CN102495975A - Lake nutrient source control technique and performance evaluation method - Google Patents
Lake nutrient source control technique and performance evaluation method Download PDFInfo
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- CN102495975A CN102495975A CN2011103946859A CN201110394685A CN102495975A CN 102495975 A CN102495975 A CN 102495975A CN 2011103946859 A CN2011103946859 A CN 2011103946859A CN 201110394685 A CN201110394685 A CN 201110394685A CN 102495975 A CN102495975 A CN 102495975A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a lake nutrient source control technique and a performance evaluation method. The performance evaluation method comprises the following steps: building a system dynamics model coupling a river basin resource-environment-an economic system, designing a river basin developing sight scheme, building an environmental social economic accounting matrix (ESAM) containing nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient accounts in the river basin and a unit nitrogen and phosphorus discharge performance evaluation system, namely an environmental price system, adjusting industrial structures according to the system, introducing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, simulating influence comprehensive analysis sight input data and model results of economy and environment caused by industrial restructuring, introducing a data envelopment analysis method, and determining optimal nitrogen and phosphorus reduction and economic-coordinated development schemes. The technique method provides basis for formulation of lake nutrient source reduction and area economic pattern prioritization schemes, forms an integrated lake nutrient nitrogen and phosphorus reduction technique integration system with goal-process-simulation-decision, achieves lake nutrient source control, and achieves a purpose of structural discharge reduction.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the resource environment management domain, a kind of performance evaluation method of studying different industry Different Industries lake nutrients nitrogen, phosphorus discharging of more specifically saying so is one of standard of the scheme of optimizing economic structure.
Background technology
The fresh water of accumulating in the lake is one of important water source of industrial and agricultural production and resident living water.But in recent years, China's water environment pollution problem is outstanding, and wherein lake eutrophication problem is day by day serious.At present, Chinese scholars generally believes that nitrogen, two kinds of nutrients of phosphorus are the principal elements that cause lake eutrophication, also is the needed esential nutrient of aquatic plants growth (metallographic bright 1995).Develop rapidly along with socioeconomic, the reasonable regulation and control problem of going into lake nitrogen phosphorus nutrition element becomes increasingly conspicuous, and has become the key factor that threatens aquatic ecosystem safety and national economy sustainable development.The regulation and control strategy of stern reality requirement nitrogen phosphorus is a target with the coordinated development of social economy and ecologic environment, under the prerequisite of sustainable development, makes necessary adjustment and planning.
Warp is the domestic and international patent of retrieval mechanism extensively, and all discovery is directed against lake nutrients nitrogen at present, phosphorus nutrition salt is cut down and the patent of economic equilibrium Analysis on development aspect.Retrieve application number 201010203939.X, application publication number CN 101866397A is called applying for a patent of " a kind of method of definite dominant influence factors of pollutant emission ".Its utilize gray scale association analysis and less Monitoring Data can the comprehensive evaluation pollutant emission and environmental economic system between main dependence; After having confirmed to influence the leading factor of all contaminations discharging; Can implement industrial structure optimization and upgrading effectively; The control industrial pollution to accomplish the task of energy-saving and emission-reduction, realizes regional sustainable development.And be that the research of fwaater resources protection and economic development provides referential thinking and method.But this patent is not strong to the susceptibility research specific aim of nitrogen phosphorus discharging to economic system, can not be in the lake the serious zone of nutrient laden, for the economic policy formulation scientific basis is provided quickly and efficiently.Simultaneously, this patent and the document of publishing do not relate to the method for formulating lake nutrients source control technology and performance evaluation as yet.
Lake nutrients source control technology that the present invention proposes and performance evaluation method are on the system dynamics model of basin resource-environment-economic system coupling and social economy's accounting matrix (ESAM) basis that the basin comprises nitrogen, phosphorus environment account; Set up nitrogen phosphorus PAS-Performance Appraisal; Analyze industry restructuring to socioeconomic influence through Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (CGE); Based on DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD (DEA) analysis-by-synthesis sight input data and model result, establish optimum economic restructuring scheme at last.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to formulate different industries lake nutrients PAS-Performance Appraisal; Seek to help the suitable economic structure that water environment is improved, be specially and formulate the industrial structure, industrial structure prioritization scheme and other the macroscopical strategical decision suggestion that meets economic development planning target, water resources rational use and water environment protection target.Finally formed target-process-simulate-make a strategic decision lake nutrients nitrogen, the control of phosphorus source and performance appraisal technical system into one, for green watershed construction provides science and technology support.
For achieving the above object, lake of the present invention nutrients source control technology and performance evaluation method may further comprise the steps:
S1 has made up the index system that the basin water environmental carrying capacity is calculated based on the flow process of driving-pressure-state-regulation and control-response, sets up the system dynamics model of basin resource-environment-economic system coupling, calculating watershed development carrying degree;
S2 sets up social economy's accounting matrix (ESAM) that the basin comprises nitrogen phosphorus discharging environment account, sets up nitrogen phosphorus PAS-Performance Appraisal;
S3 simulates industry restructuring to socioeconomic influence based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (CGE);
S4 establishes optimum nitrogen, phosphorus reduction and economic Coordination and Optimization Model based on DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD (DEA);
S5 makes comprehensive evaluation to the input of a plurality of schemes of drawing, the relative effectiveness of output-index data, uses method and approach that related administrative information is sought further improvement project, optimizes relative optimal case:
Wherein step S1 obtains the evaluation index data and comprises environmental capacity of water, water resource supply capacity.
Wherein step S2 obtains the evaluation index data and comprises that activity, commodity, consumption account and nitrogen phosphorus in different industries IO (input-output table) table reduce discharging data.
Step S3 wherein; Based on general CGE model; Social economy's accounting matrix (ESAM) of the environment account that obtains in the input S2 step, the model exogenous variable of setting industrial structure change on the basis of the sight that carrying degree in basin is analyzed, the simulation industry restructuring is to the influence of energy economy & environment.
Wherein step S5 obtains the evaluation index data and comprises sight input data and model result, input, the output data of each DMU (Decision Making Unit).One group of inputoutput data according to decision package estimates effectively to produce leading surface.
The invention provides and formulate lake drainage nitrogen, the source reduction of phosphorus nutrition salt and the technical method of Development of Economy scheme; Realized the integrated of environmental model and economic model, cut down planning for the lake drainage nitrogen and phosphorous nutrient science and technology support is provided, realize that the regional economy development reduces discharging target up to standard with nitrogen and phosphorous nutrient and coordinates to provide decision references information mutually.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is lake of the present invention nutrients source control technology and performance evaluation method flow diagram
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with Fig. 1, specific embodiments of the invention describes in further detail.Below be used to explain the present invention, but be not used for limiting scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram that the present invention carries out lake nutrients source control technology and performance evaluation.As shown in Figure 1, the present invention includes following steps:
S1; From environmental capacity of water, water resource supply capacity, industry restructuring is study subject; Made up the index system (table 1) of lake water environment nitrogen, phosphorus bearing capacity calculation based on the flow process of driving-pressure-state-regulation and control-response; Set up the system dynamics model calculating watershed development carrying degree of basin resource-environment-economic system coupling, develop the sight scheme based on the basin carrying degree present situation design basin of estimating:
Table 1 lake water environment nitrogen, phosphorus bearing capacity accounting index system
S2 sets up social economy's accounting matrix (ESAM) that the basin comprises the environment account.
Wherein, the establishment of ESAM comprises following steps:
S21, activity, commodity, consumption account in input combination IO (input-output table) table are set up macroscopical SAM (social account matrix);
S22 segments establishment industry SAM to the nitrogen and phosphorous nutrient discharging industry account of macroscopical SAM;
S23 adds on industry SAM framework with the relevant account of nitrogen phosphorus reduction of discharging regulation and control and sets up ESAM (environmental social account matrix);
S24 utilizes the RAS balanced algorithm that adjusted ESAM is carried out Balance Treatment.
S3; Based on Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (CGE); The environment account social economy accounting matrix (ESAM) that comprises nitrogen phosphorus discharging account that obtains among the input step S2 is set the model exogenous variable of industrial structure change on the basis of the sight that carrying degree in basin is analyzed, the simulation industry restructuring is to the influence of energy economy & environment.
S4 based on DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD (DEA) analysis-by-synthesis sight input data and model result, establishes optimum nitrogen, phosphorus reduction and Development of Economy scheme.Analysis-by-synthesis based on DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD (DEA) may further comprise the steps:
S41 is according to input, the output data of each DMU (Decision Making Unit) are judged whether it is that DEA is effective;
S42 estimates effectively to produce leading surface according to one group of inputoutput data of decision package;
S43 utilizes input, the output-index data of a plurality of schemes that seismic responses calculated goes out, and its relative effectiveness is made comprehensive evaluation;
S44 uses method and approach that related administrative information is sought further improvement project, optimizes relative optimal case.
Wherein: x
Ij---j decision variable is to the otal investment of i item input pointer, x
Ij＞0;
y
Ij---j decision variable is to the output total amount of i item output-index, y
Ij＞0;
i＝1，2，...，m；r＝1，2，...，s；j＝1，2，...，n。
If v
iExpression is to a kind of tolerance (or flexible strategy) of i item input pointer, u
iExpression is to a kind of tolerance (or flexible strategy) of r item output-index, then x
Ij, y
IjBe given data, can obtain v according to observation and prediction
iWith u
iBe variable corresponding to one group of weight coefficient:
V＝(v
1，v
2，...，v
m)
T
U＝(u
1，u
2，...，u
s)
T
Each decision package all has corresponding efficiency rating index:
S5 makes comprehensive evaluation to the input of a plurality of schemes of drawing, the relative effectiveness of output-index data, uses method and approach that related administrative information is sought further improvement project, optimizes relative optimal case.
The invention provides the source control of formulation lake drainage nitrogen, phosphorus nutrition salt and the technical method of performance appraisal scheme; Realized the integrated of environmental model and economic model; For the formulation of economic policies such as environmental tax and the direction of industry restructuring provide scientific basis, science and technology support is provided for place, nitrogen and phosphorous nutrient source, lake drainage cuts down planning.Realize that the regional economy development reduces discharging target up to standard with nitrogen and phosphorous nutrient and coordinates to provide decision references information mutually.
Claims (7)
1. lake nutrients source control technology and performance evaluation method is characterized in that may further comprise the steps:
S1 sets up the system dynamics model of lake drainage resource-environment-economic system coupling;
S2 sets up social economy's accounting matrix (ESAM) that the basin comprises environment account (nitrogen phosphorus discharging account), sets up nitrogen phosphorus discharging PAS-Performance Appraisal;
S3 introduces the CGE model, and the simulation industry restructuring is to the influence of energy economy & environment;
S4 introduces DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD;
S5 sets up control of nitrogen phosphorus source and Performance Evaluation System, proposes optimum industry restructuring scheme.
2. according to the said method of claim 1; It is characterized in that among the said step S1; Water environment nitrogen phosphorus load-bearing capacity, industry restructuring are study subject from typical lake; Flow process based on driving-pressure-state-regulation and control-response has made up basin water environment nitrogen phosphorus bearing capacity calculation and social economy's response regulation index system, sets up the system dynamics model of basin resource-environment-economic system coupling, calculating watershed development carrying degree.
3. according to the said method of claim 1, it is characterized in that utilizing the RAS balanced algorithm among the said step S2, the step of social economy's accounting matrix of establishment nitrogen phosphorus discharging account is following:
S21, activity, commodity, consumption account in combination different industries IO (input-output table) table are set up macroscopical SAM (social account matrix);
S22, to the nitrogen of macroscopical SAM phosphorus nutrition salt discharging industry account segment establishment industry SAM;
S23 adds with nitrogen phosphorus reducing discharging the relevant account of regulation and control on industry SAM framework, set up ESAM;
4. according to the said method of claim 1, its characteristic also is among the said step S2, based on ESAM, sets up different industries industry nitrogen phosphorus discharging PAS-Performance Appraisal.
5. method according to claim 1 is characterized in that among the said step S3, based on the CGE model, adjusted ESAM is carried out Balance Treatment, and lake nitrogen is gone in the simulation basin, the influence to economic growth is regulated and control in the phosphorus discharging.
6. according to the said method of claim 1, it is characterized in that among the said step S4, based on DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS METHOD (DEA) analysis-by-synthesis sight input data and model result.
7. according to the said method of claim 1, it is characterized in that among the said step S5, is that the industry restructuring of double goal, the management of environmental tax fee collecting reduce discharging scheme with nitrogen, phosphorus reduction and economic growth, provides survey region industry restructuring suggestion.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN108805471A (en) * | 2018-08-21 | 2018-11-13 | 北京师范大学 | Evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of hybrid system interactively |
| CN109101707A (en) * | 2018-07-25 | 2018-12-28 | 广州资源环保科技股份有限公司 | A method of for simulating Shallow Lake Ecosystems model |
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| CN102034214A (en) * | 2010-12-20 | 2011-04-27 | 上海勘测设计研究院 | Health evaluation method for eutrophic lakes |
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| CN102034214A (en) * | 2010-12-20 | 2011-04-27 | 上海勘测设计研究院 | Health evaluation method for eutrophic lakes |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109101707A (en) * | 2018-07-25 | 2018-12-28 | 广州资源环保科技股份有限公司 | A method of for simulating Shallow Lake Ecosystems model |
| CN108805471A (en) * | 2018-08-21 | 2018-11-13 | 北京师范大学 | Evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of hybrid system interactively |
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Application publication date: 20120613 |