CN108805471A - Evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of hybrid system interactively - Google Patents
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Abstract
The embodiment of the present invention proposes a kind of Evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity analyzed based on hybrid system interactively, including：Hybrid system interactively analytical procedure, index screening step, data collection and preparation process, AHP weight-assigning steps, overall merit step, assessment result analytical procedure.Said program proposes a kind of Evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity analyzed based on hybrid system interactively, uses more rational scheme to assess water resources carrying capacity, so that assessment result is more accurate.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a water resource bearing capacity evaluation method based on composite system action relation analysis.
Background
As society develops, more and more fields begin to use data analysis and data processing techniques. The water resource bearing capacity is a main judgment technology and an effective means for judging whether the development and utilization of water resources are excessive or not and whether the balanced development between the economic and social development and the ecological environment system is realized or not. A common research idea for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity is to establish an evaluation index system or model according to requirements; however, the prior art does not systematically analyze the interaction relationship between the evaluation indexes, and no objective weighting method conforming to the regional characteristics is formed on the setting of the index weight, so that the evaluation scheme in one region does not have portability and applicability in another region.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problem that the current data fusion technology is not complete enough, the embodiment of the invention provides a water resource bearing capacity evaluation method based on composite system action relation analysis, and at least partially solves the problems in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating a water resource bearing capacity based on analysis of a composite system action relationship, including:
the method comprises the steps of analyzing the action relationship of a composite system, screening indexes, collecting and preparing data, distributing AHP weight, comprehensively evaluating and analyzing evaluation results; wherein,
the method comprises the steps of analyzing the action relationship of the composite system, and establishing a state space of the composite system according to ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic and social pressure;
an index screening step, which is used for determining indexes for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource;
a data collection and preparation step, which is used for collecting basic data and parameters in a target area; wherein the base data is from at least one of the following data sources: the method comprises the following steps that a China meteorological data sharing service network, observation data of a hydrological station belonging to a research area, remote sensing data, a national economic society development statistical database, a water resource bulletin, a national economic statistical bulletin, a water resource investigation and evaluation report of a target area and a water resource comprehensive planning report of the target area are obtained;
an AHP weight distribution step, which is used for distributing weight values to the indexes of each water resource bearing capacity evaluation determined in the index screening step;
a comprehensive evaluation step for constructing and adjusting an evaluation model; wherein the evaluation model is constructed by an ESI pressure index model;
and an evaluation result analysis step, which is used for obtaining the bearing degree index value calculated by the evaluation model and comparing the bearing degree index value with the historical average level to judge whether deviation is generated.
Further, the AHP weight assignment step specifically includes:
according to the correlation among the indexes of the water resource bearing capacity evaluation, the indexes of the water resource bearing capacity evaluation are layered, wherein the highest layer is a target layer, the middle layer is a standard layer, and the lowest layer is a scheme layer; wherein the target layer is a total target, the criterion layer comprises methods of the total target in the target layer, and the scheme layer comprises alternative methods of each method of achieving the total target;
according to the importance degree of each index in the same layer relative to the target of the previous layer, carrying out comparative analysis, constructing a judgment matrix for pairwise comparison, and carrying out consistency inspection;
the judgment matrix consistency index C.I. calculation formula is as follows:
wherein λMAXIn order to judge the maximum characteristic root of the matrix, n is the characteristic quantity;
calculating a random consistency ratio:
wherein r.i. is an average random consistency index, c.r. is a random consistency ratio;
when n is less than 3, judging that the matrix always has complete consistency; when n is more than or equal to 3 and C.R.is less than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix meets the requirement of consistency, otherwise, the matrix needs to be adjusted.
Calculating the relative weight of the compared elements to the criterion by the judgment matrix, calculating the total weight of each layer of elements to the total target, and sequencing each alternative scheme; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating the relative weight: the elements to be compared are compared with the upper layer for ranking, namely the maximum eigenvector of the judgment matrix is calculated;
calculating the total weight: and further synthesizing to obtain the superior and inferior ranks of the previous rank by using the calculation results of the hierarchical single ranks, and finally obtaining the total weight.
Further, the comprehensive evaluation step specifically comprises:
a comprehensive evaluation model was constructed by the following ESI pressure index model:
wherein ESI is an ecological pressure index, WkAnd CkRespectively is the index weight and the index value of the pressure evaluation system, and n is the index number;
the comprehensive evaluation model was adjusted as follows: the model index system is expanded into a three-layer structure, namely n is 3, and corresponds to ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic and social pressure; then, continuously decomposing the index of the target layer downwards into m indexes of the criterion layer; and decomposing the continuous m indexes of the criterion layer to the scheme layer, and finally obtaining the following comprehensive evaluation model:
wherein WESI is the bearing degree index value of water resource bearing capacity, Wi、Wj、WkIndex weights for the target layer, criterion layer and solution layer, respectively, CkAnd l, m and n are respectively corresponding to index weights of the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer.
Further, the coordinates of x, y and z axes of the state space of the composite system established in the analysis step of the action relationship of the composite system respectively represent ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic social pressure; and the state space is divided into: loadable region, full-loaded region, overloaded region.
Further, the index screening step comprises:
a rough screening substep, which is used for searching and identifying documents in a preset database to determine candidate water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes, and sorting the candidate water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes according to the identification results according to the water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes searched and identified in the documents in the preset database;
and a final selection substep, which is used for adjusting the sequence according to the water resource bearing capacity evaluation index obtained in the coarse screening substep and according to the characteristics of the prisons in the target area, and selecting N indexes before the sequence, wherein N is more than or equal to 2.
Further, the evaluation result analyzing step specifically includes:
obtaining a historical average of a target areaMean data
WhereinAn index value for a solution layer in the historical average data;
acquiring a bearing degree index value WESI of the comprehensive evaluation model,
bearing degree index value WESI and historical average data according to comprehensive evaluation modelCalculating the water resource bearing degree representing the water resource bearing degree:
wherein, WRCC is the bearing degree representing the bearing capacity of water resources.
The technical scheme of the invention has the following advantages:
the scheme provides a water resource bearing capacity evaluation method based on the analysis of the action relationship of the composite system, and the more reasonable scheme is adopted to evaluate the water resource bearing capacity, so that the evaluation result is more accurate. By utilizing the technical scheme, the water resource bearing capacity result of any administrative unit (reaching the township level under the condition of data permission) in the three levels of nationwide province, city and county can be obtained, and the comprehensive management of water resources is facilitated. The method is suitable for technical analysis such as water resource supply and demand measurement, development and utilization and the like in national economic development planning of all levels of administrative units. The data is mostly based on statistical or remote sensing data, the calculation method is simple and easy to operate, and the method is convenient for technical popularization to a primary water manager so as to strengthen primary water resource management. The method can provide measurement and measurement standards for implementing the strictest water resource management of the country and evaluating the performance condition of water resource protection of all levels of government managers.
Drawings
The technical solutions and effects of the present invention will become more apparent and more easily understood from the following description of a preferred embodiment of the present invention, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Wherein:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a conceptual model diagram of a state space;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart of index screening;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical structure.
Detailed Description
A preferred embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The modeling method of the state space method is adopted to define the interaction relation between the evaluation index systems, the legal weight is analyzed hierarchically according to the regional characteristics, the necessity of index screening can be improved, the reasonability of index weight is optimized, the objectivity of the construction of the evaluation system is supported, the misjudgment of the bearing capacity of water resources is reduced, and the accuracy of the result is improved.
A composite system: the system comprises a water resource system, an ecosystem and an economic social system, and is an endogenous system, a state system and an external pressure system which cover influence factors, action modes, influence degrees and action ranges influencing the water resource bearing capacity, and three systems which are usually considered for screening water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes and constructing models and are collectively called as a composite system. The action relationship refers to the interaction manner between the composite system and its characterization index, including pressure release, state presentation and support response, or referred to as the pressure-state-response relationship between the carrying subject and the carrying object. At present, in the construction of a water resource bearing capacity evaluation index system, a research method for establishing a reasonable evaluation index from a bearing subject-object relationship is still lacked.
AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), an operation research method developed by the united states department of defense for power system distribution, is a system analysis method that combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to perform comprehensive weighting. The method has the advantages that the system analyzes the causal transfer relationship of each influence factor, the demand on data is less, the operation is simple and practical, and the method has the advantages of system analysis and is simple and easy to master.
Comprehensive evaluation method: the method is an objective evaluation method for multi-index and multi-system comprehensive evaluation, and obtains an index value reflecting the comprehensive bearing condition of the system by constructing a comprehensive index system and adopting a weighted summation mode. In water resource evaluation, a comprehensive evaluation method is usually only used for simple evaluation, and the rationality analysis of indexes and the comprehensive consideration of action modes among the indexes are lacked. By the analysis of the mutual feedback relationship of the composite system and the AHP passenger right, the application value of the comprehensive evaluation method can be greatly improved.
The embodiment of the invention provides a reliable comprehensive evaluation method for water resource bearing capacity based on the combination system action relationship discussion and AHP (attitude and heading protocol) visiting authority so as to realize simple and accurate diagnosis of the water resource bearing capacity in county scale in China. The method is shown in fig. 1 and comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of analyzing the action relationship of a composite system, screening indexes, collecting and preparing data, distributing AHP weight, comprehensively evaluating and analyzing evaluation results. Wherein:
1. the method comprises the steps of analyzing the action relationship of the composite system, classifying according to the attributes of a water resource bearing system, and constructing a state space axis of each factor influencing the bearing capacity according to the water resource system, the economic social system and the ecological system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: resource and energy consumption, environmental pollution emission, water supply and ecological system health. The method comprises the following steps:
1.1, composite system definition: in the analysis of the water resource bearing capacity, the supply capacity of a water resource system to the development of the economic society and the basic guarantee capacity for maintaining the ecological environment health without being damaged are focused, and in any related evaluation method, the problem of the interaction relationship among the three aspects needs to be considered, so that the three systems closely related to the water resource bearing capacity are called as a composite system in the evaluation of the water resource bearing capacity, namely the economic society system, the water resource system and the ecological system.
1.2, analyzing action relation: according to the state space principle, from the definition of the characteristics of the bearing capacity and the subject-object relationship, the attributes of each branch system of the bearing system are classified and analyzed, a pressure axis, a state axis and a response axis are established, an expert consultation method is combined, the secondary demonstration is carried out on the construction result of the pressure state space axis, the action mode and the action relationship of the three are finally determined to be water resources, the ecological system is used as a supporting axis, and the economic social pressure is used as the pressure axis.
In the embodiment of the invention, the established state space is shown in fig. 2, and the coordinates of the x, y and z axes respectively represent ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic social pressure; and the divided state space can be divided into: loadable region, full-loaded region, overloaded region.
2. And an index screening step, which is used for obtaining a high-frequency index adopted in the water resource bearing capacity evaluation according to an index frequency analysis result by adopting statistical analysis frequency discharge and is used as a basis for constructing a comprehensive evaluation system. This step, as shown in fig. 3, includes:
2.1, index primary selection: searching a 'water resource bearing capacity evaluation index' in a known network database, setting a search time limit as '1990-2018' in 28 years of literature data, adopting R program analysis software to perform automatic literature identification and index frequency elimination to obtain a high-frequency evaluation index adopted in water resource bearing capacity evaluation, performing statistics according to three aspects of water resource, ecology and economic society, and constructing an index database for macroscopic evaluation.
2.2, index final selection: on the basis of the initial index selection result, according to the characteristics of the target area to be evaluated, the principles of representativeness, integrity, harmony, dynamics, acquirability and the like are further considered, index calling is carried out according to the ecological system structures or the economic and social industry structures of different types of evaluation units in different regions, and indexes for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity of the target area are secondarily screened. For example, in an ecotype area, the ecotype index is called with emphasis; in the grassland type area, screening indexes capable of reflecting the characteristics of the grassland ecological system according to the characteristics of the grassland; in areas with significant urbanization characteristics, index calling needs to be performed according to the industrial structure characteristics of cities.
3. And a data collection and preparation step, which is used for collecting basic data and parameters of each index in the research area by means of statistics, remote sensing analysis and the like, and performing data supplement analysis of the data-lacking indexes to obtain complete index values for later use.
3.1, data collection: common data sources comprise a China meteorological data sharing service network, observation data of a hydrological station belonging to a research area, remote sensing data, a national economic and social development statistical database, a water resource bulletin, a national economic statistical bulletin, various local water resource investigation and evaluation reports or a water resource comprehensive planning report and the like. The priority of each kind of data is that the statistical data is superior to the remote sensing data and the latter is superior to the planning data according to the data reliability.
3.2, data supplement: according to the acquisition conditions of the economic society, the ecological system and the water resource system data of each level of administrative units, the development indexes of each economic society of the county-level administrative units are supplemented by a rating method or a trend analysis method, the indexes of the water resource system are supplemented by a correlation factor allocation method and a proportion allocation method, and the supplementing methods needing to be combined comprise remote sensing inversion, model simulation and water resource system discretization and assimilation supplement. Taking trend extrapolation as an example:
the trend extrapolation method is to find a more suitable function curve to approximately reflect the trend of a target variable to the change of a time sequence by analyzing and calculating the time sequence, and common trend models comprise a polynomial model, an exponential model, a logarithmic curve model and the like; the dimensions according to the model function can be divided into a one-dimensional model, a two-dimensional model and a three-dimensional model, and the models with three dimensions or higher than the three-dimensional model are rare in practical application.
The general prediction formula for a polynomial model is:
whereinIs a prediction term, t is time, b is a model parameter; when b is3～bkWhen the time is zero, the model is a secondary prediction model; when b is2～bkWhen the time is zero, the model is a primary prediction model, and the rest is done in sequence; the basic formulas of other predictive models are prior art and are not detailed here.
4. AHP weight distribution step, is used for combining the needs of the multi-stage management of water resource, set up index weight analysis easy to operate, easy to implement; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
4.1, hierarchical structure construction: according to the system interaction relationship analysis result, all factors influencing the water resource bearing capacity are divided into a plurality of different groups according to attributes to form different levels. The highest layer is a total target layer; the middle layer is an intermediate link related to the implementation of a predetermined general target by adopting certain measures, policies, schemes and the like and can be composed of a plurality of layers, including a criterion layer and a sub-criterion layer which need to be considered; the lowest layer is the various schemes, measures and the like which can be selected for realizing the target, and is also called a scheme layer. Each layer of secondary elements must have three characteristics of transferability, consistent attribute and function dependence, in order to avoid the difficulty of constructing a subsequent judgment matrix, each layer of secondary elements is generally not more than 9, and the hierarchical structure for establishing the water resource bearing capacity evaluation system is shown in fig. 4.
4.2, constructing a judgment matrix: and carrying out comparative analysis according to the importance degree of each index in the same level relative to the target in the previous level, constructing a judgment matrix for pairwise comparison, and carrying out consistency check. The judgment matrix generally adopts a 1-9 scaling method to compare the importance degrees of indexes, such as 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9, and the importance of the representation of the judgment matrix is increased in sequence; similarly, the inverse of the scale represents the degree to which the indicator is not significant. According to the analysis criteria of AHP, n (n +1)/2 judgments are needed to be carried out on n indexes. The scaling used for the decision matrix and its meaning are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 Scale definition of decision matrix
| Scale | Means of |
| 1 | Two elements are equally important compared to each other |
| 3 | The former is slightly more important than the latter in comparison with the two elements |
| 5 | The former is significantly more important than the latter in comparison with the two elements |
| 7 | The former is more important than the latter in comparison with the two elements |
| 9 | The former is extremely important than the latter in comparison with the two elements |
| 2,4,6,8, | The degree of importance is between the above scales |
| Reciprocal of the | Comparison of two elements, the latter to the former importance Scale |
The matrix Consistency Index C.I. (Consistency Index) is judged to be calculated according to the following formula:
the larger the consistency value C.I. is, the larger the deviation degree of the judgment matrix from the complete consistency is, otherwise, the judgment matrix is close to the complete consistency. Meanwhile, the following general rule is provided: the higher the order of the judgment matrix is, the larger the artificially-caused deviation complete consistency index C.I. is, and vice versa. It can be seen that the error amount also increases with the increase of n, and in order to exclude the influence of n, a random consistency ratio is used:
wherein r.i. (Random Index) is an average Random Consistency Index, and c.r. is a Random Consistency Ratio (Consistency Ratio).
For the multi-order decision matrix, the average random consistency index values of the 1-15 order matrix are shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 average random consistency index
| Order of matrix | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| R.I. | 0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.9 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 |
| Order of matrix | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
| R.I. | 1.46 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.56 | 1.58 | 1.59 |
It can be seen that when n <3, the judgment matrix always has complete consistency; and judging that the matrix has satisfactory consistency when the C.R. is less than or equal to 0.1, otherwise, adjusting the matrix.
4.3, determination of weight: the relative weight of the compared elements to the criterion is calculated by the judgment matrix, and the composite (total) weight of each layer of elements to the system purpose (total target) is calculated and each alternative is ordered. The specific operation flow is as follows:
(1) the relative weights are calculated. The elements to be compared are compared with the upper layer for ranking, namely the maximum eigenvector of the judgment matrix is calculated, and common methods comprise a sum-product method and a root method. Taking the sum-product method as an example, the specific calculation steps are as follows:
①, each row of elements of the judgment matrix is subjected to normalization processing, and general items of the elements are as follows:
adding the normalized judgment matrixes according to rows:
③ normalization processing of the vectors:
obtaining the relative sorting weight vector of the elements under a single criterion: w ═ W1, W2 … … Wn) T.
(2) The total weight is calculated. And further synthesizing to obtain the superior and inferior ranks of the previous rank by using the calculation results of the hierarchical single ranks, and finally obtaining the total weight.
5. And (3) comprehensive evaluation steps: and screening and adjusting the comprehensive evaluation model, so that the model is more suitable for the actual problem of water resource bearing capacity evaluation.
5.1, selecting a comprehensive evaluation model: and (4) considering the complexity of the comprehensive action among all indexes, constructing a comprehensive evaluation model based on an ESI pressure index model. The basic structure of the ESI pressure exponential model is as follows:
in the formula: ESI is the ecological pressure index, WkAnd CkRespectively is the index weight and the index value of the pressure evaluation system, and n is the index number;
5.2, adjusting a comprehensive evaluation model: when the method is applied to the evaluation of the water resource bearing capacity, certain improvement needs to be carried out on the model: (1) expanding the model index system into a three-layer structure, namely n is 3, and corresponding target layers are respectively a water resource supporting capacity evaluation system, an ecological supporting capacity evaluation system and an economic and social pressure evaluation system; (2) continuously decomposing the corresponding index systems of the sub-mesh layers into m index systems of the criterion layer; (3) the criteria layer continues to be decomposed towards the scheme layer.
According to the above thought, the main model for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource is constructed as follows:
wherein WESI is the comprehensive index value of water resource bearing capacity, Wi、Wj、WkIndex weights for the target layer, criterion layer and solution layer, respectively, CkAnd l, m and n are respectively corresponding to index weights of a target layer, a standard layer and a scheme layer, wherein l is 3, and m and n are required to be set according to the characteristics of a specific research area.
6. And (3) evaluation result analysis step: the theoretical bearing degree index value can be obtained by analyzing the water resource bearing capacity by adopting a WESI model, and the deviation condition of the bearing index relative to the annual average level needs to be further analyzed so as to judge whether the estimated value is deviated from the normal level, namely whether the estimated value is overloaded. Theoretically, the larger the load index, the more the water resource load condition tends to be overloaded, and it is highly likely that the load condition has deviated from the normal load range. However, according to the above conclusions, only general trends can be obtained, that is, similar trends of "water resource carrying capacity is developing towards overload or surplus", and in quantitative evaluation, it is necessary to obtain a definite carrying condition, and to determine whether overload occurs or not and how much overload is caused, so that in specific evaluation, a problem of an evaluation criterion needs to be analyzed.
6.1, basic assumption of model: because a unified evaluation red line value (or a reference value) is not formed in the current evaluation of the water resource bearing capacity in China, single-index red line values such as a 'total water consumption control red line', 'water consumption efficiency control red line' and 'water functional area limit sewage receiving red line' (namely a 'three red line' system) are only set in a few indexes, and the reference value of the water resource bearing capacity cannot be obtained sufficiently. The multi-year average value is often used in various analyses to reflect target values under similar situations such as "generalization", "normalization" and "standard scenario", and is often used in the design of "background value" because the value is generally estimated from the multi-year average data of long sequence, effectively avoiding random errors and data disturbance caused by economic and social development and ecosystem development. Based on the above theoretical basis, the following basic assumptions are made for the model results:
the average level of many years represents the stable condition of the water resource bearing capacity of the region, and is similar to a background value, so the average level of many years is taken as the basis of comparison.
② defining WESI index value andthe ratio of the WESI value (average WESI value in many years) is called bearing capacity, and is used as a basis for judging whether the water resource bearing capacity of a region is overloaded, so the following basic formula is provided:
in the formula:the values of the indexes of the scheme layer which is averaged over years, and other parameters and variables have the same meanings.
2. Water resource bearing capacity: calculating a relative value of the calculation results of the formulas (8) and (9) to obtain a water resource bearing degree representing the water resource bearing degree, wherein the calculation expression is as follows:
in the formula: WRCC is the bearing degree for representing the bearing capacity of water resources, and other variables have the same meanings as above.
An example flow of the model for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource is shown in the attached drawing 1. The method is used for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity of a complex large system and has the main ideas that:
firstly, the structural characteristics of the economic society or the ecological system of a county scale research area are determined through field research and geospatial data analysis, and a state space conceptual model is constructed according to the structural characteristics to determine the pressure-state-response relationship. Meanwhile, the initial selection of the target area water resource bearing system indexes is carried out, the 'fine' and 'full' of the indexes representing all influence factors of the water resource bearing capacity of the index system are maintained under the framework of a pressure-state-response relation conceptual model in the initial selection, the principles of representativeness, integrity, harmony, dynamics, acquirability and the like of the indexes are further considered, an initial selection index system is formed, classification is carried out according to the index space axis of the conceptual model, and three system index libraries are formed. And then, screening high-frequency indexes adopted by researchers in an index library by adopting a program, carrying out subsystem frequency-discharging to obtain an index set after secondary screening, and finally determining selected indexes by combining the regional characteristics to form a final evaluation index system. Furthermore, the basic data of each index of the evaluation system is collected and supplemented by adopting statistical analysis and other technical means. Further, an AHP method is adopted to carry out single-level sequencing and total-level sequencing of the index system, and priority weights of all indexes relative to the total target of water resource bearing capacity are obtained. And finally, referring to regional data, inputting the prepared data into a comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate regional water resource bearing capacity to obtain a water resource bearing capacity index value, meanwhile, calculating the water resource bearing capacity index value under the average level of years, and comparing the water resource bearing capacity index value and the water resource bearing capacity index value to obtain water resource bearing capacity which is used as a basis for judging whether the regional water resource bearing capacity is overloaded or not.
The method can not only evaluate the water resource bearing capacity of each level of administrative units, but also give a specific water resource bearing degree analysis result aiming at a specific region, thereby providing a reference suggestion for the government to make a policy scheme. The respective processing steps are explained below:
the first step is as follows: investigation in the research area. The method is characterized in that the method goes deep into the basic level to investigate the local economic and social development, the regional ecosystem condition, the hydrology and water resource history and the current situation, and according to the characteristics of strengthening the development of the city, the area mainly based on the heavy industry is determined, the ecosystem structure is complex, the method relates to diversified ecosystem structures such as forests, grasslands, shrubs and the like, belongs to a composite ecosystem, and is good in ecological condition. Therefore, the consolidation market conforms to a typical pressure-state-response structure, the pressure axis action is strong, the state axis is basically stable, and the response axis feedback action is obvious.
The second step is that: and (4) screening evaluation indexes of urban water resource bearing capacity. According to the flow shown in fig. 3, the evaluation index system is constructed by using the collected data of the land utilization/land cover of the consolidation city and the like and adopting a secondary index screening method, and the obtained evaluation index system of the bearing capacity of the consolidation city water resources is shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 evaluation index system for urban water resource bearing capacity
The third step: and (5) counting and preparing basic data. Collecting basic data of the research area according to the index system obtained in the third step, and calculating corresponding index values; when statistical data is lacked, basic data is supplemented by methods such as model simulation, remote sensing inversion and data discretization, and finally, complete values of each index system are obtained.
The fourth step: and (4) weight distribution based on an AHP method. And on the basis of the index values, performing index weight calculation by adopting an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the comprehensive weight of each index relative to the total target. The weight values of the indices are shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 Consolidate urban Water resource bearing Capacity evaluation index weight distribution
The fifth step: a water resource carrying capacity index value. And calculating the bearing capacity index of the consolidation city water resource by adopting each evaluation index of the screened consolidation city according to the comprehensive evaluation model. The concrete results include four: namely, the water resource supporting capacity index, the ecological supporting capacity index and the economic and social pressure index of the target layer, and the water resource bearing capacity index of the total target layer.
And a sixth step: and the bearing capacity of urban water resources is enhanced. After the calculation of the load index and the pressure index is completed, the calculation of the water resource load degree can be performed based on the formula (10), and the result is shown in table 5.
TABLE 5 Total target and partial target evaluation results for consolidating urban water resource bearing capacity
The seventh step: and (6) correcting the result. According to the state space conceptual model and the practical significance of the state space pressure axis, the water resource supporting axis and the ecological supporting axis of the target layer, the pressure axis reflects the pressure of the water resource bearing system caused by the economic and social development and is a pressure forward axis, so that the larger the economic and social pressure degree in the table 5 is, the larger the pressure of the water resource bearing system is; the supporting shaft reflects the supporting capacity of resisting pressure of the ecological system and the water resource system after the ecological system and the water resource system are stressed, so that the supporting degree and the ecological supporting degree of the water resource in the table 5 are supporting positive shafts (or called pressure negative shafts), and the larger the value of the supporting shaft is, the larger the economic and social pressure which can be supported by the system is; the water resource bearing capacity is based on the bearing capacity of pressure and support force comprehensive calculation and is also a support forward index, and the larger the value of the bearing capacity is, the larger the water resource bearing capacity is. According to the formula (10), the value below 1 indicates overload of the water resource carrying capacity.
The inventive concept can be implemented in different ways as the technology advances, as will be clear to a person skilled in the art. The embodiments of the invention are not limited to the above-described embodiments but may vary within the scope of the claims.
Claims (6)
1. A water resource bearing capacity evaluation method based on composite system action relation analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the steps of analyzing the action relationship of a composite system, screening indexes, collecting and preparing data, distributing AHP weight, comprehensively evaluating and analyzing evaluation results; wherein,
the method comprises the steps of analyzing the action relationship of the composite system, and establishing a state space of the composite system according to ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic and social pressure;
an index screening step, which is used for determining indexes for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource;
a data collection and preparation step, which is used for collecting basic data and parameters in a target area; wherein the base data is from at least one of the following data sources: the method comprises the following steps that a China meteorological data sharing service network, observation data of a hydrological station belonging to a research area, remote sensing data, a national economic society development statistical database, a water resource bulletin, a national economic statistical bulletin, a water resource investigation and evaluation report of a target area and a water resource comprehensive planning report of the target area are obtained;
an AHP weight distribution step, which is used for distributing weight values to the indexes of each water resource bearing capacity evaluation determined in the index screening step;
a comprehensive evaluation step for constructing and adjusting an evaluation model; wherein the evaluation model is constructed by an ESI pressure index model;
and an evaluation result analysis step, which is used for obtaining the bearing degree index value calculated by the evaluation model and comparing the bearing degree index value with the historical average level to judge whether deviation is generated.
2. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity based on the analysis of the composite system action relationship as claimed in claim 1, wherein the AHP weight assignment step specifically comprises:
according to the correlation among the indexes of the water resource bearing capacity evaluation, the indexes of the water resource bearing capacity evaluation are layered, wherein the highest layer is a target layer, the middle layer is a standard layer, and the lowest layer is a scheme layer; wherein the target layer is a total target, the criterion layer comprises methods of the total target in the target layer, and the scheme layer comprises alternative methods of each method of achieving the total target;
according to the importance degree of each index in the same layer relative to the target of the previous layer, carrying out comparative analysis, constructing a judgment matrix for pairwise comparison, and carrying out consistency inspection;
the judgment matrix consistency index C.I. calculation formula is as follows:
wherein λMAXIn order to judge the maximum characteristic root of the matrix, n is the characteristic quantity;
calculating a random consistency ratio:
wherein r.i. is an average random consistency index, c.r. is a random consistency ratio;
when n is less than 3, judging that the matrix always has complete consistency; when n is more than or equal to 3 and C.R.is less than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix meets the requirement of consistency, otherwise, the matrix needs to be adjusted.
Calculating the relative weight of the compared elements to the criterion by the judgment matrix, calculating the total weight of each layer of elements to the total target, and sequencing each alternative scheme; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating the relative weight: the elements to be compared are compared with the upper layer for ranking, namely the maximum eigenvector of the judgment matrix is calculated;
calculating the total weight: and further synthesizing to obtain the superior and inferior ranks of the previous rank by using the calculation results of the hierarchical single ranks, and finally obtaining the total weight.
3. The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource based on the analysis of the composite system action relationship as claimed in claim 2, wherein the comprehensive evaluation step specifically comprises:
a comprehensive evaluation model was constructed by the following ESI pressure index model:
wherein ESI is an ecological pressure index, WkAnd CkRespectively is the index weight and the index value of the pressure evaluation system, and n is the index number;
the comprehensive evaluation model was adjusted as follows: the model index system is expanded into a three-layer structure, namely n is 3, and corresponds to ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic and social pressure; then, continuously decomposing the index of the target layer downwards into m indexes of the criterion layer; and decomposing the continuous m indexes of the criterion layer to the scheme layer, and finally obtaining the following comprehensive evaluation model:
wherein WESI is the bearing degree index value of water resource bearing capacity, Wi、Wj、WkIndex weights for the target layer, criterion layer and solution layer, respectively, CkAnd l, m and n are respectively corresponding to index weights of the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer.
4. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity based on the analysis of the composite system action relationship as claimed in claim 1, wherein the coordinates of the x, y and z axes of the state space of the composite system established in the analysis step of the composite system action relationship represent ecological supporting capacity, water resource supporting capacity and economic social pressure respectively; and the state space is divided into: loadable region, full-loaded region, overloaded region.
5. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity based on the analysis of the composite system action relationship as claimed in claim 1, wherein the index screening step comprises:
a rough screening substep, which is used for searching and identifying documents in a preset database to determine candidate water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes, and sorting the candidate water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes according to the identification results according to the water resource bearing capacity evaluation indexes searched and identified in the documents in the preset database;
and a final selection substep, which is used for adjusting the sequence according to the water resource bearing capacity evaluation index obtained in the coarse screening substep and according to the characteristics of the prisons in the target area, and selecting N indexes before the sequence, wherein N is more than or equal to 2.
6. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity based on the analysis of the composite system action relationship as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step of analyzing the evaluation result specifically comprises:
obtaining historical average data of target area
WhereinAn index value for a solution layer in the historical average data;
acquiring a bearing degree index value WESI of the comprehensive evaluation model,
bearing degree index value WESI and historical average data according to comprehensive evaluation modelCalculating the water resource bearing degree representing the water resource bearing degree:
wherein, WRCC is the bearing degree representing the bearing capacity of water resources.
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