CN113095581B - Natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method and system - Google Patents

Natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method and system Download PDF

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CN113095581B
CN113095581B CN202110429411.2A CN202110429411A CN113095581B CN 113095581 B CN113095581 B CN 113095581B CN 202110429411 A CN202110429411 A CN 202110429411A CN 113095581 B CN113095581 B CN 113095581B
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刘思捷
张昆
白杨
蔡秋娜
陈中飞
宋慧
赵越
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Electric Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for monitoring and early warning the safety of a natural gas supply chain, wherein the method comprises the following steps: judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value; judging an early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate; judging a supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas; and carrying out early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the liquefied natural gas in the whole province. The scheme improves the risk discrimination capability, and early warning is carried out in advance to reduce the loss.

Description

Natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electric power, in particular to a safety monitoring and early warning method and system for a natural gas supply chain.
Background
In the power industry, power supply is at the middle core of the energy supply chain. The supply and demand conditions of the upstream primary energy greatly influence the condition of power supply and demand balance. With the guidance of national policies and the gradual improvement of infrastructure, the gas demand is rapidly increasing and frequently fluctuating, which brings new challenges to the provincial power energy supply. At present, risk evaluation and early warning for natural gas supply are mainly concentrated on the national level, monitoring of natural gas in the power industry mainly depends on manual tracking analysis and prediction, and the problems of insufficient risk identification capability and delayed early warning release exist.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a method and a system for monitoring and early warning the safety of a natural gas supply chain, wherein a three-level early warning model of an LNG receiving station is established by considering the factors of the inventory days, the air intake saturation, the air supply load degree and the like in the future 30 days; establishing a three-stage early warning model for insufficient gas in consideration of monthly contract gas coverage rate of the gas power plant; considering the available days of the future 30 days of the whole province, establishing a three-level early warning model of the natural gas supply shortage of the whole province; the risk discrimination capability is improved, early warning is carried out in advance, and loss is reduced.
The invention provides a natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a using day value of the stored natural gas of a liquefied natural gas station, an air intake saturation value and an air supply load value of a historical month; judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas use day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value;
acquiring first monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate and second monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate of the gas power plant; judging an early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate;
acquiring the available day value of natural gas of the whole province; judging a supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas;
and carrying out early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the liquefied natural gas in the whole province.
Further, the judging the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the stock natural gas using day value, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value comprises the following steps:
receiving the gas consumption of the current day, the inventory of the current day, the planned air inflow of the current day, the maximum gas supply quantity of the current day, the gas consumption of the historical day, the inventory of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the daily average gas consumption of the historical month sent by the liquefied natural gas station;
establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day according to the gas consumption on the current day, the planned air inflow on the current day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned air inflow on the historical day and the gas consumption on the historical day to obtain the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day;
acquiring actual air inflow of a historical month and planned air inflow of the historical month;
establishing a monthly air inlet saturation model according to the actual air inlet amount of the historical month and the planned air inlet amount of the historical month to obtain an air inlet saturation value of the historical month;
establishing an air supply load degree model according to the air consumption of the current day and the maximum air supply of the current day to obtain an air supply load degree value;
and judging the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value.
Further, the judging the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the stock natural gas using day value, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value comprises the following steps:
if the using day value of the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value all meet a first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a primary early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of using days of the stock natural gas is less than or equal to 1, the intake saturation value of the historical month is less than or equal to 0.8, and the air supply load value is greater than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of days of use of the inventory natural gas is greater than 1 and less than or equal to 2, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.8 and less than or equal to 0.85, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.9 and less than or equal to 0.95;
if the using day value of the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value all meet a third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the inventory natural gas use day value is greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9.
Further, the establishing a model of the number of days in which the natural gas in stock is available on the current day according to the gas usage on the current day, the planned intake air amount on the current day, the inventory amount on the historical day, the planned intake air amount on the historical day, and the gas usage on the historical day to obtain the value of the number of days in which the natural gas in stock is available on the current day includes:
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000041
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000042
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000043
the gas consumption on the current day, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, T is the current day, and T is the set of the previous 30 days of the current day T;
establishing a stock model of the current day according to the stock of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the air consumption of the historical day to obtain the stock of the current day; wherein the inventory model of the current day is:
Figure BDA0003030803890000044
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000045
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA0003030803890000046
is the amount of stock in the historical days,
Figure BDA0003030803890000047
the planned intake air amount for the history day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000048
the gas consumption of the historical day, i is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current day;
establishing a natural gas inventory available day model of the current day according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the current day, the air consumption of the current day and the daily average air consumption of a historical month to obtain a natural gas inventory available day value of the current day; wherein the model of the number of days that the inventory natural gas can be used on the current day is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000049
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA00030308038900000410
the number of days the inventory of natural gas is available for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900000411
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA00030308038900000412
the planned intake air amount for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900000413
the amount of gas used for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900000414
the average daily gas consumption of the historical month, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current day.
Further, according to the first monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate, the early warning value of the gas power plant is judged, and the method comprises the following steps:
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a first preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first rule of predetermineeing of gas power plant is: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second february contract gas amount coverage rate is less than or equal to 0.5;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a second preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a secondary early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.6;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a third preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.7.
Further, the first monthly contract gas volume coverage is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring annual planned air inflow, monthly planned air inflow, daily average air consumption corresponding to the heat and fixed power consumption of the historical day, the number of the two-shift units and the daily average air consumption of the two-shift units;
establishing a first monthly contract gas coverage rate model according to the annual plan gas inflow, the monthly plan gas inflow, the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat and power fixed electricity of the historical day, the number of the two shift units and the daily average gas consumption of the two shift units, and obtaining a first monthly contract gas coverage rate; wherein the first monthly contract gas coverage model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000051
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000052
for the first monthly contract gas volume coverage,
Figure BDA0003030803890000053
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure BDA0003030803890000054
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000055
the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat fixed electricity quantity of the historical days,
Figure BDA0003030803890000056
the number of the units of the two-shift system,
Figure BDA0003030803890000057
the daily average air consumption of the two-shift unit.
Further, the second february contract gas amount coverage is calculated by:
acquiring the gas consumption of the current day, the annual planned gas inflow and the monthly planned gas inflow;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000061
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA0003030803890000062
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000063
the gas consumption on the current day, j is the number of the gas power plant, T is the current day, and T is the set of the previous 30 days of the current day T;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of the same year and the same period according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the same year and the same period; wherein, the daily average gas consumption model of the same period of the last year is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000064
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000065
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period of the last year,
Figure BDA0003030803890000066
the gas consumption on the current day, T is the current day, and T _ y is a 30-day set of the same year;
establishing a second February contract gas quantity coverage rate model according to the annual planned gas quantity, the monthly planned gas quantity, the daily average gas consumption of the historical month and the daily average gas consumption of the same year; wherein the second February contract gas amount coverage rate is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000067
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000068
for the second degree of contract gas volume coverage,
Figure BDA0003030803890000069
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure BDA00030308038900000610
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure BDA00030308038900000611
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA00030308038900000612
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period in the last year.
Further, the judging the supply early warning value of the total-province liquefied natural gas according to the total-province natural gas available day number value comprises the following steps:
if the number of days available for the natural gas in the whole province meets a first preset rule of the natural gas in the whole province, the supply early warning value of the natural gas in the whole province is a primary early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the number of days available for the natural gas in the whole province is less than or equal to 1;
if the number of days available for the total-provincial natural gas meets a second preset rule of the total-provincial natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total-provincial natural gas is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 1 and less than or equal to 2;
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a third preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a three-level early warning; the third preset rule of the natural gas in the whole province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas in the whole province is more than 2 and less than or equal to 3.
Further, the total natural gas available day value is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month;
establishing a total-provincial natural gas available day model according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month to obtain a total-provincial natural gas available day value; wherein, the model of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000071
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000072
the value of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province,
Figure BDA0003030803890000073
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA0003030803890000074
the planned intake air amount for the given day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000075
in order to supply the air for a given day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000076
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000077
the average daily gas supply amount of the historical month is shown, I is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, I is the set of the provincial natural gas receiving stations, t is the current day, and m is the specified day.
The second aspect of the present invention provides a natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning system, comprising:
the inventory early warning value judgment module of the liquefied natural gas station is used for acquiring the use day value of the inventory natural gas of the liquefied natural gas station, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the supply load value; judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value;
the early warning value judgment module of the gas power plant is used for acquiring the first monthly contract gas coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas coverage rate of the gas power plant; judging an early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate;
the system comprises a supply early warning value judgment module of the natural gas liquefied from the whole province, a service life judgment module and a service life judgment module, wherein the supply early warning value judgment module is used for acquiring the available day value of the natural gas from the whole province; judging a supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas;
and the early warning display and early warning release module is used for carrying out early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the total-province liquefied natural gas.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a method and a system for monitoring and early warning the safety of a natural gas supply chain, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring a natural gas use day value, an air intake saturation value and an air supply load value of a historical month of stock natural gas of a liquefied natural gas station; judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value; acquiring first monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate and second monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate of the gas power plant; judging an early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate; acquiring the available day value of natural gas of the whole province; judging a supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas; and carrying out early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the liquefied natural gas in the whole province. The scheme improves the risk discrimination capability, and early warning is carried out in advance to reduce the loss.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for monitoring and warning safety of a natural gas supply chain according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flow chart of a method for monitoring and warning safety of a natural gas supply chain according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a diagram of a safety monitoring and warning system for a natural gas supply chain according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are for convenience of description only and are not intended as limitations on the order in which the steps are performed.
It is to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in this specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a", "an", and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising" indicate the presence of the described features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
The term "and/or" refers to any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items and includes such combinations.
With the guidance of national policies and the improvement of infrastructure, regional natural gas demand is growing rapidly and is extremely unbalanced. The large fluctuation of the natural gas demand not only affects the stable supply of natural gas, but also affects the safety of power supply through the gas power plant. Under the background of energy Internet, provincial natural gas and a gas power plant are lack of supply monitoring, risk identification and early warning means for ensuring power supply as a main purpose, and regional natural gas supply faces risks. The problem of power supply and demand balance tension caused by insufficient natural gas is solved. The invention provides a provincial level natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method, which is characterized in that factors such as inventory days, air inlet saturation and air supply load degree of a future 30 days are considered, and a three-level early warning model of an LNG receiving station is established; establishing a three-stage early warning model for insufficient gas in consideration of monthly contract gas coverage rate of the gas power plant; and (3) considering the available days of the whole province in the future 30 days and the alarm proportion of the gas power plant in the province to establish a three-level early warning model of the natural gas supply insufficiency of the whole province.
A first aspect.
Referring to fig. 1-2, an embodiment of the invention provides a method for monitoring and warning safety of a natural gas supply chain, including:
s10, acquiring a natural gas use day value, an air intake saturation value and an air supply load value of a historical month of stock natural gas of a liquefied natural gas station; and judging the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value.
In a specific embodiment, the step S10 includes:
and S11, receiving the current daily gas consumption, the current daily inventory, the current daily planned air inflow, the current daily maximum gas supply, the historical daily gas consumption, the historical daily inventory, the historical daily planned air inflow and the historical monthly daily average gas consumption sent by the liquefied natural gas station.
And S12, establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day according to the gas consumption on the current day, the planned gas inflow on the current day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned gas inflow on the historical day and the gas consumption on the historical day, and obtaining the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day.
In a specific embodiment, the step S12 includes:
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000111
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000112
is the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000113
the gas consumption on the current day, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, T is the current day, and T is the set of the previous 30 days of the current day T;
establishing a stock model of the current day according to the stock of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the air consumption of the historical day to obtain the stock of the current day; wherein the inventory model of the current day is:
Figure BDA0003030803890000114
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000115
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA0003030803890000116
is the amount of stock in the historical days,
Figure BDA0003030803890000117
planning for historical daysThe amount of intake air,
Figure BDA0003030803890000118
the gas consumption of the historical day, i is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current day;
establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas in the current day according to the inventory in the current day, the planned air input amount in the current day, the air consumption in the current day and the daily average air consumption in a historical month to obtain the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas in the current day; wherein the model of the number of days that the inventory natural gas can be used on the current day is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000119
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA00030308038900001110
the number of days the inventory of natural gas is available for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001111
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA00030308038900001112
the planned intake air amount for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001113
the amount of gas used for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001114
the average daily gas consumption of the historical month, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current date.
And S13, acquiring the actual air intake amount of the historical month and the planned air intake amount of the historical month.
And S14, establishing a monthly air inlet saturation model according to the actual air inlet amount of the historical month and the planned air inlet amount of the historical month to obtain an air inlet saturation value of the historical month.
And S15, establishing an air supply load degree model according to the air consumption of the current day and the maximum air supply quantity of the current day to obtain an air supply load degree value.
And S16, judging the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
if the using day value of the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of using days of the stock natural gas is less than or equal to 1, the intake saturation value of the historical month is less than or equal to 0.8, and the air supply load value is greater than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of days of use of the inventory natural gas is greater than 1 and less than or equal to 2, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.8 and less than or equal to 0.85, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.9 and less than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is subjected to three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the inventory natural gas use day value is greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9.
S20, acquiring first monthly contract gas amount coverage and second monthly contract gas amount coverage of the gas power plant; and judging the early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate meet a first preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first rule of predetermineeing of gas power plant is: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second february contract gas amount coverage rate is less than or equal to 0.5;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a second preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.6;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a third preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second february contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.7.
In a specific embodiment, the first monthly contract gas volume coverage is calculated by:
acquiring annual planned air inflow, monthly planned air inflow, daily average air consumption corresponding to the historical daily heat and power consumption, the number of the two-shift units and the daily average air consumption of the two-shift units;
establishing a first monthly contract gas coverage rate model according to the annual plan gas inflow, the monthly plan gas inflow, the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat and fixed electricity quantity of the historical days, the number of the two shift units and the daily average gas consumption of the two shift units, and obtaining a first monthly contract gas coverage rate; wherein the first monthly contract gas coverage model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000131
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000132
for the first monthly contract gas volume coverage,
Figure BDA0003030803890000133
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure BDA0003030803890000141
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000142
the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat fixed electricity quantity of the historical days,
Figure BDA0003030803890000143
the number of the units of the two-shift system,
Figure BDA0003030803890000144
the daily average air consumption of the two-shift unit.
The second february contract gas amount coverage rate is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the gas consumption of the current day, the annual planned gas inflow and the monthly planned gas inflow;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000145
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000146
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000147
the gas consumption of the current day, j is the number of the gas power plant, T is the current day, and T isThe previous 30 days of the current day t;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of the same year and the same period according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the same year and the same period; wherein, the daily average gas consumption model of the same period of the last year is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000148
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000149
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period of the last year,
Figure BDA00030308038900001410
the gas consumption on the current day, T is the current day, and T _ y is a 30-day set of the same year;
establishing a second February contract gas quantity coverage rate model according to the annual planned gas quantity, the monthly planned gas quantity, the daily average gas consumption of the historical month and the daily average gas consumption of the same year; wherein the second February contract gas amount coverage rate is as follows:
Figure BDA00030308038900001411
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA00030308038900001412
for the second degree of contract gas volume coverage,
Figure BDA00030308038900001413
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure BDA00030308038900001414
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure BDA00030308038900001415
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA00030308038900001416
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period in the last year.
S30, acquiring the available day value of the natural gas of the whole province; and judging the supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a first preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the number of days available for the natural gas in the whole province is less than or equal to 1;
if the number of days available for the total-provincial natural gas meets a second preset rule of the total-provincial natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total-provincial natural gas is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 1 and less than or equal to 2;
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a third preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 2 and less than or equal to 3.
In one embodiment, the total provincial natural gas available day value is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month;
establishing a total-provincial natural gas available day model according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month to obtain a total-provincial natural gas available day value; wherein, the model of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000151
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000152
the value of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province,
Figure BDA0003030803890000153
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA0003030803890000154
the planned intake air amount for the given day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000155
in order to supply the air for a given day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000156
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000157
the average daily gas supply amount of the historical month is shown, I is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, I is the set of the provincial natural gas receiving stations, t is the current day, and m is the specified day.
And S40, carrying out early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the liquefied natural gas in the whole province.
The invention provides a safety monitoring and early warning method for a natural gas supply chain, which is characterized in that a three-level early warning model of an LNG receiving station is established by considering factors such as inventory days, air inlet saturation and air supply load degree in the future 30 days; establishing a three-stage early warning model for insufficient gas in consideration of monthly contract gas coverage rate of the gas power plant; and (3) considering the available days of the whole province in the future 30 days and the alarm proportion of the gas power plant in the province to establish a three-level early warning model of the natural gas supply insufficiency of the whole province. The scheme improves the risk discrimination capability, and early warning is carried out in advance to reduce the loss.
A second aspect.
Referring to fig. 3, a safety monitoring and early warning system for a natural gas supply chain according to an embodiment of the present invention includes:
the inventory early warning value judgment module 10 of the liquefied natural gas station is used for acquiring the use day value of the inventory natural gas of the liquefied natural gas station, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value; and judging the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas use day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value.
In a specific embodiment, the inventory warning value judgment module 10 of the lng station is further configured to:
and receiving the gas consumption on the current day, the inventory on the current day, the planned air intake quantity on the current day, the maximum gas supply quantity on the current day, the gas consumption on the historical day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned air intake quantity on the historical day and the daily average gas consumption on the historical month sent by the liquefied natural gas station.
And establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day according to the gas consumption on the current day, the planned air inflow on the current day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned air inflow on the historical day and the gas consumption on the historical day to obtain the value of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000171
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA0003030803890000172
is the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000173
the gas consumption on the current day, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, T is the current day, and T is the set of the previous 30 days of the current day T;
establishing a stock model of the current day according to the stock of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the air consumption of the historical day to obtain the stock of the current day; wherein the inventory model of the current day is:
Figure BDA0003030803890000174
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000175
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA0003030803890000176
is the amount of stock in the historical days,
Figure BDA0003030803890000177
the planned intake air amount for the history day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000178
the gas consumption of the historical day, i is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current day;
establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas in the current day according to the inventory in the current day, the planned air input amount in the current day, the air consumption in the current day and the daily average air consumption in a historical month to obtain the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas in the current day; wherein the model of the number of days that the inventory natural gas can be used on the current day is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000179
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA00030308038900001710
the number of days the inventory of natural gas is available for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001711
is the amount of stock on the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001712
the planned intake air amount for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001713
the amount of gas used for the current day,
Figure BDA00030308038900001714
the average daily gas consumption of the historical month, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current date.
And acquiring the actual air intake amount of the historical month and the planned air intake amount of the historical month.
And establishing a monthly air inlet saturation model according to the actual air inlet amount of the historical month and the planned air inlet amount of the historical month to obtain an air inlet saturation value of the historical month.
And establishing an air supply load degree model according to the air consumption of the current day and the maximum air supply of the current day to obtain an air supply load degree value.
And judging the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
if the using day value of the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value all meet a first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a primary early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of using days of the stock natural gas is less than or equal to 1, the intake saturation value of the historical month is less than or equal to 0.8, and the air supply load value is greater than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of days of use of the inventory natural gas is greater than 1 and less than or equal to 2, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.8 and less than or equal to 0.85, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.9 and less than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is subjected to three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the inventory natural gas use day value is greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9.
The early warning value judgment module 20 of the gas power plant is used for acquiring a first monthly contract gas coverage rate and a second monthly contract gas coverage rate of the gas power plant; and judging the early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate meet a first preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first rule of predetermineeing of gas power plant is: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second february contract gas amount coverage rate is less than or equal to 0.5;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a second preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.6;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a third preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.7.
In a specific embodiment, the first monthly contract gas volume coverage is calculated by:
acquiring annual planned air inflow, monthly planned air inflow, daily average air consumption corresponding to the heat and fixed power consumption of the historical day, the number of the two-shift units and the daily average air consumption of the two-shift units;
establishing a first monthly contract gas coverage rate model according to the annual plan gas inflow, the monthly plan gas inflow, the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat and power fixed electricity of the historical day, the number of the two shift units and the daily average gas consumption of the two shift units, and obtaining a first monthly contract gas coverage rate; wherein the first monthly contract gas coverage model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000191
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000192
for the first monthly contract gas volume coverage,
Figure BDA0003030803890000193
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure BDA0003030803890000201
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000202
the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat and fixed electricity consumption of the historical days,
Figure BDA0003030803890000203
the number of the units of the two-shift system,
Figure BDA0003030803890000204
the daily average air consumption of the two-shift unit.
The second february contract gas amount coverage rate is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the gas consumption of the current day, the annual planned gas inflow and the monthly planned gas inflow;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000205
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000206
is the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000207
the gas consumption of the current day, j is the number of a gas power plant, T is the current day, and T is the previous 30 days set of T of the current day;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of the same year and the same period according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the same year and the same period; wherein, the daily average gas consumption model of the same period of the last year is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000208
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000209
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period of the last year,
Figure BDA00030308038900002010
the gas consumption on the current day, T is the current day, and T _ y is a 30-day set of the same year;
establishing a second February contract gas quantity coverage rate model according to the annual planned gas quantity, the monthly planned gas quantity, the daily average gas consumption of the historical month and the daily average gas consumption of the same year; wherein the second February contract gas amount coverage rate is as follows:
Figure BDA00030308038900002011
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA00030308038900002012
for the second degree of contract gas volume coverage,
Figure BDA00030308038900002013
the intake air amount is planned for the year,
Figure BDA00030308038900002014
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure BDA00030308038900002015
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA00030308038900002016
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period in the last year.
The system comprises a supply early warning value judgment module 30 for the natural gas of the whole province, which is used for acquiring the available day value of the natural gas of the whole province; and judging the supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a first preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the number of days available for the natural gas in the whole province is less than or equal to 1;
if the number of days available for the total-provincial natural gas meets a second preset rule of the total-provincial natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total-provincial natural gas is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 1 and less than or equal to 2;
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a third preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 2 and less than or equal to 3.
In one embodiment, the total provincial natural gas available day value is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month;
establishing a model of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air inflow of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month to obtain a value of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province; wherein, the model of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province is as follows:
Figure BDA0003030803890000211
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003030803890000212
the value of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province,
Figure BDA0003030803890000213
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure BDA0003030803890000214
the planned intake air amount for the given day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000215
in order to supply the air for a given day,
Figure BDA0003030803890000216
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure BDA0003030803890000217
i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station,i is the set of provincial natural gas receiving stations, t is the current day, and m is the designated day.
And the early warning display and early warning release module 40 is used for performing early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the total-province liquefied natural gas.
The invention provides a natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning system, which improves risk discrimination capability and early warns in advance to reduce loss.
In a third aspect.
The present invention provides an electronic device, including:
a processor, a memory, and a bus;
the bus is used for connecting the processor and the memory;
the memory is used for storing operation instructions;
the processor is configured to call the operation instruction, and the executable instruction enables the processor to execute an operation corresponding to the natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method in the first aspect of the present application.
In an alternative embodiment, an electronic device is provided, as shown in fig. 4, the electronic device 5000 shown in fig. 4 includes: a processor 5001 and a memory 5003. The processor 5001 and the memory 5003 are coupled, such as via a bus 5002. Optionally, the electronic device 5000 can also include a transceiver 5004. It should be noted that the transceiver 5004 is not limited to one in practical application, and the structure of the electronic device 5000 is not limited to the embodiment of the present application.
The processor 5001 may be a CPU, general purpose processor, DSP, ASIC, FPGA or other programmable logic device, transistor logic device, hardware component, or any combination thereof. Which may implement or perform the various illustrative logical blocks, modules, and circuits described in connection with the disclosure. The processor 5001 may also be a combination of processors implementing computing functionality, e.g., a combination comprising one or more microprocessors, a combination of DSPs and microprocessors, or the like.
Bus 5002 can include a path that conveys information between the aforementioned components. The bus 5002 may be a PCI bus or EISA bus, etc. The bus 5002 may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, and the like. For ease of illustration, only one thick line is shown in FIG. 4, but this does not indicate only one bus or one type of bus.
The memory 5003 may be, but is not limited to, a ROM or other type of static storage device that can store static information and instructions, a RAM or other type of dynamic storage device that can store information and instructions, an EEPROM, a CD-ROM or other optical disk storage, optical disk storage (including compact disk, laser disk, optical disk, digital versatile disk, blu-ray disk, etc.), magnetic disk storage media or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store desired program code in the form of instructions or data structures and that can be accessed by a computer.
The memory 5003 is used for storing application program codes for executing the present solution, and the execution is controlled by the processor 5001. The processor 5001 is configured to execute application program code stored in the memory 5003 to implement aspects illustrated in any of the method embodiments described previously.
Among them, electronic devices include but are not limited to: mobile terminals such as mobile phones, notebook computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (personal digital assistants), PADs (tablet computers), PMPs (portable multimedia players), in-vehicle terminals (e.g., in-vehicle navigation terminals), and the like, and fixed terminals such as digital TVs, desktop computers, and the like.
A fourth aspect.
The invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements a natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method as shown in the first aspect of the present application.
Yet another embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when run on a computer, enables the computer to perform the corresponding content in the aforementioned method embodiments.

Claims (8)

1. A natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a natural gas use day value, an air intake saturation value and an air supply load value of a historical month of stock natural gas of a liquefied natural gas station; judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value;
acquiring first monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate and second monthly contract gas quantity coverage rate of the gas power plant; judging an early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate;
acquiring available day values of natural gas of the whole province; judging a supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas;
carrying out early warning display and early warning release on an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, an early warning value of the gas power plant and a supply early warning value of the total-provincial liquefied natural gas;
the method for judging the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value comprises the following steps:
receiving the gas consumption of the current day, the inventory of the current day, the planned air inflow of the current day, the maximum gas supply quantity of the current day, the gas consumption of the historical day, the inventory of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the daily average gas consumption of the historical month sent by the liquefied natural gas station;
establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day according to the gas consumption on the current day, the planned air inflow on the current day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned air inflow on the historical day and the gas consumption on the historical day to obtain the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day;
acquiring actual air inflow of a historical month and planned air inflow of the historical month;
establishing a monthly air inlet saturation model according to the actual air inlet amount of the historical month and the planned air inlet amount of the historical month to obtain an air inlet saturation value of the historical month;
establishing an air supply load degree model according to the air consumption of the current day and the maximum air supply of the current day to obtain an air supply load degree value;
judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value;
the method for establishing the model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day according to the gas consumption on the current day, the planned air input amount on the current day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned air input amount on the historical day and the gas consumption on the historical day to obtain the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day comprises the following steps:
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000021
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000022
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure FDA0004014395860000023
the gas consumption of the current day, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, T is the current day, and T is the set of the previous 30 days of the T on the current day;
establishing a stock model of the current day according to the stock of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the air consumption of the historical day to obtain the stock of the current day; wherein the inventory model of the current day is:
Figure FDA0004014395860000024
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000025
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure FDA0004014395860000026
is the amount of stock in the historical days,
Figure FDA0004014395860000027
the planned intake air amount for the history day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000028
the gas consumption of the historical day, i is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current day;
establishing a natural gas inventory available day model of the current day according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the current day, the air consumption of the current day and the daily average air consumption of a historical month to obtain a natural gas inventory available day value of the current day; wherein the model of the number of days that the inventory natural gas can be used on the current day is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000029
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000031
the number of days the inventory of natural gas is available for the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000032
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure FDA0004014395860000033
the planned intake air amount for the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000034
is as followsThe amount of gas used in the previous day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000035
the average daily gas consumption of the historical month, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current date.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the determining the inventory warning value of the lng station according to the inventory natural gas usage day value, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the supply load value comprises:
if the using day value of the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of using days of the stock natural gas is less than or equal to 1, the intake saturation value of the historical month is less than or equal to 0.8, and the air supply load value is greater than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the number of days of use of the inventory natural gas is greater than 1 and less than or equal to 2, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.8 and less than or equal to 0.85, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.9 and less than or equal to 0.95;
if the number of days of using the stock natural gas, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the intake load value meet a third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station, the stock early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station is subjected to three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the liquefied natural gas station is as follows: the inventory natural gas use day value is greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3, the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9, and the intake saturation value of the historical month is greater than 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.9.
3. The method for monitoring and warning the safety of the natural gas supply chain according to claim 1, wherein the step of judging the warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate comprises the following steps:
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a first preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first rule of predetermineeing of gas power plant is: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second february contract gas amount coverage rate is less than or equal to 0.5;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a second preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a secondary early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second monthly contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.6;
if the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate meet a third preset rule of the gas power plant, the early warning value of the gas power plant is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the gas power plant is as follows: the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate or the second february contract gas amount coverage rate is greater than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.7.
4. A natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the first monthly contract gas volume coverage is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring annual planned air inflow, monthly planned air inflow, daily average air consumption corresponding to the heat and fixed power consumption of the historical day, the number of the two-shift units and the daily average air consumption of the two-shift units;
establishing a first monthly contract gas coverage rate model according to the annual plan gas inflow, the monthly plan gas inflow, the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat and fixed electricity quantity of the historical days, the number of the two shift units and the daily average gas consumption of the two shift units, and obtaining a first monthly contract gas coverage rate; wherein the first monthly contract gas coverage model is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000051
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000052
for the first monthly contract gas volume coverage,
Figure FDA0004014395860000053
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure FDA0004014395860000054
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure FDA0004014395860000055
the daily average gas consumption corresponding to the heat fixed electricity quantity of the historical days,
Figure FDA0004014395860000056
the number of the units of the two-shift system,
Figure FDA0004014395860000057
the daily average gas consumption of the two-shift unit.
5. A natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and forewarning method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the second degree contract gas amount coverage is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the gas consumption of the current day, the annual planned gas inflow and the monthly planned gas inflow;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000058
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000059
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure FDA00040143958600000510
the gas consumption of the current day, j is the number of a gas power plant, T is the current day, and T is the previous 30 days set of T of the current day;
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of the same year and the same period according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the same year and the same period; wherein, the daily average gas consumption model of the same period of the last year is as follows:
Figure FDA00040143958600000511
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA00040143958600000512
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period of the last year,
Figure FDA00040143958600000513
the gas consumption of the current day, T is the current day, and T _ y is a 30-day set of the same year;
establishing a second February contract gas quantity coverage rate model according to the annual planned gas quantity, the monthly planned gas quantity, the daily average gas consumption of the historical month and the daily average gas consumption of the same year; wherein the second February contract gas amount coverage rate is as follows:
Figure FDA00040143958600000514
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000061
for the second degree of contract gas volume coverage,
Figure FDA0004014395860000062
the amount of intake air is planned for the year,
Figure FDA0004014395860000063
the intake air amount is planned for the month,
Figure FDA0004014395860000064
the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure FDA0004014395860000065
is the daily average gas consumption in the same period in the last year.
6. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the determining the pre-warning value of lng supply in the province according to the days available in the province includes:
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a first preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a first-level early warning; wherein, the first preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the number of days available for the natural gas in the whole province is less than or equal to 1;
if the number of days available for the total-provincial natural gas meets a second preset rule of the total-provincial natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total-provincial natural gas is a second-level early warning; wherein, the second preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 1 and less than or equal to 2;
if the number of days available for the total natural gas meets a third preset rule of the total natural gas, the supply early warning value of the total natural gas is a three-level early warning; wherein, the third preset rule of the total natural gas province is as follows: the available day number of the natural gas of the whole province is more than 2 and less than or equal to 3.
7. The natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the total provincial natural gas available day value is calculated by the following steps:
acquiring the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month;
establishing a total-provincial natural gas available day model according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the specified day, the air supply quantity of the specified day, the daily average air consumption of the historical month and the daily average air supply quantity of the historical month to obtain a total-provincial natural gas available day value; wherein, the model of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000071
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000072
the value of the available days of the natural gas in the whole province,
Figure FDA0004014395860000073
is the amount of stock on the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000074
the planned intake air amount for the given day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000075
in order to supply the air for a given day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000076
is the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure FDA0004014395860000077
the average daily gas supply amount of the historical month is shown, I is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, I is the set of the provincial natural gas receiving stations, t is the current day, and m is the specified day.
8. A natural gas supply chain safety monitoring and early warning system, characterized by includes:
the inventory early warning value judgment module of the liquefied natural gas station is used for acquiring the use day value of the inventory natural gas of the liquefied natural gas station, the intake saturation value of the historical month and the gas supply load value; judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas use day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value;
the early warning value judgment module of the gas power plant is used for acquiring the first monthly contract gas coverage rate and the second monthly contract gas coverage rate of the gas power plant; judging an early warning value of the gas power plant according to the first monthly contract gas amount coverage rate and the second february contract gas amount coverage rate;
the system comprises a supply early warning value judgment module of the total-province liquefied natural gas, a supply early warning value judgment module and a supply early warning value judgment module, wherein the supply early warning value judgment module is used for acquiring the available day value of the total-province natural gas; judging a supply early warning value of the provincial liquefied natural gas according to the number of days available for the provincial natural gas;
the early warning display and early warning release module is used for carrying out early warning display and early warning release on the inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station, the early warning value of the gas power plant and the supply early warning value of the total-province liquefied natural gas;
the inventory early warning value judgment module of the liquefied natural gas station is also used for:
receiving the gas consumption of the current day, the inventory of the current day, the planned air inflow of the current day, the maximum gas supply quantity of the current day, the gas consumption of the historical day, the inventory of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the daily average gas consumption of the historical month sent by the liquefied natural gas station;
establishing a model of the number of usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day according to the gas consumption on the current day, the planned air inflow on the current day, the inventory on the historical day, the planned air inflow on the historical day and the gas consumption on the historical day to obtain the value of the usable days of the stock natural gas on the current day;
acquiring actual air inflow of a historical month and planned air inflow of the historical month;
establishing a monthly air inlet saturation model according to the actual air inlet amount of the historical month and the planned air inlet amount of the historical month to obtain an air inlet saturation value of the historical month;
establishing an air supply load degree model according to the air consumption of the current day and the maximum air supply of the current day to obtain an air supply load degree value;
judging an inventory early warning value of the liquefied natural gas station according to the inventory natural gas using day value, the air intake saturation value of the historical month and the air supply load value;
specifically, the establishing a model of the number of days in which the natural gas in stock is available on the current day according to the gas usage on the current day, the planned intake air amount on the current day, the inventory amount on the historical day, the planned intake air amount on the historical day, and the gas usage on the historical day to obtain the value of the number of days in which the natural gas in stock is available on the current day includes:
establishing a daily average gas consumption model of a historical month according to the gas consumption of the current day to obtain the daily average gas consumption of the historical month; wherein the daily average gas consumption model of the historical month is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000081
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure FDA0004014395860000082
is the daily average gas consumption of the historical month,
Figure FDA0004014395860000083
the gas consumption on the current day, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, T is the current day, and T is the set of the previous 30 days of the current day T;
establishing a stock model of the current day according to the stock of the historical day, the planned air inflow of the historical day and the air consumption of the historical day to obtain the stock of the current day; wherein the inventory model of the current day is:
Figure FDA0004014395860000084
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0004014395860000085
is the amount of stock on the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000086
is the amount of stock in the historical days,
Figure FDA0004014395860000091
the planned intake air amount for the history day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000092
the gas consumption of the historical day, i is the serial number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current day;
establishing a natural gas inventory available day model of the current day according to the inventory of the current day, the planned air input of the current day, the air consumption of the current day and the daily average air consumption of a historical month to obtain a natural gas inventory available day value of the current day; wherein the model of the number of days that the inventory natural gas can be used on the current day is as follows:
Figure FDA0004014395860000093
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure FDA0004014395860000094
the number of days the inventory of natural gas is available for the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000095
as the amount of stock at the current date,
Figure FDA0004014395860000096
the planned intake air amount for the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000097
the amount of gas used for the current day,
Figure FDA0004014395860000098
the average daily gas consumption of the historical month, i is the number of the liquefied natural gas station, and t is the current date.
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