CN103632234A - Network type LNG (liquefied natural gas) industrial chain integrated prediction and scheduling method - Google Patents

Network type LNG (liquefied natural gas) industrial chain integrated prediction and scheduling method Download PDF

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CN103632234A
CN103632234A CN201310652261.7A CN201310652261A CN103632234A CN 103632234 A CN103632234 A CN 103632234A CN 201310652261 A CN201310652261 A CN 201310652261A CN 103632234 A CN103632234 A CN 103632234A
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receiving station
station
ship
emulation
dynamically
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CN103632234B (en
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付子航
邱健勇
唐令力
单彤文
崔峰
周婵
程昊
刘冰
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China National Offshore Oil Corp CNOOC
CNOOC Gas and Power Group Co Ltd
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China National Offshore Oil Corp CNOOC
CNOOC Gas and Power Group Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to a network type LNG (liquefied natural gas) industrial chain integrated prediction and scheduling method which includes the steps of (1) setting a network type LNG industrial chain integrated prediction and scheduling system, (2) inputting various original data to an initial parameter database of a simulation system platform in advance, (3) by the simulation system platform, collecting and updating data information of the initial parameter database through DCS (distribution control system) of various receiving stations and transfer stations, (4) starting a simulation module by the simulation system platform to perform simulation deduction, (5) displaying the simulation deduction results by index and report display modules, (6) transmitting the simulation deduction results to a trade management platform by the simulation system platform, and then sending the results to GMS(gas management system) terminals of the receiving stations and the transfer stations via the trade management platform so as to generate the scheduling plan of the home station. The network type LNG industrial chain integrated prediction and scheduling system comprises a master scheduling center, the simulation system platform and the trade management platform; the master scheduling center is connected with the DCS of the receiving stations and the transfer stations, the trade management platform is connected with the GMS of the receiving stations and the transfer stations; the simulation system platform comprises an initial parameter database, the simulation module, the index and report display module and an analysis database.

Description

A kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of LNG(liquefied natural gas (LNG)) industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, particularly about a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method of supplying for a long time under too many levels, many operational modes such as transhipment between the default of point (be LNG liquefaction factory), many LNG stock Dian,Duo LNG receiving station, many LNG terminal, many LNG transportation fleet, many LNG transhipment fleet and dynamic stock, default and dynamic station at many LNG.
Background technology
In LNG industrial chain, the basic function of receiving station is the cargo ship of unloading and coming through ocean sea-freight from long-term supply of material point, after being unloaded a ship, LNG material is stored in LNG storage tank, according to downstream gas demand, outside after LNG gasification, transport to industry, civilian and plant gas three class gaseous state users, also sub-fraction LNG is passed through to the directly liquid outward transport of LNG tank car simultaneously.Stock point in LNG industrial chain, being similar to long-term relation of supplying Dian，Yu receiving station is the relation of the default delivery schedule based on shorter.Terminal in LNG industrial chain is the secondary station of receiving station, is mainly engaged in liquid distribution to tank car user, and terminal only receives the transhipment source of goods of or dynamical fashion default from receiving station, and can not again transport.Generally speaking, the elementary process of LNG industrial chain activity is the discrete LNG material outward transport of large LNG material supplied materials of simultaneously processing discretize, the continuous LNG material constantly changing and short run, keep LNG stock material in normal range, and require to keep space-time coupling within current and following more than at least three months time.
In LNG industrial chain, existing many problems to need to solve: such as due to the reasons such as controlled atmosphere peak and seasonal fluctuation for downstream, the ADP(year delivery schedule of supplying for a long time a little except carry out LNG by batch ground) Wai， receiving station also has dynamic need from stock; Between receiving station, between terminal and receiving station, by transferring ship, dynamically stand between transhipment, combined optimization is protected the demand for gas market; How farthest to utilize the transport power of transferring ship, guarantee that the storage tank stock of receiving station and terminal rationally uses, reduce the demand of transportation and storage expenses; And under LNG industrial chain general layout, utilize multi-receiver station, the uniting and adjustment of many terminals, alliance, combined optimization in order to solve, ensure Yong Qi market, downstream and the multi-receiver station producing, many terminals carry out the dynamically demand of transhipment between station of network-type by transferring ship.
And the technological means of present stage is the DCS(scattered control system by single receiving station or terminal) monitor the tank appearance level of each storage tank in this receiving station or terminal, analyze the long-term ADP(that supplies Dian Dui receiving station and be called for short long-term ADP), receiving station is to the transhipment ADP of terminal and downstream use gas anticipated demand matching relationship, Bing Yiben receiving station is foothold, manual analysis stock, transhipment between station between receiving station, quantity and the time window between receiving station and terminal, between station, transported, analysis result is uploaded to the GMS(gas management system of our station) terminal formation operation plan.Existing method is taken as the leading factor with subjective experience, and critical data analysis and processing are all comparatively elementary, cannot adapt to the timely dynamically adjustment of Production requirement, and the foresight of plan is poor, and the risk of disturbing receiving station or terminal normally to move is very high.And under LNG industrial chain general layout, the stock that fixedly waiting plan and dynamic need trigger, stand between management and the control of the overall network system such as transhipment, transferring ship management, all cannot rely on manual analysis to complete.In addition, under many natural uncertain factor impacts, often be difficult to estimate rational time window, more be difficult to effectively plan as a whole the cyberrelationship of multi-receiver station, many terminals simultaneously, thereby " forcing tank " occurs the storage tank that causes certain station, (forcing tank is that LNG storage is higher, be difficult to carry out LNG filling), and there is " slack tank " in the storage tank at another station, cargo ship occurs at harbour or transferring ship is queued up, cannot adapt to the problems such as production run requirement under complex environment, not only make assets utilization degree reduce, and can cause the air feed security risk that is difficult to bear.
Summary of the invention
For the problems referred to above, the object of this invention is to provide and be a kind ofly applicable to how long phase supply of material point, many stock point, multi-receiver station, many terminals, transport fleet more, transport the default of fleet and dynamic stock more, the network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method between default and dynamic station under too many levels, many operational modes such as transhipment.
For achieving the above object, the present invention takes following technical scheme: a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, it comprises the following steps: 1) a network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system is set, it comprises Yi Zongtiao center and a trade management platform, and one connects the Simulation System Platform of the two; Described Zong Tiao center connects the DCS of each receiving station and terminal by network, described trade management platform connects the GMS of each receiving station and terminal by network; Described Simulation System Platform comprises initial parameter database, is built-in with emulation module, index and report display module and the analytical database of the discrete emulation deduction program that combines Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory; 2) in the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform, various raw data have been pre-entered, it comprises the supply of material information of each long-term supply of material point to corresponding receiving station, each receiving station is year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information to outer defeated, the liquid outward transport of tank car of the rock gas of downstream user and user to supply of material information, receiving station and the terminal of corresponding terminal, in each receiving station gathering by each DCS and terminal, the initial liquid level of each storage tank and total tank hold information, and storage tank dynamic monitoring index; 3) Simulation System Platform collects by the DNS of each receiving station and terminal the data message upgrading in described initial parameter database, it comprises that the real-time level information of each storage tank arriving by DCS real-time collecting and total tank hold information, the up-to-date weather forecast of the inclement weather information in harbour and navigation channel, outer defeated, the liquid outward transport of tank car of rock gas and user's year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information, the gas contract of purchasing of current signing, the fluctuating range with gas demand and hour flow of the up-to-date proposition of downstream user; 4) Simulation System Platform starts emulation module and carries out emulation deduction, it comprises the following steps: 1. emulation module reads in the data message after initial parameter database update, the long-term ADP of scanning fixed time Nei Ge receiving station, if which receiving station does not have long-term ADP, program is deduced in the emulation that stops Dui Gai receiving station; Otherwise enter next step; 2. which kind of emulation deduction pattern emulation module judgement takes carry out corresponding emulation deduction: if the ADP of long-term supply of material point has only selected in A receiving station, according to " the long-term ADP pattern of receiving station ", determine long-term supply of material point and corresponding long-term supply of material cargo ship, according to long-term supply of material point, the supply relation of cargo ship and receiving station is carried out emulation deduction for a long time; If the supply of material from stock has also been selected by B receiving station, further judgement is default stock ADP, or dynamically from stock: if default stock ADP, according to " the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern ", determine default stock dot information and corresponding cargo ship, according to the relation of default stock point, cargo ship and receiving station, carry out emulation deduction; If dynamically from stock, according to " the dynamic spot mode of receiving station ", carry out emulation deduction according to the relation of dynamic stock point, cargo ship and the receiving station in uncertain source; If transhipment pattern between station has also been selected by C receiving station, further judgement is to transport ADP between default station, or dynamically transhipment between station: if transport ADP between default station, according to " ADP pattern is transported between default station by receiving station ", determine delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction; If dynamically transhipment between station, according to " receiving station is transhipment pattern between station dynamically ", first start LNG and dynamically transport preferable procedure, determine delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction; D, for terminal, if receiving station and terminal ADP are empty, not moving the relevant emulation of terminal deduces, if transported between the station of terminal selection Liao Yu receiving station, further judgement is to transport ADP between the default station of terminal, or dynamically transhipment between station of terminal: if transport ADP between the default station of terminal, according to " terminal is transported ADP pattern between default station ", determine delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction; If dynamically transhipment between station of terminal, according to " terminal is transhipment pattern between station dynamically ", first start LNG and dynamically transport preferable procedure, determine delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to the relation of terminal, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction; 5), after emulation is deduced and finished, the emulation of the various patterns that Simulation System Platform obtains emulation module is deduced result and is shown that output is in index and report display module; 6) Simulation System Platform is deduced result by emulation and is deposited analytical database in, and is transferred to trade management platform; By trade management platform, generate following three months to supply and demand prediction and the operation plan of the network structure LNG industrial chain in one-year age, and send to the GMS terminal ，You Ge receiving station of each receiving station and terminal and the GMS of terminal to generate the operation plan of our station by network.
In the emulation that increases a pair of dynamic stock between step 5) and step 6) and dynamically transport between station, deduce the step that result is verified, if select this step, adopt one of following three kinds of methods: 1. for the emulation of dynamic spot mode, deduce result, the emulation of the dynamic spot mode of step 5) is deduced to the dynamic stock time window in result, distribution changes into stock ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as the emulation of object and deduce; If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically stock index, it is correct that result is deduced in the emulation that can confirm the dynamic spot mode of step 5), enters step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust after initial parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round; 2. for the emulation of transporting pattern between dynamic station, deduce result, step 5) is dynamically transported between station between the dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result and transported time window, distribution changes into and between station, transports ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as the emulation of object and deduce; If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) dynamic station between transport pattern emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust after initial parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round; 3. for existing dynamic spot mode, there is again the emulation of the pattern of transporting between dynamic station to deduce result, the emulation of the dynamic spot mode of step 5) is deduced to the dynamic stock time window in result and dynamically between station, transported between the dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result and transport time window, all distribute and change into the ADP of receiving station, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as the emulation of object and deduce; If emulation is deduced in result and both no longer produced dynamically stock index, also no longer produce dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust after initial parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round.
The present invention is owing to taking above technical scheme, and it has the following advantages: 1, the present invention is due to the phase supply of material point how long, many stock points, multi-receiver station, many terminals, transport fleets more and transport in the network structure of fleet's composition more, being provided with a LNG industry integrated forecasting dispatching system, and in this system, being provided with Zong Tiao center, Simulation System Platform and trade management platform, and in Simulation System Platform, be provided with initial parameter database, emulation module, index and report display module and analytical database, so the present invention can use according to downstream the dynamic stock demand of the receiving station of the reason generations such as controlled atmosphere peak and seasonal fluctuation, receiving station is to transhipment demand between the dynamic station of receiving station, and terminal, to transhipment demand between the dynamic station of receiving station, is walked abreast and according to each receiving station of sequential simulation, carried out long-term ADP and the dynamic stock of scheduling according to condition by emulation module, the dynamic mutual complex process such as transhipment between station, generate in the fixed time long-term ADP with dynamically not from stock, quantity and the time match relation of dynamically between station, transporting.2, the present invention uses Monte carlo algorithm simulation stochastic process and operational research Queueing Theory Method, the LNG material of analogue simulation discretize and the LNG material of continuous stream, and LNG is from long-term supply of material point in simulation, stock point, cargo ship transport by sea, receiving station, terminal, each link of the LNG industrial chain that the coastal transportation of transferring ship forms, the mobile flow process of link materials inside and logical relation each other and allocation and transportation relation, to the main undulatory property in network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting scheduling process, mathematics manipulation is carried out in probabilistic distribution, not only can predict and generate quantity and the time match relation of demand, and can, according to the automatic deduction result in setting-up time length, provide all sidedly long-term supply of material point, stock point, cargo ship, receiving station, terminal, transferring ship, stock transportation, between standing, transport, storage tank two position and the time-space attribute of forcing ullage tank to report to the police etc., provide unitized qualitative results really, makes emulation deduce result more accurate, fundamentally solved under LNG industrial chain network structure and be difficult to use conventional means comprehensively to be allocated and transported, the practical challenges of alliance, provides LNG supply security, peak regulation ensures and industrial chain is moved efficient technical matters.3, the network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system that the present invention arranges, except predicting and generate dynamic stock, dynamically between station, transport outside time window distribution, can also be according to the deduction result in preset time length, careful, cargo ship is provided imperfectly, long-term supply of material point, dynamic stock point, dynamically between station, transport delivery receiving station, high-low liquid level of storage tank and time-space attribute statistics and the expense statistical report form of forcing tank-slack tank to report to the police, make data handling procedure robotization, improved the prediction schedule speed of network-type LNG, accuracy and practical operability, for the integrated forecasting of scientific management LNG industrial chain, dispatch strong foundation is provided, for further improvement and extension system peripheral function provide higher possibility.4, the present invention is due in network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system, by total tune central site network, connect original DCS image data in each receiving station and terminal, by trade management platform network, connect original GMS terminal in each receiving station and terminal and send deduction result, therefore effectively improved the automaticity of whole system, make the present invention can be according to actual needs, upgrade dynamic stock request in the fixed time, dynamically more scientific, the modernization of the management of transhipment request and corresponding waiting operation plan ，Shi receiving station between station.5, the present invention has taken into full account the various situations in network-type LNG industrial chain, sum up the emulation corresponding with various situations and deduced pattern, and various patterns are obtained to emulation deduction result alternately together, these emulation are deduced result and are provided operation plan together with original long-term ADP, jointly formed accurately and reliably and complete ADP information, can meet better downstream gas demand, this is that prior art is not accomplished.The present invention is applicable to how long phase supply of material point, many stock point, multi-receiver station, many terminals, transport fleet, transport the default of fleet and dynamic stock more more, between default and dynamic station in the prediction scheduling process of the network-type LNG of the too many levels such as transhipment, many operational modes.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is that LNG industrial chain comprehensive key element of the present invention is related to schematic diagram
Fig. 2 is LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system of the present invention
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of storage tank dynamic monitoring index relation of the present invention
Fig. 4 is integrated forecasting scheduling flow schematic diagram of the present invention
Fig. 5 is the dynamic spot mode schematic flow sheet of the present invention
Fig. 6 is that the present invention dynamically transports model process schematic diagram
Fig. 7 is that the present invention dynamically transports preferable procedure schematic diagram
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is described in detail.
A kind of network-type LNG of the present invention industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method comprises the following steps (as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2):
1) a network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system is set
By how long phase supply of material point, many stock point, multi-receiver station, many terminals, transport fleet more, a LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system be set in transporting the network system that fleet forms more, it comprises Yi Zongtiao center 1, a LNG industrial chain comprehensive simulating system platform 2 and a trade management platform 3.Zong Tiao center 1, Simulation System Platform 2 and trade management platform 3 can be arranged on separately a place, also can be arranged in any receiving station.Wherein:
Zong Tiao center 1 connects the conventional DCS arranging in each receiving station and terminal by network, and by each DCS Real-time Collection, monitor the outer transmission information of liquid level information, gaseous state and the tank car outward transport information of each storage tank in corresponding receiving station and terminal, that obtains each receiving station and terminal uses gas demand form and the data that fluctuate simultaneously, and is flowed to Simulation System Platform 2.
Simulation System Platform 2 comprises initial parameter database 21, emulation module 22, index and report display module 23 and analytical database 24.Emulation module 22 is built-in with the discrete emulation deduction process that combines Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory.Wherein Monte carlo algorithm is to take probability and statistical methods as basis, and the problem solving is associated with appropriate probability model, produces a large amount of random numbers or pseudo random number is carried out statistical simulation or sampling, to obtain approximate solution with computing machine; Monte Carlo derivation algorithm is the method that generates random number in calculation procedure, is the technology of open and widespread use.Operational research waiting line theory is by service object's arrival and the statistical research of service time, draws the statistical law of quantitative indexes such as comprising stand-by period, queue length, busy period length; Operational research waiting line theory is the setting of queue discipline and probability distribution function, and this function itself is the technology of open and widespread use.Discrete emulation mode is the concrete computer program that combines operational research waiting line theory and Monte Carlo derivation algorithm, by this computer program, it is careful that each element is carried out, intactly describe, the working rule of each element is adopted and run simultaneously and according to condition two kinds of patterns in chronological order, according to objective practical operation, process the element mobility of discrete flow and continuous stream completely, discrete emulation mode, according to continuously, evenly spaced time series, according to actual workflow and activity command, sequentially change at the appointed time the duty of above-mentioned element and entity, also be the technology that belongs to open and widespread use.The concrete condition that the present invention deals with problems as required, different description objects and corresponding relation each other, introduce the present invention by above-mentioned the whole bag of tricks, and it be applied in the emulation deduction process of various models particularly.
Trade management platform 3 connects the conventional GMS terminal arranging in each receiving station and terminal by network, trade management platform 3 can Xiang Ge receiving station and the plan information that obtains of the GMS terminal issue Simulation System Platform 2 of terminal, such as the plan in nearly two months carrys out ship, purchases stock, defeated and storage tank stock's waiting relation etc. outside actual, for production decision and the concrete operations of each receiving station and terminal.
2) in the initial parameter database 21 of Simulation System Platform 2, input raw information
1. on the operation interface of Simulation System Platform 2, in advance to the long-term ADP information ,Ge receiving station that inputs each long-term supply of material Dian Duige receiving station in initial parameter database 21 to ID numbering of the supply of material information of corresponding terminal, each long-term supply of material point, the ID numbering of ID numbering ,Ge receiving station of each cargo ship, the ID numbering of each terminal, the ID numbering in the ID numbering of each transferring ship and corresponding each navigation channel etc., for you to choose.
2. in initial parameter database 21, industrial user, town users and plant gas three class gaseous state users are contained in input, and the liquid user of tank car is at interior downstream user data message, each user of each receiving station and terminal downstream propose by gas demand form and fluctuating range data, the information such as defeated user's year, month, day, hour demand forecast outside the liquid outward transport of tank car and rock gas.
③Zong Tiao center 1 connects the DCS of each receiving station and terminal by network, the initial liquid level and the total tank that gather each storage tank hold flow information defeated outside information, gaseous state and the liquid outward transport of LNG tank car, and use gas demand data and the fluctuating range data of each receiving station and the proposition of terminal downstream user, and inputted initial parameter database 21, in initial parameter database 21, be also preset with storage tank dynamic monitoring index (as shown in Figure 3):
A) force tank ratio parameter, span is generally 85%～95% of tankage.
Force tank scale parameter to account for the high limit number percent of the effective water capacity of storage tank for showing LNG filling weight in storage tank, when cargo ship or transferring ship arrive the outport of receiving station or terminal, if reaching the residue tank of forcing the gross space of tank ratio to deduct tankage, storage tank holds space, the effective ship that is less than cargo ship or transferring ship holds, do not allow cargo ship or transferring ship to enter interior labuhan and port berth, that is " forcing tank " problem of generation.
B) high warning liquid level parameter, span is generally 85%～90% of tankage.
High warning liquid level parameter is similar to forces tank ratio parameter, but is not functional parameter, can get and force tank ratio identical data, only for early warning storage tank, operates the liquid level level of operational process.
C) low warning liquid level parameter, span is generally 8%～15% of tankage.
Low warning liquid level parameter is for the low liquid level warning of storage tank operation operational process.
D) warning tank holds and to meet downstream demand critical value parameter, and its time span is generally 48 hours～and 72 hours.
Warning tank holds and to meet downstream demand critical value parameter=(the corresponding tank of hold-low warning liquid level parameter of the current residual tank of storage tank holds)/current per day hour gas consumption, and this parameter be take hour as unit and carried out continual comparing.Warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter and coordinates with low warning liquid level parameter, and downstream use gas demand priority level is protected for problem and processed.When storage tank residue, stock reaches low warning liquid level parameter, being not enough to again maintain warning tank holds while meeting the duration of downstream demand critical value, if receiving station or terminal harbour, berth, inner harbor do not have cargo ship or transferring ship unloading, receiving station need close down output pump step by step according to downstream user use gas priority, stop outer defeated air feed (hereinafter to be referred as " protect for "), close down order and be: first tank car, secondly plant gas user, last industrial user, only protects for town users gas.
E) request stock liquid level (maintaining duration) parameter, its time span is generally 72 hours～and 150 hours.
Request stock liquid level parameter=(the corresponding tank of hold-low warning liquid level parameter of storage tank current residual tank holds)/current per day hour gas consumption, this parameter be take hour as unit and is carried out continual comparing.Request stock liquid level parameter is used for realizing dynamic stock request function.When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request stock liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically stock request.
F) between request station, transport liquid level parameter, its time span is generally 60 hours～and 100 hours.
Request transhipment liquid level parameter=(the corresponding tank of hold-low warning liquid level parameter of storage tank current residual tank holds)/current per day hour gas consumption, this parameter be take hour as unit and is carried out continual comparing.Request transhipment liquid level parameter is used for realizing between dynamic station transports request function.When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request transhipment liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically transhipment request between station.
The numerical range of above-mentioned various parameters also can and need to be chosen other value according to practical operating experiences.
3) information updating in initial parameter database 21
The present invention can start emulation module 22 by Simulation System Platform 2 as required and carry out automatic simulation deduction, and so-called needs can be 1 year, or longer or shorter time; Before carrying out emulation deduction, need to first carry out the information updating of initial parameter database 21, update content comprises:
①Zong Tiao center 1 is by the DCS in Dui Ge receiving station and terminal, the liquid level information of each storage tank that Real-Time Monitoring obtains, total tank hold information and long-term ADP carries out information, and inputted 21 pairs of data messages of initial parameter database and upgraded, wherein, the initial time of long-term ADP can be set as the last cargo ship and complete the time of paying LNG;
2. the inclement weather information in each harbour and navigation channel is manually upgraded according to up-to-date weather forecast data;
3. the liquid outward transport of each tank car and rock gas outward defeated user's year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information, the historical data report of a nearly term, the gas contract of purchasing of current signing, the up-to-date proposition of downstream user by gas demand and take hour as the data such as flow rate fluctuation amplitude of unit and manually upgrade.
4) Simulation System Platform 2 starts emulation module 22 and carries out emulation deduction
The emulation of emulation module 22 is deduced and is comprised the following steps (as shown in Fig. 4～6):
1. emulation module 22 reads in the data message after initial parameter database 21 upgrades, give each element assignment, scan the long-term ADP of fixed time (typically referring to following three months, 1 year or the longer time) Nei Ge receiving station, if the long-term ADP of this receiving station is empty, program is deduced in the emulation that stops this receiving station; If there is long-term ADP in this receiving station, enter next step;
2. emulation module 22, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, is analyzed except long-term ADP, whether has also started other supply of material pattern, and which kind of emulation deduction pattern judgement takes carry out corresponding emulation deduction:
If the ADP of long-term supply of material point has only selected in A receiving station, according to " the long-term ADP pattern of receiving station ", determine long-term supply of material point and corresponding long-term supply of material cargo ship, according to long-term supply of material point, the supply relation of cargo ship and receiving station is carried out emulation deduction for a long time, deduce the deviation that result can provide long-term ADP implementation status and default long-term ADP;
If the supply of material from stock has also been selected by B receiving station, further judge it is default stock ADP, or dynamically from stock:
If default stock ADP, according to " the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern ", determine default stock dot information and corresponding cargo ship, relation according to default stock point, cargo ship and receiving station is carried out emulation deduction, deduces the deviation that result can provide stock ADP implementation status and default stock ADP;
If dynamically from stock, according to " the dynamic spot mode of receiving station ", relation according to dynamic stock point, cargo ship and the receiving station in uncertain source is carried out emulation deduction, owing to dynamically putting from stock, be according to receiving station's Downstream Market demand, to carry out real-time response by system, therefore dynamically in spot mode, put from stock as uncertain source, corresponding cargo ship is also interim definite.
If transhipment between station has also been selected by C receiving station, further judgement is to transport ADP between default station, or dynamically transhipment between station:
If transport ADP between default station, according to " ADP pattern is transported between default station by receiving station ", determine delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, relation according to receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station is carried out emulation deduction, and deducing result can be to transporting the deviation of transporting ADP between ADP implementation status and default station between departures;
If dynamically transhipment between station, according to " receiving station is transhipment pattern between station dynamically ", first start LNG and dynamically transport preferable procedure, determine delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction.
D, for terminal, if receiving station and terminal ADP are empty, do not move the relevant emulation of terminal and deduce, if transported between the station of terminal selection Liao Yu receiving station, further judgement is to transport ADP between the default station of terminal, or dynamically transhipment between station of terminal:
If transport ADP between the default station of terminal, according to " terminal is transported ADP pattern between default station ", determine delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, relation according to receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station is carried out emulation deduction, and deducing result can be to transporting the deviation of transporting ADP between ADP implementation status and default station between departures;
If dynamically transhipment between station of terminal, according to " terminal is transhipment pattern between station dynamically ", first start LNG and dynamically transport preferable procedure, determine delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to the relation of terminal, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction.
The description of deducing pattern from judgement and the emulation of above-mentioned LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting scheduling relation can be found out: when the quantity of receiving station and terminal is when more than one, pattern is deduced in emulation can comprise seven kinds, respectively the emulation deduction process of each emulation deduction pattern is explained below:
Process is deduced in the emulation of the long-term ADP pattern of Yi, receiving station:
A, inner at long-term supply of material point, LNG material according to from gas field, natural gas treatment plant, natural gas liquefaction device, storage tank, shipment facility be to the sequential flowing of long-term supply of material cargo ship boatload; Synchronous therewith, the cargo ship clean ship of supplying for a long time carries out activity according to the order that enters outport, berth, inner harbor, connection shipment facility.Wherein, natural gas treatment plant and natural gas liquefaction device can be considered a certain proportion of loss, in entering the operation in outport and berth, inner harbor, can be subject to the impact of the uncertain factors such as inclement weather and tidal conditions, and LNG shipment speed has certain undulatory property.
B, receiving station is inner, LNG material is according to from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, BOG(boil-off gas) treatment facility is to LNG output pump, again from LNG output pump, LNG gasifier, by multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users and plant gas three class gaseous state users, and the sequential flowing of the liquid outward transport from LNG output pump to tank car.In flow process, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, handle accordingly, between facility and storage tank, judge whether " forcing tank " unloading a ship, between storage tank and LNG output pump, judge whether " protect for " and whether " slack tank ", result comprises:
If during cargo ship discharging, storage tank residue tank holds the LNG material that is not enough to store whole ship, produce " forcing tank " phenomenon, in simulation result, can export Yi“ receiving station and force tank detail " form, record the detailed datas such as the ID numbering of receiving station, the ID numbering that the moment, the finish time, cargo ship occur, ship type, can also record and force tank ship number, on average force tank duration and always force tank duration, cargo ship must be waited for until " forcing tank " phenomenon is eliminated can start discharging simultaneously;
If storage tank is " slack tank " (arriving low warning liquid level parameter), in simulation result, can export one " the low liquid level early warning of website " form, the ID numbering of the low warning liquid level warning of record generation receiving station, the detailed datas such as the zero hour, the finish time of reporting to the police, LNG output pump must be closed down until the elimination of " slack tank " phenomenon can reopen;
If storage tank arrives " warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter ", need to start different brackets " protect and supply ", in simulation result, can export one " segment record during website slack tank " and " website is protected the civilian form of closing down ", record the detailed service datas such as time of fire alarming and slack tank time.LNG output pump must be according to " speed control be closed down in classification ", principle, control LNG output pump and successively close down with tank car, plant gas user, industrial user until the multi-purpose station pipeline being connected between town users.
Synchronous therewith, cargo ship boatload according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connect the sequence of operation activity of the facility of unloading a ship.Wherein, after entering berth, inner harbor, cargo ship judges whether operation simultaneously according to harbour quantity and function: as an only single cargo ship discharging of harbour; As two the cargo ship dischargings simultaneously of two harbours.In entering the operation in outport and berth, inner harbor, can be subject to the uncertain elements such as inclement weather and tidal conditions, and the impact of running time restriction in the daytime.
In the daytime running time restriction refers to that cargo ship boatload can only enter berth, inner harbor within the stipulated time in the daytime from outport.Approach and the time sequencing of alongside operation in, produce boisterous uncertain impact and the rule limits of restriction in the daytime, only within the scope of binding hours in the daytime, allow the cargo ship alongside of approaching.Wherein, there is certain undulatory property in the tank car entrucking speed of receiving station, cargo ship handling ship's speed rate; The output pump of receiving station, the outer transfer device reliability of gasifier exist uncertain.
The downstream user of c, receiving station use gas demand, constantly issue the LNG gasifier of ，You receiving station of receiving station and the supply that LNG output pump mates with the time interval (such as 30 minutes) of setting; If receiving station's deliverability does not reach, according to the LNG supply amount supply of the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or restriction, according to guarding against tank in storage tank dynamic monitoring index, hold the description execution meeting in the demand critical value of downstream therebetween.Wherein, hour can there is certain undulatory property by gas speed in downstream user use gas.
D, carry out the cargo ship of long-term ADP, commute on the double way channel of long-term supply of material Dian Zhi receiving station.When arriving at long-term supply of material point and leaving receiving station, the state of the cargo ship of supplying is for a long time " clean ship "; When leaving long-term supply of material point and arriving at receiving station, the state of the cargo ship of supplying is for a long time " boatload ".
The emulation of the default stock ADP of Er, receiving station pattern is deduced
Due to the emulation of the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern, to deduce process identical with the emulation deduction process of receiving station long-term ADP pattern, therefore only need the information of the information of the point of the supply of material for a long time and long-term supply of material cargo ship, replace with the information of default stock point and the information of default stock cargo ship, then according to the step a～d in above-mentioned receiving station long-term ADP mode simulation deduction process, carry out emulation deduction, result is deduced in the emulation that can obtain the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern.The cargo ship of supplying for a long time is in addition identical cargo ship with stock cargo ship, and parameter setting is also identical.
Process is deduced in the emulation of the dynamic spot mode of San, receiving station:
A, the long-term ADP of basis, the default stock implementation status of ADP and the actual demand of downstream user use gas, emulation module 22, according to the comparing result of the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index, sends dynamic stock request; The dynamically realization of stock request and satisfied, need certain process and time, because system is being sent once dynamic stock request until in its satisfied process, also can constantly produce other dynamic stock request, therefore can set emulation module 22 only after once dynamically stock request is met, the emulation that just can start a new round according to latest development is deduced, during for any response that begs off from doing of other dynamic stock.
B, dynamically stock delivery point, according to dynamically stock request, is only determined dynamically delivery amount and the time of delivery of stock, and dynamically stock delivery point is undefined position and navigation channel, does not also embody internal process; Due in reality dynamically stock put indefinitely, corresponding navigation channel attribute is also difficult to set, and because the reserved dynamically preparatory period of stock of reality mostly is 2～3 months, therefore, no longer considers the dynamically specific channel problem between stock Dian Yu receiving station.
The cargo ship of c, the dynamic stock of execution transport task is at dynamic commute between Dian Yu receiving station from stock; Arriving at stock when putting and leaving receiving station, the state of stock cargo ship is " clean ship "; Leaving stock when putting and arriving at receiving station, the state of stock cargo ship is " boatload ".
Between the default station of Si, receiving station, transport the emulation of ADP pattern and deduce process:
Between a, the default station of input, between the delivery receiving station of transhipment, default station, between the default station of the receiving station that receives, transferring ship, transportation navigation channel, navigation channel weather conditions, receiving station of transhipment, transport ADP information; Transferring ship is two kinds of ships that function is different from long-term supply of material cargo ship in addition, has independently parameter setting and statistics.
In the delivery receiving station of b, transhipment between default station, LNG material is from the storage tank of delivery receiving station, shipment facility, harbour to transferring ship until reach the sequential flowing of boatload; Synchronous therewith, unloaded transferring ship is loaded the sequence of operation activity of facility onto ship according to the outport, berth, inner harbor, harbour, the connection that enter delivery receiving station.
C, carry out the transferring ship of transhipment between default station, on the double way channel of transporting receiving station between delivery receiving station to default station, come and go, arrive when transporting receiving station and leaving delivery receiving station between default station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; Leaving when transporting receiving station between default station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.
Wu, receiving station dynamically transports the emulation of pattern and deduces process between station:
A, startup be running preferable procedure dynamically, the selected delivery receiving station as request receiving station between dynamic station, and the information of corresponding transferring ship, transportation navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions;
B, inner in selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship is according to the sequence of operation activity that enters outport, berth, inner harbor, harbour, connection shipment facility, LNG material is according to from dynamic delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to the dynamic sequential flowing of stock cargo ship boatload, dynamically between station, transporting inside, request receiving station according to from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, output pump, gasifier, multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users, plant gas user's three class gaseous state users and the sequential flowing of the liquid outward transport of tank car.
C, carry out the dynamically transferring ship of transhipment between station, in delivery receiving station, to dynamically transporting between station on the double way channel at request receiving station, come and go, arrive when dynamically transporting request receiving station between station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; Leaving when transporting request receiving station between dynamic station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.
D, according to the actual demand ，Ge receiving station of the ADP emulated execution situation of each long-term supply of material point and downstream user use gas according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, send transhipment between the dynamic station of receiving station and ask.The dynamically realization of transhipment request and satisfied between station, need certain process and time, because system is being sent the request of once dynamically transporting between station until in its satisfied process, also can constantly produce transhipment request between other dynamic station, therefore can set emulation module 22 only after once dynamically transhipment request is met between station, the emulation that just can start a new round according to latest development is deduced, during for any response that begs off from doing of transhipment between other dynamic station.
Process is deduced in the emulation of six, transporting ADP pattern between the default station of terminal:
Between a, the default station of input, between the terminal of transhipment, default station, between the default station of weather conditions, terminal in delivery receiving station, transferring ship, transportation navigation channel and the navigation channel of transhipment, transport ADP information;
In the delivery receiving station of b, transhipment between default station, transferring ship clean ship is according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connecting the sequence of operation activity of loading facility onto ship, LNG material is according to the sequential flowing from transferring ship boatload between delivery receiving station storage tank, the extremely default station of shipment facility, and between default station, inside, transhipment station is according to the order activity from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, the outward transport of tank car liquid state.
C, carry out the transferring ship of transhipment between default station, on the double way channel at transhipment station between delivery receiving station to default station, come and go, when arriving between default station transhipment station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; When leaving between default station transhipment station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.
Seven, terminal is dynamically transported the emulation deduction process of pattern between station:
A, start the preferable procedure that dynamically turns round between station, selected as dynamically asking the delivery receiving station of terminal between station, and corresponding transferring ship, the information of transportation navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions;
B, inner in selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship is according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connecting the sequence of operation activity of loading facility onto ship, LNG material, according to from transporting delivery receiving station storage tank between dynamic station, loading facility onto ship to the sequential flowing of transferring ship boatload, is transported the terminal inside of request according to the sequential flowing from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, the outward transport of tank car liquid state between dynamically standing.
The transferring ship of transporting between c, the dynamic station of execution, round on the double way channel of transporting request terminal between the extremely dynamic station of delivery receiving station, when between arrival is dynamically stood, transhipment is asked terminal and left delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; When leaving between dynamic station transhipment request terminal and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.
D, conditions of demand according to each receiving station to the ADP emulated execution situation of terminal and downstream use gas, and terminal is according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, send transhipment request between the dynamic station of terminal, the dynamically realization of transhipment request and satisfied between station, need certain process and time, because terminal sends the request of once dynamically transporting between station until in its satisfied process, also can constantly produce transhipment request between other dynamic station, therefore can set emulation module 22 only after once dynamically transhipment request is met between station, just can start according to latest development the emulation deduction of a new round, during this time for transporting any response that begs off from doing between other dynamic station.
Above-mentioned receiving station dynamically transports in the emulation deduction process of pattern between the dynamic station of transhipment pattern and terminal between station, and the dynamic running preferable procedure of mentioning comprises the following steps (as shown in Figure 7):
I, for the receiving station or the terminal that propose dynamically to transport between station request, calculate in real time three parameters: storage tank residual capacity deducts the required time M in the corresponding downstream of low warning liquid level, next time in default long-term ADP information cargo ship to transferring ship in ETA estimated time of arrival N or the default ADP information of terminal to ETA estimated time of arrival N, and maintained duration L corresponding to storage tank request transhipment liquid level;
Each receiving station beyond request receiving station or terminal whether satisfy condition " M < N and M <=L " is dynamically transported in II, judgement between station; If do not met, can not occur between dynamic station, transport request receiving station or terminal dynamically stand between the activity of transhipment; If met, reach as between dynamic station, transport request receiving station or terminal dynamically stand between the sufficient and necessary condition of transhipment, carry out next step;
III, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station to meet the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
IV, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select to meet in condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, respectively with the to be screened receiving station that respectively delivers to dynamically transporting the haulage time T of request receiving station or terminal between station 1, T 2, T 3, T n< M is condition, filters out the haulage time and delivery receiving station corresponding to difference thereof that are less than M, wherein; Subscript 1,2,3 ... n is the numbering of each receiving station of delivery.
VI, the delivery receiving station of remaining haulage time and their correspondences thereof after screening relatively, add minimum standard shipping rate for according to LNG delivery price, preferably determines the receiving station that optionally delivers;
If VII above-mentioned steps VI) finished, still have and be no less than two delivery receiving stations, select the delivery receiving station of short correspondence of transportation voyage, now remaining delivery receiving station is unique, and this delivery receiving station is exactly the delivery receiving station determining by preferable procedure, conduct is dynamically transported request receiving station or terminal between station.
At the above-mentioned emulation module 22 that starts each time, carry out automatic simulation while deducing, the accuracy of deducing in order to improve emulation, can set and repeat to deduce repeatedly, such as 50 times, or more or number of times still less, provides the average result of homogenization after repeatedly calculating.
In above-mentioned emulation deduction process, the preferably even probability distribution function simulation of the present invention tank car entrucking speed, cargo ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, the inclement weather impact of rectangle probability distribution function simulation harbour, the reliability of normal state probability distribution function simulation LNG output pump and the outer transfer device of LNG gasifier, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship and transferring ship are incured loss through delay and tank car filling time of arrival to ETA estimated time of arrival, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship, interval time of arrival of transferring ship and tank car, Poisson probability distribution function simulate ship, transferring ship and the tank car arriving amt at the appointed time, even probability distribution function simulation downstream user use gas hour with gas rate fluctuation, also adopt the queue discipline of wait system, First Come First Served simultaneously.The using method of above-mentioned various functions is all disclosed, and the present invention is introduced in the deduction process of the various simulation models of the present invention.In above steps, also can adopt in addition other method outside above-mentioned specified function method to simulate deduction, not repeat them here.
5) the comprehensive analysis with the emulation of index of output network type LNG industrial chain deduced result
After emulation is deduced and is finished, the emulation of above-mentioned seven kinds of patterns that Simulation System Platform 2 obtains emulation module 22 is deduced result and in index and report display module 23, is shown output, and emulation is deduced result and comprised: relation and the corresponding information of supplying for a long time between Dian, receiving station and cargo ship, relation and corresponding information between default stock Dian, receiving station and cargo ship, the receiving station of transhipment between default station, relation and corresponding information between delivery receiving station and transferring ship, the receiving station of dynamically transporting between station, relation and corresponding information between delivery receiving station and transferring ship, the terminal of transhipment and relation and the corresponding information between delivery receiving station and transferring ship between default station, the terminal of dynamically transporting between station, relation and corresponding information between delivery receiving station and transferring ship, high-low liquid level of storage tank in each receiving station and terminal and time-space attribute statistics and the expense statistical report form of forcing tank-slack tank to report to the police, generate the relation between supply and demand of the network-type LNG industrial chain in the dry run time and comprise long-term payment LNG, default LNG stock, default LNG transhipment, dynamically LNG stock and dynamically LNG transhipment batch, time window distribution etc.It should be noted that if the various emulation deduction patterns of foregoing description are not activated, the emulation of associative mode is deduced result and is output as sky.
6) Simulation System Platform 2 is deduced result by emulation and is deposited analytical database 24 in, and is transferred to trade management platform 3; By trade management platform 3, generate following three months to supply and demand prediction and the operation plan of the network structure LNG industrial chain in one-year age, and send to the GMS terminal ，You Ge receiving station of each receiving station and terminal and the GMS of terminal to generate the operation plan of our station by network.
In above-described embodiment, can between step 5) and step 6), can increase by a step, the emulation of transhipment between dynamic stock or dynamic station be deduced to result and verify, if select this step, one of three kinds of methods below adopting:
1. for the emulation of dynamic spot mode, deduce result
The emulation of the dynamic spot mode of step 5) is deduced to the dynamic stock time window in result, distribution changes into stock ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database 21, then carry out being verified as the emulation deduction of object;
If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically stock index, it is correct that result is deduced in the emulation that can confirm the dynamic spot mode of step 5), enters step 6);
Otherwise return to step 2), adjusting initial parameter database 21 information (is mainly to check whether to have Introduced cases mistake or carry out some about functional modification, such as dynamic stock is by the ship appearance of cargo ship etc.) after, start the emulation that emulation module 22 carries out a new round and deduce.
2. for the emulation of transporting pattern between dynamic station, deduce result
Step 5) is dynamically transported between station between the dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result and transported time window, distribution changes into and between station, transports ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database 21, then carry out being verified as the emulation deduction of object;
If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) dynamic station between transport pattern emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjusting initial parameter database information (is mainly to check whether to have Introduced cases mistake or carry out some about functional modification, such as the dynamic transhipment ship appearance of transferring ship etc. between station) after, startup emulation module 22 carries out the emulation of a new round deduces.
3. for existing dynamic spot mode, there is again the emulation of the pattern of transporting between dynamic station to deduce result
The emulation of the dynamic spot mode of step 5) is deduced to the dynamic stock time window in result and dynamically between station, transported between the dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result and transport time window, all distribute and change into the ADP of receiving station, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database 21, then carry out being verified as the emulation of object and deduce;
If emulation is deduced in result and both no longer produced dynamically stock index, also no longer produce dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjusting initial parameter database information (is mainly to check whether to have Introduced cases mistake or carry out some about functional modification, such as the dynamic transhipment ship appearance of transferring ship etc. between station) after, startup emulation module 22 carries out the emulation of a new round deduces.
The through transport alliance index of the initial parameter list after comprising in above-mentioned analytical database 24 each emulation deduction result, particularly confirming and corresponding long-term supply of material point, stock Dian, receiving station, terminal, cargo ship and transferring ship, for artificial, look back and historical data statistical study, form manual analysis experience.
The various embodiments described above are only for illustrating the present invention, and wherein the structure of each parts, connected mode etc. all can change to some extent, and every equivalents of carrying out on the basis of technical solution of the present invention and improvement, all should not get rid of outside protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. a network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method, it comprises the following steps:
1) a network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching system is set, it comprises Yi Zongtiao center and a trade management platform, and one connects the Simulation System Platform of the two; Described Zong Tiao center connects the DCS of each receiving station and terminal by network, described trade management platform connects the GMS of each receiving station and terminal by network; Described Simulation System Platform comprises initial parameter database, is built-in with emulation module, index and report display module and the analytical database of the discrete emulation deduction program that combines Monte carlo algorithm and operational research waiting line theory;
2) in the initial parameter database of Simulation System Platform, various raw data have been pre-entered, it comprises the supply of material information of each long-term supply of material point to corresponding receiving station, each receiving station is year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information to outer defeated, the liquid outward transport of tank car of the rock gas of downstream user and user to supply of material information, receiving station and the terminal of corresponding terminal, in each receiving station gathering by each DCS and terminal, the initial liquid level of each storage tank and total tank hold information, and storage tank dynamic monitoring index;
3) Simulation System Platform collects by the DNS of each receiving station and terminal the data message upgrading in described initial parameter database, it comprises that the real-time level information of each storage tank arriving by DCS real-time collecting and total tank hold information, the up-to-date weather forecast of the inclement weather information in harbour and navigation channel, outer defeated, the liquid outward transport of tank car of rock gas and user's year, month, day, hour demand forecasting information, the gas contract of purchasing of current signing, the fluctuating range with gas demand and hour flow of the up-to-date proposition of downstream user;
4) Simulation System Platform starts emulation module and carries out emulation deduction, and it comprises the following steps:
1. emulation module reads in the data message after initial parameter database update, the long-term ADP of scanning fixed time Nei Ge receiving station, if which receiving station does not have long-term ADP, program is deduced in the emulation that stops Dui Gai receiving station; Otherwise enter next step;
2. which kind of emulation deduction pattern emulation module judgement takes carry out corresponding emulation deduction:
If the ADP of long-term supply of material point has only selected in A receiving station, according to " the long-term ADP pattern of receiving station ", determine long-term supply of material point and corresponding long-term supply of material cargo ship, according to long-term supply of material point, the supply relation of cargo ship and receiving station is carried out emulation deduction for a long time;
If the supply of material from stock has also been selected by B receiving station, further judge it is default stock ADP, or dynamically from stock:
If default stock ADP, according to " the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern ", determines default stock dot information and corresponding cargo ship, according to the relation of default stock point, cargo ship and receiving station, carry out emulation deduction;
If dynamically from stock, according to " the dynamic spot mode of receiving station ", carry out emulation deduction according to the relation of dynamic stock point, cargo ship and the receiving station in uncertain source;
If transhipment pattern between station has also been selected by C receiving station, further judgement is to transport ADP between default station, or dynamically transhipment between station:
If transport ADP between default station,, according to " ADP pattern is transported between default station by receiving station ", determine delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction;
If dynamically transhipment between station, according to " receiving station is transhipment pattern between station dynamically ", first start LNG and dynamically transport preferable procedure, determine delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction;
D, for terminal, if receiving station and terminal ADP are empty, do not move the relevant emulation of terminal and deduce, if transported between the station of terminal selection Liao Yu receiving station, further judgement is to transport ADP between the default station of terminal, or dynamically transhipment between station of terminal:
If transport ADP between the default station of terminal,, according to " terminal is transported ADP pattern between default station ", determine delivery receiving station and transferring ship information, according to the relation of receiving station, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction;
If dynamically transhipment between station of terminal, according to " terminal is transhipment pattern between station dynamically ", first start LNG and dynamically transport preferable procedure, determine delivery receiving station's information and corresponding transferring ship information, then according to the relation of terminal, transferring ship and delivery receiving station, carry out emulation deduction;
5), after emulation is deduced and finished, the emulation of the various patterns that Simulation System Platform obtains emulation module is deduced result and is shown that output is in index and report display module;
6) Simulation System Platform is deduced result by emulation and is deposited analytical database in, and is transferred to trade management platform; By trade management platform, generate following three months to supply and demand prediction and the operation plan of the network structure LNG industrial chain in one-year age, and send to the GMS terminal ，You Ge receiving station of each receiving station and terminal and the GMS of terminal to generate the operation plan of our station by network.
2. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that: in the emulation that increases a pair of dynamic stock between step 5) and step 6) and dynamically transport between station, deduce the step that result is verified, if select this step, adopt one of following three kinds of methods:
1. for the emulation of dynamic spot mode, deduce result
The emulation of the dynamic spot mode of step 5) is deduced to the dynamic stock time window in result, distribution changes into stock ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as the emulation deduction of object; If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically stock index, it is correct that result is deduced in the emulation that can confirm the dynamic spot mode of step 5), enters step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust after initial parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round;
2. for the emulation of transporting pattern between dynamic station, deduce result
Step 5) is dynamically transported between station between the dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result and transported time window, distribution changes into and between station, transports ADP, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as the emulation deduction of object; If emulation is deduced in result and no longer produced dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) dynamic station between transport pattern emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust after initial parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round;
3. for existing dynamic spot mode, there is again the emulation of the pattern of transporting between dynamic station to deduce result
The emulation of the dynamic spot mode of step 5) is deduced to the dynamic stock time window in result and dynamically between station, transported between the dynamic station in mode simulation deduction result and transport time window, all distribute and change into the ADP of receiving station, according to the time, distribute and insert original long-term ADP, and upgrade accordingly the information of initial parameter database, then carry out being verified as the emulation of object and deduce; If emulation is deduced in result and both no longer produced dynamically stock index, also no longer produce dynamically and transport index between station, description of step 5) emulation to deduce result correct, enter step 6); Otherwise return to step 2), adjust after initial parameter database information, start the emulation deduction that emulation module carries out a new round.
3. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that: the storage tank dynamic monitoring index described step 2) comprises:
A, to force tank ratio parameter, its span be tankage 85%～95%;
B, high warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 85%～90%;
C, low warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 8%～15%;
D, warning tank appearance meet downstream demand critical value parameter, and its time span is 48 hours～72 hours; Warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter and coordinates with low warning liquid level parameter, and downstream use gas demand priority level is protected for problem and processed;
E, request stock liquid level parameter, its time span is generally 72 hours～and 150 hours; When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request stock liquid level parameter, system is sent once stock request;
F) between request station, transport liquid level parameter, its time span is 60 hours～100 hours, when storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request transhipment liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically transhipment request between station.
4. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that: the storage tank dynamic monitoring index described step 2) comprises:
A, to force tank ratio parameter, its span be tankage 85%～95%;
B, high warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 85%～90%;
C, low warning liquid level parameter, its span is tankage 8%～15%;
D, warning tank appearance meet downstream demand critical value parameter, and its time span is 48 hours～72 hours; Warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter and coordinates with low warning liquid level parameter, and downstream use gas demand priority level is protected for problem and processed;
E, request stock liquid level parameter, its time span is generally 72 hours～and 150 hours; When storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request stock liquid level parameter, system is sent once stock request;
F) between request station, transport liquid level parameter, its time span is 60 hours～100 hours, when storage tank current residual tank holds the difference that tank corresponding to low warning liquid level parameter holds, when the duration that can maintain according to current time downstream user use gas speed is less than request transhipment liquid level parameter, system is sent once dynamically transhipment request between station.
5. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1 or 2 or 3 or 4, is characterized in that: the step of described step 4) 2. in, the deduction process that pattern is deduced in emulation comprises:
Process is deduced in the emulation of the long-term ADP pattern of Yi, receiving station:
A, inner at long-term supply of material point, LNG material according to from gas field, natural gas treatment plant, natural gas liquefaction device, storage tank, shipment facility be to the sequential flowing of long-term supply of material cargo ship boatload; Synchronous therewith, the cargo ship clean ship of supplying for a long time carries out activity according to the order that enters outport, berth, inner harbor, connection shipment facility;
B, receiving station is inner, LNG material is according to from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, BOG treatment facility to LNG output pump, again from LNG output pump, LNG gasifier, by multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users and plant gas three class gaseous state users, and the sequential flowing of the liquid outward transport from LNG output pump to tank car; In flow process, according to storage tank dynamic monitoring index, handle accordingly, between facility and storage tank, judge whether " forcing tank " unloading a ship, between storage tank and LNG output pump, judge whether " protect for " and whether " slack tank ", result comprises:
If during cargo ship discharging, storage tank residue tank holds the LNG material that is not enough to store whole ship, produce " forcing tank " phenomenon, in simulation result, export Yi“ receiving station and force tank detail " form, record the detailed datas such as the ID numbering of receiving station, the ID numbering that the moment, the finish time, cargo ship occur, ship type, can also record and force tank ship number, on average force tank duration and always force tank duration, cargo ship must be waited for until " forcing tank " phenomenon is eliminated can start discharging simultaneously;
If storage tank is " slack tank ", in simulation result, export one " the low liquid level early warning of website " form, there is the ID numbering of the receiving station of low warning liquid level warning, the detailed datas such as the zero hour, the finish time of reporting to the police in record, LNG output pump must be closed down until the elimination of " slack tank " phenomenon can reopen;
If storage tank arrives " warning tank appearance meets downstream demand critical value parameter ", need to start different brackets " protect and supply ", in simulation result, export one " segment record during website slack tank " and " website is protected the civilian form of closing down ", record the detailed service datas such as time of fire alarming and slack tank time.LNG output pump must, according to " speed control is closed down in classification ", be controlled LNG output pump and successively close down with tank car, plant gas user, industrial user until the multi-purpose station pipeline being connected between town users;
Synchronous therewith, cargo ship boatload according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connect the sequence of operation activity of the facility of unloading a ship, after cargo ship enters berth, inner harbor, according to harbour quantity and function, judge whether operation simultaneously: as an only single cargo ship discharging of harbour; As two the cargo ship dischargings simultaneously of two harbours; In entering the operation in outport and berth, inner harbor, can be subject to the uncertain elements such as inclement weather and tidal conditions, and the impact of running time restriction in the daytime;
The downstream user of c, receiving station use gas demand, constantly issue receiving station, the supply that the LNG gasifier of receiving station and LNG output pump mate with the time interval of setting; If receiving station's deliverability does not reach, according to the LNG supply amount supply of the bottleneck ability of supply equipment or restriction, according to guarding against tank appearance in storage tank dynamic monitoring index, meet downstream demand critical value execution therebetween;
D, carry out the cargo ship of long-term ADP, commute on the double way channel of long-term supply of material Dian Zhi receiving station, when arriving at long-term supply of material point and leaving receiving station, the state of the cargo ship of supplying is for a long time " clean ship "; When leaving long-term supply of material point and arriving at receiving station, the state of the cargo ship of supplying is for a long time " boatload ";
Process is deduced in the emulation of the default stock ADP of Er, receiving station pattern:
The emulation deduction process of the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern is identical with the emulation deduction process of the long-term ADP pattern of receiving station, only need the information of the information of the point of the supply of material for a long time and long-term supply of material cargo ship, replace with the information of default stock point and the information of default stock cargo ship, then according to the step a～d in receiving station's long-term ADP mode simulation deduction process, carry out emulation deduction, result is deduced in the emulation that can obtain the default stock ADP of receiving station pattern;
Process is deduced in the emulation of the dynamic spot mode of San, receiving station:
A, the long-term ADP of basis, the default stock implementation status of ADP and the actual demand of downstream user use gas, emulation module is according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, send dynamic stock request, and setting only, after once dynamically stock request is met, just can be deduced according to the emulation of a latest development startup new round;
B, dynamically dynamically stock request of stock delivery point basis, only definite dynamically delivery amount and the time of delivery of stock;
The cargo ship of c, the dynamic stock of execution transport task is at dynamic commute between Dian Yu receiving station from stock; Arriving at stock when putting and leaving receiving station, the state of stock cargo ship is " clean ship "; Leaving stock when putting and arriving at receiving station, the state of stock cargo ship is " boatload ".
Between the default station of Si, receiving station, transport the emulation of ADP pattern and deduce process:
Between a, the default station of input, between the delivery receiving station of transhipment, default station, between the default station of the receiving station that receives, transferring ship, transhipment navigation channel, navigation channel weather conditions, receiving station of transhipment, transport ADP information;
In the delivery receiving station of b, transhipment between default station, LNG material is from the storage tank of delivery receiving station, shipment facility, harbour to transferring ship until reach the sequential flowing of boatload; Synchronous therewith, unloaded transferring ship is loaded the sequence of operation activity of facility onto ship according to the outport, berth, inner harbor, harbour, the connection that enter delivery receiving station;
C, carry out the transferring ship of transhipment between default station, on the double way channel of transporting receiving station between delivery receiving station to default station, come and go, arrive when transporting receiving station and leaving delivery receiving station between default station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; Leaving when transporting receiving station between default station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship.
Wu, receiving station dynamically transports the emulation of pattern and deduces process between station:
A, startup be transhipment preferable procedure dynamically, the selected delivery receiving station as transporting request receiving station between dynamic station, and the information of corresponding transferring ship, transportation navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions;
B, inner in selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship is according to the sequence of operation activity that enters outport, berth, inner harbor, harbour, connection shipment facility, LNG material is according to from dynamic delivery receiving station storage tank, shipment facility to the dynamic sequential flowing of stock cargo ship boatload, dynamically between station, transporting inside, request receiving station according to from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, output pump, gasifier, multi-purpose station pipeline to industrial user, town users, plant gas user's three class gaseous state users and the sequential flowing of the liquid outward transport of tank car;
C, carry out the dynamically transferring ship of transhipment between station, in delivery receiving station, to dynamically transporting between station on the double way channel at request receiving station, come and go, arrive when dynamically transporting request receiving station between station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; Leaving when transporting request receiving station between dynamic station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship;
D, the ADP emulated execution situation of putting according to each long-term supply of material and the actual demand of downstream user use gas, each receiving station is according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, send transhipment request between the dynamic station of receiving station, and setting emulation module is only after once dynamically between station, transhipment request is met, and the emulation that just meeting starts a new round according to latest development is deduced;
Process is deduced in the emulation of six, transporting ADP pattern between the default station of terminal:
Between a, the default station of input, between the terminal of transhipment, default station, the delivery receiving station of transhipment, transferring ship, transportation navigation channel, the weather conditions in navigation channel, terminal are transported ADP information between default station;
In the delivery receiving station of b, transhipment between default station, transferring ship clean ship is according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connecting the sequence of operation activity of loading facility onto ship, LNG material is according to the sequential flowing from transferring ship boatload between delivery receiving station storage tank, the extremely default station of shipment facility, and between default station, inside, transhipment station is according to the order activity from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, the outward transport of tank car liquid state;
C, carry out the transferring ship of transhipment between default station, on the double way channel at transhipment station between delivery receiving station to default station, come and go, when arriving between default station transhipment station and leaving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; When leaving between default station transhipment station and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship;
Seven, terminal is dynamically transported the emulation deduction process of pattern between station:
A, start the preferable procedure that dynamically turns round between station, selected as dynamically asking the delivery receiving station of terminal between station, and corresponding transferring ship, the information of transportation navigation channel and navigation channel weather conditions;
B, inner in selected delivery receiving station, transferring ship clean ship is according to entering outport, berth, inner harbor, connecting the sequence of operation activity of loading facility onto ship, LNG material, according to from transporting delivery receiving station storage tank between dynamic station, loading facility onto ship to the sequential flowing of transferring ship boatload, is transported the terminal inside of request according to the sequential flowing from the facility of unloading a ship, storage tank, the outward transport of tank car liquid state between dynamically standing;
The transferring ship of transporting between c, the dynamic station of execution, round on the double way channel of transporting request terminal between the extremely dynamic station of delivery receiving station, when between arrival is dynamically stood, transhipment is asked terminal and left delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is boatload; When leaving between dynamic station transhipment request terminal and arriving delivery receiving station, the state of transferring ship is clean ship;
D, the ADP emulated execution situation of putting according to each long-term supply of material and the conditions of demand of downstream use gas, each terminal is according to the tank level information of Real-time Collection and storage tank dynamic monitoring index comparing result, send transhipment request between the dynamic station of terminal, and setting emulation module is only after once dynamically between station, transhipment request is met, and the emulation that just meeting starts a new round according to latest development is deduced.
6. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 1 or 2 or 3 or 4, is characterized in that: described dynamic transhipment preferable procedure comprises the following steps:
I, for the receiving station or the terminal that propose dynamically to transport between station request, calculate in real time three parameters: storage tank residual capacity deducts the required time M in the corresponding downstream of low warning liquid level, next time in default long-term ADP information cargo ship to ETA estimated time of arrival N, or in the default ADP information of terminal transferring ship to ETA estimated time of arrival N, and maintained duration L corresponding to storage tank request transhipment liquid level;
Each receiving station beyond request receiving station or terminal whether satisfy condition " M < N and M <=L " is dynamically transported in II, judgement between station; If do not met, can not occur between dynamic station, transport request receiving station or terminal dynamically stand between the activity of transhipment; If met, reach as between dynamic station, transport request receiving station or terminal dynamically stand between the sufficient and necessary condition of transhipment, carry out next step;
III, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station to meet the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
IV, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select to meet in condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, respectively with the to be screened receiving station that respectively delivers to dynamically transporting the haulage time T of request receiving station or terminal between station 1, T 2, T 3, T n< M is condition, filters out the haulage time and delivery receiving station corresponding to difference thereof that are less than M, wherein; Subscript 1,2,3 ... n is the numbering of each receiving station of delivery.
VI, the delivery receiving station of remaining haulage time and their correspondences thereof after screening relatively, add minimum standard shipping rate for according to LNG delivery price, preferably determines the receiving station that optionally delivers;
If VII above-mentioned steps VI) finished, still have and be no less than two delivery receiving stations, select the delivery receiving station of short correspondence of transportation voyage, now remaining delivery receiving station is unique, and this delivery receiving station is exactly the delivery receiving station determining by preferable procedure, conduct is dynamically transported request receiving station or terminal between station.
7. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 5, is characterized in that: described dynamic transhipment preferable procedure comprises the following steps:
I, for the receiving station or the terminal that propose dynamically to transport between station request, calculate in real time three parameters: storage tank residual capacity deducts the required time M in the corresponding downstream of low warning liquid level, next time in default long-term ADP information cargo ship to ETA estimated time of arrival N, or in the default ADP information of terminal transferring ship to ETA estimated time of arrival N, and maintained duration L corresponding to storage tank request transhipment liquid level;
Each receiving station beyond request receiving station or terminal whether satisfy condition " M < N and M <=L " is dynamically transported in II, judgement between station; If do not met, can not occur between dynamic station, transport request receiving station or terminal dynamically stand between the activity of transhipment; If met, reach as between dynamic station, transport request receiving station or terminal dynamically stand between the sufficient and necessary condition of transhipment, carry out next step;
III, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station to meet the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
IV, use transferring ship charging condition are screened each receiving station in the optional receiving station's group of delivering; Select to meet in condition Wei Gai receiving station of delivery receiving station the difference that storage tank residual capacity deducts low warning liquid level and be greater than transferring ship capacity;
V, optional transferring ship is preferably calculated, respectively with the to be screened receiving station that respectively delivers to dynamically transporting the haulage time T of request receiving station or terminal between station 1, T 2, T 3, T n< M is condition, filters out the haulage time and delivery receiving station corresponding to difference thereof that are less than M, wherein; Subscript 1,2,3 ... n is the numbering of each receiving station of delivery.
VI, the delivery receiving station of remaining haulage time and their correspondences thereof after screening relatively, add minimum standard shipping rate for according to LNG delivery price, preferably determines the receiving station that optionally delivers;
If VII above-mentioned steps VI) finished, still have and be no less than two delivery receiving stations, select the delivery receiving station of short correspondence of transportation voyage, now remaining delivery receiving station is unique, and this delivery receiving station is exactly the delivery receiving station determining by preferable procedure, conduct is dynamically transported request receiving station or terminal between station.
8. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as described in claim 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 7, it is characterized in that: adopt even probability distribution function simulation tank car entrucking speed, cargo ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, the inclement weather impact of rectangle probability distribution function simulation harbour, the reliability of normal state probability distribution function simulation LNG output pump and the outer transfer device of LNG gasifier, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship and transferring ship are incured loss through delay and tank car filling time of arrival to ETA estimated time of arrival, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship, interval time of arrival of transferring ship and tank car, Poisson probability distribution function simulate ship, transferring ship and the tank car arriving amt at the appointed time, even probability distribution function simulation downstream user use gas hour with gas rate fluctuation, also adopt the queue discipline of wait system, First Come First Served simultaneously.
9. as right is wanted a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as described in 5, it is characterized in that: adopt even probability distribution function simulation tank car entrucking speed, cargo ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, the inclement weather impact of rectangle probability distribution function simulation harbour, the reliability of normal state probability distribution function simulation LNG output pump and the outer transfer device of LNG gasifier, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship and transferring ship are incured loss through delay and tank car filling time of arrival to ETA estimated time of arrival, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship, interval time of arrival of transferring ship and tank car, Poisson probability distribution function simulate ship, transferring ship and the tank car arriving amt at the appointed time, even probability distribution function simulation downstream user use gas hour with gas rate fluctuation, also adopt the queue discipline of wait system, First Come First Served simultaneously.
10. a kind of network-type LNG industrial chain integrated forecasting dispatching method as claimed in claim 6, it is characterized in that: adopt even probability distribution function simulation tank car entrucking speed, cargo ship and transferring ship handling ship's speed rate, the inclement weather impact of rectangle probability distribution function simulation harbour, the reliability of normal state probability distribution function simulation LNG output pump and the outer transfer device of LNG gasifier, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship and transferring ship are incured loss through delay and tank car filling time of arrival to ETA estimated time of arrival, negative exponent probability distribution function simulate ship, interval time of arrival of transferring ship and tank car, Poisson probability distribution function simulate ship, transferring ship and the tank car arriving amt at the appointed time, even probability distribution function simulation downstream user use gas hour with gas rate fluctuation, also adopt the queue discipline of wait system, First Come First Served simultaneously.
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