which eliminates, can start discharging；

If storage tank is " slack tank "（Reach low warning level parameter）, then one being exported in simulation result, " website is low Liquid level early warning " form, the ID that low warning liquid level warning receiving station occurs for record is numbered, alarm start time, finish time etc. are bright Count evidence accurately, LNG output pumps must close down until the elimination of " slack tank " phenomenon can reopen；

If storage tank has arrived at " warning tank, which holds, meets the critical value parameter of downstream demand ", it is necessary to start different grades of " protect and supply ", then one " segment record during website slack tank " and " website guarantor is civilian to close down form ", record report can be exported in simulation result Alert time and slack tank time etc. detailed service data.LNG output pumps must according to " speed control is closed down in classification ", principle, control LNG output pumps processed are gradually closed down and tank car, plant gas user, industrial user, the outer defeated pipe up to being connected between town users Road.

Synchronous with this, cargo ship boatload is according to the operation order activity for entering outport, inner harbor berth, connection unloading facility. Wherein, judged whether after cargo ship enters inner harbor berth according to harbour quantity and function while operation：If only one harbour Single cargo ship discharging；Two cargo ship dischargings simultaneously if two harbours.In the operation in outport and inner harbor berth is entered, meeting By the uncertain element such as bad weather and tidal conditions, and the influence of daytime operation time restriction.

Daytime operation time restriction refers to that cargo ship boatload can only enter inner harbor berth within the stipulated time in the daytime from outport. Approaching and in the time sequencing of berthing operation, producing the boisterous uncertain rule limitation for influenceing and limiting in the daytime, Only limited in the daytime in time range, it is allowed to transport ship's entry berthing.Wherein, the tank car entrucking speed of receiving station, cargo ship dress Certain fluctuation be present in unloading speed；The outer transfer device reliability of output pump, gasifier of receiving station exists uncertain.

C, the use gas demand of the downstream user of receiving station, at set time intervals（Such as 30 minutes）Constantly issue and connect Station is received, the supply of matching is given by the LNG gasification device and LNG output pumps of receiving station；Therebetween if receiving station's deliverability is not up to Arrive, then supplied according to the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or the LNG supply amounts of restriction, i.e., according to alert in storage tank dynamic monitor control index Guard against tank and hold the description execution met in downstream demand critical value.Wherein, the hour of downstream user gas can have one with gas velocity rate Fixed fluctuation.

D, long-term ADP cargo ship is performed, is come and gone back and forth on double way channel of the long-term supply of material point to receiving station.Arriving at Long-term supply of material point and when leaving receiving station, the long-term state for supplying cargo ship is " clean ship "；Leaving long-term supply of material point and arriving at During receiving station, the long-term state for supplying cargo ship is " boatload ".

2nd, receiving station presets the emulation deduction of stock ADP patterns

The emulation deduction of the emulation deduction process and the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station of stock ADP patterns is preset due to receiving station Process is identical, therefore only needs the information by the information of long-term supply of material point and long-term supply of material cargo ship, replaces with default existing The information of the information of goods point and default stock cargo ship, during then being deduced according to the long-term ADP mode simulations of above-mentioned receiving station Step a~d carry out emulation deduction, you can obtain the emulation deduction result that receiving station presets stock ADP patterns.It is long-term in addition to supply Goods cargo ship and stock cargo ship are identical cargo ships, and parameter setting is also identical.

3rd, process is deduced in the emulation of receiving station's dynamic spot mode：

A, according to long-term ADP, default stock ADP implementation status and downstream user gas actual demand, emulation module 22, according to the tank level information gathered in real time and the comparing result of storage tank dynamic monitor control index, send dynamic stock and ask；It is dynamic Realization and the satisfaction of state stock request are, it is necessary to which certain process and time, due to system, sending once dynamic, request is straight from stock To its satisfaction, it can also constantly produce other dynamic stocks and ask, therefore emulation module 22 can be set and only existed After once the request of dynamic stock is met, the emulation that can just start a new round according to latest development is deduced, during which for other Dynamic stock beg off from doing any response.

B, dynamic stock delivery point is asked according to dynamic stock, only determines delivery amount and the time of delivery of dynamic stock, and Dynamic stock delivery point is undefined position and navigation channel, does not also embody internal process；It is indefinite due to dynamically being put from stock in reality, Corresponding navigation channel attribute is also difficult to set, and because the preparatory period of actual reserved dynamic stock is mostly 2~3 months, therefore, no longer Consider the specific channel problem between dynamic stock point and receiving station.

C, the cargo ship for performing dynamic stock transport task comes and goes back and forth between dynamic stock point and receiving station；Arriving at When stock is put and leaves receiving station, the state of stock cargo ship is " clean ship "；Leave stock put and arrive at receiving station when, stock The state of cargo ship is " boatload ".

4th, process is deduced in the emulation that ADP patterns are transported between the default station of receiving station：

A, the receiving station that receives transported, transferring ship are inputted between default station between the delivery receiving station transported, default station, transports boat ADP information is transported between default station by road, navigation channel weather conditions, receiving station；Other transferring ship is two kinds of work(with long-term supply of material cargo ship The different ship of energy, there is independent parameter setting and statistics.

B, in the delivery receiving station transported between default station, storage tank, shipment facility, code of the LNG materials from delivery receiving station Head is to transferring ship until reaching the sequential flowing of boatload；Synchronous with this, unloaded transferring ship is according to the outer of entrance delivery receiving station Port, the operation order activity in inner harbor berth, harbour, connection shipment facility.

C, the transferring ship transported between default station is performed, in delivery receiving station to the double way channel that receiving station is transported between default station Upper to come and go, when transporting receiving station between reaching default station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload；It is pre- leaving If receiving station is transported between standing and reaches delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.

5th, process is deduced in the emulation of transportation mode between receiving station's dynamic is stood：

A, start dynamic operating preferable procedure, select as the delivery receiving station that receiving station is asked between dynamically standing, and accordingly The information of transferring ship, transport navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions；

B, inside selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship fills according into outport, inner harbor berth, harbour, connection The operation order activity of ship facility, LNG materials are according to from dynamic delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to dynamic stock cargo ship The sequential flowing of boatload, dynamic stand between transhipment request receiving station inside according to from unloading facility, storage tank, output pump, gasifier, The sequential flow that multi-purpose station pipeline is transported outward to industrial user, town users, the three class gaseous state users of plant gas user and tank car liquid It is dynamic.

C, the transferring ship transported between dynamic is stood is performed, transhipment request receiving station is two-way between delivery receiving station stands to dynamic Come and gone on navigation channel, when transporting request receiving station between reaching dynamic station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload； When receiving station is delivered in transhipment request receiving station and arrival between leaving dynamically station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.

D, the actual demand of situation and downstream user gas, each receiving station are emulated according to the ADP of each long-term supply of material point According to the tank level information that gathers in real time and storage tank dynamic monitor control index comparing result, send and transport between the dynamic station of receiving station Request.Dynamic transported between standing request realization and satisfaction, it is necessary to certain process and time, because system is sending once dynamic Transhipment request between standing can also constantly produce between other dynamics are stood until during its satisfaction and transport request, therefore can set Emulation module 22 is determined only after transhipment request is met between once dynamically standing, and just a new round can be started according to latest development Emulate and deduce, during which for transporting any response that begs off from doing between other dynamic stations.

6th, process is deduced in the emulation that ADP patterns are transported between the default station of terminal：

A, the delivery receiving station transported between the terminal transported between the default station of input, default station, transferring ship, transport navigation channel and The weather conditions in navigation channel, terminal transport ADP information between default station；

B, in the delivery receiving station transported between default station, transferring ship clean ship fills according into outport, inner harbor berth, connection The operation order activity of ship facility, LNG materials are according to from delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to transferring ship boatload between default station Sequential flowing, lived between default station inside transhipment station according to the order from unloading facility, storage tank, the outward transport of tank car liquid It is dynamic.

C, the transferring ship transported between default station, the double way channel at delivery receiving station to transhipment station between default station are performed Above come and go, when transhipment station is with delivery receiving station is left between reaching default station, the state of transferring ship is boatload；It is pre- leaving If transhipment station is with delivery receiving station is reached between standing, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.

7th, process is deduced in the emulation of transportation mode between terminal dynamic is stood：

A, start between dynamic is stood and operate preferable procedure, select as the delivery receiving station that terminal is asked between dynamically standing, with And corresponding transferring ship, transport the information of navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions；

B, inside selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship loads facility onto ship according into outport, inner harbor berth, connection Operation order activity, LNG materials are according to transhipment delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to transferring ship boatload between being stood from dynamic Sequential flowing, transported between dynamic is stood inside the terminal of request according to the order transported outward from unloading facility, storage tank, tank car liquid Flowing.

C, the transferring ship transported between dynamic is stood is performed, transhipment request terminal is two-way between delivery receiving station stands to dynamic Come and gone on navigation channel, when transporting request terminal between reaching dynamic station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload； When receiving station is delivered in transhipment request terminal and arrival between leaving dynamically station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.

D, situation and the conditions of demand of downstream gas, and terminal are emulated to the ADP of terminal according to each receiving station According to the tank level information that gathers in real time and storage tank dynamic monitor control index comparing result, send and transport between the dynamic station of terminal Request, dynamic transported between standing request realization and satisfaction, it is necessary to certain process and time, because terminal sends once dynamic Transhipment request between standing can also constantly produce between other dynamics are stood until during its satisfaction and transport request, therefore can set Emulation module 22 is determined only after transhipment request is met between once dynamically standing, and just a new round can be started according to latest development Emulate and deduce, during which for transporting any response that begs off from doing between other dynamic stations.

During the emulation of transportation mode is deduced between transportation mode and terminal dynamic are stood between above-mentioned receiving station's dynamic is stood, carry To dynamic operating preferable procedure comprise the following steps（As shown in Figure 7）：

I, receiving station or terminal for transporting request between proposition dynamic station, three parameters of real-time calculating：Storage tank is remaining Capacity subtracts low warning liquid level and correspond to the required time M in downstream, and cargo ship arrives ETA estimated time of arrival in default long-term ADP information next time What N or terminal preset transferring ship in ADP information arrive ETA estimated time of arrival N, and storage tank request is transported can maintain duration corresponding to liquid level L；

II, judge whether each receiving station that dynamic is transported beyond request receiving station or terminal between standing meets condition " M ＜ N With M ＜=L "；If be unsatisfactory for, transhipment request receiving station or terminal turn entering Mobile state station will not occurring to stand dynamic The activity of fortune；Transported if it is satisfied, then reaching as entering Mobile state station to transhipment request receiving station or terminal dynamic station Sufficient and necessary condition, carry out in next step；

III, the condition that fed using transferring ship are screened to each receiving station in optional delivery receiving station group；Selection delivery Receiving station's condition is that the receiving station meets that storage tank residual capacity subtracts the low difference for guarding against liquid level and is more than transferring ship capacity；

IV, the condition that fed using transferring ship are screened to each receiving station in optional delivery receiving station group；Selection delivery Receiving station's condition is to meet that storage tank residual capacity subtracts the low difference for guarding against liquid level and is more than transferring ship capacity in the receiving station；

V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, transported respectively with each delivery receiving station to be screened between dynamic station Ask the haulage time T of receiving station or terminal₁、T₂、T₃..., T_n＜ M are condition, filter out haulage time less than M and its Delivery receiving station corresponding to respectively, wherein；The n of subscript 1,2,3 ... is the numbering of each receiving station of delivery.

VI, compare remaining haulage time and its delivery receiving station corresponding to them after screening, add according to LNG delivery prices The standard of shipping network minimal, preferably determine optional delivery receiving station；

If VII, above-mentioned steps VI）Terminate, still there are no less than two delivery receiving stations, then selection transport voyage is most short right The delivery receiving station answered, now remaining delivery receiving station is unique that the delivery receiving station is exactly to be determined by preferable procedure , as dynamic stand between transhipment request receiving station or terminal delivery receiving station.

When the above-mentioned emulation module 22 of startup each time carries out automatic simulation deduction, in order to improve the accurate of emulation deduction Property, can set repetition deduce it is multiple, such as 50 times, or more or less number, provide being averaged for homogenization after repeatedly calculating As a result.

During above-mentioned emulation deduction, the present invention perfectly even probability distribution function simulation tank car entrucking speed, transport Ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, rectangle probability distribution function simulation harbour adverse weather conditions, normal state probability distribution function mould Intend the reliability of LNG output pumps and the outer transfer device of LNG gasification device, negative exponent probability distribution function simulation cargo ship and transferring ship arrive ETA estimated time of arrival is delayed and tank car filling arrival time, the arrival of negative exponent probability distribution function simulation cargo ship, transferring ship and tank car Time interval, Poisson probability distribution function simulation cargo ship, the arriving amt of transferring ship and tank car within a specified time, uniformly with The hour of machine distribution function simulation downstream user gas is with gas velocity rate fluctuation；It is first simultaneously also using the queue discipline for waiting system To first servicing.The application method of above-mentioned various functions is disclosed, and the present invention is only to be introduced into the various emulation moulds of the present invention During the deduction of formula.In above steps other methods outside above-mentioned specified function method can also be used to carry out in addition Simulation is deduced, and will not be repeated here.

5）Export the emulation deduction result of network-type LNG industry chain comprehensive analysis and index

After emulation deduction terminates, the emulation for above-mentioned seven kinds of patterns that Simulation System Platform 2 obtains emulation module 22 is deduced As a result the display output in index and report display module 23, emulation deduction result include：Long-term supply of material point, receiving station and fortune Relation and corresponding information between defeated ship；Relation and corresponding information between default stock point, receiving station and cargo ship；Default station Between transport receiving station, delivery receiving station and transferring ship between relation and corresponding information, dynamic stand between transport receiving station, hair Relation and corresponding information between goods receiving station and transferring ship, preset the terminal and delivery receiving station and transferring ship transported between station Between relation and corresponding information, relation between terminal, delivery receiving station and transferring ship that dynamic is transported between standing and corresponding Information, storage tank height-low liquid level in each receiving station and terminal and forces the time-space attribute statistics of tank-slack tank alarm and expense to count Form, generate the relation between supply and demand of the network-type LNG industry chain in the dry run time and show including long-term delivery LNG, default LNG Goods, default LNG transhipments, dynamic LNG are from stock and the batch of dynamic LNG transhipments, time window are distributed etc..If it should be noted that The various emulation of foregoing description are deduced pattern and not started, then the emulation deduction result output of associative mode is sky.

6）Simulation System Platform 2 will emulate deduction result deposit analytical database 24, and be transferred to trade management platform 3； The supply demand and tune of the network structure LNG industry chain in following three months to one-year age are generated by trade management platform 3 Degree is planned, and the GMS terminals of each receiving station and terminal are sent to by network, is generated by the GMS of each receiving station and terminal The operation plan of our station.

, can be in step 5 in above-described embodiment）With step 6）Between can increase by a step, i.e., to dynamic stock or dynamic The emulation deduction result transported between state station is verified, if selecting this step, using one of following three kinds of methods：

1. the emulation deduction result for dynamic spot mode

By step 5）Dynamic stock time window in the emulation deduction result of dynamic spot mode, distribution shifts are into from stock ADP, original long-term ADP is inserted according to Annual distribution, and updates the information of initial parameter database 21 accordingly, then carry out with Emulation for the purpose of checking is deduced；

If no longer producing dynamic stock index in emulation deduction result, step 5 can confirm that）Dynamic spot mode Emulation deduction result it is correct, into step 6）；

Otherwise return to step 2）, the information of adjustment initial parameter database 21（Whether mainly check has Introduced cases wrong By mistake or some are carried out about functional modification, such as ship appearance of dynamic stock cargo ship etc.）Afterwards, start emulation module 22 to enter The emulation of a row new round is deduced.

2. the emulation deduction result of transportation mode between being stood for dynamic

By step 5）Transhipment time window between dynamic station between dynamic is stood in transportation mode emulation deduction result, distribution shifts Into ADP is transported between station, original long-term ADP is inserted according to Annual distribution, and updates the information of initial parameter database 21 accordingly, Then the emulation for the purpose of checking is carried out to deduce；

If no longer being produced in emulation deduction result between dynamic is stood and transporting index, illustrate step 5）Dynamic station between transport The emulation deduction result of pattern is correct, into step 6）；Otherwise return to step 2）, adjust initial parameter database information（Mainly It is to check whether have Introduced cases mistake or carry out some about functional modification, such as dynamically transhipment transferring ship between station Ship hold etc.）Afterwards, the emulation deduction that emulation module 22 carries out a new round is started.

3. there is the emulation deduction result of transportation mode between dynamic station again for existing dynamic spot mode

By step 5）Dynamic stock time window and dynamic in the emulation deduction result of dynamic spot mode are transported between standing Transhipment time window between dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result, whole distribution shifts are into receiving station ADP, according to Annual distribution Original long-term ADP is inserted, and updates the information of initial parameter database 21 accordingly, then carries out the emulation for the purpose of checking Deduce；

Dynamic stock index is both no longer produced in deduction result if emulated, also no longer produces between dynamic is stood and transports index, Then illustrate step 5）Emulation deduction result it is correct, into step 6）；Otherwise return to step 2）, adjustment initial parameter database letter Breath（Whether mainly check has Introduced cases mistake or carries out some about dynamically being transported between functional modification, such as station Ship appearance with transferring ship etc.）Afterwards, the emulation deduction that emulation module 22 carries out a new round is started.

In above-mentioned analytical database 24 include to every time emulation deduction result, particularly confirm after initial parameter list and The through transport alliance index of corresponding long-term supply point, stock point, receiving station, terminal, cargo ship and transferring ship, for manually returning Care for and historical data statistical analysis, formation manual analysis experience.

The various embodiments described above are merely to illustrate the present invention, wherein the structure of each part, connected mode etc. are all can be Change, every equivalents carried out on the basis of technical solution of the present invention and improvement, it should not exclude the present invention's Outside protection domain.

Claims (5)

1. a kind of network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, it comprises the following steps：

1) a network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting is set to dispatch system, it includes a total tune center and a trade management platform, One Simulation System Platform connecting the two；It is described always to adjust centrally through each receiving station of network connection and the DCS of terminal, the trade Manageability platform passes through each receiving station of network connection and the GMS of terminal；The Simulation System Platform includes initial parameter data Storehouse, be built-in with combine Monte carlo algorithm and operational research queueing theory discrete emulation deduce the emulation module of program, index and Report display module and analytical database；

2) various initial data have been pre-entered in the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform, it includes each long-term supply of material point Supply of material information to correspondingly received station, supply of material information, receiving station and terminal of each receiving station to corresponding terminal are used downstream Defeated outside the natural gas at family, tank car liquid outward transport and year, month, day, the hour demand forecasting information of user, are gathered by each DCS The initial liquid level of each storage tank and total tank hold information, and storage tank dynamic monitor control index in each receiving station and terminal；Wherein, storage tank Dynamic monitor control index includes：

A, tank ratio parameter is forced, its span is the 85%~95% of tank capacity；

B, high warning level parameter, its span are the 85%~90% of tank capacity；

C, low warning level parameter, its span are the 8%~15% of tank capacity；

D, guard against tank appearance and meet the critical value parameter of downstream demand, its time span is 48 hours~72 hours；Tank is guarded against to hold Meet that the critical value parameter of downstream demand coordinates with low warning level parameter, downstream is protected at problem with gas demand classes Reason；

E, stock level parameter is asked, its time span is generally 72 hours~150 hours；When storage tank current residual tank holds The difference that tank corresponding with low warning level parameter holds, the duration that can be maintained with gas velocity rate according to current time downstream user are less than When asking stock level parameter, system sends once stock and asked；

F, level parameter is transported between request station, its time span is 60 hours~100 hours, when storage tank current residual tank holds The difference that tank corresponding with low warning level parameter holds, the duration that can be maintained with gas velocity rate according to current time downstream user are less than During request transhipment level parameter, system sends between once dynamic is stood and transports request；

3) Simulation System Platform collects the data updated in the initial parameter database by the DNS of each receiving station and terminal Information, it includes the real-time level information of each storage tank arrived by DCS real-time collectings and total tank and holds information, harbour and navigation channel Year, month, day, the hour demand of the newest weather forecast of bad weather information, defeated outside natural gas, tank car liquid outward transport and user are pre- Measurement information, the purchase gas contract currently signed, the newest proposition of downstream user with gas demand and the fluctuating range of hour flow；

4) Simulation System Platform startup emulation module carries out emulation deduction, and it comprises the following steps：

1. emulation module reads in the data message after initial parameter database update, the long-term of specified time Nei Ge receiving station is scanned ADP, if which receiving station does not have long-term ADP, terminate the emulation to the receiving station and deduce program；Otherwise enter next Step；

2. emulation module judges that taking which kind of emulation deduction pattern to carry out corresponding emulation deduces：

A, if receiving station only have selected the ADP of long-term supply of material point, according to " the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station ", it is determined that long-term supply Goods point and corresponding long-term supply of material cargo ship, are imitated according to long-term supply of material point, long-term supply of material cargo ship and the relation of receiving station It is true to deduce；

If B, receiving station also selects that stock is supplied, determine whether it is default stock ADP, or dynamic stock：

If default stock ADP, then according to " receiving station presets stock ADP patterns ", it is determined that default stock point information and corresponding Cargo ship, carry out emulation deduction according to default stock point, cargo ship and the relation of receiving station；

If dynamic stock, then according to " receiving station's dynamic spot mode ", according to the dynamic stock point in uncertain source, transport The relation of ship and receiving station carries out emulation deduction；

If C, receiving station also selects transportation mode between station, determine whether it is to transport ADP between default station, or dynamic is stood Between transport：

If transporting ADP between default station, then according to " ADP patterns are transported between default station by receiving station ", it is determined that delivery receiving station and Transferring ship information, emulation deduction is carried out according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and the receiving station that delivers；

If dynamic is transported between standing, then according to " transportation mode between receiving station's dynamic is stood ", startup LNG dynamics are transported preferred first Program, it is determined that delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station Relation carries out emulation deduction；

D, for terminal, if receiving station is sky with terminal ADP, the related emulation of terminal is not run and is deduced, if in Turn to transport between station have selected the station with receiving station, then determine whether it is to transport ADP between terminal presets station, or terminal moves State is transported between station：

If transporting ADP between the default station of terminal, then according to " terminal transports ADP patterns between default station ", it is determined that delivery connects Station and transferring ship information are received, emulation deduction is carried out according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and the receiving station that delivers；

If terminal dynamic is transported between standing, then according to " transportation mode between terminal dynamic is stood ", start LNG dynamics first and turn Preferable procedure is transported, it is determined that delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then connect according to terminal, transferring ship and delivery The relation for receiving station carries out emulation deduction；

5) after emulation deduction terminates, the emulation deduction results of the various patterns that Simulation System Platform obtains emulation module shows defeated Go out in index and report display module；

6) Simulation System Platform will emulate deduction result deposit analytical database, and be transferred to trade management platform；By trade pipe The supply demand and operation plan of network structure LNG industry chain in platform generation is following three months to one-year age, and The GMS terminals of each receiving station and terminal are sent to by network, the scheduling of our station is generated by the GMS of each receiving station and terminal Plan.

A kind of 2. network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：In step 5) the step of emulation deduction result transported between a pair of dynamic stocks and dynamic station is verified is increased between step 6), if This step is selected, then using one of following three kinds of methods：

1. the emulation deduction result for dynamic spot mode

By the dynamic stock time window in the emulation deduction result of step 5) dynamic spot mode, distribution shifts into stock ADP, Original long-term ADP is inserted according to Annual distribution, and updates the information of initial parameter database accordingly, is then carried out to be verified as The emulation of purpose is deduced；If no longer producing dynamic stock index in emulation deduction result, the dynamic of step 5) can confirm that The emulation deduction result of spot mode is correct, into step 6)；Otherwise return to step 2), adjust initial parameter database information Afterwards, the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round is started；

2. the emulation deduction result of transportation mode between being stood for dynamic

Transhipment time window between dynamic station between step 5) dynamic is stood in transportation mode emulation deduction result, distribution shifts are into station Between transport ADP, insert original long-term ADP according to Annual distribution, and update the information of initial parameter database, Ran Houjin accordingly Emulation of the row for the purpose of verifying is deduced；If no longer being produced in emulation deduction result between dynamic is stood and transporting index, illustrate step The emulation deduction result of transportation mode is correct between rapid dynamic station 5), into step 6)；Otherwise return to step 2), adjust initial ginseng After number database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round；

3. there is the emulation deduction result of transportation mode between dynamic station again for existing dynamic spot mode

Transportation mode between dynamic stock time window in the emulation deduction result of step 5) dynamic spot mode and dynamic are stood Transhipment time window between dynamic station in emulation deduction result, whole distribution shifts insert into receiving station ADP according to Annual distribution Original long-term ADP, and the information of initial parameter database is updated accordingly, then carry out the emulation for the purpose of checking and deduce； Dynamic stock index is both no longer produced in deduction result if emulated, also no longer produces between dynamic is stood and transports index, then explanation step Rapid emulation deduction result 5) is correct, into step 6)；Otherwise return to step 2), after adjusting initial parameter database information, open The emulation that dynamic emulation module carries out a new round is deduced.

A kind of 3. network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that：It is described The step of step 4) 2. in, emulation deduction pattern deduction process include：

First, process is deduced in the emulation of the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station：

A, inside long-term supply of material point, LNG materials according to from gas field, natural gas treatment plant, natural gas liquefaction device, storage tank, Facility is loaded onto ship to the sequential flowing of long-term supply of material cargo ship boatload；Synchronous with this, long-term cargo ship clean ship of supplying is outer according to entering Port, the order carry out activity in inner harbor berth, connection shipment facility；

B, inside receiving station, LNG materials are according to from unloading facility, storage tank, BOG treatment facilities to LNG output pumps, then from LNG Output pump, LNG gasification device, pass through multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users and the class gaseous state user of plant gas three, Yi Jicong The sequential flowing that LNG output pumps are transported outward to tank car liquid；In flow process, corresponding position is made according to storage tank dynamic monitor control index Reason, i.e., judge whether " forcing tank " between unloading facility and storage tank, judge whether between storage tank and LNG output pumps " protect supply " and Whether " slack tank ", result includes：

If during cargo ship discharging, storage tank residue tank holds the LNG materials for being not enough to store whole ship, " forcing tank " phenomenon is produced, then is imitated Output one " receiving station forces tank detail " form in true result, records the ID numberings of receiving station, moment, finish time, transport occurs The detailed datas such as the ID numberings of ship, ship type, while can also record and force tank ship number, averagely force tank duration and always force tank duration, transport Defeated ship must wait until " forcing tank " phenomenon, which eliminates, can start discharging；

If storage tank is " slack tank ", " early warning of a website low liquid level " form is exported in simulation result, low warning occurs for record The ID numberings of the receiving station of liquid level warning, alarm start time, the detailed data such as finish time, LNG output pumps must close down until " slack tank " phenomenon is eliminated and can reopened；

If storage tank has arrived at " warning tank, which holds, meets the critical value parameter of downstream demand ", it is necessary to start different grades of " protect For ", then export one " segment record during website slack tank " and " website protect civilian closes down form " in simulation result, record time of fire alarming and The detailed service data such as slack tank time；LNG output pumps must control LNG output pumps gradually according to " speed control is closed down in classification " Close down and tank car, plant gas user, industrial user, the multi-purpose station pipeline up to being connected between town users；

Synchronous with this, cargo ship boatload is being transported according to the operation order activity for entering outport, inner harbor berth, connection unloading facility Defeated ship is judged whether after entering inner harbor berth according to harbour quantity and function while operation：The single cargo ship if only one harbour Discharging；Two cargo ship dischargings simultaneously if two harbours；, can be by severe day in the operation in outport and inner harbor berth is entered The uncertain element such as gas and tidal conditions, and the influence of daytime operation time restriction；

C, the use gas demand of the downstream user of receiving station, constantly issues receiving station, the LNG gas of receiving station at set time intervals Change device and LNG output pumps give the supply of matching；Therebetween if receiving station's deliverability does not reach, then according to the bottle of supply equipment Neck grease power or the supply of the LNG supply amounts of restriction, i.e., hold according to warning tank in storage tank dynamic monitor control index and meet that downstream demand faces Dividing value performs；

D, long-term ADP cargo ship is performed, is come and gone back and forth on double way channel of the long-term supply of material point to receiving station, it is long-term arriving at When the supply of material is put and leaves receiving station, the long-term state for supplying cargo ship is " clean ship "；Leave long-term supply of material point and arrive at reception When standing, the long-term state for supplying cargo ship is " boatload "；

2nd, receiving station presets the emulation deduction process of stock ADP patterns：

The emulation deduction process of the emulation deduction process of the default stock ADP patterns of receiving station and the long-term ADP patterns of receiving station is complete It is identical, it is only necessary to by the information of long-term supply of material point and the information of long-term supply of material cargo ship, replace with default stock point information and The information of default stock cargo ship, step a~d during then being deduced according to the long-term ADP mode simulations of receiving station are imitated It is true to deduce, you can to obtain the emulation deduction result that receiving station presets stock ADP patterns；

3rd, process is deduced in the emulation of receiving station's dynamic spot mode：

A, according to long-term ADP, default stock ADP implementation status and downstream user gas actual demand, emulation module according to The tank level information gathered in real time and storage tank dynamic monitor control index comparing result, send dynamic stock and ask, and setting only has After once the request of dynamic stock is met, the emulation that can just start a new round according to latest development is deduced；

B, dynamic stock delivery point is asked according to dynamic stock, only determines delivery amount and the time of delivery of dynamic stock；

C, the cargo ship for performing dynamic stock transport task comes and goes back and forth between dynamic stock point and receiving station；Arriving at stock When putting and leaving receiving station, the state of stock cargo ship is " clean ship "；Leave stock put and arrive at receiving station when, stock transport The state of ship is " boatload "；

4th, process is deduced in the emulation that ADP patterns are transported between the default station of receiving station：

A, the receiving station that receives transported between the delivery receiving station transported between the default station of input, default station, transferring ship, transport navigation channel, ADP information is transported between default station by navigation channel weather conditions, receiving station；

B, in the delivery receiving station transported between default station, LNG materials from the storage tank, shipment facility, harbour of delivery receiving station to Transferring ship is until reach the sequential flowing of boatload；Synchronous with this, unloaded transferring ship is according to the outport, interior for entering the receiving station that delivers Port berth, the operation order activity of harbour, connection shipment facility；

C, the transferring ship transported between default station is performed, it is past in delivery receiving station to the double way channel that receiving station is transported between default station Return, when transporting receiving station between reaching default station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload；Leaving default station Between transport receiving station and reach delivery receiving station when, the state of transferring ship is clean ship；

5th, process is deduced in the emulation of transportation mode between receiving station's dynamic is stood：

A, start dynamic transhipment preferable procedure, select the delivery receiving station as transhipment request receiving station between dynamically standing, and accordingly Transferring ship, transport navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions information；

B, inside selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship is set according into outport, inner harbor berth, harbour, connection shipment The operation order activity applied, LNG materials are according to from dynamic delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to dynamic stock cargo ship boatload Sequential flowing, according to from unloading facility, storage tank, output pump, gasifier, outer defeated inside transhipment request receiving station between dynamic is stood The sequential flowing that pipeline is transported outward to industrial user, town users, the three class gaseous state users of plant gas user and tank car liquid；

C, the transferring ship transported between dynamic is stood is performed, the double way channel of transhipment request receiving station between delivery receiving station stands to dynamic Upper to come and go, when transhipment request receiving station is with delivery receiving station is left between arrival dynamic is stood, the state of transferring ship is boatload；From When starting transhipment request receiving station between state station and reaching delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship；

D, emulate the actual demand of situation and downstream user gas according to the ADP of each long-term supply of material point, each receiving station according to The tank level information gathered in real time and storage tank dynamic monitor control index comparing result, transhipment please between sending the dynamic station of receiving station Ask, and set emulation module only after transhipment request is met between once dynamically standing, can just be started according to latest development new The emulation of one wheel is deduced；

6th, process is deduced in the emulation that ADP patterns are transported between the default station of terminal：

A, the delivery receiving station transported between the terminal transported between station, default station, transferring ship, transport navigation channel, navigation channel are preset in input Weather conditions, terminal transport ADP information between default station；

B, in the delivery receiving station transported between default station, transferring ship clean ship is set according into outport, inner harbor berth, connection shipment The operation order activity applied, LNG materials according to from delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility between default station transferring ship boatload it is suitable Sequence flows, according to the order activity transported outward from unloading facility, storage tank, tank car liquid inside transhipment station between default station；

C, perform the transferring ship transported between default station, delivery receiving station between default station on the double way channel at transhipment station it is past Return, when transhipment station is with delivery receiving station is left between reaching default station, the state of transferring ship is boatload；Leaving default station Between transhipment station and reach delivery receiving station when, the state of transferring ship is clean ship；

7th, process is deduced in the emulation of transportation mode between terminal dynamic is stood：

A, start between dynamic is stood and operate preferable procedure, select as the delivery receiving station that terminal is asked between dynamically standing, Yi Jixiang The transferring ship answered, transport the information of navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions；

B, inside selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship is according to the behaviour for entering outport, inner harbor berth, connection shipment facility Work order activity, LNG materials are according to the order that delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to transferring ship boatload are transported between being stood from dynamic Flowing, transported between dynamic is stood inside the terminal of request according to the sequential flow transported outward from unloading facility, storage tank, tank car liquid It is dynamic；

C, the transferring ship transported between dynamic is stood is performed, the double way channel of transhipment request terminal between delivery receiving station stands to dynamic Upper to come and go, when transhipment request terminal is with delivery receiving station is left between arrival dynamic is stood, the state of transferring ship is boatload；From When starting transhipment request terminal between state station and reaching delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship；

D, situation and the conditions of demand of downstream gas are emulated according to the ADP of each long-term supply of material point, each terminal is according in real time The tank level information of collection and storage tank dynamic monitor control index comparing result, transhipment request between the dynamic station of terminal is sent, and Setting emulation module just can start a new round only after transhipment request is met between once dynamically standing according to latest development Emulation is deduced.

4. such as claim 1 or 2 or a kind of described network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, it is characterised in that：Institute Dynamic transhipment preferable procedure is stated to comprise the following steps：

I, for proposing that dynamic transports receiving station or the terminal of request between standing, three parameters are calculated in real time：Storage tank residual capacity Subtracting low warning liquid level and correspond to the required time M in downstream, cargo ship arrives ETA estimated time of arrival N in default long-term ADP information next time, or What terminal preset transferring ship in ADP information arrive ETA estimated time of arrival N, and storage tank request is transported can maintain duration L corresponding to liquid level；

Ii, judge whether each receiving station that dynamic is transported beyond request receiving station or terminal between standing meets condition " M ＜ N and M ＜ =L "；If be unsatisfactory for, transhipment request receiving station or terminal are transported entering Mobile state station will not occurring to stand dynamic Activity；Filled if it is satisfied, then reaching as what is transported entering Mobile state station to transhipment request receiving station or terminal dynamic station Divide necessary condition, carry out in next step；

Iii, the condition that fed using transferring ship are screened to each receiving station in optional delivery receiving station group；Selection delivery receives Condition of standing is that the receiving station meets that storage tank residual capacity subtracts the low difference for guarding against liquid level and is more than transferring ship capacity；

Iv, the condition that fed using transferring ship are screened to each receiving station in optional delivery receiving station group；Selection delivery receives Condition of standing is to meet that storage tank residual capacity subtracts the low difference for guarding against liquid level and is more than transferring ship capacity in the receiving station；

V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, connect respectively with each delivery receiving station to be screened to transhipment request between dynamic station Receive the haulage time T of station or terminal₁、T₂、T₃..., T_n＜ M are condition, filter out haulage time less than M and its right respectively The delivery receiving station answered, wherein；The n of subscript 1,2,3 ... is the numbering of each receiving station of delivery；

Vi, compare remaining haulage time and its delivery receiving station corresponding to them after screening, transported according to LNG delivery prices Air Canada The standard of network minimal, preferably determine optional delivery receiving station；

If vii, above-mentioned steps vi) terminate, still there are no less than two delivery receiving stations, then selection transport voyage is most short corresponding Deliver receiving station, and now remaining delivery receiving station is unique, and the delivery receiving station is determined by preferable procedure, made For transhipment request receiving station between dynamically standing or the delivery receiving station of terminal.

A kind of 5. network-type LNG industry chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that：Using Uniformly random distribution function simulation tank car entrucking speed, cargo ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, rectangle probability distribution function mould Intend the reliability of harbour adverse weather conditions, normal state probability distribution function simulation LNG output pumps and the outer transfer device of LNG gasification device, It is random to ETA estimated time of arrival delay and tank car filling arrival time, negative exponent that negative exponent probability distribution function simulates cargo ship and transferring ship The arrival time interval of distribution function simulation cargo ship, transferring ship and tank car, Poisson probability distribution function simulation cargo ship, transhipment The arriving amt of ship and tank car within a specified time, hour of uniformly random distribution function simulation downstream user gas is with gas velocity rate Fluctuation；Simultaneously also using the queue discipline for waiting system, First Come First Served.